tv Power Lunch CNBC November 7, 2022 2:00pm-3:00pm EST
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taking the lump sum. it's still a life-changing amount of money. >> i'm not turning it down, and i won't when they announce my winning numbers tonight. i pick 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, powerball 7. good luck to "power lunch. this start right now is this an anything but tech market is that a good thing why one technician is watching the charts of the mechanic acaps to figure out when the equity market will bottom plus your mid terms playbook from energy to esg to china to health care. what is at stake, wall street,
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when americans go to the polls tomorrow contessa has a check on the markets. >> the dow climbs a week -- ahead of the monthly inflation report it's up a percent right now, as much as $well, 330 points, the s&p 500 up 19 points, the nasdaq composite up a quarter of a percent. led higher by an 8% gain in eqt. look at that baker hughes is up 5%, and in deal news, walgreen is expanding the health care footprint. village m.d., backed by walgreens, is buying urgent care provider summit health at a deal valued nearly $9 billion the stock is up 4% on the day so far. tyler? >> with the major averaging still off double digits, the
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mega cap tech companies, they're sinking again. so, does this signal capitulation for the bear market let's bring? j.c. o'hara. you say this is not that why do you say that? and why do you think it is so important that these stocks, the microsofts, apples, teslas, am zones bottom ounce dramatically before we can say the forward is in >> well, tyler, over the las year, you know, investors' focus has been on downside risk, what can go wrong there comes a point in every bear market or every single, where investors need to pivot their thinking i think we're approaching that point in this current cycle. why do i say that?
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how do we know we're at that potential pivot? when we go back and study bear markets, you know, one common characteristic of all bear marks is you need to see the largeers, strongest stocks out there you need to see those names become completely washed out, the high le speculative names, that's typical the first to fall real capitulation doesn't whap until you see that -- so take me back -- >> as you're using historical allegories, take me back to, then, 2000-2001, what were those superstar stocks that had to wash out
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2008-2009, what were the stocks that had to washed out do you remember? >> you had ge, cisco, these are the names that held up the best until the final innings of the bear market. as soon as you start capitulation in those mega-cap names, that's when the market was able to bottom a similar thing happened in 2007 the largest names at the end of that bull market, when those finally capitulated in 2008, early 2009, that's when the market was able to find its footing. >> take apple out of it. it may have fared birr than the other big megatech names and competitors, if you look at meta, microsoft, amazon, oh how the mighty have fallen
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what do you charts tell new is it time to get in? oar do you think it's still, no, still time to wait on the sidelines and wait for it to shake out? >> i think we need to sit on the sidelines, i think there's more downside risks the average stock is actually doing better, but going back to the study we ran looking at the megacap names, one common characteristic was, as soon as the bear market started to find its footing and stocks started to move higher s. the megacap names did not participate in the up side coming out of a bear market low so for right now, we're you have the opinion that leadership will change, and leadership has been changing through bear markets. those are not the names you want
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exposure to. >> so you're also recommending that people also walk down the ladder in terms of market cap. my question is, if it's holding up better, is it as good a deal? >> i think we saw a lot off small caps if you look at the indices that kicked out months in front of the s&p 500 so a lot of the selling pressure has already transpired it has already taken place the last seller has already sold so i think, you know, we call it the fifo method of bottoming, first to experience weakness should be the first names to start the recovery and small caps were the first area to see the weakness we believe they should be
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recovering first, we're seeing that on a relative basis >> fifo, i like it >> thank you. apple is cutting the outlook for the iphone shipments even with the supply chain-related warning. our nest guest says it will remain a relative safe haven with us, is tom forte. good to see you, tom first of all, set the scene for how problematic this is. i'm especially curious, with this warning about the iphone, especially the 14 and the 14 max. aren't those orders already in for christmas, the phones they're expecting to sell over the holidays haven't they already adjusted for that >> sure. so basically, when we saw the iphone 14 lineup, our original thesis was that despite a more challenging macroeconomic environment on an improving supply chain, the 14 should
