it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks hoping for a tuesday turn around after back-to-back losses futures are higher. investors looking to key inflation data and earnings from two big name retailers for new insight into the health of the consumer and outlook for the u.s. economy. disgraced ftx founder sam bankman-fried breaking silence over the finances and what led to its collapse. and berkshire hathaway betting big and shares are popping in the remarket. and former president trump

expected to announce his 2024 presidential bid after yet another one of his candidates falls short. it is tuesday, november 15th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan let's kick things off with the markets trading right now. your money and where stocks are right now. futures indicating higher open dow up triple digits by 120 points s&p is up 30 points. stocks facing a choppy session yesterday on fresh fed comments about the rate hikes going forward with all three major indices snapping the two-day winning streak we are higher right now. look at what is happening in the bond market with yields lower. the 10-year treasury at 3.t8%

also a gut check on the energy market where you are looking at wti crude down 1.3%. brent crude at $92 a barrel. we want to continue to watch cryptocurrency and the fallout over the ftx collapse. bitcoin is $16,799 up 3%. all of the major cryptocurrencies we track are up 3% to 5% right now among the big money movers, berkshire hathaway building a sizable stake in the company of taiwan semiconductors. shares worth $4 billion. shares popping in asian trade, but down year to date. stock up 8%. let's go worldwide with arabile gumede in the london newsroom with the overnight action in asia and how europe is set up right now, arabile?

>> good morning, seema a lot of green across the asian market picture you pointed to the semiconductors which moved in the higher fashion as well then the hang seng up 4% as well today. positive gains across most of the asian region interesting, however, to note in the economic front china did come out with some economic data. three data points all missed economists estimates we saw retail sales following from a month ago it grew for the first ten months of the year and grew by 5.8% on that front that was a touch below estimates. industrial production growing by 5% as well that clearly gives us a sense of the chinese economy which is not doing well jpmorgan chase coming out with

the growth for china it will drop to 4% from the initial 4.5% it is languishing in the chinese economy. to the european market this is flat across the day's trading. ftse 100 is one gainer along with the cac 40 and switzerland. negative with the dax and in spain with the ftse mib. and it may be prudent to put the champagne on ice moet has likened the situation to the roaring '20s. the wines and spirits division of lvmh has not been able to replenish supply for the year. that is making things difficult. it is all about the pent-up

demand following the initial slump from the pandemic. there are a few questions around the sustainability of the uptick will this continue is the big question as consumers still flock and heed a lot of the headwinds. see seema. >> the spirits industry. we drink during the good times and bad. arabile, thank you. back to the u.s. investors gearing up for two pieces of data the latest from the empire state manufacturing index and price production index due in a few hours. giving a look on the pricing pressure easing possibly and our next guest says nothing has changed yet. kevin simpson is the founder of capital wealth planning.

kevin, why one cpi print shows things are cooling is not enough for the fed? >> that is the thing the fed is looking for a meaningful decline until that, they will push the terminal rate up to the 5% target the market was right to celebrate the last week's print because 7.76% inflation is still really, really high. it is a far better print than 9.1% from june, seema. if you look under the hood, and that's what we're talking about p thi this week. if we look at used car sales and housing prices, these have come down meaningfully. this means the aggressive fed tightening is working with the areas. housing operates on a big time lag with cpi strategists and economists and fed watchers and everyone is hoping this trend will continue as the housing pressures fall

into cpi in december, january and february we will see what happens i think there are reasons to be a little bit excited maybe not excited, but little bit enthusiastic >> cautiously enthusiastic you say the fed wants to see the trend play out how many months -- what type of confirmation does the fed want two months of cooling or more? >> i think it will be longer than that for them to consider a true pivot all of us who watch it can read into every bit of data it is not just cpi you mentioned ppi. empire manufacturing today any sign that prices are coming down in those two reports will be received very favorably we have consumer and retail earnings this week you can see what the holiday season looks like and any hints they can give us about fourth quarter and first quarter next year will be powerful as well. when we think about positions portfolios to the end of the

