up about 3% to 309 it was under 175 a year ago. this is interesting, best buy is the best performing stock in the s&p 500 today. dollar tree, the worst go figure. all ahead of black friday on friday that does it for us on "the exchange." "power lunch" starts right now great to be with you all today. nice to have your company. here's what's ahead. tesla tanks. the stock cut in half this year, trading below the median price target of wall street analysts what do the technicals say we'll look at the charts to determine the stock's next move. plus, getting defensive. money has been rotating into biotech. gilead up 20% over the last month. anagen, 13%. are investors hiding in biotech as the threat of a recession looms? we'll explore that one later this hour.

tyler, good to see you good to see you, everybody stocks higher this afternoon, brushing off the covid concerns out of china the dow trading near session highs, nearly up 1%. s&p 500 up a percent on 40 points nasdaq composite up nearly 100 points the best performing s&p stock is best buy it hiked its outlook and beat earnings estimates right now, up 11%. the worst performing, look at dollar tree, down almost 9%. it issued a disappointing outlook. crude trading back above $80 a barrel this afternoon. it's up a percent on the day after saudi arabia said opec plus was sticking with its output cuts. tyler. >> there goes oil. as brian pointed out, oil stocks moving, as well. is wall street simply out of touch? the massive tech sell-off sent many stocks sinking well below the street's ever-bullish estimates.

crowdstrike's average price target on the street is 71% above its current price level. zoominfo's is 73% above. tesla, 77% below its target. warner brothers discovery also priced below its target price on the street look at mongodb, the platform for developers average price target of $311 a share. that's 111% above its youcurren value. how about that, mong omongodb. remember the song? brian would know let's bring in jessica of options play good to have you here. are the stocks priced right, or is wall street just wrong? >> such an interesting question. so to add a layer to that, tyler, i lover to look at next year's estimates of earnings per share versus revenue growth and earnings per share growth and pe

ratios to give an indication if it is overvaluation or what the hype is. pulling from the list, i found a couple where there was one that was undervalued and the technicals matched up. it is interesting, if you have a lot of analysts with that type of forecast and with that theme of automation and software and services, perhaps there's more to that story in addition to >> why don't we start by having you walk us through what you see in tesla, its chart action and the fact that it is trading so far below what wall street thinks its price should be talk us through it. >> yeah. tesla i found very, very interesting. if you're looking at its current support zone, 170/180, that was created all the way back to late last year. that support zone was extremely important to get tesla above its 200 daily moving average, which is a bearish signal. now, since we're testing that, and i want to say hanging on by a thread is what i'm going to

call that, tyler, we're below that 200 daily moving average. if this zone is not supported, then i would expect tesla to move lower >> what about marvel data infrastructure, semiconductor, things like that. what are you seeing about the price target and where its actual price is? >> so marvel was the good one i found off the list they are trading at 15 times next year's earnings they expect 20% aps growth and 15% revenue growth s&p did an average of 17 times earnings, so that is really good from a valuation perspective from a technical perspective, i see where marvell fell right below its 200 weekly moving average. that is strength and, on the surface, it is a bearish signal. however, bullish divergence is forming. we look at mar jvell in comparin to its sector, its shows an

upwards trend. in this environment, we have to layer on how securities are performing relative to their sector that see if there is positive momentum. this was my favorite one from the list if you will. >> i want to get to crowdstrike, but i want to go back to tesla what you said was really interesting there. if tesla's price can't hold the level where it is today and continues to lose relative to its 200 day moving average, it's look out below i'm going to ask a question that isn't technical, it is more fundamental or personal, and that is, is elon musk helping or hurting tesla right now? >> so i wouldn't bet against elon musk. he is a smart mind those people have ways to drive innovation he had to raise a lot of capital to get twitter, which means he had to sell a lot of shares, which implemented quite a lot of supply into the marketplace. those support levels are defined by an area of supply or demand

if you have an influx of supply, you head down to that area of support where we are so the influx really, i think elon musk infiltrated the supply of the shares which really caused it to go down >> that's interesting. >> most likely supported. >> that's really interesting let's move on. talk us, i've eaten up time, but talk about crowdstrike anyway, just for fun. >> sure. crowdstrike, i think, is interesting. i read the analyst reports on this one, and they seem like they'll be a leader in their industry on the surface, well below its 200 weekly moving average, it looks like it is not doing very well testing its lowest of lows support levels but this is where a relative basis chart is extremely important. it is forming consolidation, which is a great sign. so that is, overall, within its sector, it is primed for the bullish momentum perhaps that's where those overhyped valuations are coming from >> jessica, thank you very much. have a great thanksgiving.

