year they are gonna lose money as far as you can see. the world has to come to realize that these stocks don' work anymore you have to come down a lot, it's gonna go down a lot more. >> all right, shannon? >> netflix adds support here t bring a billion and a half i revenue in 2023. >> and joe terranova >> long v is a happy thanksgiving everybody >> happy thanksgiving everyone here, thank you so much will see you on friday, that does it for the halftim report the exchange begins right now. don, thank you very. matures with the head on the exchange stocks are muted here but are we about to see period of real strength in the markets? one market says yes, and it is time to play offense plus, betting on the consume and on the department stor come back. mastercard's global chie economist will join us with th

trends he is seeing as we head into the holiday shoppin season and, bomb uygur's returned t disney came as a big surprise, but one period there suggest h has next move could be eve more shocking. we have got the details. but we begin with the market and mr. frank columns with the numbers. hi, frank. >> hi tyler. you hit the nail on the. head a really muted market day and we await those numbers thi afternoon and what impact migh provide on the central bank' approach a monetary policy ahead of the december meeting. we will see if there is an hope of positive pivot tha investors are looking for, and as we can see right, here th s&p that - so as we wait for those fe minutes, let's look at the tenure right now three point 79 we have to remember that tha is about 50 basis point from its recent high in mid october back then it was above 4.2%. those rates well off their 4.2 highs just about 5% this quarter. and we're looking at energy, the worst performing sector in the s&p today, down today alon with oil we see the s&p sector here for

energy down almost 2%. the deputy - down more than 4% on the stocks the move here that we ar seeing are diversions on the trend over the past month. also, a huge shovel dates here in the u.s.. gas prices are actually 15 cents cheaper than they were a week ago and two big mover today. we are talking tesla, on its upgrade from city, shares up more than four to half percent right now, rbc prett optimistic about the sector. and then we have deer of cours earning top from the botto line upbeat adding that the suppl chain is improving the falling dollar also gift that company, tyler, back over to. you >> all right, mr. haaland. thank you very much in now while the tradin week will be cut short b thanksgiving and then blac friday, there has certainl been no shortage of retail earnings cnbc.com's melissa wrecked g here to break it down. >> had, tyler. what we are seeing so far as the customers are being much more choosy than they were before they are value confidentia conscious. they're looking for deals. it's different than a year ago and that timing of shopping ha

really changed to. there's a lot of anticipatio on black friday week which last year people are shoppin much earlier than what we ar seeing >> this is choosing us being reflected and some of th country companies that hav inventory problems in other words, it's not movin as quickly as they might hav expected >> yes cory bury the ceo of best bu has mentioned that customers don't at the same instinct t shop early a year ago they're hearing all the time about get your gift early might not get them a all. this year it's the opposit message. they're hearing about all th abundance of extra stuff and s they're kind of waiting fo that stuff to be you know, 40% off 50% off. they want to get out and say she was possible >> was that what you sense i coming do you expect people are gonna revert to what had been thei pattern before which is to wai wait wait and wait until those prices come down is that what we are likely t see on the consumer side and also on the merchant side? >> i have heard that fro virtually every retailer that they are anticipating a

more of a return to the rush t christmas, and also the rush t sales during black friday. they talk about a lull in late october and early november macy's ceo jack skin that wa one of those people who said that there was a while where h actually had in the past wee that has picked up again so he thinks that just reall people waiting for those deals but also just being more preoccupied with other parts o their life again >> one of the discussions we have every year for the past 2 years have been the e-commerce versus hard commerce in th store commerce where does that stand this year >> this year stores expec to get a lot more people comin in actually, for black friday the national resale federation i predicting a record number o shoppers during the whole blac friday weekend and part of that is because of the deals dynamic, but als people have missed out on that experience over the past few years and they want a touch an feel item before buying them not just rely on what migh arrive in a car box. >> the big retail company is

