over thanksgiving. twitter now expected to launch the verified feature next week it's friday, november 25th and "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with andrew ross sorkin and steve liesman because joe kernen is off. we are back for a half day of trading. ahead of that, you see the u.s. equities are mixed dow futures are up 50 points s&p up 4 nasdaq off, but by 8 points. muted trading session so far in

the pre-market look at what is happening in the treasury market. yields are in the green. 10-year treasury up to 3.73% you have the 30-year treasury at 4.7% you have oil as well wti is $79.63. brent is8 $88 steve. and china is cutting bank rie requirements for the secreond te this year. the country is dealing with the covid surge. reporting a record number of cases on thursday. topping 31,000 the surge in cases as the country imposes more lockdowns and testing and putting more pressure on the economy and chances of chinese leadership easing up on zero covid policy

fades. we will have a live report from beijing later this morning becky. and in the meantime, elon musk is granting amnesty for suspended twitter accounts next week this is after a poll posted to his timeline and asked if he should grant amnesty to suspended accounts musk used the same method to decide whether or not to reinstate former president trump to twitter musk is set to relaunch twitter blue friday of next week with all verified accounts authenticated before granting a check mark i don't know what that means if you already have a check mark. do you lose it and wait for reinstatement? it would be difficult to do with fewer employees on the payroll here we go again. >> i'm interested in bringing back people with hate speech, becky. isn't there a "batman" movie

where the joker let's all of the criminals out of jail? if they come back, can they still do hate speech is it okay to do hate speech >> maybe this was a suspension and you get kicked off again andrew >> i don't understand using the the polls for this as you know, he has been compl complaining since the beginning that the platform is controlled by bots and fake users and influenced in all ways they shouldn't be it is hard to understand i think we knew what the outcome of the polls would be before the polls were made. i don't know what has happened if you remember the council he said he planned to establish i don't understand what it means with the advertising revenue i think the advertisers would say there is a governor or council that would look at this. it wasn't just one man putting

his finger in the wind he would say it is not one man putting his finger in the wind it is millions on the platform the question is who are the people and are those people real >> it feels like it will be an perm experiment again i have a tough time mustering up the desire to talk about it. i'm talked out with the twitter stuff. we will see what happens it is interesting. we pay a lot of attention to it because we're on the platform and we see it. i guess we will see what happens next week. i was dreading the thought of coming in here and talking about it i'm kind of sick of it >> i don't know. >> becky, this idea of bringing back the hate speech thing it felt like bringing back the former president and deal with that the hate speech is a real thing. >> my guess is he will not be able to allow hate speech to proliferate. they have to find a way to stop

it if they let people come back on and they continue it, they have to find a way to take them off. >> we don't have any information. he has a poll. the voice of people is the voice of god if the voice of god says bring back hate speech. >> are you surprised this is where we are >> i'm really surprised, becky i don't know what this guy is thinking at all. if you take this libertarian idea about this and you don't want to talk about it. you are done. >> we talked about it for so long it is a privately held company it is important. it is a obvvisible place. i hope hate speech doesn't come back you know, we will see what happens. we will see. >> okay. let's talk about cryptocurrency it is an important story twitter story and next story cryptocurrency binance

committing $1 billion to the recovery fund in the wake of the collapse of ftx which is seeking bankruptcy protection. check out cryptocurrency prices. you are looking at bitcoin i'm curious if it came back in your conversation during thanksgiving every other year, there is a crypto conversation emerged. historically when it has happened, it moves up. $16,474. ethereum at $1,1876. >> did you actually talk about it at thanksgiving >> always. always >> who was at your table just the kids. it did not come up at my table >> it came up at ours and they turned to me i have not been a crypto fan i don't think anybody who sells or buys crypto really understands what a currency is i think there's -- by the way, i

don't really quite understand what a crypto is i'm sort of ignorant on that score. i don't think people really understand what a currency is. i think you had people on last week, andrew, about the fed monetary policy. the fed implemented what it thinks to be, you know, a decent monetary policy and the dollar recovered and became very strong that call that somehow the monetary authority was going to let the currency twist in the wind with the inflation ended up being wrong. >> you can call it a security. >> security based on what? >> you can trade these things. >> you can trade anything. the issue of underlying value and that is connected to use i know there are specific uses of it. i don't know there is specific use that is unique to it that is not useable by the existing dollar system or the digital

dollar system. >> would you call it a commodity? >> i don't know what to call it. i have things i call it. not all of which are suitable for family television. >> andrew, what did you talk about at the thanksgiving table? what aspect came up? collapse of ftx? >> by the way, it goes to the issue that steve is talking about in some ways which is how decentralized is crypto and centralized is crypto and t ultimately a value for a central bank or country beyond that. you know, i've got kids. they have lots of interests in all of this stuff. that was the conversation. >> were there other adults at the table or just the kids >> we're kids. kids table the whole family is a kids table. we have more coming up on

"squawk box" this morning. we will talk about what is going on in the holiday shopping season some names you may want to add to the investing cart and check out the futures as we head to a break. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc dow is opening up 45 points higher back after this. >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

welcome back to "squawk box. microsoft fending on challenges this morning they are likely to face an eu investigation into the business practicing according to people familiar with the matter the potential probe stems from the complaint by salesforce.com which owns slack microsoft is accused of unfairly integrating its app teams into the widely used office suite slack wants microsoft to force the app to sell it separately. if that sounds familiar, it should this is the same thing that microsoft has gotten in trouble with before with regulators in how they bundle things and present it to the world. >> and microsoft's other challenge from u.s. regulatregus the ftc is likely to sue to block the company's $69 billion takeover of activision

the commission has yet to take action on the decision lawyers are said to be skeptical that the deal is not anti-competitive and activision-blizzard said it is absurd to think it leads to competitive issues. let's talk about black friday it is in full swing as best buy and big lots and kohl's opened to start the shopping season and 6:00 a.m the same time as "squawk box" started. we have dana back with us. great to see you dana, when we used to do this, you used to have already been to all of the malls you would tell us -- now half of the places are not open anymore during thanksgiving. what are the indicators you are looking at right now >> exactly, andrew great to be with you

overall, i'm looking at this holiday season being about in-person shopping opening later. opening at 6:00 a.m. we have more promotions this year than last year. it's a world of difference i'm looking to see the pro promotions as we go forward. i think it will be more traditional season christmas is on a sunday people will wait until the last ten days last year, goods were off the shelf early. everyone knew you could not get merchandise. today, we still have although retailers moved inventory in the second and third quarter, there is still a lot more to go through. everyone is looking to end up clean as you enter 2023. what does clean mean inventory increases in line with sales increases. we have too much we have to move it it is coming at a discount it is a big discount there is value for consumers out there. >> okay. that is the news you can use i have to get online or get online or outdoors online on

online on the computer and figure out what to buy in terms of mix. we talked so long about the period with fashion was dead and fashion was buying an iphone the pandemic everybody bought an iphone or computer and wear all new clothes. how do you see this playing out this season? >> i think overall, look what you just talked about. thanksgiving with families and kids people are going to events they hadn't been able to celebrate in two years what is selling now? footwear is selling. all of a sudden, everyone needs new shoes. apparel is selling you see more dress up. that is something you hadn't seen in two years because everyone was in cozy and comfort. that's the shift the other thing selling since everyone is traveling, luggage they are buying luggage because they are going places.

>> when you think about the luxury space, it used to be the one space that was untouchable people would pay through the nose for just about anything then the fast fashion piece of it then there was the discount fashion piece of it. in this economy, whenever you think this economy is, which one is the winner this time? >> i mean, brands and value work luxury is still working. luxury increases are not as great as last yeefar you can't go up against the increases and get the same increases. luxury is still up it is not up as much as last year it is brand value. what tjx is doing with tj maxx is brand and better deals. given the lower to middle income which is more stressed given the daily living expenses, they are

looking torefor deals. >> dana, it is good to talk to you. we have been doing this i don't know how many years. it is fantastic. here is the thing. everybody freaked out when target came out and below expectations and everybody concerned about the consumer do you think that is a unique story or broader concern about the cretail concerned about the con consumer >> you have a lot of what target said which is impacting others i thought one of the interesting numbers is the high strength i'm hearing that across the board almost every retailer is concerned about shrink more people are putting dollars in security than ever before i think the target numbers and how walmart did versus target, target has some items unique to them, but overall a cautious con

si consumer we would not have the pholiday season if you didn't have the many impact of target i think target and walmart talk about overlays the industry. >> dpana, i know it is not your space, but it gets into retail broadly. during the pandemic, people were fixing up homes and home depot and lowe's were big winners. furniture makers bed, bath & beyond which wasn't a winner, but should have been how do you think of that space and money going there this season >> i think the whole home furnishings sector is less this season than last year and the year before. all of us have upgraded our home offices. everyone got new chairs.

