as they pencil in slightly higher rates next year than they had anticipated recently he's kind of the axe now so we wanted to bring that right before we turn over the show to "squawk on the street. and you can see, 784,000 bit p-word. swivel swivel pivot make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next ♪ you like this? >> good thursday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer, david faber at the new york stock exchange, dow getting an 800-point bounce here on this cooler than expected inflation print. yields are sharply lower, ten-year below 4, markets starting to take 75 basis points off the table for december our road map is going to start right there from up 50 to up

800. futures are serving as october's read of cpi raises hopes that inflation has peaked plus, binance is backing out of that deal to potentially bail out ftx, which leaves that crypto exchange on the brink of collapse and leaked video showing mark zuckerberg addressing meta employees after mass layoffs hear what he had to say to his staff. let's get to this inflation number we were looking for 5. month on month declines, jim, used cars, apparel, medical care, airfare down >> yeah. look, i mean, there were important ones medical services really surprised me energy services surprised me used cars does not because of that manheim index i think that some of these are a little mercurial i have campbell's soup on tonight. i think food at home has gone up food away, outside, has gone cheaper. there's enough here to make

people feel like, wait a second, 0.75 is wrong. the two-year is saying 0.75 is wrong. if you really think, david, that this is the top, you don't buy stocks up here you buy this beautiful piece of two-year paper, 4.36 >> and you do that because >> because you actually get that, and you get your money back in the end. which is quite different from binance. >> maybe over time you're beating the rate of inflation. >> right that's what i think. i do want to say that our colleague said that this binance deal was not a done deal everybody else was saying it was. and i just applaud you, because you could have saved people millions of dollars. >> oh, thank you for that. we're going to spend a lot of time on ftx and where we stand now. >> it was not just because you recognized the fragility of when someone says -- >> yes yes. there was a lot going on at ftx.

again, let's spend a little more time on the broader market and the cpi. >> i watched all the reporting, carl everyone presumed it was a done deal except for our colleague. >> that's not at all what cz said in his tweet, but i guess some might have made that leap >> just trying to be nice to me today, carl. why don't you let him be nice to me >> cz's actual letter was absolutely like, this thing is no good. but i just felt there was a level of false security then caused it to drop down but bitcoin is going back up after you listen to what they said on "squawk" with gary gensler, head of the s.e.c., he just said, caveat emptor you're on your own you've got some things that you -- >> that's not based on the ftx situation. >> you can sell into it. what an opportunity. they're giving you a chance to sell into something that we just basically heard is worthless so, until tether breaks, i guess, that's the fat lady

singing, i'm just interested in selling that and selling some high-quality stocks that have been beaten down >> why not think about this as an doeopportunity to look at certain stocks we -- so often, we are putting up charts of companies whose stocks are down 50%, 60%, 70%, and they still have real businesses, perhaps not growing nearly as fast as they once did, and certainly not valued in the same way but is there, at some point, an opportunity? is that perhaps even today >> yes, i do as karen cramer says, yes, there is yesterday. when we work to the. karen, i say, what do we do here she says, why, is it yesterday >> yesterday was a good day to have bought nxp? >> monster had a great quarter service now had a great quarter. what do you want service now was great. >> i remember when he joined us. >> can't buy apple i don't know everyone tells me apple is going to have a shortfall.

>> foxconn, profit up year on year they're going to try to revamp production at this plant where people can literally only go to the plant and where you live >> i prefer not to be involved with the people's republic of china. i think there are unbelievable opportunities, david it's just that what you have to do and the opportunities to decide how much exposure they have to china, how much exposure they have to ukraine, how much exposure they have to slowing. carl put up an unbelievable tweet today. i spent about an hour on it, on that ch robinson it took an hour, but they have a definition and they have a glossary, and in it, they said, this decline was going to not start until next year. and now it happened. >> it happened can you bring all of us in your -- explain what you're talking about. >> carl printed a little story about ch robinson, which is one

of the largest freight forwarders in the country, and they felt what would happen is there would be a slowdown in freight. freight forwarding has been the single biggest enemy of deflation, and not only has it happened, but there's layoffs here, so you've got the single biggest force of inflation, forget the cpi -- >> starting to come down >> no, not starting to come down collapsing so, that is what makes me bullish. >> that's on top of fedex saying they're literally parking planes during the holiday season. >> laying off -- well, they're laying off white-collar, ch robinson, but we're talking about a surfeit of people post-pandemic in the most important -- used trucks go from $300,000 to $120,000 now down to $60,000, probably going even lower. those are the numbers that matter to me in the cpi. that's what costco would tell you. >> it's funny you bring up costco, because we are going to start getting earnings from a number of big retailers.

costco, we have heard from, but walmart and others i'm starting to get some anecdotal information that it's going to show the consumer slowed, particularly at the end of the third quarter and i don't know what the guidance will be, but we want to watch those numbers closely because it may be a confirmation in some way of just the overall slowdown that many have been anticipating >> october was in front of you coming back, october was an incredibly weak month in this country. and i don't know whether it continues because we're going to the holiday season, but i don't know whether jay powell is looking at one month and saying, one month doesn't make it. but the layoffs are -- mark zuckerberg, when you hear that, i mean, these aren't real layoffs. these are actual, like, closing of giant buildings that had lots of people and are not needed anymore, and there are three positive notes on meta today even, oh my god, a thought just came to me, david.

even bob paycheck may be able to keep his job at disney oh, i'm sorry, chapek. i made that mistake. >> wow, seven minutes in, and you just got to go there >> incredible. >> you know why i went there because i'm tired. i'm tired of people screwing up in this world and yet in the nfl, fired the nfl -- you think dave keper, who was my boss at goldman, do you think dave tepper would tolerate the losses that ch robinson -- chapek is coming up with the panthers coach was fired i want tepper rules here i wonder if sam -- the bankman called tepper for money. let's get that >> yeah, there's a ton of news on ftx obviously, watching the firm itself, reports of this memo from sam bankman-fried, gensler

on "squawk," we're going to talk to sailor. david, i'm sure you're all over it >> i'm trying to be. it's difficult to get a lot of information that you truly believe, and i think what it really points back to is the idea that there was a lot of information that the investors did not know >> yes >> the relationship between alameda, the hedge fund/research firm, whatever you want to call it, and ftx itself was clearly not fully understood there are real questions there about whether, in fact, that relationship may have violated a lot of -- >> you're not using the word comingling >> i'm not going to use the word fraud. but it is being used liberally by others. and whether or not it is, or whether or not it could be proven, it certainly would seem to argue against anybody coming in here with a large capital

infusion, with that prospect now, this is a bahama-based company. it's not clear exactly what that will mean. but that relationship is key here what we've subsequently learned about it in terms of how it was supporting the coin that was issued by ftx and many things that perhaps were unknown, to even the investors who put money in such as sequoia, which has written down its entire investment >> what was it valued at its high >> 30-plus billion >> so they give you this thing, at our cost basis. will you give me a break what did you carry at the last quarter? that's what i want you can't do this. >> the question now becomes, what does ftx do he has an enormous capital hold. can he in some way fill it or is this company on the brink of simply being a liquidation? >> carl, that's why i'm saying, you're getting a clearing event in crypto, but at the same time because of the cpi, these are

pumped up well above you get an opportunity i remember when gensler d i was -- i was in one of these that got bought by sam the bankman. >> there he is and that's walking through basically nassau in the bahamas where they have the offices. mr. bankman-fried has also bought up a series of condos in the very high-end albany club to house many of the people that he moved when he moved the firm from hong kong sometime back by the way, those are assets that the authorities may not be able to get to he spent an enormous amount of money, from what i am told, buying as many as 14 separate condos in the albany club. >> are you kidding me? >> i'm not kidding me. >> how much do those go for? >> my understanding is it was $180 million that he paid for it in cash. >> that's actual -- >> sometime back >> i bought a farm with the money he made for me >> he moved in september of '12, the firm, and i think he bought them prior to that is my

understanding. and so, you know, robert frank, we can talk about the loss of assets and what he's really worth, but he may still have those condos >> it's not clear you're going to have authority to get them. meanwhile, what about the regulators >> if you want to make money on sam bankman-fried, ralph lauren had a good quarter that look is no longer in fashion. what are you saying, the regulators >> what'd you think of gensler on "squawk" this morning >> first of all, he's back at the fireplace. let's not be facetious at all. i think half the people i talked to said he gave you nothing new, and other people just said, when andrew was really pressing him on what these things are worth, he said, listen, it's basically caveat emptor, you're on your own. he's often said that it's high risk, but i think he gave you a call which basically said, look, this is nothing to do with anything involving a security, which made me feel alchemy

i remember bitcoin when pomp -- call me pomp, like, sure pomp said, listen, i dare you to put money in bitcoin i put money just because it's there. it's still well above $12,000, bitcoin. maybe that's an opportunity. >> yeah. let's listen to chairman gensler, who, as jim pointed out and we've kind of made fun of it, but there's also a serious side to it he's still in front of that darn fireplace. he's still at home >> so is mark zuckerberg a lot >> take a listen >> when you mix together a bunch of customer money, nondisclosure, and leverage, borrowing against it, and inside these companies trading, investors get hurt >> and guys, you know, what he's talking about, again, is this relationship between alameda and ftx as we understand it at

least. you know, ftx essentially being able to effectively -- i'm reading here because i took some notes -- effectively add leverage by issuing tokens to alameda sp then alameda could borrow against those same tokens and redeploy the cash back to ftx's platform that's not -- >> you're not allowed to comingle it's against the law >> yeah. that's not good. >> that's against the law. now, where is he really located? what jurisdiction is this man really in? >> he's in the bahamas >> or are they in virtual jurisdictions? where there's really nothing >> there's been a lot of reporting even a year ago about the degree to which he went around the world shopping for areas where he would get a lighter touch. >> the two-year treasury, 4.3% versus the national bank of friedman >> listen -- >> i ask you >> i'm told by people at the albany club that he's very kind and respectful he's a very nice man >> oh, he's nice

