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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  November 1, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EDT

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cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." a new month of trading after the dow locks in the best month in 50 years the central bank kicks off the policy meeting we speak with former fed vice chair roger ferguson on what the market maybe missing. and team elon musk with
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shakeups coming up record-breaking profits and how he is threatening to take action and a new place topping the list of best states for retirement it is tuesday, november 1st. you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan let's kick off the first day of november with the stock futures. we are higher by triple digits for the dow jones industrial average. up 176 nasdaq up 103. s&p 500 indicating a higher up up 30 points after a record-breaking month for the markets in october that saw the dow with the best monthly performance since january of 1976. gaining nearly 14% look what happened in the bond market yields compress.
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10-year treasury now back below 4% 3.98%. look at what is happening in the energy sector. oil right now where it is trading higher by 1.3% for brent crude. $94 for wti crude. we are seeing bitcoin and ethereum trade higher 1.5% for ethereum and bitcoin up 1% above $20,000. around the world green arrows overnight in asia with hong kong surging 5% on the day. hong kong tech sectretor surgin 7% look at alibaba up 7.5%. much more on what is behind the rally coming up. the reserve bank of australia sticking with the
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approach and hiking the lending rate by 25 basis points. toyota, the world's biggest auto automaker, by sales reporting a drop in profit from the recent quarter and cutting the vehicle output target amid surging material costs and chip shortage the stock down 2%. let's check on early trade in europe. dax up 1%. ftse 100 higher by 1.5%. let's get to some of the morning's top corporate stories with silvana henao seema, good morning. elon musk kicking twitter into second gear pulling more than 50 tesla employees from its auto pilot team to the twitter takeover according to records seen by cnbc, a number of employees from the musk ventures are authorized to work at twitter, including
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those from the boring company. this amid reports that musk is creating a circle of advisors and employees from the business empire to help reimagine twitter. oil and gas giant bp with third quarter rosprofits up $8. billion. the company also announcing another $2.5 billion in share buybacks bp is committing to cash flow for shareholder returns. and university endowments are falling back to earth. according to estimates, the median result in the fiscal year was a loss of 7.81%. the worst showing since 2009 among the worst performing
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universities stanford and brown and m.i.t >> concerning numbers there. thank you. let's turn to a major story in the uk and bank of england restarting the delayed quantitative tightening today. arabile gumede is jaoining us with more on that from london. >> seema, the markets in the green so far today up 1.5% for the ftse 100 in particular that is the key attraction that we will focus on today today is test day. the bank of england selling off assets as you can see, yields dropping off. it makes the central bank a test case for how quickly markets can shift away from what is easy money policies that we had over the last couple years.
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let's remember that the uk central bank was buying government bonds as recently as a few weeks ago. that was aimed to soothe the markets after the mini budget which roiled the gilt market in september. the boe stepped in now it will be auctioning the first 750 million pounds in the short securities that is $860 million results are due at 3:00 p.m. local time trying to reverse the easing program that helped to prop up the economy through the financial crisis and pandemic of 2020 andquantitative easing pusd interest rates to near zero and the hopes that easy money would give investors confidence and foster growth. the governor of the boe hoping
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that reversing qe can run in th background and focus on the lending rate as the tool for managing monetary policy >> arabile, the markets are brushing off the latest round of tightening why is that? do investors have more confidence in the bank of england? >> it seems as we head toward the bank of england decision as well as interest rates for next week and they are expected 75 basis point hike in interest rates. it will still be a firm part of the market any major more is a wait and see move and if enough of the bonds are sold off or auctioned off today, it gives a clearer sense they will be able to unstimulate, if you want to call it that, the economy as the focus now shifts quite heavily into the inflation picture that is where the focus of treasury as well as the bank of
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england will be zoomed in on >> we await for that meeting some strong gains in europe. arabile, thank you. back on wall street. stocks in the u.s. kicking off a new trading month after october's big bounce and if history is any indication, november may keep up that momentum get this, according to the stock traders almanac, this month is start of the stronger period for stocks since 1950, the s&p 500 and dow averaged gain of 0.9% in each of the next three months. the almanac adds for the nasdaq that november is especially strong serving as the best month of the index for midterm election year. for more expectations fo november, let's bring in delano saporu delano, good morning >> good morning, seema
