from me, scott moderna. look, they've had good news today on a bivalent vaccine, but you'll get the cancer news that's coming out hopefully this month. okay great, thank you i'll see you in the "o.t." welcome to "the exchange." i'm in for kelly they're taking a breather today, though 9 fed says the hikes may lo, but are recession a real rick, is the bear still lurking. walmart winning big lately, but could christmas change it all? the other rivalry, u.s. and china, president biden and president xi meeting for three hours today, biden saying there

does not need to be a new cold war, but there's still a lot of issues to be worked out. there's so much ahead. we'll begin, of course, with the markets and your money stocks, they're taking a bit of a breather following their best week overall since all the way back in june after a massive drop last week yields are making the move higher nasdaq is down 0.3, the s&p literally is unchanged we have not seen a lot of literally 0.00 there we have it today the ten-year used is moving up into, back up about 3.8% of course the recent high still 4.32, so still off its highs, but moving up a bit.

roesch is down about 4%. simply sadly did not immediate goals. eli lilly higher, because they have competing products. after a big run-up last week, as yields came down, homebuilder stocks are falling today, down about 2%, and, of course, a quick check on amazon. trading lower on reports the company may be planning to lay off thousands, maybe as many as 10,000 workers still amazon below $100, down 1.63%. as the macro markets hold steady, it's important to put into context how big the intraday move was. the nasdaq's recent pop was near

record levels in coming offer a low. your next guest says, don't get too complacent the longer-term bearish trend may still be intact. chris, good to have you on do you think what we saw last week, the last couple weeks was mostly fueled by short coverings, algorithm, et cetera, or a meaningful shift? >> thanks for having me on i really appreciate. we think it's a classic bear market rally you look at fundamentals they're deteriorating, the economy is slowing a bit inflation, while it looks like its peaked, at least on a headline level, is still stubbornly high. we don't think enough to change the view of the fed to stop interest rate interests any time soon here. so i think the bear market rallies tend to be vicious, they

tend to catch you off-guard. the sentiment was leaning very bearish. the numbers are very volatile month to month we don't think it's a change in trend. >> selling into any rally, what then would be the next trigger is the next major piece of inflation data lael brainard came out today, probably second only to powell himself, kind of saying, hey, the pace of rate hikes is going to slow down. >> near term, the pain trade is higher you have some positive se seasonals, and i think once you get past thanksgiving in the united states, that you get to that early december period where you can get the ism. you're going to get the pci inflation number, which the fed focuses on more closely, and then the jobs number, so i think we have this pocket of time

where people are chasing performance, and i think markets probably push a bit higher, but then post-thanksgiving, a lot of big data points. if one or two swings the wrong way -- >> though what if they swing the right way? >> they could. and then, you know, the idea there is that pushes out maybe on you quickly the economy slows. we are focussed even more so on the job market than even the pci or the pce numbers here. we have the idea that jobs will stay decent. there's still over 10 million job option to the absorb that initial wave the price precious you are -- the reality is if you quit your job, you get a higher wage bump. that's one way to do it. that's going to be something very troubling to the fed next

year, the job market stays stronger for longer, and that forces them to do more, ultimately, even though you get better data. >> any part of 9 market you like, or are you like, let's go to cash and wait a few months? >> today 'sector, we love health care we love pharma in particular they have a long runway, good products, reasonable valuations. we like staples companies here, they're very defensive we would be looking at utilities on a pullback, but health care is our favorite is can'tor, pharma in particular the sector is notive, and they have a lot of positive data points unrelated to the market, as you saw this morning. >> yeah, health care i have a sad feeling that would be a bullish terms for years or decades to come. chris senyek, thank you. >> thank you. now let's get more specific,

go down and dig into actual names that your next guest does like joinings is chad obian, at huntington national bank chad, welcome. i don't want to get into the macro, we did that with chris. let's get a bit into the micro he did say while negative overall, they liked health care. you like a name lining j&j a fifth of our economy is now health care. >> absolutely. if you look at some of the names, our equity team does favor health care, so there's a couple names where we like the fundamentals of the companies themselves we like the products they have to offer j&j is going through a change next year, focusing more on its devise and pharma, and then