>> he's not a -- >> he's nice i take it all back >> he's got that and by the way, they have been welcomed in the bahamas because they've brought a lot of jobs. it's not just a ftx. nassau has become -- i talked to kate rooney about it as well, nassau has become a hub for crypto >> and insurance it's everything. hub for, you know, wow it's interesting the marines were born today. i always think the shores of tripoli. >> how about this tweet from sbf? number one, i'm sorry. that's the biggest thing words we can't use here. but messed up and should have done better. i also should have been communicating more recently, transparency, my hands were tied during the duration of the possible binance deal. i wasn't particularly allowed to say much publicly. some of this is what has been reported by some firms looking at internal staff memos at ftx >> well, a lot of people are taking this advantage to buy

this oh my. he's using all caps. david, he's using all caps i was not very careful with my words. i'm not a good dev i've never said he was a good dev, and probably misdescribed something. all right, all right, can we just back up david, we were talking about jpmorgan >> well, we were talking about it, but we were also being, in a way, pointing to the absurdity of it all. >> being facetious >> there was so little we fully understood >> this is what he has to say on a twitter feed >> very bright guy child of professors. >> uh-oh, glass houses >> brought in a lot of incredibly well-heeled money where you would expect some level of diligence listen, you know, it's a frustrating area i have a lot more questions than answers. i think a lot of people do >> it's a 22-point description

>> yeah. >> that he is giving us, and it's going to take us a long time to go through >> he ends by saying, one way or another, alameda research is windh winding down trading >> one way or another is interesting. >> they're winding down a lot of things over there. the question becomes, is there going to be fraud? how does its get prosecuted? i mean, there's going to be a lot more to this story >> can you use the word s -- >> that's the impact overall on crypto, i think that's -- i'll leave that to others >> i got to go back, carl, we have individuals who are in these things >> yep >> right now and you're getting a huge up move because of the cpi and that's your chance you're being given a gift. >> an off-ramp >> yes i mean, i'm reading this the ftx thing. this guy's going on and on look, it's your chance i mean, david, look, i'm not saying you should go sell crowd

strike up ten. i had udi from cyber ark, i mean, some of these are very good i'm saying that what we have on your screen right now, crypto, and what this man is saying where he says he's sorry but glass houses, i think look at this opportunity now, maybe it goes tomorrow because you got a lot of guys -- there are a lot of guys who need these higher but for the average person, please sell something or get off margin >> now you're pointing to what -- at least the jpmorgan team talked about yesterday. the cascade of margin calls. >> great piece >> production cost has historically been a floor. 15,000 but they're talking 13,000 evercore last night talking at 8 and change, it would be the kind of event that ed argues accompanies a tightening cycle >> every one of these people i trust. these are our bertstters, so to

speak, and you shouldn't be getting this in stocks, it's different. stocks are, you know, there's a lot of stocks, i think, as you said, david, are too cheap >> have you read through all of sam bankman-fried's tweets when he is saying, you've won, well played, you won is he talking about cz >> i see, carl point number one can't be read >> right >> yeah. >> there's a -- a lot of profanity. >> point number five can't be read point number six, george carlin describes. >> we're going to go through all of this long sort of tweet thread from sam bankman-fried, see if there's anything -- >> are we out of our minds here at this very moment? >> i think many people believe you are, certainly >> oh, i'm out of my mind? i believe the meta layoffs >> you think there are more coming is what you told us >> well, there better be >> listen, you predicted it.

i will say that. >> i said i predicted it on wednesday and what day did it happen >> you were talking about it even before that >> i'm just saying, look, there are places where they're getting this severity of this downturn and there are other people who are still saying, you know what? things are good. this cpi number says this could be the beginning, but that's a chance to sell crypto, not necessarily to sell high-quality stocks that have done well >> we're going to obviously cover this a lot more this morning with microstrategy's michael saylor, talking all things crypto in the next hour in the meantime, a lot of moving parts this mn.or ten-year still below 4%. we're back moment.

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welcome back continued communications that sort of give us some sense as to what sam bankman-fried, the man at the center, of course, of the potential collapse of his company, ftx, is thinking right now, and a long series of tweets, and that seems to be the way so many of these things are communicated, including that very short-lived letter of intent from binance to buy the company that's, what, 48 hours ago. of course, it fell apart yesterday because, well, it wasn't anything, really, other than a tweet to begin with here's the latest thread from mr. bankman-fried starting with, i'm sorry. we're not showing you other things he does use a lot of -- there you go you get the picture. going on to say he should have been communicating more --

should have been communicating more very recently and saying transparently his hands were tied during the duration of the possible binance deal. of course, as we said, that wasn't a long period of time, but he said he couldn't say much publicly updates. it's all about ftx international, the non-u.s. exchange users are fine. goes on to say as well that ftx international currently is a total market value of assets versus collateral that's higher than client deposits, although, guys, my understanding is some people have not been able to get their money out. >> no, they haven't been >> liquidity for deliveries, you can tell from the state of withdrawals. the liquidity varies widely from very to very little. and then, again, talking about how he screwed up a number of times here carl, we can go through a lot of them it sort of ends with, one way or another, alameda research -- and that was -- that's this key relationship that has been

brought to light to some extent but that we really don't know a great deal about alameda controlled by mr. bankman-fried, may have been buying assets to prop up ftx for a period of time >> did you say buying assets or moving assets? >> moving them they aren't doing any of the weird things that i see on twitter, he says about alameda research, and nothing large at all and one way or another soon, they won't be trading on ftx anymore. >> why is this man not communicating with his counsel instead of communicating on twitter? these can and will be used against him by a federal prosecutor that's my prediction >> meantime, he says, in any scenario in which they continue to operate, radical transparency will be the tool, and adds, i will not be around if i'm not wanted in terms of his own future >> well, that's, again, not up to him at a certain point. if he did comingle, obviously.

>> i hope he's talking to some lawyers. >> david, obviously, i mean, there's a bit of a george bailey thing. i mean, in terms of people wanting their money. >> yes >> but i don't want to encourage people to want their money all at once. >> that's what started, right? people want their money. they don't have enough they're leveraged to some extent, although you saw him put the leverage numbers out there, and he can't give people their money back >> it took 48 hours for me to get my money back, and this was when things were in the heyday i chose not to use my name, but it was hard to get your money out, even when things were good. so i don't know what it's going to be like when things aren't good >> what do you think about the argument that anything decentral, in other words, where there's not a sovereign, is going to be vulnerable to individual malpractice, greed? >> one of the biggest holders of crypto is the u.s. government. they had to see so much of it.

and that just -- that doesn't encourage me look, when zimbabwe had inflation at a rate that was the highest ever, even higher, i could see why you would want to be in one of these when you're in a currency that is basically being debased every day, this is a great alternative. but if you're in a currency that's not, i mean, look, if i were in the turkish lira -- >> so you think i had made sense for the el salvadorans >> yeah. although costa rica was hacked, according to cyberark. but i think that, again, it's the currency -- depends on your currency i think our currency's stable. you go to jpmorgan, david, take the money out, buy things. but i think that, yes, if you're in a foreign country, which country is unstable? these are preferable >> sbf goes on to say, by the

way, that what matters right now is trying to do right by customers. that's it. jim, to what -- you know, we've seen a number of these situations, different but similar, where there's a huge gaping hole in capital who's going to potentially come in here and fill that hole could you imagine anyone would want to do that? >> robin hood got filled when robin hood was in trouble. >> he bought a bunch of shares too, sam bankman-fried >> that's why people say it's vulnerable >> that's true robin hood did get -- that was separate but you're talking about during that period. >> robin hood did. they went out, sent a book out, and there were people who did it and they wanted to -- and a lot of people were people, carl, who wanted to preserve it. so it's entirely possible the book is out. i'm told last night the book went out it is not going well but there will be people who love to throw good money after bad, if only just to be able to show in their books that the -- what they keep -- what they have is a price of their books is

real so, never underestimate the need to be able to prop things up >> understood. but you really want to throw fresh capital into this kind of situation where there's at least the prospect of fraud? >> i think there are always people who need to prop things up so that it doesn't show that they were fools. i think this one goes. i think it goes because of what you're talking about did he rob peter to pay paul even though -- i mean, he can tell me. also, let's just go over it once again. these are criminal legal matters, potentially, and you do not make your pleading without -- i mean, like, paul weiss, they were using, like, say, bruce and my friend, i don't think bruce would be saying, this is the time to go on twitter and tell everybody. >> and do a 20-tweet thread on everything yeah, no this is not helpful. most likely for any case that would be brought against him but who knows?

