still stand, theirs for instance, $50.9 billion. i was talking to the head of investments for california regions they said the trick is to be strategic about where you put your money because you have to do it for the long haul. >> thank you for watching "power lunch" we appreciate your time today. >> and "closing bell" starts right now. happy halloween. under a bit of pressure on this final day of october but still looking to lock in big gains for the month. this is the make or break hour for your money i'm sara eisen the market, down 89 points or so, the low of the day was down 274, off that. down .6% on the s&p 500. it's been a tale of mixed sectors, energy the best performing, up more than 1%. that's it in terms of sectors. communication services and technology under the most pressure the nasdaq down 1%

ten year note yield above 4% check out the score card for october, the major averages. the dow pacing for the best monthly gain since 1976. a ton of market calls coming up the next few weeks, including the fed meeting, big decision on wednesday. and friday the jobs report see if there's any slow down evident. the midterm elections early next week and we also get october cpi toward the back half of next week next on the show we'll be joined by national bureau of economic research chair john lipsky, the group that determines if we're in a recession plus talk to former twitter coo, ali rowghani about expectations for the musk era but let's break down the action with mike santoli. what are you watching on the

final day of the month where everyone is talking seasonality. >> it's an understandable themes there are clear historical patterns i would say today is a lot of month end trimming after a big run higher of course pre-fed apprehension as well is at work look at the s&p 500, we were up 90 points on this index on friday, giving back less than a third of it at this point. just for curiosity sake, where was the s&p 500 right before the last fed meeting in september, september 21st, it was right about there. actually about 30 points lower but in a similar position except there hitting it on the way down, this time we rallied up into it as the market once again seems to want to believe it's in tune with what the fed is likely to say on wednesday. the earnings picture is quieter today. you can generalize about the character of reaction to beats and misses if you look at this from bank of america. the companies that miss on both top and bottom lines this

quarter having an extremely adverse stock reaction this is the relative performers of the stocks that miss on top and bottom line. this is really effected by a handful of huge movers like meta going down 24% the day after results, microsoft down 19%. it does show you there's not a lot of patience as we're all looking for evidence of slow down for when these companies come up short. other times it happened, late 2011 here you have in the 2001, '2 period that was another bear market those that beat, average level of outperformance, 2%. shows sensitivity to signs that the earnings story is petering out. >> tech under pressure today in a bigger way than the rest of the market is that just higher yields >> it could be that. it also could be that they did, last week, apple in particular is what's down today so apple had, you know, massively outperformed last week a very positive reaction to its

results and that to me is driving most of the headline in tech >> yeah. also seeing some weakness, alphabet is lower again, that is lower. >> there's definitely not much on a month end basis of bottom fishing instinct you have the tax loss selling and not let me show owning it at the end of october >> the dow on pace for the best october ever, best month since 1976 but will the recent strength carry over into the final two months of the year let's bring in samir on one side of the debate and jim on the other. so samir, the question is, did october kill the bear market what do you think? >> no we don't think so. we think the trend is lower, valuations are at best fair. and we think the market could easily chop isideways into year end with more down side risk

than upside risk >> why >> the fed still raising interest rates if they go from 75 to 50, that doesn't change what they're doing they're still tightening policy. people are also confusing the rate side for the balance sheet side because quantitative tightening goes in the background if the fed does nothing you continue to have the balance sheet unwind and all the work we've seen basically suggests it wasn't the zero rate that led to overvalued markets, a lot of it had to do with the fedex panding their balance sheet at a fast clip now that's working in reverse, clearly it's going to have a negative impact. >> it doesn't get air time the balance sheet tightening thing jim, you disagree. you've been positive for a long time and you're saying so into year end, next year? >> i am. i look at the s&p 500 now lower than 70% of the time since 1990. i look at sentiment that's very washed out i think nervous nellies have had