i think there is more of a focus of spending on yourself and looking good rather than the home the dollars awarded to the home. the wallet share is going to personal even cosmetics look at ulta i think the pro part of the business is still working. remodelling is being done. decoration is more moderate this year than the past two years >> okay. we're talking broad trends i want to go micro for investors out there who have money in some of the companies or thinking about it who are the winners? just as importantly, who are the losers in terms of management of how the businesses are walking into this holiday season >> i think overall one of the winners that typically always does well during the holiday season and frankly surprised in the third quarter is bath & body works. you walk a shopping center on black friday, that's where you

see the lines. macy's and the department store sector has improved assortment i think they improved the promotional intensity of what they are doing and they have done a better job. i think ulta on cosmetics. people are going out and i think that wins. what i worry about and the concern is midtier inventory levels you look at the mid-tier with kohl's and gap a lot of companies are searching for new leadership when you are in the time period where you don't have the game plan as in the past, there is more uncertainty there i think strong leadership and ability to manage the inventory with value and brands. that's winning for holiday 2022. >> okay. one final name for you i'm shocked it hasn't come up yet. amazon what do you think? >> i think amazon, i think

people are going out they are shopping online, but sales growth is lower than the past two years i think people want the social experience of being together and see what is working. the touch and feel convenience matters. amazon's got that all the way. i think the stores are coming back in 2022 >> dana helping us kickoff the holiday season happy thanksgiving to you. >> happy thanksgiving. great to see you guys. >> thanks. becky. thank you, andrew. when we come back, warren buffett giving away more of his fortune. we have details for you next. by the way, it is black friday p and for those of you wo have shaken off the turkey slumber, there is early mall traffic out there. this is the live view at w rkevelt field in long island, th ey don't look peppy, but they

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welcome back warren buffett donated more than $750 million to family charities this week. s.e.c. filing show the invinvesr gave shares to the susan thompson foundation. he gave class b shares for his companies to his children. since 2006, buffett has been making donations to the four charities and bill and melinda gates foundation

the gates foundation is not included in the latest gift. buffett telling me about the donation on thanksgiving eve was not coincidence in terms of timing he is thank oful for her childrn i have a personal pride of how my kids have turned out. this is the ultimate endorsement in my kids and ultimate statement that my kids don't want to be dynastiaclly wealthy. he will give away 99% of his wealth and says this is him doing what he always said he would do, but did want to point out he feels great about his kids and job they have been doing. giving away the money, the job he didn't want to do >> how much more is there to give away? is he on track >> over $100 billion. >> he has to do that 100 more times? >> the donations he gives are

separate $1 billion. >> on top of that? >> while he has been doing the billions, the money is piling up if you live to 92, the last 20 years matter in terms of how much wealth accumulates. this is the power of the long runway and why you invest, put away early and as much >> he keeps making money >> yeah. >> he has more and more to give away >> he has it in berkshire shares if you save it and a long-term investor, it is is back to ben franklin the last 20 years make a huge difference he is 92 and still going the money keeps growing and compounding. >> is his portfolio -- this is a crazy question it is not the portfolio you would have for a typical 92-year-old. it's not fixed income.

he is out there. >> yeah. b berkshire. he is somebody who has preached to the masses about the idea you don't want to be in bonds p. you are losing money if you are not fully invested in stock. he preaches that every year. that's why i'm fully invested in stocks listening to him. >> you have no bonds >> no. >> i just bought bonds. >> by the way, stocks. mutual funds >> of course >> that and comcast. >> i bought bonds. i thought 470 was a nice number for cash i had lying around and other stuff. >> by the way, i do own bonds. i own ibonds. the only inflation bonds >> we will get to the rest of rebecca quick's portfolio. >> i own some bonds. ibonds >> it sounds like a good one coming up, china covid

surge. country dealing with lockdowns and more testing how much of an impact will this have on the world's second largest economy. we will have a live report from beijing after this break "squawk box" is coming right back >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure -ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we are live here on cnbc take a look at futures right now on this -- not thanksgiving. the day after thanksgiving dow jones industrial average up 55 nasdaq off 6 s&p up about 6 points. we will talk about china which is impacting all of this becky. thanks, andrew china reporting a record number of covid cases on thursday as beijing imposes more lockdowns let's get to eunice yoon who skr joins us from beijing. the record number of cases which is something unusual and unique to what you have seen to this

point. >> reporter: yeah, this is a record number of cases it is nearly 33,000 which, of course, is very tiny in global terms. most of them are asymptomatic. it appears the leadership is tolerating this higher number. unofficially, we are seeing more frequent and inconsistent lockdowns and quarantines as well as shutdowns of businesses. the chinese iphone city of guangzhou is in lockdown it is mostly locked down until tuesday after violent protests rocked the foxconn fa cility there. it accounts for 70% of global iphone shipments and iphone 14 models the company said it is apo apologizing for the error in

worker pay which triggered the protests there foxconn has been offering $1,400 for departing recruits apple sent in staff and is working with foxconn to address some of the employees concerns there are still many questions as to whether or not foxconn is going to be able to meet the internal goal to have that facility back up and running as operating normally by the end of the month. now, outside of zhengzhou, the lockdowns and other shutdowns hit other cities, including beijing. there is a fear we could see a citywide shutdown and push back by the population. the city of guangzhou denied that it will have a citywide shutdown because we heard the denials by city officials frequently over

the past several months and into the past year or so, which then is followed by what is described as silent period or shutdown, people are worried about what could be happening next. one other thing i want to bring up with you guys which is an interesting development. the world cup has been playing here on state tv as well as various channels what we are starting to see is the audience being blurred the way things are shown is that there are not as many picturings pictures of people in the audience wearing masks people here have been asking and complaining on social media about how people outside of china seem to be not wearing masks and not worry so much about covid and raising questions as to why that would be interesting that we're starting to see the audience getting blurred. >> eunice, from here, it kind of

feels like this could be the beginning of the end of zero covid whether they like it or not. if it is spreading and you get to these levels, we know how it plays out in other areas years ago because of how it spread through the world is there an expectation it may be does it feel like that there or if you are worried if you have enough food to eat if you get locked down? >> reporter: it feels different compared to three years ago. one of the fears, i think, we have been hearing about is the idea that it could either be a tipping point where suddenly zero covid goes away or at a point where the government decides that they don't want that to happen and go back to how things were back in the early days of the pandemic and we will see more severe crackdowns and more repression

there is a difference in terms of the way the population thinks back in early 2020, i think we saw the brutal lockdowns and people were more willing to go along with it because they were feeling this is a mysterious virus and go with the government and the population is used to the idea of having the government in their lives. that is a big difference from today where you are seeing more people questioning and more people wondering what is going on there is so much discussion these days over the world cup. just because it is in our faces that everybody out there is not wearing a mask they seem to be moving on with covid. that just hasn't been the case here a lot of people questioning zero covid these days >> eunice, thank you very much eunice yoon. we'll talk to you soon all right. check out apple shares we will dive deeper in the stock performance in the next hour coming up next, a few hours

away from the opening bell a holiday short session closing at 1:00. still talking about the markets. reminder, you can watch or listen to us live anytime on the cnbc app is it possible the only thought that comes to mind is... ♪ finally? this is financial security. and lincoln financial solutions will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪

welcome back, everybody. happy black friday day after thanksgiving we hope you had a wonderful

holiday with your family we hope you are feeling up to it today. look at the markets. we are open until 1:00 p.m in the pre-market, you see a bit of mixed action. dow futures up 50 points s&p futures up 4.5 nasdaq futures down 14 at least for now joining us to talking markets ahead of the last day of the short trading week is zachary hill head of horizon investments. i see from your notes you think the market is, perhaps, a little too optimistic about where the fed is going and wrong to take much of a dovish message from the minutes last week? >> that's right, steve thank you for having me this morning. we have been doing this a few times this year where investors are operating in the old model where the fed has your back and first signs things slow down or markets get too rocky, financial stability eaticks up and they ee

off policy we have done it. this is the third time this year where we have seen the big pivot in markets that is what we see going on this time. >> you have the phrase which i like choose your own narrative. i have a phrase. the dorothy trade which is they want to click their heels and go back to kansas when i say kansas, the time when the fed was 1% or 2% funds rate. i just don't see that happening down the road. i think folks have to settle in and look for a world where the funds rate is both positive and higher and not emergency levels for the foreseeable future >> that is right the one thing we have been thinking about and guided our thinking this year is not just where rates are today versus inflation that matters, but completely out the interest rate