abbvie has a pipeline driving those drug names so we also think things like 5g build-out, biocomputing, some of the bigger thee mattic trends still have merit, and we're investing in some of those names as well. >> you mentioned abbvie, what maybe that stock attractive. j&j we know what they do, anything from band-aids abbvie is not household what do you like about it? >> there's a couple drug names that are starting to become more household names. again, it's the sales network of their that can help drive some of those names we have a couple facing some patent cliffs coming up, but

that's okay. we think some newer dritz will help replace it. some of those individual drug name are starting to get some attention again. all right. outside of that, you've got a crown castle we hear a lot about american tower. as far as i know, probably like health care, i doubt the cell phone is going away. just a wild -- just a wild hot take on my behalf. >> that seems like a good call probably not going anywhere, even with the conservative outlooks that we have seen from crown castle, one of the things we like about it, you have the 5g build-out, but take a look at the dividend, too, something that's consistent, the fact they pay dividends. this is one of those that, even if it is a conservative outlook they gave for next year, that dividend and the dividend growth is really attractive to us >> yeah, crown castle as well.

finally we round it out on this opportunity monday i just made up a name for the show microsoft. >> yeah, microsoft is one of those names that probably is in most people's portfolios one way or another, whether it's owned through mutual funds or individually we like the cloud computing. we like the balance sheet of microsoft. it's hard not to like their balance sheet. we'll have some volatility in the tech space, but owning a name like microsoft is important in our view. last week is a reminder, you don't want to be absent the growth space when market tides turn, they can turn pretty heavily. >> they sure can chad oviatt, we appreciate it. thank you. have a great day >> thank you, you too. the story captivating wall street and much of the world,

the collapse of ftx, just where is sam bankman-fried right now, and what is exactly the real risk of spillover into other markets. 9 latest is coming up. plus, target versus walmart. who will win the holidays? a new cowen note stick around

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a breaking news here on natural gas. it's now up. it was down 5%, now up 5%. there's news headlines crossing that free port lng is telling companies -- customers it will likely scrap more lng cargos through december what does it mean? freeport lng, months ago, had a fire it shut down part of that production free port is one of, if not the largest exporter to europe they have pulled back on their production there was hope they would be fully running, parent now throwing cold water on that, saying more cargos are likely to

be held off until december that's not great news for europe there's a lot of ships maybe waiting for higher prices to off-load, but with the weather turning colder, the day rate for a tanker hit $500,000 per day. so freeport not back fully online as quickly as some had hoped. natural gas is now higher. let's switch gears and talk ftx and crypto there are concerns about a contagion risk from the implosion of the former empire joining us now is mackenzie, covering crypto for cnbc you had reports off. you and kate are work are your tails off. everybody is trying to say we're fine, we're fine what is the contagion risk

>> we're seeing a push to show a partial look at their books and reassure customers, you can treat an exchange like a bank account. the big worry is people will start withdrawing their funds. so today we saw the binance ceo speaking at the g-20 summit in bali, saying they don't owe anyone any money, and we're starting a fund to up other firms, as maybe one to rescue others. >> isn't that what ftx did >> yeah, we saw how that worked out. >> we're still finding out >> we also heard from crypto.com there's a lot of concern about that exchange. it's not as big as binance, but the ceo basically making a point they have a robust balance sheet, but there are concerns.

>> i'm going to give the headline to our audience i'm going to have to read them off my computer. block-fi, which i think is a company they suspended withdrawals, on their own website, blog post, they're saying they have significant exposure to ftx and associated corporate entities block-fi does say they have the nels liquidity to explore all options, but then they sad they have engaged outside expert advisers, and the recovery of obligations may be delayed in other words, you hope there's a recovery of obligations if you're a creditor to ftx, but blockfi saying we have liquidity, but we're also hiring outside advisers a lot of firms say they were tied up with ftx. >> block-fi clearly tied up with