options play now to retail. the s&p retail index is down about 30% so far this year black friday widely expected to be challenging, but some retailers are set to come out ahead. let's bring in kevin monn, president and chief investment officer. good to see you. we had bearers of good news. best buy with a beat american eagle with a beat abercrombie and fitch with a beat their shares are responding as though santa is going to deliver more gift ls what are they doing right? >> well, let's start with retail sales. as we know, contessa, retail sales grew by 1.3% in october, exceeding estimates. retailers across the board in terms of q3 earnings have done better than many anticipated however, it appears as though the consumers now are putting more in their credit cards and dipping more into their personal savings to help keep up with these inflated prices.

just consider these two stats. in the third quarter, the total amount of credit card debt rose by 15% versus the third quarter of last year that's the fastest rate of annual growth over 20 years. in addition, the personal savings rate in our country has dipped to 3.7% the lowest its been since 2008 roughly half of what it was prior to the start of the pandemic so the question remains, beyond this holiday shopping season, which i do believe will be relatively good for retailers, how much longer can consumers continue to spend? >> how much of that goodness for retailers is that prices are higher, and so their gross sales are going to be greater, even though they may actually -- buyers, shoppers may buy less but spend more >> it's a great question but if you look to some of the recent earnings reports, tyler, you saw that walmart beat on their top line and their bottom

line lowe's beat on their top and bottom line. lowe's, which is a retailer as we know of home shopping supplies, beat for the 14th consecutive quarter. that is an area that is prime for opportunity, given that mortgage rates are now above 7% and americans are less likely to buy or sell new homes, and probably more likely to fix up their existing homes given the inflated wholesale prices. it really then becomes a question of what consumers are looking for this holiday shopping season. it appears as though they want value and convenience. where better to turn for value and convenience than retailers such as walmart and amazon >> okay. who else you've said walmart now. a lot of times they get associated with value a lot. amazon, of course. is there any other retailer that you think really could have some steam through the holiday season and into the beginning of 2023 >> good question, contessa any retailer that has an online

footprint positive complement their in-store sales, that fits into the convenience aspect of what consumers are looking for that stave off these inflated prices and also shop from the convenience on their home. target has been expanding their online footprint, but they have so many internal inventory management issues, i think it is going to be difficult for them to come out on top, even after this robust holiday shopping season walmart has been very efficient in expanding their online footprint. i really do believe that amazon is going to be the primary benefactor of this holiday shopping season. they certainly need it after how far their stock has pulled back thus far this year. >> kevin, i'm curious how much you're factoring in what's known in the retail industry as shrink, which is shoplifting we've heard from the national retail federation saying, it's not just casual shoplifting like teenagers going in and snatching something, but organized crime is behind it i'm seeing estimates here that it is costing retailers nearly

$100 billion a year. does that factor into your outlook? >> it absolutely does. that's why we're looking at those retailers that, again, have the online presence shoplifting continues to increase, and the amount of items that are getting stolen continue to increase, especially in the total dollar amount of the items that are being taken look for those retailers that have that online footprint look for those retailers that are able to provide good value also, look at the inventory levels of these different retailers. we learned from target last week that, in fact, going forward, they're going to look to focus less on consumer discretionary items and more on consumer staples items, fearing the recession is going to get worse in the months ahead in 2023. i think it is a question of which retailers and also how much of an online footprint they do have, contessa. >> kevin, we are thankful for your perspective and expertise thank you for joining us. >> happy thanksgiving. >> you, too. coming up, the three cs.

china's covid cases, crypto's collapse, and chip over capacity a lot of cs in there a breakdown of the headlines in today's power rundown. plus, the biotech bounce, the sector outperforming the s&p over the past two months is it recession proof? should you follow the money? as we head to break, shares of jack in the box the stock lower on a down beat outlook, citing inflation's impact on margins. keep it right here jack in the box.