curve. chair powell talked about that bull bullard talked about that. we think there is more work to be done unfortunately for investors. >> you had said this is the third attempt right now. we're in the middle of right now in trying to trade peak inflation and the last two times people have been disappointed at the end of the trade they made a little money in the short-term and medium-term will they be disappointed especially with powell speaking next week? >> i think so. that is something we are watching closely we have the end of the fed communication period ahead of the december meeting and december cpi report coming up at the end of the next week watching what chair powell has to say on wednesday is more than he has been clear in terms of what he has said it is clear there is a little bit fragmentation with the fed

in communication in times like this, you know, we pay attention to who has been leading policy that is chair powell >> let's make this deeply personal becky doesn't own bonds. >> i own ibonds. >> she is all in on stocks what is the right thing to do -- >> by stocks, i mean the s&p 500. >> okay. we got that. what should she be doing talk to becky. don't talk to me. >> becky, i didn't know i would give opinions on this this morning. >> don't worry i'll not listen. >> fixed income is more attractive as we sit here today, you have to be cautious about near-term markets. we don't know how long the fed will be keeping interest rates at a really elevated and restrictive levels i think based on your comments earlier in the 15% rally we have

seen in the s&p 500 that we do think this is a great time to be rethinking portfolio allo allocations. especially on the equity side of things equity multiples are not i inexp inexpensive. we are not even to 20-year averages old adage of markets, they rarely stop at average that is how we think about things and that is guiding the conversations we have with clients. >> zach, thank you very much for your thoughts. zachary hill >> thanks, zach. >> thank you when we come back, are you ready to hit the slopes? i know andrew is we're going to get an early read on the ski season as more travelers get away for the upcoming holidays. reminder for you you can get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. follow us on your favorite podcast app and you can listen to us anytime. we'll be right back. stick around

welcome back the holiday travel surge is here i don't know that it's ever left it's been here since last year people are packing the airports and the roads and some are kick-starting the ski season let's bring in mike. mike, it looks beautiful behind you. how is the snow so far >> it's a beautiful day in killington, vermont, becky. >> how are things going so far how would you gauge your bookings at this based on what you saw last year and maybe what you saw prepandemic? how do things play out. >> business has been really strong we've been really trying to grow into a year-round resort

this summer, mountain bike visits hit an all-time weather as well as weddings. and winter has been really strong sales strongs and bookings are great. we're really optimistic. >> when you say strong, stronger than last year and 2019 when we saw covid? >> yes, we're comparing to 2019 where we dipped some during covid. we're optimistic things are looking great >> what are people looking for when they get there? is this a group that's willing to spend money we hear that people are being squeezed by inflation, are these who are coming and wanting to spin because they haven't been on vacation in forever or are these people who are coming love skiing and are trying to pinch pennies. >> people are still trying to save money the good thing for us is typically good snow kind of outweighs what's happening in

the economy. i think for us, we have the world's largest snow-making system we have deliver great products people are happy to spend when they get here which is great from their business. >> mike, for those of us who spend a lot of time on the snow and i'm one of them and i have passes, i got -- i got epic passes and i've also got icon passes can we talk about what the passes have done to the slopes and what you think they're going to do to the slopes this year? for awhile, it was a great thing. it was a great thing for both the user and the mountain. and then as you've seen at a lot of mountains, it's gotten pretty crowded. that's great for you, less great for the consumer how do you think that balances out ever and why that happens? >> i think it's a tough balance. i think for us we're -- killington is privately owned. those dynamics in the market we think are a competitive advantage. we're able to provide a really

great product. we're not really seeing that crowding issue at killington for a large resort we're able to move people around the mountain we think of it as a positive for our business >> have you heard in terms of what you're guessing in terms of how much you can pack on this year, how do you figure the metrics behind it in terms of what you sell for the annual passes and what you can do in terms of how many day passes you sell where's the majority of the sales? >> we're pretty even in terms of season pass and that's been simpler. and i think we're seeing people that are going to other mountains and sometimes it's a little too crowded and they're coming to killington one of the advantages, we have 29 lifts and a lot of trawls we can move people around and that's really helping our business the trends in the business are strong people are still spending and we haven't seen any of the downturns that you've been

talking about both mornings. >> can i ask how you compete with out west right now? do you have a way of marketing or otherwise competing a lot of people, they feel like they have more reliable snow out there. tell me a reason why i should book my vacation up in vermont rather than going to utah? >> i don't know. have you gotten on a plane lately that's the best answer for us. people can drive here and we have an amazing snow-making system so we can deliver some really amazing product. going out west is also a great product. we think we have a competitive advantage in the east and our business has been strong west has had great skiing for years and we'll continue to do great. i think a lot of people want to ski and maybe go out west for a trip as well >> and just in terms of the winter, what are you anticipating obviously all of these ski resorts to a certain extent, if you're looking for -- for anybody who is going to be a day

skier, those sales are entirely contingent on what happens with the weather. where do you look? are you looking at the farmer's almanac or other sources >> figuring out the weather, that's a tough one for us, we try to control what we can control which is sometimes hard we've been in this business a long time and i think having a really strong snow-making system is key we've had ten days straight of really cold temps and be expanding quickly. you can see behind me, we're setting up for a big world cup race we have the best racers in the world coming in tomorrow and sunday and mikaela shiffrin will be here sunday hopefully to win for the sixth time. >> i think it's going to be a beautiful day. i want to thank you for your time really good to see you. >> thanks for having me. come visit. >> we will andrew >> thanks. coming up, we're going to have today's market movers and

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good morning, everybody. the black friday rush is on. we're going to take a look at what retail names should be on the investor's wish list this holiday season binance is looking to keep the crypto industry afloat following the ftx fallout. we have the details straight ahead. and, by the way, remind me if you've heard this story before also, new lockdowns in china as total daily covid cases soar we'll get a live report from beijing. the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc. i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and steve liesman, a day after thanksgiving joe is off it's nice to see both of you once again u.s. equity futures on this shortened trading session ahead

of the market opened this morning, dow looks like it would open up 45 points higher the s&p 500 up 2 1/2 points there. the nasdaq looking to open down 25, 26 points. show you treasury yields we're looking at the ten-year note sitting just at about 3.722 and then the two year note sitting at 4.488 when you think about the oil complex. wti crude, a barrel will cost you $79.73 that's up a little over -- 2.5% this morning a little crypto as everybody tries to digest the aftermath of the ftx collapse and what it means and whether there's going to be more ripple effects. bitcoin is sitting at $16,523. >> let's get to dom chu with a look at this morning's premarket

movers some rain today but good weather. you got an appointment on the course today >> i do not because i will be covering the news desk until 1:00 this afternoon. we'll wait and see if the weather factors in i'm sure my family will want to do some shopping we're seeing activity to your point here on other things stock-wise in the premarket, but they're thinner in terms of volume today we are seeing action in shares of activision, blizzard. they're down about 3.5%. a report just a couple days ago from "politico" saying that microsoft's proposed bid to buy the video game publisher could face antitrust scrutiny. the report saysthat a lawsuit challenging the potential deal is not guaranteed but shares moving on the headlines. we're also seeing action in shares of apple. down fractionally premarket.

140,000 shares of volume the iphone maker could see a 30% hit to its iphone production due to supply chain issues at one of its biggest manufacturing facilities run by foxconn. covid lockdowns, the hit could take a bit out of apple's all-important holiday season we're watching apple shares and end on a check of other stocks as well, on the heels of some of the headlines out of china we are seeing u.s.-listed shares of big tech companies like jd.com and alibaba down 2% we are seeing some of the big macau centrics, operators of casinos, not seeing as much of that impact because of those covid headlines. we'll keep a close eye on that like i said, a lot of thin trading volumes. we'll see whether or not there's

any kind of fundamental reason why these stocks are diverging the way they are. >> i can't get this china story out of my head i'll tell you my thinking on this which is it was thought the chinese regime was brutal, dictators, but they were smart now i feel like the idea is they're brutal, they're dictators and they're dumb this whole covid thing, the idea that now apple is building a new facility in arizona, i don't know what percent, i think there's still a small percentage but they're not a good place to do business. this covid lockdown thing they're doing as not helped them at all if they were showing me that they were having better results, people were healthier and it was -- but there's no reason for it >> they could argue that they've seen better results. we lost a million people to covid. but the problem is, you can't control this for forever and they have not taken the time that they bought themselves with

