inventory in q4, and although pcs are struggling, they're talking share from intel which should offer a tail wind for the stock going into next year. >> jay >> i like blackstone here, they raised 45 billion in q3, through a very difficult environment, 182 billion to deploy. >> six-month treasuries and the two-year, phenomenal. >> i'll see you in overtime "the exchange" is now >> thanks a lot, scott, i'm brian sullivan in for kelly once again. here's what's ahead, a better than expected jobs number and stocks are trying to hold up is good news good news, and bad news is good news, or bad news is bad news only when it's good. if you're confused you're not alone. we're going to dig in and see if the markets have broken their addiction to the fed, what it means for main street and your money. executive director of america's

newly crowned busiest port joins us to talk trades, supply chain labor bottles, whatever it is, and more plus, a special fed wake up call edition of three buys and a bail gina sanchez joining us. she says no, you got to steer clear. we've got all of that ahead. hi, everybody. we begin with today's markets. trying to hold up, they were, scott and the gang told you they were up big earlier in the session. we have pretty much given back all of the gains i wouldn't be surprised to see the dow and s&p 500 both negative in about four seconds the dow was up more than 600 points immediately after that october jobs number, at least the futures indicated it would be the major indexes all on track for a down week, and if so, i mean, unless something turns around they are, it would be the first down week in five weeks for the dow, the first down week in three weeks for both the nasdaq and the s&p, like i said, we could literally sit here and count until that goes red. all of that as treasury yields move back higher the two-year pulling back a

little bit it touched a 15-year high earlier today. that yield right now at 4.67%. hard to believe it was like, what, 0.3% two years ago by the way, this spread between this number and this number here, that is flashing a recession signal that's spread there, a recession sign the u.s. dollar getting hit today, especially against the chinese wan. that is helping equities crude oil, by the way, it is going up again it is up nearly 4% it is trading back above $90 a barrel we are getting more calls for more fossil fuel production by the president out there, the industry perhaps trying to respond, but look at crude oil up 4 1/2%, back to 92 pnl.17. the latest from the strategic petroleum reserve. six firms awarded it three of them, by the way, international trading companies.

it's very likely whatever oil they buy, particularly if it is the sweet version, not soul, will end up just being exported. hard to believe. but likely true. going strong is the travel trade. united airlines, expedia, vegas sands, all leading gains big stuff there. and we've got the sea of royal caribbean in a few minutes let's kick off by talking jobs and the state of the american economy. 261,000 jobs were added in october, and that is likely to keep the fed aggressive. remember, they have basically admitted they need americans to lose their jobs to push down inflation. hard to believe but true we don't want anyone to lose their jobs let's kick it off with a look at this diane swamp, chief economist at apmg, and summit global investments, and seema mody who has an interview with the ceo of rcl, royal caribbean

diane, we're going to start with you. i saw your tweet this morning about the job market, and what caught my eye was this little thing you put at the bottom, note, i am only the messenger. in other words, you're not looking for job losses nobody wants that, but the reality is the federal reserve has all but said we need people to lose their jobs to ultimately bring down inflation that's why this number today was creating a little bit of a conundrum. >> exactly we saw some mixed messages between the household survey which showed a decline in employment and rise in unemployment, and payroll service showed an increase and bigger than expected increase with upward revisions. we generated 4.1 million new paychecks year to date that is almost double the pace of annual paycheck gains in the 2010s and the second highest level of annual job gains since 1978 it's pretty stunning, and that's

why we've got aggregate demand still going up, even as the bite of inflation and rate hikes kicks in individuals have lost ground and then some to inflation who were employed, but those additional paychecks are what's the problem. and the fed, in order to get inflation down in a productivity environment that's the worst since 1982, they have to not only hit the demand for workers, but also unfortunately they have to affect the one place they can affect, supply, and that is via a rise in the unemployment rate. >> it's awful to even talk about, and i'm not sure, diane, you and i have been speaking for, what, 20, 25 years, and i'm not sure i have ever talked with you. >> might be not that long for me i don't think we've ever had this conversation, it's so bizarre. you're the economist, i'm not. tell our audience.