them they had a credit facility of around $250 million, and ftx reserved the right to outright acquire them very unsurprises they're worried if they can keep things afloat. >> warm-up key shirts -- there have been no charges filed, i want to make that clear -- i there are charges filed, a lot of it may have to do with the concept that they took customer money from ftx and used it to plug holes in massive losses in the hedge fund alameda, that was being run by his either current and/or firmer girlfriend, caroline ellison what do we know about that because that is spectacularly illegal. >> that doesn't happen on wall

street >> we're not on wall street, we're in the bahamas. >> a lot of the headlines passed on this over the weekend, but essentially $10 billion in customer funds were 2r6rd to alameda. both "wall street journal" and reuters are reporting that royaltiers is also reporting that 1 to 2 billion is just missing. so that's a huge concern we have reporting from our investigative team, and they were looking that billions were being used on al meeta, being traded on the alameda, like, through their trading house, so that's especially concerning you can't take customer funds without their consent. what's especially bad is it's a clear violation of ftx's own guidelines >> again, i do not want to speculate, but having done this for 25 years, i will speculate a

bit. what we may have here is that the, quote, smartest guys in the room, or smartest kids in the room in this case, may have just had a bad hedge fund, lost a ton of money, and for whatever reason, whether it was a personal relationship, or complex business or both, sam bankman-fried decided to potentially fund and bail out the hedge fund that somehow got to become $10 billion. there's so many questions here. >> but i think if he thought she would stave off the margin call, prices would get better. they move in a cyclical fashion. a lot of people were betting 09 fact it would come back and it would all by fine. >> you keep losic at the blackjack table, of the fallacy you're going to win, so you keep doubling down. you could lose forever by the way, you have -- a lot of

political stuff coming out, right? he was a massive donor to the democratic party. >> to the midterm, yeah. >> i think one of the biggest behind george soros, so that element is clouding some story lines. >> but they're coming out, other folks on capitol hill, say they have an inquiry. >> i think a lot of people would like to see him just -- where are you? do you have an explanation no charges have been filed, what's going on, and where the hell is the money? >> right. >> that's it you got to get that done in the next couple hours. [ laughter ] ma kinsey, a pleasure to have you on great reporting. check it out on cnbc.com. we'll hear much more from crypto-com's ceo 7:10 a.m. eastern. they've come out saying

everything is fine this would be a big interview. all right. coming up, this show is not done a high-stakes meeting with biden and president xi face-to-face for the first time. did the president do anything to cool rising tensions if so, would you not be willing to put your money into china plus with the g-20 in bali, doing business in the bahamas, why ftx was based there, and how it complicates pretty much everything we're back after this.

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welcome back i have some good news, the dow is at session highs. not that -- but we are green, the s&p 500, which was literally 0.00 when we kicked off the show, is now up a touch. the nasdaq is about really to turn positive. by the time i finish yapping, it will probably be in the green. oil is trading lower right now opec overjigt, and opec cutting the olympic demand growth. they say they see global growth of a little over 2 million barrels a day. this is not a contraction. and a lot of that growth is

going to come from one country not us, it's not china it's india india will be the single biggest source of new growth opec does see -- this is all liquids, so it includes a lot of different stuff. opec seeings the united states as the leading gainer in terms of liquid production remember, president biden and the white house has been calling on the u.s. to produce more fossil fuels they want more drilling. we might get it next year. look at russia opec says russia will probably contract and production 850,000 barrels per day less a lot of estimates are a lot higher than that we'll talk more about that in

"power lunch." right now kristina partsinevelos has a cnbc news update the nasdaq turned, so there you go cia director bill burns has met with his russian counterpart it is the highest meeting of the u.s. and russian officials since the invasion of ukraine. newly released documents show a far higher spending by foreign governments at former president trump as hotel in washington six nations spent more than $750,000 over a period of months eric trump says profits were voluntarily sent to the treasury department google has agreed to pay nearly $400 million to resolve an investigation into how they tracked users' locations and may have violated consumer protection laws. brian, back to you thank you very much.