>> futures at a high possible to pause when the rate hits around 4 or 5, which is lower than we were thinking. >> again, this is a -- there are a lot of companies whose stocks were in free fall, and there were stocks that were suddenly reversing andgoing up. so let's be careful, because i would argue -- people who want to go buy anything are going to end up, at the end of the day, with some things that are what people have been trying to get out of for a long time semiconductors, where the numbers are quite bad. a freight company you mentioned where the numbers are quite bad. you don't want to be in things that are levered to the decline in the economy it's not going to reverse. it's going to continue >> take a look at the big board, general mark milley, chairman of the joint chiefs our morgan brennan is going to be speaking with him and at the nasdaq today, washington federal and commercial bank. by the way, it's also the 247th

birthday of the marine corps >> this is an organization that is the best we have. >> yes >> and i hope people remember who are cynical about our country that there is an organization called the marines. very hard to get into, because so many people want to show their patriotism and strength. how about that fabulous >> the army's having trouble meeting its quota, in part because they just can't find enough qualified candidates. >> i think the marines do not because it's such a hallowed organization >> yeah. >> i'm not here to talk about the nasdaq up 5% it's vulnerable. a lot of the companies that are up 5% are people -- they're just itching to get out of these things and i don't think that this is going to turn around the fundamentals of some of the companies that were not doing well >> right you got two names on the s&p that are red i think. overwhelmingly positive breadth. we're near 3,900, which has been suggested by many as a potential

ceiling. you think we're bumping up against it >> you got to go over the parts of the cpi you got to go over the components, and you know, some of the components are really, you know, is energy services really bad the one that i couldn't figure out, how did medical care services go down that's -- was that the citi meds of the world so maybe that's serious. used cars, the manheim index continues to go down, but used cars, not. this is not a definitive group of things that are going down. >> the nasdaq's up almost 5%, guys this is an enormous rally right now. can we sustain it? >> i'm saying it's an opportunity. >> can it be sustained amazon is up 8%. microsoft, up 5% >> my travel trust is in amazon and i'm very specifically not selling it because i don't think it's doing nearly as badly as people think but yesterday, we had dr horton, largest home builder, up

it was up 3 pe that was up 3% >> nvidia is up 7.5% >> nvidia reports next week. it was down big yesterday because people felt that they used it for crypto mining, which they don't, because ethereum doesn't work on it anymore but they do have -- and they got approval from the chinese, from us, to be able to sell dumbed-down chips to the chinese. but these stocks are suspect and i like them, but they're suspect. >> you do? but right now. whether it's the algorithms or whatever it might be based on cpi and what that points to, there are people who are saying, this is the beginning of the new -- of the -- >> oh, yeah. all the historical charts, if you plot the s&p against peak cpi, i mean, the right side of that line tends to be pretty good >> all i'm saying is that there's some companies that aren't doing well and this is a great opportunity and there are companies like the banks that are doing so well, i think people realize, now they're actually winning on price on what they've been investing in it's just the time to buy after

that okay quarter? no but is it the time to buy jpmorgan yes. i'm going to goldman-sachs later today, and goldman-sachs sells the cheapest it ever has to book i don't want to sell goldman up ten. >> it sounds like you think earnings are at risk for next year we might have -- we might have taken care of inflation but the slowdown -- >> earnings are very at risk and they're worrisome because i think a lot of companies that people are in, they start doing poorly because they can't get through the price increases, and there are others -- johnson & johnson, large investment for my travel trust, all their costs are going down they're splitting off the consumer business. that is the kind of stock i like the dividend suddenly in play. it's positive. remember, dividends were -- they were passe for a little while here do we have any stuff about meta? is that later today? >> not that i can think of i was going to mention -- >> i happy to think that meta,

if he can -- if mark zuckerberg can do what he's saying in terms of cutting costs, there's a piece by michael nathanson that made a brief for meta that was extraordinary and i think he's a rigorous analyst >> well, sort of relate, to your point about people looking to get out of things, crm's the worst down name over the course of a year. >> i went over crm today with -- it's been a position since 2008. this marc benioff. and i don't think he can necessarily make the number, because the dollar, but if the dollar is weaker, that's the home run if the dollar really has peaked, as i just called my wife in paris, during the commercial break, of course, if the dollar has peaked, david, i'm over here, i'm not over there if the dollar has peaked, then you're going to want to buy salesforce, because the dollar crushed them microsoft, up 11

the dollar crushed them. >> has the dollar peaked i mean, i don't know i'm asking you >> speak to sara eisen later she follows it all better than anybody. >> she does. sara loves her currency. >> we have strengths we're certainly stronger than a lot of the news organizations that are called news organizations. i'm telling you the dollar is key to tech. because otherwise, i'm going to hold on to salesforce, and people are going to say, you did that out of loyalty, and out of some sort of false, you know, emotion. but if the dollar's peaked, then marc benioff makes the -- will make the next quarter. >> dxy was 114 last month. 108 today. >> that says that you don't sell benioff. don't sell salesforce. >> it's interesting. it's not helping names like mcdonald's this morning. >> that is interest, because i thought mcdonald's had a very good quarter and that's probably a good opportunity. >> procter & gamble, which has been in my travel trust, just a so-so stock, they're a big

winner they tell their story so poorly, it doesn't matter. >> one name i just followed because it was a spac deal, remember a leading value-based primary care provider and population health company. that's right remember, there was also cno, ano, there was some talk about it being a takeover. take a look at the stock >> talk about it >> there was real reporting on it not from me. not from me. it's down 27%. numbers were not good. not p&g. i'm talking about cano health. there it is. ebitda came in below the street estimate reported revenue, $665 million management citing lower than expected revenue per member. lower risk for its new members is the reason for the lower revenue despite medical costs coming in better than expect thanks, guys that gives you a sense of what i was talking about there. remember when it was moving up

you can see that little peak there. >> people -- it does have a legitimate -- i mean, the business model's quite good there. >> no, it is i'm not kidding. i looked into it >> you did >> yes >> is it better today than it was yesterday? >> well -- >> is it -- or is it 31.2% worse? >> you know what let the jury decide. i mean, let the investors decide i do think that it was a good -- it had a great concept and that's what the walgreens are buying >> that's what they're buying. there's a lot of interest in these primary care providers that, again, are what they call population health companies, dealing with broader -- >> the winner here are banks because it's happening fast enough that the savings will not be completely exhausted so they won't have credit problems i would buy american express off this that would be my number one name >> automakers. >> that's a tough one because you take -- new cars have not gone down but does ford have the inventory? i saw someone downgrade gm

>> wolf downgraded gm. >> fatuous >> wedbush took tesla off. >> he's a longstanding buyer of tesla. that was an extraordinary call >> rivian had a decent quarter you mentioned some of these retailers. walmart's had a good quarter but someone put out a tactical short today on target. i thought that might be ill advised. but what's really going up are these customer relations, the software as a service guys, and some of them, like workday, are not suspect. and some of them are deeply suspect. no need to go into it here, but the dow is up big, and i think that what i would be selling is anything related to crypto, and what i would be buying from that money, just put that in the two-year until you get a better opportunity. the two-year, you get your money

back this may be your opportunity david, if there really is a so-called run at the bank, there will be people who are brain dead who don't know that >> we're back to crypto now, right? >> i'm just saying, what you should sell first is you get off of margin crypto, okay go buy the two-year. then the next is you look at the tech companies that actually are not having good quarters that we know, including some of the semis. and then you take a hard look at buying some of the, by that point, some of the jpmorgans which are still down goldman-sachs, down. that's my plan i like the retailers because they were down very badly yesterday. >> i was going to say, dillard's today. >> i like tjx, it was upgraded today. >> again, all these companies yet to report earnings but will in the next couple of weeks. >> that's true i think tjx will be good >> we'll see if we get any commentary about a potentially weakening consumer >> the ones that are really in

question, my travel trust sells microsoft. i was going over wit with jeff marks, and i said, do we want to own the 25 times earnings stocks i'm not sure microsoft, another stock we've owned since the trust began. and you know, it's just been so painful. you go home. and you're not thinking, even, about the eagles you're thinking about microsoft. it's like, look at that chart. oh my god. is this going to be the quarter, david, that these guys are not going to have good orders? because of the slowdown in the economy? it's immense and happening much faster than certainly jay powell realized. the slowdown is real >> it may be real but you have to wonder whether people aren't going to just simply buy on that because the slowdown is evidence of it working and therefore we know what happens as a result of that and then we're off to the races again. everybody's a little bit ahead hasn't the decline in microsoft in part reflected the expectations of said slowdown?

>> do you start buying when you're laying off people >> i don't know. >> but they obviously have money to spend on travel why would you not have money to spend on stocks? >> i think the consumer is better than the silicon valley companies, where i think the real -- that's where the real risk is. and some of these, like, i happen to like alphabet but they have so many more people than they need, and they're spending so much more than they need. you know, by the way, the spend on cap -- the capex spend at meta is so out of hand, you know, some of these companies -- >> so, the point, meta announces significant layoffs and of course the stock's up 10%. >> that's because they doubled number of people they had. >> it's going to be a hundred -- up to a hundred billion dollars in 2023 opex now >> that's incredible >> and the pay package, david. you really should -- you should go -- you should be like gaugin with that pay package.