my guest is wage-based inflation is very sticky once you give somebody a raise, what are you going to do, take it back? no way >> it is sticky, the kind of inflation we're seeing is sticky, even though wages are under pacing overall inflation gains. the problem is productivity growth is falling and unit labor costs have risen, and so that's cost push inflation out there. it's also the sort of aggregate demand individuals feel, and the majority of americans feel like we're in a recession or on the cusp of a recession. that's because if they have had a job this year, they have lost all they have gained and then some to the inflation. the aggregate demand is there, and the loss in productivity, unless we were to see magic overnight, the surge in productivity growth, the wages we are seeing are adding to

inflation. we have seen turnover rates slow down a little bit, which is helping to cool wage gains a little bit, but not enough to really bring inflation back down to reasonable levels what we want to see is a labor market more in balance, so we can see wages out place inflation. i liken what we're seeing to cancer that is cancer left unaddressed can metastasize and become something for acute and more fatal. what the fed's issue now, being the oncologist, on the end of the discussions, giving the bad news that here's what we have to do to cure you, it's not going to be fun but it's better than the alternative. and that's not an easy message. >> by the way, some members of the sullivan family in the same boat we're glad you and others are doing well now on that is there any argument for a pause? and here's why i'm not advocating for this. i'm saying here's the idea, right, which is just take a pause for a meeting or two

see how things shape up. it does feel like, you know, to use the million-ish analogy, somebody gains 20 or 30 pounds in covid and is trying to lose it all in a month, right, it's going to take time why not wait and see how things shake out because it feels like they're trying to do it all right now. >> there's a very good point about that i was very much in favor of going 50 basis points not because we don't need to eradicate the economy of inflation and we don't need to get a higher rate to do that, but because rapid rate hikes are in and of themselves are incredibly destabilizing, look at the recession the housing market is in we've seen the worst back-to-back quarters, and they're comparable to what we saw during the sub prime crisis. housing is in a recession. home prices are beginning to peak and come off their peaks and they're going to fall next

year that is going to accelerate and compress the deceleration and inflation, and so i do think that the fed could be a little more calibrating, and they said, maybe we'll slow down the pace of rate hikes but end at a higher rate than we said before. our own analysis suggests, yes, you could do that, but i certainly would be in favor of being even more cautious with the calibration, and moving a little more slowly now that we're already well into what the fed considers restrictive territory especially when you look at overall financial conditions. >> i think when you said home prices fall, i think that may have been the understatement of the day so far i'm worried about housing prices diane, glad you're here. have a great friday and we look forward to seeing you again. thank you. now to stocks, and our guest says for goodness sakes do not try to fight the fed right now, and he's brought opportunity stocks david harden, ceo and cio of

summit global investors. you just heard diane i would imagine people are trying to guess this pivot game. i mean, that could end poorly. >> it may. and we'll have to see. you clearly saw the fed in the minutes of the meeting today or the other day when they released it, there were a number of different points, ongoing increases are going to happen. they'll take into account the tightening and the impacts on the economy. so they gave them room to slow it down, which they never had before, and then the commentary from, you know, from powell's commentary and his testimony, all hawkish. so the reality is there's a lot going on with fed speak and do not fight the fed. they have a long ways to go. they have definitely done it later than they needed it's steeper than we have ever had it before. i think it definitely is going to and has impacted the economy, but that impact you mentioned about housing, right, we typically feel the impact six

months after the rate increases. we're feeling april's increases. we have a long ways to go on the housing market we have a long ways to go on this market. >> a long way to go which way with housing, down >> right, down we have a lot of pain yet to be felt on the consumers. it's one of the biggest things consumers have to deal with is taking mone taking money out of their home, refinancing, it's one of the biggest they have. and the reality is inflation is sticky it's still very very high. and the signs are that they may have to do more in the future. >> we don't know what the impact is going to be, to your housing point, deutsche bank came out with something, i think it was yesterday, which was to be honest with you, kind of terrifying, and they showed that what you could afford, if you could afford 2,$2,500 a month fr a home, how much home could you buy, and last year, one year

ago, you could afford about a $750,000 home, 20% down, et cetera, at current rates for 2,500 a month. that house is now 475,000. a nearly $300,000 drop if we see the housing market do that, i can't imagine the impact on the american economy because real estate is a lot bigger and more important than the stock market. >> the only thing bigger than real estate on the economy is the fed. we have to remember that that's why powell said the path to a soft landing has narrowed significantly. i added the significantly, and the reality is it's true they have painted themselves into a corner. i think that's why you want to stay defensive you do not want to fight the fed. let them figure it out, if you will, hopefully get it better than they have in the past, and look for these market bottoms. the market hasn't bottomed the vx has not come close above a 32 or 33