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all right. welcome back presidents bide are not and xi meet in indonesia today. the chinese stock market has been rallying after chinesed some covid rules is it time then for investors, you out there, to give china another look joining us is john rutledge, chief investment strategist, and a cnbc contributor john, welcome. >> thank you how are you? >> great thank you. first meeting between the two,

on equal terms since the pandemic what's your takeaway from what we have learned about the meeting? >> the expectations were low, because they were set low by the parties. what we could read is two old pros whose teams know how to pull off a good meeting. they had a number of lower-level meetings beforehand, contacts between the ambassador, between kerry and his counterpart in egypt, and you've got to admit, president biden is 1,000 years old, but he did five summit might get with xi in one week and he won the senate. he's a warrior so it's better than i and 78 people would have expected. >> maybe the best takeaway, john, is that there was a meeting. the fact that you're talking, talking is good. >> absolutely. the best thing about this meeting is that they arranged

for lower 1/2 level people to meet afterwards. that's important presidents don't have a lot of time to visit with each other. you need the nitting of the teams together to do that. blinken will go to china shortly. yellen will immediate with yegon later this week on covid restrictions and other economic matters. there were a meeting of the two ambassadors. a huge progress there. it opened up after the chinese political meetings shut down, which means xi has a little more room to maneuver it almost looks like he's smiling. >> truth, i don't know him personally not him. he's a legitimate tough guy. my wife calls him scary communists they never smile in a meeting, but these two guys are getting along. importantly, for xi, they looks like peers that's been a big sticking point, where you have equal

billing on this es meetings. very, very important >> if you read about president xi's history, he had a tough upbringing he was not treated with love and kindness, let's call it. we're going to bring in kayla tausche in just one sect overseeing all of this our underlying it, whatever you want to say, is that china is building like an aircraft carrier every six months the taiwan issue is a massive deal what's the next steps on that? and what is clearly china arming itself in an unprecedented modern way >> if you compare the dollars, the u.s. spends more than china still, but china is rapidly building a military, now has a huge navy. they're serious about taiwan, but they've always been patient. the interesting thing from this

meeting is that it's looking like they're slowing down the timetable and making it less tense, which is really important. almost all the fancy semiconductors in the world come out of taiwan. we need that place to stay together an invasion won't work we have to find a way to maneuver that, what they didn't talk, which is really important, is the u.s. restrictions on both semi-equipment companies like asml, and the modern chips that they're not able to export, either that's highly important for china's growth in the future the best is the loosening up of the covid restrictions and a bit of help from the property section. >> let's hope they're ultimately loosening up kayla tausche, come on in here we see president biden meeting with president xi. they're in person, president xi is not wearing a mask, u.n. like

eunice yoon when she does her report that aside, i would imagine the white house is feeling good right now. midterm elections went better, now you have this meeting, it's a global victory lap. >> that's why president biden started his press conference from bali, indonesia, by talking about the u.s. mid terms and an affirmation of american democracy, and specifically of his agenda certainly the top-line takeaways are positive, and regardless of the heart facts about china's military buildup, president biden said he walked away from the building not believes a cold war was imminent or a military event was imminent that's a positive one, but as john was just saying, there was no love lost between the two

countries on the economy front there was a passage from the prc read from the meeting. 2 says -- starting a trade war or tech kneeling war, building wars and barriers, pushing for decoupling run counter to the principles of market economy and undermine international trade rules. that's what beijing is accusing the u.s. of doing. we're still in a period where the trump-era tariffing show no sign of going anywhere soon. there's a new move by washington to put the export controls in place. last month that was seen as a precursor of more to come in washington,especially if republicans do, in fact, end up controlling the house of representatives. china is saying we're aware of what is going on, we do not condone this and hope you take note of that, too. >> there's more about what you said, with what's going to happen in the house, because we

still don't know john, let's not forget we still have the trump-era tariffs on china. talk about trade and relationships, those tariffs are still there. the democrats, they've been oddly quiet about it >> haten china is pretty good politics in america. what kayla said is right press conferences are for two audiences. the chinese press releases will be in mandarin almost nobody here speaks mandarin you can have two very different readouts there will an aggressive one through people's daily, and then what we have seen here the truth is we're both still at odds with each other, there's nothing fundamental that's changed here, other than the small policy changes we are seeing regarding the last quick we should ask is, should people

view this as atime to invest i klein? no they still have an autocratic leader, no rule of law don't do it. if you want to bet on chinese growth, bet on it with australian resource companies, not chinese companies. >> it's been a tough ride for u.s. investors to your point, we find a lot of chinese companies -- we've had our own here, that turn out to be not nearly what we thought they were. thank you both very much all right, up next, with red flags sort of now popping up al over the place, one reason why ftx may have picked the bahamas for eir thbusiness it's not good news that's next.

