it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." kicking off the holidays and one of the most important and busiest shopping seasons as investors gear up for black friday and looking for positive week in the last three right now pointing to modest gains. developing overnight in china. lockdowns and restrictions across the country as covid cases close in on record highs and speaking of china, a closer look at apple the and new

lockdowns on the supply chain. and second time could be the charm for elon musk and his twitter blue relaunch. it is black friday, november 25th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan a short day on wall street today for black friday the closing bell will ring at 1:00 p.m. eastern time today right now, ahead of the day of trading, futures are indicating modest moves at opening bell dow jones industrial average just about flat implied at opening dbell nasdaq is same and modest for s&p. checking in on the baond market

yields are ticking lower 10-year treasury yield is 3.707% 2-year treasury is 2.47% in energy prices, oil is a medium or longer term down trend. wti crude is up 1.61 to $79.56 trying to reclaim the $$80. in cryptocurrency, the $16,000 is very much in focus. bitcoin down .75%. $16,426. ethereum is $1,178 let's go worldwide julianna tatelbaum is in our london newsroom with the price

action in europe and wrap up of asia good black friday morning, julianna >> dom, good morning happy black friday to you. the big news out in last ten minutes came from china. after chinese markets closed up for the trading day, the pboc, people's bank of china, came out with a triple r cut. it is a stimulative measure. it is the amount of cash banks must hold as reserves. along with the triple r cut, the pboc said they are not looking to flood-like stimulus all of this against the back drop of the worsening covid situation and the authorities in china now trying their best to support the economy. that is the news as i said, this came out in the last ten minutes after chinese markets closed shanghai closed 0.4% higher in overnight trade. hang seng and hong kong the

same turning to europe. the picture on black friday. we have a mixed set of trade within europe. the ftse 100 trading higher by .14%. oil and gas names out performing this morning over in germany, dax down .30% cac 40 in france also trading lower. muted day as no doubt some europeans will celebrate today as well. dom, a short day stateside is impacting trade here lightly more muted volumes so far. dom. >> julianna tatelbaum live with the latest in london thank you for the update. to the top corporate stories. pi pi pipp pippa stevens is here with those. >> the two suits have been filed in the southern district of new york and seeking class action status allege banks benefitted

from jeffery epstein's trafficking operations and ignored red flags about their client deutsche bank says the claims are without merit. adidas is launching an investigation into inappropriate behavior by kanye west while working with the yeezy sneaker line former employees tell the wall street journal the artist who now goes by ye showed and watched porn during work hours and in meetings. he tried to fire employees he was not authorized to fire and berated others in front of colleagues. and the u.s. is set to grant a license to chevron to pump oil in venezuela again that could open the door for other oil company noticin the c years. this is a $3 billion humanitarian program and resuming talks over resolving the political crisis with the

countries. and elon musk is granting amnesty for twitter accounts next week. the policy coming after musk posted a poll asking if he should reinstate accounts. musk used the same method to decide to reinstate former president trump to twitter dom, musk is sendtentatively seo reauthorize twitter blue next week >> pippa with the latest thank you very much. it is black friday the official kickoff to the holiday shopping season. there it is. the countdown to christmas clock. we can put it up now it is black friday and not thanksgiving anymore. the retail federation estimates

americans could spend $1 trillion with a "t" this year. as inflation strapped consumers are cautious about discretionary purchases. bertha coombs is joining us from target in fairfield, new jersey with the outlook it looks calm for right now, bertha >> reporter: the calm before the storm. back in the day, we used to have the long lines outside as people were waiting for door busters. no more. we don't have that now this target will open regular hours at 7:00 a.m. not the wee small hours to get people rushing in. part to reduce crowds and now they don't want to push consumers, necessarily the national retail federation expect 166 million of us will be out shopping this black friday weekend and cyber monday

a lot of it happens in stores. the nrf expects with all that spending, holiday sales will be up between 6% and 8%. reaching nearly $1 trillion. analysts say when you adjust for inflation, sales will be up just 1% to 3% which makes this the slowest christmas since the financial crisis when sales declined from big box retailers like target and walmart, getting consumers to spend is a game of "the price is right. they had to discount to get product out the door the big question this holiday season is just how much more promotional they have to be to get shoppers to buy now and not wait dom, we have four weekends until christmas. a lot of analysts think we will see consumers play that game of

