in half on carvana, saying they are not out of the woods the debt area is what a lot of people are focused on with carvana, and two earnings reports that are important after the bell we get lucid, focus on production and deliveries, and also going to be the focus on production and delivery when rivian reports after the bell back to you. that does it for us on "the exchange," see you tomorrow. "power lunch" starts now welcome to "power lunch," everybody, i'm kcontessa brewer. stocks rally as americans head to the polls what's the best election outcome for investors, and the worst let's bring down the industries that could feel the impact. what started as a tussle on twitter ended with crypto exchange finance, acquiring fts's unit this deal could reshape the trillion dollar industry, and the story is strange, unfolding

as we speak. we'll have the latest details. >> thank you very much, and welcome, everybody the major index is moving higher this afternoon, once again the dow touching its highest intraday level since late august it had been up as much as 528 points earlier in the session. the s&p 500 and nasdaq are higher there you see the numbers, for the dow industrial, about 3/4 of a percentage point "wall street journal" reports that netflix is exploring investing in sports leagues and bidding on streaming rights. you know, amazon is already in that game with the nfl the stock is off its highs but up about 2%. volatile day for bitcoin deal that contessa just mentioned it initially rose on the news, but reversed course and is now, bitcoin is, by about 10% we turn now to the midterms. that's what's happening today. republicans expected to gain control of one, maybe both chambers of commerce, and if history is any guide, investors may cheer the prospect of

gridlock as the best outcome for the market early voting so far has been strong and ylan mui is covering that part of the story. kayla tausche looking at the biden effect on the midterms, and invesco's head of public policy is going to tell us what the results could mean for your investments. ylan, we begin with you. >> the country appears to be just as divided over how to vote as who to vote for about half of the elect rate plans to vote in person today but the other half plan to do it early. take a look at the numbers from the u.s. elections project 44 million people cast their ballot before election day, either in person or by mail. of the states that record party information, 43% of the ballots cast by democrats, 34% were submitted by republicans 23% were from another party. that break down is expected. democrats are more likely to vote early republicans are more likely to do it on election day.

it doesn't tell us which way the results could go it does mean it could take a while to count the answer. republicans and democrats are already suing each other over which ones to include, whether they should include ballots that were misstated now, the majority of voters, 68%. made up their minds in this election before september, according to nbc polling 10% said that it was in september. 8% said they decided in october. only 5% said they just decided in the past week and 7% said they still might change their mind. so guys, all of the ads that we have been inundated with over these past few weeks are here to reach an increasingly narrow audience >> you know, it's interesting because you have all of these ads reaching fevered pitch, and the polls show that people had already made up their minds. i'm curious when they go to the polls, how much are they looking at individual issues to inform their vote, and how much are they just looking at the party platform. >> clearly republicans have been

using the economy as a motivating issue democrating have been looking to abortion as a motivating issue but what the nbc poll numbers show is a majority of voters, 66%, are just voting for change. they don't feel like the country is headed in the right direction, and that percentage is higher when you look at women voters, and when you look at voters in swing states 3/4 of voters in swing states say we want something different and so i think this is really g going to be an election about the national environment, rather than turning on specific individual issues at least for the majority of voters. >> a lot of passion, a lot of fire you said something early in the report, it's very interesting. and that is that democrats are more inclined to vote early. those votes are generally paper ballots, they take longer to count. and this could account for what was described, i believe, as the pennsylvania mirage. >> the red mirage. >> the red mirage in 2020. where republicans go out to an

early lead because the automated voting machine votes get counted quick. that could happen this time. >> in pennsylvania, one of the issues is they're not allowed to start counting the early votes and mail-in ballots until election day itself. that's why you could see the process potentially get longer or drag on of course you're now hearing from both parties. if some of the mail-in ballots weren't mailed in correctly, that's what they're going to be fighting about in the courts this election is really close. all of those individual votes could make a difference. >> thank you for that. let's turn to kayla taukayla tausche t the white house. the question for a lot of voters is going to be did he deliver what he promised >> reporter: certainly democrat candidates believe that he did they have been embracing the biden agenda on the campaign trail, drawing contrast across the aisle and talking about the