the lockdowns to get a vaccine out that's effective or do anything along the lines to prepare the hospitals. i would agree that they haven't used the time accordingly. as a result they've been trapped in a holding pattern and now they're going to have to deal with what the rest of us dealt with all along anyway. >> i keep looking at this as a key way to understand the inflation dynamic in this country. china is the supplier and china understands the economics of what's going on these days has been this kind of rubber band of supply and inventory china opens up, we get inventory, china closes down, there's no inventory it's not the only reason i think about this stuff but you want to understand when are we going to normalize supply chains. >> i think the bigger issue is, supply chains are not going to go back to what they were. this is the new normal and what you're seeing happen is companies that are finding all new ways to get sourcing out of

china so they're not so reliant on that and that's not going to go back. everybody realizes -- >> does china get that first of all, this is an idea that was brought forward a couple months ago, we're reorganizing supply chains for security, not for efficiency that means, by the way, a permanently higher price >> yes, higher costs that are coming in, but you cannot be so heavily reliant on one place because it's a national security issue. >> especially when it comes to defense issues. >> even in the united states how patterns have changed. i was reading last week about the east coast ports, particularly new york and new jersey is now doing more traffic that the california ports. once people figure out a work-around and they start bringing to east coast ports, that's a hard habit to break. >> the backlog at the west coast

ports is cleared now i think that's the more efficient way to do it can i rely on it if i bring the ship there, is my stuff going to get across the country. >> it's all interesting points it's all new territory >> i don't know if china understands what it's dealing with here, that people are going to reorganize and they're going to lose business because of it. >> they may be realizes it at this point which may be why you're seeing less stringent authorities. when apple comes in and says we're not getting what we need, that's a wakeup call. >> we have eunice coming up a couple more times in the show. we want to talk markets ahead of today's shortened holiday season joining us now is gregory branch greg, let's talk a little bit about what the big issues are facing the markets we know that the fed has raised interest rates by 75 basis points four times in a row i think we're probably anticipating that it might be 50 basis points this time around,

is that what you think first up? >> i think we need to get a little bit more data before we wade through that. the market thinks it's 50 basis points we have the cpi coming before they have to make that decision and i think that that will influence their decision a great deal i would be surprised to be another 75 basis points particularly if we don't see another -- like we saw for november and given some of the areas that led to that 7.7% for october, i wouldn't be surprised if we saw something a bit higher than that airline fares have picked up used car prices may have trended down i wouldn't be surprised to see housing tick up a bit. i'm not certain that we'll see a further abatement of inflationary pressures in the next two reports that we'll get and, therefore, i'm not certain that we'll see 50 basis points >> let me pause at this, though.

the market has run up significantly. people are anticipating this pivot from the fed whether or not you get 50 basis points, though, it's not really the fed pivoting they may be toning things down, turning down the heat a little to wait and see what happens with the inflationary number but they're not pivoting and walking the other direction. they have been pretty clear that they're going to keep rates higher for longer than the market has been anticipating i guess my question is, if that's the case, even if we get a 50 basis point hike the next time around, is the market gain warranted? do you expect to see additional gains from here? >> i don't think it is at this point. and what i think is happening is the market is basing a bet right now on 2023. and so we're looking at 2023 and right now earnings growth is anticipated by consensus to be about 6% and that's down from the 10%

earlier in the year, down from 8% from two months ago but in my view, it's still too high when you take a look at the fourth quarter we've gone down from 10% expectation of earnings growth to negative 2%. and so the market is clearly betting and consensus is clearly betting that the fed will, in fact, take the foot off the gas and we won't see a significant slowdown in order to have 6% earnings growth next year. and i think that view is going to be proven wrong and that will be the case if the fed is going to get to a terminal rate of 5% by early next year. i think that will -- that causes a significant slowdown and we'll see that the estimates are too high and we'll see -- that, i think, will take air out of the sales of the market theory and a consensus theory that we're going to see a more dovish fed in the coming months based on a significant abatement in inflation in the next couple

reports. >> greg, you just made me think that december 13th could be the mother of all volatility days. let's say we go in -- and you're shaking your head. you go in with the market priced for 50, you get a lousy inflation report that morning, the whole thing -- the whole equity complex has to re-adjust to a potential for 75. is that what you're saying >> that is exactly what i'm saying and i think we've seen that happen a couple of times, right? we saw that happen in august we saw that happen in october. mid-october after we had a mild rally in the first week of october. i think this one is probably going to be even more volatile because at the end of the day we're looking at that 2023 and all of our estimates and numbers will turn to that in the next month or two and so i think that that's exactly right. i think this is somewhat binary.

>> i just got pushback a little bit that i think it has to be a very bad inflation report for the fed to do 75 i think it's possible what greg is talking about but i think the benefit of the doubt is going to be on that 50. >> a 50-point hike is significant when you add it up to the 300 basis points they've already done. >> even if greg is wrong that a lousy inflation report creates a 75, it's still going to change the outlook and the trajectory he's right in that respect. >> greg, thanks. we'll see you soon. >> any time, guys. >> bye we are going to talk about ftx. will customers of ftx ever see their money again? latest in the firm's fallout and what it means for the crypto complex next and the countdown to christmas is on. we'll talk about the retail landscape and so much more "squawk box" coming right back

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welcome back to "squawk box" this morning binance announcing new details about its industry recovery fund which aims to keep the crypto sector afloat amid ftx's collapse they will devote a billion

dollars in initial commitments to the fund and may increase that to 2 billion should the need arise the next guest says the entire industry faces a reset the latest collapse is only part of a shift from the ideals that the industry was built on. executive director of global content for coin desk. what do you mean by that >> bitcoin was invented precisely to prevent this. and the idea was that this was supposed to be decentralized, transparent and reduce the need for too much trust in one individual or company. and now we've had basically the implosion of ftx which had this larger lan life leader, of course, this does not represent bitcoin. this has nothing to do with bitcoin the cryptocurrency but the ideals on which it was founded have been completely --

just completely undermined due to recent events. >> i couldn't agree with you more if the whole idea was about creating trust in an otherwise trustless system, the technology was the thing you trusted, how could something like this happen when you think about the sort of follow on impacts, the domino effects, lots of questions about genesis, about what out means to the rest of barry's various businesses, for example, how that impacts so many others and then where binance is in all of this, what do you think we're going to be seeing here? >> you know, i don't think the story is far from over what we've seen is that there's been a domino effect and there's basically -- ftx had so many different loans and investments and investors and, you know, we're starting to see, yeah, a domino effect of companies that were affiliated with ftx now suffering the repercussions of this implosion so i have a feeling there will

be more to come. we don't know exactly where it's going to hit there have been surprises thus far. in terms of binance, binance now is saying that they have a recovery fund. what's interesting is that binance is taking a page out of it was it was's playbook if you remember until recently, ftx and sam bankman-fried were seen as saviors of the industry. a lot of firms have been struggling and sam came in and he was a white knight of the crypto industry and now you have binance stepping up to the plate the problem is is that i would argue previously in crypto, you have this problem where you have two companies that were overly powerful again, this is not a great look for decentralized industry now, you're down to one which is binance. i think we should still have that same kind of skepticism

about letting one company become so powerful in an industry that is not supposed to be dependent on any specific player. >> emily, for the crypto ignorant, can you put the billion dollars in context is that a lot of money is it a little bit of money? what are the terms are they coming in as kind of like vultures to scoop up things that are cheap or is it providing aid to the industry? >> of course, binance is saying that they're providing aid to the industry and they're not doing this alone they're doing this with other industry players again, i think we have to look more at this sort of symbolism of this and the fact that we do have a so-called white knight coming in and you see a lot of media portraying it that way it's not that binance is portraying it that way and i think the danger here -- to answer your question, yes, it is a lot of money in the world of crypto seeing how many billions of dollars that have vanished over the, you know, the

past few weeks, maybe it's not so big in the grand scheme of things it's a significant amount of money. the symbolism here, one player taking on such an importance and taking on this sort of role of savior is something that i think we should all be skeptical about. what happens if binance has a problem. who is going to bail out binance. this is a reason for just general -- the crypto should be looking at with general concern. >> emily, the other piece of this is the regulatory one there's a lot of folks who say the whole business is going to be regulated and some people say that's a good thing. there's another side that says actually this is evidence that this is an industry that's almost impossible to regulate properly if so many of these exchanges and players are living offshore anyway and what you have to do to incentivize them to be on shore with tokens and coins you're not sure you believe in to begin with creates it's own conundrum