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outperform the 13. so apple over the weekend essentially found china's covid zero policy and how that's having an impact on the supply chain today for the iphone 14 generation it does look like iphone sales may come in weak are than expected. >> when you're looking at -- apple is downa percent on the day right now. i'm looking at it over here. the fact that you've got supply chain issues and warnings, do you think the warnings about the supply outstrip what appear 8 anticipate for demand for these particular phones? >> so the fact that the warnings are coming, you know, essentially day, not december 31st or not december 10s, suggests there's still time for aprille to make an adjustment. i think apple realizes longer term, the over-reliance, you're
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seeing that to the extend they're moving some of the supply chain efforts to india. as it pertains to the fourth quarter, it's clearly a challenging quarter for apple. it doesn't necessarily mean the fiscal year end they won't have a chance to recover, as hopefully conditions improve in china, but it does -- for the most significant product. >> are people going to have to wait longer for this phone >> absolutely. the good news, if it is good news, i guess, customers, especially for the macs, especially for the pro, have realized that they do have to wait, they can't get the product immediately so perhaps the wait is a little longer, so maybe that is the silver lining for apple. we have grown accustomed to having to wait for the pro lineup >> so what does it do potential to the earnings? is it a material dent or not
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>> the dent would come in it flat-out lost sales, not just revenue moving into the march quarter for the december quarter. i think the good news, even with the supply chain description, their earnings have held up reasonably well. this seems to be more of a march quarter revenue versus a december quarter revenue >> you call apple the best house on a bad big-cap tech block. i guess if you have a price tart of 167, part of it is the potential upside. >> if you take faang, add microsoft and tesla, you're talking about $3 trillion lost market cap i've been covering equity since '96, and have never seen anything like that, but when you compare appearing with meta, with amazon, google, they're the
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best house in a big-cap tech block. they're not overweight to advertising and they're under pressure they're clearly the best house for megacap tech stocks. >> tom, thank you. good to see you. >> thank you coming up, business on the ballot the stakes are high for energy policy we'll like at the potential changes and impact on rices if the house and the senate flip to the gop. plus the biggest wild card for investors. it's not the midterm, or stop strategist weighs out on where
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welcome back democrats are worried about how inflation will influence voters in this year's midterm election. whether they put all blame on the white house and the democrats at the polls tomorrow, but the president is shifting responsibility for high prices to the oil companies, pointing to energy as a big reason that prices have shot up so much. pippa stevens joins us with more on the inflation blame game. pippa? >> that's right, contessa. president biden has accused the
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oil and gas industry of war profiteerings. chief in focus is how many they're returning to shareholders relatively to how much they're investing in new production, and data shows that -- that's down from roughly 80% in 2014. as you can see, companies have all right started to reduce spending prior to the pandemic at the same time, capital returns via dividends and buybacks is growing across the industry, now accounts for roughly 30% of cash, going to shareholders that's up from roughly 15% in 2013 now, during the third quarter, exxon posted record net incoming of $19.7 billion chevron reported 11.2 billion in total earnings during q3, the highest ever apart from the-second
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they results follow record losses during the pandemic this year exxon plans to spend roughly $22.5 billion on cap ex. the white house is focused also on buybacks, as companies have more cash on hand. exxon's repurchase $10..5 billion worth of shares this year chevron has spend $7.5 billion on buybacks through the end of september. wall street seems to like what it's hearing, with both stocks hitting record highs today. >> energy policy just one of the ways the midterm election could ripple through wall street according to our next guest, a split government could lead to oil permitting reform. investors could see more --
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isaac poltanski join us with his midterm playbook let's assume for the moment the gop rolls in the house and takes the senate what could that mean for permitting and energy complex? >> i think we can expect some permitting reform. this is pretty straightforward -- >> is anyone hearing isaac >> yes go ahead, isaac. we're listening. >> we were always expecting, at least the gop house next year, but with the gop senate as well, i think we could expect some degree of permitting reform next year i think that's also going to come through a lot of oversight. what i'm hearing from republican contacts is there's going to be a lot of hearings on everything from why was the keystone xl pipeline canceled, to why can't we get more permitting on