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big stories impacting the markets today. they all start with the letter "c." china, crypto and chips. let's begin with eunice in beijing, where public places are locking down once again. >> reporter: thanks so much, tyler. beijing is a near ghost town the capitol shut parks and malls, urging residents to stay at home. residents will have to show a negative 48-hour covid test to enter public places. the city has already been discouraging people from coming into the capital by increasing

its testing requirements tonight, shanghai announced that it is following suit, saying that it is going to require daily covid testing for four days for inbound travelers now, the total case count of new cases for the country has reached nearly 29,000. global context, that's tiny, but it's what authorities here have described as grim. around beijing, cities such as tianjin have been ramping up mass testing guangzhou has tighter lockdowns for more districts chongqing has been urging residents to abide by stricter stay at home orders and not to travel out of the city now, it's estimated localities accounting for about 20% of ch china's total gdp are now under lockdown or restriction.

t wr. >> you make a key point. 29,000 cases on a population of 1 billion is really, you know, a rounding error, i mean, if you have the illness, it's not a rou rounding error you know what i'm saying. >> reporter: absolutely. >> i have to think that chinese consumers and the stocks that benefit from their spending are really suffering here. >> reporter: they're definitely suffering. mainly because of all the uncertainty that these lockdowns, as well as the overall policies and the confusion over the policies, creates. the leadership on a very high level appears to be wanting the local authorities now to be much more targeted and specific in their measures but the challenge they've been facing is really translating this on the ground the local officials are still very much innocentivized to keep cases near zero. in fact, state media in their

explanation this week about the reopening rules, have been running a series, but they keep describing zero covid as a magic weapon as long as zero covid is still the standard, and the medprimar method the authorities use to try to reach the goal is lockdowns, quarantines and shutdowns, as long as those two things are in place, it's really difficult to see how economic activity or consumption gets back to normal ty >> thank you very much, eunice yoon appreciate you staying up for us tonight. next up, wilmington, delaware, as bankruptcy proceedings begin for ftx. the price of bitcoin falls to 16,000 ay a bring us up to speed, oo eamon.

>> reporter: the mood from the attorneys emerging from the hearing room today is this could take years this can be a long process up to 1 million customers involved at ftx the attorneys say the company is engaging with a cybersecurity firm which they won't name for security purposes. f there are assets that are missing here the ftx attorney saying the previous administration describing it as the emperor had no clothes running ftx. >> a judge ruled in a dispute we had during the course of this hearing, the company argued the customer names here should remain private that is, people who bought crypto using this exchange did it with the expectation they should be private. that customer list represents a substantial asset if it has private to ftx, that it could sell in the future to make money

for the people they owe money to at this point. the judge decided, even though the trustee argued the fact there needs to be transparency into who these creditors are one interesting question in all of this is, who are these customers at ftx one possibility that is out there is that you have a lot of customers here who could be chinese nationals. there's a law in china which says you're not allowed to participate in the cryptocurrency market. those customers hypothetical if there are chinese customers, they could be in trouble with chinese authorities if their names are revealed as part of this process for now, for a variety of reasons, the judge here, guys, saying he is going to keep the names private on at least an interim basis. that fight expected to continue. this overall bankruptcy expected to go on for years now. >> i mean, there's so much to unpack there like, does the u.s. court have any reason to consider whether chinese nationals who are

breaking the law should keep their names out of the press two, if you had an expectation of privacy and the company is in trouble legally, does that really matter? should it be kept private just so, potentially, you can recoup money because your name is sold and, therefore, made public? i don't know there's so much there. >> reporter: it is a great question, contessa. >> did you see any customers of ftx in court was there any sort of, like, outcry or public interest in this hearing >> reporter: there were a lot of lawyers, not members of the general public there were lawyers in the court. several of them spoke in the hearing who were representing various, what they call ad hoc groups of customers. some of the ad hoc groups really ad hoc, assembled over the last 48 hours or so there are a lot of customers out there who are hiring attorneys, banding together and trying to fight for their assets here. the attorneys are representing their interest and were here in