>> ftx was based in the bahamas. there is ftx u.s., but ftx itself is not a u.s. company it is now in the crosshairs of u.s. prosecutors for various reasons. first of all, ftx filed for bankruptcy in the u.s. u.s. prosecutors could go after ftx, for example, for using customer funds like lending them out or using them to fund risky bets in another company. they could go after them for wire fraud which is making false statements but your point is true, it's difficult for the u.s. to regulate a company that was never in the u.s. in the first place. now, clearly regulators are -- people are saying, okay, we needed to get -- we need better regulation i think in terms of the united states one of the biggest criticisms of u.s. regulation has not the so much been that there isn't regulation in the u.s. because there is some as far as crypto is concerned the problem is, it's not necessarily clear. it's very confusing, there's a lot of different agencies that

r regulate crypto and over the past years there has been talk because of this confusion and because people don't know what's allowed, some companies have gone offshore because they don't want to deal with the confusion of u.s. regulators and don't want to get in trouble forsomething they don't understand by making u.s. regulations clearer, easier to follow, you could potentially get more exchanges to be based here and more regulated and not feel the need to go offshore and also not how -- not allowing an offshore exchange like ftx to become a such a big player. in addition to regulation, the industry -- so many different players enabled ftx. the media kind of pumping them up, investors. i mean, i think why were so many investors -- i think it was the "new york times" who said it was

something like 80 investors, $2 billion over two years. why weren't investors asking harder questions even with regulation, there's a lot more that needs to happen to prevent this kind of thing going forward. >> thank you for joining us. happy thanksgiving thank you. >> happy thanksgiving. thank you. fascinating conversation coming up, we have our finger on the pulse of the consumer on this black friday. what stores are hot? what stores are not? a list of the top retail performers over the last five years is next. check out the futures right now. where are we we were up just a little bit down on the nasdaq but up a little stronger on the dow jones and the s&p. "squawk box" is coming right back. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. according to the national retail fedder ration, how many people are expected to shop tayod the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues

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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. according to the national retail federation, how many people are expected to shop today

the answer, 115 million people 67% are expected to head to stores up from 64% last year warren buffett donated more than $750 million to his family charities this week. it happened on thanksgiving eve. the billionaire investor gave 1.5 m 1.5 million berkshire hathaway shares to the foundation he gave 300,000 shares by the foundations run by his children. this is something that he's been doing since 2006, giving annual -- giving annual gifts to these four charities and the bill and ma len da gates charity. he said very intentionally that this was something he did on thanksgiving eve because he is thankful for the job his children have been doing

i spoke with him and he told me, i got a personal pride in how my kids have turned out i feel good about the fact that they know i feel good about them it's the ultimate statement that my kids don't want to be wealthy. he said for a long time he's going to give away for decades and decades, he said, most of his wealth for over a decade he told us it would be 99% of the money he's earned through his berkshire shares when he doles it out like this, he's trying to get rid of it he has more money after this gift, more than a hundred billion dollar in berkshire shares and that's more when he started giving away in 2006. it's a hard problem. >> he can't do it. he's making too much money. >> can i raise a thorny issue? >> sure. >> i think warren is understanding there's a value of giving away your money while

you're alive >> yeah, i think so too. >> i don't think everybody has sort of figured out. you get to see the joy on the face of the people who you give it to, people wait until they're gone to give the money away. there's another joy -- i had -- parents have different ideas about this. >> look, he held onto his money for a very long time and people criticized him early on that he wasn't giving money away decades ago like he is now. his point is that he was letting it compound. he wanted to have that compound so you could give away much more money. he and his first wife would go back and forth about it. i think he's realizing and even said when i spoke with him about this, because he's 92, there's a lot more money to give away. that last 20 years going from 72 to 92 is where you have seen this enormous growth and the amount that he's going to be able to give it away he doesn't believe in dynastic wealth when it comes to charitable foundations eventually that money is being

held onto by the foundation and they want to make sure they have enough money to pay for the salaries for everybody there and don't give it away, he wants to see this money given away. and they're giving out billion dollars of dollars. >> it's invaluable that you can give us insight into his thinking because you have warren so well. he's been a good friend for a long time. >> i have to do the tease here. >> please do >> i got it. still to come, will santa claus be coming to town for retail stocks a breakdown of the names you may want to add to your portfolio during this holiday shopping season one name that's on everyone's holiday shopping list, apple but there are some items that may not make it under the christmas tree we'll bring you the details. "squawk box" coming right back what if you were a global energy company? with operations in scotland, technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together.

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welcome back, everybody. right now it's time for an early read on the retail landscape as we kick off the holiday shopping season which stocks should be in your portfolio for this we have a look at some of the top performers over the last few years. this is our own version of black friday shopping here.

>> yes, it is. we have boots on the ground. i've got details on what's happening in the stores before we break down stocks show me the deals. many have started searching for the black friday deals in early november a week later than 2021 just over the last two years, the narrative is that consumers were worried about getting their gifts in time due to supply shortage and delays. this year, we have a glut. that's why people are waiting. they want the discounts. new data has walmart right now as the top searched retailer for black friday deals followed by target and kohl's. kohl's has seen a 1037% increase in searches dethroning amazon. last year amazon was number one on that list but what is it when we break it down as a category which ones are the top categories let's start with beauty. it's most expensive and doesn't go very often and we're all

returning to partying. but it tends to do well in tough times. the second category, tech, and the interesting here is activities and experiences this is according to them, it looks like people are buying more meaningful gifts. investors, we pulled data and looked at the performance of the s&p 500 and retail-related etfs from november 1st to new year's eve. just over the last foive years. and the average return during this time frame was just over -- actually, this is a little bit less 0.3% this etf didn't do as well during the same time frame but you have the xrt retail etf down this is over the past two-month period you can see if you were invested in the s&p 500, it's a little bit better than these two. and if you're looking at some

individual names that would be franchise group, they own vitamin group as as well as a few furniture stores, boot barn and nordstrom. they've seen a stock performance of 25% increase over the last five years >> christina, do you happen to have a breakdown on which products are most discounted right now? what do people have enough of? >> well, what are we seeing most discounted at the moment, it's toys the average discount is 30% off the listed price the -- the word right now is to wait for electronics cyber monday will be better for deals. the top three, "paw patrol," hot wheels, as well as the nintendo switch kitchen is doing very well that could be a sign that we're

eating at home or cooking for family and need new gear at home. >> thank you. >> thank you. for more, we want to bring in the ceo of jay rogers niffen wwe. we haven't seen a discount on toys in years because there hasn't been a supply of anything. >> one of the number one things for girl is arbie, and one of the number one things for boy is lego those are not high-tech gifts. so we're not -- >> barbie is older than i am >> yes, it is, actually. >> one of the few things. >> in any event, what we're seeing is on the toy side there's nothing that's really that hot and that new. and we're also seeing plenty of supply so, yeah, that's struggling a bit. we're also seeing a lot of

discounting in apparel because places like walmart and target are discounting it out specifically target. when you look at the rest of the business, we're seeing pretty good numbers out of all of these retailers that reported third quarter. they told us what was going to happen we're all prepared for the fourth quarter we know it's going to be promotional and lower gross margin, we're going to see a strong consumer if we see 8% growth and i think we will that will be flattish in units, but it wouldn't be flattish in apparel units because inflation is only about 4% we're seeing pretty good business in the consumer's mind right now. they're telling us, i'm going to buy apparel, buy gift cards, they didn't tell us apparel was their number one thing last year they did this year and we're also seeing what we just heard a minute ago, we're buying all kinds of stuff to go places but we're buying stuff to take

with us to those places. we may be paying 50% more for our plane ticket, but we're still buying luggage and all the clothes we need to stuff in that luggage to do what we're going to do, as well as all of the clothes for going out for parties for this holiday season. we weren't buying that last year either i look at it and say, we're back to normal. we're having promotions on black friday, people are going to shop on black friday. they're going to wait for some promotions later in the season like they did in normal years unlike last year and we're going to see some gross margin pressure in places with too much inventory. it looked like it's looked for the last 50 years. it was the last three years that were weird >> you are a fan of the department stores and i know that that is where you spent a lot of time in your career going through some of those. department stores have struggled for over a decade. you like macy's and dillard's right now. that's not to say that everybody is equal run through why you like them

and who you don't like. >> i think it's going to be a gift-giving season and i believe people are going to give real gifts as opposed to gift cards so where do you go for gifts you go to macy's and dillard's and they don't have the inventory problems i'm also high on walmart and costco because they're two of the greatest retailers and they're a place you go when inflation is hurting you and we saw that in the third quarter. i'm high on them beyond that, what i really like right now are strong brands. so if you're tapestry, lululemon, if you're nike, ralph lauren and into western, boot barn, and even tractor supply because paramount and yellow stone have made that category go to fire, man it's like crazy. >> hey, jan, i want to ask you a quick questions. have investors spent too much time thinking and looking at inflation and the effect on the

consumer and not enough time thinking about employment and the effect on the consumer and the fact that employment is law and that has been the better explanation for why consumer spending as done well rather than the inflation explanation >> the consumer has had a job and they kept their job. and so far, they're not afraid to lose their job, at least if they're not in the tech sector they have the ability to spend and they'll do that during holiday and they don't have their credit cards so loaded up they can't spin. we see rising credit, but it's not out of control at all. we're going to see them spend because they can the question is, will they finally become afraid for their jobs will the fed convince them that we're going to slow this down enough that you might lose your job. if that happens in 2023, we'll see them back off. they're not backing off for holiday. they say, i've got money, i've got spending capacity, i want to do things and i'm going to do it despite the fed.

