relative to affirm i like this one. i bought it recently, and it's trying to bottom here. >> guy adami >> such a great group tonight. >> and a big keyboard. >> huge. literally. thanks for watching my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welc welcome "mad money." welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but educate, teach and yes, at times criticize so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet m

me @jimcramer. the revenge of the old guard boring conventional companies are taking back the market the digitizers and disruptors are being burned at the stake. that includes today where the dow gained 334 points and the s&p climbed 5.6% and nasdaq advanced 4.9%. we have to acknowledge regardless of what happens in the midterm elections tonight, this market is going through something that's like the .com collapse incredible competition everywhere for the longest time, tech companies grew and grew and grew amazon owned e commerce and cloud infrastructure and microsoft and facebook owned social media and instagram netflix and salesforce and

workday service. they have their own separate domain where they were untouchable and started going against each other microsoft azure goes up against al s amazon services and google cloud that reported a horrible quarter tonight that i am stunned and addressing these situations with investing club members this evening in a very harsh way. h highly unusual for me. every software play wanted a piece of customer relations management they're all taking it. there are a lot of smaller vessels that digitize finance or auto industry including tesla that is a broken stock as underlying companies are in good shape and caravana fintech landing is just disastrous a firm reported a good quarter tonight but a weaker forecast. the ceo will be on the show

later on to explain upstart gave you a miserable forecast and it is being crushed sell, sell, sell, sell didn't say i didn't predict that one but i sure did get dizzy get some right and get some right. meta is the worst performing stock in the s&p 500 no wonder. it needs advertising and advertising dollars are in a short supply major layoffs expected according to the "wall street journal. i said this morning i think they start tomorrow perhaps worst of all is crypto crypto is a meltdown mode. some of these are in such dire situations that i actually don't want to comment on the players on air let me put it this way this morning, twitter, i said that a bet on bitcoin is a bet on the balance sheet of sam bankman freed a colorful character that seems to be the jp morgan of crypto.

poser? savior who the heck knows we do know this, the global market cap of all crypto fell below a trillion dollars today it was nearly $3 trillion at the height a year ago. you know that should make jay powell smile if the fed wants to crush all things speculative, there is nothing more speculative than cryptoib k-- crypto currency let's talk about who is winning. i'm sick and tired of being so negative no, i'm not. that disney revolted me. upstart. all right. i'm done with being negative who is winning how about companies that don't have much competition or at least the competition is so muted it can't disrupt the status quo you probably heard some of these. the crypto fintech stuff sounds like the theory pharma let's deal with that if you look what is really

working this market, here is two shockers johnson & johnson and lilly. every heard of those they depend on products with a low shelf life cardio, drugs, cancer treatments, medical devices and the consumer products business, i like that. they have trust. eli lilly has a diabetes drug. silicon valley says they cured everybody. then there is aerospace particularly boeing. this is one of the worst managed companies i've seen but that seems to be coming to an end when we see a stunning shortage of planes. not like airbus can fill the demand for the longest time we figured boeing would have to beg the chinese airlines to keep orders. now, i think the shoe is on the other foot because there is an aircraft shortage tank shortage booming travel business, china,

people's republic listen up. you're too late. stocks fire over the past six weeks as people realize they don't need china orders at all how about honeywell? there is a good company. buy now, pay now i like that. buy now, pay in advance. unlike the tech disruptors, they are benign it gentle competition. it harvard yale. there are two companies in the world that make large commercial aircraft at scale not about to be disrupted by some outfit in silicon valley not in a garage it on a big island in hydroxychloroquine caterpillar is in a similar situation. we're about to move tons of earth as part of the infrastructure bill. cat will have more orders than