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in the bahamas, but ftx is head quartered there. it turns out there may be a few reasons they picked the aisles robert frank has more. beautiful country, very different rules. >> that's right, brian bahamas is a black box of finance, banking and tech flaws that are ideal for hiding assets now the laws could make it harder for customers and the courts to recover the assets of ftx. it has strict barracks secrecy laws that prevent foreign creditors and courts from accessing assets without their consent. it will be difficult even for the justice if they find the assets, recovering them is a whole other challenge. bahamian courts have sometimes

refused to recognize asset claims if he or the company put any assets into special protection trust, well, it's going to be even harder. bahamas will prioritize its own creditors and customers. they put several ftx companies into receivership. that could compete with claims of the american creditors. the u.s. does have an extradition treaty, but it can take years even for criminal proceedings to wind their way through bahamian courts. all the reason that the eu called bahamas a, quote, haven for dirty money. >> what are the next steps somebody tweeted out over the weekend, when will he get picked up by the fed? if there's no charges.

we don't know when any of this could happen. >> it's not just there are no charges. just figuring out what the assets are, what they're worst, where they went, then to figure all of that out, whether there was criminal intent, because the bahamas is such a black box and lacks any kind of transparency, a couple with crypto, all of that will take a lot of time. >> it is, and you wonder hopefully -- the bahamas, again, will have the ability and the forcefulness to dig in, if u.s. regulators or others are not allowed to here's the reality, robert we don't even have to get specific, because we don't want to speculate if you do lose $8 to $10 billion in a hedge fund as reported here, there's only two ways to do that. number one, you are horrible at

your job and you kept doubling down by borrowing money, or you never invested in the first place and just misappropriated the money. you've covered other financial crimes assuming there is one here, those are the only two options. >> yeah, the first option is even more interesting and likely because of the way that crypto valuations have just evaporated so quickly overnight i think that adds more likely to the first scenario, which doesn't mean he was the world's worst investor, but invested in an entire complex that just collapsed very quickly and leverage you could lose $10 billion pretty easily. >> 100%. >> i got fired up there, robert. i apologize. >> you're absolutely right remember, the bahamas was so attractive to ftx because of

their regulations. he always said they have forward-looking regulation some congress people went down there to use it as a model for crypto. >> and it's not just crypto. joe lewis, the famous british currency trader, the albany club, there's a lot of connections in currency-ish in the bahamas. >> yeah. there's a reason the eu has it on their list of top money laundering and tax evasion centers in the world. >> robert frank, great stuff the story is not over. thank you. all right. folks, listen, don't panic, but there's just 40 days left until christmas, 33 until hanukkah time to start thinking about shopping we're going to talk two biggies, walmart versus target. next

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target reports on wednesday. the street last quarter closely watching for a spending slowdown and any guidance changes our next guest has a positive

outlook on both retailers, but there really can only be one holiday winner oliver, great to have you on who do you see potentially winning the big holiday game this year. >> happy year? >> most excited about target happy to be here valuation 15 times pe versus walmart 22 times, positions it well and target saw very good traffic last quarter we think that momentum will continue and inventories disrupted across the sector. target did a good job marking down product that will help, too. brian, the consumer is mixed right now. positives include low unemployment at 3.7% also savings dollars of $500 billion. however, gas volatile, housing, energy costs all things taking money away from the consumer. so we're cautiously optimistic

and theme matmattingly like cos kohr, target and walmart. >> what's your macro takeaway into the holidays? oh, consumer's tapped out. credit card record debt, gosh, seems the consumer keeps on spending >> for sure. the consumer is still there. cautiously optimistic because seeing a more hesitant consumer. gas prices helped a little bit as they see schedulely came down but however gas prices still up 10%, 11% the consumer is rapidly ly chan going out traveling and inflationary factors what's really happening is the low-income consumer, under 50k household consumer, brian, is under a lot of pressure.