ample opportunity to sell various times this year. the sellers that are antsy are probably gone. and the fed policy is unsustainable. we're seeing cracks all over the place, certainly declines in inflation and real economic growth and other liquidity problems emerging. also, sara what i found when i looked back to the 1980s is that the ten year yield has led the fed on every tightening cycle. it peaks out before the fed is done often time the fed keeps tightening and the ten year stops. so i think the bond market is close to blinking. and even if the fed continues i think the stocks might be responding to that already >> i don't know, jim, the two year is back to 450 today. >> well, yeah. but i'm talking about the ten

year yield that tends to lead the fed. the ten year yield rose at 433 intraday, it might go up a little more, maybe four and a quarter it's going to peak out if it stops there, and i think it will, the fed might continue to lift the rates. in lifting the rates, the fed is lowering inflation fear and lowering recession fear. if inflation fears the dominant force we have more bond sellers than buyers. if recession fear rises we get more bond buyers than sellers and i think we're getting close to that. >> sameer, what's your take? you don't think the fed is going to switch policy paths any time soon >> it just seems premature when you look at longer rates and historical relationship to gdp or inflation, history tolls you higher rates are warranted trying to bring inflation down just to get real rates into positive territory, right now

you have to raise them to the 7 to 8% range. that's not the case. i think it's hard to see the ten year pushing up 4 1/2, 5%, especially if that's where the short end of the curve is going to especially based on where we see earnings going, which is next year's 200, so you see negative growth in 2023, you're just not getting paid to take the risk. it's not that we don't see better days ahead, our target next year is 4400, but it wouldn't surprise me if it's in the second half of the year after things fall into place. >> it raises the question about earnings risk here outside of tech it's been good as santoli just laid out but we're about to go into our fourth 75 basis points hike, what's that going to do to earnings next year >> i think the economy is going to be real sluggish next year,

zero growth for a good part of the year and earnings come down from their peaks that they achieve overall. but i think the 34markets reflected that i looked at the 12 previous recessions we had post war history, the average decline in the stock market prior to the first month of each of those recessions off cycle high was 5.5%, the median decline before the recession starting we were off 25%, five times greater than the median response even if if we have a recession next year, i think a lot of that is already in the stock market if we are headed for recession the rate structure has got to stop and probably reverse here pretty soon. i think the risk has been over heat, that's brought us down if that risk quits, i think the market is going to rally, even if there's slower growth close to even a mild recession. >> when you say it's in the market already, the s&p is down

19% year to date, nasdaq down about 30%, the whole thing has been multiple contraction, though, jim. we haven't seen earnings expectations fall off a cliff anywhere into recessionary territory, have we >> look back to 1990 if you look at the s&p 500 over forward one year earnings estimates. they tended to move up andn almost together except for this year this year the market came down, 20, 25% and forward one year numbers are still pretty close to their highs that's my point is i think the market's already discounting a pretty good flattening or even mild decline in earnings it's not discounting a deep and prolonged recession like '08, '09, '10 >> sameer, final word, if you are bearish and you don't think this is the end of the bear market >> we would continue to participate and do so in a

dynamic way. all year we've said on the oversold pullbacks in june, when you get to 3500, 3600, make sure you're buying the larger cap, energy and technology and health care names on the way back up, if you're lucky to get in the low 4s, make sure you're trimming the international equities, the cyclicals like financials, industrials, discretionary and reits. there's a lot of opportunities in the market and you want to take advantage of both sides. >> got it. thank you both very much for making your cases, we appreciate it. >> thanks. this week's fed meeting, clearly top of mind for investors as wall street looks for clues on the health of the economy and the fed's rate policy up next we're joined by nber chairman john lipsky dow down 157, energy is the only sector that's up right now you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc.