it can handle and mark my words and same thing about deer. i know you're not supposed to buy caterpillar. what if there is so much infrastructure slashing around the laid off computer scientists and software engineers may not fit in the assembly line the computer science degree doesn't really help you on the assembly line but you know what? good those guys had -- they had their time they made their money. they made their fortunes meanwhile, we're seeing a remarkable performance from pepsi co and why not the costs come down to food, plastic cans, glass. next year pep will have rad d h radically lower costs and the semi conduct for is competitive. if it comes down to a choice of doritos or intel, i say make mine cool ranch. how about starbucks? man, you seen that horse that's incredible. it's been on fire. why? because it's harnessing

technology, thank you howard schultz to make cold coffee. cold brew is not what everybody wanted but starbucks couldn't make it fast enough and now doing it they're taking back an entire industry they almost lost that they invented. maybe the best example of a company that can't be disrupted even as the stock can't get much love at all because of recession fears is a company called new core this is the largest most efficient steel maker in america perhaps the world because the other guys, who knows their numbers. the poster boy for what i'm talking about. a company with a stock that sells for less than five timings earnings with a huge fourth quarter and bigger next year and i don't care about jay powell. how is this possible they can help gm meet goals because federal infrastructure money will go to the states to buy the steel from new core because they're the only game in town like microsoft in 1998.

remember that? how about the orders from the chips act? we could go on and on. there could be $100 billion invested in building semi conductor foundries. how about the fact they make the cheapest and strongest wind mill steel of the world i expect it will be one of the largest leading exports. nearly all competitors were downsized and going under, new core kept investigating the plants and people practically the last man standing. let me give you the bottom line. this market is full of people that haven't adapted to the new reality. they're looking to find the right level to buy snap and they want the carcasses of software as a service but me, give me new core steel holds up longer, more uses, they face little competition with the great stock teches and i'm restricted but i think this is a better stock to own for the club, the investing club than any -- well, no, i love the lilly and j&j you know what i mean i'm sick of tech bernie in pennsylvania, please,

bernie >> caller: hey, jim. big penn state boo-yah to ya. >> well, jeff loves boo-yah back at you penn state a lion. >> caller: yes, sir. >> i like sanders if you want to go there go ahead, i'm sorry. >> caller: i do, too i want you to look at workday. >> look, i think workday is a doing a terrific job but i have to tell you, i'm not that fond right now of the software companies that have high multiples. i'm looking for hardware companies that aren't in tech that have low multiples. listen, the market is full of people that haven't adopted to the new reality. we've been trying to get out of tech for months for the travel trut trust and tonight zoom falling with the broader tech cohort maybe the stock is poised to go higher after the fact it has a great balance sheet in zoom-topia 2022. let's get the latest from the cfo and the ipo class rough year

and after falling from the highs could portillos buck the trend i'm talking to the company's famous beef bust i prefer a beef bust to disney mi make mickey should be ashamed. the fintech meltdown and what the company has in the pipeline with the ceo. another tough one so stay with cramer >> announcer: don't miss a second of "mad money." follow @jimcramer on twitter have a question? tweet cramer #madtweets. send jim an email to madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a madmoney@cnbc.com or give us a call at 800-743-cnbc

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a whole entire software system collapsed truly systems but what about the names that have already come down huge from their highs to the point where you could argue that maybe they're actually value stocks take zoom video. yeah, the video conference play that took over the world during the worst phase of the pandemic. you see the stock crumble once the world started to go back to normal this thing peaked more than october 2020 and down 86% from those levels but and this is a very big but so many tech plays got killed. zoom stopped going down a few months at these levels far from expensive trading 21 times this year's earnings estimates and $5 billion in cash and $25 billion

in market cap. can they give us a reason to get excited and start buying earlier today zoom held an investor day the sideline is called the zoom-topia user conference where they made for the stock. before the event got rolling we spoke to the cfo of zoom video communications kind of like what i heard. take a look. kelly, i have to tell you, i'm astonished at what zoom-topia showed me. things like call centers things like being able to train sales people some of the apps that you have i want to give you the floor to explain to people that zoom is not some one to one conversational product we used during covid but an amazing platform for enterprise. >> thank you, jim. first of all, i'm excited to be here and you're exactly right a