deliverables for the past two years. most of the big items on the 2020 to do list did get tackled ent at least partially pardoneni pardoning federal marijuana crimes, vaccines, widely available. there's been a trillion dollars signed in infrastructure spending, though we should note immigration and child care, two major priorities got blocked or cut out in recent years. voters in this moment are guided overwhelmingly by the economy, according to that nbc news polling. those economic concerns exacerbated when the price of gas in particular rises, the number of voters saying the country is on the wrong track peaked this summer around the time that prices were hitting records. those polls improved slightly when prices at the pump started to fall, but after an up tick in

gas prices since around september, 72% of nbc's respondents now say that the u.s. is on the wrong track the administration has trained its focus on that statistic in particular they have been drawing down reserves until the end of the year senior officials acknowledge privately that prices are set to rise in the new year, contessa. >> i'm curious, when you're talking about the biden administration's economic policies, if democrats lose control of the house of representatives and/or the senate, do you have a sense of how much they will try to do to accomplish in a lame duck session what otherwise they might have tried to take two years to do? >> i think there are certain must pass items to keep the lights on in this country that they will try to get done in the lame duck session. no question that there's going to be a sprint to the finish line at the end of this year i have heard several senators talk about trying to pass a new package of ukraine funding before the end of the year so

that that doesn't get tied up. you know, contessa, no matter what happens, it's going to take the white house severalmo month to recalibrate and get points on the board in the second half of president biden's term, depending on what the competition of congress looks like i have heard several people who served in the administration, who served in the second term under president clinton, who note that in 1994, it took them at least six months to figure out what they could actually get done, and something similar could happen this time around. >> i don't mean to prejudge the possible outcome here, but it seems as though the democrats, at least early on in this campaign, put a lot of effort behind the abortion issue. was that in retrospect, a smart move >> i think it depends on who you ask, tyler jen psaki, the former press secretary who now works for this company at msnbc she went canvassing in pennsylvania, and said abortion

is and was one of the critical issues for voters, but it is behind the economy in most major polls and so because democrats did not have a positive message on the economy going into this election, you heard house speaker nancy pelosi say that democrats needed to change the subject, and abortion was the subject that they felt like they could campaign on. tyler. >> thank you very much an interesting evening, and probably next several days as those votes get counted. k kayla tausche at the white house. let's take a look at the best and worst scenarios for the investors with andy blocker, global head of public policy at invesco. andy, welcome. is there such a thing as a best outcome or a worst outcome from the midterms for investors and the market . >> historically, the third year of the presidency has done well no matter what the results are in the midterm but specific to your question,

the biden government post midterms has done the best we've shown that it's over 13% on average growth, whereas single party control, if that's continued, it's done the worst it's around 5% 5 to 10%, depending on which numbers you're using so that's the normal but i think we're in different times. there are multiple variables at stake here we have the federal reserve. they're the ones driving the markets right now, and so it's really about when they take off the brakes when inflation is under control and the economy goes in a different direction. >> i'm curious i mean, we have what passes for single party control now you have a democrat in the white house, democrat control in the house of representatives, and you have a tie in the senate that has broken on those occasions where it needs to be by the vice president. is that single party control or is it really, to me it's single

senator control. because one senator, whether it's manchin or murray or any of them can be that single senator who, you know, obviates or gets rid of the idea that there's single party control at all. >> i think that's a very good point. you've had two senators, senator manchin and sinema who have controlled the agenda for the democrats, and so -- but at the same time, at least if the democrats could come together, they could pass something on their own, and so you've seen president biden do both the bipartisan move as far as negotiating a bipartisan infrastructure bill in the first year, and also doing the inflation reduction act later this year. he has done both i think once control of at least the house goes over to republicans, he's going to have to take a bipartisan pack and then for the things he doesn't like, he's going to have to veto. >> you know, i've been covering elections for a long time, and what really struck me about ylan saying 66% of the voters just want change. they think the country is going