year, i think using the rally as a means of just right sizing positions and making sure that you are not overextended and too risky. we are not out of the woods, but i can make a strong case in the bottoming process and why things can get better. >> your top pick, from what i see is devon energy. that is the best performing sector this year kevin kevin, why is this the name investors should pick? >> it is easy to pick a winner i think this will continue to be the play these companies looked at the balance sheet in terms of how they are spending and put the shareholder front and center dividendins they are paying are fantastic. they made acquisitions they are kpcommitted to share buybacks i think energy is a really important part of the portfolio. you just want to look at

multiples. make sure fundamentals stay up with risk. >> kevin simpson, thank you. >> thanks, seema. let's check on the top stories with silvana henao >> seema, good morning credit suisse announcing steps in the bid to restructure investment banking operations. the lender is selling a significant portion of the security products group and other financing businesses to apollo global management the price was not revealed credit suisse says this along with other sales to third party assets will reduce the group to $20 billion from $75 billion a third railroad union rejected the tentative contract agreement. the international brotherhood boilermakers rejected the deal which was reached back in september. last week, two other unions

voted down the contract and agreed to extend the deadline to december 4th. the department of transportation fining frontier airlines $2 million over delayed customer refunds this is part of the $600 million of penalties of frontier and five foreign airlines stems from flight and refund issues in the early days of the pandemic complaints of refunds accounted for 87% of the complaints filed in 2020. i had problems. >> i think everyone did. that is why the story speaks to a lot ofpeople >> exactly >> silvana, thank you. when we come back, sam bankman-fried breaking his silence on the collapse of ftx and the cryptocurrency fallout getting set for a busy week for walmart and more looking to put the squeeze on price hiking suppliers. more on the rebound of ghinese tech stocks climbing

hier a very busy hour here on "worldwide exchange. this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

there you go a live shot of chicago where it is snowing the first snowfall here in chicago. hopefully it doesn't come to new york now to the latest headlines and the collapse of ftx. the crypto exchange has been in contact with the s.e.c. and u.s. attorney's office and dozens of

federal, state andtors in the ps the company appointed five new independent directors at each of the companies. including alameda research ftx filing for bankruptcy on friday after customers pulled $6 billion in two hours in the filing, ftx could have more than 1 million creditors. founder and former ceo sam bankman-fried expanded too fast and failed to notice signs of trouble. he said had i been for concentrated on what i was doing, i would have been able to be more thorough now when asked whether ftx uses customer funds to prop up alameda, alameda amassed a large position on ftx without offering more details let's talk about this with sam reynolds reporter at coindesk

sam, we got a response from sam on running funds, but still need more clarity >> clearly his statement was half a story ftx and alameda were part and parcel ftx used customer funds to prop up their business after it took a big loss this year with the bear market. you know, regulators were clearly looking at this in a bad way and going forward, crypto trading will look different in the u.s. >> what about mr. zhao's tweet to further cascade the negative effect, binance is forming a recovery fund. could this help? >> binance is not the most popular players. ftx was for a while. now ftx has failed and binance will shine what we see is a fund with binance and partners to try to rebuild the industry and give

liquidity to help the sector move forward which is crushed twice this year from the collapse of luna and now ftx >> is he the one to step in and sort of be the face of crypto now that sam bankman-fried, of course -- we will see what happens to him >> it is crypto. who knows? before this all went down, you had fortune and other magazines giving sam bankman-fried profiles and you had investors l looking in binance that might be true and we will have to wait and see that is the face of crypto right now going forward. >> from the conversations you had with people in d.c., what are the guardrails that the policymakers are looking at to assure this doesn't happen again? >> the 1 million user figure shows us how popular crypto is as an asset class among retail

traders. there are 1 million people who put a lot into ftx and now get pennies on the dollar. going forward, clearly it has to change i think crypto will change after this you know, for the good, definitely we won't have this going forward. >> it was trading at in early november it is still at 16,000. it held up >> there is conviction in the asset class. despite this year being the worst year for crypto with all of these catastrophes, there is still value. i think that figure just shows the conviction people have and the strength of the asset class. other cryptos come and go. this shows conviction. >> sam reynolds, thank you coming up on "squawk box." charlie munger dives into the

collapse of ftx and criticism of sam bankman-fried and those who worked with the exchange also, a first on cnbc interview with the ceo of crypto.com at 7:10 a.m. eastern. still ahead, walmart and home depot will report this week we will dive into the latest reports ahead of the holiday season what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india,