>> you mean for leaving? >> for leaving, what you get >> you get 16 weeks and then two weeks for every year >> if you leaving is so much better than staying, it's incredible, not that you can stay, but you're talking about five, six months really making a lot of money, and mark zuckerberg, got to hand it to him, he was able to dish out that shareholders' money just all over the place >> speaking of zuckerberg, he did address meta employees virtually yesterday, just hours after the company announced the laying off of 13% of its staff a meta employee impacted by the layoffs provided this video to nbc news >> i'm the founder and ceo i'm responsible for the health of our company, for our direction, and for deciding how we execute that, including things like this and this was ultimately my call. and it was, you know, one of the hardest calls that i have had to make in the 18 years of running the company. >> and that includes some tough

episodes >> i think what he's doing is right. i think it was needed. but as david would say, there's still no cut on the spend for the lab work >> no. >> and if you've tried -- >> he's a believer completely but this is the future of his company. he doesn't seem willing to cut that >> let's say -- bank of america, by the way, that's a buy, up 37. you take a look at what they want to do they want to do a mall a virtual mall well, my wife wants a virtual store in the mall for her virtual mezcal, which is actual mezcal and like so many things in life, including twitter, you want to give people money to be able to say, listen, i'd like to be able to advertise, but they don't have any ability it takes so much money, so much capex, david, to get that virtual mall made that you could see why there's just so much money that has to be spent, because it's just so difficult to make money on the web because of the amount of capex

the capex is immense >> it's immense. lot of software engineers spending a lot of man hours. >> lot of servers bought >> creating this world lot of servers >> is it not better to go find a target which people are saying have a bad quarter, yet brian cornell has cleared the deck classic growth classic growth did not stumble is a buy here. and i'm going to reiterate that i'm still dazzled by the fact that this sam bankman-fried is making the case on twitter this is real people's money. this is not monopoly money this is, do not pass go. oh, well, you can finish that. >> as we go to break, we got the dow and the s&p once again positive for the month after those first tough few days of

november take a look at bonds as well two-year, 4.3%, ten-year below 3.9% now and we're going to get more revaluations on cpi later today with logan and george and williams tonight as the fed speak continues. dow holding on to a gain of just shy of 800 points. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect. ah, these bills are crazy. she has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or

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let's get to jim >> okay, what do you buy okay, here's a company that's having an unbelievable quarter that's doing amazingly well in a secular growth tend, palo alto networks i spoke with cyberark yesterday. they confirmed that palo alto is doing great. this is what with you buy. it's a high multiple company that is profitable that has great growth, and the growth is, frankly, got great visibility. so, go buy that, up 8. that does not bother me one bit to buy that, that much not one bit. i'll go for that >> how about a look at what's

coming up tonight? >> we got goldman-sachs. david solomon, spending a lot of time over there today. i think that we can really get some good insight. then, a salute to veterans, the man, clouse, who runs campbell's, he's having an amazing quarter and then the navy, we have the secretary of the navy, and i want to know about, navy i want to know, how safe are we in the straits taiwan i want to know if the 7th fleet can protect that country i think that man can tell us i'm very excited about this show today. i'm still shattered by -- >> there's that, there's the fed, there's inflation we didn't mention ukraine, by the way, but the dwindling options for putin, who is now not going to go to g20 we talked about kherson yesterday. >> they have a caisson moment going on over there with -- caisson -- >> right but there's an expectation things will slow in terms of the

ukrainian army to continue its advances because of the rain in the late fall and then, obviously, the onset of winter >> but what i think really does -- this is a moment where i think that jake sullivan is trying to figure out, i don't want this to be a munich moment where they decide what to do with chez lowzechoslovakia but united states are trying to decide whether to, as some say, sell out ukraine munich in september of 1938, the great powers chose to sell out a great democracy. and i hope they don't repeat it. >> meanwhile, we have the nasdaq up over 5% very few mornings i can recall - >> well, the cpi is -- >> -- where we've seen a number like that. only 21 minutes into trading we'll see. >> we just went over the semis we're not going to sell any of them because they're too low they've been crushed every day and a lot of the preannouncement, the worst is over, but i do think people who

want to sell things that involve crypto are getting great opportunity. >> wow what an hour, jim. walked in here with a lot of ammo got more as we went along. we'll see you tonight, "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time. defense is in focus, geopolitics, ukraine, china continue to make an impact morgan brennan joins us. >> general mark milley, top miller te military adviser to the president. you just rang the opening bell as we get ready to celebrate veterans day let's start there. >> thanks for having me. it was important, i think, to get up here on veterans day. a quarter of a million veterans in new york city i spent two years of my life and i'm proud of this city so i wanted to get up here and share

this day, veterans day and i think we as a nation are grateful we as a nation are thankful for what the veterans have done. it's a great day to celebrate. >> absolutely. let's get to the current geopolitical environment yesterday ordering a retreat from kherson we've seen putin and sop diplomats walk back nuclear weapons in recent days your assessment of what is currently going on on the ground right now, and i ask that on a day where we did just get an inflation reading. we know the conflict there has impacted economic data here. could we potentially be seeing the prospect of an end to this conflict in sight? >> it's too early to tell with any degree of certainty. obviously, armed conflict wars are a destabilizing factor and have significant destabilizing effect on global economies

any time there's a war anywhere. and in ukraine, there's a significant war. a lot of suffering going on, a lot of casualties on both sides, a lot of damage to the economy, a lot of refugees. this war's been going on for quite a while. we're in our eighth month, ninth month. it's a war that didn't need to happen it's a geopolitical mistake on the part of russia they attacked a country that was no threat to russia. and yet their military is being beaten on the battlefield. you are seeing the withdrawal of russian forces out of kherson. we're seeing the beginnings of that it was announced yesterday by defense minister what the future holds is not known with any degree of certainty. but we think there are some possibilities here for some diplomatic solutions so, we'll see where that leads us. >> certainly the state department has been running lead on those talks. >> sure, absolutely. >> what does ukraine need to defend itself? perhaps just as importantly as

we have sent weapons systems there, why aren't we seeing more put on contract in terms of replenishment here >> on the first part, ukraine has the morale, the will, the leadership from zelenskyy down to the privates and captains and sergeants. they have the intangible element of combat power, which is, perhaps, the most important, and that is will the will to fight. what they need are the means as well they need the ammunition, the weapons, the guns, the artillery, the himars, and that's being provided to them by the united states and many other countries as well. we've been doing that consistently we've given billions of dollars for equipment. they've been using it effectively against the russians and we'll continue to do that. ukraine is fighting for their survival it's a fight for their survival and also parnt for us, for the united states, for europe. it's all about rules-based order which was put in place at the end of world war ii to prevent

great power wars those rules have held firm now for going on eight decades if those rules, which are being undermined by this war, if those rules go away, if they're destroyed, then they'll be incredible amount of pressure for increased instability, increased wars around the world. our interest is to make sure those rules stay in place, that they're enforced, and we are doing that by helping out ukraine and making sure the end of the day, ukraine remains a free, sovereign, independent country they've been since 1991. >> it's such a crucial point you're making. and certainly when we talk about russia as it's been laid out within the recently released national defense strategy, it is the, quote, unquote, acute threat you look to the key strategic competitor for the u.s., it is -- the so-called pacing threat is china. given the conversation we're having right here about ukraine and russia, how is that translating to the discussion

around china, especially as admiral gilday of the navy said that timeline has increased dramatically, especially china's invasion of taiwan. >> the future is unknown you can't make predictions of when something will happen or not happen we call china the pacing threat. china has enriched itself under those rules that were established at the end of world war ii when peng put in his reforms in 1979, they've had a 10% rise overrun in their economic growth for going on 40 years and slowed down to 7% and slowed down again to 3%. with that wealth came a military their military is growing in all the domains, space, cyber, traditional domains of land, sea and air. they're growing in capability. we the united states have the strongest, most capable military in the world our adversaries know that. the american people should know that it's incumbent upon us to stay number one

if we stay number one, as a military, which we are right now. if we stay strong, we stay capable and demonstrate a will to use that capability if necessary, that will be deterrence will take effect and you won't have the war that you want to prevent. so, it's important that we remain strong and remain number one. and we're in a very fundamental change in the character of war china recognizes that. the united states recognizes it. russia recognizes that what i mean is the way you fight the doctrine, weapons, equipment, technology. a lot of weapons are coming out quickly, robotics, artificial intelligence, and precision weapons, which have been around for 30, 40 years we're in the ilgdz middle of one of the most fundamental changes of war in the history of mankind. that country that adapts the fastest, innovates the most, that country will have a decisive advantage at the beginning of a war, which i suspect will happen at some point in time, some time in the

deep future. if we remain strong, if we remain number one, that war won't happen it's incumbent upon us and the generosity of the people and those in congress to fund our military to maintain number one. china is the long-term challenge. we want to keep competition. we don't want competition to move into conflict. >> what do you think of the disentangling in terms of technological supply chain, semiconductor chips, for example, between china and u.s. and the trade wars evolving. the u.s. is in the midst of multi-year, multi-billion dollar modernization process? can the u.s. move quickly enough to continue to counter and deter china? >> the short answer is yes we absolutely can. we have the capability, we have the right talent, the right leadership, the right vision we're working on the joint war concept right now, which we're going to publish in december that will turn into doctrine