great example of that is zoom-topia in hybrid running on our platform as you can see i'm here live with many customers and prospects but we have thousands joininging virtually so it's a great example in this new world how we bring people together both in person and virtually we're also super excited today to have announced email and calendar to allow customer to bring email and calendar into the zoom interface so they will be efficient not having to go back and forth and as you noted, we are so excited to continue to see growth and on going development in areas like zoom phone, which we are the fastest growing cloud pdf provider and newer products like zoom contact center and sales iq. and these are great examples of how we're continuing to innovate to meet our customer's needs.

>> let's go over what i regard as conversational intelligence, which is an extraordinary thing zoom has where you can literally look in and take a look at past interviews you can take a look at people can share interviews and can find out and see what might sale as a great sales tool. you have a terrific team to show how you can leverage zoom to get much more out of a customer. >> that is exactly right so zoom iq for sales is a great tool that allows especially sales organizations to understand and highlight how their sales teams are being trained. how they're highlighting their products and we continue to see growth and customers want to continue that. you can use it in your call center or even with my team we're doing interviews like this

i can go back and listen to it and use it to help myself improve. it's a really, really powerful tool to make sales organizations more effective and help highlight where they have opportunities for growing more revenue. >> kelly, i got to tell you, there is a grave thing that worries me some get zoom-topia and others say these either work or you're going to get sold because you have a lot of cash and the market cap is low. i'm looking at perhaps this is a true growth engine and that the growth engine is being ignored by wall street. >> you know, jim, the future of work has really changed and we are the company that helped define that and continue to support our customers in it. when you think about what we hear from our customers is their employees especially want flexibility and if you have employees working outside of the office even one day a week, you

need zoom meetings for them and products like zoom room to bring them together to ensure you have an inclusive environment zoom phone is a perfect tool to give them as it allows them flexibility. they don't have to have two phones they can have the cloud on their personal phone but have a separate phone number and then of course, when you layer in contact center and zoom iq for sale and email and calendar, we're getting a really expenseble platform that makes us an indispensable partner to our customers. i agree with you it's not binary. we're continuing to evolve we added 150 0 new tee featuresd enhancements in the last month and that will continue to have zoom be the partner of choice our customers love us and we think they will continue to use the platform.

>> last week we had alaskan and tulio, they got the customers. the final was good but once they got the customers in, the customers are cherry they're not willing to spend like they used to. is the zoom customer you obtain not willing to take on add additional products we're talking about? >> no, in fact we see customers continue to move up the stacks in terms of adding more and more products we have had 10% of our customers account for approximately 50% of our arr today which just shows you they continue to build on this platform and layering their products and it just makes it more efficient for their employees rather as you think about with the zoom -- within a zoom interface, they can do their calendar, their meeting, their phone, their email and makes it so easy and it's more efficient for the customers themselves because they can now start to limit the number of venders they're working with, which is great for it organizations to change management is really easy.

so we continue to see customers moving up the stack as they add more and more zoom product to their list. >> all right so when we think about zoom we think about microsoft teams like slack. these new products seem to be giving you an edge versus teams. i'm not sure whether you have data which shows how much customers enterprise customers like zoom with these different apps but head-to-head how have you been doing versus microsoft te teams? >> you know, we're always focused on providing happiness to zoom customers and habits and interfaces when they want to integrate with other products with other vendors and our relationship with microsoft is one of both partnership and competition and we continue to meet our customers where they are so that if they want to use

a combination of platforms, we'll enable them to do so. >> excellent thank you so much again for coming on "mad money" direct from zoom-topia seems like it's doing well for you thank you so much. >> thanks so much for having me, jim. >> that's the cfo of zoom. "mad money" will be back in a moment >> announcer: ahead, on "mad money", order up this food slinger's earnings

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neverarly every stock that became publish last year crushed. scattered among the landfill the ipo class of 2021.