chicken. waiting to see just how low the stores will go and not worrying about inventory not being there as we saw the last couple holiday seasons. >> bertha, you are at a big box store. that means pharmacy and grocery and apparel and electronics. it is a place to find anything is there a sense in your mind about where consumers will want to tilt that discretionary spending in apparel and electronics which is the go-to every season or are people looking at experiences or travel to spend what legal money they have after inflation >> reporter: i think it depends on where you are in terms of location if you have more money, you may want to opt for experience travel is more expensive as well if you are watching your wallet

closely, as a lot of people facing higher food prices and gas prices, they are -- this is the season when you have discretionary spending they will look for the most bargains we have seen discounts with electronics and things like that when it comes to clothing, i bet people will see more discounts >> bertha coombs at target in fairfield, new jersey. we will see you later on. when we come back, it may be a shortened trading day, but still plenty of opportunities to make money as bertha just told us, shoppers are looking for deals this black friday. we will bring you news you can use and tip its for when you should buy certain popular items like apparel and electronics as examples. and apple struggling to get the newest iphone out to consumers. we have a live report from china.

a major supplier is fangci issues we have a very busy hour when "worldwide exchange" returns after this break automatically adjusts.our d save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. ends cyber monday.

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there are very few things this world that can get you into the holiday spirit like being in midtown manhattan, new york city, right around 30

rockefeller center with the tree and ice rink and everything else that is what you are seeing right now. the headquarters for nbc universal. futures pointing to a moderately positive open ahead of the short trading day. stocks look to close the week with back-to-back winning sessions, maybe, following the dovish comments from the federal reserve meeting. is it too early to call a pivot or is there more pain to come? joining me now is chuck lieberman of advisers capital management chuck, i asked a number of folks out there over the last several weeks or months at this point if they thought inflation has peaked or is in the process of peaking. i'll ask you is the inflationary picture

cooled off >> yes, we have peaked the issue is how will inflation come down? how close can they get inflation to the 2% target that is a distant target it will not be so quick to get it down there. >> if that is the case, there is a mentality on wall street that you are looking toward the so-called pivot. the end of the rate hiking cycle and the fed could be more accommodative again down the line how much of a lag effect do you think there will be or how much of an anticipation buffer is between when people feel the pivot, so to speak, could happen and when they go in and buy stocks and put an up trend in place again? >> those are two very different things start off with the fed policy. certainly the fed is going to start to slow down the rate of rate increases

75 basis points at a clip will get you very far very quickly. that's too much at this stage. they are likely to go to 50 basis points at a clip and maybe 25 before they pause the fed does need to wait to see how the economy responds to all of the rate increases they already implemented. they need time to pass they need data to come in. it will take time for that to occur. i do fully expect them to slow down 50 basis points at the next meeting. problem anably another 50 aftert and they could potentially pause. then we will wait to see how the data performs. it will be a while before inflation comes down sufficiently i don't think we will see a rate decline in 2023 unless the economy really slips into recession. then they could respond to that. >> so if that's the case, there

has to be at some point an opportunity to present itself. is there an opportunity right now, and if so, where is it? is it in the interest rate sectors or technology? the beaten up sectors like tech? >> the way i put it is i think it is way too late to sell it might be a little bit early to buy when you look at the market, it is easy to find lots and lots of cheap stocks the stock market has come down a lot. more than 20% of the entire s&p now trades at single digit multiples. stocks are attractively valued you have to look across the valley the economy is not going to turn around tomorrow. it is likely to continue to weaken and needing to grow more slowly the question is will it dip into recession? it is premature to say that. it is more likely than not, but

until it occurs, you can't say rates have peaked or the rate increases are over or inflation is going to come down sufficiently to allow the fed to pivot policy >> all right chuck lieberman. thank you very much. happy thanksgiving have a nice weekend, sir. >> same to you, dom. still on deck for the show, answers to questions every black friday shopper will ask once today. should i buy now or wait for a better deal down the line? stay tuned you are watching "worldwide exchange" on cnbc. >> announcer: today's big number $260 billion that's how much gift card sales in the u.s. will total by 2026 according to forecasts from wallethub. up 40% from 2022

welcome back to "worldwide exchange." let's get a check of the headlines with phillip mena in new york >> the community of chesapeake, virginia spend the week in mourning six people were killed at the walmart and all employees. four others were wounded before the shooter turned the gun on himself. the 30-year-old worked at walmart since 2010 so far, no word on the motive.

