and her presence certainly lives on. our energy transition which is intensive let's take the electric vehicle which is significant at the moment they use around six times more minerals than conventional cars. some of them we have many of them we don't. hence the importance of the operating strategy and selecting our alliances with that purpose.

third, to cope with shrinking global labor supply as well as our societies. we will have to produce more with less. that is addressing europe's chronically low productivity growth, but our rate of innovation this will require the digitalization of the skills and technologies consider around half of eu firms innovate or adopt new technologies in 2021 compared with those to 2/3 in the united states. and, yes, the capital market is one way to use those to innovate, you need funding and resources. collectively, these transitions will require significant

investment the european commission means climate investment will mean half a trillion euro and more will be needed to close the skill and labor forces and manage the digital transition. so, let's not forget this was a few months ago, but it is still there and being used and drawn upon the 750 billion euro with the focus on green and digital spending is a good tool for ensuring that investment flows where it is needed over the next few years. it will ultimately be matched and exceeded by higher investment from other sources. obviously from the private sector, but also most likely by national governments that will play the different roles

according to one report, the public sector will need to fund a quarter and a fifth of climate related investment this means that when the time comes for national government to consolidate fiscal policies, because that time will come, it will make a difference whether they do so by reducing transfers and public consumption and raising taxes or by cutting public investment. if they opt cutting investment, as they did after the great financial crisis, there is a risk that supply will not be rebuilt and constrain of growth will continue to bite. i'll come to my third and final theme which you have described broadly and i will just brush

upon because to support all these transitions we need a resilient financial sector as you indicated, the situations for banks has changed dramatically since the great financial crisis you were there i was there. we all lived through those issues banks were indeed part of the problem. during the pandemic, which was an unparalleled crisis, the banks were at the heart of the solution not least because thanks to more solid and more rigorous regulation, they had stronger capital and liquidity positions. now we need banks that continue being part of the solution

so undermining the solid foundation we have built together does take a while are for investment it would not help bring this back we are facing the fast changing world. characterized by profound uncertainty. in this setting, over-diluting regulation would leave banks more exposed to shocks and less able to support the transitions on which our future growth will depend and that would neither be in the interest of the sector which ultimately would be less profitable nor of the economy which would like the financing it needs and would find alternative sources. because the nature of financial is changing and we must ensure

this contributes and doesn't an threaten the sector resilience so let me mention two changes that we see and somehow we can be effective the first one is the digitalization of payment which is spreading rapidly not in all countries of europe, but certainly in a large number of them. that can create opportunities and i know that some of you are seizing on those opportunities it could also pose new types of risks as new players in the business and new products sometimes uncertain enter the market central banks are responding by advancing the development of central bank digital currencies. these currencies could give banks -- banks the tool to offer improved product and services built on the stable foundations

of digital public money. banks will have a role to play in that digital transformation and can seize it not to cope with transformation as is the theme of the day, but to thrive on those transformations. second, the role of non-bank finance is growing and is a worry, let's face it, not just here in europe, but on both sides of the atlantic. its share of overall credit has been rising from 15% in 2009 to 26% now a days now this has to be reflected if on only on a level field and security and protection in the

stronger macro prudential framework for non-banks. specifically we need a framework that focuses on building resilience rather than relying on exposed measures. there are many other things that i could debate and discuss for you, but my time is counted so i will conclude at this point. we are, indeed, entering a new environment where the forces that created a sustained expansion of global supply and allowed global demand to allow as a shock absorber are changing in front of our eyes and profoundly the effects of the shift are under certain. the dputy of mondetary policy i not. the ecb will ensure the high inflation will not feed allows too high inflation to be entrenched we decided raising rates by 200

basis points and we expect to raise rates further to the levels needed to ensure that inflationary returns to the 2% target in a timely manner. if we want to rebuild our supply capacity and strengthen growth, other policy areas need to refocus. most importantly, they need to direct investment toward the transitions to define our future and the financial sector needs to be able to actively support this transition. we have joint interests. consistency between public policy areas remains important in the post-pandemic world if if we respond separately to the challenges, we risk standing in each other's way if we act together, we can rise to those challenges and ensure our objectives are met and that