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federal lands for oil and gas? i think all of that is going to help on the energy production side, but we've got to keep in mind, there's only so much that can be done in a divided government scenario. there is no panacea for energy prices, at least in the near term. >> and obviously you have a perfect recipe, it would seem to me for gridlock. the gop may want to do things, but you still have a guy in the white house that still has strong power, the veto power, and the ability to execute or not execute executive actions in that area. >> i can't imagine the relationship between the u.s. and china and the rhetoric could get much more than it already is >> yeah, look, in china, the reality is there's no reason whatsoever to expect any thaw in u.s./china relations, from cuban right concerns, to trade
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policies to taiwan, there's any number of areas where you see a deep, deep divide between both beijing and washington that divide is going to main tan, no matter who's in control at really either end of pennsylvania avenue. the way i think about this is it will be an ebb-and-flow situation. where you'll see moments the adr agreement, for example, between the accounting authorities here and beijing, which i think is seeing some positive movement the big-ticket items like trade policy, in particular, you're not going to see a softening. my fear is when we get to the back half of 2023, we're going to hear a whole lot of china hawkishness. that's because folks will be getting ready for the presidential election in taiwan, and folks will be gearing up for the presidential election here you throw all of that together, i think the back half is when
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you'll see a rant in the anti-china rhetoric here in the u.s. >> that may provide some bipartisan opportunity for whoever isin the house and the senate what about in health care. could you see something similar, an opportunity for these two -- i mean, very divided views to try to work together on areas like health care >> you know, what i found interesting, we aren't re-litigating the obamacare wars nearly as much as we used to it's constituent part of the talking points, the rhetoric, but no longer the number one issue for the republicans. i think there's small airs of agreement, in particular telehealth and mentality health are where you could see some movement over the next two years. anything betterer than that will be impact, given divided government and the way we think numbers break down any movement i think would be
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good, and it's something that's necessary. >> some gop candidates and commentators have been taken over on the woke -- i get the rhetoric, but what kind of policy might be there be on that topic? or will it just be rhetoric? >> it's rhetorical wars. all of us need to get ready for this for the next two years. once again, the campaign or the next election begins later this week the campaign for 2024 begins right after this election. a lot of d.c. and a lot of my coverage and everything will be trying to parse between rhetoric and reality. on the esg side, i'll say this we spent about ten years working on this. the "e" portion is pretty clear, but it's not clear how the "s"
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and the "g" portions interact with it. perhaps that's going to advance the debate perhaps in certain areas i think you could end up complicating the waters, especially if we see pushback over things like the s.e.c.'s climate disclosure model, which companies will already be struggle on how to deal with. >> i looked forward to speaking to you for many times. it will be a fascinating times isaac boltansky, thanks good. we'll be discussing these issues live on cnbc tomorrow at 7:00 p.m. eastern, a special brat guess whos back? mac again. mattress max, $75 million winning world series bet, great for him, report setting around the globe, but this could hit caesars where it counts. it's noted only casino to say
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the dow is much more that 400 points the three major indexes sitting right around session highs at this hour. we've got about 95 minutes left in the trading day, contessa. >> mattress mac grabbing the headlines for his record-setting payout on wagers that the astros would win the world series he was right the mogul from houston told me after he pays back the initial bet, he'll essentially break even that might be true for the sports books, tro. they took the wage, and caesars, for instance says it paid out $30 million on mac's initial $3 million bet, describing it as the biggest single payout on a legal sports bet in history. the ceo said the digital business is on track for a profitable quarter, except for
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mattress mac penn's ceo said the same things on his earnings dahl, barstool sports book will may on the $10 million on the book, and said the sports online business otherwise would have had a profitable quarter if mattress mac wins, he said they'll likely break even. we watched draftkings plummet almost 28% on the day, because jason robbins has doubled down and said that profitability would likely be fourth quarter of '23 when his competitors have come out and said, we might actually be profitable fourth quarter of 2022 they have thrown down the gaunt let. investors are putting pressure to prove profitability, and all the draftkings has is really the sporlts books. >> and fantasy sport they have these ancillary businesses that are not necessarily meaningful to the