we'll see a lot of deals in categories like apparel good for consumers in terms of buying but bad for gross margins. all cross-currents we're wa watching. >> somebody says only allowed to buy one retail stock i don't know why but play the game buy one retail stock p target, with re costco, t.j. maxx? >> target. catch up to walmart? >> a great job clearing inventories. we think very ready for the holiday season target traditionally does an excellent job during events and experiential and same day pick-up. curb side, drive by, buy online pick up at store shoppers are shopping lamt lates season and ladies and gentlemen running to stores late that's important, too. we think inventory's in the right place and target, they do a very good job, brian, with

their own private labels designed for all and saving money. we like target and we like the valuation as well with that pe of 13 to 15 times. >> there we go oliver chen, great stuff just a feeling we'll see you again before holidays. good to see you. still ahead, democrats retaining senate majority. what exactly is going on with t the? could democrats keep that as well plus, why 51 is a lot more than just one number over 50 the balance of power, next. ♪ my finances were all over the place. and my banking relationship was getting... well, complicated. hahaha! so, i broke up with messy accounts and moved my money to sofi. now i earn higher interest on my checking and savings, and bank, borrow, and invest—all in one app. feels nice being in control. break up with bad banking.

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has no idea she's sitting on a goldmine. well she doesn't know that if she owns a life insurance policy of $100,000 or more she can sell all or part of it to coventry for cash. even a term policy. even a term policy? even a term policy! find out if you're sitting on a goldmine. call coventry direct today at the number on your screen, or visit coventrydirect.com. welcome back to "the exchange." one more thing before we go this hour balance of power in congress democrats maintaining majority in the senate, but the house still up for grabs

ylan mui joining us. can democrats end um keeping the house as well? >> brian, the numbers arenarrow. breakdown for the house. nbc projected democrats win 216 seats compared to 219 for republicans. one more than they need to secure majority. nbc hasn't officially called it, some races are very close. six haven't been called that could tip scales that is creating confusion as congress returns to washington this week. house republicans are presuming they won control and plowing ahead with party leadership elections. meanwhile, some republicans in the senate want to delay the process until after the runoff for georgia's senate seat december 6th this is upping stakes for the current lame duck session of congress the government runs out of money december 16th. they have to pass a defense bill a push for more aid to ukraine and democrats considering

tackling the debt limit now to prevent republicans from holding it hostage next year. >> we don't know where the house is going to be yet who's going to be the leader the speaker and minority leader, but debt creeling is something we have to deal with we pay the debts expenses, we have to pay the debts. >> easier to deal with that now in case they're facing a divided government. >> ylan, got 50. warnock winningoff in georgia goes to 51 51 is not just one more than 50? 51 a pure majority and changes a lot of things from federal judge appointments to committees that 51st is a big deal for democrats? >> yeah. that dynamic is really important. obvious, right an extra vote democrats have to spare. someone like a joe manchin or

kristen sinema bins less important. also procedural. not just senate split currently 50/50. it's each committee split 50/50 means that committees can get deadlocked on votes for bills are on confirmations remember, one of the things that originally held up sarah bloom raskin's nomination to the federal reserve. 51 votes in the senate, they no long verify to do a special maneuver called a diskarg pos discharge commission vice president doesn't have to take time out casting the tie-breaking vote and a big difference in terms of the budget for senators' office and which office they sit in. >> wonder if it tamps down gop voter enthusiasm now that they basically lost the senate. matters for democrats a lot. they want the 51. >> yeah. republicans saying miking a big

push in georgia. mitch mcconnell holding a fund-raiser with herschel walker in georgia ads already starting to run on tv there really important for both parties, but we'll see if voters actually turn out. >> elon moye, great stuff. 12th grade civics didn't work out. you cleared it up. that does it for t"the exch, i'm joining "power lunch" which starts right now. you can see in for a fun-filled hour. welcome to "power lunch. i'm morgan brennan here's what's ahead. markets next test. results from major retailers could determine whether last week's big gainless continue from walmart to home depot to target and macy's. the keys