still going to be open o thanksgiving day or has that novelty were not >> that is pretty much come to an end walmart, target, another major retailers will be shut o thanksgiving day they are continuing that fro last year. that is really been a holdover from the pandemic and so peopl can still shop online from their couch after eating som high and turkey but they are anticipating people coming i on that black and through cybe nadeau's course shopping align >> enough already. let the people have a day off, for goodness sake. and my last question, how do you got my present yet have you fixed my noun >> still working out, waitin for a good deal >> well thanks so much, melissa redfield we appreciate your time. all right, new economic data today raising hopes of a stron holiday shopping season. consumer sentiment, new home sales stronger than expected and while u.s. manufacturing activity contracted again, the reading on input costs slipped to the lowest level sinc december 2020. that is a possible sign of

easing in those supply chang bottlenecks. our next guest, bullish on consumer spending exit black friday sales at department stores to be up 25% year ove year with seared global choice good to have you with us so you are pretty bullish did you hear anything abou melissa said that you want t take issue with or agree with? >> hi, tyler well, i want to pick up on something melissa said which i experience is. it really is about tha experience economy, about goin back to the store, about getting people, touching the items but not just that. if you look at the decoration, look at what is happening on the retail front, they reall are focused on the consume experience and consumers are looking for that experience, that memory that they have o shopping for the holiday seaso and getting out there an shopping like that again >> how would you asses consumer spirits those animal spirits, consumer sentiment? good, okay, poor, what

>> i think there is a tensio that there, tyler, when you think about what is happening in the world today there's a lot of things to b concerned about. there's a lot of concerns abou higher inflation, the impact that it has on the allocatio of what people are spending. but at the end of the day, there still is a very health labor market a lot of input people gettin paid a lot more than they have been getting paid. so you see that wage increas which is driving consume spending so people employed and peopl getting paid means that people are going to be spending >> department store sales, people venturing about the death of the departments for four years i happen to like departmen stores i like the experience. they take me back to m childhood when i would go with my mom what is explaining their sor of durability? >> i think it is an evolution, like any business that get challenged at certain points i time they have to evolve and

they have been evolving. they've been evolving into multi channels they've bee evolving to become mor department stores by nature. trying to invent some of those big brands into their stores s that they can attract certai customers and then push them into other products. that is really what department stores are all about and tha is really where the focus ha been >> we had a guest on yesterday and power lunches said that th levels of balances on that are being carried on credit card have been rising lately. does that match what you are seeing obviously you are mastercard chief economist so you shoul know if anybody should know whether balances arising, and does tha then that have in any sends depressing effect or a slowing the effect of consumers realize, hey, i'm carrying a bigger balance than i thought i should >> i think it is probably data that we look at for that so that data on consumer deb

or how they are a volleying as consumers fire by more homes they take up more debt and as we typically come out o an economic cycle, we typicall see a greater rotation int credit versus devin spending during this economic cycle, it is probably unlike any other where we see stronger consumer spending on credit as people both build confidence in their ability to repay that credit as well as rebalance their own check books and try to think about how they can afford to maintain the lifestyle tha they are looking for so we are seeing a lot of that rotation not just in the way people are paying, but als what they are buying so if you think about what consumers are doing. they are trading down products trading down brands, thinkin about how they're going to enforce that and that gets us back to black friday and how people are goin to be looking for that opportunity. >> so let's talk a little bi about the fed as we are sort o obligated to do. we are going to get to the minutes here in about 55 minutes from their most recent meeting. how do you think the rise in

interest rates is affecting th consumer >> i think the rise in interes rates is really affecting th allocation of spending so you think about your ow life and how you experienc interest rates, you see higher mortgage costs and that pushes you out of your house or i pushes you out of an opportunity to spend more on your house because you may not think that the value is goin to go up as much and that means that some of th spending related to househol spending if you look at our spendin data on household goods or appliances, things like that you are starting to see a bi of a cooling-off similar t what we are seeing and housing so it really is a bifurcatio of the interest rate sensitive sectors. things like housing and cars versus the non-interest rate sensitive sectors. things that tend to be mor discretionary in nature and no linked to you interest rates a much >> thanks very much, have great thanksgiving britt maguire of master club we appreciate. it >> thank you. >> let's take a closer look at the price surge in new hom sales since last month