we seize the opportunity rather than lament about the risks. so, maybe for another theme of the ebc for another year you could change coping with thriving because we can do it. thank you. [ applause ] we can do it thank you uh uh uh >> we were just tuning in to christine lagarde. the title was monetary policy in the environment. talking about the themes that have emerged specifically saying we are moving from an era of a low inflation and low growth to an era of possibility higher inflation because of a couple of trends that emerged. global supply chains are reevaluated and move the industrial sags had gone too

far. talking about diversification in the energy space and what that will mean to the inflation outlook going forward. also on monetary policy, it is very interesting here to flag a couple of lines. could be interpreted as hawkish. saying we expect to raise rates further and joint an accommodation may not be an enough we will raise rates back to target in a timely manner. also saying in december, we will reduce the bond holdings in the asset purchase program portfolio. if you remember the last meeting, there was a lot of focus if whether or not they would announce rean zupt jusj readjustment overall, the speech talking about the investment climate has changed and changed from the policy banker perspective and in addition of what they plan to do

on interest rates. let's go back and listen to some of the lines from legarde reiterating tackling inflation with higher interest rates >> yes, we expect to raise rates further and withdrawing an accommodation may not be enough. ultimately we will raise rates to levels to bring inflation back down to the medium term target in a timely manner. as i explained recently, how far we need to go, how fast will be determined by the inflation outlook. this is forward looking and incorporates all of the different forces we are facing the outlook for the economy and persistence of the shocks and reaction of wages and inflation expectations as well as the proper transmission of our

policy stance. >> it wasn't all just about monetary policy. l lagarde talked about fiscal policy >> in the environment of high inflation, fiscal policy needs to be temporary, targeted and tail orred that's my triple "t" for you it should be temporary so it should not push up demand over the medium term. it needs to be targeted so the size is limited and benefits focused on those who need it most and it should be tailored so it does not suppress the price signal needed to reduce the energy consumption looking further ahead, while monetary policy can steer demand, it cannot remove existing constraints on economy

growth other policy areas will need to act. reing moving those constraints will not only build supply by the recent shocks, but over time strengthen demand in a world where external demand is less predictable. >> arabile, what is interesting about christine lagarde is people forget she was once the imf managing director. it is interesting in speeches like this, she is talking about monetary policy, but she will always say something about fiscal policy. given the context of the speech, she is talking about industrial drive that is biting some countries and global supply chains are changing and energy pressures are merging. all of these are inflationary. there is a lot of onus on governments as well. with respect to the energy

crisis, support needs to come in you can't just go out and blanket spend. then, you run into a situation where it is working at crosshairs to each other. >> i think the points we just some were significant and emphasized what other central banks are putting out as a note. you heard earlier on from the deutsche bank ceo how nobody should take the danger lightly clearly a danger within the union to sget a sense of how bad things could get speaking of which, she says europe needs to start developing plans to make the continent fit for the future he was speaking at the european banking congress in frankfurt. european countries are facing multiple challenges. >> transformational change takes more than solutions to the crisis it calls for new foundations for

european future economic success and our prosperity in the long term it is about ensuring europe's long-term competitiveness and its leading role in the global economic order and that means holding the downward trend we are currently on is one task over the past 20 years, the eu shares of global gdp has fallen by a quarter of purchasing power compared in parity terms it now stands at around 15% behind the u.s. at 16% and chiechin at 19% if you use international observers, many associated europe with slow decision making and rather weak innovation and agonizing positions and also some overregulation. kind of an old continent going

gray >> now sewing said europe needs to work on its financial independence adding that losing autonomy could be detrimental to the continent. >> it means this is left out of the debate as the financing of the upcoming transformation were a side transformation, the financing piece is nothing else but the heart and lungs. the sums spent on the successful transformation are enormous and europe lacks the capital and financing structure to master executive piece. we urgently need to change course if we do not want to rely primarily on foreign banks to finance europe's future. and nobody should take this danger lightly losing financial stability for

