we're at the minus 20% level in the s&p right now. we were also there before the sent meeting the september meeting was not he wanted to club the markets over the head and say things have to go lower >> all right well we start tomorrow and we'll see what happens i'll see you then. that is mike santoli with his last word. "fast money" begins now. right now on "fast," new covid lockdowns in china tourists are trapped, resorts shut as cases spike and in parts of wu hath and beijing and jung jo, new curves are in place as the zero covid push adding to the fear that the country is uninvestable for american business plus president biden bashing big oil set to call for a windfall profit tax on energy giants. is this just empty ahead of the next week's election and tilla fertitia taking a stake in wynn. what is the next move. we'll break that down.

i'm melissa lee and this is "fast money. on the desk tonight tim, karen, dan and guy. and tonight we start off with the latest covid crack down in china. shanghai disney shutting down as new cases spike. visitors stranded there unable to leave until they present a negative covid test. in macau, they were on lockdown after a dealer tested positive a single dealer. the latest curb comes as china doubles down on the zero covid policy and what will it mean for the country's economy and what possible ripple effects could i have closer to home. after president xi seemed his pow. >> the idea that zero covid could be more stringent and for morsefully in place and here we are. so what do you think. >> and the sense was once power was recemented, it was a chance to alleviate some of the tension.

if you look at how emerging markets, which are 36, 37% china are trading, they're making fresh 25-year lows relative to the s&p. so i know we're going to talk so someone who is an expert on china. so the headlines to me on china crackdowns are getting kind of old and i think if you look at airlines, they are breaking out through this it is a kind of day where airlines get destroyed and they didn't and if you think about the k casinos, i'm trying to look through that i just see a lot of companies marked down by two-thirds and as if you think about china exposure, you have to evaluate that growth multiple is priced into your stock. >> covid lockdowns are the latest headline but there is the political unknown to layer on top of all of this karen, how do you think about it do you look through or is it still murky on the other side when you look through. >> it is murky for me. are they investable, yes, at

moment once bitten or twice bitten, thrice shy and so i just -- there are so many -- so many things that you could point to that make it uninvestable but it is right from tim, when things go from terrible to just bad and that is where you make a lot of money and even for names like alibaba, versus something like a starbucks and nike with growtht. there is no clarity there either >> and it is just kind of insane that we're talking about this towards the end of 2022 when you think about that gdp print that china had just below 4% and at this point we're thinking that china getting back to mid to high single-digits gdp would be an engine for the global economy when you think about kind of the last three years or so and then you think about the strength of the dollar, to tims point about emerging market. and last week we were talking about the down draft that we saw

in chinese equities. maybe that is the capitulation and i left last monday buying calls in fsi, looking out to december and but now the fxi is making new lows so you say to yourself, unless your going to do things with defined risk, it is hard to think about. and you mentioned, mel, the geopolitical potential and we think about some of the examples of how u.s. multi-nationals had to act with the situation in europe as it related to russian market when they invaded ukraine. if there is anything that went on with taiwan over the next few years, they've set a bit of an example here that i think would be hard to step back from. >> there is two ways of looking at this. that is the short-term and the long-term. the short-term, to tim's point if things go from terrible to less terrible, that could mean a rally. in long-term, do you not want to be invested in populous quickly growing economy out there? >> love that you're wearing the other nor halloween, by the way.

as tim is as well. boo, exactly and karen, rocking the great white lyrics is just tremendous. and it is all about time frame and we talked about on october 24th, a week ago alibaba traded down to 58 and the fxi made a 17-year low today. and we said trading opportunity. i'll stand by that the stock traded up close to 70 two days later and we've seen since this time two years ago, boo again when alibaba was a $320 stock you've probably seen 10, 11, 12, 25% to 50% bounces in the name despite it continues to make all-time lows. so i think we're set up for that and mary over the weekend had an article saying now is a great entry point. she's watching cnbc's "fast money" for a name. i think you buy these stocks for a trade here. >> i look at a taiwan semi which is trading as if it is a china