the salvation army of savannah, georgia hosted a thanksgiving feast for hundreds of families. 250 people got a warm, home cooked meal complete with turkey and sides and dessert. children also got to enjoy arts and crafts organizers were thankful for the community to step up to make it a special day for so many families. now to the electric thanksgiving night cap >> beautiful stadium now open for the sevenfth year. doing a good job he gets free down the sideline he stays inbounds. to the 30. to the 20. he will score! >> what a look there all the way to the house making a thanksgiving feast out of the patriots with that run. that gave the vikings the spark they needed.

kirk cousins played lights out for minnesota. vikings win 33-26. advancing to 9-2 on the year a crowd pleaser on top at the national dog show. that is winston the french bulldog. winston came in second place at the westminster dog show that is one decorated pup. dom, back to you. >> just what this country needs. more popularity for the frenchies. >> he is a cute pup. >> thank you, phil apparapple's iphone supplier more issues. we have a live report coming up. and if you miss us, check us out on spotify or apple or your

podcast app of choice. we'll be right back. if you run a small business,

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the kickoff to the holiday shopping season is here. why black friday could just be the opening salvo for even deeper discounts in the days and weeks ahead. in china, a fast moving story as the country races to stay ahead of one of its biggest covid outbreaks on record. we are live in beijing with a report there. speaking of china, we take a closer look at what new

lockdowns could mean for apple and its already stressed out supply chain ahead of the key holiday quarter. it is black friday, november 25th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exc exchange" here on cnbc welcome back to the show i'm dominic chu in for brian sullivan kicking off this half hour is equity futures stable. you see the dow jones industrial average implied higher by 33 points s&p higher 3 points. nasdaq down by 5 very stable. a holiday short trading day today. in the bond market, yields are moving modestly slow on the 2-year treasury yield, we stand lower at 4.48% a slight tick higher in the

10-year treasury yield below 3.71%. 30-year treasury at 3.74%. let's hit oil prices up by 1% 2% for wti up $1.63 $7 $79.57 ice brent is $86.76 let's get to the headline was pippa stevens. and binance will devote $1 billion in initial commitments to the fund and it may increase it to $2 billion should the need arise. the ftc is set to file anti-trust lawsuit to block microsoft's $69 billion takeover of video game giant activision

blizzard according to politico, the regulator has yet to vote on action has received accept decisions from the ceo apple is considering buys man chechester united tim cook is interested in paying over $7 billion for the club which would make man u the most valued football club in the world. and amazon workers plan to walk off the job today demanding better pay and working conditions make amazon pay campaign is not isolated to warehouses labor actions are planned at the whole food stores and washington, d.c. dom. >> pippa, thank you very much. the kickoff to the holiday shopping season is here, but

while black friday is known for deals, early indications suggest steeper discounts on the way with 29 days and 18 hours and 30 minutes and 15 or so seconds until the christmas holiday. melissa repko has that story >> dom, we have seen a deep discount drum beat throughout the month of november. in the days to come, we're expecting to see discounts that go deeper. so far, adobe reported on categories that have been promotional. the leading one is toys. toys have been 30% off in the past few weeks some are not promotional one apparel. if you want holiday outfits, wait a few more days as we get closer to cyber monday >> okay. if we're looking at that chart, it shows consumer electronics and apparel with deeper

discounts coming why are the discounts deeper this year than over the last several years now? >> they are deeper for three key reasons. one is we saw unusually low levels of discounts a year ago because people were worried about out of stock and supply chain. this year, not only are shelves back in stock, but in cases, retailers are struggling with too much inconvventory they are trying to clear through. a lot of the categories that are promotional like electronics and computers, those are one withes that retailers have too much of. the third factor is they are aware that consumers are on the prowl for bargains so they want to entice them to the store or web sites they will be putting out the big bargains in the days ahead and beyond as christmas gets closer because they realize people are more price sensitive than the past two holidays.