the question is could it be sign of better things to cover housing? this is the 30 year fixe mortgage rate. it holds a little bit low 7% high, tie. >> yeah after a sharp drop i september's home sales rebounded in september of 7% although down nearly 6% over year every year. it's surprising given that mortgage rates were solely ove 7% of the vast majority of the month before dropping back jus over a week ago. and the sales figures are base on the signs contracts durin october. the median price was still u 50% year over year, but that i a medium which is really reflecting the myths of home selling right now. higher and homes in his rising rates are hitting lower income buyers harder. the surge entails is likely du to huge push in builde incentives 59% of builders recently reported using incentives with a big increase in usage from september to november. a big surge in builders pain points on the mortgage for buyers that is rate by downs and 37

of builders reported price cut now up from 26% in september with an average price of reduction, 6%. the builder stocks are likin the numbers, especially luxury luxury builder toll brothers a rates now half percentage poin lower than they were i october. we are seeing mortgage deman inching back a 3% weekly gain from buyers last week which could also bod well for the builders. although we are heading into historically the slowest few months of the year for housing tyler. >> the time when rates tend to come down seasonally, wher sales tend to pull bac seasonally are any of the builders or the experts you are talking to and housing starting to feel a though maybe the worst i behind them? >> he should answer is no. i will say that thes incentives may have helped get things moving along a little bit in last month or so, and w will see if this drops back to about six and half percent we will get some more buyers i the door but it is really not enough,

given that we have seen prices up 40% from just two years ago and mortgage rates still doubl what they were at the start of this year. and again, concerned about the overall economy. so i think that they expect to see a little bit more pain before we see the gain >> and as you often say, and i think it is particularly tru for the lower end purchase o the first time buyer people by the payment not price of the home. that is where they see and fee the difference in interest rates. >> yes, absolutely and we are not really going to see that monthly payment com down until we start to see a real decisive drop lower i home prices. we are starting to see the come down month to month but that is seasonal, as you sai before we see that in the fall during the slower housing season. so the question is, will the price of the homes role blac so that when translated into that monthly payment it come down the enough for more peopl to be a little fortunate that is going to take a lot. >> all right, diane. have a great thanksgiving, thank. slot >> you too.

>> all right bob iger know throughout hollywood as consummate dealmaker could his next deal be as seller and not a buyer fascinating to ponder that one plus, chip stock from bitcoi are going in opposit directions this month. is cryptos pain semiconductors gain we will look at that and why i may all time back to f t acts, the exchange is back after this this >> this is, the exchange, on this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. cnbc cnbc and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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exchange wagner shocking mixed return to disney have investor cheering with shares of nearly 20% this week but they still face the same challenges that his predecessor encountered from streaming profitability to murder issues. but what of the media mone king could be the next mma target under iger, disney spent nearl 100 billion dollars on acquisition buying everythin from pixar to marvel to 21st century fox. we uygur's next move could b as a seller. the possible virus apple joe bill bruner's business editor at large at the rap longtime holiday reporter fo the l.a. times in the. like where is this coming from joe? >> well it is fascinating to see what is going on insid disney right now

we were so close, i would sa two or three months ago on breaking a story about eithe tom stags or kevin mayor comin back to leave the company. but then they have at the last minute bob che back gave him back his renewed contract. so we had to, that straight an go anywhere. so now you are looking, at you've got a two-year window tyler. to either find his exceptor an groom someone from the insid or he could try to get somebod from the outside, like kevin o tom, or the third path, he get all the place. and we just found out if i can go a chart that showed all his acquisitions that 7.4 billion dolla acquisition of pixar, run by steve jobs made the two of the very very close friends. and this is a deal that go away from him and people on th inside are bringing that up. >> people in the inside of disney well >> yeah, executives and employees of disney are no