>> that's right. >> it's let me to more optimistic views on the consumer and the economy. jan writes me every now and then to redirect my thinking. guess what, they have jobs and that's been the -- that's been a better theory. >> jan, thank you. i'm sure we'll see a lot of you this holiday season. take care. >> i'll be out there >> thanks, guys. we got a lot more coming up an "squawk" this morning sweeping new lockdowns as covid cases close in on record highs speaking of china, what new lockdowns could mean for apple during the holiday season. here are the futures take a look right now. dow up, rather, about 60 points. s&p 500 about five nasdaq off about 25. your own. make it easier on yourself. with shopify, you can have everything you need to streamline your shipping,

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♪ welcome back to "squawk. a developing story this morning, china expanding lockdown measures across the country as covid-19 cases hit a new daily record i want to get over to beijing where eunice yoon joins us with the latest. >> reporter: the reported case count is now close to 33,000 for

the country. the leadership appears to be trying to tolerate this higher number in line with its revised more precise, they say, covid -- zero covid strategy. unofficially, lockdowns, quarantines, business shutdowns are so much more frequent and inconsistent throughout the country, including here in beijing. in china's iphone city in central china, that city is now in mostly -- mostly in lockdown until tuesday and this comes after there were violent protests at the foxconn facility there which is a very important for the global supply chain. it makes 70% of the global iphone shipments including the iphone 14 models foxconn had said that its apologizing for what it describes as a technical error in worker pay which appeared to trigger those violent protests foxconn is offering $1,400 for new recruits that detpart and

they say they're working with foxconn to meet the employees' demands. there have been plenty of questions at this point as to whether or not foxconn is going to meet its internal end of month goal to have that operation up and running now, another concern, of course, is how the tightening covid curves are affecting the overall economy because not only are they there, but they're in various cities including beijing. in beijing, there's been a bit of a pushback and we're starting to see more of a trend, something described as connected dragon tax and this is where residents are starting to organize because of these unofficial lockdowns and are signing pacts where they are agreeing to push back against government authorities that might be coming to their residences and saying that they're going to stay together and quarantine at home and stand

by their infected neighbors. so this is an interesting development. we don't know whether or not it's going to have so much of an impact at the end of the day however, the point is, that the residents are trying to use the chinese law and force the government authorities to abide by those laws. so an interesting development, andrew, and we're going to see whether or not it gets anywhere. >> eunice, have you ever seen anything like this and what do you think the potential legal ramifications are for those who are going to be part of these pacts could you see a real not just lockdown, but worse in terms of arresting some of these people what are the real implications of what this could be or are there so many people involved that this could be such a massive protest nationwide that the government actually does have to push back -- or not push back, but let down >> reporter: the typical reaction is that the government

authorities just crack down on residents. you don't have much of any real authority to be able to push back however, what's interesting is that they're organizing. these are individual communities that are trying to organize and push back and they're using the -- a legal means a lot of the people are quite educated and they're saying, okay, we agree in this pact and according to chinese law, you're not supposed to be doing this. so whether or not that's actually going to get anywhere is still up in the air what's interesting is to see the trend that it's popping up, you know, more and more and that's something that we haven't really seen so far. >> eunice, i want to thank you for that report today. we're going to keep our enyes on this story when we come back, a lot more of the friday rush is on, black friday rush is on, that is but you could be missing some of the most wanted items under the

tree this year we'll bring you the details next check out the futures ahead of this open today. it's a shortened market day. dow will open up 60 points higher, nasdaq off 27 points, the s&p 500 up about 4 we're back right after this. buss get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

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>> reporter: exactly right good morning i'm outside the apple store here on 5th avenue in new york, if you're looking to buy the latest apple iphone you'll have to wait, estimating around 38 days up four days from last week if you buy an 14 pro iphone today you're likely not getting it before christmas 83 million iphone units are expected to be sold in the month of december. it will likely come down due the lockdowns in china workers protested earlier this week, clashing with police over pay, also complicating matters its main supplier struggling to hire workers in the country, now on november 6th apple warned

investors of iphone shipment delayed that they would deferred not locked covid disruptions are likely costing apple about $1 billion a week in missed sales holiday shopping season is crucial for apple, iphone sales declined about 30% on average from december to january, in china, it's less pronounced we're here outside the apple store here on fifth avenue, we went inside, about 40 to 50 people inside looking around, browsing, to see what they want to buy we expect crowds to pick up in the coming hours guys >> thank you so much. for more on apple we're joined by an cnbc contributor. let me start with joanna, tell us your sense of how important

this is for apple, what did she say? 30% fewer iphone sales than otherwise would have if not for the supply constraints. >> it's certainly important, if you go on apple.com today you won't be able to get the iphone pro models in time for christmas, they're shipping a little bit after, december 28th, some slipping to january, so if you really wanted this phone and give this to someone for the holiday you're going to be out of luck. i'm not going to be the iphone grinch here, you can still get plenty of iphone models, some of the older models, the iphone 12s, 13s, giving you gift cards if you get those. >> i don't want the older model, i want the new one, i mean here's the thing, ten years ago i might have switched out of the

ios operating system i don't think i would do that right now. would they switch to a samsung or google phone? >> it's interesting, we did a survey shortly after the iphone 14 models were announced and began to roll out, and what we found is that two-thirds of consumers who wanted to buy an iphone, expected to buy an iphone wanted to buy the pro or pro max models that's where the supply constraints are, so, yeah, i think today in this environment you're buying an iphone because you want the latest and the greatest or your iphone is broken and, you know, i think it's difficult setup for the headline number, but i do think it's very difficult to move from ecosystem, they've

done such a good job of roping people in with the air pods and everything surrounding that, the apple watch, and i think that the apple has been a great share gainer across their product gainers so i don't think this is going to be a migration as much as it's going to be the street scratching our head, what do we make of the deferral, expect investors put back in their mental models and say, this company sells products people want, let's tend to look past this. >> is this something that apple felt made a mistake putting too much of manufacturing eggs in the china basket, could this prompt more diversification? >> they're planning diversification in india and vietnam, they certainly know this is the problem.

i banked on people wanting to buy the lower end models, the iphone plus, being a new model this year, thinking, okay, people get the bigger screen on the iphone plus, cheaper price point, they want those pro models, apple banked when they looked at inventory they were able to ramp up more on the pros but they're having a bigger problem producing more of those pros >> thank you so much for joining us, andrew, a lot going on this morning. lot happening on squawk box. >> you got to get a new phone. when we come back, we'll talk to former macy's ceo terry lundgren, he'll give us his holiday forecast we head to break, take a look at this mni'sorng s&p 500 winners right now.

"squawk box" coming back with the final big hour of the morning.

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good morning black friday trading, futures

showing some green and china covid dilemma, more lockdown, how will this impact the chinese economy? at this hour the mall of america is just opening right now for black friday shoppers, you're looking at them the live shot as they're opening up and folks are walking in, we're going to talk to former macy's ceo terry lundgren about the holiday shopping season. final hour of "squawk box" begins right now >> good morning, everybody. welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq marketsite in times square been watching what has been

happening in pre-market, markets are only open to 1:00 p.m., a half-day trading, we're here and ready to go, so far a mixed picture as we've been watching the futures, the dow is up by about 64, s&p futures are down by 4 treasury yields have been pretty interesting to watch a mixed picture, too, the 10-year is a little bit higher, actually the 2-year is higher, too. then if you watch energy prices we have seen higher energy prices but you're still talking about wti below $80 a barrel big box stores, since it's black friday, walmart a little bit higher this morning, also shares of target up, wti, if we were to look at it, it would say -- big drum roll -- 79 and change,

you'll have to take our word >> why would you lie about oil >> i haven't looked at it in an hour or two. >> i have it here somewhere. but let's check out this morning's stock movers, we have the dominator, dom chu with us he said he's not going to golf today even though the rain is going to pass. >> the weather's going to be relatively warm for this time of year i could make a case for it but i don't think my wife and my two small children -- >> with my wife, every warm day in november and december i say, honey, this is the last day to get out. she says, go >> i think my wife has heard that line just one too many times. >> she's wise to you >> my fishing expeditions are