>> melissa, before we let you go, obviously over the last several years or decades now, you have an increase of presence of online shopping as opposed to going in stores. we heard from bertha coombs that some retailers are not doing door busters at 4:00 a.m they are opening at the normal times. is the retail landscape changing because of covid and online shopping in. >> we have seen the deals become front and center on the web sites because people were shopping more from the couch and walmart started black friday deals at the beginning of november and all online and continued in stores. those are intensifying this week, it has been on their web sites and app. they know that's where people price compare between retailers. click around and click on something from a competitor.

that is why they feel pressured to put discounts on the web site >> i'm not going crazy i have been saying for days and weeks i've been doing discount christmas shopping into october. some people did not believe me look online. everybody said black friday two weeks ago. melissa repko, thank you very much we will stick with that story and the holiday spending outlook with jan rogers kniffen. i said welcome to black friday the truth is i have been doing black friday shopping the last two or three weeks now, jan. that is different from the years past why? >> wait, i'm going with things are back to normal we have too much inventory we have people coming back to the stores we will see penetration online that is been going on since

1999 this looks more normal to me than anything we have seen in the last three years at least in 2018 and 2019. people will go to macy's and they will go to dillard's. they will go to walmart and target we will see them shop. this will be the first year in a couple of years that i haven't said if you want it, you better go buy it now. it will not be there and it won't be cheaper well, this year, i would say you want to wait it will be there inconvventory is higher than the last two years there is more available product. the price will get a little better until we get closer and close tr to holiday yes, we are going to see what i would call a more traditional shopping day i bet it is a strong black friday i think it will be a strong saturday and sunday. we will see the lull like we see in shopping at the stores after

that then we see it pick up again versus prior years versus last year, yes, the deals will be better and availability will be better >> jan, how much of that is almost -- not complete, but relatively complete about face the last six-to-nine months, we have talked about supply chain problems we have reports that freight costs are on the decline because people are not shipping across the country. how did things change so quickly for retail >> containers are dramatically cheaper. ocean shipping rates are cheaper. now we have 20 boats sitting offshore instead of 120. we don't have the problems going on right now that has brought down the cost of moving the product. the product itself is not to produce which is going down, but the cost to move it will come down

the ability to get it here in a timely basis we saw a nightmare in the first quarter. all that merchandise showed up and people said that wasn't what i had in mind. we saw enormous discounting. we saw that continue in the second quarter it got better in the third quarter. the third quarter reports that came out just last week and week before were pretty good reports. people get the expectation across the board target was disappointing and they were sitting on tons of inventory. fourth quarter will look more normal than those three. we don't have a lot more inventory versus one and two, but the availability is better we will not see the nightmare we saw in the first and second quarters. >> jan, one thing that is transparent for many companies is the impact on profit margins we will see. we have been prepared as investors and trader ares and pe

in business news that discounts will happen. with that in mind, which retailers are best positioned to help preserve some of the profit margins despite promotional environment? >> they have us prepared they gave us guidance. we know what to see. we know it will be promotional macy's came out and said we are sitting on 4% inventory increase we're in good shape. you certainly think they will have a good holiday. dil dillard's is in good shape they will have a good holiday. walmart is gaining market share. then the guys at the upper end tapestry and lululemon and ralph lauren and food barn and tractor supply they will have a good holiday because that's where the consumer wants to shop and that top 60% of the economy, those

consumers, they still have money and they are spending it travel is 50% more, but they want new suitcases and new clothes and they are out buying them this weekend and right through holiday. gifting will be the number one gift is apparel and gift cards this year. we haven't seen that in a while. those businesses, upper end retail, will be good >> upper end retail. jan kniffen, thank you very much have a nice weekend. coming up on the show. new lockdowns in china as the country deal was the biggest covid surge in months. what it all means for apple's quarter and supply chain we've got that coming up next.

