negative once again now, down 0.2 of a percent the s&p 500 is off by 0.5% and so is the nasdaq as james bullard offered potentiallyish scenarios for interest rates oil is falling energy stocks lower. that wraps it up for us on "power lunch." >> thank you for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. thank you, tyler and contessa stocks under pressure following the hawkish fed commentary and trump in treasury. this is the make or break hour for your money welcome, everyone, to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen right now only one sector higher now and that's technology for a change but it's not the sexy part of tech it's the more boring part like cisco, jumping 5% off earnings nasdaq off half a percent now. the s&p 500 down half a percent

and the dow as well. 0.2% amazon, visio, tesla lower today. the worst now utilities, consumer discretionary and materials. big earnings movers, macy's, kohl's, alibaba, the stock is jumping today more than 7% and cisco, as i mentioned, higher after topping earnings coming up on today's show maxine waters, the chair of the house financial services committee, fresh off her call for a hearing in the collapse of ftx we will also get they are latest thinking on the fed after she sent a letter to federal chair jerome powell voicing her concern about super-sized interest rate hikes. we have news first to get to on gm steve with the details >> this is coming out of general motors investor day. they are raising their guidance now. this is only for free cash flow. they are saying free cash flow

for this end of the year is going to be 10 to $11 billion versus their previous guidance for free cash flow of 7 to $9 billion they are also narrowing their ebit range for the full year it's going to be 13 to 15 billion. it was 13.5 to 14.5. a little bit higher on that end. looks like shares are is slightly positive now, under 1%. sara. >> steve, thank you. mary barr will be on "mad" with jim tonight. let's made over to the market dashboard for a check on where we stand with senior markets commentator mike santoli, as always was it really the bullard effect >> it didn't help. there is a general barrage of hawkish fed speak keeping investors a little bit back on their heels. we had a 15% rally over the course of the month in the s&p 500 into tuesday's high. on the defensive since then. of course, that inverte treasur

curve that is creating unease. pretty controlled pull back, today's low was essentially at the october highs right there, just over 3,900. is maintaining this little short-term uptrend within the longer-term down trend if it's sort of further, goes down to the mid 3,800s, it's very much a routine pullback we will see if it gets there and stops there. in terms of the growth versus value picture that people have been very focused on that kind of binary way of looking at the market, but there are other factors and strategies such as dividends and growth at a reasonable price there is an eft for that this is two years. you can see how they outperformed the s&p 500 and pure value over this period of time basically investors the market is rewarding solid cash flows that you can see today as opposed to expect in the distant future. >> mixed economic data to chew

on philly fed manufacturing very weak i think 2.5-year low there but jobless claims, these sort of low strong levels. >> it's this foundational fact of this part of the cycle which is that the labor market has remained tighter than other measures of the economic activity obviously, that is one of those things where do we convert that into a bad news story because it keeps the fed on the offensive that's the question. very, very little movement in continuing joblessness yeah, it's a huge question as to whether that's going to have to soften up much next year. >> despite the layoff announcements. thank you. well, bonds are selling off. interest rates are moving higher today after hawkish fed talk this morning megacap fed president saying moments ago the fed must preserve until they are certain inflation has stopped rising and that's one -- that one month's worth of data on inflation cannot persuade the fed.

eric, so just for the record, you have been bearish pretty much all year. then turn tactically bullish a few months ago and now you are switching it up again? >> yeah. early october, thanks for having me, when the s&p was at 3,600 we called for -- we closed our bearish call, called for a tactical rally the reasons were we thought that positioning was quite offsides ctas were very short hedge fund exposures at the lows we thought between short covering and then also we thought that the market would get to a place where they would think the fed is almost done and that real world inflation is falling. so fast forward to where we are today at 39 -- >> that happened >> yes, so that all happened, and if you look at ctas as an example, they bought $150 billion or more worth of