the court, as well the two attorneys who spoke in the proceeding representing customers said they do want those customer names to remain private for now. they sided with ftx here against the u.s. trustee judge sided with them. the names we won't get access to soon, but that could change. the judge said he recognizes that there is a push and pull here between privacy and the value of transparency, which is always the case in bankruptcy courts. >> all right eamon javers, we appreciate it now, chip companies which have gone from shortage to surplus and are beginning to assess the financial fallout christina has that story from the nasdaq >> good morning. inventory increased again over the last quarter, leaving chip makers with a dilemma. stockpile, kuts prices to sell fast, or do they throw in the towel and right off the excess inventory? on today's earning call, analog devices opted for higher inventory levels to deal with their own backlog, aka,

stockpile. other companies opted for a write down because they are unable to utilize the supply they committed to. take, for example, corvo $110 million charge against their commitment because they simply didn't need the chip products anymore other firms are stuck with large purchase commitments due in the next 12 months or so qualcomm owes $13 billion just in the next 12 months. that accounts for roughly 70% of the cost of goods sold see other names on your screen right now. nvidia, a.m. d, marvell, all having commitments due in the next year. what drove this oversupply of inve inventory? companies overordered during the pandemic to guard against any sup ply shocks now, we're seeing demand weaken, and the consumer end markets, all while manufacturers are making smaller and better chips. these levels, too, i've been talking about done account for the major push across countries, around the globe, to localized

supply chains. think the chips act. that could mean even more supply in the next five to ten years. analysts right now seem to agree on the street that levels should improve by the second half of next year. >> all right so what about investors who are worried about high inventory levels and potewrite downs that could cost companies millions? >> i'll take wells fargo for example. they suggested to stick to software and cadence design systems as well as synopsis. synopsis performance, it is outperforming the s&p 500 year-to-date, down only 10%. they're also bullish on names with smaller purchase commitments and larger exposure to the auto sector that's holding up a little stronger those names are on semi, wolfspeed and ambarella. >> thank you very much. further ahead, flip-flopping in purchasing homes fell 30%

over the last year as prices fall rates remain high. plus, water cooler conflict. it is the ongoing debate since the pandemic should employees have to return to the office full time? we'll hear from one ceo weighing in in today's working lunch. up next, carl ichan's bet against gamestop we'll have details when we return

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winning the game, the short game a activist investor reportedly made a profit getting against gamestop according to reports, ichan began building a short position at the height of the stock's mania in 2021, when gamestop was trading above $400 a share gamestop now lost more than 70% of its value from the all-time high in january of 2021. scott watner reports that ichan is still short of the video game retailer, but the size not disclose and had a little unclear. let's get to brian sullivan for a cnbc news update hello, brian. >> hello here's what's happening at this hour two people are dead after the

helicopter crashed in charlotte, north carolina, went down on the side of interstate 77. southbound lanes will be closed until midnight as investigating comb the scene nbc affiliate wcnc reports the helicopter belonged to another local tv station. cristiano ronaldo will not be going back to manchester united after the world cup ronaldo says he and the club are ending his contract early. man u says ronaldo is leaving, quote, with immediate effect move comes after he criticized the club's manager and owners in an explosive interview students at a kentucky ele elementary school held a food drive and had fun doing it they got local residents to do donate 2,900 boxes of cereal, which snaked through the school. it'll go to school resource centers across two school districts. we'll call that the ultimate domino run >> really. >> back to you and cheerio

>> well done, brian. >> pretty good. >> science and cereal all at once >> look at all those brands there. folks, ahead on "power lunch," getting vaccinated against a recession. we'll speak to one analyst that has biotech bets that could withstand a downturn. plus, the 52-week high club, a number of names hitting th milestone today. we'll trade them in toy'das three-stock lunch. we're back in minutes. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies

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well, we fell in love through gaming. designed to help you keep more of what you earn. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.

welcome back: the dow around session highs. s&p up 1%. nasdaq is about 0.75% higher right now. oil prices higher by 1%. though, off the highs of the session. this on a report that the eu is softening its stance on the russian oil price cap plan >> let's look at biotech now, which has been holding up well amid the volatility and fears about a recession. the biotech etf, the ibb, is up nearly 10% over the last month is this a good place to hide if so, what are some of the best names inside this techtor. i totally pulled a switcharoo. >> sector.