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welcome back it's another busy week of earnings with consumer top of mind for investors walmart and home depot out before the bell this morning they top the docket of several retailers. we will get october retail sales numbers from the government tomorrow this as walmart and others look to put the squeeze on inflation pressure wall street journal reporting they are telling suppliers they will not pay higher prices for products anymore joining me now is jharonne martis great to see you i think walmart is more excited with the cpi report and more revealing as how the consumer is responding to inflation pressure do you think walmart will confirm what we learned in the cpi report that inflation is cooling?

>> absolutely. seema, we are keeping a close eye on walmart a a one indicator we are looking at closely today is the membership income this grew 25.6% from the previous quarter we want to see if walmart can maintain the double digit growth level. this is very telling to see if more middle class consumers can continue to trade down as they continue to look for value still walmart is expected to benefit from grocery sales and ecommerce sales to offset weakness of general merchandise. walmart did do the work and has lean eer inventory walmart is a company that continues to stand strong during slow economic times.

as a result, analysts are bullish. >> interesting you talk about the low-end consumer it cut prices and slashed inventory levels i was reading through the second quarter report in august and sam's club was the bright spot that marked the tenth consecutive quarter of double digit comp growth. >> absolutely. in general, what we saw this year was the discounters that sold gas out performed those that did as gas prices were higher earlier this year, con ssumers were trying to save money at the mu pump the membership sales are translating to strong store sales. suggesting that consumers save money at the pump and parked the car and choosy tempee items. we see the promotional levels

are in coordination with that. the amount of merchandise on sale has gone up, but the average discount percentage provided to the consumer is actually down from year to date levels this is telling us retailers are trying to lure shoppers in by offering more merchandise and the discount they are offering is lower than the year to date average in order to be very careful with gross margins for the holiday. >> what about macy's will it be a similar story >> when we look at the data, analysts are optimistic on this company. they have been raising estimates and believe the company is likely to beat earnings estimates this week. >> the stock is down 20% we will see what macy's delivers on wednesday and lowe's. today is walmart and home depot. jharonne, great to see you. let's get a check on the

other headlines with fphillip mena >> uva students and faculty held a vigil last night remembering the lives lost the suspect, christopher darnell jones jr. was arrested 75 miles away from campus he is expected in court today. former mayor rudy giuliani will not face charges in the case prosecutors were deciding if giuliani and close adviser violated lobbying laws when he campaigned the ambassador from ukraine. prosecutors seized electronic devices as part of the probe, but did not uncover evidence to charge him with as looking to sy

undefeated washington had other ideas brian robinson muscling into the end zone for the score as part of the second quarter. washington kept the eagles offense on the sidelines for over 2/3 of the game undefeated no more the commanders hand philly the first loss of the season 32-21. seema, back to you. >> phillip, thank you. still on deck, beaten down chinese tech names getting a big pop overnight. alibaba up 11% the broader signals from beijing provide optimism for investors we will explore that next. we his. we got this. we got this. life is for living. we got this. let's partner for all of it. edward jones ♪♪ i had a bad relationship with my student loan. the interest was costing me... well, us... a fortune.