we'll have the vision, if you will, of the road map to the future that will be laid out. we have the support, bipartisan support on the hill. we have the right leadership in the department of defense. we have the right industrial base so, the short answer is yes. all of those piece parts can come together where we can remain number one. it's important to know that all countries have access to these technologies these aren't unique to the united states. and the country that accent rates and adapts these technologies to certain ways of war and how to fight and to do that better than your opponent -- you're not going to get it exactly right you just have to get it less wrong than your enemy. we're going to do that we're capable of doing that. we're america. we're the most innovative, most capable country on earth that's ever existed and we'll continue to stay that way. >> all right so much more i could ask, but we're up against the end of the hour general milley, we sure appreciate your time it's an honor and privilege to speak with you today

of course, as we do commemorate the men and women in uniform who have fought to ensure our rights and freedoms in this country that i know i sometimes take for granted, but certainly experience with a lot of gratitude on a day like today. >> all of us in uniform are appreciative of the american people we swore an oath to give our life if necessary to defend the constitution and we're serious about it we're never going to turn our back on it thanks very much for the opportunity to be here. >> thank you guys general mark milley, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. back over to you at post 9. >> such a remarkable interview, morgan about a half hour into trading this morning we got s&p back to 3900 today on the heels of that cool cpi print and some dovish fed speak from ha ha harker and evanses it is the best day for the s&p and nasdaq in over 2 1/2 years our bob pisani has more on the markets. >> good morning, carl. you see how that s&p is notably outperforming the dow. that's because tech stocks are

more heavily weighted in the s&p 500 in general growth stocks are. that's what's moving things today. they want growth again here today. you can see that, that's not a misprint cathie wood's ark innovation up 11.6%, semiconductors -- these are the two sectors risk-on/risk-off industrials still not performing the overall market up but underperforming and energy, consumer staples, health care, underperforming today but up the idea is they want growth look at stocks associated -- i call them -- associated with cathie wood and the ark fund you see big moves up in unity software, block, zscaler, roku they were at 52-week lows and having a move to the upside today. it's not speculative tech or smaller tech you want. larger cap tech has been moving strongly today a lot of software names like service now, autodesk, paycom

have been very strong, along with semiconductors like advanced micro, nvidia it's not big cap tech. apple is up 6% microsoft is up 5% it's just that other parts of the tech world are outperforming even the big mega cap companies. the other sector that's noticeably moving today are housing stocks today remember, they had a horrible first half of the year as people just sold into them on higher rate expectations that did materialize. look at lennar, horton, and things associated with housing, mohawk ander i ersher win willi. look at some of these major indices and how they've been moving recently. vix at two-month low right now dollar index at a two-month low. two-year yields, which is the key indicator, mover of the market, 9% off the highs, four

points lower for the whole week. that's notable moves and a big part of the risk-on thing. some bulls are trying to use the phrase, maybe we'll get a soft landing. they're bringing back that phrase right now what's next for the market here is, remember, the question here is what does this mean for earnings here? the bulls are trying to argue right now that maybe if this trend continues, we'll see stability in 2023 earnings estimates. people are anticipating the numbers would come down dramatically maybe not. maybe the earnings apocalypse will not happen. if you just have them stable, you could get an expansion of the multiple now it's about 16 times forward earnings if the economy is not going to crash, ublgd argue for higher multiple, 17, 18 you see the estimates right now, they didn't go into negative territory. still up fractionally for the fourth quarter technology and communication services, carl, are moving to the downside their estimates are down overall, we're still holding up and 2023 numbers still up 5.2%

the bulls are arguing right now, stability there with a slight uptick in the multiple could mean that we can get -- finally break through that 3900 level, which is right where we're at and where we've had a lot of trouble before back to you. >> bob pisani. i was at the desk with david and jim and we were doing our thing and right away, sam fried tweeted about the overall pressure in crypto basically a giant mea culpa, i'm sorry, i messed up that's the biggest thing i should have done better. goes on to say, we are where we are. that's on me i'm sorry. says his number one priority is doing right by users and i'm going to do everything i can to take responsibility and do what i can. can't make any promises but i'm going to try goes on to say that every penny of the existing collateral will go straight to users unless or

until we've done right by them but all of that isn't what matters right now. what matters right now is trying to do right by customers and that's it. david, we talked about sort of the legal ramifications of accepting so much fault so early on at the end of this process. >> yeah. it's extraordinary in so many different ways, including the way he is choosing to communicate. unclear what legal advice he's getting. i mention that because there is the potential of fraud that relationship between alameter research controlled by mr. bankman-fried and ftx. again, we don't know we're speculating based on, frankly, others reporting and things i've heard from people who atangentially aware of them that alameda was buying the coin issued by ftx on leverage and taking that cash and putting it back on the ftx platform that's not -- that's not good. that's not allowed that's something that should be disclosed. it shouldn't take place at all

unclear exactly, again, the relationship between those two parties and the entities leverage has such an important role overall it always does, in every single collapse or potential collapse and i would direct people to, let's see, number five here, in terms of his tweet storm the first time a pore internal labeling of bank-related accounts meant that i was substantially off on my sense of users' margin. i thought it was way lower so, he also didn't understand how much leverage his own customers had. and what that meant for the platform he goes on to say, right now our liquidity needs, our leverage is 1.7 times our liquidity. it was 0.8 of sunday's withdrawals. $5 billion was withdrawn on sunday that was the largest, says bankman-fried by a huge margin going on to say, so i was off twice, which tells me a lot of

things basically wasn't very good at what he was doing. and then also he says, i didn't communicate enough so, carl, this does seem to be an effort to at least try to communicate more, but the real question is, what's the future of this company? it would appear to be on the brink of collapse, given it's got a huge potential capital hole and very much unclear who's going to fill it doesn't mean you can't potentially find some money out there, but with the prospect of at least investigations, regulatory actions -- although it's a bahamian company, nonetheless, the future's certainly not looking particularly bright. >> certainly opened the door for two new elements, regulators, gary gensler on "squawk" talking about companies in the crypto space having a shorter runway, shorter leash. and mike trying to define the underlying use cases of the

technology i think he said ftx is no more crypto than webvan was as he called t he said it's a body blow for crypto. >> yeah. that very well may be the case i know there are many evangelists for crypto overall and the importance it's going to have, use of digital currencies, but just to remind people, this was one of the most important trading platforms. kiddingly or not, m mr. bankman-fried was referred to as the jpmorgan of crypto, in part, because he came to the aid of so many other platforms that found themselves in dire need of capital as they, too, perhaps didn't properly estimate margin of their customers, the ability of people to pull money very quickly. carl, you do find yourself in that similar place with ftx, which, again, fair to say, was somewhat unexpected by many who looked at him as solid let's just leave it at that.

again, to be nice, i'm told people who live with him in his community down there at the albany club in bahamas say he's very kind and very nice. let's turn now to our senior economics reporter, steve liesman, another nice guy. he's taking a look -- closer look at the inflation data today. man, what an impact that's having on our stock market, steve. >> absolutely, david this is a massive market reaction to a modest inflation beat a new dallas fed president lori logan giving us the first fed reaction and it's encouraging, but cautious logan saying the cpi data is a welcome relief but still a long way to go. the process of bringing supply and demand back into balance is, i quote, just getting started. logan is head of fed men tear policy so we watch her comments on financial markets she said liquidity situations have been strained but suggest they strain from uncertainty and volatility doesn't sound all that concerned at the moment. she added the fed should avoid

costs that are higher than necessary and be attentive to risks of further policy tightening finally, she said it may -- it may soon be appropriateto slow the pace of rate increases that's along with other fed comments, charlie evans saying he's nervous about risks to the economy of bringing rates too high patrick harker saying we expect we will slow the fed hikes in coming months. cpi 0.2% on the headline, and 0.2 on year over year. hey, it's still 6.3% of the core and 7.7 year-on-year the cpi getting help from lower owner rents. that's how they bring housing into cpi fed officials have said repeatedly they need convincing evidence that inflation is coming down. while the market is all in on

this lower inflation number, the fed is likely to be more cautious they want several months of cooling bl changing course david, guys, it's been a long time since i reported good inflation data i'm not sure i know how to handle it. >> the market knows how to handle it. i mean, wow. up over 4% on the s&p. that move in the nasdaq right now, 5.66% steve, there are a lot of algorithms out there based on that ten-year treasury yield if it pierces 4% to the down side, boom, buying mode. to your point, does this really change the endpoint? do we still get to 5% or more when they're done? >> look, david, the market certainly thinks so. if you look at what happened to peak fed fund rate, we went in over 5, we were at 5.06 this morning. it had come down in repeat days from the highs and now trading at 4.83 for that may contract for the peak fund rate

evercore isi saying this morning that this lower than expected or better than expected inflation number now cementing the idea of the fed coming down at least to a 50-basis point increase for the november -- sorry, for the december meeting there is something a bit on 25 i think that may be pretty aggressive here. david, look, the market wants that -- what do you want to call it, that all-clear signal that things are get better and we're on the way to normalizing rates and a lower funds rate i would just say, we've been here before. i'd be a little cautious on all of this. >> just real quickly on that, then, how many reports -- you know, what does make up for the fed a satisfying group, so to speak, they can really make a decision on? >> david, you've been a reporter as long as i have. we both know three is the trend. if you have two examples of something, you don't have a story. you have three, you have a story. >> yep, yep. >> but as you say, the market's not going to wait for that the market's going to price in