talking or wondering about whether this is and game >> wondering and look, i wrote it in th piece on the wrap. there are a lot of caveats it's a 2.4 trillion dollar apple and a 2.4 billion dollar disney investment bankers are gonna have their hands full puttin that kind of deal together but that is the scuttlebut inside why would iger come back >> but as i hear him this week and what he has said, he cam back in part because he love disney and he believed tha disney was not being managed with the do care for tha creative side of the busines that he i think prides himself on with do you care for the employees. he has had trouble with, he ha troubled some of the moves tha mr. -- made especially during the pandemic that doesn't sound to me rhetorically like the kind o

guy who's next move is going t be to bundle the business an sell it so that disney the ceases to become an independen company. >> i agree with everything tha you just said, and that is certainly the caveat that wrote in the story, in tha piece. but the other thing to think of, and this is what i am also hearing from the inside, why didn't they bring bob iger bac before they renewed che pack why did he come back then? i think it is just become an urgent device inside to try to figure what their next ste forward is i mean, their earnings are not exactly been great you are seeing a lot of mone losing going on with disney+ and advertising sales are in a slump. so this kind of a deal could actually give him a great, i can put them in. i mean, this gets through to every single consumer on the planet it would be a great pipeline t do so. >> interesting so, 56 months ago disney get

jay pack a brand-new lucrative contract so the questionbecomes, wh pushed jay pack out? who did it the stories i am reading, my own reporting, the board they were getting very tired o what was going on the inside o the executive suites >> they were hearing i presume from executives on the inside. i presume they may also have been hearing from the strike himself. >> well that is a very interesting point. he never really let go of bein ceo. from what i am hearing fro reports, he would still call u some of his former employee' at departments there in th middle the night of the middle of the day to talk sharp so he has never really let go. and so this would just beam, i think he's pretty plugged into

the executives there and tha is just what the rumor is. >> yeah, he loves disney clearly and it took him severa tries, if i'm recalling colo correctly, before he actuall pulled his records and loved >> right i mean he held on to, i forget what his title was but it was chairman rule for the first fe years at j. pak, and then left the company altogether at th end of this year , or the end of last year. so he is pretty plugged in this could be a fascinatin story to play out for the worl 's largest entertainment company. >> mr. iger reportedly had a very good in close relationshi with steve jobs. what do we know of his relationship with tim cook i believe he was on the appl board. i can't remember until i think he had to step off the apple word >> i know that steve job certainly was on it when the bought pixar, until his death.

so the two of them were very close friends. they went on vacations together their wives got along well they spent holidays, and so hi relationship with tim cook that i don't know specifically i know that the two men know each other nine other they had conversations as you do if you are chief executive at tha level. whether those conversation have been as for t-shirts, i something i don't know yet but i think we will find out in th coming days, weeks, years. >> and it will be an interesting fascinating stor to watch over the next few years. joe bill bruno, thank you very much >> coming up, a check on plane and trains will americas airlines prepare for the holiday travel surge and, will the u.s. economy b derailed come december 9th we will discuss the exchange back after this.

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of the eight 100th of a point. that is basically flat, folks. at one point was down about 93 that was a lot of the day. now it's not about 26. basically a pretty calm day in the markets. not a lot of major movement. here are some of the mover this hour, however autodesk shares among the wors performers today the company beating on the top and bottom line but issu weaker than expected guidelines all that saying that customers are more reluctant to sign longer term contracts. there you see the fallout in that stop credit suites also seeing losses today the swiss bank warning of a 1. billion dollar loss. customers pull their money out on concerns about the company' financial health you never want to see that i you are a banker and, manchester united seein big gains for the second straight day after the socce club said it was considering strategic alternatives including a possible sale. now for the nbc news update,

hi >> authorities in oklahoma wan to extradite a man wanted in connection with the executio style murders of four people a a marijuana farm over th weekend. they posted this picture of th suspect after his arrest b police in florida, who jumpe into action after a car ta reader flagged the vehicle guy was driving. georges's court has reinstated the ban on abortion after si weeks of pregnancy a lower court's invalidate t the law because it was passe in 2019, when abortion right were still protected by th u.s. supreme court roe v. wade relaying enforcement continues we'll georgia's high court continues at appeal filicoides action and, in a tokyo auditorium wit a video feed of the match, fan celebrated japan's surprise to one win over germany in th world cup. and you know who else is celebrating? this new jersey guy who pu $35,000 down on japan, only 18

