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tv   Options Action  CNBC  November 12, 2022 6:00am-6:30am EST

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and have nothing but deception underlying in their soul and in their mind and their hearts towards other people. and they'll use anybody and step on anybody to get what and they'll use anybody and step on anybody to get what they want to keep their greed. happy friday. this may i blip maybe. one sector that is sure to pull
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back after a spree. asset managers. it is still earning season. we're working around one name that is done and another that is to come. that is disney and home depoe. nasdaq had an 8% gain for the week. the best week since march,, carter. what do you make of the action? >> things like the art fund up the most and such like you just mentioned, technology. fade the move. >> why? you thought it was unhealthy or
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something? >> there are two types of moves. action that is developmental and others that are exploiting. we have stocks that are off 30, 40% off the october lows. those kinds of lows are not sustainable. >> what do you think? chase it or make it? >> three of those days marked the end of a bare market. seven were in the middle of the bare market. it was bullish for them to grow in the stock. we saw a lot of rotation when they were down to 3 to 5% at one point today that are low volatile stock names, health care sector, energy sector.
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technology moving higher. there is a rotation the last couple of days to play the upside. so there could be some follow through. the tenure below 4%. the evaluates can be lifted just a little bit. >> what did the options market tell you? >> we saw a tremendous amount of people selling insurance on the market and buying the upside call. so they squeezed the market out. i expected a big move, a 5, 10% move given the way that the options were trading. so it is not surprising to see it on the upside. the call buyers are pushing people out. >> mike what do you see next? >> one -- the big news, of course is that the inflation
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data was better than the the ten year rate. the numbers are still quite high. and the numbers are still negative in some instances, perhaps not 30 year mart. market. our is the economy that has long depended on consumers to bail it out in the past. but i don't think they'll be able to do that we see rising credit balances. we all do better when the market rallies. we want to see the economy do well. but i have a feeling that we're probably going so start running into resistance once we get up 4100 in the s&p 500. i see a down trend. i think that is the upper end of that channel to me. >> everyone is loving the 4100 on the s&p 500. let's turn to one area of the market that has seen a run
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higher in the last month, maybe too high, carter? what have you found? >> that's right. in talking about the impulsive, we look at asset managers. they are sensitive to levels in the stock market. but consider this table. this is change from the october low. that is four weeks ago. black rock. it is up 50%. you see the numbers versus the financial sector of 20 and the spy of 14. you can see what is wrong with that? that is called pushing it too far. if you do too much exertion in the gym. this is the instance of here's a chart of the russell 3,000 asset managers. the stocks missed it plus many more and northern trust and so forth. a beautiful line as you see
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here. it is all technical. and we overshot but sequencing typically called for a check back before going higher. that is the agothat is the ago the -- a check back and then facing and going again. but let's look at black rock. this speaks to fundamentals. how do we expect this intellectually? this stock is 750. it drops to 500 and goes back to 750. it is cheap, expense expensive? >> you are super sassy tonight, carter. i love it. what do you think of black
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market? >> the market has declined and their revenue. it looks cheap on the trailing basis and cheap to the s&p 500. but it is trading nearly 24 times next year's estimate earnings. carter's has identified an area of resistance. i'm looking to sell. you want to identify an area of resistance in this case, he's betting it is not going to go higher. you want to keep an eye out for catalyst. the fundamentals catch up with the technicals. and we begin to understand why the price action is behaving the way it is, once we start hearing the data in the sports. you look to collect the decay
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and you're look to the call spread. when i saw the stock around 770, you could collect over $8 in premium for selling that $20 call spread. frequent viewers know that we like to sell call spreads when we can collect as much as 40% of the distance between the strikes and the premium. and we're getting better than that. >> brian, do you agree? >> the market can go up and down at the same time almost if you look at that black rock trade and the chart there. so taking some profit after a big run like this makes a lot of sense. the reason that we saw the rotation into the asset manager. but i think when you saw the yield curb go inverted, we saw the big rotation out of those big banks, the bank of america and j.p. morgan. but we took them down in waiting. asset managers do better in the higher interest rate environment. so i think that is why you see
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the rally in some of the names. so a little careful. that is why i like being a call spread not on outright call in this case. >> how about disney. they are planning to freeze hiring and cut jobs. that is according to an internal memo. the news coming after they try to climb back from a rough few months. brian is keeping to a few keep factors to keep it frozen? let it go? >> when you look disney it bounced off the low recently. we saw the job cuts coming from the netflix and other streamers of the world. maybe get some growth out of that way. but i think this might just be a bare trap to some degree. if you look at disney, it has the competition of the other
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streamers and potentially the parks. they're great. we saw a big pickup after covid. when the cpi number came out, one thing that people did not talk about are the averagely earnings. so less earnings for people and higher inflation for me does not spell good for discretionary. i can protect myself by looking at a point spread and looking at the december option and looking at the $90-foot spread. so i'm buying it for over $2 and selling the $85 strike for 1 dollar. it seems really good. the options are relatively cheap right now and relative to the market where it was just a couple weeks ago. and is this a cheap way to play
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to the downside. >> but the market has rewarded stocks and companies for cost cuts and hiring freezes. >> in the case of disney is to drop in the gap on the earnings down 12 to 13%, when you start to recover that move, you go back to a level that where people took the loss would love to be made whole. that the nature of it. the further it rallies -- i think it was a hundred and then dropped to 86 and now back to 95. you are telling them i'm good as whole. wait a minute, i just bought this $86. remember from above and below is immediately ahead. >> mike, what is your thought on disney? what is the strategy? >> we owned disney up till today. we did exactly what carter was talking about.