>> michael ye is managing director sometimes it happens that my mouth is ahead of my head. michael, let's talk a little about biotech and what is behind this general move higher >> great to be here. good to see you guys i think it is pretty simple. over the last month or two, obviously, the market and investors are quite concerned about where inflation is going, whether we're going into recession. you look at some of these names like biogen, gilead. these are companies that meet or beat earnings, raised guidance in the last quarter. you and i would agree visibility on cancer drugs and new diabetes drugs and obesity drugs are visible over the next four months we think it's been a great place to be, and we think people are catching onto that we think there's many to go. >> i want to go through the individual names, but i'm curious, why do you think they were under-owned, you know, two, three months ago

>> yeah. if you look at the first half of the year, there were certainly concerns about drug pricing. there was definitely concern about growth quiet honestly, i think most people were assuming we're still coming out of a post-covid recovery play. you go back to the first half of '22, obviously, again, look at where tech stocks were, cyclicals. they were on a terror. look where facebook and google and all of these others are today. there's been a complete reversal as people are fearing inflation, rising interest rates. again, obviously rotating into things a little more defensive >> i guess when you see up 27%, up 26%, up 44% near to date in a year where most things are down, you begin to naturally -- one might ask, am i too late to nibble at these? i assume you'd say no? >> well, i think on one side, tyler, you have to remember, these stocks were super cheap and well owned even though they're up 20%, 30%,

35%, 40% off the bottoms earlier this year, where people hated these names and didn't need to own it, sure, we've had a nice move off the bottom. secondly, they're still not expensive. they're trading at huge multiples. biogen is still trading at 17, 18 times gilead, which is trading up 11 times. they beat the quarter. still cheap. we think there's room to go. i don't think anyone thinks a recession or anything is going to end tomorrow, and i still think it is a good place to own some exposure to biotech. >> we're showing the stocks as you're talking what is remarkable is how much they're mirroring one another. amgen, biogen, gilead, vertex, the moves are sharply higher vertex pharma is up 44% year-to-date michael, what's behind it, and why could this move even higher? >> two things.

one is that vertex has been a great growth story it's been a great story. importantly, over the last six months, a lot of pipeline data came out without going into all of them, they certainly have three or four more drugs coming out and reading out data there's a new non-opioid, no non-addictive pain pill. data next year which could be huge non-opioid drug facing data next year that is a good story no generics. pipeline coming on a lot of the other is through the pipeline. >> of the rest of the group, gilead is up the least amount, up 18% year-to-date. what's gilead's story moving into 2023? >> this one, if you look back and pull up the chart, that's with tun that is, unfortunately, the worst. it's got the least expectations, the most under-owned of all these stocks hasn't done anything since the blast to the past.

all of a sudden, people figured out, boy, this is the cheapest trading at 9 or 10 times got a 4% dividend yield. look, we want to own names that have low expectations, they're not going to miss the quarter. guidance is fine they're cheap and there's been a huge rotation to some. a little more of a cheap story versus a vertex or biogen. those are stories with big pipelines. >> michael yee, thank you very much for joining us. appreciate it. >> good to be here let's give you a market flash. manchester united, the football team, are soaring and were briefly halted following a report by sky news, the team owners are set to announce they'll explore financial options, including a potential sale that'd be more news on a day they have parted ways with their start player, cristiano ronaldo. up next, today's working

lunch. the interview with the ceo of mass mutual. that is ahead. we will be right back. >> announcer: the bond report is brought to you by pimco. global leader in active fixed income

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last three years have been a wild ride for the markets, but they've led to a boom in the life insurance business. this week, jon fortt brings us up-close with a ceo who says consumers are thinking more about their mortality and options for relatively safe returns, jon. >> tile every, roger chrandall s ceo of mass mutual, saying they have their third record year as safety comes back in vogue mass mutual has a presence in its market segment with $11 billion in revenue more than $300 billion in assets under management one of his focused areas lately is using technology to simplify the process of on-boarding new customers and improving employee productivity when it comes to improving in his own job as ceo, old fashioned mentorship helps it is nice he can get advice from his uncle bob, a transformative ceo of american airlines >> invented frequent flier miles, among other things.

he was known for paying a little bit of attention to costs. famously taking the paint off the planes to reduce the weight of the planes, reduce fuel consu consumption. i was well aware of his role in business, and i became interested in markets. i became interested in business. most importantly, when i became president and ceo, he became an incredible mentor for me to talk about, how do you think about a board? how do you think about assembling a management team how do you think about all the things you don't learn in business school or really in many jobs until you become a president or ceo among other things, i'd had one boss at a time as a ceo, you have a board how do you think about, you know, do you rotate people on committees do you not rotate people on committees he was a great -- i'm fortunate. he is in his 80s and still gives me things to talk about.