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stocks looking to mount a tuesday turn around. pulling back the curtain on the biggest money managers we are digging into the stocks of warren buffett. and the former president expected to announce his 2024 bid for the white house as he faces another midterm defeat and the gop looks to move past him it is tuesday, november 15th you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. welcome back

i'm seema mody in for brian sullivan let's get to the markets stocks closing lower yesterday futures are indicating a higher open with dow up 154 points. s&p higher by 30 nasdaq is higher by 132. we are waiting on the production price index. in the bond market, yields moving lower 10-year treasury now sitting at 3.8% let's hit oil. facing pressure as of late over rising covid cases in china. wti crude is down 1% at $84. brent crude holding above $90 a barrel at $92. let's get to the movers and money managers with silvana henao with the 13f >> regulatory filings overnight from the world's top investors

and hedge funds shedding light on the biggest positions at the end of the third quarter warren buffett's berkshire hathaway building a new stake in taiwan semiconductor buying up 60 million shares of the company worth $4 billion shares are popping in overnight asia trade down sharply year to date. the new statement tmc is berkshire hathaway's tenth biggest holding. apple and bank of america and chevron are the largest for the company. other moves in omaha, louisiana pacific and jefferies are higher in the pre-market. and turning to appaloosa management tepper trimmed apple and

alphabet now other notable moves? bill ackman's canadian railway now worth $1 billion disclosing positions in bath and body works and tjx the retailer is the sixth largest holding. and tiger global boosting positions in alphabet and datadog and service now. new to the portfolio stakes in applovin anti-want semiconductors seema. thank you. now former president trump is expected to announce a bid for the white house in 2024. this despite a number of hand picked candidates losing races

in the midterms. the latest trump ally to fall is kari lake. democrat katie hobbs will be projected the winner all of this as republicans move closer to securing a majority in the house of representatives after a series of confirmed wins overnight in new york, arizona and california joining me now is james pethokoukis and a cnbc contributor. jimmy, good morning. >> good morning. >> republican donor ken griffin said he will back desantis does trump listen to donors? >> i think he is going to make that announcement for sure because it is not just wealthy republican donors. he has the core in the party

maybe it is not as big as what he thought it is still sizable that wants him to run he will crawl across glass to vote for him as far as the big donors like griffin, you know, they sort of think what mike pence said last night that the trump administration ended badly i don't think they want more of that in 2024 i don't think he will be the only wealthy republican who says let's try something else trump was a unicorn. >> how does trump take back the white house? what could it mean for investors? desantis, at the same time, has taken a page from the trump playbook going after the cruise lines or disney similar to trump in the white house. >> it is interesting it requires you to be a

psych psychologist how much of that is him saying this is where the party is right now. this is what i need to do to become president listen, certainly my sense of the kinds of people and wealthy republican donors might vote for ron desantis they view him different from trump. they think he is far closer to the classic republican likes no taxes likes smaller government that's what they will get, but they won't get the crazy they won't get conspiracy t theories they will not get wild things on twitter or riots trying to overthrow the government classic republican political instability. we can trust him. >> where does that leave former vice president mike pence? >> right i think mike pence would love to be president he went through a lot.

suffered as vice president that's why they run campaigns. maybe people become more enthusiastic about it. maybe he is vying for a core part of the republican base that likes him. i have seen the same polls and same betting markets ron desantis is the most likely republican candidate if it is not trump. by the way, i think it is likely to be trump. >> we are waiting for control of the house. that is still in balance what do you make of the better than expected showing from the democrats this midterms? >> candidates count. i think republicans and they look at what just happened and that candidate did not do well maybe the chief maga candidate did well in 2016, but hasn't had a great record since then. maybe that is -- listen, donald trump has done a lot of tv

people tend not to like reruns as much as the show the first time around. maybe that is the american public we all like something new. maybe that is what people are looking for. >> jimmy, stay there outside of the key candidate races. we get insight from blue state voters when it comes to one popular policy that is raising taxes on the rich let's bring in robert frank with that story >> seema, there were more than a dozen tax proposals this midterm. the big three on taxing the wealthy. massachusetts voters approving a tax hike 4% sur tax on those making more than $1 million a year. marks the first change to that state's flat tax in nearly a century. that added revenue will go to education, roads and bridges meanwhile in california, voters

rejected higher taxes on those earning $2 million or more the revenue spent on supporting the transition to evs. governor newsom said they were giving enough to evs and it was corporate welfare. and in colorado, they did both cut the flat tax for all taxpayers that was going from 4.5% to 4.4% it created an effective tax increase for upper earners by capping the deduction. those funds going to education seema, the bottom line, voters care how their dollars are spent as much as who is getting taxed and how much. >> absolutely. especially going into the potential recession. bro broadly speaking, robert, how are the states doing >> covid was a big hit