it needs to get into the 40 to feel like there's capitulation in the market, enough fear that it's time you could switch it to not be so defensive. you want to stay defensive you want to manage risk in this market. >> we referenced the price of oil above 90 bucks a barrel. gasoline prices are going to go back up. the president is calling for more fossil fuel production. it's carrot and stick. it's an amazing switch we are urging for the white house, more sfossil fuel production is that a green light to buy chevron, to buy exxon mobile >> absolutely. you have to own those in your portfolio right now. the reality is they're not -- >> what a change, david, because a couple of years ago, they were going away no way you could own them. divest everything, they're dead, oil's dead now you have to own them >> well, they make so much money when oil is that high, right their earnings are solid, even

with all of the electric vehicles and other things that we have such a dependency in this world on oil and fossil fuels that it's great for utah, great for the great basin, they want to produce more, make more and have more jobs, and i think that's wonderful in the sense of where do you put your money now? you have to have some exposure to energy, and that energy play is the big players it's exxon, chevron, their gas prices will probably ease a little bit because of more production but the reality is they still have great yields they still have good value and that's going to continue >> do we have a strategic chocolate reserve? if we do, we might want to release it somebody called willy wonka because as bob pisani has pointed out many times, hershey is crushing it big chocolate, don't get in their way, they'll melt you. >> we need halloween that helps out sales a sweet for everybody there. the reality is they have been executing.

they have done a fantastic job on their expenses and managing that, but also on their sales, and so as we go into a recession, as we look at these volatility in the markets, candy is more addicting than cocaine let's just face it, and the reality is we can't get rid of it we need to have it hershey is a great play. this is a really good thing. not just that. let's look at it low risk, the volatility on h hershey alone is worth the investment we really like it. >> yeah, i don't know about the addiction part, but my crews have seen me gorge on sour patch kids just before the show. that's how it's done david harden, big oil and big chocolate. david, thank you, appreciate that. >> you're welcome. coming up, falling in love with the love boat stocks, royal caribbean's ceo is up next with seema. plus, is the fed's captain asleep at the helm we've got a fed wake up calls edition of three buys and a

bail the exchange is back after this. this is "the exchange" on cnbc

welcome back to "the exchange," let's talk cruising those stocks have been seeing nice gains the past month with norwegian leading the way.

royal caribbean up more than 20%. the company delivering an earnings beat with the industry getting closer to being whole again. let's talk travel and the state of the economy right now seema mody joining us with the ceo of royal caribbean, who's got a water slide behind him, our parents on an rcl boat right now. i don't know if that's it, but seema, take it away. >> thank you for joining us on board the beyond in fort lauderdale, it's great to see you. >> great to see you as well, seema. >> let's talk bookings clearly bookings have accelerated since labor day as those covid restrictions were removed in early september what are you seeing right now? tell us what the fourth quarter looks like. >> we currently have 150,000 guests sailing with us as i speak right now, and we're seeing two really strong things, one, acceleration in the booking environment, our guests are paying more than they paid in 2019, to sail with our brands, which is very exciting, and also on the on-board spend, they're

continue to go spend more month over month on our ships for the experi experiences we're delivering. >> you laid out ambitious goals, targeting a double digit earnings growth rate in the next three years. are these numbers realistic, jason, at a time when economists at j.p. morgan, bank of america are expecting a recession next year. >> we have a great business and our brands when fully occupied generate a tremendous amount of cash flow and earnings our trifecta plan is not a plan based off of perfection, we do expect there to be choppy waves at some point in the future. and it really comes down to our fleet being up and running, moderate yield growth, strong cost control and growing our fleet in a moderate way. that's all it takes to reach our trifecta goals and beyond. >> there's been a lot of talk about occupancy, running your ships on average at 96%. that's much higher than your peers, carnival and norwegian.