tech company and i think there is a lot of geopoliticals, some of the headlines we'll continue to see on the cyberspace, on the semiconductor and tech infrastructure but i also just think there are times, and i remember this as an re investor, people will say why do i need to invest in emerging marketing and i think that is where we are right now i think invest ago way from the index is how you made money in the last couple of years and those are opportunities. as the asset classes look over sold here and the dollar looks way over bought. i think there are opportunities. >> let's get more reaction to the lockdowns from david riddle. he's telling clients to short china. so david, is this a short-term view and i'm wondering what your long-term view is. because some might say in ten years or in five years we're going to look back and think this is a tremendous opportunity. >> i think you have a couple of headwinds right now. first of all, the u.s. listed

chinese names, i think they're still under pressure you have a lot of issues in washington about audits an those companies have not been resolved so i think that is an issue with u.s. listed chinese names today. but i think the bigger issue with china is what happens if they invade taiwan if they act like the u.s. state department is now saying, on taiwan, within this decade, you know, you've got to look at the far side of that if you really want to be an owner of these things and i don't see that length. now the china urbanization story is great the chinese consumer story is solid. china will be a well run economy going forward. but for an outside equity investor, i do see right now i would find other ways to play it around the region. >> what are your odds of china invading taiwan. >> i think they're high. i've been a long believer that

they've told us again and again they're going to take back taiwan and they're going to do it. >> very high, like an 80% chance because it is one of the most populous countries in the world, one of the fastest growing economies in the world, because of this chance what is that chance? >> 80% likely that in the next 15 years >> 80% in the next 15 years? >> yeah. you can't really time that i just -- i don't know there will be a build up to it and a fallout afterwards. >> we've been talking china together for a long time define what has changed. is it xi jinping's cemented power or are they cutting allocation in half because big global institutions don't want to be there. what is changing your view >> xi getting this third term and showing this unhalting rise to power and focusing on the zero covid policy. that is a risk that i think we

could trade around the zero covid policy but it is showing that you that beijing is willing to do anything to enforce their policy and their views. and then seeing what happened with russia and ukraine, where the west did not send boots on the ground and chinese are looking at the restrictions and sanctions on russia and saying, we could survive that for eight or ten years all right. we'll put that in our calculus i just think it is a rough time right now for people thinking about investing in equity in china. >> it is karen thanks for being on. how much do you think the biden's tough stance, particularly the chips, plays floor this and what do you think the response will be from china? >> i think it is a big deal. and it is i have comprehensive ban on slowing chip expert exports to china and aimed at slowing down the growth of the semiconductor industry i suspect and i think this will happen sooner rather than later, that china will choose to weapon rare earths exports the same way

they have the past china is the source of something like 80% or 90% of the rare earths around the world and they could simply halt the export of those rare earths and say, hey, sure you could have raw earths you want but you have to build your factory this china. and that is actually -- that is a strong move they could make. >> you're actually recommended two of the rarest companies. >> yeah. empty materials and the one in australia, these are both goodal turnive ways, sources for rare earths i suspect you'll hear about this sooner rather than later think they were waiting until after the political meetings and i think you'll hear about it in the next couple of weeks, that rare earths are on export control out of china and that is good for the other plays. >> we talk to you, david, about an emerging market, but i'm wonder if you have to advise investors how to think about u.s. multi-national business in

kl china, how do we think about that revenue whether it be a starbucks, or a nike if you're saying that investors at large should avoid china entirely because of this 80% chance of china invading taiwan in the next 15 years how should we look at that revenue stream of multi-national companies. >> well let's look at what happened for u.s. operations in russia when they invaded ukraine. they shut down all of the cafes and fast food spots and then local person took them over and relaunched them. so i think you're going to see the same thing but in between now and some action on taiwan, you're going to continue to see pressure from beijing on u.s. operations i wouldn't want to be starbucks or apple on the ground in china or tesla on the ground in china. the same way i didn't want to be jeep, which had their operations taken from them and walmart who is always faced excess regulator scrutiny in favor of domestic competitors. it is -- this is not going it be

