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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  November 21, 2022 4:00am-5:00am EST

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a of society that suffered by that corruption. whenever somebody who's in public power is lining their pockets, everybody who believed in them suffers. -- captions by vitac -- good morning of welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche investors assess the future of the monetary tightening. asian equities reclaim ground as china locks down the biggest districts in guanzhou.
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and disney takes back bob iger after a disappointing quarter. and cryptocurrencies sink has ftx admits it owes more than $3 billion as the new ceo scrambles to sell or restructure the rest of the business good morning welcome to "street signs." this is the start of the trading week you see there is already a lot of red behind me it was not positive from asia overnight with talks of further covid restrictions and a couple of deaths in china for the first time in months
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that has set the tone for the asian equity session you see in europe with the stoxx 600 down .25%. starting off the week in negative territory this after a mixed week last week and end of the week as well let's dive in at individual indiv indices. and right at the bottom, the mining names glencore struggling to get a bid today on back of the restrictions in china. cac in france is down .60% and germany is down as we well .60%. also worth pointing out the ppi number german producer price index number came in pbetter than expected those lower electricity prices
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are finally beginnin factored in. it is moving in the right direction. the only spot of green is the spanish index. up .30%. you see the break yodown we'll talk more in a moment. basic resources down 1.7%. retail down .90% it has been quite the big week for retail the u.s. last week with target kicking off pointing to a muted outlook. we have thanksgiving coming up this week. all eyes will be on black friday sales and how it impacts the retail industry not just in the u.s., but europe as well more retailers are catching on to the black friday trend. oil and gas down .90%. taking their cue from the price of oil we have the defenses, utilities
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and healthcare up .30% in terms of minors this is what we see on the back of the weakness transpiring in china. the minors that are uk based which is down 1% to 2% rio tinto down .60% which is setting the tone germany factory prices came in better than expected in october. for the year, it jumped34.5% lower than expectations. the atlanta fed bostic says he expects 75 to 100 which is sufficient to tackle inflation this after inflation prints have come in lower fuelling that
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inflation has peaked boston fed president susan collins says it has changed how it assesses the employment data. >> this remains the current imperative and it is clear there is more work to be done. i expect this will require additional increases in the federal funds rate followed by a period of holding rates at a sufficiently restrictive level for some time. pandemic related adjustments like increased remote work and automation of service sector jobs have the potential to affect supply in the longer run. these trends will have differential impacts on workers. this is important because the fed mandate is to support a healthy economy with price stability and maximum employment for everyone policymakers must assess which
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labor market changes are likely to last. >> let's talk more about china beijing's biggest district ordered people to stay home with businesses closed and schools switching to online closes this after an uptick in covid cases and the first death in months guangzhou ordered a lockdown despite the ramp up, hsbc is switching to overweight. joining us from hsbc is the analyst. let's start with the news overnight from china it is not positive you see the reaction today in european stocks. any stock with links to china is under performing because of renewed fears of a protracted covid lockdown we are seeing covid deaths overnight. i see in your report for next
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year, you are turning more positive on the outlook. tell us why. >> markets are always going to react to news and it will not be a straight line. we are going into winter where covid cases can pick up. nevertheless, we think there is a change in tone and policy measures regarding covid with a gradual relaxation the government wants to find a better balance with covid containment and control and then growth as well we foresee further measures with vaccinations we had a very strong reaction, of course, to the first covid measures relaxation because the market was pessimistic. that won't go up in the same extent you know, at the same pace we think we find that better balance. measures regarding properties. >> i guess you think we reached
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peak maximum bearishness you think about the growth outlook and china growth continues to disappoint relative to inventory you find the meeting on the sidelines of the g20 and the tone is still firm from china. you have the covid concerns as well how do you navigate? >> it is peak bearishness. you reduce the tail risk and there is an extremely cheap market more so relative to the developed markets. a 6-to-12 month outlook. it is a good growth return with the covid, there is a tail reduction. not a big pick up in economic growth we are not looking for a big pick up. not in the first quarter the second half, you could see
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that pick up we are also seeing much less of that down side tail risk in the property sector, it is lending to developers to households as well treating the private sector the same and extending the materials, et cetera will that give people that confidence that you won't see a collapse in economic growth? people are extremely under weight in china. >> rightly so. the performance has been pretty bad this year so far to your point, they announced new property measures last week. i want to say today in germany, you are getting producer price index numbers. it is still extremely high we had the cpi print in the u. lu.s. the week before.