in the wrong direction, it seems to me like every election, whether it's the midterms or presidential election, the country feels like that, that there's a sense that we need to change for business, if that change includes congressional gridlock, can it still be a good thing, andy >> well, actually, it can. so when you have gridlocks, so to speak, what you're really talking about in the biden government is you're reducing the spread for what i call policy volatility. there's not much you can mess up going too far to the right or left and there's less uncertainty about what will happen so in this congress, whether the republicans just take the house or take the house and senate, there's a limited amount that can be done, and my default is going to be no, most things can't get done, and there's going to be a sliver of things that can be done >> if the gop takes at least one of the houses of congress, let's say the house, and maybe they

get both, i don't know but what do you expect to see? one of the things i would expect to see would be a debt ceiling blockade or blockage like we had in 2011. back then it was absolutely shocking the idea that we would default on the debt. i think it's still shocking but i think we've all been down that road before. that would be one of the things that would occur to me that would happen no doubt. i'm sure there would be efforts to impeach somebody somewhere somehow. i don't know who it is could be the president could be the secretary of state. could be the attorney general. who knows. but debt ceiling matters to the markets. >> you're exactly right, tyler all of this other stuff. whether it's congressional oversight. impeachment, even a small government shut down that's noise in the short-term the real concern for the markets would be if in the second half of this year when the debt ceiling is set to expire or move beyond, have to be raised, it

could really cause problems in the market, and so we're looking at if it's just the house that turns, that could be real problematic as far as the debt ceiling negotiation because it would be the house republicans working with the senate, democrats and biden. if it's the house and senate, you're going to have mcconnell involved, senator mcconnell is experienced in this, able to strike the deal with obama in 2011 if it's just the house, you get a little dicey. >> andy, thank you very much we shall see we'll know a little more tonight and a lot more by the end of the week andy blocker of invesco, we thank you. tune into cnbc's special business on the ballot coverage. that starts tonight at 7:00 p.m. eastern. we'll discuss the key market issues on the line with this election. coming up, a public view between ftx and we'll have

details on what has been some crypto confusion plus, is disney streaming service on a path to profitability? what investors can hear when the company reports earnings after the bell. and before the break take a look at the nasdaq which has now tuedegivafr rn nate te has now tuedegivafr rn nate te rallying more than i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. 1%. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com we'll be

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back to "power lunch," confusion in the crypto space. binance, all of this after what many investors initially thought were growing tensions between the companies ceos the chaos in the space just adds to the laundry list of problems facing crypto. kate rooney understands it all and is here to make it simple for us to understand as well hi, kate. >> there is a lot going on here. we'll start with the headline, binance is bought ftx.com. the international side of the crypto empire. separate from ftx u.s. but the international division brought in 95% of the company and pairing company's first quarter revenues the moneymaker there the deal has not closed yet. saying they need to do due diligence, and says this was sparked by a liquidity crunch, which you can say was sparked by

the binance ceo and recent tweets sold equity in the last round as part of the payout it got a cryptocurrency called ftt, that is created by and closely tied to ftx. it's down about 75% in the last day or so. and the binance ceo tweeting they were divesting all of its holdings in the cryptocurrency we have the chart here now, ftt down about 70% just today. this came right after a report a couple of days ago from coin desk that called into question, alameda research's balance sheet. that is a crypto firm, with very close ties to ftx. sam bankman freed responded in a tweet saying a competitor is trying to go after us with false rumors he said at the time, ftx is fine assets are fine. for one, in terms of the outcomes here, it creates a massive global megaexchange by

combining these two companies. ftx, and sam bankman freed have played a role. bought voyager out of bankruptcy and those deals have not been signed yet technically will go through. >> maybe i'm shallow here. in fact, i'm sure i'm shallow. if he's saying everything is fine, that's not when you sell 95% of your company or your company's revenue stream. >> yeah. so that calls into question the tweets over the weekend. we have seen this play out time and time again this year with crypto companies the celsius ceo essentially say the same thing and shore up investor confidence. part of the issue here, customer withdrawals when people see or sense some sort of fear on the platform, if they don't trust there's enough assets backing up their money, they're going to take it off your platform. as ceo and leader, you want to instill the confidence clearly not enough confidence at

this point to keep the company as a stand alone clearly needed the money here. >> bahamas for bankman, the parent company is technically in antigua. most of their business is overseas, despite sam bankman being one of the political donors and very active binance was founded in china, based in singapore, though headquarters are a remote first company so they don't say exactly where the headquarters are. but founded in china. >> don't say exactly where the headquarters are. >> there are times i would like to do the same thing. >> oh, yeah. okay. >> kate, thank you for that. appreciate it. >> thanks, guys. ahead on the show. consumers are paying up to go out. the ticket broker vivid seats reporting a record revenue