a very friendly time for u.s. operations in china. i think you have to discount them and discount them by a lot. >> if not china, then which market out there. >> well let's look at brazil in the wake of the new election i think it is hard for lula to govern but he think that is better than the uncertainty that we had two or three weeks ago before the runoff. and look at indonesia. they are a well positioned, very well run country, largest muslim democracy in the world has gone through lots of peaceful transfers of power and has a lot of energy and a big enough economy and society to be useful as an investment in the universe so indonesia is a a winner and brazil is one to keep an eye on. >> david, thank you. guy, how should we think about s&p 500 in china >> well, i love david's wine glasses, but 15 years is a little excessive for me. i can't even do the math on what

i'll be by that point. but this time last week we played a game what are your biggest concerns going into 2022 and across the board we see geopolitical and we mentioned russia/ukraine and china/taiwan which continues to bubble up that is a concern. and one of the points that i've made incorrectly is names like apple would fall victim to this if something were to crop up there is a level -- that is what we call in the business a tail risk so maybe 15% chance of that happening. but that 15% chance for a name like apple, i don't want to use the word catastrophic, but it would create a down draft in the stock. >> agree we're hearing it from everybody. think your mcdonald's and your starbucks have priced a lot of china growth in. think mcdonald's more resilient there. and quickly over to brazil, there are brazilian banks, bbd, these are world class banks and there is a lot of capital chasing e.m. and i think brazil

economy does well. india doesn't because it is a major importer of energy. >> and tesla, the market share has dropped from 25% to about 15% in the last quarter and the big manufacturing hub and it is very important for them and that demand there and they have a lot of local makers of evs that are doing much better. and we saw that with apple, too. at one point apple had much higher market share and a lot of the locals have taken up so i guess if you think about from a geopolitical standpoint and if you start having national tend epsys and manufacturing is moving outside of the region, i think you should expect for that market share to drop pretty significantly. >> there are a lot of things that china could say we're not going to send it to the u.s. any more and could wreak havoc on the consumer when inflationary pressures are so high, karen. >> we haven't really seen that yet. as far as what is -- what is going to be the response. >> right. >> so that was a very good

example he gave us one it is -- are they shooting them sfz in the foot to force apple out? yes. but they're much long-term thinkers than we are so maybe they think that is okay. it does have a level of risk to apple i'm not delighted about. >> that is not in the stock. >> right it is not in the stock. >> what would happen to the stock, let's say just play this out, if china said there is a duty on all iphones sold in china. there is a variety of measures they would say we have a covid lockdown at fox co and there are a number ever measures that china could take with apple. >> i think it would be a big deal and we'll talk more about smartphone sales and we haven't priced any of it in i just think if you look look at multi-national effect of where china is priced in, still not a lot. >> and fox con are trying to do that for apple and move them

outside of china so they'll still have an interest in it but if they don't have a million of they are consumers getting their phones. >> president biden tries to take a bite out of record company profits but does it stand a chance for passing and what it could mean for energy companies. and plus one bad apple ruina bunch. why iphone sales drop in china, more on that when "fast money" returns. back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. president biden laying into oil and gas companies yet again. saying they're record setting profits should go toward lowering costs at pump and increasing production. and floating the idea of a wind fall tax on energy producer profits as energy stocks continue to soar haliburton and chevron and exxon added to their gainsch but could the administration's move put a ceiling on the group if it is actually going to happen and that is a big if, tim. >> and i'll let people who study the political policy make a judgment on the mechanics. but it is the best thing that has happened to investing in the energy sector and i ty it will

continue to be part of the reason the energy companies are truly rallying and bottom up, investors in the space are truly investors is because the companies aren't investing at all costs and they are worried about their balance sheets and companies that have built structure. i don't think demand changes at all in the next ten years. and if you think about the constraints and the lack of capex and on ex in these businesses, it is why they are going higher today and all of things around that we talk about every night in the early part of show about the changes of what people are investing in and maybe tech stocks have seen their best days even if they are conservative growth and into the energy space that is part of the reason why investors are coming on board and at 5% or less the s&p it is going higher. >> and i wouldn't come on board right here it is up 30% in a month. the oih is up 50%. this is back toward the 2022 highs both of them and ai just feel like again, tim and guy, you have have been