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>> what did you make of the performance of the equities in october and is the worst over? >> it is surprising. we had five bounces since the january peak where we trended down it set investors bear iish with earnings this quarter. it is not clear yet. a couple of things you have to look for with tightening we still have a pending potential recession and if it is filed or not, it is something investors have to take into account. i'm still very cautiously positioned >> can you break that down are you bullish on bonds or is cash king? >> obviously, still vested in the markets. you are right. short-term rates and savings
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rates for people right now is at the highest since 1980s. that is the opportunity for people to look for opportunities and cautious to have cash. especially with the rally over the past lumonth, we have seen rallies drift down maybe for investors, it is looking for another draft down for them to pick areas within their growth portfolio to buy. again, you see big moves in facebook and big moves in amazon to the down side after earnings. those are opportunities for long-term investors. short-term bonds are an opportunity as well. look at dividend yield and plays as well. the stats are the play for investors over the past year to date that's still the play you want to look at especially after a big rally that may not hold when we get into q1 of 2023.
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>> what would you like to hear from powell tomorrow >> i think what the fed has done is actually everything they projected to the market over the last decade. we know what's coming. i want to see if the trend and data is getting better in the labor market i think the labor market will tell us in the next couple quarters where the market goes that may be an indication the fed will get more comfortable where inflation is going forward. the moves they have done so far are still going to trickle through the economy the next six months we still haven't seen all the impact yet see if the impact will happen in the economy will be a good tell for investors where we trend the next couple caquarters that's the trend and that's what i want to see from powell tomorrow >> delano, good to see you thank you. when we come back, china's covid zero policy straining
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residents and workers again as officials grapple with rising case counts and outbreaks across the country. plus, ahead of the two-day policy meeting that kicks off today. why former vice chair roger ferguson says they are not on the same page. and get a global perspective on the rates and policy with ycchang. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ as an independent financial advisor, as you plan, protect and retire. i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always.
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a developing story this morning as china grapples with covid outbreaks across the country and implementing the strictest zero covid policies. the fallout hitting the tourism sector and manufacturing hubs. we have eunice yoon with the latest >> reporter: seema, one manufacturing 0hub appears to gt relief soon. the iphone city of zhengzhou foxconn has a factory spilling out to escape the covid curbs and spread the city announced it will be lifting the lockdown as of today which in theory should help the company to return to operations back to normal the decision is a bit of a surprise because of the number
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of reported cases today in the city was 95. that is for a city of12 millio people globally, very low at the same time, much higher than when the lockdown first went into effect so the protocols have not yet been eased that is creating a bit of confusion and uncertainty for foxconn and other companies there which has been facing a fallout for workers. officially, the company says that its production won't be affected however, an official news outlet quoted a factory manager who said this if they do not retain enough workers, they could see production fall by 50% he said the company now is looking for various ways to create financial incentives to keep the number of workers they need >> eunice, i want to get your take on the huge upside in
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chinese stocks we're seeing now. alibaba and jd.com and tencent up double digits the tech etf up 7% what would you say is behind the move >> reporter: well, perhaps some good old rumors, at least social media posts which have not been verified which said the government could be creating a committee to try to figure out an exit plan for zero covid. the foreign ministry said they are not aware of any such plan and it would seem to fly in the face of what we have seen with president xi and all of the messaging from the leadership they would stick by this policy. one thing we could see a change of has been whether or not china would want to ease some of the travel restrictions to allow very high level executives into
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the country. from what i've been told, there has been some discussion that there could be -- some of the high level financial types or anybody else could come in, but anybody who they meet would have to go into quarantine for ten days we have seen examples of that before there's been some discussion that maybe that would be a way to ease the restrictions without easing the entire policy. >> any signs of easing restrictions, clearly welcome by the market we look for your reporting eunice, thank you. eunice yoon in china. still on deck, your top trending stories including florida falling out of favor on a new list of best places to retire in the united states. find out which state dominates the top spots when "worldwide exchange" returns. >> announcer: today's big number 54%. that's the share of adults that stopped or reduced retirement
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time for your big money movers four stock stories at this hour. first is avis budget group third quarter earnings beat forecast avis expects the demand to carry through to the end of the year. stock two is stryker posting