of the money wagered went to japan. he won, are you ready for, thi $227,000 so that is a big win for thi better, but most of the vote coming in on germany, i mean the house. winds >> 35,000 of japan that takes some fortitude, let's put it that way. >> i was gonna go the differen word but >> yeah, well, i'll see you an a half our ahead from bitcoin minin to minecraft why the crisis of confidence i the crypto word could be a boost for the video game industry and, one veteran strategist as the time has come to pla offense not defense in thi market why and what should you buy? the exchange will be back in the exchange will be back in two minuteunity is using data to create a competitive advantage. ♪ ♪ it's raising capital that helps companies change the world.

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fallout from the f. px bankruptcy scandal feeding int what was already being called crypto winter. bitcoin now on pace for it worst month since june, set to snap a three-year winnin streak and arrival industry could end up as a big beneficiary. video games, crypto mining actually relies on the sam

semiconductor chips and card that video games run on, s with crypto demand waning an competition for ship decreasing, could video game makers see a boost here to discuss this is ro trustedsec, cofounder the vide game pollack publication polygon. so what's a, you rush. could cryptos bad news begin news for the game in consu manufacturers because demand for the chips is down, tha prices down, they can biden sh price? >> yeah, i think we are alread seeing a huge impact on this drop basically, there was thi period of time where all these manufacturers. think of sony for example to make the playstation five. struggling to get supply out there because they couldn' meet this demand of everyone who want to clung, first centrally two years. people that make gaming pcs fo example need those graphic cards. all of those graphics cards ar going off to fund thes intricate crypto minin

operations and so you see prices that wer like three hunted percent abov normal it was bizarre and now they are starting to come down again. >> what are the main manufacturers of those cards >> sure, so we've got nvidia mvp are really the main tw graphics manufacturers and a empty for example powers many of the gaming council that you interact with xbox for example, nintendo and so those consu manufacturers rely on thos trips to let say, either get back out there or update their stock. nintendo >> please finish, russ i'm sorry >> i was going to, say intend it was looking to appease their hardware for several years now. it keeps getting delayed they have had a lot of success but at this point i think part of it is just a supply issue they haven't had the chips t update the nintendo switch eve though they had this enormou success. they would sell a boatload but they are not quite there yet >> so there is the good news for the game consul makers they are going to have bette access to these chip cards a

lower prices than they had expected and there isn't going to be perhaps the supply chain bottlenecks that we saw. i just for that word, i'm no supposed to. that but at any rate >> on the other, hand has been a good year? has it been a blockbuster year for gaming titles? which would then drive demand? >> that is a good question that has not been a very goo year for gaming. in fact, it's one of the weakest years for gaming i recent memory. a lot of that has to do with the pandemic a lot of these games are being made, they were developmen cycles that got shipped throug the pandemic is that we ar starting to see th consequences of that one and two years after th fact all of these games are getting pusher canceled. there are so few games release this year that there jus wasn't a lot of support. we are seeing a big improvemen in releases in 2023. do so i think it will balanc back this past year has bee dramatically week for th gaming industry. >> so which is the mor

important factor here, is it the chips, chip card issue o the dearth of successful titles? >> i think they are tied i think now that you are seein the chips getting out there an becoming more available, and you are seeing these gam releases start to pepper i through the 2023 season, you are going to see both th success of those ships as well as the success of the game industries that have bee essentially without majo leases or the past year and half so i think you will start to see a balance. >> maybe their clueless parents, clueless grant grandparents ou there who would like to know what to the hot game is this christmas season for their child or grandchild. what are a couple? >> i mean, a fair bit will always be if you buy your ki fortnight deluxe they're probably not gonna wal away disappointed. obviously -- remains a massive success. and there is a new pokémon game out. pokémon --

