i was thinking about something that joe said earlier about, sort of unsung hero, bristol-myers, another unsung hero they can perform in down markets. >> thanks, everybody we'll see you in a few hours in "overtime. ". happy monday i'm brian, in for kellie once again. the news never takes a day off there's a lot to talk about today, including the stunning return of bob iger to run disney can he do what bob chapek apparently couldn't? one top economist says ig not most the the noise and china's zero policy for covid not working. will they ever change a policy that's keeping people nearly

locked up and their economy nearly locked down before we get to all of that,dom, what are you looking ago, my man, besides your 49ers playing tonight in mexico city. >> where it's forecast that 89% listen 49ers fans. red on the screen today, but just marginally so fractional losses so far about 0.2% to give you -- i'll call it up 118 points or thereabouts, the lows down about 186. there's the trading ranges so far. drifting between marginal ---ant gains and losses s&p 500 still below 4,000. half of 1% losses there. 1.25 losses for the nasdaq,

hovering right before the 11,000 market one of the stories that was affecting a lot of markets today was something that happened wrap to china and the slowdown. that was having a negative effect on oil. that was exacerbated by opec plus, they might look to increase production. that was quickly refuted by officials in saudi arabia. nonetheless, wti crew down, below $80. $79.50 i'm throwing a year-to-date chart up there we were just a stone's throw away from the lowest levels all year of 2022, so keep an eye on the oil markets, on those china headlines. speaking of, you see what's happening here with some of the big names in china in technology , those shares down anywhere from 2% to 6.5% on some of the

china fears. that's having an effect. the las vegas sands down 4%, 3% losses for wynn, so keep an eye on all things macro, and their effects on the micro, i'll send things back over to you. we'll talk more about that opec story later. 3resh9 it,dom. . fed presidents spoke 16 times last week and the first fed-speak of the day today steve liesman has those. i will just not cut you a break. steve. >> no, hard but interesting work here interesting speech by mary daly, who says the fed has more work to do, but she points to a san francisco paper that shows the level of tightening in the market is higher than portrayed in the current fed funds rate. daly says that research shows

that markets are acting like the funds rate is around 6%, compared to the 3% 75 to 4%, which is the current rate. he goes on to say the fed needs to be mindful of the impacts and the current real rate or rate that's felt by the market, as it moves toward this sufficiently restrictive stance, including the cumulative typingening so far, and the lalgs and other tightening effects she says the fed rate does not capture of federation of other tools, including the balance sheet runoff, which is quite substantial. the fed is entering, she says, a more different period of tight new england. adjusting too much could lead to a downturn he warns the fed not to overlook

the lags, and she says those are at least several quarters. early signs, she says, she sees of labor cooling, and the fed needs to go far enough to get the fed done, but be mindful not to overdo is, so prospectively dovish, i would say, this why the 2459 market is feeling and acting like a funds rate brian? >> you know, we talk about politics, and apparently everybody in america is either on the red team or blue team you're not allowed to be in the middle i'm being sarcastic. but it's -- there are plenty of people in the middle, and some of these fed heads, it's not like we can put them into a singular box, is it? >> no, and it's especially true right now. everybody is on board with raising rates. everybody is on board with

getting with fighting inflation, making that the primary battle the interesting question becomes, these comments are not really relevant. i think they're relevant for next year, where a fed official would say, you know what we need to stop earlier, because i'm more worried about the lags and the cumulative tightening, and this idea of a funds rate that's felt at 6:00r 6%. these are all, as i said, prospective ideas. right now, i think everybody's in the foxhole and everything is a hawk, so to speak, but several months from now, i think some of these differences that are out there in their commentary will matter a lot more. >> steve, thank you very much. i appreciate that nuanced view we're all just not in one box or the other. our next zest sis any hopes of a pivot may be misplaced, because the fed will likely stake on the

brakes longer than the market things joining us is brian van cronkite the federal reserved jacked up rates, and in 199 a, the dow rose 33% rate hikes and market gains are not always mutually exclusive, are they >> definitely not. i think the stocks can work from here, but you want to focus more on -- the fed niece to say credible, as they begins to rise again, it willonly exacerbate the issue. when employment cools, they'll have comments that i think inflation will slow, and the cyclical demand may reassert itself >> so let's talk about some of