like my golf expeditions >> i'm telling your wives. >> i know, becky and my wife have had this conversation before anyway, it's black friday, what we want to do for this particular check, the current state of play on certain parts of the retail landscape and becky alluded to it at the top of the show here, a couple of different formats and what's going on in the pre-market right now, the caveat here with a truncated trading day not a lot of regular-session volume expected, but let's start with the big box stores, walmart currently up fractionally, same with target. costco and best buy down also checking in on another part of the market overall, which is those stocks closely tied to

department stores, if you look at stocks like macy's, also kohl's, dillard's, nordstrom as well, fractional gains for macy's and kohl's. positivity around the departmen store trading and specialty retail right now also a big focus if you take a look at names like williams-sonoma, flat on the session bath and body works, up 1.30%. so there's a general sense of positivity right now in that retail trade, we'll continue to watch those, andrew, current state of play for department stores, big box and specialty retail >> okay, dom, thank you for that want to talk more about the markets right now, joining us is

the president of wealth advisers at rockefeller capital management, good morning to you. >> good morning. >> we've been trying to figure out what's going to happen between now and christmas, beyond the debate about the fed, which is obviously the biggest piece of this that i do want to get to with you, is tax harvesting, there's a lot of movement and a lot of weird things can happen, let's go first to where you think the economy is and therefore where you think the fed is and therefore where you think the stock market is. >> all right -- let's do it. look, from the fed standpoint is this takes time to slow down, i mean raising rates, lowering rates, any time you do something in a quick fashion it takes time to kick it, i think we're seeing it now it will matter with retail sales. i think people still have money to spend but we'll be very focused on what happens there,

lastly, you know you're seeing so much volatility in the markets and that's part of the concern for us going into year-end and what's the most important is, bonds and stocks fell at the same time this year, so people had a lot of opportunity to sell tax harvesting throughout the whole year, i don't think you're going to see, real, real tax harvesting at the end of the year >> so when you think though putting money to work, given where we are right now, do you think the moves have been made, what do you think if we had this conversation in 2023. >> i think it's high er than no. the markets are i higher on average on the four, five worst consumer sentiment days. by 20%, 25%. a year from now, if your portfolios are positioned in a way you have a plan you're

sticking to it, you're focused on earnings and management and diversification, when you include stocks and bonds there's also a major piece for alternative investments which this year have been extremely important and you know if you have an alternative investment allocation it limits volatility and down markets and also helps in upmarkets, i think we're in a position now where the fed has inflation under control, that's going to start kicking if it already hasn't, we've seen the fed talk about not raising rates as fast as anymore i think you'll see that really kick in in the first or second quarter of next year. >> what do you think when you read goldman sachs out last week suggesting that rates will be flat >> obviously, goldman has a lot

of smart analysts and people are doing a lot of work right now trying to figure out what the future looks like we try to focus on allocation, really focus on positioning with strong managers who, you know, we've seen over time, could outperform the markets and i believe right now the fed is really getting this under control i believe sentiment's going to start to getting better. also the election overhang has passed us for at least two years now, geopolitically a lot of things are falling into place that are going to create less volatility looking at earning, the future, what the fed has done, continue to monitor portfolios, we're confident in what the future looks like for the equity markets, the fixed income markets, when was the last time we saw volatility like this in fixed income but it's sort of

calming, too, as you see, you know to get -- to get a 2-year treasury, you know, that's a 4% return next year on the fixed income market if you were to do that today i think the worst is behind us is what we're looking at. >> i hope you're right michael, thank you happy thanksgiving happy holidays hope to see you again soon >> thank you, andrew happy holidays when we come back, there may be more traffic at the mall this holiday shopping season but social media giants are still in the game, we'll check out the companies that are leading that charge, next. at the bottom of the hour, former macy's ceo terry lundgren with his holiday shopping playbook "squawk box" will be right back to adapt in the changing world, you could hire a professor of theoretical mathematics. we all know this equation, right? he'd crunched numbers day and night.

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welcome back to "squawk box" futures right now looking at a little bit on the s&p a little bit weaker, dow weaker but still positive and nasdaq down 25

points social media giants are trying to full advantage of the holiday shopping season and not just by selling advertising, julia joins us right now with more on that front julia, good morning. >> reporter: good morning, becky, get ready to shop for some presents while you're posting pictures of your turkey. 35% plan to do holiday shopping online estimated to 850 billion there are this year. and could grow to $1.25 trillion next year, youtube meta all struggling and an opportunity to lock in e-commerce advertisers and diversify their rev stream more a.i.-driven tools to help create effectsive ads, automatically creates up 150

different instagram and facebook ads, advertisers using these a.i. campaigns saw a 32% higher return, now the company is not taking a cut of those sales for now, as it focuses on how e-commerce can make its ads more effective, meta and snap are both taking the strategy for now, but they see these tools driving advertiser and consumer engagement and both could take a cut down the line, new shopping tools, augmented reality tools, this new new balance gift lens, questions about the person they're shopping for and voice-based machine learning analyzes the answers and shows the user gift ideas. take a look at youtube, they're expanding shopping capabilities

of shorts, the tiktok rival, supporting creators to keep them from leaving for tiktok. now youtube doesn't currently take a cut of sales but a percentage of creators' affiliate sales. >> just last week i was telling the guys on set that i had never bought anything on twitter before until the last month or so suddenly they're targeting me and they're targeting me with stuff i'm a s uucker for so they've gotten better. >> and specifically when it comes to these direct response ads you want to buy this right now, click to buy right now, those are ads that are draggally incredibly effective for the likes of facebook and snap >> i find a.i. to be really stupid when it comes to me, it shows me stuff that i've already

bought but doesn't make any connection to anything new and the programs suggested to me on netflix which is stupid and they never come up with anything good and then the shopping thing which is not -- >> i think you're tired. you think everyone is stupid today. >> is that it? i think china's stupid, maybe they'll get smarter with this a.i. thing >> maybe the a.i. can't predict what you like. >> you're unpredictable, steve you're unique. >> thank you this holiday season, senior research analyst dan, great to see you, talking all morning about the tech world and just how off the highs the tech land still is, the question is, is '23 going to be any better >> good morning, andrew, i think '23 will be a good year for

select technology companies if we think about the near-term, head winds facing the consumer, inflation, higher interest rates, if we take amazon as one example it will be impacted this holiday season but more importantly as we look out they're continuing to invest in prime and nfl, we think that's an attractive name, apple facing production impacts on china on their pro line will be impacted but we see them executing very well on their product cycles across the phone, wearables. i'll round it out with nvidi a leader in artificial intelligence and they're seeing some impact in their gaming business from weaker consumer demand as we move into 2023 they'll see their new product cycle. as we look on a return to growth late next year and certainly

into 2024 those could be good stocks. >> what would you stay away from at this point? what have you soured on at this point? >> andrew, we're watching carefully companies that are in transition for example we're looking closely at meta and they're important to users, to advertisers, we're looking closely at how they're transitioning their business, facebook is relatively mature and instagram is attractive, they're looking to develop reels, the metaverse looks further out. we're carefully examining those companies in transition and assess whether they can see solid growth on the other side of this. cer certainly everyone is facing macro head winds

>> dan, there's report that suggests the ftc may be about to file antitrust lawsuit of microsoft to overtake -- >> i think they're attractive for different reasons, microsoft really is leader in building out the digital infrastructure and their cloud like azure remain robust, we think activision has a number of gaming franchise we like that on a stand-alone basis. we'll have to see how the regulatory body looks at this. a good investment in its own right. we'll have to see how that plays out, becky >> dan, what do you got that's better than a 1-year treasury right now, it's 4.4%, if i'm

wrong about that i get bailed out with my principal in a year i don't know what's wrong with that, seems like a pretty good place for my money >> steve, i think if we look at some select technology companies that double digit growth over the next two, three years, if you look at google or alphabet for example, youtube whimpactedb the economy that's a robust healthy platform and the google cloud platform aimed at enterprise customer, more attractive than a treasury at current levels driven by the growth that we'll see in 2024 and 2025 qualcomm is another name which has over 2% yield, very attractive growth drivers in areas like 5g, the internet of things, $30 billion auto design pipeline, so i see opportunities

that are more interesting to me at current levels than treasuries >> okay, we're going to leave the conversation there, dan, happy thanksgiving, my friend. >> thank you, andrew happy thanksgiving coming up, former macy's ceo terry lundgren the futures at this hour were mixed just before we talked about it and a little bit weaker a reminder you can get the best of squawk box in our daily podcast, follow squawkpod on your favorite podcast app. can he stand on his own...