what would you chalk that up to? is that a geographical mix or simply come down to marketing? >> i think it comes down to we had an early start, bringing our fleet back, second it shows the strength of our brands it also shows the strength of our assets, like perfect day at cocoa kay, and we have seen healthy strong demand from our customers, and we're also doing all of this by maintaining price integrity, which we think is really important. >> let's take imprashl, prior to the pandemic, it was royal caribbean that had a stronger footprint in china you revealed you will not return to china will you at some point, and what's the reason? >> we don't have plans to return to china in 2023 it's not clear to us exactly when outbound travel will return to china and what that travel experience is going to look like once we have an understanding of that, we do think china has a lot of up side to it

when we were there, we were the leaders in the burgeoning market at this point in time we're not going to set plans on an environment where we don't know exactly how it's going to open up. >> back to what you're seeing in the u.s., how much pricing power do you have going into 2023 when air fares on average are costing 50% more than they did back in january. is that constraining consumer budgets and are you willing to bring pricing down >> yeah, well, i think the first thing is, you know, we see in every single quarter going forward, our prices are up, we're booked well within our historical averages, and i think one of the things you alluded to before, why are we seeing higher occupancy, it's having drivable markets. a lot of guests live within six to seven hours of our ports, and they're willing to drive, and that can lower their travel costs. we're also seeing travel costs as people are looking to travel abroad, starting to come back into more normal ranges. >> got it. let's talk about the balance sheet, because the cruise lines,

including royal caribbean have had to access the debt market over the past year how are you thinking about adding leverage at a time when rates only seem to be going higher that's what we heard from jerome powell earlier this week brian, i think we may have just lost jason, but clearly one of the questions for the cruise stocks they have had a pretty good month. >> i think the point about people driving my parents went out of baltimore, the regional ports where you don't want to get on a plane. they drive to baltimore a couple of hours, park their car there, you wonder if that's going to be more of a hook, a cost saver, more of these cruise ships rolling into baltimore. >> not just baltimore, los angeles, galveston, texas, they are trying to bring more ships to the customer to ensure that more people who can't afford air fare, say let's drive.

it's easier. >> people were trying to get on a cruise ship and it turned out to be tillman's new boat see ma mody, thank you very much jason, happy sailing. on deck, speaking of ships, move over l.a., there is a new king of american ports we're going to tell you who coming up next. plus, it may be the single greatest personal art collection ever assembled and now it's up for auction. robert frank has it, i mean the story, not the actual art, next. the hiring process used to be the death of me. but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ - [narrator] if your business kept on employees through the pandemic, behold... all that talent! getrefunds.com can qualify you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms

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the stockings. nasdaq 100 is down 3/10 of 1%, 3% away from a 52-week low i'm the messenger on this. don't knock it we are seeing the dow and s&p 500. the dow having its first down week in five weeks the s&p and nasdaq the first down week in three weeks salesforce, microsoft, the dow's worst performers this is actually apple's worst week since march of 2020 when the pandemic and the lockdowns first hit. on the flip side, shares of boeing leading the dow this week after some bullish commentary from its executives on both free cash flow and more airplane deliveries boeing is on track for its best week since march of 2021 as we mentioned, check out oil, continuing to surge, as american producers try, and they're trying to heed president biden's call to ramp up more fossil fuel production we have increased rigs here and around the world maybe not to the speed the white house would like as far as oil

production we are seeing wti crude, though, back above 92. again, i'm just the messenger. the bad news is that gasoline prices especially out there in places like california i know you're paying over six bucks in most places either way, maybe offset with stocks, if you own eog, diamondback, exxon, chevron, they are highinger as well. trump ally, and long time friend, tom barak, acquitted on all counts of working as a former agent, accused of using his access to president trump, and lying to the fbi he denied the allegations from the start. oath keepers founder stewart rhodes has taken the stand in his sedition trial connected to the january 6th riot on capitol hill rhodes testified his organization is not racist and isn't even a militia instead he claimed he was a

patriot helping military veterans prosecutors will now have the chance to cross examine rhodes about what they were were his plans for an armed rebellion to keep trump in power. saturday's powerball jackpot is the largest lottery prize in u.s. history strong ticket sales have raised the payout to $1.6 billion the cash prize has gone up to, i mean, this is if you take it, you know, with out all the payments, $782 million saturday's drawing will be the 40th powerball drawing since someone took home that jackpot how is this for statistics you know that your chances of winning are i, however, if you u a ticket, your odds skyrocket. >> brilliant >> you know, i was just saying, number one, okay, if the powerball is 100 million, a lot of people won't buy the tickets, it's only 100 million. your chances aof winning are muc