the individual names you brought forward. those are mid cap names, they don't get a lot of attention i mean this with love, it may be one of the more boring companies in the world that's how they like it. they make baking soda, toothpaste, i think, church & dwight. they don't do tv interviews, don't really publicize that may by one of the reasons you like them. i like them for a lot of reasons, but the biggest reasons is they have a lot of cash flow. and they use that balance sheet very well to make acquisitions today, the company's stock price is reflecting changs of two -- in and out the products you mentioned, but the discretionary products we're seeing a slowdown in demand. the focus on that has moved

everybody lower on the stocks, but they'll make more acquisitions i would like to see them investigate to selling some -- and higher, the market's typical view on two products -- and longer term on the rest 6 the business today. >> another name we were threw up there, and that is volken materials. we had a guest on last week who also liked it. vulcan is a company that helps make roads. >> it's a fantastic business, and even better industry the industry is showing pricing power for the last five decades, which overwhelms the cost increases were seeing, but more it's a lot secular

you have on-shoring that is taking place, the deed mand drivers here are very strong sew i like the setup here, and importantly, again, the company is active with their balance sheet. they're making acquisitions, and bringing more cash onto the balance sheet to make it more. bryant van chronkhite, thank you very much. have a good thanksgiving. >> thank you, to you always. to the other biggs story of the day, disney shares are higher bon 5.5%, after the company announced bob iger would return, shocking everybody, replacing bob chapek the stock is down 20% since chapek took over why did this have to happen now? what is iger going to do differently?

and what will happen down the road the next time iger retires. we have julia boorstin and alex sherman. julia, are tied into disney like no other did this one shock even you? >> it surprised me, and then it didn't i did go back and check the timestamp on when the press release arrived to make sure it wasn't a couple years old, because bob iger has extended his tenure before. the magnitude of the loss in the streaming division was unlarger than anticipated, and also concerns that the way that chapek was handling cutback, perhaps a hiring fry, that that wasn't going overwell with the staff.

i think they went bag to iger. >> apparently there was no bench, because they didn't bring up anybody from the outside. they went back to the former guy, who, by the way said the old guy was the right guy. iger endorsed chapek >> irony is, while bob iger is rightfully celebrated as a great ceo, his one weakness appears to be succession plans. that's k35ik9ly what disney has gone back to igerd to, at least superficially, for somebody to take over this company, after he moves on, which apparently will be in two years. now, bob iger's past resume

indicates that just because he signs a contract for two years, that doesn't necessarily mean his tenure will be two years he is 70 years old, but you would have to wonder, even if superficially we're talking about him coming up with succession planning, maybe he doesn't decide to hang around even longer. >> julie, he's obviously done so much for disney, so going back to the game plan they thought worked, but what's his going to do differently i don't know if bob iger can be gandalf, what kind of wizardry he would have here. >> bob chapek restructured the company to divide up the content creation and the content distribution he put those into two different divisions, and some tell me those two divisions were at odds again each other, and bob iger,

i understand, hughes criticized that formula in the past, and that a lot of the creative folks have criticized that approach as well so i think it's possible that bob iger will in short order restructure that restructuring that bob cheapek did i do think we can expect in re-evil race of what content goes on what platform. ing very careful evil investigation on how much they should be spending on that content maybe it's monday and i'm grumpy you know 9 commute i did. at least there's more to this story, it feels like, right? parent they had a falling out. it contend of winter to war.