and violent. these are kind of safe bets fo kids >> all right, you've explained a complicated thing and giving us some gaming tips fo shopping season. russ, we think you rush west staying. >> how did you help >> just going to check on shares of cuba software, that' been jumping into a halt on th headline that vista equity partners as exploring a deal t acquire the company. now, according to bloomber that is where that story comes from we have reached out to the companies and we will let yo know it what we hear as soon a we hear it coming up, we are gettin closer and closer to a natio wide rail shutdown that coul halt 7000 trains and cost more than two billion dollars a day we are going to look at what i riding on the rails and what i at stake for the u.s. economy, and from trains to planes, wit thanksgiving travel expected t have prevented a glove ulcer are the airlines ready for the surge? we will go live, to o'hare

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welcome. back real strikes could be les than two weeks away, but railroad carriers will have to make some tough decisions even before than, well before then. and that is prioritizing you free to movement that has to happen by roughl december 1st ahead of possible strike eight days after that it frills shut down nationwide it would hold nearly 700 freight trains a day and cos more than two billion dollars day. for more on the goods most impacted and how costly it could get, i am joined by cnbc slurry - you've been following this very closely i gather one of th sectors that will be affecte most immediately it would be chemicals. why? >> you've got that right while the reason why i that there is an embargo, if you will and now that the dearest has aligned with the other union to align their strikes, ther

is no clarity for logistics. and so there's an additional base to move these chemicals like chlorine used i semiconductor chips as well as water. you have ev battery, solar panels, and even auto circuitr that are all comprised o chemicals. >> so chemicals, because the are unstable, pose various risks, those are the thing that get prioritized and get sent to there and destination. and other things are shunted aside, basically >> exactly so december 1st, what they d is they look at what chemicals on the rails that moment and at the same time they ar saying we are not taking any more new chemicals so these chemical manufacturer are now stuck with x amount of materials right of their facilities and so what happens is the have a three-day window to fin these chemicals as well as t secure them or to get them t their final destination. >> so, next on cue than ou

other kinds of goods that ma be in transit on the rails what industries will be most affected and what kind of good are we talking about here? consumer goods >> we are talking consumer goods, we are talking spring items and so i spoke with th national resale's federation and the american apparel footwear association get these numbers. 30% of and are as products g by rail. one third of the america apparel footwear association products go by real and this is all springtim items. and you and i both know when w go to the store, the day after the holidays went to ac? we see the easter baskets, w see that all the sprin products so it is critical for th apparel association to get these items out. >> i would think also one of the things that could be a backlog there would be automobiles. a lot of automobiles fro factories to dealerships on th rails. >> most apparently and on top of that, you have got the semiconductor chip that the autos need and th

circuitry. their chemicals actually tha go into the circus for the automobiles. >> we haven't had a national real strike in this country in a long time. that i can remember. and we are looking at deadline of december 8th it seems to me that this would be the kind of thing where the administration warned congress would come into play her because the economic rippl effects could be so drastic. >> most definitely so what we have to look for no it's how quickly will congress move and so >> it is congress, it is not the administration >> it is congress. >> the administration is fundamentally out of this >> the president has to sign what congress, whatever legislation they come up with. and this is under the commerce clause under the constitution. and so congress comes back nex week because of thanksgiving so monday is the senate, t stay at the house, and then tw days later you have -- and so the window, if you will if they you want to step i prior to stopping is ver

small. so what we are looking at no is congress has to pul december 8th >> so before i let you go, w were talking earlier and you told me something wa fascinating. the issue here was not money salary, it was time off. how many days off duties rai workers get typically and what do they want >> they want to have federal time off so, back during covid. >> equal to federal workers? get >> equal to what federal workers are getting. which >> is? what >> 56 hours >> so that's a week plus >> exactly normal time right now they get on day. they have negotiated additiona time, but they want additional days off >> one day-ification or of sic leave? >> sick leave. >> they get one paid sick leav day a year >> that is what they're arguin for. >> and they want to be treated the same way so-called essential federal workers ar treated.