much higher. more people. >> your odds remain the same no matter what the jackpot is >> there's far fewer tickets. >> the number of tickets doesn't matter >> mathematically you are correct. >> i took statistics in college. >> did you finish it or did you just start it? >> i did, but it was a slog, i won't lie. >> 62% of stats are made up 47% of the time. everybody knows that statistically, but my point is there's far fewer people to compete with, and if you win you're going to share with fewer people this is our tweet. >> i re-tweeted it. >> you win 1.6 billion in the lottery, the first thing you do is what. one guy said i'm going to large size my fries. that's ambition. what would you do, contessa? >> i would keep my job and

become a big old diva. >> there's so much i want to say right now, i'm going to move on. >> i'll see you in half an hour. on deck, gina sanchez has free buys and a bail, including this deal after it lost half its value since january. a mystery chart. call scooby, we're back after this if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs.

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welcome back the feel good october rally, which was the dow's best month in 40 years has quickly faded. stocks set to finish in the red. your next guest says big tech stal stallworths are getting unfairly punished three buy asks one bail. gina, good to see you again. i'm going to ask you that lottery question as well think of it in the big brain of yours. jeff bezos was saying on twitter two weeks ago, basically recession is all but certainment stock is on pace for the worst year since the internet crashed. you say you got to buy it, but why? >> i think that amazon is

getting unfairly punished for guiding down, and it's not that surprising everybody right now is guiding down because if we aren't already in a recession, we're probably going to get there quickly with the determination that chair powell has to continue to fight inflation with higher rates and so if you look at performance by amazon, it has been fantastic if you look at expected performance for amazon, it continues to be great. and so i think that a lot of this is just that they had an extraordinary pandemic they are going to start slowing a bit, but the expectations are still amazing, and they look really cheap compared to even if you take into account we are now in a higher interest rate environment and we're probably going to normalize at a higher interest rate environment. we have taken that into account, and we think amazon is cheap here. >> next buy is microsoft, pacing for the worst year since 2008. gina, on microsoft, make your

power point. sorry. >> here's my pitch on microsoft. look, microsoft is suffering from some pandemic pull forward. a lot of people ended up having to get ready for remote work, deal with remote workment upgrade their systems throughout the pandemic, and they're starting to see a glut of spending expected next year, and so the projections for next year are modest but positive, but very low by microsoft standards and, i think that if you look at what's happened to the stock, they have more than priced that in microsoft is an absolute steal it was 21 times forward earnings for a stock that has tremendous growth and where the cloud story is not going away, i think we'll have low earnings next year, and i think that that will pick up and will get back to a more normal rate where spending is necessary, and quite frankly is important to most corporate, you know, back bones, and so you're not going to get away with not spending money on microsoft, so i think 21 times is a steal. >> and we showed our mystery chart before the break

the stock is down. it's adobe but another one that you like, i'm noticing a trend here, kind of companies that are best in class, don't have a monopoly, but it's not not a monopoly. >> they're pretty strong companies. if they're not a monopoly, they're really close, and adobe is one that continues to expand, and, you know, rech volutionize their brand, their offering, and their whole subscription model has really really improved over the course of the pandemic you know, they went head-to-head with mike bail, which is to add sign in capability this is a company that's continuing to expand they've had a tough year, and that's one of the reasons they're down but they're trading at 18 times forward earnings, and next year's expectations are very strong here, again, is one that's going to come back that's the theme here. we're investing in companies

that are going to survive the recession. >> those are your buys amazon, microsoft, adobe, it is docusign the covid pandemic, whatever also, housing, ouch. >> that was a big driver for docusign it was a pandemic darling for lots of reasons. but refinancing, buying homes and being able to process those through docusign was a huge mover and now the refinancing market is all but frozen, and this is a company that really only offers one thing, and one thing that was quickly replicated by another company, adobe. and so expectations for sales and revenues next year and earnings are terrible. minus 400%. this is a company you want to get out of

>> you win 1.6 billion, first thing you do is what >> the first thing i do is i buy my mommy a new house. >> which is why we like you. and you love your mother, which is why we love you hopefully a really nice house. ocean views, malibu. >> with a guest room for your favorite tv news anchor. still ahead, let's say you win the powerball 1.6 billion, and you say, i'm going to buy some fine art. you're in luck, perhaps the greatest personal art collection ever is about to go foauio robert frank up next with the ultimate estate sale ♪ ♪ opportunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world.