there is portillo, the italian restaurant known for chicago style pizza. it came from $57 and high to the $20 and change from the ipo meltdown the actual company keeps putting up great results last week they reported a fabulous quarter, clean top and bottom line beat same stores sales growth even though the analysts were looking for over 2%. the stock is gaining momentum of late up nearly 15% over the past four weeks today the company held the inaugural investor day so we figured it's a good time to check in with the president and ceo of portillos and bought the famous food with him pleasure to see you here. >> thank you. >> in person. >> thank you so much we're honored to be here. >> i had the great pleasure to go to one a few weeks ago and i said to myself and i said to my wife, i've always looked for stocks where there is something good in region that plays it can be all over the country.

i have found it in portillo's but why is it so darn good >> we talked about this a little before the restaurant business can be super simple you give people amazing food, abundant portions at a great price and great experience, it's a beautifully self-fulfilling model, right it's as simple as that we top that with taking great care of the front line team members. i hope you had a great experience i hope the team was amazing to you. >> my wife wanted to tip everybody in the process it's a proprocess. you go around. >> that's part of the magic of experiencing portillo's. we have the front order taker who hopeful ly helps you figure out what to order and theater, you're watching somebody snapping a bag, making hot dogs, dipping the beef on the bread. there is a little theater as you go and when they actually send your food, hopefully they gave

you a little ryme like hey number 55 with a smile. >> always spotless, too. >> yes. >> even the floor. >> yes. >> arizona, indiana, texas, california you're in central florida. you couldn't be everywhere even eventually right? how many do you have. >> today 71. tomorrow 72. we will be everywhere. i think this is a concept that travels. i told the analyst today that our numbers as gotty as they are, we have 6.4 million average with 20% restaurant level margins. that's a great restaurant concept by itself. >> it's unimaginable people need to know an average store makes nowhere near. >> right. >> there is also something i found really incredible about your place we've got tremendous food inflation, tremendous. >> right. >> everybody talks about it.

you've managed to keep that price relatively low. >> yeah. >> even though it is clearly a bargain to begin with. >> yeah. so $9.75 is what the average person spends at portillo's. >> i was right there. >> we're purposefully lagging the price of competitors because in times like this when c consumers are feeling the pinch and tight, we'd rather get business, traffic, repeat visits than necessary buff up margins for a quarter or two we'll price appropriately but in the near term that value proposition keeps people coming back to portillo's. >> do people understand there are a lot of places in chicago that do similar things. >> yeah. >> i'm from philly the philly cheese steak never travels. i don't buy outside philadelphia because they stink this works why is this taken out of chicago land >> there is a universality to the food a hot dog is a hot dog

people love hot dogs a beef sandwich, we tell people italian beef sandwich, i want you to try one. >> try one i had two when i was there a couple weeks ago. >> it's a roast beef sandwich on delicious bread with au jus. >> at the same time, you were so transparent, you talk about construction delays, siting problems labor is not easy to get. >> right. >> but you do something with labor that is incredible and you and costco, the only two companies i heard say it people don't leave when they go to work for them and that's the secret to profitability. >> it's a secret we talked about this our turnover at the hourly level is 25 to 30% lower than the industry our turnover at the management level 10 to 15% lower than the industry there is hard cost but a lot of soft costs associated with turnover we get to avoid a lot of those. >> you said it's dead weight loss that person is not ready. >> right.