europe would be just as bad as the energy dependance that is causing us so much pain right now. >> let's get further analysis on this now annette joingss us now annette, what we get from christine lagarde is it will have to be a case of them raising rates further. chef said that explicitly and risk of recession has increased. all of that based on the inflation pressure more hawkish is the tone we are getting here >> reporter: i think it is actually a fair description of what the government counts as a compromise of thinking that there is no way around rising rates given the ultra high inflation in spite the country is heading south there will be a moment of

sacrifice of growth for the sake of anchoring inflation expectation during the course of next year. we are thinking that if the ecb is moving rates by 50 basis points in december which might be the dominant scenario right now, then we are approaching usual territory for the deposit rate anything further up there will be actually a tightening stance and no longer accommodative which the current economic monetary policy stance might be described as i guess another interesting part of the speech as she is promising we are getting a plan of qt, quantitative tightening and reducing the balance sheet of the ecb it is interesting in terms of the tightening process, but in respect of more collateral available. that is a major concern for the banks here on the ground that

they are literally -- there's no collateral around with the technology they need to do the ecb is sitting on a lot of sovereign debt of the eurozone previously, i caught up with the ceo and i asked him what he thinks the current assessment is when it comes to overtightening, but also when the old energy situation ties in that policy mix. perhaps we take a listen >> i think it is absolutely necessary and the right thing the ecb has increased the rates. it was necessary and along term awaited. it is the right thing to do. of course, we will face a recession, but all indicators are showing us that it might be a mild recession and the corporates are still performing well book business full with a lot of offerings and they show very

resilient and adapting to the difficult environment. >> in terms of higher interest rates, you would say it is a good idea to keep on raising rates. >> absolutely. they need to continue to do what is necessary to get this problem under control because for a lot of people, the population it is a difficult the challenge. we need to speed up. the americans are ahead of us fighting inflation it is important that they stay on course and continue to do what is necessary. >> you are going to speak a little bit later here, i guess, on the greening of the financing of the green transition. it is a big project which we have forgotten because of allo the other problems how is germany progresses ing he >> i think we are doing really well sometimes they have administrative burdens to get to projects faster. we have to see we make progress with the lng terminal.

there is liquid gas coming to germany. we are making progress no doubt about the gas it will be bridging energy source for the next years to come we need to balance that out, but i think we are making fast progress could be better and faster, but we should be confident and be optimistic we will manage it >> let's talk a little bit about the small and medium sized enterprise in the country which we summarize they are the backbone of our economy. they also do face a huge burden with the high energy prices. how much margin compression do they feel and what are your clients telling you? >> the most important is the energy problem and they face significantly issues with high energy prices and the energy sources. so that's important that we

manage and get our fingers around the topic on the other hand, i'm seeing the corporates are resilient and they are adapting fast to the business model we see an increase of 14% to the exports to the united states and 9% compared to last year to australia. they are adapting their supply chains and trade corridors very fast and we, as banks, follow them they are faster than we sometimes might expect and adapting and rather resilient. they will face challenges and the energy topic will remain most important issue for them in the future >> reporter: i think it sis a fair summary to say the market and on the ground the energy prices and outlook for economic growth center stage for the industry talking about inflation and also the interest rates, the jury is still out how far actually the

ecb will tighten or will hike given the recessionary outlook and already voicing concerns from especially southern europe about the risk of overtightening i caught up as well with monica who is the head of the council of economic experts. we traditionally have called them the wiseman, but now a parity in that council it is a wise woman in there. i asked her if she is concerned about overtightening >> i would think it was right the ecb now raised interest rates and most likely they will have to do this eachven more, at the same time, we are nearing recession and one has to be really careful the challenge is to find the right balance. making sure that everybody knows they are serious about targeting inflation and keeping inflation

low at the same time one shouldn't kill the up term we need in the next year. >> reporter: so after lunch break, the bank president told us he will have a speech here. he is a super hawk on the ecb. we will hear that christine will not be present, but send a representative to give perspective from berlin from the fiscal space the current difficult situation here >> all kicking off there annette, all of the bank ceos and politicians and christine lagarde making waves with the speech. coming up on the show, we round out the latest european market action in a few minutes that is coming up. we'll be right back.