talking about this for a while you thought a month or two ago that we were too depressed i don't think this is a trend that plays through 2023. if you think of where energy is as a percentage of the s&p 500, and what it is doing to s&p 500 earnings, i just think you'll have to go other places where it is a better earnings contributor in 2023. >> so getting back to your original point about can he even do this. which seems highly, high lie unlikely but i haven't heard anything about what is a wind fall. what constitutes a wind fall. >> i guess record -- >> i don't know. a lot of things don't make sense. at pre-pandemic levels, once again back to pre-pandemic levels output is very high and then the tweet on saturday about they're using money to pay wealthy shareholders i'm sure there are wealthy shareholders but there are plenty of retirement funds an public pepnsion funds that are

benefiting in this difficult market so there are a lot of things that just sort of don't gel to me at least. >> it just seems, at least, clearly there is an election coming up and the week after this and so you think this is the kind of good p.r. to do. but to a political point, it is a mechanism for this to happen seems kind of -- >> difficult. >> yeah, difficult. >> guy >> are we demonizing starbucks for jacking up tim's coffee about 150%. >> there are plenty of companies making profits because of inflation. >> i mean, listen, pepsi flat out told you, these companies are telling you they've been raising pricing. they're not hiding from it i don't hear anybody going after them demonizing, i don't think it works politically, but i'm not running for election and we'll see if ittets good a couple of votes well done. but when the energy companies were on the other side of the

spectrum which wasn't too long ago, i didn't see anybody coming into their defense and to tim's point and he's right, the best thing that has happened for the companies is in fak this administration >> there is a lot more "fast money" to come here is what is coming up next. >> announcer: the apple doesn't fall far from the tree but iphone sales seem to how the drop in china sales could mean bigger problems for the tech titan plus take a bow, dow the index closing out in the bext month since 1976 but the groovy gains may be running out of steam you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. ♪♪ ♪♪

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welcome back to "fast money. china's iphone demand falling for a third straight week as much of the country is under lockdown sales falling 27% last week. that is greater than the 12% drop in androids pullback come as mid a report that iphone outputs one of the biggest plants could fall by 30% next month so is this a sign for bigger problems ahead for apple i think the point jeffreys is also making, this is because of supply chain issues that point. >> we were on the desk and talking about that quarter and saying wait for the guidance quarter wasn't great it wasn't horrible the guidance was not as bad as you could expect given the manufacturing and demand issues there. but its rally of 7% seemed ludicrous after the close. so there was a lot of money finding its way there, out of amazon and google and microsoft last week. i suspect that kind of reverses course because once we get

through the initial demand for the higher end phones, i don't see it picking up any time soon. and then you think about ipads and macs, i think it could be a ---y year for 2023 when they have out performed the mega cap. >> that is the your point, the atm effect from the other big tech into apple. >> yeah. and i think it sounds ludicrous at time, but i think it is makes a lot of sense because it happened a number of times when you expect apple to create with the broader market, it outperformed and that is exactly what happened. dan nailed it. it wasn't a bad quarter, it wasn't a particularly great quarter. gui guidance was not great and trading at mid single-digit eps growth with declining margins. that is the nature of the beast. and apple is not impervious to what is going on rally didn't make a lot of sense

especially at 7%, 8% higher. and i think what you see in apple is what you saw two quarters ago with microsoft when it rallies a couple of weeks post and then gave it all back. >> if you think about where we were with apple, it is trading in the top third of the multiple over the last year is that deserved and i would disagree a little bit. i would say it is a quantity record it was a record quarter. but we knew that so the guide wasn't great. and i agree and i think that is where you are keying on. we got the headlines on the show about deceleration in the upcoming quarter and the market didn't seem to care. i just get back to what do you want to pay for this company do you think the best days are in the next few quarters i don't. no one is criticizing apple. but this is really a case of where every other smoartphone company is seeing falling sales. it is just a matter of time. >> it doesn't make its iphones on an island either.

it has a lot of potential impacts here. >> yeah. although, i mean, about the quarter, he did say we are supply constrained, not demand constrained. that is a bullish thing, i think. >> he's never mentioned demand which is great and which is why the stock trades where it does. >> right also and it sold off on any other faang trading poorly but prior to so it was sort of a bit of a relief and i'm concerned about the other issue we were talking about, the existential threat of -- >> china. >> yes the best october gains since 1976, best month in 46 years so could this mid-life crisis be coming for the industrials p we'll debate that and talk about a share of wynn as the billion dollars buyer puts a lot of chips on the table. we have all of the details when "fast money" coming right back >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us any time, anywhere.