global equities over the last month. hedge funds have covered a fair amount of shorts over the last week, week and a half. bringing their net exposure up we think that that buy/demand is now in the late innings, possibly seventh, eighth, ninth inning so now, and by the way, now people think the fed is almost done and inflation is falling. so that's now all priced into the market now looking forward the forward outlook fundamentally is very poor and we can get into it, but it's essentially earnings estimates are far too high, valuations are far too high and the economy is at significant risk over the next, you know, six to 12 months >> but if we had seen the highs on inflation, doesn't that suggest that the fed is going to slow down december, possibly go 50, maybe another 25 and pause so with that trajectory, if

bonds are done selling off, wouldn't that be good for stocks >> so one of the interesting things is that we looked at the times where inflation has spiked to levels that we're seeing, you know, approximately now, and when inflation then falls off, earnings get hit twith it. this is very important earnings benefitted from inflation over the last year and a half and when inflation rolls over, then all of a sudden their wages are staying high and they are able to sell goods at a lower price and all of a sudden you get margin contraction one of the things that's happened in history is that in 1994, for example, they raised rates, the fed paused, and then we ripped in 1995. however, that was coming off of a 13 multiple, okay? the same thing happened in '06, off of a 14 multiple we are now at a 17 multiple -- >> you think stocks haven't gotten cheap enough? >> exactly

they are not pricing in -- yes, great that the fed is done, but the market -- it's not like the market's pricing in recession and now the fed is done. they are actually pricing in based on where the multiple is, almost a soft landing, yet we haven't felt all the effects from the hikes by the way, on december 14 i expect powell to remain hawkish. >> probablyshould be higher than that. he only get one more vote though he votes in december and next year he is not a voting neb. i think he is kind of an outlier on that view that the fed should be looking at models here. i guess they are not done. >> exactly and i would agree with that. on december 14th powell is going to be looking at the unemployment rate at 3.5%, looking at the s&p 500 which currently is at 3950, i think it will be lower by then, and

looking at an economy that is going to put up gdp in the fourth quarter around the 3, 4%. he will have the green light to as hawkish as he wants and i think he will take advantage of that so despite the fact that we think inflation is falling and seeing that in the real world numbers we are looking at, that's besides the point because he is in charge and that's the way we think it goes. >> the pushback on your argument is that we really could have either a soft landing or a mild and moderate recession, that consumers are in better shape than other times we go in recession, corporates are in other times we go in recession, the krart market hasn't flashed any super troubling worries. all of that to suggest that it could be a buying opportunity. >> so i think that argument is very valid, not the buying opportunity part, but the part about the potential for a soft landing. you can't -- i don't think you can rule that out. the issue is, is that the

market's pricing in, in my view, a soft landing and i think when you think about housing is a great example where housing starts are just beginning to roll over there is a lag effect there for the higher mortgage rates to actually hit housing starts and we will probably see that over the next six months. one example is the fed funds rate in 2022 averaged about 1.3% qt in winter olympic is going to be about $100 billion. next year, a fed funds rate at 5%, ten-year yield higher, qt of a $1 trillion and we are going to have all these lagged impacts from the fed hikes and then you look at excess savings so excess savings coming down the last year, they are still very high, but every day that goes by those pandemic excess savings are dwindling and that, you know, excess demand is dwindling. so it's possible we could have a

soft landing you are right, we are coming from a very long place i think it's very unlikely the likely scenario is that we see some sort of negative growth in '23 whether it's mild or deep and either one will be a problem for stock prices. >> eric johnson, resuming the bearish view, thank you for joining us. >> thank you. >> when we come back the ceo of the national retail federation gives us his reed on consumer spending, including a first look at some new results from a holiday shopping survey. plus our interview with maxine waters her call on a hearing, including to hear about the collapse ftx as well as her comments to federal chair jerome powell. this is "closing bell" on cnbc the dow is down 94 points.