because they, that was applied to them during the pandemic, correct? >> exactly that's what all of the union leaders, the that i spoke with they were designated as federa workers. they're going back to the real carriers now thing, we wer designated as a federal worker we want 56 hours of sick tim and the railroads are tellin them no. and they keep on going bac time and time again with these negotiations >> all right, you'll be al over this as a story develop over the next week or ten days or so. thanks very much they certainly for us >> and coming up in power lunch we're gonna see with the ceo of the chemical gian huntsman on what a possibl real strike could you to the industry as laurie and was jus explaining it hit snow industry harde than it does chemical. over potential rail strike pushing national gas dru prices to the highest level in two months today but this even says that side o the story for us hey, kepa. >> that's right, tyler natural gas is jumping because a rail strike could hi transportation and a coal deliveries ar disrupted, that could boos

demand for gas coal produces roughly 20% of u.s. electricity and railroads transports about 70% of that cool now, utilities that you school typically have a 30-day supply on hand. so they wouldn't immediately run out of supplies. but at the coal plants, an buildup in inventory will lead to production shutdowns whic impact future supply and this of course has energ markets are very tight that is not the only story for that gas the more immediate driver is december forecast, which has turned significantly colder. there has been an increase i heating degree days, which means more demand for gas. bt w analytics eli reube adding that net gas costs abou a 50 day moving average, and then we have also got finn trading and the month contracts, tyler, it doesn't rule thi monday so that gets the highs ade u about 7% that >> so what does this mean for consumers utility bills in

which they can go off? >> well it is certainly no good news the latest cpi report showed that utility type gas which is that gas, is alread up 20% of the last year. and so a crisis they hire fo longer, we will certainly feel that in our bill but beyond the whether there are two key things to watc going forward and the first is production we do typically see a jump int early winter, and then the second is the question mar around reports lng facility in texas which has been off lin since june after a fire. so that took away quite a bi of demand from the market. and freeport said that the expect that initial production will resume in december, but that remains to be seen. so there are some wildcard here to watch going forward. >> we're gonna feel that our bills and in our bones, when i turn this thermostat down to 60, five have, thinks a lot. still ahead, value has outperformed growth so far thi year but my next guest say that trade is getting crowded. time to play some offense. next next that you want to keep in the family...

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welcome back to "the exchange." if you're thinking about adding some value stocks as you rebalance your portfolio for next year, hold on just a minute our next guest says that trade is a little bit crowded. it's time to start playing offense, maybe a little growth joining us now with its top

picks, sandy vilari, portfolio manager at vilari and company. you think the next six months or so, the november to may period, may be favorable to stocks is that for seasonal reasons or because you think some of the bad situations we've been worried about are going to be a little less bad over the next six months >> yeah, i guess a little bit of both i do believe seasonally we should be very good from now until may but i do believe we get in some trouble as far as a light recession. probably third quarter 2023. and the tough month is really the month before recession hits. so i think you can play a lot of offense until really may and it may be the old adage sell in may go away may ring true but i certainly want to get out of the crowded trade, which is the large cap defensive names, large cap value that's only down about 2% year to date vs. the large cap growth names down about 29%. so i want to fish in the pond of the growthier names than certainly the value names.

>> growthier names like on semiconductor. why that one >> we were actually invested in cypress semiconductor with hassan al khouri he's been a phenomenal ceo they're getting out of a lot of their lower margin sort of commodity-oriented things and getting into things like silicon carbide that's going to be -- goldman sachs says about a million electric vehicle batteries are made with silicon carbide going up to about 13 million by 2030. so the wind is at their back and he's just done such a great job of improving margins that we like that one a lot. >> and you've got one called on holdings this is the snacker maker, aren't they? the swiss sneaker maker. i've got a couple pairs of their shoes. they're wonderful. >> yeah, they are. and i guess i gave you an on two-fer. this is the on on is the ticker. the swiss shoe maker you see them a lot in the sort of southeastern schools if you will but they're going to have a lot of growth ahead of them. they should grow at probably 50% year over year but i think they