i think what the market feels, we're down at this level, that the upside risk here is worth it relative to the downside risk of continued inflation. so, i think that's really -- it's a risk/reward story for the market here more so than it is a clean or clear bet on inflation coming down. i think we can safely say, things are improving it's just the slowness and the incrementalness of this improvement that i think is a little concerning to the fed >> steve, thanks for that. steve liesman. let's continue the conversation, joining us schwab asset management ceo omar aguilar and david zervos david, let me start with you you were with us a few days ago and described this process as baby steps to the fed's endgame. is this another baby step? >> feels like a bigger step, carl, 5-plus on the nasdaq it's a big miss to the downside. it's a lot of relief

i think it takes away from the aggressiveness we heard in jay's press conference after the last fmoc meeting it's nicely consistent with the statement. the statement was talking about lags, about cumulative tightening, and i think we're going to start to see that play more in fed commentary, maybe more like what charlie evans was talking about earlier. and i think it takes -- takes us much more into this fine-tuning phase. we've done the heavy lifting we got 400 basis points done already. we're going to have, you know, 450 or so bythe end of the year, maybe 475. and we've got a lot of qt to get through. we'll have $500 billion of qt by the end of the year. there's a lot of tightening in the offer. we're starting to see, you know, the benefits that the fed is looking for, at least some signs of them coming through and i think the market's really going to key off that. it obviously has >> yeah, definitely this

morning. omar, it sounds like you are tuned in a little more to longer-term structural stickiness in inflation that could haunt us for years >> yeah, absolutely. you know, first of all, obviously the market was starving for some positive light that this was actually working somehow. i think over the last few months, we have seen the market taking so much on the negative side of all asset classes, fixed income, equities, commodities. i think a report that shows a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel obviously has been incredibly well received by both bonds and equities you know, but long term, you know, the pace and, you know, whole concept of what we're talking about here is really just, you know, the deceleration and the acceleration of, you know, higher rates by the fed and central banks around the world. you know, how fast they can go towards a morerestrictive monetary policy and at the same time, the pace of the

deceleration of this inflation pressure you know, as you stated, you know, the longer term reasons to why we got into this place, you know, is still there that is going to probably just, you know, have a lot of questions probably closer to the terminal rates than what it is whether it is velo, whether it's demographics, whether the overall landscape of how we move towards renewable energy all of those will probably stay with us for longer than what i think officials may actually have in place. >> david, i mean, we're talking about an extraordinary morning here so far. just the amount of market cap. i got amazon up 10% on no news other than this, then apple and alphabet and microsoft again, the biggest of the cap companies out there. you know, adding 6%, 7%. is this the beginning of something new, or is this a fake-out >> so, david, look, i think

ta -- there's not a back up the truck, we're going to new highs that's not the story the story is we have a very nice cushion on the downside. we've got a lot of nominal gdp growth and we're going to push back up and see if we can get to the 4200, 4300 level, which is doable up there, david, i think the fed is going to come at you like they did in jackson hole look, we still have this inflation. we still have this, you know, mark on our report card that we're not very happy about 7% in 2021 8% going down now to 7.7% in 2022 you know, they're going to use opportunities of strength in the market and easing of financial conditions to just get to their goals a little faster. it doesn't mean they're going to tighten more it just means they're not going to come down - >> all right but i'm looking -- all right

i'm 7.7% now on inflation. i'm still looking at s&p earnings being down next year. we can debate how much, but i don't know where a mark of multiple should be i don't know, do i want to use this as a great opportunity to sell today with the nasdaq down 30% for the year >> because i actually think the earnings story is the thing that's been missed by the market this year, david earnings have surprised remarkably to the upside we had an -- think about this. our economy nominally is generating about $25 trillion o gdp. two years ago that was just a little more than $20 trillion. it's a lot easier to create a dollar of earnings, a dollar of profit or have a valuation that's higher when you have 20% growth in nominal gdp in two years. 9% this year even though real growth hasn't been that high real growth this year has been almost negligible. two negative quarters to start

the equity community really missed in the beginning of this year the idea that this is an inflationary slowdown. not a deflationary slowdown. and they kept doing comps to what happens in deflationary slowdowns like we had in late '09 and said, oh, earnings have to collapse. not when there's lots of nominal growth, nominal production i'm not there with everybody necessarily on this big collapse in earnings. i haven't been all year, which is why i was never in the 3,000 to 2700 camp, which a lot of the guys you guys had me on with were sitting in for a big chunk of the beginning >> some of them are still out there. >> omar, not to get too granular, but one thing that stood out in this morning's print was medical care that's the weakest monthly change in several decades. and i'm wondering if you think that's an outlier? was it a rounding issue? or is it a canary in what could

be, i don't know, some argue, a cascading effect in deceleration >> well, you know, one would hope that, you know, the data point will probably represent the beginning of the trend, but one data point, obviously, is not enough to just figure out where the next piece are it is obviously -- whether it's a rounding error or just the actual number that represents the next, you know, point, will obviously represent a relief on what it is the reality that is deflationary, which is great and i think, you know, the hope is that they will actually stay and create a trend that we can all agree upon i think the biggest challenge here is just, you know, the reaction function that we are getting from all these datapoints by fed, by the market participants and by the markets all together, i think, is just, you know, something that we have seen it isn't just today. obviously we're focusing on reaction, but if you see the

volatility in yield is remarkable i don't remember seeing that big of a change just out of one data point, as we have seen so, that only shows the reaction function of the extrapolation of single datapoints tend to be overly stated at the moment. >> david, i realize there's a lot that would need to happen for this outcome to still materialize and materialize sooner rather than later, but if we were to see an end to the conflict in ukraine, and thus, maybe some pressure on things like energy and food prices and some of the other dynamics that have contributed to inflation, what does that that do to the inflation outlook? what does that do to the fed's outlook going into next year what does that do to the equity market >> i think it's great news for the supply disruption story, right? that's been a big driver of -- on this inflation story that we've had accelerate this year of course, the beginning -- we started the year with 7% inflation. the reason we went up to over 9% is because of that war story as

well as the zero covid policies in china the more they have, the more we can kind of get through this period of negative supply shocks, which i think the fed does believe is a big part of the story. it's not really for them as much of a demand shock as some in the market have characterized that the answer to your question is, big deal it's a big deal. >> that's a really good point. it's a great point and one, omar, i'll let you have the last word on, because there's a sense today that as some of these supply shocks get smoothed out, that were related to covid, at the very least it allows the fed to make decisions that aren't going to be based on a head fake that they'll regret later on i wonder in that sense if you think the fed's path, whether they hike as much next month or not, is a little cleaner at least, compared to historical norms. >> absolutely. i think, you know, the biggest part here is like this report today provides the fed with more options. and i think that optionality the fed was looking for, at least

shows that their actions have been on the right track. i think whether or not they do the step down from 75 to 50 or whether or not their terminal rate moves down from 5 to 4.75, that's probably not what they're worrying about now i think what they have in mind is their labor market. i think that is the biggest part of still uncertain of what is going to be, how fast they can continue to get to that terminal rate and what is the expectations they may have and the market may have on that strength of the labor market i think overall, that sort of trade is -- i think they have already discounted that growth will slow down i don't necessarily if they're worried even about market volatility, but they're definitely, you know, looking very closely at what the impact of this report and the changes in their monetary policy and their pace will actually have on the labor market so, it's still, i think, too early to claim there will be a change i think the fed has optionality. for them, you know, having the

ability to continue their role of trying to fight this inflation is critical. remember, numbers are lower, but they're not low. we're talking about still a 7 handle that's something the fed has very clear, that they still need to have some work to do. >> yeah. definitely a long way from 2 omar, david, great discussion on an important day thanks so much in the midst of this broad market rally, transports just the latest sector to show signs of belt tightening ch robinson is one of the biggest frad companies in the country, reportedly laying off 1,000 to 1,200 workers ceo telling employees, quote, we got ahead of ourselves in terms of head count. despite today's rally, the name is still down since reporting results last week. you can see up right now 3.5% with the transports also up 4.5%, 4.6% but, guys, i mean, we've seen it from the likes of fedex where just recently we had some

updates about ongoing belt-tightening and trimming of capacity there so, you are starting to see the question, of course, being, is it economic slowdown or is it normalization post-pandemic? you are starting to see some of these moves made within freight, which is an early indicator on the economy. >> jim was talking about it earlier as being a very good sign, particularly for these rates coming down for what it means for inflation. >> yes, absolutely although this is an interesting one, right, because spot rates have come down pretty dramatically, especially when you talk about certain aspects of trucking but the contract rates have been creeping up because it goes to this fundamental, secular shift where supply chain is concerned and how shippers, the different companies that are moving different goods around the country and around the world, are now moving to basically try to prevent the type of situation we've seen play out in the past couple of years, prevent that from happening again in the future which in some ways, carl, goes