chapek has been criticized for his handling of the florida "don't say gay" law. i'm going to ask you to editorialize, which was a case of chapek is out, bob iger, will you come back? or is bob iger proactive in helping oust his former friend >> it depends on what you mean by proactive i think bog iger has not been a fan of things you mentioned, and julia for that matter. there have been a series of things that i believe bob iger has not agreed with. that said, do i think he was lobbying behind is the scenes to get this job no, i don't think that there were some senior leadership at disney that expressed their concerns with bob chapek to the board, saying

basically a vote of no confidence in him, and i think the board took a hard look at disney, as julia said, they saw streaming losses his ballooned, that disney only had a billion dollars of free cash flow from the past 12 months it's on the hook now to spend at least $9 billion to comcast to buy a 33% stake in hulu at the beginning of 2024, at the same time that investors have turned on this narrative of streaming growth at all costs. so, maybe the board set, you know what? we need a new leader, because times have changed again. >> julie, bob chapek is going to be okay. $23 million out the door >> i'm not worried about him financially. the question is does he have

another role chapek's background is in the parks business, but certainly from what i understand, this was a big splice for him he knee things were tough, but i don't think that i don't weeks ago, he would have expected this. >> i'm not sure anybody did. bob iger is sitting on his -- and julia boorstin, alex sh sherman, great stuff thank you. on deck, the holiday travel season is about to kick off. your next guest says there are no signs of a slowdown phil lebeau will shows signs and another ceo, this one with stifel, his take on the fed rates, even crypto, following the fall of ftx. oil, by the way, about to turn positive we're back right after this.

welcome back are you flying for the holidays? travel season is in full swing our next guest, and phil lebeau are here phil, take it away. >> barry biffle joining us from frontier airlines.

that's the main question -- how soon will the travel experience he this year has not been a great one. will it be a smooth thanksgiving for people who are flying? >> i think it will be a about usee thanksgiving. everyone will be full and everyone needs to be sure to pack some patience, make sure you show up early for the flights. i think the staffing challenges are behind us, i think >> you mentioned the staffing challenges, have you been able to nonmeet -- but more judicious in terms of the scheduling, in terms of where you were, maybe, six months ago >> we've been able to manage our staffs in fact, we had one of the best summers we've had from a completion factor, but i think the broader industry isible to keep up now.

>> barry, just last week you guys were fined by the department of transportation more than $2 million, and told to pay back more than $220 million in refunds earp slow to repay during the pandemic. looking back, would you have done it differently in terms of how you handled refunds during the pandemic >> i think there was an error made it's unfortunate, and we regret that it happened, but we have made those refunds a long time ago. that's largely in the past now >> you're expanding your fleet, putting your sights on greater expanse. where do you see the greatest growth right now for frontier. is it primarily in the western u.s. where do you see when you look at where you think it should be a year or two from now where is the expansion >> we're seeing a huge amount of domestic recovery. obviously there's been a step function change in demand,

especially leisure demand from the work-from-home phenomenon. for example, we have literally almost a that is right of our customers traveling five times or more a year, that's double from what it was in 2019 we're seeing an exposure of leisure demand everywhere in the u.s., but also the international and we continue to focus on growing there. we just announced a base in dallas/fort worth, and open-air base in phoenix. so we're growing in the southwest united states, but we'll continue to grow in the international as well. >> barry, you mentioned your passengers are flying, what, five or more, and this weekend you offered the go wild, all you can fly passes, where people pay, whether it was $599 over the weekend, now it's $799 they can fly as much as them, with some restrictions in the course of the year a lot of people say it sounds good on paper, but in reality there aren't many seats on very

many flights what kind of demand did you see for the go wild passes >> first of all, we have over 5 million seats that have gone empty. we would expect a similar number the next year. they can confirm a day out, and if you look at the q3, we had over 30 seats available on every flight on average in the last day before departure there's a lot of availability, and we've seen huge demand for that so i think it's a win/win for them, as well as us. we'll be able to fill the empty seats, allowing them to travel anytime they want. >> this week, barry, real quick, expecting big crowds >> yes, we expect to be full over the holidays, and expect that to continue through the holiday season over christmas as well if you haven't booked a ticket, you probably better do it for christmas. >> barry biffle, joining us

today. thank you for joining us today, brian where it's quiet at o'hare, which is exactly what you want it to be during thanksgiving week. good westerly nation wrid. hopefully a smooth week for traveling. >> it's amazing to see it like that last time, honestly i couldn't even walk it was that crowded. i expect it will ramp up considerably from the bucolic and calm visage behind you. >> reporter: it will >> phil lebeau, thank you very much. coming up, has any hope for a dovish fed pivot gone the way of the dodo? dave zerbos has more