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time now to look at big names on the moove today let's start with one often on the list that would be tesla. the stock continuing to slide. losing about a third of its value in the past two months today hitting the lowest level since may of last year also issuing a software update that's kind of a recall for 40,000 vehicles for a potential problem with power steering. let's move on to apple slightly lower today morgan stanley maintaining it's overweight on the stock saying there might be an opportunity to buy the dip. the situation with the iphone's production, that's going to be key to watch also cutting the price target by $2 a share to 175. similarly ubs maintaining its buy rating but lowering its target by $5 to 180 a share. the stock right now at about 137. and this just hitting in the last few minutes

fedex going negative as reuters reports the cfo says the company is cutting back on its vendor head count and will defer a number of projects that stock down about a half percent at 158 and change, contessa. let's get to brian sullivan for a cnbc news update. >> georgia election officials say voting in the state is going smoothly they say wait times to cast ballots are averaging just about three minutes. most polling stations have no wait times at all. one senior official calls the voting so far quote spectacularly boring and says he hopes it stays that way. in milwaukee, absentee ballot counting has begun they start the count before election day but the bill failed to make it through the state legislature. results from all of wisconsin have often been delayed while milwaukee ballots have been counted. hurricane warnings have been posted for the east coast.

tropical storm my coal has strengthened with winds up to 60 miles per hour nicole is expected to reach hurricane strength before approaching florida. large parts of the state are expected to get 3 to 5 inches of rain some areas getting up to 7 inches of rain, guys so florida, just still in many ways dealing with ian. the eastern side of the state, my folks are on a cruise ship off the bahamas, and i checked it out, i would imagine that ship is rocking around a little bit. >> don't go a knocking, then, you know, if the cruise ship's -- okay >> and the dramamine >> ahead on "power lunch," what streams may come disney set to report results after the bell the key numbers investors are watching for. investors are also waiting on election results and the latest read on inflation even if the market gets what it

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stocks, bonds, commodities, and disney results coming in in less than two hours let's talk about that in a minute let's check on the market where a big gain in the dow earlier today has turned into a minuscule gain of 35 points, up more than 500 at the bye nasdaq has given it all back, and it's down 3/4 of a percent, s&p similarly in the red by about 15 points. bitcoin continuing to fall down. let's see there, that would be about 15% right now. this following the ftx drama that kate mooney reported on just moments ago let's turn our attention now to the bond market and rick santelli there he is, rick santelli, slipping right in, brother. >> i'm good, man. >> popping right in. >> if we look at what's going on with treasury yields, it's quite important to tie it, hook it into last week's important movement if you look at the two-year note yield and the far left of the screen, you could see it popped

up, and it's been pretty much sideways and clipping off historic high yield closes any type of a yield close that's lower on the session we're now back about five basis points if we look at ten-year, and go back to last thursday, look at the bottom there this is important. we have good support at this 410, 411 area. traders will use 410 as a rolling area to protect. maybe the biggest number of the month, over the lseveral months we have talked about this many times. guess what we had yesterday, or excuse me, today we had a three-month bill auction today, its yield, 4.12%. if we go to three months to ten, that flipped it back negative after four positive sessions it's inverted again, and

continues to be lightly inverted we want to pay closer attention and finally, the dollar index, it had a nice pop after the fed raised rates last week then the employment report happened on friday, and fit's been down, down, down, well over 2 1/2% lower and continuing to cave under global selling pressure tyler, back to you. >> rick santelli, thank you so much. oil is closing for the day, the only thing in energy that's moving today pip pa stevens following for a full round up. >> natural gas, the big mover as the roller coaster ride continues. cutting its 2022 forecast today, and sees the contract averaging $6.49 per mmbtu this year, which is about 6% below prior estimates. a mild fall has meant record amounts of gas going into storage. the coming cold snap could have changed price action a number of energy stocks on the move today, including solar

edge, the stock surging after the company posted record revenue during q3, noting extremely strong momentum in europe where revenue was up 90% year over year sunpower advancing over its earning results, which saw record customer additions. ceo, peter farsi telling me the strength comes down. relative to rapidly rising utility prices back to you. >> thank you very much. let's talk about disney which is trading higher after earnings ahead of the bell today. it's one of the worst performing dow stocks this year when it report, one of the key metrics to watch will be growth at the disney plus service rbc markets, a buy rating on the stocks welcome, good to have you with us what do you say about disney, and what do you expect when they report later today >> thanks for having me.