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better than expected third quarter results. it is lowering guidance for the year up next is hologic the company posting fourth quarter numbers and topping forecasts. the company focuses on women's health and seeing strength in the business heading into the new fiscal year. goodyear tire shares are tumbling after the company's third quarter results missed estimates. goodyear says after strong profit and sales in the first first, growth has moderated due to weaker volumes and rising inflation and the impact of the stronger dollar. down 9%. let's get a check on the other top headlines with nbc's phillip mena in new york >> seema, good morning the man accused of attacking house speaker nancy pelosi's
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husband is expected to make a court appearance today david depape told investigators he planned on breaking the house speaker's kneecaps if she was caught lying to him. he is facing a number of charges,ing in including the atd homicide of fpaul pelosi. according to police, a group gathered when one fired into the crowd in chicago three victims were children ages 3, 11 and 13 one other person was struck by a car at the scene injuries range from non life eve threatening to critical. no one took openly the powerball jackpot from last night which ballooned the prize to $1.2 billion. it is now a little less than $400 million way from the largest price in powerball history. that comes with the cash value
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of under 6$600 million another lottery draw at 11:00 p.m. eastern tomorrow. another crack for everybody who wants that life changing money >> phillip, thank you. straight ahead here on "worldwide exchange. former vice chair from the federal reserve roger ferguson and the dow is up 180 mpoins in pre-market. we will be right back.
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comcast business. powering possibilities. ™ markets seeing less fear and more cheer in october. the dow wrapping the best month in nearly 50 years that momentum looking to carry over to the new trading month. futures are higher right now fed in focus as the central bank kicks off the policy meeting and another rate hike is expected former fed vice chair roger ferguson lays out the disconnect with markets and powell and companies commitment on inflation. and elon musk ramping up the twitter overhaul continuing to clean house within the social platform it is tuesday, november 1st. you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back
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i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan let's get to how the markets are shaping up as we kick off the trading month. futures are higher up 158 points in pre-market trade. nasdaq up 104. s&p indicated higher by 28 points this comes after a record-breaking month for the month of october that saw the dow gaining nearly 14% posting its best monthly performance since january of 1976 helped by honeywell and caterpillar. one sector stand out in october is travel. investors continue to bet on a recovery double digit gains for carnival jumping 29% and royal caribbean up 21% and norwegian up 48%. turning to the bond market you could argue one reason stocks have done well is yields have come down
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the 10-year treasury below 4%. yielding 3.98. let's hit asia significant moves there. hong kong closing higher on social media reports that beijing is getting lenient on the lockdowns. it is speculation right now, but tech stocks are up 7%. tencent up 11% baidu up 7.5%. talk of reopening in china as you look at the moves in european luxury makers hermes up 3.6% kering is up 4.5 lvmh is also higher. let's get a check of the morning's top stories with silvana henao. good morning >> seema, good morning president biden is threatening to pursue higher taxes on oil
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company profits if industry leaders don't reduce gas prices. speaking at the white house yesterday, the president continued the criticism that oil companies have made record high profits as consumers struggle. any new proposed taxes could face opposition in congress especially if republicans expand control after the mid-term elections next week. the president stressed he is a capitalist, but these companies have benefitted from the war in ukraine and subsequent subsidies on russian oil >> it is time they meet their responsibilities to the country. give the american people a break and still do very well the american people are going to judge who with is standing with them and who is only looking out for their own bottom line. a federal judge blocked penguin random house deal to buy
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simon & schuster the merger could lessen competition in the market. the case was seen as a precedent setter for mergers under the biden administration penguin says it plans to appeal the ruling. gamestop launching the nft marketplace. teaming up with the blockchain for the platform which allows gamers to own the assets within games. this is the latest to reinvest gamestop and adopt blockchain technology and cryptocurrency. to our top story and the federal reserve kicking off the two-day policy meeting today pricing in a more than 88% chance of a 75 basis point move tomorrow joining me now is former vice
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chairman and board governoring roger ferguson he is also a cnbc contributor. >> good morning, seema >> mike wilson says the fed is nearing the end of its rate hike cycle. do you agree >> i do not agree with that. i agree with the market expectation that the next move is 75 basis point tightening this week. i expect 50 in december and 75 on the table and i expect two more times next year maybe 25 basis points. i think we are not nearing the end as maybe other people think that to be the case. >> what data points or economic reports will you look to give you more confidence that the fed is nearing the end of its rate hikes?