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we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why?

our internet isn't ideal. so let us focus on the how. my dad made the brillant move to get us t-mobile home internet. -which... we have to share our signal with the entire neighborhood. yeah, now we do some weird things to get our speeds. well... i'm up. -c'mon kids. this sucks. well if you just switch maybe you don't have to be vampires. whoa... -okay, yikes. oh sorry, i wasn't thinking. we, uh, don't really use the v word. that's kind of insensitive. we prefer pro-lunar. yes, much better. wall street is bracing for a barrage of potentially moving events including the fed's decision and the jobs report this week and next week midterm elections and the latest cpi inflation number joining us is john lipsky. it's good to have you. first on the fed. >> nice to be here. >> 75 basis points is baked in

the cake do you expect fed chair powell to lay the ground work for a smaller hike in december >> it's certainly possible but i think it's going to depend on -- be very data dependent i think we'll continue to insist on that approach right now when we look at the fed fund future markets what the market seems to be anticipating in terms of future fed action and look at what the likely outcome, the likely course of inflation is going to be, it's plausible that the current e expectations which calls for fund rate at 4% or more. could seem to be to most investor consistent with a sustainable rate in a period of declining inflation. in other words, it's possible, quite possible that investors are going to be expecting the

fed to start laying the ground work for how they will decide going forward. i suspect it's a little early for the fed to be explicitin this regard, however. >> by all accounts the market is signaling that they will slow down and that inflation will come down, and yet, i know we've been in a weak quiet period the last week but the fed commentary has not really signalled they're ready to slow things down or they're convinced that inflation is coming down in a meaningful way. >> certainly the fed, it's been obvious for some time but the fed started late, under estimated the force of inflation, needed to gain credibility and to convince investors that they were serious about raising rates and acting on inflation at this time, it's not obvious that they need to be a lot tougher than is already anticipated, for example,

through the dot plots. given what markets seem to expect is happening with the economy. in other words, nonetheless, because of the risk of surprises, i wouldn't expect that the fed will do much more than insist on data dependency going forward and insist on the seriousness in hitting their longer term inflation targets. >> on that data dependence, do you expect the next jobs report to show signs of weakness? we've been looking for it and it hasn't shown up in a big way in the jobs numbers or wage numbers. >> you're correct. certainly the growth in employment seems to be consistent with a tendency toward at least trend growth or a little bit above trend nonetheless, the inars if you will of the employment data seem to suggest there's a slight slow down or slow down under way in the force of new hiring. >> so let me ask you a question.

even the fed has said that the monetary policy hikes hit with a lag. so we're going to feel the brunt of the impact on economic weakness, say, next year we've had four jumbo sized rate hikes. what does that lag look like to you? how many months and how severe do you think of a slow down we're going into >> in the old days we would call that a $64 question. certainly the structure of the economy has changed in many ways over the past couple of decades and the notion that we've seen that the ability of the monetary authority is to anticipate and to affect the outcomes has been different from what it's been in the past and, therefore, continually looking back to saying this is what happened in the past recessions et cetera, is certainly useful but consider that definitive i think is far from it. the important point i was trying to make is right now the

fed's -- the anticipated fed position consistent with the dot plots seems to be consistent with what markets expect is necessary to keep inflation -- to keep inflation in the medium term under control and keep inflation expectations under control. but there are a lot of uncertainty and a lot of big risks in both directions in that outlook. so i think the fed is going to want to -- i think investors would expect them, to continue to insist on their seriousness about hitting long term inflation and their willingness and ability to react to changes in the economy in other words, this is no time to be categorical about what you're going to do, but to make clear what's important >> i also want to ask you, john, because of your background at the imf and global economics, clearly you're following what's happening around the world >> yes.