now they are flush with cash they had terrific stock markets and capital gains collections last year. they have the federal aid. the risk is they built that money to recurring spending programs as we see the economy slowdown and the markets are not going to deliver what they delivered last year nein terms of capital gain taxes, we are heading for a reckoning for the states next year which will see slower revenue. >> robert, thank you robert frank jimmy, i want to bring you back into the discussion. what is your take on what robert reported we are seeing changes on taxes at the state level >> i think each of the cases, robert said, is its own thing. the political establishment in this states took different positions. california has a weird lopsided taxes from the small group of

taxpayers. as you mentioned, taxes are funny. when things are going great, people say let's not rock the boat if you are going into recession, you say times are tough. the last thing we do is raise taxes. i don't think the story if the economy continues to slow, goes to rescicerecession, candidatesl not say we need to radically raise taxes. >> thank you, jimmy. thank you for joining us jimmy pethokoukis. coming up, chinese tech stocks surging in overseas trading as officials try to pivot away from the beijing zero covid policies we dive into wheth onoerr t china is looking for a rebound when "worldwide exchange" returns.

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and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations. even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? yes... aes. welcome back stocks in china are surging in the back of president biden and xi jinping's meeting at the g20 summit yesterday alibaba and jd.com and bilibili and more with a boost overnight in response to beijing revealing measures to prop up the real estate sector and loosening the covid sector the hang seng etf is up 6%

after the strong month it is up 33% all of this as investors look for signs the strained relations with the two countries are under way and easing restrictions for china zero covid is rebounding let's talk about this with ali wyne ali, the read is constructive from xi jinping. i guess expectations were low going into it. >> good morning, seema it is great to be with you i think there is a concern we might see that dust-up intense which took place last yeear the back drop of the low expectations, this meeting is a win for the united states. i think it is important for a number of reasons. first in-person meeting with president biden and president xi since biden took office.

president biden stressing the importance of maintaining a direct personal line of communication with president xi. depp sizeutizing officials with security and macroeconomics stability. then secretary blinken will make a follow-up visit to china against the back drop of the summit last year against the low expectations you mentioned the united states can chalk this up as a win. >> the lack of substance with key sectors like semiconductors after the u.s. with the ban. we will wait to see how the chinese will respond that was not a topic of discussion that they had when they met yesterday >> you are right, seema. i think the broader back drop is what is concerning the types of exchanges when it takes place in person, they are offering a reprieve and creating

breathing room to recalibrate the relationship the dynamics are challenging in the united states, there is concern that it is not that xi jinping consolidated a third term at the helm of china, but xi will be more oppressive at home and coercing abroad in whchina, the national securiy strategy and it sees evidence that the united states on bipartisan basis is looking to hit the development. >> we are trying to figure out if china is relaxing the zero covid policy the miessage from the government suggests no, but the actions they are taking on the ground suggests they are. bank of america coming out

saying they are constructive on chinese stock markets on a sign that the covid strategy in china is becoming better what are your thoughts >> i think you are right i think what we are likely to see, seema, is not abandonment of the piecemeal zero covid is not just a reputational albatross, but the issue on the growth outlook. it will become more of a drag and if you look at china, there is a strong connection with the legitimacy and the rule of the communist party and the baseline of the economic growth china is trying to square a circle i think we are trying to seelaxo covid. not total abandonment.