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really was and there are some masterpieces that could break records headed to the auction block robert frank joining us with details on this and maybe some of the superstars. people knew he bought art. >> he's got like five holy grails. >> i thought there was one. >> not the but painting equivalents of them. there are over 150 works of art spanning 500 years sales expected to total $1 billion or even more. that would make it the most expensive art collection ever sold you got three paintings alone estimated at over $100 million each, including van gogh's orchard with cypress's, that could top his record which was last set in 1990 this beautiful gogan, expected to fetch over $90 million, and the masterpiece "large interior," expected to sell for $75 million. he had a great eye for arts

investments. he bought birch forest, it's expected to sell at 90 million along with his art collection, his estate has been selling off his real estate in seattle and new york, and his two yachts his smaller yacht at just 300 feet was sold yesterday, and the main yacht called octopus now available, you can charter it for a mere $2.2 billion a week all the proceeds from the art sale will go to charity, and that sale at christy's will be next week, november 9th and 10th brian, there will be a lot of billionaires in the room, and i ran into leo dicaprio last week, he was viewing a private -- >> like the actor? >> what was he doing there >> he's a big art collector. i don't know what he's going to be bidding on. a lot of billionaires, celebrities, watching and maybe bidding for this. >> go back to the two yacht

thing. he had two yachts? >> he had two yachts. >> because >> you can because he could multiple vintage aircraft. >> octopus -- >> i've seen octopus in real life. >> it's huge and -- >> it's not a very attractive. >> it's got a submarine that you can get in and drop down in the water without anyone seeing you. it's james bond like. >> it's a half research vessel, half yacht. >> multiple apartments, owned the trail blazers and seahawks, those are in his trust that are controlled by his sister he signed the giving pledge so more than half of his wealth will go to charity, including the proceeds of this auction. >> which is great, but let's be clear when you do that, i would guess there are significant tax benefits to your estate. by donating the proceeds of the sale to charity, you're doing the right thing, but no tax bill for the next hundred years. >> he had very good accountants. >> we saw you in the hallway,

the octopus, you can charter it in antarctica. why would anyone want to do that >> the wealthy want explore yachts they want to go to fijis, the poles, not the normal mediterranean beaches, they want to go far out. >> fort mcmurdo, baby. here we go on paul allen's yacht. robert, thank you very much. let us know how it goes, by the way. which one is going to go for the most. >> i think the van gogh is probably going to go for the most. >> he was a little nuts, but he could paint. robert, thank you. is the west really the best, like jim morrison is saying, not when it comes to shipping in ports, at least not anymore. the executive director of the new king of natuch is up next. who could it be? stick around

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all right. welcome back to "the exchange," there's a new king when it comes to american ports. the port of new york and new jersey is the biggest port by teus, 20 foot equivalent units, basically the big containers you see on trucks everywhere new york is now bigger than los

angeles or long beach. how exactly did that happen? let's ask rick cotton, executive director of the port authority of new jersey and new york nick, congrats on your new title, by the way, kind of came out of nowhere how did this happen? >> well, the levels at the port of new york and new jersey have been increasing steadily over the past few years we actually passed long beach and became the second busiest port pre-covid what's happened since covid, however, the flood of cargo has actually now propelled us for the last couple of months into the position of the busiest port in the country that's due to some challenges that the west coast ports have faced. they've had congestion at the anchorages, they have struggled to some extent with labor uncertainty with some degree of uncertainty related to railroad

congestion and getting their containers off the port. the result is a significant amount of the west coast cargo has shifted to new york and new jersey. >> and we spoke with gene soroko at the port of los angeles on set a couple of weeks ago, really appreciate that, is this a short-term shift, though you shift, though? some of the labor issues cleared up, congestion is getting better, do you expect the tonnage to return back to the west coast or do you think new york and new jersey, we can keep it for good? >> well, we believe a good percentage of it will stick. there's no -- in our view, there's no question. shippers want the reliability, they want certainty that their cargo will come into port and go out of port with as few delays as possible. we think the port of new york and new jersey have proved that to the carrier community, to the cargo community, so we believe a good deal of the cargo that has