back to, and i think of you in vietnam doing your documentary, the moves out of china, too, in terms of the industrial bases. >> you're right about the spot market the fact we're seeing the spot market come down in a period where you normally see higher retail activity is significant that season is just not materializing the way it has in recent years. >> we're going to have to see, right? it's peak season, but we also know some of that was -- i think about amazon prime day as an example. stocks are surging as we've been talking about following today's cpi print. that was softer than expected. let's bring in senior commentator mark santoli your thoughts as we see the market up 5.5% now. >> the starting point matters quite a bit. considering the nasdaq was down some 3.5% from tuesday's high. you had all the atmospherics around the crypto meltdown dragging that lower. also the broader market was bracing for at least the possibility of another hot

upside surprise on cpi that was clear you had a very, very extreme hedging going on a couple of days ago, one of the most active days of the year for that. i think that kind of released the market once we got a little relief on the cpi to go back into the hardest hit areas that has included tech the broad market has held up i keep going back to this point. has refused to break down over the past several eeks, despite what's going on with the big tech earnings blowups, with the fed hawkishness, because there was this possibility that you've already priced in a lot. you've seen the overall earnings picture not terrible and then you have the seasonal strength, if you could just get a little help on inflation it basically doesn't change the overall trajectory but it takes some of the pressure off big, big moves in bond yields translating into that. >> i was just going to flag the big moves we're seeing in bond yields right now also the fact that the dollar has come off those recent highs,

too, and whether that is much more meaningful and whether it does speak to -- i know you were talking about this in the past hour, a peak in the dollar >> it looks a little like it could be a short-term peak, without a doubt. that was the case coming into today. now it's, i think, further, perhaps, given some credence to that idea. it does come back to what it means for how urgent the federal reserve needs to be from this point on whether we can start to bring the destination for the short-term fed funds rate into view, and the fed talking about how they can step down basically the market has taken that sort of 75-basis point hike in december down to a 50 most likely at this point there's more data to come before we get to that meeting it seems as if we're comfortable now. s&p at 3900. we were at 3900 on fmoc day a week ago yesterday we were just there intraday. you know, we're sort of stretching towards a little more of the upper end of the recent range. it makes sense because you did have a lot of worry built into

this market based on the idea we weren't going to get any help from the data. >> yeah. we made the point in terms of the market as well still down 30% on the nasdaq despite that 5.6% advance today. mike, the algorithms, so many seem to be geared towards a move down in rates, particularly below 4%, perhaps, on the ten-year boom, you buy them i don't know if you have any insight there as to the influence of the machine, so to speak. >> there's no doubt about it you essentially build into an execution process, the correlations that have worked really well this year. that has been one of those things that has worked really well the two-year note coming down, i don't know, i haven't looked at it in the last ten sectonds, bu coming down 23, 24 basis points in a morning is not something that has happened very often in the past when you do have that, it definitely springloads the equity market for a move higher. keep in mind, yesterday we got

an update to the atlanta fed gdp now number showing 4% potential real growth. that's where it's tracking for the current quarter. so, yesterday that was creating anxiety because it seemed like it was kind of topping up the fed's budget to do more attacking of inflation because all of a sudden the economy might be able -- they might have to slow it down more at least for now, inflation is not necessarily seeming like it's more inflamed than 24 hours ago. >> we came into this is week midterm investors, and this last big gasp of earnings, as we've seen, a lot of consumer-facing companies report and, of course, cpi today. what is next on the horizon in terms of a key market-moving metric that comes into focus now? >> what's interesting from here on out, morgan, is i think we're going to see if that post-midterm election dynamic starts to work part of the background music to, you know, this entire set of weeks is everybody repeating the pattern that you should release

the equity market to have some kind of follow-through to the upside after the midterm election we didn't get it yesterday, clearly. but to me, that's the next thing to watch to see if that just takes hold a little bit. but we're going to keep rolling it forward to the next jobs number, the next pce number. we're a little out of that zone of basically seeing macro data that's sort of make or break we'll get retail earnings next week that's a checkup on the consumer by the way, the consumer's not been at the core of this market strength you know, consumer finance has struggled. you've seen consumer discretionary in general kind of left behind. it's much more about industrial, financials sort of that wholesale piece of the economy that's working better >> mike, we're still a few weeks away, obviously, from the end of the year where we sometimes talk about tax law selling. i wonder if you think that creates a lower threshold to let go of gains they've taken a

beating on this year >> you would think, carl i think we've had just massive amount of time and opportunity to have that done already. there is always a procrastination element of it. if you're looking to offset income, you can't do that much of it. with tax laws harvesting but you can offset gains taken previously so, to the extent that coming into this year, in the first quarter, everything was trading at a high and you had a chance to book a lot of profits sure, you'll have an offset to that to me that doesn't -- it's really hard to handicap those dynamics between that and buybacks getting rekindled, i feel like that's the -- it operates in the background, but it's not at a trigger point right now. downtrends remain downtrends the nasdaq doesn't look like it's about to turn around and leave this market higher even if we get more upside than today's pop. >> right >> mike santoli, thank you for our viewers that are listening and hearing a lot of applause in the background, as we do prepare to celebrate

veterans day tomorrow, we do have world war ii veterans who are on the floor right now and that is what the applause is for. with that, with he will go to break. we'll see you on the other side.

all the crypto-connected companies and currencies on pace for a negative week. the stock of our next guest's company is in the green today, but down 30% for the week. microstrategy founder and executive chairman michael saylor joins us now. it is great to have you back on the program. certainly a key time to talk to you. >> yeah, thanks for having me. >> so, i want to start with what we have seen playing out in the cryptocurrency space more broadly this week in light of everything with ftx, the ripple effects to other assets, including the price of bitcoin,

and just get your response to what we're seeing and how it's unfolding. >> i think this week highlights the virtues of bitcoin as much as it exposes the fragility of the crypto ecosystem bitcoin you can sell as a commodity without an issuer. the fast majority are bitcoin on unregulated. we saw what could go wrong with centralized token selling on unregistered exchange blows up this week. i think the bitcoin predictor has been predicting this for a long time. speaking for all the bitcoiners, we feel like we're trapped in a dysfunctional relationship with bitcoin and we want out. >> how do you get out? >> i think the industry needs to grow up. and the regulators are coming into this space. what the world wants is it wants digital assets and digital commodities and digital

securities, but there's no way to register a digital security there's no clear guideline or road map for designating a digital commodity. the world wants $1 trillion of digital currency in the form of usd stablecoin the marketplace is waiting for the regulators to say, this is how you register a digital currency this is how you register a digital security or a digital commodity. and instead of saying all the crypto exchanges are -- should register, we need to get the crypto exchanges registered because the future of the industry is registered digital assets trading on regulated exchanges where everyone has the investor protections they need and the investors in general understand the difference between bitcoin and a stablecoin and a security token >> does this propel regulators

to do that, to move more quickly and impe pment some regulations? if so, does it also increase the risk that those regulations maybe are too aggressive or don't necessarily get at the heart of this discussion right now? >> well, i think it's definitely going to strengthen the hand of the regulators it's going to accelerate their intervention you know, there's a regressions ive regulation, which is to say, you can't really do anything and that will contract the industry bitcoin will be the winner because bitcoin is a digital commodity and it's the least controversial of everything. but there's a progressive regulation which says this is a path to register a digital security, a digital currency, a digital token and your digital exchange if there is a progressive regulation, i think you'll see -- you won't see 20,000 tokens you'll see a handful, dozens, but they'll be properly

registered tokens. the industry is going to grow much more rapidly. ultimately we're moving from the entrepreneurial stage where this was a wild west offshore where everything goes to an institutional digital asset stage where the big players like bank of america and fidelity and blackrock and goldman sachs and jpmorgans are going to enter this space, and we're all going to grow up and the world is going to benefit from that >> michael, it's david i don't know if you know bankman-fried or not, but i would love to get your take overall on this. clearly, it would seem relationships that were, perhaps, want known to some of his investors or customers in terms of alameda research with ftx, leverage-on-leverage, what do you think about it all? are you amazed by it as some other people are >> look, i've said over and is over again, there is no second best crypto asset.