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murder and hate crime charges have been filed against the suspect in the colorado springs gay nightclub shooting a judge sealed the arrest want after prosecutors argued the release could jeopardizes the investigation. victims' names and details were expected to be announced at a news conference at 5x p.m. eastern time tonight. the death toll has risen to at least 162 people frommen earthquake in indonesian

at least 13,000 people suffered heavy damage to their homes. and in washington, president biden offering the annual pardon to two turkeys ahead much thanksgiving chocolate and chip wear nearly 50 pounds. the tradition was started by president truman the tradition is now, 75, brian, years old. >> as a hokie, i always have trouble with this whole concept, for good reason. >> i do indeed gobblers still ahead, call this an epic opec snafu, a big story opec setting oil lower this morning, but saudis said it was all wrong, clearing up the crude confusion.

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welcome back check out the dramatic move in oil today. that's just today. if you're on the radio, picture a big "u" that went down and

back up. the story raised a lot of eyebrows, because it would be a complete reversal from a monthable, send the oil prices tanking, but about an hour ago, the saudis came out and categorically denied any increase of discussion on the table, even going so far to say a further cut might still be discussed, and all theirs losses jointing us to make sense of it all and center intelligence. there are great reporters. i don't want to speculate into a story that i didn't write

myselves, but basically we know the head of the opec meetings, informal discussion, usually takes place two, three days ahead of the conference. so it's a bit strange to hear from any talks, and i mean, as you mentioned, categorically, denies that saudi arabia says discussion an increase the market listens to him. this is an individual who has upholded hi reliability in the market as you we can see from the current market environment, price says are going down because of demand concerns this is justification for opec plus for making the cuts that were criticized.

>> you do wonder, though, opec and many of its members, you know, saudi arabia and the biggest players, there's other important players as well. it is possible that somebody in opec wants to raise production and flow to the story as well. i'm not going to ask you to speculate on the report, but would there be a country inside opec that may wish for a production increase at this time >> sure, but this is something that needs to be discussed at the meeting. as you know very well, brian, opec plus needs to reach a unanimous agreement, so these ideas would be brought forward during the meeting again, i would say it's really early to have any kind of informal significant talks ahead. we just really have to wait and see, and just going back, again,

to his words, this is an individual who thinking about things before saying them. when he mentioned there's even a hinting of a further -- there might be a need for a further cut, depending on market conditions, of course, they comments are very well thought out. we all know 2500 times the prince thinking 25 times before sayingening anything, so we need to pay attention to the comments issued today >> that's the key part, the official statement a rare move for the saudis to put in the national press distribution something about this, but for them that is how big these view this. the fact they were says they can't still reduce quotas, they're directionally leading us in that way. what instrument us about the

story is the price of oil had been dumbing down. they were criticized wildly for cutting outfuture quotas, but one could imagine if they hadn't, the price could be around $60. >> exactly. >> our drivers would love that, but i'm not sure that opec would love that. >> and putting things into context, brian, look at the environment we're facing china is still in lockdowns, uncertainly when they will lift the lockdowns. the eu sanctions are coming up, and no one understands how that affects russia's production or exports. and you also have the u.s. saying more or additional str releases are on the table. there might be a further announcement to add to the 180 million. so there's a lot of uncertainty out there.

opec and especially saudi arabia, is cautious in their approach i don't expect them to start easing the cuts at a time whether you have a lot of question marks on the demand and the supply side. >> let's be clear, the opec meeting is actually sunday, december 4th, you'll probably be there. i'll be there. december 5th, that monday, that's when the eu price cap and sanctioning go into effect the russians were also on the tape today saying they will sell no oil to any country that imposes a price cap. if that doesn't work, they may cut production the point is there was a wild day today, and there's a lot that could happen in the next two, three weeks, is there not >> of course again, we need to monitor very closely a few days ahead of the opec meetings to understand if

there's any informal discussions taking place yeah, it's just too early to say. i will tell you, quite frankly, there's no specific proposal out there that's being discussed >> if you say it, i believe it amena bakr, i'll see you in vienna a lot of jawbones. on deck, let's switch gears. just how easy could it be to regulate crypto, and maybe better protect your money or protect it at all. r next guest says it might not be as hard as you may think. stick around ♪♪ we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place