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>> well, recognize that the fed is singularly focused on inflation. looking the incoming inflation reports is very important. there will be a couple of those before the next meeting in december in addition, what is driving that concern is a very tight labor market we will see several reports around that going forward as well i would be looking at those two areas. i would say right now while inflation may be cooling somewhat, i think it is still far from showing the clear and convincing evidence it is returning to the fed longer term 2% target. >> how important is this friday's jobs report and unemployment rate rather than moving up to moving down 3.5%? >> i think every one of the data points will be part of putting together a mosaic of telling a story. i suspect there is not any one
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report that suddenly swings the pendulum from one direction to the other. it is really the cumulative impact of understanding where the economy is and there are many ways to look at the labor market one of themupcoming jobs report on friday and then the jolts report with the openings we heard fed chairman powell talk about the jolts report as well there are a number of reports to give us a completer picture of the labor market >> my question is how many months of the cooldown does the fed want to see before it decides to start holding rates steady or cutting rates? fed fund futures rate now expecting rates to come inroger? >> i think that is optimistic. i think the fed will hold rates longer than the market expect
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and will start to think about cutting rates toward the end of next year on the condition that inflation moves down and appears to be staying there. that is the disconnect with the market and fed the fed is saying rates higher for longer than currently the market issin expecting to date, the data has been on the stronger side and more supportive of the fed planned intention to hold rates higher than the market expects and hold longer than the market expects >> we know the dual mandate. jobs and price stability do you think powell will knowledge the pain on countries outside of the united states that have seen thecurrencies move to extreme lows they are now seeing debt more expensive because of the out performance of the dollar? will he acknowledge the international risks to higher rates for longer
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>> he may knowledge that there is a stronger dollar to be fair, the strength of the dollar outcomes of raising interest rates. i think he is mindful of the obligation to the citizens of country to create long-term conditions for maximum sustainable growth that means getting inflation ubd c under control. i doubt that pain overseas will force the fed to change the long term strategy. >> how do you think what the fed is doing will impact monetary policy we heard from the bank of australia today and we will have the bank of england next week. >> i think each central bank is making decisions for its own economy. many economies are confronting inflation for a number of reasons. bank of england or england is dealing with high inflation rate others may be slowing more
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quickly. i think what is happening here is each central bank look at a similar profile of higher inflation, but maybe things moving at a different pace toward slowing we will not -- i do not think this is a coordinated moving this is the reflection of the economic conditions. >> extraordinary times roger, we appreciate you lending your expertise roger ferguson now to the latest on elon musk kicking off his twitter revamp into second gear. according to reports, musk is pulling more than 50 tesla employees mostly software engineers from the auto pilot team into the twitter takeover a number of employees from the other ventures of musk are also authorized to work at twitter, including from the boring company and link
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this as he creates advisers to reimagine twitter. coming up, semis companies looking at the battered sector looking to take a turn after the tough stretch. andsome of the top trendin stories. florida losing its crown as the top place to retire. a report ranking on the matter showing pennsylvania earned three of the top five spots surpassing florida in overall top ten appearances. instagram says widespread outage that left users their accounts were suspended has been resolved and the newest entry in the call of duty franchise seeing huge demand according to activision it is the biggest selling in the company's debut.