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." a developing story in china. covid-19 cases hit a daily record apple and foxconn look to avoid unrest in the plant dubbed iphone city. there were employee protests in violent clashes with security forces caught on camera and published to chinese social media. let's turn to eunice yoon who is joining us from beijing with latest there

eunice, there is frustration now increasing with the lockdown measures maybe not too understandable at all? >> reporter: very understandable more and more buildings in lockdown not only here in beijing, but around the country. the country has now hit a fresh high of reported cases nearing 33,000 for the first time. this is higher than when we saw the brutal lockdown in shanghai in april officially, they are tolerating the numbers. the lockdowns have been fierce and consistent in the chinese iphone city of shrks zhengzhou has been in lockdown

after the protests at the factory. the company foxconn has apologized for what it described as a technical error in worker pay which triggered the dispute. also the company offered $1,400 for departing recruits reports of 20,000 recruits decided to take that money and leave which really raises the question as to whether or not foxconn will meet internal goal to have that facility up and running by the end of the month. there have been reports that november output in the facility will be hit by at least, they said, 30%. apple the has said to people to that troubled facility and this all comes as the tightening curves in the country have been sparking of citywide shutdowns and here in beijing and sparking

pushback among the population. guangzhou has denied there is a citywide shutdown. we have heard that before in shanghai of course, we know the consequences of shanghai >> eunice, is there a sense right now and have business leaders in china now come to some realization about their frustrations about these policies will there be any change to the way they plan for or budget for business operations given the fact there will be increasing amounts of uncertainty or certainty around the fact the economy will shutdown with more covid cases on the rise? >> reporter: oh, i think that has been on the mind of business leaders for some time. just in the past two days, the european chamber of commerce spoken out yet again saying this inconsistency and especially now with the unofficial regulations

and shutdowns have created what they describe as a chaotic situation for business it is triggering people in boardrooms to figure out whether or not they will decide not to be inn vvesting as much in china one thing we have seen, dom, i have to bring up because it tells us the mindset of the chinese leadership that is the world cup has been playing, as you know, and chinese people have been watching itavidly. one thing is so many people there do not wear masks. what we see on state tv is the blurring of the audience when they show people wearing masks the leadership doesn't want to communicate to the public here that there are people out there in the rest of the world who have managed through covid and are no longer wearing masks and have higher level of freedom

than we do here in china >> for viewers and listeners out there. you know that in china, when we talk about such matters, eunice yoon and myself are typically blacked out. they don't want us talking abou that i have not heard about blurring out of world cup fans. we are all seen without masks and keunice, you are wearing on now. thank you, eunice yoon. and the factory in china is adding pressures on the iphone 14 the retail holiday shopping season and apple has been trying to increase sites at china and ship supply chain in asia as well for the iphone 14 nearly all iphones are made in china. let's talk more about this with sophie lund-yates.

so sophie, you heard eunice's report this is a key part of the world for apple. does this mean apple is possibly doomed to a supply constrained holiday shopping season? >> hi, yes i know we are sick of hearing this word. unprecedented set of circumstances. there are a couple of things playing and quite concerned with the january results that we will be getting firstly, the weakening of the consumer spending power. particularly in the u.s. that's a problem on its own. you look at the supply problems and by some estimates, it is looking up to 5% of iphone sales will be affected which will have, you know, a relatively big impact in terms of whether i would say the quarter is doomed, i don't think so i think it is going to be dented and difficult and it will be disappointing. i don't think we are looking at

a total derailment of the quarter. certainly the stock levels of iphones at retailers is low. that will hurt the top line. i don't think we'rie seeing derailment >> sophie, is this a derailment? if this is apple with a big brand presence and brand following and if people know their stuff is hard to find, will they just go out and clamor to get it if they can't get it now and the supply chains ease in the coming months is this deferral >> you hit the nail on the head. we are talking about the company with $19 billion last quarter alone. i don't think apple's scale dominance is going anywhere. i do think we could see an increase in people's willingness to try very, very hard to get