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bottom line, but the focus is the growth of the sports book business, and how do you turn it around, and rein in the expenses >> the biggest with us caesars $3 million, but he with with win bet, barstool and others. >> once he gets paid back $10 million, he'll just break even on the bet why? the bets are a hedge on his furniture business promotion he told his customers, if the astros win, and you spend more than $3,000 on a mattress, you get your mattress for free, so he goes back and paying all these customers. >> i see. >> the sport books love him. he gives them a lot of promotions the industry likes him he highlights responsible gambling, only gambling what you can afford to lose, and also doing it legally that's all messages that
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resonate good for mattress mac, and we'll see what's next. brian sullivan has the cnbc news update. >> thank you here's what's happening at this hour nbc news reports another american has died in ukraine griffin was killed in action during a counter-offensive in arizona, a 9-year-old is facing felony charges for allegedly bringing a gun to school police say they found a load the firearm in the back pam. police originally sought charges against the parents for not doing enough to skew the weapon in their home. local prosecutors dropped the charges, saying chances of a conviction were low. forget about pencils s.a.t. tests are going digital they're making the change simplifying the tests, and shortening the time, fewer
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questions, more times to answer each u.s. students make the switch in 2024 international text takers go digital next year. i thought they were doing away with these tests, but parent they do still exist. not like our day, when we carved our answer on a piece of wood. >> oh, yes. >> with a bowie knife. >> absolutely true a lot of the schools are test optional, as i'm sure you know they either accept them, some encourage them others say we don't even look at them. >> i would be optional our next guest says the s&p could fall another 5% to 10%. a mover, call and key earnings report.
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just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can.
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>> this is a very impressive -- the last half hour, the dow has moved 150 points, s&p 20 points or so. unitedhealth up eight. am guinn is up, boeing is up $6. what you want to watch is tech apple has gone positive. it's been negative all throughout the day, but microsoft up $6, that's a good move meta is one of the best performing after a horrible week boy, this is a really broad rally overall. i know everybody is focused on tech, but the real big performers last week were energy and to a lesser extent, healthcare names chevron is helping the dow marathon, schlumberger, diamondback at new highs, those are holding up well and
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outperforming the last week and a half the other group is generic health care, lilly, cardinal, biogen, gilead sciences, all at new 52-week highs. tesla is at a new low. just broke 200 tesla was $400 in january. it's half of that right now. a lot of reits is an ongoing story. very interesting afternoon start to go shape up here. >> bob, thank you. let's talk about the bonds yields are rising. the at any time-year right around the 4.2%. as you can see, the two-year at 4.72 that's well off the 15-year high it hit last week, and then let's move to the price of oil, slightly lower today, right around 92 for wti, just under
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100 for brent. oil markets hanging on every word out of china, going up when china seems to be ready to loosen covid restrictions. there you see wti crude down 0.83%. chinese health officials say they're committed to this strict containment approach nat gas prices are up more than 9%, a one-month high on forecasts for a cooler november. our next guest says the s&p 500 could fall another 5% to 10% from here. megan shoo, good to see you today. why do you think the s&p 500 could go down another 5% or 10%. >> thanks, confessa for having me i think the way we think about it is we've talked for a while about the risks of recession
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being elevated we now have moved or base case to expecting a mild recession in 2023 the way i would look at it, if the bottom is in, it would be pretty unusual to have bottoms this far ahead of the start of a recession, which we expect to be a first half, possibly starting in the first quarter of 2023 story. so i think the timing is off for the bottom to be in, but i don't think we need to go much lower than we have already seen in terms of the drawdown for the s&p 500, which at 25% for this year, max drawdown, is very much in line with the average for a wild recession we don't expect anything nearly as severe as what we saw in the last few recessions, you know. we expect some softening of consumer spending, cap ex, but the job market is so tight right now, it's hard to see really massive layoffs happening in the economy. so i think we're talking about a
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short, fairly mild recession, and there could be further down side, but we're not getting defensive at this level. china is a huge wild story it's something that we've been watching carefully along with the geopolitical risks, whether it's conflicts with the u.s. over tech trade, ear even a risk to taiwan, there were some inflationary risks i think oil is a big story there, 2022 is one of the largest declines in oil consumption that we have ever seen so if we look at a return to growth, which is what the eia