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sales surpassed $600 million "worldwide exchange" is back in a moment dad, we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. we got this. yay! we got this. we got this! life is for living. we got this! let's partner for all of it. edward jones
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here's why we say that april and october tend to get all of the love as the best two months of the year for the s&p which is true going back decades. it is november that is the top month over the more near term. ryan dietrick looks at the market going back to 1950. you can see that the summer tends to be lousy. september is nearly always falls. look at november which is highlighted. a typically good month, but in the past ten years, november has come into its own. over the last decade, november has been the best month for the s&p 500 with that highlighted area in the graphic. in the midterm years have done well as well of course, here is the dis disc disclaimer the past is no guarantee of future performance if you care about the markets and history, it is some
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potentially good news and we have not had this level of inflation or political uncertainty in anytime in the past ten years take it with a giant grain of sea salt maybe this october could provide a tailwind to the markets and your money random and interesting. it is. thanks, brian. the chip sector remaining in focus for investors this week with several names reporting rambus and lattice posting better than expected numbers last night take a look at lattice up 4.5% amd reports at the bell today while qualcomm is out with results tomorrow both companies are forecast for higher revenue amd cut guidance last month due to weaker sales in the pc
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division it is a rough go philadelphia semiconductor index is down 40%. the decline amid a pullback in consumer and business spending on electronics and high inflation and supply chain issues and that u.s. export ban on sales of high-end chips and chip equipment to china. let's talk about this and how you make money with jason pompeii at fitch ratings jason, it has been a tough year for the chip sector. we got nice earnings last night from rambus and lattice. >> good morning, seema i would say in general, you know, we remain constructive on semi conductive industry over the longer term. the secular will drive solid growth over time the sector remains cyclical and
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really what we are looking at right now despite bright spots, we are very much of the belief that we're in an inevitable inventory correction that really follows two years of robust revenue growth exacerbated by acute supply chain constraints and really that led to unprecedented customer investments as well as pockets of double ordering we anticipate 2023 to be a challenging year with a moderate down turn. i think it has come earlier and is a bit more abrupt >> what do you expect from amd tonight and how do you expect them to address the ban announced by the commerce department >> in terms of how they will manage it, obviously one of the concerns of the export ban is it
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does sort of remove a portion of the addressable market for companies like amd and nvidia and some of the chip equipment makers it will be interesting to see a couple of things number one, obviously, the aspect of enforcement. given the fact there are provisions for granting licenses that provide exceptions. also, there is the consideration for china's retaliation. you know, ultimately, this does actually take off the table, we believe, some structural issues for amd. it does also, of course, provide longer term opportunities as well you know, that is undeniable that it is meant to take that demanded off the table. >> jason, as you examine the balance sheets of the companies and look at the benefits and risks, what would you say is the best name to own in the broader
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semiconductor space? >> we're on the side of not providing advice what i would say from the credit perspective, we would generally say that most semiconductor names have been fbenefitting frm the credit profiles and position themselves well and manage balance sheets and have a little bit of headroom for what we expect to be a challenging 2023. >> less than hopeful jason, thank you on deck today, stocks set to kin continue momentum. jpmorgan chase's joyce chang is r remaining optimistic
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and if you want to invest in your money, join us today and hear from top financial experts. register by scanning the qr code on the screen or go to cnbc.com/yourmoney we'll be right back. chnologists, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.