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do you think we had hit peak inflation? >> we probably have in u.s in the inflation continued to decouple because of utility bills feeding into the costs of producing goods you know, the fight is not over of the what is important is that peak rates are probably lagged relative to the peak inflation and your economic cycle has another lag relative to that that's the problem we have with europe stock markets we are only starting the recession in europe. in the uk, we have been in it for a while. it will continue until the end of next year the cyclical tailwind is big for europe. >> how does that translate to
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where you want to position yourself how does that translate where you put your money >> the first indication of the lag, take exposure before cyclical exposexposure the lags are on economic >> do you buy treasuries >> you buy bonds we are most overweight on the investment rate space with short to medium weight with treasuries, we think the rally the last few weeks has been sharp with the six months, we are bullish on treasuries. you buy the bond market with good quality you continue to have that recessionary outlook you are not yet buying the equity market. within the equity market, we discussed overweight on china and we have a preference for u.s. rather than europe. >> you were saying about spread
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products is interesting. pick a hole there. that's what we do. if the fed rate is higher, you had james bullard suggest they could go as high as 7% let's say they go higher what does that do to the spread product thesis >> for the moment, the market is pricing in something like 4.4. first, obviously, going higher the main problem we have with the market is not the peak rate, but it will have cuts in 2023, which we don't see let's say we stay 5% level and i do think that maybe you have a little bit of volatility in the shorter end. if you have a six-month view and three-month view and a 12-month view, bonds are a good value better here than equities. when you look at our capital markets, we have shifted them
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more in terms of prospective earnings for the next 5 to 10 years for bonds and relative to cash as well. >> why do you say that why given the value proposition? why are fixed incomes a more a track tattractive play? >> you look at the bond yield changes, earnings yield changes should have moved more you know, certainly for the year as a whole, they moved up less than earnings yields if you compare to the relative risk you are taking, you are taking more cyclical risk in the equity markets the longer term view is leading to bonds again, a lot of our clients have never really looked at bonds in much detail. yields were too low. >> also for years a carry market you just bought fixed income and
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it worked in your favor until all of a sudden it didn't last year final question to round things up the view on the u.s. dollar here i'm guessing is bearish. what do you buy against it >> we have moved up the u.s. dollar from a positive to a neutral view we are not yet bearish the main driver of the u.s. dollar where interest rates and negative cycle and the risk appetite and two of those are still in place the risk differentials are not widening if you believe the fed is close to ending that means you go from bullish to neutral, but not negative that negative cycle around is still propping up. >> not yet >> it is important to look at what could change your view and it is really the cycle at the end of the fed rate hike sicycl. >> thank you very much for
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coming on, willem. thank you for making time. willem sels from hsbc. now hong kong chief executive has tested positive for covid after returning from the summit in bangkok. john lee is isolating and working from home. a quick look at asian markets. we talked at the top of the show about the asian maasian markets. hang seng is down 1.8% and the only spot of green is the nikkei at .16% as for oil as well, it is having an issue in oil prices brent is down. .90%
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wti is below $80 trading at .50%. it feels like a long time ago since opec plus decided to reduce output by 2 million barrels a day. it hasn't made a dent. coming up on "street signs." bob iger returns to the top of the house of mouse after the issue and shakeup with bob chapek we'll have more on that story next hi. i'm shannon storms bador.