shifted from the west coast to new york and new jersey will stick. >> there's this threat of a nationwide rail strike and just literally in a couple weeks. i mean, if that happens, what does that mean for you is that a good thing in some weird way, because you're so close to your end customer, or is it just bad for everybody >> i think it's going to be bad for everybody. the fact is, just by virtue of the new york-new jersey marketplace, we're going to continue to serve that without question, but we will all face the challenges of the national railroad strike. >> yeah. you know, listen, i go on marinetraffic.com and look at ship congestion, as one does there seems to be a lot of ships off the east coast as well what's the congestion level for you, compared to normal times? every time i drive past newark, basically every day or go over the bridge, i can see a lot of

ships. >> well the experience of the port of new york and new jersey has actually been among the best in the country in terms of main taping fluidity. actually see the green across your screen right now. the fact is, the port has really become extremely skilled in handling the flood of cargo that's coming in from the ships, shipping it out with the railroads, working with the trucking community the secret largely has been communication and coordination of the many actors that go into a port functioning effectively we have maintained very low numbers of ships at anchor, much lower than the west coast as an example. we maintained a very low number in terms of days at anchorage for ships that do go to the anchorage. the majority of ships actually come straight in to the port of new york and new jersey without going to the anchorage at all. >> all right really appreciate having you on.

rick cotton, port of new york and new jersey, king of the teus appr appr appreciate it. >> good to be with you. still ahead, is china done with its soul-crushing, covid-zero policy? eunice un live in beijing. on monday do not miss our interview with the ceo of the biggest utility. well that utility just warned the white house it is not out of the realm of impossibility we're going to ask how this could happen in america, in boston, in the year 2022, that's on monday. we're right ckft ts.ba aerhi but with upwork... with upwork the hiring process is fast and flexible. behold... all that talent! ♪ this is how we work now ♪ i was having challenges with my old bank.

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all right. welcome back as always want to get one more thing before we go and maybe, maybe, some good news for folks in shanghai, beijing and

thousands of others in china that is the potential end finally of china's painful zero covid policy now these are hopes, but they're just hopes right now, but those hopes are helping stocks eunice is in beijing with the latest on the ground of what we're seeing and hearing eunice >> thanks so much, brian officially, of course, zero covid is the policy here, but there was what appeared to be a bit of a shift in the public messaging which could potentially lay the groundwork for an exit to zero covid. epidemiologist formerly with the chinese cdc told the city that the policy would see, quote, substantive changes within six months, citing progress on homegrown vaccines and the people's daily reported the effects of long covid are mild and said that controls should be precise. they said not full-blown lockdowns over single cases. zero covid has not only been constraining for the economy but

also on government finance, especially local several local governments announced this week they're going to start charging for tests. now there are still signs, though, that chinese are only willing to go so far in a visit to china by the german chancellor to beijing in order to meet president xi jinping, the chancellor announced china has agreed to approve the import of the b biontech vaccine. >> first off, it's almost year three. i can't imagine what you have gone through the lockdowns, mental health wise, everything else, but from an economic point of view, if zero covid draining for the government's budget, why haven't they been moving faster? do they not care about the money? >> so from a health perspective, the country and the medical

system might not be ready for it, but as i was alluding to before, the communist party has to rewrite the whole narrative around zero covid in order to really set the stage for an exit so far, the communist party has really been painting itself as infallible and they've been describing zero covid as a mark of how the chinese system is superior to the u.s.'s indeed, the overall systems in the west so a lot of people in the process have been very scared of the virus, so politically and socially the government here really needs to make a wholesale change of the zero covid story in addition to that, we don't really know what beijing's overarching definition will be of what an exit of zero covid is we're supposed to get some more information over the weekend when the health commission as well as other health authorities

hold a briefing on what they say are going to be targeted measures and prevention goals. >> i'm thinking about you and some of the other friends i have over there as well i saw on reuters that the number of cases in shanghai was the highest since may. you wonder if it's even effective and to change it would have to admit, by the way, we've been wrong the last three years. i can't see that happening thank you very much. that does it for "the exchange" here if she -- if she allows me i will join contessa brewer on "power lunch" coming up now. do i have your permission? >> let's do it welcome, brian, welcome viewers to "power lunch. i'm contess ta brewer. as the fed hikes rates and yields soar tech is taking a beating this week. one market watcher says there's big opportunities in this sector if you know where to look. two analysts battle it