>> you don't want them to be with the customer because the customer is used to smile and no tension. >> that's right. >> just amazing. now whether you look at the long term growth, people get to the 702 quickly and sacrifice quality. >> right. >> at what point do you say look, i can add ten, 15 but they have to be perfect i have to visit each one make sure. because you're a perfectionist. >> yes, i'm a micro manager. >> but i like that. >> so here is what our philosophy is right now. i want slow steady growth where every restaurant is a home run. >> don't let the wall street screw you up. >> we won't. >> don't let them screw you up with this. >> this is a secret. every restaurant we opened, opened with an experienced portill po portillo's manager i'm not opening it with brand-new people that don't know us. >> i got to tell ya, i think

you're definitely pulling it off. once again, i want to tell people that besides the fact how delicious it is, the profitability per store, is there any higher in the country? i don't know of one. >> because i got to please both the eaters. >> right. >> and the shareholders. >> yeah. >> and it's very rare -- maybe chipotle because i admire them. >> fantastic company. >> that's really about it. that's how special your company is. >> do you know what else we're a really young company in the sense of being public. >> right. >> there is a lot of opportunity ahead of us. >> i'm counting on you i got to tell you, i'm counting on you i told my travel trust guy this might be the one that's michael, the ceo of portillo's i didn't believe it until i went to one my wife said stop it already stop eating. thank you, michael great to see you. >> thank you. >> "mad money" is back after the break. >> announcer: coming up, where to begin affirm has some explaining to

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the financial technology apocalypse keeps on rolling a. year ago fintech was on fire in a good way now it's on fire in a burning to death way and the pain, it just doesn't stop. >> the house of pain. >> look at affirm, the buy now pay later kingpin. it lost 90% of the value because the lending business is a lot less attractive when the fed rapidly raises interest rates. affirm reported after the bell and turned in solid results for the quarter beating expectations

on every major line. the guidance was a lot less encouraging and that's killing the stock. management lowered the full year gross margin for revenue forecast both as well as operating margin forecast, which is probably the most important and signiuggests looking at lar than expected. not what wall street wants to see. it's why the stock is getting hammer in after hours trading because people are fearful but there is no degradation in loan credit, yet. maybe there is more to the story than meets the eye that's why earlier today we sat down with the founder, chairman ceo of affirm holdings to struggle about getting a full picture. take a look. >> welcome back to "mad money." >> thank you for having me. >> okay. so max, a lot of things good in this quarter obviously, taking a lot of share. doing a tremendous amount of business first, before we get into your guidance, just tell us how competitive the situation is and

how you're standing versus your peers. >> affirm, where i sit we're doing pretty great we took market share we grew a lot on every important met triric we care about and consumer frequency increased by 39% which is ahead of our plans. competitively, it seems like we are the occurring winner in the buy now pay later world. >> now you're conscious the stock is down. we have to deal with that head on you've always been straight with me and i know you'll be straight with me now. one of the reasons stock is down is gross merchandise you did say that the guidance of 20.5 which is below what you were -- the consensus was, 21.56 billion and down from the previous guidance, how important is that and should -- do you think that creates the kind of selloffs we're seeing >> it is not for me to comment

on how the market should react to my numbers. the guide is the guide. >> right. >> we forecast business fairly precisely i'd like to believe and obviously, we're in the middle of the beginnings of a downturn it's prudent to take that into consideration. we don't live in a vacuum but we're comparing to situations every day that are changing pretty wildly so, yeah. >> well, let's talk about what happens in a higher rate environment. i did not see any degradation of credit again, i'm not -- you know, look, to some i'm playing devil's advocate to the stock but because i look at credit, i would have thought it would have gotten much worse with rising interest rates i did not see that. >> funny you should say that i was watching your show last night and the buy now pay never meme got to me a little bit so i apologize. that's not us. i think the market has to figure out at some point that we are different. if you look at the credit results you referred to, we're

managing to the number that is exactly what it was before the pandemic, which before everything and that is because it's no accident it by design we're running the companies to goals we set for ourselves and have the control a lot of peers in the space do not to hit the numbers we feel we must hit so you're right it's independent of rates and everything we decide how much money we're willing to risk and what we're going to do about it and so far, we've been exactly just in control as we promised our shareholders. >> all right should we be concerned about the ad justed operating guidance of 7% to -- which is worse than the previous -- 7%, 5% is worse than the previous guidance of 6.5% to 4.5. that seems to have imply to me that things have gotten tougher in the business. >> so obviously, there is eventually and i think we started saying this as long as here, there is an impact