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welcome back to the show big news in the world of media bob iger returned as ceo of disney with bob chapek stepping down after 33 months in charge disney says iger will serve for two years and has been tasked with renewing growth at the entertainment giant. iger acknowledged describing amazement at his appointment chapek has come under fire since c
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b becoming ceo and the rift with him and iger weighed on the mo morale on the company. we are taking a quick look at pre-market trade it it looks like disney will open up .9% that is something we will watch closely when the u.s. opens. let's bring in the senior analyst from lansdown. it feels like the big news with the sudden departure of chapek and iger returning back to the fold is this a big deal >> it is a really big deal as you say, it came as a surprise to the industry yes, stock up .9% pre-market trading and it would reverse
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immediately after with results which were disan pppointing forh quarter. it showed revenue risen 9% operating profit was only up 1%. this is because of huge sums being poured into disney plus and content and marketing costs. actually that had caused real concern among investors because the forecast for disney plus will turn profitable in 2024, but we don't know yet how profitable it reaches that milestone. mean meanwhile, the business relies on the parks and theme parks and the business in cruises. it is a headwind for the part of the businesses there have been so many jitters around the stock recently. there will be real hope that it
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will be the sorcerer to bring magic back to the business it depends who is the apprentice or who can affect change with so many global headwinds whipping around >> you talked about the headwinds. on the streaming aspect, sussannah, this is not just the disney plus. net flick stock is down for the year, too. how much can be brought back to the general environment which is not positive for vstreamers over leadership >> this is a balance with spending and the subscriber numbers have been great. good showing for disney. creeping up. beating netflix at the last count. so in terms of subscriber numbers, they have been doing extremely well
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the problem is how much to pay to keep getting those numbers higher and is it worth that amount of money? actually, disney, to some extent can rely heavily on the back catalog and selling from the parks businesses and cruises to streaming. if you get the younger generation going to the disney parks, they can fall in love with the characters to feed the streaming side of the business without spending quite so much money as they have been doing so in marketing and new content maybe that is likely to be a shift because we don't want to see so much more money poured into the business at a time when actually the subscriber numbers and growth isn't expected to tail off i think that is going to be a bit of a change. as you say, of course, netflix surprised us on the upside with the latest update. it is going to be even tougher
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in the streaming wars ahead as people have less disposable money in real key markets. >> the cost of living crisis will have an impact on the streamers ability to perform what do you think the priorities of bob iger will be? he will come in for two years now and take over from bob chapek what is he focused on? >> it will be on cutting costs in terms of what is poured into the streaming business in particular and looking at ways where perhaps the back catalog can be bolstered further and how it is created with the rest of the business and try to feed that and loopback in term of the revenue with the theme parks and subscriber growth rather than
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piling in marketing and content spend. that is what has caused the nervousness. the sheer money poured in. on the wider business, looking at how to maintain resilience for the parks because people will have less money to spend. they may still want to go to have the experiences and signs people want budgets for experiences, but it is sales of merchandise which could be tricky and that is where perhaps there will be quite a lot of attention to whether or not you can keep those revenue extremes c streams. >> how much was this politically motivated? bob chapek had a run-in with the governor of florida ron desantis over the don't say gay bill. that was a big issue as the
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beginning of the tenure. now we know ron desantis is one of the leading candidates to take over the leadership of the republican party and potentially become u.s. president. do you think there was some political aspects of this changeover and one reason why bob iger decided to come back again? >> there may have been a political element to it. fundamentally i think it is what's on the balance sheet which sparked the change rather than the political sphere. we don't know how it will all play out with the republican party nomination i do think it did have some impact which was tricky. i think the narrative has moved on to really the headwinds affecting the business and what is happening with disney plus and how resilience be maintained across the business more so than
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all of the political concerns. >> fair enough we will leave it there thank you for joining me today susa n s susannah streeter. now elon musk reinstated trump's account on the platform. trump will be reinstated after 51.8% voted in favor of reversing the ban imposed after the storming of the u.s. capitol on january 6th however, trump appeared to snub the move and said he not see any reason to return and will stick with his social media truth social >> i like he bought it i always liked him i got along with him well. he did put up a poll it is overwhelming coming up on "street signs." ftx reveals it owes more than $3