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♪ welcome back to "street signs. i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines. >> christine lagarde pledges to follow through in. ecb even it if it means curbing growth >> the shocks triggered by the pandemic and the war, created a new global map of economic

relationships. in this environment, it is uncertain whether a seamless expansion of supply and how global demand will be affected and europe risk over demand and the block must not make the same mistake in banking as energy. >> nobody should take this lightly. losing financial stability for europe would be as bad as the energy dependence that is causing us so much pain right now. the ceo of commercz bang talks about the economic conditions. >> we must do what is necessary to get this under control because of thepopulation has a difficult challenge. we need to speed up. the americans are ahead of us

fighting inflation uk retail sales beat expectations in october remaining resilient for a prolonged recession. welcome black to the show. let's get a check on the markets. we have the stoxx 600 up 1% despite the negative session from wall street comments from bullard making shock waves insinuating they could get to 7% terminal rate. that did not go down super well with the investment community. one reason we saw the stock markets petero out in the end of the session. in europe, you see the picture is positive. we are still sitting in negative

territory for the week let's start with the uk. i have to say a lot of announced had been well telegraphed. no major surprises we found out of the 55 billion pounds of fiscal consolidation, half will come from tax hikes and another half from spending cuts that was the headline obviously. a lot of people are noting obr forecasts and how dire they are with the respect to the economic outlook. all in all, you see reaction today in the ftse 100 is quite positive up .60% cac in france is up 1% germany is up 1% as well we are still digesting the commence from the ecb president christine lagarde. talking about further interest rate hikes to come and winding down the balance sheet as soon as december. that is something the markets are looking forward to also for anyone watching the ecb

closely. at 11:00 a.m., we will get the first repayment. that could be significant as well for anyone watching interest rates closely in terms of sectors, this is the breakdown. every sector trading in the green. tech is the relative under performer. up .10%. real estate up .50% in line with interest rates no wonder it is under per performing a big bounce in oil. as for u.s. futures, this is what the u.s. session is looking like a bounce versus yesterday. all of the three majors are seeing opening up in the green all right. now st. louis fed president james bullard said the u.s. central bank has more to bring inflation under control arguing the policy rate is not in a sufficient restrictive zone. the funds rate may need to go as

high as 7%. well above the current range >> so far, it doesn't look like we had success getting that rate to fall. if you see the market, we will see disinflation in 2023 and i'm hopeful 2023 will be a year of disinflation weekly jobless claims fell by 4,000 indicating tightness in the market despite the tech sector layoffs. the americanses filing for the first time hit 222,000 continuing claims jumped 30,000 to more than 1.5 million. and amazon ceo andy jazzy says they will continue to layoff employees he called the move the most difficult decision he had to

make at the helm. and twitter told employees the office building will be closed until next week it came after reports that staff were quitting in large numbers earlier this week, musk gave twitter employees to commit to high intensity hard core work environment or resign. mean meanwhile, he tweeted usage of the platform has hit an all-time high so much going on there at twitter right now. a lot of changes the news it has been temporarily closed, offices closed, not a positive signal for the quickly now from headquarters in san francisco. somebody put in the sign that is a description they feel of elon musk sort of things we can't say on air. very interesting to note >> interesting i'm curious to see

i might have to check twitter. okay quick look at big tech year to date it has not been a great year for big tech companies you see meta very specific issues going on with that stock down 70% amazon down 43% netflix down as well not a good year with tech. we have the ceo of global partners great to have you with us. let's start with the tech as a whole. it has not been a great year for big tech if you think of 2021 as the year of so much liquidity going around and so much frothy market behavior you saw meme stocks take off spacs takeoff and valuations soar that froth is coming out of the system what are you seeing on the private side