and on balance, we remain bullish longer term. a lot will depend on direct consumer we're focused on three things. at the parks, we see continued momentum, and believe the recent price increases speak to management's comfort level around forward demand trends and the about to drive up modernization. media investors have shifted their focus to streaming profitability over the last year management's commentary on the path to achieving its target at disney plus profitability in fiscal '24 will be key, and last i l of course, on core disney plus net ads, we think street expectations around 8 million in the quarter are reasonable based on the content slate and recently international market launches that said, you know, we do worry that the near term set up is less favorable because the december quarter seems to have fewer fireworks from a progr programming perspective than normal, and we might go into

charm issues in the u.s., along the price increase next month. hopefully we'll get an indication over the suspected subscriber growth trajectory in fiscal '23 >> you said the net ads will be what, and how does that compare with netflix it sounds like disney is doing much better? >> we think street expectations for around 8 million core disney ads are reasonable kn netflix's numbers were far lower. keep in mind, disney is in a far earlier cycle in terms of its growth curve it's still benefitting from international market launches whereas netflix is focused on growing penetration in the markets it's currently in. the opportunity set is a little different. >> why is profitability the target so far away i mean, it seems like disney has been in the content creation business pretty much longer than anybody else they come to the table with a whole library of entertainment

options ready to roll out. so why is profitability so far away >> because unlike a few other companies, like paramount, for example, disney's sole focus has been the pivot to streaming. you have companies like paramount and warner brothers and discovery who are opting for a multidistribution, multiplatform distribution strategy where they're using the content on linear and streeamin, at the same time, whereas disney is focusing investments on long-term sustainable subscriber growth for disney plus, and it's an intensive business to catch up to the likes of netflix, to grow a global business is certainly not cheap and when you look at the subscriber growth they have achieved so far, they're clearly seeing strong adoption and the roi on it so far. you really need to see that scale up closer to netflix's numbers and beyond in order to hopefully get to a break even

number like in fiscal 2024. >> can we talk about sports. we heard sports betting, there's speculation about espn and whether it could be spun off as an independent entity. bob chapek saying it would be not an operator but a partner. we got news aboutnetflix eyein whether they should be buying up lesser known sports leagues and putting that on so that they're bringing a must watch it live audience to the table. which it's competitors already do how does disney factor in that valuable espn audience and the importance of sports >> yeah, sports is central to disney's streaming ambitions, and i think actually early innings of seeing the full potential of streaming with sports could look like for the broader industry it's not just disney that's been involved with sports you've seen paramount with its sports portfolio. >> apple, amazon >> everyone's getting involved,

and when we think about the next leg of what really matters, what drives consumer responds to the platform but keeps turning low, sports is going to be a mainstay in the arena, and you know, certainly don't count disney out. espn is an incredibly valuable franchise, and i think, you know, that what to look out for over the next two years, i would say is how that evolves as disney takes more and more content away from linear and crops up espn plus i think the early days of seeing what disney could do with streaming. >> i was watching my virginia cavaliers yesterday on espn streaming, and to see the number of games, college basketball games they had was just amazing on their streaming platform. kutgun, thank you very much, we appreciate it. >> thank you. up next, despite inflation and recession risks, americans still seem to be paying for events and experience, but for how much longer. is the consumer raeready to