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welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche these are your headlines equities in the red as investors assess the likelihood of future monetary policy tightening. asian equities retain ground as china locks down in beijing after the first covid death in six months and disney brings back bob iger retaking the top spot from bob chapek as the house of mouse looks to gain momentum after the disappointing quarter. and cryptocurrencies sink as ftx states it owes more than $3 billion as the new ceo looks to restructure the business ftx owes more than $3 billion to the top 50 creditors
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according to the court filing from the collapsed cryptocurrency $1.45 billion is owed to the top ten creditors and two customers owed $2 million each new ftx ceo says the exchange is aiming to sell or restructure the global business. many of the company's sub subsidiaries still have solvent balance sheets let's bring in the head of the government affairs good morning to you. >> thank you for having me >> is this equal to a lehman moment for the industry? >> i think there is that element to it for sure there is a big moment when it comes to regulation coming for sure in the crypto sphere. i'm not sure it would be the same as it was a couple years
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ago. ftx was a centralized exchange think of it as a financial institution that already has the corporate governance and other obligations in place that traditional financial institutions have today. a, most jurisdictions have on the books laws that already deal with ftx and the fallout from ftx. consumer and investment protection and corporate standards and fraud statutes criminal and civil a, regulators already know how to deal with the fallout from the ftx as you equated it to lehman b, regulators have been thinking over the last few years on how to regulate this space we've already seen action from the eu in the form of the markets and cryptocurrency assets legislation all over the world as well regulators are thinking in ways
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about how to regulate the space. if this was a couple years ago, we would have seen scrambling the way we did in the wake of the launch of libre. facebook's failed stablecoin project. >> when you talking about regulating an asset class, the assumption is the asset is worth regu regulating i wonder if that is a valued question to ask about crypto and does this have a real-world use beyond scams and money laundering >> i think it is a fair question given what we have seen the rer rer real events with ftx and others. you need to look at the qualities of the technology. the quality of blockchains that enables people to transfer funds at the speed of the internet in a decentralized way.
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i think part of the tragedy around ftx it was not a business harnessing the technology. it was more akin to traditional financial institution as decentralized protocol using the technology and idea where you can move funds on a permanent and traceable ledger we talk about fraud and financial crime. the qualities of cryptocurrency allow the investigation of fraud and financial crime with tools like trm in ways that were impossible in traditional currency you can track and trace flow of funds on a permanent, forever public ledger. that actually has allowed investigators from law enforcement globally from regulators to have more visibility on financial flows than before. in talking about ftx and the other cases, it is so important to separate the business from the technology >> fair enough
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to your point about the business here the main issue is ftx was gambling with customer deposits. it was every customer deposit should have been backed. do you think regulators spent too much time focusing on kyc and aml assets as opposed to pushing for transparency and disclosures? >> i think both are important. you said that very well. there are already laws on the books in almost every jurisdictions forbidding the activities that ftx was engaged in comingling client funds. i was a prosecutor for 11 years in the united states i can tell you there are already laws with wire fraud and others that deal with the issues from the criminal perspective so i think it is really, really
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important to separate the activity in ftx from any need for a new regulation that said, i think it is important to work on both. anti-money laundering is important not just in crypto, but financial space. it is important with kyc and at the same time, we need more legal clarity and more transparency in the space. >> just to round up the discussion is it likely we get another situation like ftx in the coming months we had a bunch of crypto failures this year ftx being the largest. do you rule out others >> i think we're in a moment here i don't think you can rule out others i'm hopeful if you look globally from monetary authority from singapore which addresses many of the issues in ftx and
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european parliament members out last week talking about the licensing regime could have stopped in ftx you look at the white house executive order and the activity on capitol hill. i think we need to move faster if ftx and if any good is moving out of this is regulation should move faster to stop the next ftx. >> thank you for joining me on the show ari redbord. the picture today in the europe markets is negative after asia overnight tilted toward the red. all of the indexes are trading in negative territory. ftse 100 is down 1%. dax is down 1%
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foreign exchange and this is what the picture looks like today. you can see the pound is losing ground versus the dollar 118 is where we are right now. the euro is putting back against the dollar .90% the dollar continues to gain momentum versus the yen. we have a clean break at 140 141.70 the picture today as we head into a thanksgiving week as we head toward the end of the week, expect liquidity to dry up the picture is negative today. the dow seen opening down 120 points s&p down 20 points this after another negative week last week that saw both indices end in negative territory as well coming up on "street signs." qa qatar's world cup kicks off, but
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the attention focuses on the off the pitch action as beer sales are canceled and riot police are deployed we're live in the region coming up next.