>> roger has mass mutual leaning into flexible work arrangements as he pushes to help teams figure out which needs to c collaborate in person and what can be more remote it is not as simple as it looked couple years ago. >> we can measure first order productivity effects i think what we found is probably similar to what others found. when we first went fully remote, our productivity by those measures was fine. in fact, improved. in part, frankly, people were working more hours different hours but working a lot. i think the stuff that is tougher to measure is the second order effects. that is, did you consider all the options to reach a great decision did you kind of plow forward too quickly? the value of in-person collaboration, the wait a second, i wanted to follow up with you on that walking out after a meeting, which is hard to do on a zoom call where we roll from 3:59 to 4:59 to 5:59

those are the places where being in-person matters a lot. what we're seeing, and we're trying not -- we're firmly saying we're not doing a one size fits all. >> roger has an economic background, was chief investment officer for mass mutual through the financial crisis 15 years ago. he's got an interesting nuanced view on weathering volatility and the importance of innovation in that way, he takes off his uncle bob. >> insurance companies have had toposition themselves to weather the storm, so to speak the life insurance companies are very rate dependent. now, they're starting to see a return on that how does he think about positioning the company, positioning all of those assets under management, so that whatever comes down the pike, whether it is a pandemic, whether it's a cybersecurity attack, that mass mutual is in a position toenehe to handle it? >> he talked about cybersecurity being an issue the benefit of their structure not being publicly trading, they

can look longer term and structure themselves for that. it is one of the challenges as well as figuring out, again, on the technology side, how to position themselves to serve a customer who is used to get things right now and not having to send in paperwork they're using technology for that. >> one of the things that people maybe sometimes overlook about big insurance companies is they often make a lot of money in insurance, obviously, but also on money management. mutual funds. >> that's right, yes. >> oppenheimer, they own, i believe. >> yes they do annuities, have 401(k) plans, also, as well as life insurance, long-term disability. they have to manage all of those assets and invest them wisely so they can pay out when they need to you know, he reflected on the financial crisis and, particularly, the real estate fallout from that. how he wished he'd positioned the company differently in some little ways. overall, they did very well. it was that counterparty risk they had, where others weren't positioned as well and they had to be very careful.

>> the other thing is, insurance companies are seen as stodgy, but insurer tech is turning the industry upside down, how fintech is doing it for financial services insurance companies, in large part, are financial services, and he was talking about it, right? how do you onboard clients more rapidly? we're seeing it in property and casualty insurance, as well. how does he remain adaptable and flexible >> well, where i thought you were going, where i'll go is in risk management, which in a time where we're thinking about that differently, especially when it comes to crypto, he and i talked about crypto and how you've kind of got this domino effect. >> absolutely. >> which we saw happening also during the financial crisis. he drew the parallel within the narrow segment of crypto it's important not to think you can do risk management entirely different just because it is a different decade some things hold true. >> do you see what jon did what mediamanagers everywhere are telling people to do that is a great question, contessa, but my answer is going to be something totally

different. >> here's the question i thought you were going to ask. let me answer the question i wanted you to ask. >> thank you for the lesson in leadership and -- >> management. 52-week highs in today's three stock lunch.

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time now the "three stock lunch. today we're sipping on some names hitting new milestones ibm is trading at its highest level since february of 2020 o'reilly auto be a pepsi are both hitting fresh all-time highs. is there more room to run here, or is it time to take some profits? let's ask david wagner, portfolio manager and has our trades today first up, ibm. would you buy it or let things cool off a bit >> contessa, just last thursday i asked the rest of our team, if ibm was trading at a 52-week high, would you notice not a single one of us did notice the stock tends to be very defensive in nature. between the consulting and software business almost 70% of revenue is reoccurring if you compare that to their peers, they're closer to low single digits in exposure.