>> that is an interesting question i looked into the data around what has happened on the private sector if you look at the last ten years or so, there has been something like 5,000 new venture growth private equity firms formed in that time period last year alone, $100 billion went into private investing. over that same ten-year period, you saw186%. you saw average check size go up in the same timeframe, startups went up 47%. you can look at that and conclude higher dollars going into not as good companies than ever before by a larger number of investment firms. when you see that trend, it breeds belief on the e entrepreneurs that money is free and you can spend as much as you

want and continue to grow. we havhave gone from the market that was value growth to chasing growth at all times. that is what we are seeing somebody used to buy at a high price. >> it has changed with the environment we're in what does that mean to the liquidity windows? again, we talked about capital markets activity less ipos taking place if you were a pe fund looking for an exit, there were fewer opportunities to get that done >> i think that is right when we started our firm, the part of the strategy was where on do exits come from over time. in looking at the data, we realized in the strongest bull market on the public side, 85% of exits come from m&a in a worst-case scenario, we looked at it and tried to tailor our strategy in the worst of

outcomes and tripling the capital in the valuation range in last few years, people got aggressive on pricing and it became popular to create a unicorn. when you have large funds attracting the funds in the market, they are trying to deploy the funds as the same time when they were smaller. that naturally forces an increase in capital going into specific companies north in order to do that, they are increasing valuation what it means for liquidity, if you came in businesses with $700 million over the last year and a half, it will be a rough next five years until those windows really reopen you will sit on inventory for some time. >> it seems the incentive structure because we're in the era of easy money and it was to accumulate as much as possible and quickly deploy it without

being discerning given we are entering the environment, how does that change the incentive structure is it the same as before >> it comes down to allocators we are in an interesting -- i don't know if i would call it a dilemma, but the industry has been structured, you have allocat allocateors who are rewarded for risk they think about incentivizing funds. the 2/20 was generic for setting up funds should we use that to fuel operations because we are aligned in terms of performance driving ability to glrow. when i mentioned it to advisors, they said you can't start a fund and challenge the model of incentives because it is too off market it will scare everyone away. there is a lot of pressure from the perspective of the gp to

stick to the model that exists today and i think that the challenge that happens on the private side, hedge funds are trading on a daily basis you can see and measure liquidity. you see a seven to ten year window in private equity, it is the same thing you are raising a fund and deploying a fund and you don't have data on the performance or strategy for three to five years minimum. allocators are based on two or three vintages prior which one don't reflect current macroeconomics climate they don't necessarily reflect changes in the investment strategy that occurred as the funds raise larger funds, they are putting in more money at higher valuations you are still getting value and invested on based on what you were doing two funds ago which may have been smaller checks

it is the time to measure too long the incentives drive and it doesn't matter the last two years. i'll raise on what i did five years ago. let's get as much as we can. >> does the change in the interest rates environment high interest rates and high inflation. does that come into play you change the timing a little more and we may need to just extend how far we are looking when it comes to that project to each of those projects >> i think it changes a couple of things. one, if you are a private equity firm, they are looking at leverage and when does that interest become due. for the private equity market, those who took out debt are okay those coming up to mat rauratio windows will have a hard time. there has been a boom in last ten years in the financial institutions that were the exit

strategy you have funds linked to others buying up midcap tech companies. if they are not able to use leverage to juice their returns, you might see a drop in that avenue as an exit path for companies. when you talk about venture and growth, debt is not something we use very often i think we're more insulated from that. i know i'm rambling on that said, there is a major change happening on the funding side which is a lot of funds are now actively telling companies do in theraise private equity. don't take from other investors. go take debt instead. >> it is interesting you traise that one interesting thing is twitter and elon musk took on ta ton of debt the banks are sitting on the

debt as well it will be very challenging for them to sell it on what is your perspective on deals financed by this amount of debt >> if done well. it is very effective if done with little too much ambition, it could be dangerous. i started investing in 2008. the u.s. market was coming down. we had at the time a number of companies taken seven times leverage in the portfolio. that was challenging to overcome we had gone into a path of not using debt for years until we finally got over the hurt from 2008 so i think the changes that happened in debt issuance on tech companies, you have to rate debt on ebita. with the advent of sass where you pull cash in but ebita negative and growing quickly, it became difficult to raise debt

that moved that metric to multiples of err that is a dangerous place to be in environment if you have increasing and err contracting, you will have a hard time servicing that debt. >> tricky environment with interest rates go up we will have to leave it there thank you so much for joining us today in studio. great to see you the ceo of full partners joining us around the set. also coming up on the show, the uk chancellor jeremy hunt announces cuts in spending we'll discuss more after the break. why do nearly one million businesses choose stamps.com to mail and ship? stamps.com is convenient you get the services of the post office right on your computer stamps.com saves you money with great rates from usps and ups mail letters ship packages