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lunch," retail ticket seller, vivid seats, record revenue helped by concerts, sports and theater business, though it missed on earnings expectations. of course we are hearing across the travel and leisure industry, they are spending more on experiences rather than buying stuff. the stock turned lower today, down about 24% for the year, and with a recession looming, is the outlook still bright here with is stan chia, ceo of vivid seats. good to see you. thank you for being here. >> thanks for having me. >> set the scene, if you will. you guys saw great revenues coming in. why did you miss on earnings >> yeah, you know, contessa, first i would say i think we've had a tremendous year. when you look at the quarter, i think across the board, we came in babove on consensus, $28 million for ebita in the quarter. i think we've continued to see strength across the business

that we're growing from a profitability standpoint as we look at the areas of investment, we're certainly cognizant that the marketplace, gw given the resiliency is more competitive than the past. >> we have heard it from hotels, casino, and cruise ships, the demand for experience, the demand for things that you can go and do in person is still very high regardless of the worries about recession. how long do you think that that lasts for somebody in your position looking at tickets for live events? >> yeah, i think it's certainly a hard thing, and probably wish i had a crystal ball for this. i think what i can say is with the, you know, kind of backdrop of, you know, i think weakness and potential weakness in the consumer sector, we have been rather resilient from that i think the excomponents have

proven to allow resiliency in the industry whether it's seeing the phillies for the first time in the world series since 2009, and then when you look at our business, you know, i think our strength of being, both growing, scaled, and profitable with a healthy blebl balance sheet. for consumers and investors alike, we present a really appealing opportunity for a resilient business, even against the current economic backdrop. >> you mentioned, gross order value, in other words, value of all the tickets you're reselling. is that right? >> that's right. >> and what percentage of the gross order value do you keep as revenue? what is your cut of that >> we take, you know, so we take between i'd say 17 to 18%, take rate is probably where we're at for the quarter, you know, we

did 781 or 782 million in gov, and on that we generated, 157 million in revenue for the company. >> what's busy, and what's going to be bigger, concerts or sports >> you know, i think in simvenn w general when we look at industry, the sporting category is heavier for vivid seats, we're heavy concert side major artists announcing tours for next year and the continuing excitement of returning to live events. >> is taylor swift a needle mover for you. >> we certainly hope she has a wonderful tour, and i think early signs are that users and consumers are really excited to go see taylor swift live i know my own wife is excited to see her live when she finally gets on stage next year. >> it's interesting that you bring that up because then i see here, sam, that minor league baseball is a big mover for you.

you're seeing something like eight times your 2017 levels >> yeah, i think we continue to be really excite about, you know, the consumer excitement about going to live events our appeal to consumers as you look at things we have invested in, whether it's industry leading customer service, the only loyalty program out there with a buy ten, get one free for users. i think all of those things combined with user excitement for live evens has continued to yield things, where the statistics are up significantly as part of our business. >> i think it's interesting to see how other sports that don't grab the headlines the way that the major league sports do are starting to perk up. >> family experience thing it's the lure there. >> and affordable. at a time where a lot of things, i don't know, i took my kids to a concert this summer, and i shelled out a lot of money for that maybe i didn't check vivid seats, but thank you for joining

us today we appreciate it. >> thanks for having me. > >>up next, why a cooling economy could be good news for economy could be good news for investors, andhat's only an estimated 15% of their valuation. do you think the market is overreacting? how'd you know that? the company profile tool, in thinkorswim®. yes, i love you!! please ignore that. td ameritrade. award-winning customer service that has your back. ♪ [christmas music] ♪ ♪ ♪ weathertech gift cards have the power to wow everyone on your holiday list. offering a variety of american made products. weathertech! nice! like floorliners... cargo liner... tablet holder... boot tray... cupfone...

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stocks are regaining steam

today. you can see the dow jones industrial up 233 points, the s&p is back in positive territory as investors await the midterm election results at one point the dow was up more than 500 points and at the low point, just 4 points cio of u.s. concentrated growth at ab joins us jim, good to see you today talk to me a little bit about what you think is driving market action today, and especially the way that midterms fit into that. >> certainly when we look at the midterms we're looking at divided government as the ideal outcome, so whether it's the house or senate we're somewhat indifferent. for investors that means nothing too bad can happen, both parties have to come together. to us that's a good thing and if that's the outcome tomorrow morning, i'll be happy. >> we waded our way through earning seasons, we're not over