>> and that is central banks also having to raise rates and it's causing problems. the dollar is super strong and fed chair powell has a dual mandate that is domestic i wonder how much investors are right to read into moves like bank of canada going less than expected or australia going less than expected or bond market moves in the uk causing nervousness. how much do you think that should factor in? >> certainly it's going to factor into the economic outlook. the risks certainly in europe to their economic growth is different in detail than what we have here in the u.s., self-sufficient in energy, europe relying on imported energy the downturn -- the risks of a downturn are more severe there, and yet the actual measured inflation is higher. so we can see the point here, the easy point here is that all central banks are facing similar

challenges but with very important differences in detail. the main risk to the u.s. economy is much slower growth outside the u.s. that will influence both demand and the competition for imports in the u.s. market. >> there's this idea we won't go into recession if europe does. can that really happen >> yes, of course. there's substantial difference in the underlying sources of challenges in both economies europe faces not just a short-term but a medium-term challenge if there's been a step change in the future cost of their energy that is going to have a role in their future competitiveness. in other words, another way of saying it, that the dollar's rise may be temporary and it may be exaggerated, but that's not immediately obvious. it may be a re-pricing of

investors' anticipation of relative economic performance in the future this is an exceptionally uncertain and complex environment. and as i say, the challenges facing europe, the challenges facing china, facing japan, are all substantially different but they're serious. >> that's why we turn to you in environments like this, john thank you for joining me appreciate the commentary. >> any time. it's always a pleasure. let's show you what's happening right now, the dow down about 100 points, recovered a bit. s&p down a little more than half a percent. communication services and tech are down you have the russell 2000 small caps outperforming today up .2%. the meme stocks having a good day, amc up 2%, gamestop up 1% nothing like the crazy meme trading but still it's up. after the break we'll tell you

about the perfect name making a big stealth move today. and coming up, the former coo of twitter is going to join us we'll ask what he thinks of elon musk taking over and what changes are anticipated. newell brands falling after a downgrade at barclays and earnings last week that pointed to a decline in sales. we'll be right back.

we know most recent spacs have been less than stellar, but an exception today we have an imperfect one it's our stealth mover of the day. it is call the perfect corporation. and it makes apps that allow consumers to virtually try on beauty products. the stock was having a good debut after merging with

providence acquisition corporation but gave up all the gains throughout the session and is slightly lower. it seems like everything that everyone was talking about this weekend ontwitter was twitter. elon musk asking if he should bring back vine which twitter bought in 2012 before shutting it down in 2016. musk ball and adviser jason tweeting a poll to see how much users might pay to be verified in the platform. and musk has dissolved the nine person board, leaving him in charge of twitter. joining us is ali, who left the company a few years ago. i don't know where to begin. there's news on this developing story at all times with a new tweet from musk. what do you make so far of his takeover >> well, it's kind of a fascinating story. you have one of the most prominent communication platforms in the world being

taken over by the world's richest man who also uses the platform and is doing all sorts of attention grabbing and controversial things with his -- you know, with his platform. and i think time will tell in terms of the changes he makes to the platform the improvements he makes to the product and how he's able to turn around the performance of the company and service the huge amount of debt he's taken on, et cetera it'll be a great story to watch over the next few years. >> i think the question we're wondering about, it's a private company now but obviously still a huge business that we follow is whether -- whether he can make it into a better business, right? 90% of twitter ads, i don't have to tell you, of twitter revenues are from advertising what's going to happen to that if there are changes to content moderation, as he has implied he wants to do by making it the free speech town hall for the world? >> well, i think that whatever

changes elon may have in store for twitter and other additional montization streams, subscriptions or people paying for verifications, whatever, there are probably an endless number of ways to make money using the twitter platform i think advertising is going to be a significant revenue driver forever. and, you know, whether it's 90% or one day 70% we'll see but i think it's going to be a big deal for advertisers to want to be active on the platform, it has to be a -- you know, a clean, well-lit space and with clear rules about what's allowed and not allowed and what kind of speech is tolerated versus not i think it didn't surprise me despite all the claims he made beforehand that he's now set up a content moderation board i think he would be smart not to be the -- you know, the face of content moderation globally himself. i think dy defusing that responsibility and getting good

advice as far as what to do is a smart move and headed in that direction. i think advertising is going to remain critical. twitter has to be a safe place with rules about what kind of speech is tolerated and not tolerated. my prediction is it doesn't change a ton we'll see. >> you think that what the company has been doing has been satisfactory on that front >> i'm not going to say it's been satisfactory but i think the rules they set up are largely reasonable i think -- my prediction is that the rules that are ultimately set up won't differ markedly from the rules set up today. let's not forget 10, 12 years ago, twitter was -- it didn't have rules you could say really anything. you know, and then over time we started to see the problems with that you know, when, you know, people like isis were sharing photographs of beheadings on twitter. is that free speech?