the struggle i get here is the multiple it's trading at the same level as a google which will probably make investors scratch their heads given the growth profile differences between the two companies. the other thing that worries me growth will probably start to slow in '23. one, they won't be a beneficiary of the main frame cycle and book to bill. i think this will pressure their free cash flow goal of $35 billion in 2024, though i don't really see the management team throwing the towel in on that target yet i'm on the sidelines here. it's tough to own a company with slowing growth next year at a relatively high valuation. >> can they keep it going? >> i think the one thing that really sticks out to me is the o'reilly story is the efficiency and the supply chain the autoparts industry, you need to have the right parts in the right place at the right time which has allowed them to increase market share against

other mom and pop shops and beating difficult comps across the board. you couple those market share gains with pricing power and then a company that's able to leverage their margins, which is something the market is really loving right now i think the one concern i have here right now is miles driven what happens to miles driven with higher gas prices and a work from home environment if you look year to date, it is down only 1% versus a year to date in 2019 and that's what gas prices say maybe 60% higher than three years ago. so you're still seeing the consumer value driving despite obvious head winds i continue to like the stock if you have a mean valuation i would probably go autozone o'reilly is still fine >> our final name, pepsico would you sip it or guzzle it down >> they trade at a 20% premium to the market and closer to a 40% premium right now and then

you look at pepsi and it's probably the most expensive house in the most expensive neighborhood trading close to a 50% premium. i understand that you get a lot of earnings resiliency with two-thirds of revenue coming from north america but demand has been stellar for them. just look at the last quarter, pepsi printed a 1% growth, organic growth profile off of a 6% comp for a staple, benefiting from a 17% rise and only 1% decline in volume. this tells me that consumers whether continuing to pay for what they want and pepsi, they sell affordable indulgences. maybe not the nectar of the gods like busch light this is a safe trade and a safe play so i would hold it if you owned it right now >> david, nutritionists everywhere are cringing at your use of the word staple with pepsico because they don't think it belongs in any pantry >> busch light >> occasionally, right

nice to see you, thank you >> david working in the kitchen today. thursday, too. a new record from redfin shows the housing market may be spooking investors looking to purchase property but the chaos could be good for relar gu buyers we'll explain that when we come back power e*trade's easy-to-use tools like dynamic charting and risk-reward analysis help make trading feel effortless and its customizable scans with social sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity

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potential home buyers are moving to the sidelines and a

new report shows real estate investors are, too diana olick has the latest numbers. >> reporter: investors don't want to get into a market prices are weakening. big surprise investor home purchases dropped over 30% compared with the same time a year ago and that's according to redfin the biggest drop in investor sales since the great recession minus a brief pause at the start of the pandemic. the drop in investors outpaced the overall market drop where sales were down about 27%. the investor share of sales came down but just slightly to 17.5% from 18% a year ago and it was still up compared with prepandemic levels and those investors who are still buying are paying more. the typical price paid up 6.4% from a year ago. the market seeing the biggest investor pullback, phoenix, portland, oregon, las vegas and miami, just to name a few on the screen they were the big pandemic hot spots but not so much now.

so not great news for the buyers like open door which have been buying future homes now to flip. redfin announced it was shuttering its program, zillow did that last year this does not appear to be hitting the single family rental reits which invest in homes. the fix and flip and rental demand is still strong though rents are coming back a little this pullback just another effect of rising rates on the economy. back to you. >> so these companies are reducing the volumes, the numbers of properties that they're buying, am i understanding correctly? >> reporter: correct >> so it's come down 40% >> reporter: 30% as well as individual investors. >> so what would change it, falling interest rates >> reporter: well, falling interest rates for one but the question is prices do investors pulling out help prices or hurt prices? and you can make the argument either way because it means that

maybe regular buyers not having to compete against investors could come back into the market now but would they support prices or would prices continue to come down because these cash buyers have left you decide >> take both sides of the argument like the debate team. >> thank you very much we have a 350-point gain on the dow. thanks, everybody, for watching. "closing bell" starts right now. stocks are higher in today's trading as retailer names give a boost to sentiment we are sitting at session highs as we speak, up 350 on the dow this is the make-or-break hour welcome to "closing bell quigs i'm sara eisen up 1% on the dow nicely on the southwest 500 with every sector now in the green. energy takes the lead today. that sector up 3% as oil prices stabilize, materials, technology, communication services, that's all on the top of the market. it's why the nasdaq is rebounding after yesterday's weak close about a full percent right now. small caps up a little more than