their hands on the latest phone. as you say, this news might not be good news that we're hearing about supply chain chaos it is very much in the domain and pr is pr i think you are right. i think people will clamor to get them the problem is availability. that is where the dent is happening. i don't think the brand is under any dispute. the asset is very much in touch. >> sophie, we are talking about a stock in apple that lost 15% of its value just so far this year that's better than many other tech companies out there it is still a decline. is apple still a company worth owning for investors in this kind of environment with supply chain issues and everything else >> this is a really important point and one i'm really keen to bring up that is applearle has been bettr

than mega cap tech appears in this circumstance, it is possible the downward pressure related to the ply supply chain issues is overdone apple dropped the share of iphone from foxconn to other areas. it can pivot some of that has been overdone that said, i do think the short-term will be volatile. >> all right sophie lund-yates, thank you very much. all right. "worldwide exchange" is back after this commercial break.

all right. what you are seeing right there is a live shot of deer park, new york at the tanger outlet. that is the nike store outlet malls could be a big

shopping experience for americans on this black friday that's the live shot in deer park, new york let's kick off the final trading day of the week. futures are indicated slightly higher dow implied higher by 50 points. we have jay hatfield joining us. jay, we spent time talking about retail because it is black friday this is a very important quarter and important set of weeks for retailers. how important is the retail and consumer story for any investment thesis in your mind right now? >> happy thanksgiving, dom thanks for having me on. we think that the consumer is relatively strong and will support the economy, but it is problematic in terms of investing in retail. it is a tale of two cities homeowners are doing well. 65% of americans tend to be

wea we wealthier. not affected by shelter. they have more wealth because they own their own homes 35%, the rest, is pressured. we think from a gdp perspective, retail is supported, but not necessarily great forever retail company out there. >> how much has been reflected in the markets, jay? the idea we have seen a pull back the last several months for the better part of this year is the market accurately reflecting what could be a weakening consumer environment in this country right now? i don't mean just for retail, but retail and consumer spending makes up the bulk of the u.s. economy. >> we think it is priced in. we think the u.s. is, by far, the strongest economy in the world. particularly we have an 80% cost advantage on energy. also, we have a very, very resilient housing sector and

auto sector. those are the two sectors that normally buckle under fed pressure we have a shortage normally where most of the weak consumer demand comes from is from unemployment. of course, we don't have anything approaching that right now. we think the economy will be quite resilient going into next year that's why we're bullish on both stocks and bonds throughout the year >> now within that stock market, there have been places beaten up way more than others given the rise in interest rates you look at places like technology and you look at places like real estate. those are very pressured right now. is it time to buy for any of the beaten up sectors? >> we think so we are more bullish about the decline next year than the guests you had on this morning the reason for that is the research shows a 5% bleed

through of energy price shocks to core. we think rates will steadily decline. we would be in sectors like you mentioned reits which have been smashed and over sold because of the increase in rates. if we have steadily declining rates with inflation coaling do coming down, a lot of reits and retail reits and hotels -- the more cyclical are oversold entertainment. we would focus on those. if the market rallies, tech will do well. we don't view tech as that interest rate sensitive. everybody thinks of it that way. it is a high beta sector if we are correct about rates coming down, then tech stocks will do well we don't focus on tech stocks. we have one tech stock right

now. we focus on the cyclicals and buy fixed income >> all right jay hatfield thank you very much. have a nice weekend. that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. markets indicated relatively calm open. markets close here at 1:00 p.m. eastern time have a happy thanksgiving and happy black friday good luck with the shopping. "squawk box" is coming up next senses your movements and automatically adjusts. save 50% on the sleep number 360 limited edition smart bed. ends cyber monday. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business:

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good morning china dealing with the covid surge. the government makes a move to stimulate the economy. we take you live to beijing for the latest. ready, set, shop black friday is upon us once again. will consumers get the bargains they are looking for and elon musk keeping busy

over thanksgiving. twitter now expected to launch the verified feature next week it's friday, november 25th and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman because joe kernen is off. we are back for a half day of trading. ahead of that, you see the u.s. equities are mixed dow futures are up 50 points s&p up 4 nasdaq off, but by 8