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us and consumers are ready to spend. that is according to a brand-new survey out from the national retail federation. they are expecting a record 166 million people to start shopping on thanksgiving day through cyber monday that is 8 million more people than last year, and it's also the highest estimate since 2017 when they began tracking the data matt shay, ceo of the national retail federation is joining us. it surprises me after what we heard from target this week, that consumer spending has really starting to deteriorate

>> yeah, sara, good to see you it's a bit of a mixed bag. we saw the october retail sales numbers come out yesterday showing a 30th consecutive month of consumer spending increases so and we know that whole separate conversation about how the federal reserve feels about the resilience and consumer side of the economy but i am not sure it's inconsistent with what we're really seeing because we know that consumers are looking for value. we know that this is going to leave more likely to be a promotional holiday season, something more like 2017, a '18, '19, not like the last couple of years. consumers are going to get back out and revert to some of this older pre-pandemic behaviors they are going to be out in the stores they are going to look for opportunities and deals later in the season because they are trying to stretch their dollars as far as they can in a highly inflationary environment >> is the consumer in good shape still, matt?

we say they have all these savings and they are coming out of the pandemic and their balance sheets are in better shape. now that we have been through several months of abnormally high inflation, is the consumer still in healthy shape >> well, you know, sara, you know this is a really complicated picture. i think it's beyond a simplistic description of this is just a bifurcated environment i think it's really stratified because you are seeing consumers even at the higher income levels now at $100,000 and above, those households, they are looking for value, too they are trading into other brands, in other storefronts, other experiences. so it's really starting to impact households at a variety of income levels having said that, at the higher income levels, those households are still relatively well off, and even at the lower income levels, you know, we know inflation has taken a bigger bite out of food prices and energy and rent, but they are still finding value out there.

i think it's a complicated picture. certainly there is more pressure on the lower income households because the greater proportion of their income is devoted to those necessities and they will be looking for bargains and promotions this season. >> you said it's going to be a promotional season we heard that from most all retailers at this point. how promotional is it, matt? and is it because of the supply chain thawing, they got so much more inventory >> sara, that's another one, i think the inventory question, you know, in the aggregate our inventory levels are relatively low compared to historic levels. usually it's a dollar and a half or so in inventory for every dollar of sales. now we are down to about a dollar 20 for every dollar in the aggregate, the levels are lower. in certain categories and for certain retailers and brands those levels are elevated. so i think the way to look at inventory is that inventory levels have normalized

they are certainly much better than late spring/early summer and inventory alone isn't going to determine the success or failure of a certain retail company or segment, but it might exacerbate existing problems even further relative to how consumers are behaving this season >> so what is the cheap challenge right now for retail, matt for a long time it was supply chain and getting product. now is it demand >> you know, i think, again, you look at those households that are facing greater pressures at the lower income levels and they need the most help so trying to find value and delivering the right product assortment and delivering it with the right experience i think that's the opportunity for retailers this season. the higher income level households will continue to spend in luxury and other categories it's the households at the lower and middle income levels that are really looking for deals and opportunities and i think that

the challenge for retailers now, if last year or for 18 months this was an environment in what's truly a rising tide lifted all ships, it's much more complicated now and so the inventory levels and management, the execution, the pricing and promotion, i think it's all going to be at a premium this season. >> well, middle market kohl's today withdrew its guidance citing a volatile retail economic environment are you also still -- are you still lobbying the administration to get rid of the tariffs on chinese goods has the biden administration decided against it >> i am not sure that they have officially announced a decision one way or the other we certainly see that as an opportunity to deliver some relief to households on average. the tariffs on goods that come into the country cost $1,200 per family that's an easy thing to fix and to correct and to provide almost instantaneous relief to those

families so that's certainly high on our list the other area that's driven costs up enormally, billions and billions of dollars for all consumers, organized retail crime, theft, shoplifting, and so -- >> is that getting worse >> well, it's not getting any better and for up to the retail industry it was something we could fix on our own, it would be fixed now it's a much bigger problem than that it's, obviously, got national attention, but it really requires state and local solutions and real partnerships. so just today at the house of representatives here passed a piece of legislation called the inform act which will provide greater trans parentsy for goods sold online. there is other legislation we can pursue and promote and other partnerships we have to create that's a big challenge our country is facing. >> yeah. i am glad you brought it up. it was notal that target mentioned that twice thank you. >> thank you. >> let's show you where we stand

now. touchdown 158 on the dow s&p 500 down almost a full percent. every sector has gone red, including technology tech, health care and consumer staples are faring the best. the nasdaq town a full percent when we can come back house financial services chair maxine waters joins me for her call for a hearing into ftx and sam bankman-fried. as we head to break, some of today's tickers on cnbc.com. ten-year note the top spot sell-off in bonds today. yields 377 they are well off the highs we saw early last week, up 4.2. in nvidia down 2% oeft perngs. tesla back 3% and the s&p 500 and the two-year note the top five we'll be right back. -benz is turning electric... completely... on its head. bringing legendary design...