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welcome back to the show the world cup is under way in qatar. doha has faced criticism over the treatment of foreign workers and lgbt rights. they also banned all alcohol sales in stadiums. let's get out to dan of the dan, i was reading it costs more than $200 billion of investment from the qataris to get the presence on the global stage. it hasn't been the global presence they were looking for with so much trcontroversy abou the fact qatar is the host nation talk about the ramifications and the feeling from the region right now. >> reporter: joumanna, a lot of excitement in the region, i will
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say, that is despite the fact we have seen the first fifa world cup in the arab world kicking off with a debut to forget qatar. 2-0 loss to heecuador. this has also been the most heavily criticized world cup ever we have seen qatar with accusations of sports washing and the narrative leading up to kickoff is focused on the treatment of migrant workers and stance on gay rights and alcohol and sustainability and litany of other things no country is perfect, of course at the same time, we have seen qatar building several an r rea arenas for the world cup that money goes beyond the cost of the last world cup in russia in 2018 and the last tokyo
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olympics as well a lot of money spent to ensure this event is a success. i asked james walton to explain the return on the investment for qatar and the region as well what. >> what is the economic impact 17 billion euro of tourism there were a lot of jobs created. nine out of ten jobs have gone to foreign workers it is hard to see economically how this makes sense it makes it more stark or clear that there is a soft diplomacy agenda going on for qatar in their role in the middle east. >> reporter: it is not just about the money. it is about the power of the especially for a country like qatar which is extraordinarily wealthy.
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hosting the kworld cup is a chance to unify sport and connect people from different cultures it is good for the region as well we have seen saudi arabia and the uae where i am now who recently ended the economic blockade of qatar to increase from the tourism flowing as a result we will see hotels filling up in uae and extra flights added so people can ferry back and forth from doha given the size of the country and the lack of available hotel space. we have seen a lot of interest in neighboring and nearby countries and people just curious about what the middle east has to offer in the best time of the year with temperatures cooling down. a lot of interest in seeing this part of the world for the first time for a lot of the sports fans who have never watched a
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game of football in the middle east region. the games will continue as well tonight. england facing off with iran netherlands taking on senegal and wales will play the usa. look, it is exciting on the ground you get the sense that people like to see the major sporting events in the region that is despite the extreme controversy that qatar has faced in the lead-up to the event. >> for sure. all eyes over here in the uk on the england and iran match dan, what are you supporting >> reporter: who am i supporting well, i'll go with iran, actually this is my part of the world iran, you know what? it will be interesting to see what they do why not. >> dan, thank you very much for bringing us that report. looking forward to the rest of the report for the week. let's bring in global head of sports entertainment from
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mediacom great to have you here and joining us around the desk exciting time. let's pick up on what dan was saying about the controversy surrounding this world cup and how advertisers are viewing it typically you want as many eyes as possible. this one, you are looking at hundreds of millions of eyeballs in one go. it is expensive. equally, there is lots of concerns of issues with human rights and migrant workers and lgbt how are advertisers looking at this is it an opportunity or a challenge? >> a bit of both a challenge certainly that any of the advertisers and sponsors of the tournament have seriously considered over the course of the past couple months the truth is this is the biggest sporting event on the planet the biggest audiences ever for the world cup. 5 billion people.