can grow at 30% over the next three, four, five years. and they're just attacking this $300 billion footwear and apparel market i think they've got a really nice runway ahead of them. and it's really very high-end. if you look at nordstrom's numbers this morning they did well with the luxury and high-end and they kind of sufferedwith the lower end nordstrom rack consumer. so i think their consumer won't blink at $125 price tag and they're just doing a very nice job and frankly only been public for a little bit over a year here's an opportunity to buy a stock. down about 50% >> i want to note you like freeport mcmoran but i want to turn back to something i think is an interesting thing. we went through a couple of years with tina where there is no alternative to equities right now there is an alternative. that is bonds and cds. you can get decent yields. >> for the first time in a long time you can finally get some decent yields in fixed income.

we like a shorter-term two-year goldman sachs bond that's basically yielding close to 5% so that's nothing to sneeze at when you compare it to where the s&p 500 yield is and if you go back, what, nine months ago or something like that, yield was much better on the s&p stocks so i think the higher yields are certainly attracting a lot of the dollars from the stock market now but that's not a bad place to hide in this environment also >> sandy, thanks very much have a great -- i almost said halloween. have a great thanksgiving, sandy. >> happy thanksgiving, tyler thank you. >> you bet all righty still ahead, the thanksgiving travel rush is under way are airlines and airports prepared to handle the crowds? phil lebeau is live at o'hare with that story. hey, phil. >> hey, tyler. this is exactly what airlines and travelers were looking for for the start of the thanksgiving travel rush the planes are on time so far and the planes are also packed for the airlines we'lrudo t nbe il n wnheumrsn just a little bit. wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here!

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welcome back to "the exchange." last little block here before we hand it off to "power lunch. the demand for air travel this thanksgiving expected to reach pre-pandemic levels. it's a good sign for the travel industry but are airlines prepared for the demand phil lebeau is live at o'hare airport in chicago with that story. brave man, phil lebeau brave man. >> you know, tyler, i have been standing out here at o'hare on the wednesday before thanksgiving for almost 25 years. and this may be one of the rare times -- i think i can count on my hand maybe a few times where we didn't see major delays in problems and this is in a year where we're going to see more than 4.5 million people flying this week. a good chunk of them flying today. the two sundays are the busiest for travel this is an increase of almost 8% compared to last year. airfares, this is the good news for the airlines, they're up roughly 10% compared to where

they were a year ago in terms of how the airlines are prepared, they have cut their capacity relative to 2019 and as a result they're better prepared in terms of not being stretched too thin in fact, when we talked with the transportation secretary, pete buttigieg, he says the airlines now have learned from their mistakes this summer >> we've seen more hiring. we've seen better pay. we've seen more realistic schedules. but i think we're still many months away from getting to a level where we're all confident that the system could fully absorb a major weather event >> and the good news is we don't have a major weather event around the country today or tonight. not expected even through the end of the weekend if there is a negative it's the fact that jet fuel, even though it has come back a little bit, it's still up dramatically compared to where it was a year ago. quickly take a look at the airline stocks i know we were showing those during the intro, tyler. nice move higher today the big concern out there. and this goes into 2023.

labor costs. they've got a lot of contracts that are going to be negotiated over the next six months to a year that's the expectation, that those will be weighing, and that's one reason why airline stocks nowhere close to where they were let's say a year or two ago. >> i want a video montage of 25 years of lebeau at o'hare on the wednesday before thanksgiving, man. >> there's somebody named megan reeder who's putting it together right now. >> we're going to have it, my friend phil lebeau, happy thanksgiving. >> you bet >> that'll do it for "the exchange" and i will join my friend contessa brewer for "power lunch," which starts right now. hello, tyler hello, everybody and welcome to "power lunch." i'm contessa brewer. here's what's ahead. the probability of a rail strike is rising. analysts put the economic cost at $2 billion a day and the chemicals industry could be the hardest hit. the ceo of huntsman is here to discuss how his company is managing this looming threat