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down 150 on the dow. stealth mover today is bath &

body works shares of the retailer which sells lotions, fragrance and candles giving off a sweet smell to inventories after a big bottom line beat it's up 24%. we should know this is a stock that is down nearly 50% over the last year. the retail analyst said when you guide conservatively enough, you are bound to beat healthily. still ahead, we will break down the other retail earnings movers with dana telsey, which names she likes heading into black friday and up next an exclusive interview with congresswoman maxine waters on her call for a hearing on sam bankman-fried and the collapse of ftx. we'll be right back.

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what is wall street buzzing back ticketmaster's taylor swift disaster the great war is over because ticketmaster just announced it's canceling public ticket sales scheduled for tomorrow for swift's eras tour. it was related to extraordinarily high demands on ticketing systems and insufficient remaining ticket inventory. shares of live nation which owns ticketmaster are down a little more than 3% now unclear whether it's on this or

the broader market the cancellation is coming after the attorney general in tennessee announced he is launching an investigation because swifties flooded his office with complaints about not being able to get tickets. ticketmaster is facing mounting scrutiny after millions of fans waited hours only to run into glitches and error messages on the website. and some politicians are accusing ticketmaster of acting as a monopoly after its 2010 merger with live nation. democrat senator amy klobuchar sending a letter the ceo of live nation yesterday saying she has serious concerns about the state of competition and the ticketing industry and its harmful impact on consumers she is demanding answers, including how much the company spent to upgrade technology. ticketmaster and live nation did not respond to requests for comments life nafb chairman and liberty ceo apologized today

>> the site was supposed to be e opened up for 1.5 million verified taylor swift fans we had 14 million people hit the site, including bots, another story, which are not supposed to be there >> this isn't the first time live nation and ticketmaster have been under fire last year a congressman and others sent a letter to the department of justice and to the federal trade commission asking for an investigation into the company's practices. so unclear if this time will be different because nothing really came of that meantime, the company reports it sold a record 2 million tickets in the first day of those presales and resale prices are soaring on platforms like stubhub some hitting tens of thousands of dollars we found one for sale today for $100,000 that's one the swift's chicago shows. i am a swiftie, but there is a line. here is where we stand in the markets. we are down 125 on the dow we took a little leg lower here

in the final hour. the s&p 500 down 0.8 of 1% and the nasdaq down a little more than that, 1% today. it's getting down in particular by amazon, tesla, nvidia, netflix, meta andalphabet. coming up, the pressure is on sam bankman-fried and ftx the house financial services committee saying this week it is planning a hearing into the collapse we will talk to the chair of that committee, representative maxine waters next and a reminder listen to "closing bl"n el othe go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app. we'll be right back. power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools

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bell." new ftx ceo john ray, who oversaw enron's brupgs is out with a fiery commentary aimed at

sam bankman-fried in a court filing writing in part, quote, listen to this, never have i seen such a complete failure of corporate controls and such a complete absence of trustworthy financial information as occurred here. he points out faulty oversight led by a small group of inexperience ed, unsophisticated and potentially compromised individuals calling the situation unprecedented. the ceo of binance, which remember briefly planned to take over ftx, joins "squawk box" this morning with his perspective. >> sam foes that he was using the user funds to do trading, and he has publicly doing this for a while. nobody else knew until recently. a small number in ftx knew most of the normal employees probably didn't know i think that's the likely situation. >> the house financial services committee calling for a hearing into the collapse of ftx this

week and joining us now is the chair of that committee representative maxine waters congresswoman, great to see you again. thanks for joining me. >> i'm pleased to be withyou today, and i'm anxious to talk about the fact that we, in my committee, have been working, we have been learning, we have been planning and we are on top of the fact that we need to have regulations for cryptocurrency and we're moving towards hearings on ftx. >> do you regret the fact that it hasn't happened so far? and this could have potentially been prevented >> well, what i'm pleased about is the fact that we are far ahead of many other countries in taking a look at cryptocurrency. it is very complicated we have members with a lot of different thoughts about it. but mchenry and i, the ranking member, have been working