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people will focus mostly on the football the controversy that is rightly covered is not equally covered across the globe western democracies focus on the issues you mentioned in the middle east and other parts of the world, this is an opportunity to highlight a different part of the world that never had the world cup. >> is there a potential negative impact or a backlash on the advertisers which have chosen to go down the route of advertising at the world cup >> i don't think so. i think a lot of it is around the language you use and obviously we shouldn't be conflating the issues. we shouldn't look at supporting the tournament and being associated with football on an occasion like that as supporting qatar as a state most people who watch the
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tournament won't see it that way. of course, advertisers will be aware of this and the language they use, but generally speaking, most consumers will not hold companies accountable for the issues we discussed. >> one of the big surprise announcements toward the end of the week last week is qatar said they were banning the sales of alcohol beer in stadiums budweiser is the official sponsor of the world cup my initial reaction was this must be bad for budweiser. i thought about it and actually they are getting so much publicity out of this which is more valuable to them than the sale of beer >> i would agree with that also, anything of this nature that happens so late, you know, in the game before the tournament is due to kickoff, they will be compensated without question this is in the contract. there are clauses that protect
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them from these types of things happening. if the qatari government decides they don't want the sales of the beer and you see how budweiser reacts and they have been brilliant. they offered all of the beer to go to the winning country. there won't be any loss of income and they still get all of the branding and advertising they would have paid for >> esg has become a big theme for investing. there are supposupporters and contractors as well. how do they feel about esg and how they want to go for advertising slots? >> advertisers are going where they want to be aligned with culture. they want to be in places and speaking about things that consumers increasing -- people are increasingly caring about.
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this is moving up to the top of the agenda in terms of what they are doing and what they invest and how they want to be at the forefront of the conversation that is happening. sporting events are great to do that. >> what do you think qatar gets out of there dan said they are spending four or five times prior to any host nation $200 billion what is in it? >> $12 billion that russia spent. multiples, multiples they are looking to accelerate where they are in terms of the development and how they bring tourism business in qatar and into the region. it is an enormous amount of money. difficult to see how the return is on that particularly in the short-term clearly they see an opportunity to bring a spotlight to the country to build hotels and
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infrastructure and bridges and roads and stadiums which in the longer run over the next 5, 10, 15 years, will make them a major hub. we see that in the middle east dubai and abu dhabi and saudi arabia they see the world cup as a way to accelerate that journey >> i'm looking at your title global head of sports and culture. you were tasked to come on with the world cup. i want to ask about something else crypto spots in sports that became a big thing in the peak of the hysteria with crypt at $50,000 all of that money has disappeared. a big chunk of it has disappeared. what does that do to the space >> i think it makes people question -- anything that comes up quickly and has so much conversation about it, i think
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in the future or as we see this space as well -- i don't think it disappeared i think people are doing due diligence and looking at what is going on and asking questions. how is it that something can go from zero to $1,000 so quickly and should we take a step back where is the money coming from who are the people running the companies? we're talking about the latest collapse with ftx. the name on the miami arena. >> that's why i ask. >> you have to ask how many people around the space are asking the right questions rather than a lot of money why are people endorsing it? so many celebrities are endorsing the space. i think we have to do more >> proceed with caution. okay i'll leave it there. mischa, thank you. turning back to a story we
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started the show off with. this is to do with china officials have announced beijing is tightening the test requirements for travelers entering the city after 316 local cases. this comes after the country reports an uptick in cases and the first covid death in six months this is aovernight beijing is tightening the rules. a couple of districts are within lockdown in beijing. a turn around from the sentiment we had that was growing last week on hopes that china would move toward measures to open the economy. not so much the case if you look at the price action the last 24 hours and latest announcement coming from beijing. this is having knock-on effects. european markets are opening in negative territory we are recovering some of the losses we had earlier on
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ftse 100 is only down 1% cac is down as well 1% we are, of course, getting into a holiday week quick look at u.s. futures picture is negative there. negative last week and negative handover from asia one stock we are focused on and i'm sure my colleagues in the u.s. will talk about this story. disney and the return of bob iger after bob chapek departed that stock opening up 8%. i'm joumanna bercetche that is it for "street signs." "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global h5eadquarters. here is your top "five@5." breaking overnight disney ousting bob chapek as ceo and bob wiiger takes the spot of the. and china sparking fears of restrictions and lockdowns with covid deaths. aftx exposing the billions t

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