is that something we want on the platform it's not illegal to share a picture of a beheading but is that something you want on the platform there were really some extreme cases that led us to create certain rules for what was tolerated or not and well after i left that's when the political side of things got much more heated. but i think there will be rules, and there should be rules. advertisers and users will both demand them. and, you know, they may be a little different than they are today, but my prediction is i don't think the rules, per se, are going to differ markedly from what's in place today >> it's interesting, the beheading obviously that's the hellscape and musk said he doesn't want it to be a hellscape but some gray areas around anti-semitism now which has really tweeted up around use of the n word which lebron james was tweeting about this weekend. hate speech and how you define

that like what, it's hard -- it's such a gray area you think it can be determined by a content moderation panel? >> i think that's a -- it's a great question there are tons of gray areas when it comes to speech and tons of hard decisions to make. it's a hard issue. the thing i'm heartened by is some of the comments that elon made prior to closing the acquisition were sweeping gen genjen general sagss about peacspeech d what he stood for and didn't stand for. he sees it as a more complicated problem than implied previously which i think is a real positive i also say one other thing, the tone that he brings to the platform himself as a user on the platform is very important that's one area i hope it's a bit better i think he's reacted to certain

things -- he's trolled people all the time on twitter. i think he thinks it's funny, maybe it is. but the tone he brings and the tone he sets is important. in terms of the kind of norms that the platform has, there are rules and there are norms, and i think that both of them hopefully can be improved over time, and, you know, i think he's an example for how the platform should be used and shouldn't be used. again we'll see how that all evolves. but i do have some concerns in that area. >> right he tweeted the conspiracy theory around paul pelosi and then erased it this weekend. >> right >> when you were there, i'm sure you guys have been looking at this idea of charging subscriptions for twitter, whether it's a blue check mark, which is rumored right now, the verge had a report on it, or otherwise for usage. why could twitter never do that and is there an opportunity for musk, who appears to be looking

into that. >> i was there through 2014, up until that time the advertising business was absolutely on fire. as was our data licensing business so it wasn't the highest priority yoursitems for us to fd ways to diversify the revenue stream we were trying to build out the product suite to make advertisers very, very happy with using twitter that was the period until probably 2017/18 that twitter was riding a huge wave in advertising. so it's only recently, partly driven by macro economics and pull back on digital advertising that the business needs to diversify the revenue stream keep in mind, facebook is many times bigger than twitter and it's been sustained by digital advertising almost entirely the whole way. so it's not like there's something wrong or the platform can't continue to grow with

digital advertising being a major driver as i said earlier, i predict that doesn't change. but, you know, look, a new owner, fresh ideas, an amazingly competent human being running the platform now, he should look at everything. but i think at the time when i was there, it wasn't really necessary because there was so much head room as far as the digital advertising revenue stream was concerned >> ali rowghani thank you for sharing your views. >> my pleasure. >> formerly twitter coo. still ahead, what's weighing on apple's shares today. which are pulling back after a strong month of gains. check out the pot stocks, seeing plenty of green today with reported comments around chuck schumer on the safe b banking act. look at canopy up 21%. they have been big losers, we

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wall street is buzzing about this weekend's election runoff in brazil. and the impact it could have on emerging markets and your money, details straight ahead join us tomorrow for cnbc your money