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expects, we would be looking at increasing demand. that would lead to some higher pressure, basically a continuation of the climb higher in gasoline prices we have seen in the past few months. >> if i put together a couple of the things you've said, i come up with you think it's a mild recession. you think the market may go down, there abouts this would all imply that you think interest rates will continue to go up just a bit how high do you think interest rates need to go to kill inflation? >> interesting le we don't expect the treasury used to move
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too much higher. we think it's more likely we see a further inversion of the curve. if you're looking at what is most important as well as what markets price off of, it's the longer rates, we could see some mod zesting in in the ten-year treasury yield, maybe 4.5, but i don't think we have to go further than that. i think the economic story will just weaken that we'll -- >> but the fed funds rates you see going up 4.75, 5, maybe even above that, and in that you have good company in the form of larry summers. i know you recently added to fixed income from cash i guess that's because you see it as paying a better rate, number one, and that most of the interest rate hikes may well be behind us. do i have your thinking correct? >> that's right. one of the things that's so
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painful is the speed with which rates have adjusted. we've heard that from chair powell, so even if we get some modest -- no -- and lower rye it is rates should be tolerability, you know, definitely better returns for bonds and investors. if you have a mild re session, and another small leg lower in equities, we would expect fixed income to be that diversifier that it was not in 2022. so we wanted to increase a bit of exposure there and make sure we have a full allocation to buy. >> meghan shue, we appreciate it. >> thank you. a clean start, a company that's removing emissions from a
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the drive is on to reversion that diana olick looks at one option. hi, di >> hey, ty cement is the glue inside it, and its production account for full 8% of global carbon emissions. one start-up is using the emissions themselves to create a cleaner cement >> we've done what nature has done to form coral reefs we absorb ceo2 and absorb it to, so it takes the ceo2 that's emitted when limestone is heated and basically recycles it back into cement. there's a lot of companies claiming to make cleaner concrete, but gilliam says they don't address the problem at the cement level, which is where vast majority of carbon is emitted. he says this also reduces cost >> for us from day one, it's
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been about making a product that can compete economically they're building the first plant. >> we put about 1.6 tons of terms in, and one ton out. another 0.6 of a ton goes out and co2. to nail down the carbon reduction we're striving for, we need a technology to sequester that carbon before it goes up the stack. >> reporter: total funding so far, $35 million and pour terra's ceo says it will get a big boost from incentives from the recently passed acts, but it will take times. it's a three-year process from start to finish. >> i learn something every day i had no idea that cement was such a contributor to the carbon
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emissions, 8% overall. given all the new construction that's going on now, how big is the cement market today, and what does that mean for competition? >> it's actually a 4 billion ton a year product that means there's room for competition. not only is it a big carbon offender, it's also a climate hero on the other side, in that it's very resilient. concrete homes are resilient against climate changes, flooding, heat, cold, et cetera. so you're seeing more of it used it's just they want to make it cleaner. so there's a lot of space, as you would say, in this for competition. >> thank you, diana. still to come. could gaming, and this time i mean video gaming, not casinos -- be a bright spot for tech
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recent gains stock up 15% over the past week. the call is octkta and guggenhem says the stock is too interactive. with us the chief market strategist at miller tabeck. let start with boeing. quite a nice move for a long beleaguered stock over the past week or so >> no question, tyler, and it's -- like you said, long before were -- even before the pandemic hit the stock got knocked down in 2019, and the issues are still out thereto in front of it. to a degree, but they are starting to make some headway there. that's one of the stocks, companies we always talk about being too big to fail. boeing is too important not to succeed. we only have two airplane manufacturers in the entire world, so we need to keep them around plus, of course, the world is, you know, not so safe right now
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and they are an important defense contractor so the government wants to help thumb out. also on the technical side of things, the chart is looking very interesting made a nice little double bottom here over the summer and in the fall this rally here has taken it above its 200-day moving average for the first time in a little while. if the stock can get above that 140 level, that's going to really help the stock break out and for a long-term investors, again, a stock that's too important not to succeed it's one you want to hold for the long term. >> matt, let talk okta next. stock is down 80% this year. is it oversold >> there's no question that it's oversold, and -- but, you know, the one thing i got concerned about, i mean, it's also cheap we have 2 president 6 times recurring revenues, and that's good the one thing i worry about, of course, we still have the fed tightening their policy, and these technology stocks, you know even though they have nice revenues they don't have any