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welcome back to "fast money. stocks closing out october on a down note with the nasdaq dropping over a percent and the s&p 500 p s&p and dow following

the suit the dow locking in the best month since 1976 and it is best october on record. outperforming the s&p 500 by 6%. now according to the chart master, carter worth, that is the biggest spread since the 2009 financial crisis. he's now wondering if it might be time to short the dow and go long the s&p 500 actually he's not wondering. he recommended that in a note. guy, who at would you say >> i love carter's worth and we talked about it on october and the monday the 17th and it felt like it did in the middle of june and we thought there was a real chance the s&p could get to 4,000 which would represent about a 15% trough to peak gain. which made a lot of sense and i'll stand by it so i guess i'm with carter braxton worth on this. >> the underlying theory is that is there is a high correlation between the dow and the s&p 500.

so this divergence doesn't make sense and there should be convergence going long and short the other. >> this is just a handful of stocks if you're not careful this could be caterpillar or united health or a couple of pharma stocks and a couple of energy stocks like chevron which some of these are trends going to continue. health care and big pharma is defensive. so i kind of like this one for the dow. i don't think it has to end overnight. >> from a technical standpoint, i don't mean to step on carter's toes, he's the chart master. if you look at dow, if you look at down trend that has been it is about ready to get to the line so that could be a moment of truth for broader equities in general if the dow were to get through the down trend in place since the first week of june we also talk about small caps which i think have some similar characteristics with some of the rains that have worked well and the dow. they never made a new low. >> you mean like domestically

oriented. >> yes and they never made a new low and they have a nice bounce before the s&p and the nasdaq did. and other area, small caps our next guest said they are the place to be. let's bring in nancy priel nancy, good to see you again >> nice to see you, melissa. >> so we're talking about small caps seeing more domestic oriented is the macro back drop that your expecting one of recession or hard times for the u.s. economy, for hard times globally and therefore you want to be more domestic >> well, we think that we do want to be more domestic here. because we think there are a number of drivers in the u.s. economy that even with what we think will be a hard landing, hopefully not a deep recession, but certainly a hard and a bumpy landing. the u.s. economy will be looking better and be stronger than most of the other economies particularly those in western europe for the obvious reasons of russia/ukraine.

we think that small caps in particular are really well positioned for this environment. because they are leveraged that domestic economy and more importantly they're levered to the industrial economy which we believe will be leading us in the growth for not only the next year, but for perhaps the next decade >> nancy, it is karen, thanks for being on so, i don't follow the metrics of small caps that closely could you tell me where they trade now relative to where they were at they're peak >> right so small caps are still extraordinarily cheap. in fact they're selling at valuations on both an absolute and on a relative basis that are similar to where they were selling back at the 1999-2000 point. so they're selling at, depending on which small cap you're looking at, anywhere between 10 and 13 times this year's earnings similar number on next year's earnings because the estimates for next year is pretty conservative on a relative basis they're

selling at a very low percentage compared to the s&p, compared to their large cap counterparts they're also on their own. compared to those larger cap stocks, particularly those great large growth stocks that have been driving the economy for the past decade or so. and so we think that with that valuation discount, with the better growth prospects and with the lack of ownership, that puts them in a great position to appreciate as their earnings come through. >> just one follow up to that. what is considered a small cap what is the criteria that makes -- i don't -- >> right it is a very tricky question these days because the traditional definition is that in the russell 2000 today that encompassed stocks up to about 11 or 12 billion in market cap so as the market has gone up over the years, the definition of small cap goes up we define is as stocks between $250 million market cap and $7 billion on the high end

so not quite as large as where the russell 2000 is. more importantly, one of the chara characteristics of small caps is they are less well understood and less well-known and that is an important qualitative part about the small cap space. >> within small caps did you like industrials and energy and those involved with rebuilding the infrastructure i'm wondering because overall you think the marks are in for a positive period. even though the first quarter is volatile will small caps outperform their larger breath rin during this? >> we think they will. small caps have been outperforming the largest brethren over the most recent period they outperformed in october and september and in the second quarter. a lot of that is due to the valuation and due to the fact that the earnings are coming through.