closely together so that we can increase the learning and get many of our members to have a basic understanding about cryptocurrency, even though we started with stablecoins and we are moving very rapidly on that. we, too, have been focused on creating roundtables and task forces to deal with what we have do to develop regulations of cryptocurrency. >> as it relates to this particular case, ftx, you know, in that bankruptcy court filing it was very revealing, i thought, and very detailed one of the revelations is that sam bankman-fried himself, as well as two other top ftx executives, took direct loans from the affiliated trading arm. should there be an indictment? doesn't that sound criminal to you? >> well, first there should be an investigation we believe that there is fraud and that citizens' investments

have been compromised and we think that an investigation is absolutely necessary to really understand what has taken place with ftx and if ftx is found to have contributed to the criminal activity that is being alleged, then certainly they should be accountable. >> you know sam bankman-fried, right? he has testified before in front of your committee, hasn't he >> yes and he was in support of regulations, which is very interesting, because he never showed any attempts to deny that regulations were needed. as a matter of fact, he supported, along with other crypto companies, and that's what what we are moving towards. >> well, he may have said that he supported it, but in communications that have followed i don't know if you saw this box report when he had a dm conversation on twitter with a box reporter where he admitted that the lobbying and overtures

to congress were basically nonsense and he used a curse word about the regulators and said it was, quote, just pr. so do you feel like you got duped here >> well, i have not seen that, but this is not uncommon as we deal with the biggest corporations in america. the biggest banking systems in the country. we oftentimes are told information that's not quite true and so we understand that this does happen. we don't like it, and when we have an opportunity to deal with it, we do. when we can reveal lies that have been told, disinformation, we go at it and expose it and make sure that it is looked at in ways that could cause indictments. >> what do you say to the cynics looking at those campaign contributions that he made, including many to democrats, 40 million in the midterms, which made it the democrats' second

largest donor, and wonder if there was an oversight and regulation of him and his firm because he was such an important donor to your party? >> what we understand about the election systems in this country is that rules forgiven donations. when one follows those rules, then you cannot object to the fact that they give contributions and they followed the law in the way that they give them. but as i understand it, without the investigation having gone on, that there were contributions made to democrats and republicans. and certainly those contributions may have been done in an attempt to influence, but of course we have to deal with that as regulators and as members of congress with the responsibility for oversight and so we will be part of what going on with these hearings and

investigations and we will do everything that we can to expose any violations where needed. >> he gave $500,000 to democratic national committee. we just showed a number of your colleagues on the house financial services committee that took donations from him should the dnc and your fellow lawmakers return that money? >> well, usually that's up to individuals about whether or not they return contributions that have been made we have seen instances in the past where many members return contributions that they discovered had, you know, some fault, that they didn't want to be, you know, blamed for having taken that contribution. and so we don't know what is going to happen with the return of contributions by democrats or republicans. but as we move forward with the hearings, we'll learn an awful lot nor. more. >> they appear to be ill gotten

gains. you would suggest if the investigations find that, you would advocate for returning that money >> i possibly could do that. i could certainly say to members, if you thought that this was the kind of contribution that you would feel proud of, then fine. but if you know that there is new information that leads you to understand that perhaps do you not feel comfortable now that you know these cryptocurrency companies particularly ftx have given contributions in spite of the fact that they have undermined consumers in the way that they have committed fraud, i would say you might want to do that. you might want to give that back. >> right and so, congresswoman, we also wanted to talk to you about your letter recently to the fed chair, jay powell, in which you said that you were deeply troubled by what you see happening, which is these

interest rate hikes that are trying to fight inflation but ultimately hurting our economy and could drive us into a recession and hurt the very strong labor market that we have seen i guess my main question to you is, what would be his alternative right now where we have sky high inflation? >> well, first of all, we have identified that there are supply chain problems, that there is a war in ukraine, that there is gouging going on and much of this is adding to the inflation that we are experiencing and so i think the president has done a good job in using the bully pulpit with some of the biggest corporations in amewarn them not to gouge. the supply chain is getting better as we move past this pandemic, we think that it is absolutely correct that you have some interest rates, but it is the size of them and it's how fast they are being done that causes