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earnings, and companies are -- it's just tough to get the stocks to really act really well if they don't have earnings, and i just think there are other names in the technology sector i know you've been talking about google or some of the big-cap names having a tough time but it's the cheapest it's ever been i think there are other areas in the marketplace that even though it's oversold and cheap, that i would rather have my money in when it comes to the technology sector. >> let's move on to take two interactive which like a lot of stuff has been tracing a gentle flat line for much of the summer into the fall. >> yeah. i'll tell you. it just got hit -- hit hard, but it was mostly in the spring, and as you mentioned, it's been trading sideways now it is getting oversold on a near term basis so that's helpful and, of course, they have their earnings coming out of the one of the things we do have to be worried about here they have this merger with zynga. we'll see how that's progressing. we'll hear about that. it's interesting the mba -- it's early in the
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season but it's getting a lot of notice this year and they have the new product, the 2k-23 which they expect good orders out of that -- good bookings out of that so we'll be looking to see how those look and then, of course, grand theft auto which has been unbelievable for them for many years they are coming out with grand theft auto 6, if in a can be good at all, the stock is so oversold, i think it will give us a good bounce one that i want to wait until i see the earnings gap is higher, that's okay should have a lot of room to run. i like that one more on a short-term basis going on a longer term basis. >> matt, thank you very much matt maley, appreciate it. >> taking a page from hollywood movies, if this one was good, nine sequels must be better. >> yeah. what a trip to the used car lot might tell us about the
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♪♪ welcome back to "power lunch. used car prices are coming down. that could shed some light on what we'll see thursday. dom chu joins us. >> reporter: dore prices, especially used car ups suffraged during the covid pandemic and supply chain issues, but to give you an idea where levels are at. according to car gurus which keeps an index of used car prices overall, earlier this past summer, we were talking about prices, kind of in that
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range, just about $30,800 per vehicle per used car we are now closer to just around $29,600 which means that we've fallen roughly 4% during that span just since the summer 4% doesn't seem like a lot, but we put it in a six-month span to show you how dramatic it has fallen from where it's been pretty much the better part of this year. if you look at a longer-term chart of those used car prices going back a few years, this is where the rub comes in, because over here is the current level i just showed you, that 4% drop. it's kind of tiny right there, right, you can kind of see it right there, and had a we're at right now is a level that is roughly going back to the summer of 202045% higher. >> wow. >> than what it was in 2020 fo used car prices, so as we keep these broader points in context, those are points people are looking at, whether or not this could be a sign of whether or not we're seeing a topping of inflation, not necessarily that it's going to come down wholesale, but that this is
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getting toughered and tougher to maintain these levels of inflation. one other place to keep a close eye on as we watch the used car trade, one of the big beneficiaries over the pandemic has been car parts if you look at carvana what has traded immensely, a used car resaler and its used car places have been viewed as topping out. could they have inventory at higher prices that they now have to sell at lower prices? that's a bear case for it. watch the other stocks we're talking about autoparts retailers. the more used cars cost, and used cars are hard to get, the more people spend it at o'reilly automotive, autoparts to fix up the old ones so if there something that traders are starting to talk about right now is whether or not you have used car prices possibly moving lower, what could happen to some of these stocks that have done so well because the used car prices are going higher? >> two other prices you might want to look for an impact look at the auto insure, all
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state and progressive, that they have seen what they have to pay out for claims because used cars are so expensive, and now because auto parts have been so expensive as well as labor, that there's an impact there. >> if there's a hypothetical easing, what does that mean? >> exactly. >> dom, thank you. >> you got it. thanks for watching "power lunch." "closing bell" starts right now. stocks kicking off the week in green right around session highs with energy and industrials leading the charge this is a make or break hour to your money welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen live from the new york stock exchange. take a look where we stand right now, up 400 points on the dow. maybe didn't see that coming with the apple news overnightp apple is one of the few losers in the session in the dow right now. almost every dow stock is higher, unh up the most and nasdaq also rebounding intense this comes off a wee
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