they're more domestically oriented so the dollar is less of a head wind for them. and we hope that outperformance will continue as we go forward we think that we are in an economy thatis going to be led by this industrial sector driven by the forces of infrastructure rebuilding an reshoring of manufacturing, building of supply chains and again that will benefit these companies so, they'll get recognize and we think that that the earnings growth as it has been at the beginning of the earnings season to be better than that for large caps, ca caps. >> nancy, thank you for your time guy, how do you feel about small caps. >> we talked about this. go back to january before everything craters, now this june traded down to 166 bounce and we just did it again on september 30th so i have a double bottom past resistance becomes support. so this has some legs here

i don't think it will trade north of 210 but it definitely could make a push toward 200 and in a tape that i think will be going up for nimt week or so. >> i view small cap stocks as a hedge against emerging markets and things that are growthing. it peaked as we get the reflation and the burst in rates in the early second quarter of 2021 and as the dollar has rallied and you think this would be small cap positive, they have run into a lot of pressure people feel like small cap companies will be well insolated. so i think they've disappointed in a period where they should be doing better but i would agree that the exposure here or the sectors that we're just talking about with the dow, i think this is a lot of small cap exposure. >> what kind of trade do you in small caps >> i don't and one of the things and i don't look at investing in small cap, i think they are hard to invest in on a stock basis as it relates to rotation, i think iwm is the ray to play it.

i think that strike is holding and i think you want a piece of that as you think about 2023 and how you're allocated toward u.s. stocks. >> coming up, gamb, shares of wynn topping the tape. why one billionaire investor is betting on this unwith the details ahead. and do not mis money virtual event kicking off tomorrow top financial experts share their advice on how to invest a brighter future. scan the qr code on your screen or register at cnbc.com/yo ney.ur "fast money" is back in two.

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and pay no account fees. sofi. get your money right. welcome back to "fast money. shares of wynn resorts topping the tape on news that billionaire investor tillman f fertidda has taken a stake in the group. contessa joins us with the details. >> that 6.1% stake makes tillman the second largest individual share holds in win reschultz behind the founder gene wynn he would be a passive investors for now. is this really just a buying opportunity, i mean after all

wynn shares are down 25% this year even after this tillman shot in the arm. shares hit hard by macau, the source of three quarters of wynn profits and even boston harbor is out individual properties in macau. but there is speculation that tillman is out to acquire the company and in fact may have already done so. had the access and price of debt been more advantageous now if the capital marks ease an the rates relax will be see tillman target wynn? again he filed a 13-g. but so did elon musk right before he took a bid for twitter. skeptics might argue here that is prompted more scrutiny from the s.e.c. about these kind of filings and in nevada, i should point out, they are required to notify the gaming control board. but he is licensed in a nevada

and and other states and that makes his path presumably somewhat smoother should there be other ambitions at play. >> i'm glad you mentioned the 13-g distinction karen is going through it and you said there is actually -- it goes beyond just the 13. a boilerplate 13-g there is specifically language. >> right i think here is thing though that you bring an excellent point. elon did do that he's going to lose on that and that was totally wrong and that is ridiculous. but tillman could have filed a 13-d they always file a "d" and say it is for investment purposes only and that could change in the future that is a easier way to do it than switching from a g to a d and people wonder when were you really a "d" filer. >> it is more complicated. contessa, i'm curious as to whether macau would contemplate

a take over of the chinese government. >> they're in the re-licensing process so anything that throws a fly in that ointment is problematic. i've had sources suggest that tillman were to make a move, it might be after the concession renewal process is over with and then to go about doing that. and i don't know how much appetite there is for tillman to be involved with macau and when macau specifically you could see a spinoff where wynn macau is different from domestic u.s. win resorts. that is way down the road. but the one thing that wynn reports has in the united states that is really attractive assets and they still own the property on the las vegas strip a lot of acreage there a lot of real estate and they're the owner of that. and they did just make a deal in boston to sell that out to a