>> the data overnight retail sales is less positive when do you think we'll see a rebound in china's economy >> i think this year the expectations with the chinese leadership setting the expectations that china will come nowhere near the target of 5.5% of growth i think the rest of the year will be difficult dealing with zero covid and export controls and dealing with the confluence of the economic headwinds. we will not see substantial rebound in chinese activity until second quarter of 2023 that is a conservative estimate. >> investors are betting on it ali, i always appreciate your expe expertise. ali wyne on deck, stocks looking to get the winning streak on back oppenheimer's john stoltzfus

lays out the market heading into the new year. if you missed "worldwide exchange" check us out on apple or spotify or other podcast apps we will be right back. is it possible the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

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welcome back let's get a look at the day on tap for investors. on the economic front, producer price index and empire state manufacturing figures are duty at 8:30 a.m. we will get quarterly results from home depot, walmart and advanced auto parts. at 9:00 a.m., speeches from patrick harker and fed governor lisa cook. let's get a check of futures as stocks are seeking a turn around on tuesday. stocks closed lower on monday. dow jones industrial average up 143 points nasdaq is higher by 137. your next guest says there is room to run for markets. calling for the s&p to climb

back above 4,000 in the final weeks of the year. that's jon stoltzfus at oppenheimer asset management john, when i saw the rally on thursday, i thought of you and your target. i'm curious why you say this now. is it the cpi? >> i think so. thank you for having me on the show, seema. great to be here on cnbc i hhave to say when you look at this, the market had been looking for a breakthrough on the cpi number and cpi core number it got it. it will have to see more of that going forward. we aren't betting on any kind of pivot or pause from the fed. we do think they will raise into the first quarter of next year, but likely at a softer pace. we feel that from here to the end of the year, our 4,000 target looks good and has a

possibility of exceeexceeding. >> even if we get another rate increase at the nextfed policy meeting. lael brainard says they are likely to increase 50 basis points at next meeting >> i think the market can deal with that. it priced things in for that i think 50 will be well received i think as we move forward, let's see how the retail numbers look as we get deeper into retail results here. that could help the market and it could hinder it somewhat. we think overall, investors are saying they want to be back in cyclicals over defensive they look to greater diversification in portfolios toward next year with the likelihood we might skirt a recession. >> i don't know about you. walmart is more revealing on cpi

and inflation trends than the report we get. it is more forward looking what are you expecting from doug mcmillan if he says inflation is hitting the consumer, how will investors respond? >> we have to say this first of all, i refer to the analysts on walmart rather than me i manage money for the firm. they don't want me talking specifically what i can tell you, related to stocks within this sector, you've got to expect disan appoi disappointment could be interpreted for the market or sector although it may be a large component. we have to wait. a lot of the firms have shown they are able to manage through a very difficult period or challenging periods. let's see what happens >> i know you are over weight consumer discretionary and

st staples. the economic data from china was not good, john is now the time to get in on the idea that china could be slowing down or relaxing covid policies? >> seema, i can't help but think traders are responsible for this jump we are seeing in china stocks the proof in the pudding is how the relationship heals after the meeting they had with president biden and president xi the issues that remain are pretty deep. we as participants in the markets and emerging markets, we try to reduce exposure to china for the last two years because of the fact we see a diversi diversification of the global supply chain away from china

doesn't mean it eliminates trade with china, but we don't expect it to keep growing in the technology sector, it is a dicey sector within that space that it can be very affected by politics as we know in recent history. >> john, i want your take on the dollar and back to the u.s is the rally over if we get a 50 basis point rate hike in december >> you know, i have to think related to the dollar, i think the dollar if we only get 50 bipsb bps, but it will be relatively over bid because of uncertainty with inflation and global problems that cause investors and businesses to focus on dollars. we will get a bit lesser appetite with a 50 bps move for

the fed in december. all of that said, that is healthy for the fed. >> it did cool in the last five days john, thank you for joining us atoeit fare indicated higher th ds or us on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" will pick it up i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. i'm so glad we did this. life is for living. let's partner for all of it. i'm so glad we did this. edward jones as a business owner, i' your bottom line iss. always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network.

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good morning futures pointing to gains as we await quarterly results from home depot and walmart the age old question do rising mortgage rates make people remodel we will have results and reaction. and whale watching warren buffett's berkshire hathaway making a big bet. and new interview with

charlie munger on elon musk and china and the ftx collapse it is november 15th, 2022 and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site from times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. if you look at the equities at this arrows. dow futures up 165 points. nasdaq up 141. that it comes after a down day for the markets. dow yesterday down 211 points. that broke a two-day winning streak s&p down 1%.