the bitcoin strategy and the bitcoin idea is you can sell custody and asset without an issuer you can't trust a currency that can be manipulated by a central party and you can't trust a bank eventually the bank will freeze your assets and the currency will be inflated and eventually it will crash. that's been happening for thousands of years the crypto industry just reinvented ftt, just another currency at the centralized exchange with undue leverage and opa opacity. it's a sad, sad situation but it's a reminder of why satochi gave us bitcoin in the first place. you know, i think it's pretty clear the only investable asset for a responsible investor is bitcoin. and the use case is, i'm holding it as a storer of value for a long period of time, knowing there's going to be volatility and, you know, i personally --

i'm not going to come on your show and recommend a registered security because registered securities like google and netflix have risks unregistered securities trading in unregulated exchanges on massive leverage offshore, what could go wrong >> well, michael, if you can't trust sovereigns under a centralized model, isn't the corollary and isn't the example of ftx potentially the idea that you can't trust individuals either and you can't trust their potential malfeasance or their greed or their mistakes? >> the principle of bitcoin is you can't trust the ceo, you can't trust a company, you can't trust a custodian, you can't trust a bank and you shouldn't have to. you should be able to hold your own keys, run your own node, and the network ought to work with no discretion for the next thousand years satochi articulated this very clearly in the white paper

i think it's a strong tenet of the bitcoin community. it's a sad circumstance that a lot of people have to lose a lot of money to be reminded of these basic principles but i think this is -- this is a teachable moment for the entire crypto industry and the mainstream industry. and it teaches you that if you're going to have a crypto asset, it needs to be nobody else's liability you need to have full transparency to it and that's what bitcoin is and that's what ftt was not. >> mike was on our air earlier today. he actually gave you a shout out. i want to play the sound byte. >> the fallout will be far, but it's not going to stop the underlying community from holding together certainly in bitcoin and ethereum there are too many people invested in the success of those communities. remember, those communities with centralized. if mike gets run over by a car or michael saylor gets proven to

be something he's not or whoever, bitcoin doesn't matter. the centralized tokens, like sam was ftt. it's a very different ecosystem. >> i want to get your reaction to that. and also other than maybe the price pressures or volatility we've seen on the price of bitcoin this week in the midst of this story emerging, does the situation impact microstrategy in any way >> yeah. the reason we're excited about bitcoin is it's something greater than all of us we're not betting on a company we're not betting on a team of individuals, the efforts of others we're actually buying into a protocol, which is spreading all across the earth to solve a problem. microstrategy is on a roller coaster, has been since august of 2020. in august of 2020 we had to make a choice or face the inevitable see dent into economic misery. what's the result of that choice we put $425 million of our cash into bitcoin at that time.

we've been buying bitcoin ever since. here's the result for our shareholders our stock is up 38% as of close of market yesterday. and the doldrums of the crypto crash. bitcoin's up 33% the s&p was 12%. nasdaq lost 6% gold's down 16%. bonds are down 21% microstrategy's performance beats every big tech company we beat apple, google, microsoft, amazon and netflix. so, yeah, it's a roller coaster, but our shareholders are winning. and we're going to stick with that strategy because it's working for us and our conviction is steadfast. >> right we've had this conversation a number of times. and your answer hasn't changed but you are leveraging a noncash flowing asset, michael i mean, leverage is dangerous. i don't need to tell you that. so, to bring everybody up to date on where you stand on that and how you think about it

>> well, actually, our company does generate cash flows consistently that's one of the advantages of macro strategy we generate consistent cash flows. as for our leverage, we just have a small piece of a bitcoin-backed loan. and we've got -- we're o overcollateralized by a factor of ten we're in very, very good shape on our balance sheet we're able to hold a distance. our other debt doesn't come due until the 2025, 2026, 2027 level. so, we have adopted a responsible strategy and we've offered mainstream investors an institutional path and gateway to get into bitcoin should they wish to do so. >> so, you have roughly 130,000 bitcoins, acquired in aggregate price of $4 billion.

average price almost double where it's trading now according to regulatory filings back in september. also back in september regulatory filing that you may sell more stock to buy more bitcoin. is that still the game plan? >> yeah. we will continue to acquire bitcoin when the opportunity presents itself. it's a simple strategy we've had -- >> will you go to the capital markets right now to do it >> we actually consider whether or not it's accretive to the share holders. when it is, we will. when it isn't, we don't. >> okay. so, just in terms of the price of bitcoin and to go back to this conversation about this idea of a store of value, i want to get your thoughts on that you did talk about volatility, but it's been very drastic volatility over this past year where do you see it going from here and what will propel it on

that price trajectory? >> well, first of all, bitcoin's fundamentals have never been better the trading volume and the institutional adoption is 10x what it was in 2020, if we go back and look at those numbers the regulatory developments are incredibly bullish everything that's happening here is going to be great to be bitcoin adoptions by institutions the fasby was incredible the lightning network is exploding with hundreds of initiatives and what we're seeing is now it's pretty clear you're going to be able to move bitcoin at the speed of light between billions of devices and that's driving incredible excitement so i think technology, especially lightning plus the positive regulatory environment and institutional adoption that's going to drive bitcoin north from here, we look at the four-year simple moving average in order to figure out whether bitcoin is trading at a discount

or a premium to a fair value and, you know, at times that premium was 400% above the four-year moving average right now it's below the four-year moving average i would say now is a really good time to be accumulating. >> accumulating. >> okay. the irony currently is bitcoin as well as some of the other tokens and i realize they're different and we discussed that. it really emerged to counter what has been regarded as government's reach, over reach, maybe too much power arguably irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies that do erode wealth, do trigger inflation, do grow income inequality we did see this bubble essentially inflated across the broader cryptocurrency space and now that you have tightening you're seeing the bubble deflate. i want your thoughts on that and while you may be excited about bitcoin whether the broader

excitement we've seen from retail investors and others is going to continue given the tightening conditions. >> it is clear for a while we had macro economic tail winds when the interest rates went from 280 basis points on one year to 5 and then the interest rates from 10 basis points -- >> okay. i think we lost michael saylor, the chairman of micro strategy definitely rizing points we've -- raising points we've seen on our air. not all cryptocurrencies are the same you have centralized and decentralized and certainly as you'd expect from a microstrategy which is the largest owner of bitcoin, ongoing bullishness around that specific asset >> i mean, he says many of the things we've had the same

conversation about. >> absolutely. >> he is the leading evangelist for bitcoin, only bitcoin, and it will be an enduring store of value. >> though he came in obviously prepared to say they are in a dysfunctional relationship with other industry players, embarrassed by as we were talking the information as the headline that miami dade county is going to explore all legal remedies if fdx can't pay for their arena deal there is sort of this halo of potential victims and complainers and what that does to erode institutional and retail interest over time. we just don't know yet. >> and it goes back to the comments, that letter he tweeted online yesterday, and the risk now of what this does to users and consumers' confidence in this asset class overall. >> our thanks to saylor for coming and talking about it. >> absolutely. >> a quick note as we go to break. later today don't miss another interview on cnbc, legendary investor carl icahn will sit

down at 4:00 p.m. eastern time on "closing bell." haven't given up many of the opening gains. still above 3900 on the s&p. best day for that index and the nasdaq since april 6 of 2020 with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. - yieldstreet presents: alternative investing with kal penn and older kal penn. - oh, the stock market is doing that fun thing again. - hey news from the future, you're going to live through that about 10 more times. (laughs) - oh, it's no stress. i just discovered yieldstreet.

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thee welcome back to squawk on the street what are investors thinking long term our next guest says when rates rise fast it is time to make decisions slow joining us now on set -- he is here. >> close by. >> jpmorgan's head of behavioral science. jeff, great to have you on rates aren't rising today but we have seen a move this year your thoughts? >> the point is when things are happening quickly, moving fast, is when we should think slow as

investors. the real challenge, there is a book thinking fast and slow sort of the foundational book in behavioral science that we don't want to react too quickly. i think today is a great example. the market shot up and if we're investing for the long term we don't want to act on the fomo regret aversion moving quickly because you can't time the market we need to draw back and think about our long term goals why we are investing and what it is we are trying to achieve. when news comes out about cpi or the interest rates or the market pops it tends to get us excited and agitated and we tend to make irrational and quick decisions. >> the trick to being a good trader isn't knowing when to get into a market but when to get out, right in terms of taking that emotion out of the equation, how do you do it? >> there are a few tips behavioral science teaches the first is ask yourself why. why are you thinking about this decision how does it serve your particular goals not what the noise is and other people are doing

what excites you what concerns you? what are you trying to achieve in regards to your portfolio regarding that it is also what is your time line? are you doing this for short term pursuits, long term gain? we have the world war ii veterans here. great example of long term planning most investing as more long term the third thing is really to remember to try to control what you can control. a lot of stuff is not within what we can influence. so control what you can control. there is a little trick i like to suggest called advise yourself imagine somebody else came to you with your potential choice and said, hey, jeff, hey, morgan, what would you do in this situation what advice would you give that friend because that removes the emotion of ourselves we get better advice to other people than to ourselves we are kinder than to ourselves. so if you're thinking about making a move today or any time just take a step back. think slow for one second and ask yourself what would i tell someone else in this situation and chances are that will help you get to a little bit more

rational choice. >> okay. so is there such a thing as rational investors is this what we're talking about, training to become one? >> there is no perfectly rational investor but it is a continuum. if we can tip the scale a little bit away from the fear, irrationality and get closer to something that takes into consideration our opportunities, the data, our goals, the market, what is really happening and what really serves us that is better than reacting emotionally and quickly which even the most sophisticated of us often do. >> all right words of wisdom there, jeff. thanks for joining us on the floor of the new york stock exchange of course just taking a look at the major averages, they have just shot higher this morning on the heels of the cpi read, which is still a very high reading for inflation i might note just not as high as had been expected the fact you're seeing the nasdaq up what, almost #6% right now, 5.7%.

the s&p up >> it is quite a rally rational or not, certainly a good amount driven by what we call the quantitatively driven funds that have an algorithm working of late as rates come down particularly plunging on the ten year for example they buy the market. that is resulting in some unusually significant gains. that's it for us on "squawk on the street." "techcheck" starts now good thursday morning. today's cpi obviously sending the markets surnging the cooler than expected data giving a big boost to growth stocks the nasdaq having the best day since april, 2020 the wcld computing on pace for the best day ever. big tech gets a boost as well, apple, alphabet, microsoft all surging with amazon. which is up more than 13%. it is important to keep it all in perspective we'll brea