me some trouble. >> i guess the problem is inflation is also really damaging for americans and ultimately fed chair powell said if we continue to see sky high inflation, that will hurt the economy in the long term and the prospects for jobs so with the fed having a dual mandate on jobs and inflation and we already have a full labor market, i just don't see what his alternative is for trying to aggressively fight that right now. >> well, i think that the responsibility of the feds is a mission to deal with monetary policy, to deal with jobs and ensure that the economy is working in the best possible way. and so, again, we have to consider all of the indications that i alluded to in dealing with inflation and it's not just america. it is worldwide that we are having this problem. i am convinced that we can cure

it, but i to not want to see housing harmed in the way that it is being done first of all, we have fewer people purchasing homes. we have the rents that are increasing we have millennials and first-time generation people who are not able to, you know, get into these homes, with down payments, et cetera. so we think this is harming housing and, as a matter of fact, that there should be more attention given to what they could do to increase housing in some ways that will help the economy. >> by design, though, the problem is demand. they have to crush demand to bring the prices down. that's the tool that they have and that is the mandate that they have. i guess my final question to you is are you trying to just put political pressure on him? i mean, you, congress, regulate the fed. you have given them a dual mandate. is it something you'd reconsider

taking away the price stability mandate? >> no, as a matter of fact, i don't consider our concerns we are addressing as putting pressure on the feds i think that it is responsible, responsible for us indicate our concerns and to share information and have them share information with us. when we see that there is a 7% increase in interest rates and some homeowners will be in a position where they have to spend $1,000 more than the mortgage that they first entered into, then we need to talk about it we need to have discussions. we need know that everything is being done and we are not trying to in any way run the fed. that's their mission that's their responsibility. but we, too, have our oversight responsibility, and it is important that we raise these questions. >> we certainly appreciate you coming on to talk both fiery issues that everyone's talking

about. congresswoman maxine waters, thank you. >> you are certainly welcome and thank you very much. >> chair of the house financial services committee. speaking of housing, look at the home builders, among the biggest losers on wall street today. we will discuss the fallout from rising interest rates, what the congresswoman was talking about next when we take you inside the market zone here dow now down autbo 44 points the s&p 500 still down 0.8 we'll be right back. to be strong. to overcome anything. ♪ ♪ to be... unstoppable. that's why the world's largest companies and over 30 million people rely on prudential's retirement and workplace benefits. who's your rock?

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we are now in the "closing bell" market zone. mike santoli here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day and following the home builders and dana on retail movers the dow has recovered this final hour of trade. it's down only 43 points or so the s&p 500 also off the lows down 0.4 technology positive again thanks to cisco and other tech companies outside of amazon, tesla. what is driving the trade today? is it back to bear market? >> we certainly didn't never proved that we were out of anything like a bear market. we are still in the down trend the rally was strong it was a week ago today, as a matter of fact, we had that big up 5.5% day after the cpi number it shows you that we are hanging on to most of those gains, con sl dating after a 15% move doesn't team like the market is showing its hand as to whether it has to give back more

the dollars firmed up, yields stopped going down on alert for a potential it could go deeper. so far, it seems run of the mill in terms of a slight pull back. >> up a third of a percent on the dollar the home builders, are underperforming. after reports showing new home construction fell by 4.2% last month. the latest time that the mink rates are hurting the housing market diana, how deep do you think the housing recession is going to get for construction and home prices you heard the congresswoman, maxine waters, with a lot of concern about the rising rates and home buying. >> yeah, absolutely. but they are dependent on each other. we need more supply into the market that's the only way you are going to bring the prices down when you talk about home sales slowing because of affordability not just rising mortgage rates, rising home prices, up fourth 1% since the start of the pandemic.