reit and run the property as the operators. >> right contessa, thank you. guy, if memory serves, wynn is the w in your dawn trade? >> it is amazing how, you know, when memory sevens it is typically because i did something incredibly wrong which was the w. but when you forget all of the good things. that is fine i get it is halloween. bobb boo, by the way. and this was a 95 stock and here we are in the 60s. and it is too -- i on the know a 13-g from an efg and i think he'll continue to make forays into this name it is too cheap. they report next week. trade at one and a half times remember i think the shock should go higher. >> and i'm suggesting trillman i

trading like we trade. and he sold that nugget online sports betting business to draft kings for a major property over a billion and a half dollars in terms of sale price if he's swooping in and at a time when macau is also still something that is hanging over a lot of the these companies, in fact i would argue that is the greatest driver for wynn stock right now. i'm not worried about macau in the short-term, i'm worried about the chinese government and but tillman knows what he's doing here and we have a buzz kill on meta. falling to the lowest level since january of 2016. today's move makes meta the worst performing stock in the s&p this year. down 72% dan. >> what did i say earlier. i said i should have listen you to you, karen, on the three day rule i bought it at 101 or more today at 93 1/2. so kind of averaging in. but you see this sort of selling

two or three days after the huge down draft isn't great sooner or later it might find a bottom. >> i was with you. though i bought some today too. >> why >> it just seemed so out and every naanalyst, i don't know wt optimism is built in there not a lot. but i said that for a while. that is too cheap. this is cheap. >> to go back to the idea that we had the at top of the show with china in terms of things looking terrible and if they go from terrible to less terrible, that could be a catalyst what is the thing that makes the meta situation less terrible if management is sticking by the strategy that investors are poo pooing. >> let's say the economy picks advertising picked up a little bit. or let's say -- >> tiktok gets banned.

>> or say that zuckerberg hears just the outcry that is so loud right now, that maybe he tweaks the spend a little and does a buyback with that savings. >> but the flexibility on the spend has been out there this whole time and they don't have to go with the numbers they've talked about. so i feel like the ability -- >> he said he would. >> he said he would and we've talked about credibility think he gains credibility by backing out of the metaverse the credibility is the strategy the right one. if you undo it or say we'll be there but we're not betting the farm, i think the stock goes a lot higher. >> it is been a trap it is an absolute trap but it doesn't mean the stock is not going to bounce. i think what will happen here and the same thing that happened to netflix where it bounced along the bottom for three and a half four months and i think that will happen here in facebook. >> coming up, we're counting

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welcome back to "fast money. all eyes on the fed ahead of wednesday's interest rate decision and options traders in one group of stocks are betting the market could be in for a surprise dovish turn from jerome powell mike khouw joins us with the action mike >> so we're look at xli, that is the industrial trade, at five times the average daily call volume at 100 strike call options we saw over it 25,000 of those trading for an average of 45 cents a contract and buyers are betting that xli could rally over the course of the next two and a half weeks. but buying cheap call options is a hedge against short positions which is another possibility. >> so there was something interesting that happened today on the government's tax receipts and it was quite a bit lower than people thought. and so the treasury department

will have to issue more debt and people thought that was bond bearish so i'm sure spy and qqq. >> thanks, mike. for more "options action" tune into the full show on friday at 5:30 p.m. eastern time up next, final trades. you ok,? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one. [inaudible] wow! yeah! it's time to take control of your investing education. cut through the noise with best-in-class education resources that match your preferred style of learning. learn your way. not theirs. td ameritrade. where smart investors get smarter℠.

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final trade is sponsored by interactive brokers. the profession's gateway to the markets. >> time for the final trade. around the horn. guy? >> i'm so upset you didn't make any comment about my scary duck tie. alibaba, sister. >> it is not scary it is adorable tim. >> be safe out there, folks. happy halloween and brazil may be looking safe with lula at the hem and some of the best rallies and ewz is the way to play that. >> this is the thing about guy he tries to be scary but he ends up being adorable. right, guy >> the tie, not the person. >> anyway, gm has had a bounce back and i think it is time to

sell upside for it. >> and i think it is dorkable. i'm with guy he's talking tlt, i think the treasury yields are topping out soon. >> thank you for watching "fast money. enjoy halloween and be safe out there. we'll see you tomorrow at 5:00 with , but to teach you educate. th