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everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. ♪ welcome back jeremy hunt, uk chancellor, announced a broad plan to cut spending and raise taxes the plan does seek to restore the britain economic credibility and reassure markets, but will bring more financial hardship to

millions uk is already in a recession that will last over a year the economy is expected to shrink 1.4% in 2023 and not return to pre-pandemic levels until 2024 speaking to our sister channel sky news, hunt said the country must brace for difficult times ahead. >> over the next two years, it is going to be challenging, but i think people want a government taking difficult decisions and has a plan to bring down inflation and stop the rises in the weekly energy bills and shop at the same time taking measures to get through the difficult period the support for energy bills will mean the average house will have 500 pounds less to pay in energy bills we increased the national living wage which means 1600 pounds in the pay pacts of people who work full-time and protecting the triple lot for pensioners.

we are doing everything we can to help people >> the uk is set for the worst decline in living standard since the 1950s as inflation eats into disposable income. the office of responsibility says the burden will reach 50% of the gdp in five years the highest since world war ii and a partial recovery in the month of october, but below pre-pandemic levels. retail sales rose month on month. double the exexpectations. joumanna, we have expected the number to drop off considerably. we had a fair decline in the previous months at 1.7 in august minus 1.5 in september increase of 0.6% could there be a ramp up in retail sales despite how

depressed the consumer is? we know how christmas can help things along a little bit. it would be a facade in the mix. you still have the energy situation where treasury will introduce the review into how exactly they can help the situation post april at the same time, you have the deteriorating growth outlook which is, of course, bearish for the pound. the obr seems to feel optimistic opposed to the bank of england the question is who is right >> i think there is a lot to unpack with this uk budget because one thing jgeoff was saying yesterday was it is difficult for the government to get right. they are trying to satisfy the markets and satisfy the conservative mps they also want to satisfy the electorate they are under the rising costs

with the recession the obr says we are in recession. the balance is tricky. it seems looking at the re reaction, they managed to tick a few of the boxes the financial markets has been muted. i thought it was interesting that moody's came out yesterday and said the plan has restored credibility, but still risk remains. particularly alluding to the debt-to-gdp for the next few years. i thought it was interesting in the statements yesterday, they said by thing fifth year the gdp level will start falling that is what the international community wanted to hear >> it is that return to fiscal responsibility, right, that is really what everybody was looking forward to the notion that the bank of england governor andrew bailey saying that reduced significantly. now seems to have been canceled. you speak about that market

reaction it being benign. i think it is definitely a tick for the market sag having said t i think this is very appease co >> wearing my fixed income hat we talk about austerity budget it is not an austerity budget until later on the next couple years are not us t austerity. they have to issue 300 pounds of gilt at the time the bank of england is not buying, but selling gilts. it is interesting to see the clearing price for the gilts that need to come to market. >> does that mean the growth projection could change if we are looking at that risk moving on >> and i suppose 2024 would have

been another general election. we don't know if it is this government. >> more to look forward to let's take a quick look at futures before we head out today. the picture is positive. a little turn around from yesterday. all of the three majors are opening in positive territory. brushing off the blurred comments from the higher terminal rate. >> that is the pressure. that is it for the show this morning. thank you for joining us i'm arabile gumede >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. happy friday, everyone

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." stocks on track for their second down week in three as hawkish comments from the fed outweigh easing inflation pressure. work harder or be shown the door the message from elon musk as staffers chose the latter ahead of yesterday's 5:00 p.m. deadline now washington is looking to get involved. it turns out the sale was