yet. what's your takeaway about how that's affected investor sentiment? >> earnings season has been really choppy. we've had some nice winners in companies really performing well and some big losers in the big tech sort of complex, which has been in the negative category. it's been very mixed. >> and when we're talking about what the fed is going to do and how much they keep continuing to raise, is the market sort of shrugging off this news or do you think this still has a huge impact on the way we see stocks going? >> it's a huge deal. we've been fighting it all year long in terms of the fed raising rates, way more than we thought. it's almost like the family taking a car ride and the kids saying over and over again, are we there yet, are we there yet, and the parents saying not yet, not yet. but we're seeing signs that we're pretty darn close. you look at all the economic signals that are starting to slow down, not in the headline

data, not in the lagging government data, but happening and fedex is just the latest example today, talking about parking planes because the demand is not there. so are we there yet? we're getting pretty darn close. and i think that becomes an important turning point for the market because you're no longer fighting the fed at that point. >> so i hear you sort of suggesting that the terminal federal funds rate is somewhere in the 4.75 to 5.25 level. >> i'm really not that smart but we're probably getting close if that's the case and we're sort of seeing the light at the end of the tunnel, i think that investors can start valuing companies on their earnings prospects in 2023 as opposed to purely how high are rates going to go. and for an active investor, that's a really welcome thing for us. >> jim, thank you so much for your insights today. we'll have you back soon we appreciate it >> thank you. >> jim tierney up next, cldou the labor

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lunch."y a couple of stories catching our eyes at this hour, in most economic downturns it's blue car employees that tend to be the first to lose their jobs but in recent weeks a number of companies have announced job cuts at flagship offices and that has economists predicting a

so-called white collar recession, mid-level managers from the pandemic. i think of housing here, realtors, mortgage bankers, mortgage brokers, investment bankers also could be affected we've heard about technology companies and even some of the big retailers like walmart talking about cutting their office staff, corporate staffs as well. >> nin fact, elon musk had pointed out, it seems like there's ten managers for every one person coding, which really focuses on where are the efficiencies in the business if you're looking to cut cost and improve margins, then you're looking at not who is doing the producing of the valuable service or product that you're providing, but how many managers do you really need for those employees. >> and there was so much hiring, hiring has been so strong that maybe the pendulum swings back a little bit in those white collar areas as well, and who knows

about what will happen in the factory space and the more traditional blue collar areas. >> the thing that has kept me on pins and needles all morning long is not necessarily the midterm elections, but rather when are we going to get powerball numbers. officials finally announced the numbers that won for the largest powerball lottery in world history. more than $2 billion after the drawing was delayed last night, to give a participating lottery more time to complete required security protocols. this raised a lot of questions in my mind what are the security protocols? how did the state not have the proper -- and i heard there may have been two having problems. there's questions in my mind about this anyway, what we now know at this hour, about an hour before the markets closed, is that a winning ticket was sold in los angeles county the lucky ticket holder will be the winner of the largest lottery prize ever i did buy tickets and i am proud to announce that, yes, i, too,

am a winner. >> you are a winner. >> i may need that on repeat. >> you are a winner. >> i actually won the powerball. >> what does that mean >> i got the right number. >> you got that one right? >> yeah. >> but you've got to get five others. >> i didn't do that. >> would you take the annuity or the lump sum >> no, because i didn't think that made sense. in this case if you're going to get double your money over, i think it's -- is it 29 >> maybe it's 29 that's too long for me i can't wait that long give me the cash now. >> it's a proven growth record your trajectory is pretty good and, also, your annual annuity would be great to play be. >> you wouldn't have to worry about that, no, you would not. but you look at how it melts

down to $900 some from $2 billion, and then the feds take about 35%, 40% of that you end up with about $500 million. >> that's all right. a quick programming note, you want to turn into cnbc's business on the ballot special, tomorrow night at 7:00 p.m. >> they're going to be there at 7:00 tonight >> it's a great lineup you don't want to miss that. >> just to see them in the daytime. >> "closing bell" starts right now. a crypto crash spooking stocks and the market loses early gains. this is a make-or-break hour for our money. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen here is where we stand right now. tesla, more than 200 points. at the high of the day it was up 528 points what is contributing health care is having a good day. bowing and american express the biggest contributors s&p is only up about 7 points. at the