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this is a company that i really like what they do and i was hoping they found a way out of the pandemic. but there is still a lot of problems here. this is a company, if you bought the stock eight years ago you've gone nowhere in the meantime. we got out of our position today. >> despite strong results at the theme park and the strong bounce back in the business. the market doesn't like the streaming losses. thank you. when we come back, grab your hammer. we're hitting nestle's retail earning with a name that could come out of the woodwork if we use the right tool. remember. check out our website and newsletter. there are more options action right after a quick break.
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>> so home depot is going to be announcing earnings next week lowe's. i'm looking at home depot. they typically have higher retail sales and a much higher concentration of sales to professionals. i think around important thing to remember about home depot this is a company that got a lot of pull forward during the pandemic. we had a booming real estate market and home building market, fueled in large part by low rates. the tail winds have been head winds. that hit the stock down pretty hard, down 24%. as we take a look at this thing, right now relative to the s&p 500, it is trading at a low historically. this is typically traded to a significant premium. right now it is trading at 17 times earning. the question is what will the earnings be? we'll learn more about that next week. but that does give us a little
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bit of a potential upside kick if the news turns out to be okay, i think. also, a point i would make is possibly home improvements will be a little less rate sensitive than the home builders themselves would be. or that is my thinking here. but i'm not inclined to buy the stock. but i think there is a potential for some risk if we see the discretionary spending. i was looking at january buying close to at the money call, the $3.15 $3.15 calls. typically after a catalyst, the options are typically elevated, you'll see some of the premium come out. and that will be offset by some of the calls that expire a week
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from today. the other reason that i'm looking at the $3.30 on average when we saw the company people well, we saw the stock rise 6.5%. these expire a week away. that is the idea. targeting a move of 5 to 6% to the upside from here. >> interesting. it has been rate sensitive with the hold builders. i know you're looking for it to be better. what do the charts tell you about home depot? it is down 24%. >> it took a beating. but i like the charts here. they're identical and they're all one year into time frame. but what do we know? we know that the stock market has a june low and so does home depot. but the stock market makes a new low in october. home depot does not. look at the next chart.
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not only did it not make a low. it is i triple bottom. the other chart using the average that is math mathematically about to flatten. very developmental. >> is that what you think, brian? >> it is compelling. the room has the ability to go to the upside. if they continue to stay that way over the next week, the earnings come out and the markets gets a little more momentum to the upside. there could be that in store for home depot. and that has been my favorite trade over the last few weeks. you're getting enough moved to the upside. and that is making it attractive to own that call and that a great way to play the upside. so i like mike's call spread.
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welcome back to options actions. time to take a look back at a gold trade. last week carter and mike laid out a way to play the minors. >> options were elevated in premium. and thinking maybe the rate picture and the dollar picture is going to take at least till the end of the year to play out a little more. this is a trade that i like to use when i think the levels are relatively high. and i have identified and area where i would not mind get ago long. we may be in the bottoming formation and may have just mentioned the little bit of that opportunity and we saw that with the 10% rise. i look at the call spread of bristle. >> it is up 25%, putting this trade solidly in the green. mike, what do you do now? >> the news that we got this week took this one almost all
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the way up to the start strike. the thing to do here is strike. there is not that much upside in the trade. we made pretty much all the money that can be made here. i don't like being short down side in this environment in case we get a pull back or the inflation front should push rates in the other direction than what we saw this week. >> carter, your dollar chart, you saw more weakness. >> we shall see. we sent out a note to write calls against the long positions in the minors. that is to say, it say big move, to a difficult level, but not as strong as a black mark. but you can trim or sell calls. time to take some tweets. back on october 14 mike advised
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buying a tesla 250-foot spread. since then it went up and fallen through sport. break even is $136.33. do you hold, close or roll to january, mike? >> we have been on a roller coaster here. i think that tesla is going to have a hard time breaking out here. i think the option premiums are elevated. so rather than roll this to another foot spread, maybe roll to a short call credit spread, depending on what your risk tolerance is how wide that should be. january will be long. i would look till december expiration. >> i was looking for walmart not to change much after earnings to the december 9th
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calls. what do you think? the company reports earnings next week. >> i think this will be a decent move. the options are implying a 5% move. we saw the stock move 5%. a quarter before we saw it go down 11, 12%. so i think there is a move. the call was trading for about 3 bucks. so maybe make a higher spread call against it. tesla are something that we want, not that we need. it still is on a huge run, 20% up right now. >> up next, we got the final trade an options action. don't go anywhere.
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time for the final call. carter? >> reduce your exposure. >> by kidney while on the downside. >> home depot into earnings. >> thank you very much. that is going to do it for options actions. we'll back next friday at 5:30. "mad money" with jim kramer starts now. products incorporated. - hey everybody, it's emeril with huge news. we're introducing an all new pro-grade appliance that now you can have in your home. so, get ready to kick it up a notch. (audience cheering and clapping) - [announcer] we all love fried foods, but we hate all the health problems they can cause. what if you could make your favorite fried foods without so much of the unhealthy fat and calories? now you can. introducing emeril lagasse's all new power airfryer 360.

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