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a 50-year-old rule could be part of the solution. i remember, i was doing a panel on crypto regulation in 2019, so, what, three years ago, ron with an s.e.c. chair it was kind of like it was this mystery world that we would never get figuredout you think there's a rule that already exists that almost could be plug-and-play into crypto. >> it's the customer protection rule, brian. it's been in place since 1970. what it simply says -- first, i want to say there's a lot of questions about how to regulate and many facets you can debate the one thing you should not debate is whether or not customers should be assured that their funds are not commingled, and that their assets are segregated that's called the customer protection rule. it's been in place since the 1970s, and to me, it's very

simple congress -- if the s.e.c. doesn't think they have the authority, congress should say, yes, s.e.c., you do have the authority. if you want to limit it, simply limit it, that they enforce the customer protection rule frankly, i could imagine anyone disagrees with that. >> there's got to be some reason it hasn't been done. nothing is as simple as you made it, but i get your point of holding -- if it's that easy, ron, why hasn't somebody thought of it or done it >> well, first of all, it's because i think the s.e.c. doesn't feel they have jurisdiction over the crypto firms, and they need to be told that they do congress can do that very quickly. in my opinion it shouldn't take that long.

once you have that, i believe the s.e.c. would say -- and the rule is in place 15-3-1, and 3.3. you can pull them up and read them they simply say that you cannot coming the customer funds. can you not do what ftx did. in fact, i would think most crypto participants would come on your show, and you should ask them, do you support whether the crypto industry should be subject to the customer protection rule. if they say they don't know, they don't know what they're doing. if they say no, you should get out of that company. if they say yes, which i'm certain all of them would, congress neither to give the s.e.c. authority, the s.e.c. needs to enforce those rules, and a lot of things that my clients are concerned about. they would at least know that

the customer protection rule and their deposits or assets are safe in u.s. regulation. >> well, you know, it's funny, we apparently can't even decide as a nation what the heck crypto is i don't like to call it a cryptocurrency, but it's a commodity-ish in my view, certainly not a currency so you have the department of ago consult involved because it's a commodity in fact some of the millions that ftx was spendic lobbying was going to people on the department of agriculture committee, is it not what do you think it is? >> i don't care what it is i don't care if it's a tulip or crypto, i don't care if it's a stock. what you do care about and what i think is what makes the u.s. markets as strong as they are, no matter what it is, if you take customer funds, you cannot use those customer funds in your

business that rule has been on the books for 50 years why it does not apply to crypto is something we need to fix. it needs to be a discussion. you guys, i think should be ask markets participants why they don't agree with it. if the industry would say we agree that we should protect our clients' funds -- again, i can't imagine them saying they wouldn't -- then it's upon congress to give the s.e.c. the authority. that needs to be done yesterday, not next year. >> because i have the s.e.c., the cft, the department of agriculture, because it's considered a commodity -- this is just baffling, like the railroad commission overseeing space travel ron, we appreciate your view have a great thanksgiving. >> brian, just one thing there's a fire going on in confidence in crypto, october? we shouldn't be deciding which fire department needs to go. let's just get on it, get the

customer protection rule in place, all right appreciate it. >> well said ron, have a great thanks giving. just common sense. >> thank you. a man i'm going to call the shaman of central banks, david zerbos, why jerome powell may have to play scrooge this christmas. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

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well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.

all right. markets bracing for another week of fed speeches. the next guest is only focused on jay powell, that will push b because his top priority is fighting inflation >> joining us now is chief market strategist at jeffries. >> cool, brian i don't think i've been called a -- >> if he calls you that in the hallways, we'll know it sticks are we not listening to all the 16 speeches last week and just one? what are we doing? >> i mean, i think you can listen to a few of them. but you really -- at the end of the day, the voice of the committee is jay and it's always been the chair and there's been a few around our various chairs of the past that have been important. but i think, you know, the choices of a few presidents here and there who are on fringes are