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what is wall street buzzing about? brazil, the country's exchange moving slightly higher while the ten year bond yield is rising, the currency is strengthening against the dollar as well the ewz that trades here in the u.s., is up. what happened, lula da silva won the runoff, beating jair bolsonaro by less than 2%. and marking a return to the presidency from lula who was

leader from 2003 to 2010 two things invests are watching. first it's not clear if bolsonaro will bow out gracefully he hasn't spoken yet and he has talked about refusing to accept the results of the vote. so some uncertainty there. and then on policy, investors did like the pro-business pro-growth bolsonaro who many compared to president donald trump, lula on the other hand is leftist, yet to clarify the economic plans and pick his cabinet members. look at petrobras, bolsonaro has been moving to privatize it. lula is calling for the opposite, to take control, which could put shareholders at risk but wall street notes this morning say there's a chance that lula moves to the center given how deeply divided the country is after the election.

hsbc said use this to add to the weakness in brazil exty exposure and a fiscal plan, wall street watching the elections in the next few days as a proxy for spending if they are more centrist it could suggest spending limitations even as lula is vowing to boost social spending. one thing we learned from liz truss in the uk, investors are in charge and there's a limit on spending governments need to provide clear and credible plans in this era of rising rates and raging inflation. brazil will be one to watch on that front when we come back, the top retail analyst on wall street, j.p. morgan's matt boss reveals his four top retail picks for the holiday season fears of an iphone production cut when we take you inside the market zone.

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so you won't miss an opportunity we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. cnbc markets commentator mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and we have steve and matt boss we'll pick it up with the broader market the dow is down about 100 or so points, pulling back on the final day of the month, nothing extreme. s&p 500 lower, every sector down except for energy right now, mike santoli, as we close out overall a strong month question is what happens next. >> big question. obviously there's a lot of focus as you mentioned earlier on the

seasonal patterns. thought it would keep people from getting too negative this time of year, mitigate some of the pullbacks for now. today it's the end of a strong month and before a fed meeting you get markets pulling themselves back into balanced footing, which in this case would be trimming back a little bit on stocks. yields are inching higher. the dollar is getting a little bit of support essentially it's a little bit of a reversal of all the moves we saw today. but again, up something like 8% for the month of october in the s&p still. >> wanted to point out other charts for the month of october. bitcoin up 3.8% for the month, not as strong of a rebound as the stock market but the dollar down half a percent. i think that's the big reason stocks were able to rally. and gold down again. what is this, seven months in a row lower for gold it basically goes down no matter what the market or dollar is doing lately wondering how you're putting

those cross currents together and what the correlations look like. >> from august 1st for the next couple of months real yields, inflation adjusted yields were up a lot that really did seem to put gold back on its heels, bitcoin hasn't been able to find a good source of support until recently in all of that that kind of links up part of it, you have a tighter fed, a restrictive policy, yields are starting to give some kind of value for longer-term bondholders. the dollar, it was just obviously taking a breather after an incredibly strong run it captures everything that we expect between united states growth differentials versus europe and the rest of the world. obviously farther along in the tightening cycle and might go higher than anywhere else in the world. it's boiled down to the dollar index, at least for now and that's right now below highs but not much. >> that's the key to watch on wednesday. if you think that the fed is

going to pause, pullback on its hikes, watch the dollar, that it would sell off, if not it might go higher. that was the interpretation of the ecb last week they were going to pair it down a little bit and the euro got a little weaker on that apple, a drag on the dowel and tech stops following reports that a covid outbreak in a china plant could slow out put by 40%. how could this affect revenue growth, it's a crucial quarter >> this is, by my count, the third report that we've got since the iphone14 launched last month that either they're delaying, pulling back on production,cutting production. and so far none of those reports panned out, because you have to keep in mind, jim crammer and i talked to tim cook about this last week, how complex the supply chain is, because there's a shutdown at one facility or

one facility is considering pulling back on production doesn't mean they can't move that production to other parts that's been the story with apple and the supply chain in china and their dependency on china throughout these lockdowns all year they've been able to shift around to prioritize iphone production specifically and more so, the iphone 14 pro line, which is selling better and the demand is much higher for. it's hard to put too much in this, but at the same time, sara, this is the most important facility that makes iphones. some people predict it makes up to 50% of all iphones shipped globally so if this place does shutdown more significantly that can hurt things but right now what china has been doing and fox con has been doing is putting the workers in a closed loop they're still working, they're just locked in the facility, which is why we've been hearing these awful stories about people running away and escaping to get out of the lockdowns, sara. >> it's just crazy to hear about