they are not making up for that 6.5%, 7% mortgage rate that potential homebuyers are looking at you have this under prices now because you still have low supply and you have some demand out there. you have millennials who really want to buy homes. the largestgenerations and gen-z getting ready to buy what we need is more houses. we saw from the construction numbers today we are not going to get that many more new houses because the builders aren't able to sell at the prices they need to sell at it's a question of the costs the builders are up against. that's what they are talking about more so than rising mortgage rates is their cost for land, labor, materials that inflation is hitting their bottom line and so they are just not putting up many houses sara. >> i guess on the silver lining as we got a drop in mortgage interest rates, 6.6%. >> it's all relative a little bit. yeah, it pulled back to 6.5. now we are up a little bit more, 6.6, pushing back towards 7. remember, it's still more than twice where we were in january

remember those 3% mortgage rates? 2.75 last year >> of course. >> it was barely a year ago. yes, they came back a bit. that's good news but, you know, not enough. >> right still very high. thank you. we got a new batch of retail earnings this morning, macy's is surging after reporting a profit beat and a guidance boost. shares of kohl's having a decent day despite a revenue drop and withdrawal of full-year guidance joining us is a dana, ceo of telsey advisory group. do you like either of these companies right now? >> i love macy's i think macy's is going to be the winner for the holiday season we talked about it when we put out our holiday expectations look what you have going on. they are managing through data, putting a lot of newness, 55% of the assortment is new this year. i think they could be a positive surprise and look what all the companies have done. they have basically de-risked the fourth quarter and earnings because they do have the conservatism we know that sales are weak.

so it was expected we had many of these stocks at 52-week lows and i think that's why they are running a little bit today. >> but if you take what target said to heart and there was a lot of commentary on their conference call i talked to the ceo about it, it's general merchandise getting hit from the consumer discretionary slowdown. doesn't that many that it's going on tough for department stores >> it is tough for department stores that's why kohl's retracted their guidance i think macy's all of a sudden the improvements that they made in the enhancements, they are basically out there telling you what it's going to look like and they also said just like target said, as with all retailers, the beginning of november has been soft we don't know what the season is going to look like will it look more like 2019? i would believe we will have a better black friday this year than last year but the headwinds of inventory levels, the headwinds of markdowns, those are known quantities and i think people are looking towards the future a

little bit. >> really quickly, dana, besides macy's, what is your top pick for the holiday season >> bath & body works they are always the winner for black friday on holiday. they are doing it again. and that's certainly a good thing. you saw their numbers today and they are not even back to the $50 and $60 the stock had been at there is room to go there. >> yeah, up 25% today. they said inflation has peaked which i thought was notable as well thank you very much. two minutes to go on the trading day. volumes are softer on this sell-off >> yes yesterday and today relatively light volumes. markets more tentative than it is fearful at the moment but still softness in the volume split if you take a look at it not quite two to one i want to look at energy it is coming off the boil a bit here, had reached barely above the june his, the xle. you see it's opened up a huge

lead relative to crude prices. over a two-year span a little bit closer but it's been outperforming the commodity because the companies are profitable, people chasing earnings growth in the rare places they can find it. vix calm around 24 the index moves have been contained. we have been within this multiday range and we have a holiday coming next week should slow things down. we'll see. >> second down day in a row. s&p 500 is lower for the week. now down 1.3 or so percent we are having a little bit of a recover roy here, maybe some buying into the close, down 0.4% energy just goes positive as a sector joining technology in the green. everybody else in the red today. the worst performing sectors are utilities, consumer discretionary, materials and real estate. the nasdaq comp on underperforming you could say bonds are selling off and the dollar is stronger that hurts technology stocks some of those names in the firing, like, line, amazon,

tesla, nvidia off earnings under pressure today we are well off the lows of the session. the dow got as low as down 300 points looks like we will close almost positive down 20 points on the dow. that's it for me here on "closing bell. see you tomorrow, everyone now into "overtime." welcome to "overtime." you just heard the bells we are getting started from post 959 the new york stock exchange. big earnings today applied materials, palo alto gap about to hit the experts are standing by with all you need to know and we will see very much how these stocks move in overtime we begin with buzzkill for the wuls the central bank saying rates may need to go higher than many of you expect. stocks initially sinking on that statement, tried to fight back, did a pretty goo