interest rates as they rise have on the margins ultimately they're not linear i think right now we're seeing that 300 base points movement of the rate has about a 10 to 20 base point movement impact on our margins. but we have lots of tools of investing pretty heavily in projects the second half of the fiscal year to make sure that our margins not just stay consistent but improve we feel good about that. that said, there is real impact just to give you a sense, i think the terminal rate prediction went up 150 basis points in the last two months, that's fairly impressive. >> the reason i asked is because a lot of companies decided including yours to prioritize profits and i want affirm to grow i want affirm to take share but i want affirm to be profitable is that in the near term is that the wrong way to approach the stock in the company? >> that's exactly the right way to approach the stock. i'll give you a couple of data points that should frame sort of

where we are in terms of quote growth and profitability first and foremost, profitability is still exactly in my plan and the guide and the forecast that i'm looking at is when we tell the shareholders it will be the end of fiscal year we intend to get positive. so that's still very much the plan and i intend to live around that but if you look at the 12 months that just wrapped upright now compare that to the last year as a private company, last two years ago this time we were just about to go public since then, 12 months and 12 months comparison, we've tripled our duty, tripled our active consumers, more than tripled them and doubled the revenue and tripled the revenue transaction costs. that's a great stock i think we've done well for less than two years of the comparison, that's pretty

strong and we're still projecting growth of 40% on gmb in this fiscal year and, you know, some really, really strong numbers so we intend to grow. we do not plan to slow down our growth we obviously moderate with rising interest rates and credit and manage the numbers and ultimately term profitable on schedule but we intend to grow and turn profitable. that is the goal. >> a previous guest another show said that affirm was going for $300 million abs for -- bet the asset back you were trying to get an asset back security that would give you 300 million and you decide the rates weren't right and you decided no to it i want to be very careful about this because some people interpret that as meaning perhaps affirm needed money that they didn't think affirm needed, i looked at it and said okay,

listen, if the rate isn't good i don't need that. a piece of property, why is that different than max saying i don't want to pay that price >> that's exactly right. i don't want to be gloop about it it really important people realize we're in a very dynamic rate environment the fed is committed to tamping inflation down, which is really important for our consumers and merchants so it's the right thing to do. that said, the rates are moving very wildly which means if the rates are up, which is fine. we can operate the business in whatever rate environment. the spreads are up, as well. as you go to the asset backed securities market, you price the deal in this case we premarketed a deal and decided the pricing we're seeing just wasn't as good as our other sources of capital and we have an exceptionally diverse very varied source of collection of sources of funding so we're able to run the business by going to another

source of funding and it flows and we're housing of our loans that can have bear economics -- >> that's what i wanted to hear because people feel you have only one channel that's completely wrong. now, there may be people say buy now, buy later, paypal has it, apple wants to move to buy now pay later. are you ready for all commerce >> paypal has becen competing with us for awhile i have respect what paypal has become it had little impact on our ability to grow, sign merchants, obviously 85% of my transactions come from repeat customers now entrance into the market feel very good about our ability to compete we're not resting on morals, we keep developing new products to make sure what we have is unique and special to our consumers. >> apple obviously going up against apple, nobody wants to go up

against apple? >> i don't think i'm going up against apple. apple is doing markets we've established and their user base is important and large to slightly different user base these people are in a much higher credit bracket than the ones we serve. we have coverage of majority of america 90 miles inland from coast. we're helping people who are actually revolving not to revolve. we're helping people who are deciding between buying a nice suit and a reasonable couch to maybe have both and feel responsibility about it. i think it's a slightly different demographic. that said, i believe the mpl is the right way to buy things. more people enter given apple choosing not to do late fees is a great thing and good for the industry. >> excellent thank you, as always a gentleman. gentleman. good to talk t