that shanghai disney as well being locked in. thank you steve kovac. apple under pressure today retail caps a solid october. down today but outperforming the s&p 500 for the month. a surprise turn around, the department store stocks like macy's nordstroms, kohl's. joining me for his holiday forecast, matt boss, just ranked number one retail analyst for the ninth time congratulations on that, matt. what does the top ranked retail analyst say is the top ranked retail stock right now what's your favorite >> thanks, sara, great to be back we outlined today what we're calling our core four, value and convenience, dollar stores and off pricers, dollar general, tj max, two top picks there the global brands it's active and casual

the largest trend out of the pandemic we think lulu lemon between now and year end into next year and nike we think is a turn around story as we move into '23. >> getting pushback from client osthose two in if particular you and the street have been bullish on nike and lulu for a long time and lately both are coming under pressure. >> we are -- our work on lieu l lulu i think the momentum continues to be there, they have a sweet spot with health care and wellness, and as people return to work, the casualization is a much larger picture trend. nike, obviously the exposure, the size and scale and their capacity tied to the ocean freight and the category that they operate in put them in a tough spot as the supply chain issues, as a result of covid i think it'll be a quarter or two in terms of cleaning up this

inventory. but on the other side i think the margin profile, two changes, greater digital penetration, doubled in scale digital penetration at nike and a better wholesale footprint as they cut 50% of their partners. i think nike and lulu better companies on the other side. go back to the value convenience, off pricers have invi inventory and others will be in a more rational position which sets up nicely value and convenience. >> lulu has definitely outperformed, this month up 17%, down 16% for the year. nike down 40%. what about the turn around stories, no shortage of turn arounds in retail. how do you spot a winner >> what we're doing is we look to '23, i think you want sectors with larger total addressable markets on the other side, solid management teams and really i had owe sin cat ik

opportunities. dollar tree with a top management team coming on from dollar general, i think sets up very well from a tangible opportunity in '23 i think in the off price space you have burlington, the turn around growth story. and third, as you think about across the larger picture space in value and convenience, 5 below i think is another beneficiary of disruption. >> really quickly. what assumption do you make about consumer spending into next year on these stocks? >> i think it's going to be a solid holiday for apparel and footwear modeling 5% growth that is up against 18% a year ago. that's a 23% two-year stack. i think you'll have winners and losers we're taking a selective stance into next year i think low end, look, the demand for low end workers continues to exceed the supply we're not as negative on the low end as '22 was the story it's the middle. you could see some reversion

within middle income i think that's where value becomes more important that's why you want to stick with value, convenience, off price winners, dollar stores and best in class brands. >> we have to leave it there thank you for joining me. >> great to be back. as we head into the close what do you see? >> solidly mixed a little advantage for advancing, no big deal new highs versus lows, been monitoring this. fewer new lows at the october low versus june low. it's been neck and neck here keeping an eye on that the volatility index, rebuilt a little bit, that's a monday effect mostly. but also of course we have the fed, the election, the jobs number lots of reason to stay elevated. >> as we hang into the close, look at the dow. breaking a six week stretch, down to 133 points but it looks like we end the month up 14%

best monthly performance since january 1976 that is your statistic of the day. s&p 500 going out with a gain of 8% for the month down three quarters of a percent on the close nasdaq gain for the month about half of that, 4% lower by 1%. that does it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow everyone. now to over time with scott wapner >> sarah, thank you. welcome to overtime i'm scott wapner we are just getting started here at the new york stock exchange in just a bit i'll speak to one of america's top ranked financial advisers on where your money is likely to hit the best in the months ahead. and we have breaking news in the semiconductors we begin with the talk of the tape best month for the dow since