really not the relative story. brian, i don't know if you saw that, but there is a speech coming up november 30th. just after thanksgiving. it was announced that jay is going to speak at the brookings institute for an hour or two and that wasn't on the agenda. that's right before the blackout period clearly, he has something to say. we'll learn a lot more just after thanksgiving >> that is -- you said november 30th >> i believe so. i saw it late last week. it's that week that week. but it was just announced. it wasn't a pre -- a prestructure like jackson hole speech. >> the voice of god, my executive director, said, yes, that is direct november 30th at 1:30. what does that tell you if powell is just -- oh, yeah, you free that day? sure why -- that's not how it works >> look, brian i think jay's message has been pretty steadfast i don't think he's deviated even

in the beginning of the year he was trying to tell you, look, i'm going to go after this inflation got worse. he went after it harder. i think his credibility sits at a high, high level a lot of people want to talk about it being lost. the dollar is strong the curve is inverted. gold can't get out of its own way. the break-even inflations measures like five-year, five-year, those are all range bound. so, you know, this is mission accomplished on anchoring inflation expectations and i think it's not -- he's going to declare victory, he's going to say, i need to keep making sure -- or what does he say? keeping at it, which is the title of paul volcker's memoirs. i think he's going to keep at it i can't except that jay is going to be a softy going into christmas. we're going to slow down we're not going 75s every meeting for forever. we're going to have a period where we get to watch the lags come and do what it's supposed

to go. slow things down. >> that's it and it's a really fascinating that powell added that speech on november 30th. 1:30 this show is from 1:00 to 2:00 we might have some headlines on this program david, appreciate it >> yeah. >> i love it great stuff. david always brings it in a different way. very smart there you go november 30th, folks circle it on your calendar china announced limiting easing of its strict covid zero liesutowpoci b n cases are popping again. eunice yoon will tell you about it coming up

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the most populated neighborhood. >> yeah, that's right. the capital has now reported three deaths in -- you know, this is the -- for the first time in six months and there are now thousands of cases here just in the past couple of days and that is really raising concerns that we could see a more chaotic enforcement of china's very conflicting policies so i'm currently in the largest district of beijing. it's in an effective lockdown and it has been for the past few days the situation is even worse in guangzhaou and put their biggest district in a five-day lockdown and the rest of the city is effectively in -- what authorities have described as silent mode. that's a semipartial shutdown.

this call comes about a week after the leadership said it's going to start to ease the very stringent zero covid policy for investors probably should know when the china say they're reopening, it isn't a reopening. that's not what we're seeing so far in the way that the rest of the world would understand it. it's more of a reopening with chinese characteristics. that means what we're seeing is some of the more egregious pressures kind of mitigated but here on the ground, there isn't really any discernible change from what we're seeing if anything, it feels stricter and kind of worse and more confused because local officials are trying to seem as though they're adhering to the reopening rules but really are sticking to that zero covid goal. >> people who can see you on the screen now, it's nighttime, it's later. people on the radio, i want to

change the situation and explain why you are wearing a mask outside at night by yourself because you will get harassed. there are people who will bother you even if you're a hundred yards from the nearest purpose that's why and i think that goes to the story, what is it like living and working in these constantly changing environments? it's got to be just mind-blowingly frustrating. >> reporter: it is frustrating and, actually, it feels very much like back in may when beijing was starting to feel as though it was going to go into a total lockdown so people then were starting to stockpile and were very, very nervous. the big difference is that all of the messaging that we're getting is more unofficial again, because beijing doesn't want to look as though they are making these big announcements about a reopening or a massive clamp down what we're hearing is, like, companies are saying, oh,

they're getting unofficial orders that they have to go into lockdown, or buildings are going into quarantine. that makes it much, much more uncertain and confusing. >> our thoughts are with you and everybody else over there, by the way. thank you very much. folks, that's it for us on "the exchange. we'll see you tomorrow "power lunch" starts right now thank you very much. and welcome to power lunch here is what is ahead. disney, the sequel the stock takes off after the surprise ouster of ceo bob chapek and the return of bob iger. >> but his to-do list is long if he's going to regain the confidence of stakeholders, employees and holiday. and holiday cheer? not all retailers are going to experience it. if former ceo of macy's is here with a look at where