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♪ >> announcer: lightning round brought to you by td ameritrade. it is time, it is time for the lightening round, tell you buy and play the sound and then the lightning round is over. are you ready ski daddy? time for the lightening round. bob in california, bob >> caller: hey, jim, a big boo-yah. i hope your eagles go all the way. i consider you the chuck of investing with your two-way -- >> oh my god number 60. i got a shirt. sorry. historical reference go ahead >> caller: i'd love your opinion on chpp. >> i'm not recommending any stocks losing money even if i

think that they have something good to recommend. i can't recommend -- i can't lose money for people. it's killing me. let's go to bob in new york, bob? >> caller: hey, jim, boo-yah to you from up here in new york state from flclint, new york. >> i love clint. i'm a 46er go ahead >> caller: oh, okay. all right. yeah. >> most -- a lot of them in winter go ahead. >> caller: i have a question about -- >> i like it great assets i wish they gave you a bigger yield but great assets no, i'm not done victor in south carolina, victor >> caller: hello >> victor? >> caller: yes. >> you're up it's jim >> caller: oh, jim, hi this is victor from south carolina jim, great job i follow you diligently.

>> thank you. >> caller: technologies pltr -- >> sell. sell, sell, sell, sell, sell by the way, don't course when you're doing lousy, maybe you can curse when you're doing well but when you're doing lousy, shut up. annie in new york, please, annie? >> caller: jim big boo-yah from long i island. >> how are you doing >> caller: well. i want your opinion on alibaba. >> no. we have enough problems with american stocks. we do not recommend stocks of china that is communist and that, ladies and gentlemen, is the conclusion of the lightning round. >> announcer: the lightning round is sponsored by td ameritrade coming up, hope for the best, prepare for the worst. cramer goes around the horn of

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we're all worried about the consumer price intext when this consumer number comes in hot, stocks plummet on thursday we get the dreaded cpi reading and so often the case, the estimates seem low on a month over month basis, the cpi is supposed to be up .6% on a year over year basis up 7.9% we have x food and energy numbers at 5% month over month and 6.5% year over year. let me say i don't find this x food and energy basket very helpful. they call that core inflation because food and energy can be so volatile but if you look at what is really hurting the consumer the most right now it's food and energy. they're the ball game. look at the inputs here, they're coming in way too hot.

other than chicken wings, almost every food input is up, in some cases up big, dairy, cereals, ver vegetables have been non-stop higher as commodities have come down unless you shop at costco you won't get the benefit of the commodity declines because food companies have no reason to pass on savings energy is worse. gas prices have come down from june i know many democrats would love to slap a wind fall tax on the oil companies and they never had the votes to get it through the senate, wall street is worried about it but if the house of representatives goes tonight, maybe they will pump more with fewer washington worries $89 of oil not cheap i paid $94 this week to fill up. heating and air conditioning no better we talked to the ceos of two gigantic electric utilities and the increase in natural gas caused the bills of people in areas to sore.

that's bad for inflation that said, this is good news like portillo's food away from home has come down versus foot at home and gasoline declined slowly from last month but numbers aren't encouraging how about core inflation look at the major items like tools, appliances, floors, windows are going the right way. outlets clothing is cheaper. used cars came down sharply but still up huge from a few years ago. medical not going the right direction. let's step back. let me give you what i'll m wore about. executives put through two, three, four price increases in the last year, four. very few of them believe the price hikes will continue but the price increases that have already happened are far greater than the cpi estimates we're looking at i don't understand how the consensus takes higher prices into account the numbers come in too low like the people that put the forecast

together have never been to a super market i can't believe it maybe this time will be different. it could be. maybe cumulatively and maybe something broke well when it comes to cpi, i think we're in hope for the best prepare for the worst situation. i like to say there is always a bull market somewhere and i promise to find it here on ♪ ♪ welcome to the cnbc election night special. "business on the ballot. i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. tonight a deep dive on the business issues that play into business concerns. business is certainly on the ballot this year over the next two hours we'll be touching on inflation and the economy, labor, trade, regulation and the