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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." we're getting set for the first day of november. on wall street's radar, manufacturing pmi and the jolts report out before lunchtime. the fed pays attention to jolts data among the names reporting today, eli lily and pfizer and aig and airbnb clorox and yum china. and stock has been trading since 2013 will officially be removed
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from the msei and s&p 500 today. let's get back to the broader market for the earnings parade continuing. we are indicated higher on the first day of november. dow jones industrial average higher by 193 points nasdaq higher by 119 points. s&p implied open up 32 joining me now is joyce chang of jpmorgan chase thank you for joining us >> thank you, seema. >> very strong october for stocks a lot of talk about the fed pivot. what do you think, joyce can investors bet on a less aggressive fed >> the markets are more hopeful that we are past the peak of hawkishness. there is more fed tightening to come the pace willow slow by the fed
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it is a mistake for them to call an early end to the fight of inflation. we are a long way away from where the target is. i think the core inflation will remain at levels above the target this is a question of if we are past the worst, but the markets debate 50 or 75. we think this is 75. you have had market relief here. perhaps we are at the peak >> sitting on higher inventory for the holiday season for retailers. if we start to see the consumer, joyce, pull back, could that accelerate the drawdown in inflation? the question is when does inflation really start to move lower? >> we are seeing consumers are working through the buffers. at the start of the year, we had 14% of gdp in excess savings the buffers have been used
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throughout the year. what we are seeing is that on earnings, we have taken down the 2023 earnings to 225 really flat in 2023. i think you will see more pressure on the consumer going forward and unless we see the inflation pressure abate from here those buffers, we still have them in positive territory as we go into 2023 >> energy remains the best sector this year, joyce. president biden taking aim at the oil companies here in america again. accusing them of war prof profitteering. how will this end? >> it will all be the global tankers capacity as we get to the december 5th deadline and the oil price cap. russia has capacity off 1 million barrels per day. i think you are still going to
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see energy out perform here. it is still a key overweight call supply is tight. payouts are increasincreasing the benchmarks are low on the historical basis i don't think you will see much change in fact, there could be more pressure as the year continues. >> overseas. i'm curious what is happening in china. the country's zero covid policy has been criticized. what is your take and whether investors can bet on a turn around >> i do think the message we heard from the government is cons consistent we are looking at a medium term outlook for slower growth. we have china at 3% this year. i think you will see some recovery the question is when will you see them able to really abandon the pandemic policies they have in place so far.
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and the drag on real estate and property that is still continuing i think that you could see some bounce back off the lows that we have seen this year given how much that market has come off this year. i think the ongoing medium term pressure are still in place. >> export bans and military dr drills the expectation is the united states and china will uncouple so many other great things happening across the country >> i think consistent with the global call, they are looking at the energy and commodities in china. we noteed to take a close look china has a lot of stockpiling of commodities they have the highest inconinve inventories in commodities the commodities and energy and agriculture commodities broadly are still the areas to look at
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in china and broadly in the global markets. >> speaking of that, joyce, you have been bullish on brazil. commodity producing nation has your outlook changed with the election yesterday lula da silva is now in charge >> he has listed names that are familiar to the marketplace for the cabinet. i think the market has reacted favorably to beyond the results, brazil is one country that has done tightening we have seen the supreme court and allies verified the results and accepted the results we have seen the cabinet appointments could be more market friendly. this is a central bank with the tightening that could have eased. now the elections are over, i
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think they will look for where the cabinet appointments come in i think so far the names mentioned have been ones the market has familiarity with and seen favorably >> brazil among the best in emerging markets up 17% significant where you see the s&p. joyce, thank you for joining us. joyce chg anof jpmorgan chase. that does it for us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is next xfinity rewards is a program whose sole purpose is to say
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good morning stocks pointing to more gains after the dow locked in the biggest monthly gain since 1976. anyone remember the big red machine? will we see a lineup like that
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we haven't seen that since and never will. we hear from eli lily and pfizer and u ber. we will have an interview with dara. it's tuesday, november 1st, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. you will see green arrows. dow futures up by 200. s&p up 34. nasdaq up 124. of

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