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all right, welcome back to "squawk box" again half day of trading here we're here only until 1:00 p.m. with the markets, markets are a little reluctant to get out too far one way or the other s&p futures up a point and a half nasdaq's down about 26 points. be bertha has been tracking the big box retail giant. >> reporter: becky, we're seeing that the old door buster, big lines, those crowds no more, but the big box retailers are contending with one of the ghost of christmas past, tt'has consumers willing to wait until

they get just the right price. i'll have that story coming up on "squawk box."

welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc

the dow is up about 30 points what's going to be a holiday-shortened day, day after thanksgiving, s&p up a point, then the nasdaq off about 27 points treasury yields, 10-year note, perhaps you might want to look at the 2-year note, the next two years, i don't know, steve and becky we're talkingabout it earlier, 4.5%. >> not if google's going up by double digits, right we said, you know, google, he said qualcomm is going up by double digits, double digits returns on the table i don't want to be making 4.5% andrew >> it depends what your appetite for risk is, right, steve. >> entirely, i mean, but you know, the question always becomes if it's money you're

leaving in the bank it's okay to put it in a one-year or two-year treasury i invest like i fish -- >> often >> often, no, if it's one year, two years, the tide is coming in, it's okay. >> because i know you're out in a like canoe >> now i have a boat, i grew up a little bit >> guys, you want to take a stab at investing in crypto. >> no, no. >> some people think you're going to get returns bitcoin at 16,500 this morning and ether at 1,91. bertha is joining us live from target in northern new jersey, what's the hot item, bertha >> there's plenty of them, but,

you know, the scenes from the movies and from years past you saw people lining up overnight, kind of jostle their way into the early door busters, that went all away with the pandemic. this morning they opened their doors at 7:00 p.m. the early birds weren't in a rush, more than 166 million of us will be shopping mostly in stores this weekend. for one family i met this morning today's black friday shopping started with a trip to walmart, their mission finding real bargains, but so far they're not finding what they're looking for. >> basically not the bargains you've hoped >> not at all, nothing i'm not going to save nothing with the sales they have, they have none. no sales this year terrible >> reporter: not what she was looking for or expecting in the that doorbuster environment, it

could be a season where consumers are going to play that game of chicken, predicted that sales will be up to 6% to 8% reaching nearly a trillion dollars. we know prices have gone up and adjusted for inflation, bain is talking 1% to 3% four weeks between now and christmas and if that family and families pinched by inflation is any guide you'll see a lot of consumers trying to push those retailers to have deeper discounts and wait longer for them back to you. >> i'm waiting for them, bertha. i'm waiting for them, but you know, i'm a cheapskate >> i already bought a couple things >> becky knows i'm a cheapskate. >> no you're just cautious and conservative with your money let's stick with retail

theme, joining us with is ceo terry lundgren, the former macy's ceo terry, it's been a long time good to see you. >> good to see you, too, becky thank you. >> here we are on black friday, a day you've worked your entire life, this is an important day and it's a big day to tell us a little bit about what to expect this holiday shopping season, where do things stand so far >> well, first of all, it's been a good year for retail, you know, we're on top of 14% increase of retail sales last year, overall it's been a food year and we'll finish these next six weeks strong, so i understand, you know lots of commentary back and forth about waiting and the like at the end of the day we'll end up with record sales this holiday season and it will be very strong over these next few days between

today and cyber monday some of the people you talked to, i worry about how it's stratifies the middle household nick really, really critical to us, becky, that group a lot of that group has money, too, 1.6 trillion more than they had in 2019, prior to is the stimulus relief packages, so there's money to spend it's dwindling and it's dwindling fast, but at least for these next six weeks there's money to spend, i strongly believe just following consumers as i have most of my career they'll spend it over the next five, six weeks. >> terry, the things are back to normal at this point, the last three years have been completely

abnormal and aberration because of covid, lockdowns, people having money and getting back out, he thinks we're back to normal where stores are getting back to the right inventory levels, does that sound right to you? >> it does, you know what happened last year as i said we had this huge increase last year and many retailers sort of lost control of the inventory shipments. so they doubled down and were ordering from multiple sources and we got burned, too much inventory and in some cases those retailers are still working that through, that's bad news for those retailers in terms of short-term earnings it's good news for consumers because they have to get rid of this inventory by the end of this year they're going to be sales by a lot of retailers who have too much inventory if their inventory is up 15%, 16% going

into the fourth quarter and their sales are forecast to be flat or up, they have a challenge on their hands, starting january 1, the rate of sales diminished so much it's almost impossible to get rid of big lumps of inventory, motivation on part of the retailers. good news for consumers. >> terry, how important it is for black friday to be really good, because i remember not too long ago there was a season when black friday was gangbusters and everyone was like, wow, it's going to be a great season and then it trailed off. what does black friday tell you about the rest of the season and because it's a sunday christmas things are going to be later this year? >> steve, good point first of all i remember i used to stand outside the macy's herald square store, counting

how many people were in line for the store opening. as a greater per cent of theover all business, those lines have diminished, there's less of that urgency. we're getting back to normal but we're not there 100%, we're not back to that black friday frenzy that i was just describing, it doesn't mean the numbers aren't going to be there because the combination of online and if iz call store retail ultimately will prevail and we'll have record sales in my opinion today, friday is important for momentum, for you to have a good experience, good positive experience going into the stores and you'll want to go back, that extra saturday at the end of the period is really important, it's really, really important and it does matter and it will show up in the numbers at the end of the day, so i think, yes, there's going to be -- getting a quick

start is important but we've got time this particular holiday season to sell this inventory and adjust pricing if necessary to see the momentum to clear through the goods they the retailers need to clear. >> terry, we're talking about a great employment picture many this country right now, less than 4%, inflation definitely pinching people especially at the lower income stratosphere, we heard it from target and walmart they're seeing people trade down to other things, peanut butter and hot dogs instead of the meat they were buying before, how does that play out in this environment >> yeah, it's 100% correct the higher household income is frankly fine, the upper half of the middle household income group also is fine, the lower household income, becky, they're

only buying needs at this point and not the things they would want to buy and so you just described that consumer and that consumer is in a pinch, that money is gone they're racking up credit card debt, that's clearly a challenge, but overall, what's going to drive the economy and gdp in this fourth quarter is this middle income household group, that large group, stratified, if that upper group they're fine, they'll continue with their shopping habits and provide those great gifts, the wants that their family or their friends are going to want and desire, but lower half is going to be more about what i can afford frankly and that does create a challenge for the higher income -- or the higher priced products and it will drive prices -- it will drive demand down to the off-price

retailers. i think walmart is actually positioned well, they had phenomenal third quarter and i think that momentum is good, i think they've burned through a lot of inventory issues they had earlier and they are considered a low cost provider if you will, at the end overtime they'll show up well in the environment that i just described >> terry, you know this industry better than anybody, what's the question we haven't asked you that we should have? >> well, you know, maybe about the luxury business, because i don't want to ignore that, what happens toward the end in particular is that, you know, the higher end product, plenty of those to choose from and luxury will sell, they won't require a discount, more of a scarcity item and the other piece which i think benefits if i can make a plug for my former company macy's, macy's the

largest seller of what we call prestige fragrance in the united states and that's fabulous last-minute item, when you've run out of time, that's the go-to gift and your go-to location for fine fragrance. >> the question is, what is terry sending me this year he sent me a red velvet jacket one year, socks another year, i don't know what he's going to send this year. >> i get nothing terry, a lot of macy's shares -- >> over time i've diversified, becky, but the answer is still, it's still matters to me, it definitely still matters, i'm one of those guys who a long-term holder having sold almost anything in the last few years certainly, i got a lot of faith and confidence in the team there.

>> terry, thank you. we'll leave what you're getting for steve as a surprise this year. >> he got me socks because i was at a conference he was at -- the socks didn't go up all the way it's like steve, what are you doing? he sent me these long socks. we got to go coming up, china battling covid with more lockdowns social media reports are showing residents pushing back, eunice will bring us the latest from the ground. eu eunice >> reporter: thanks steve, beijing residents are entering connected impact, in an effort to push back against government authorities using china's rule, more in just a moment.

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welcome back the head of the open this morning, a little bit higher, a little bit, the dow down there about 15 points, s&p 500 in the red now. nasdaq down 50 points. we have a holiday-shortened market day. developing story out of china, beijing grinding to a near-halt as it battles covid with more lockdowns weighing on the markets this morning, eunice joins us live with the latest. eunice. >> reporter: thanks, andrew, not

just beijing plenty of other cities have been grinding to a halt as the case count reaches an all-time high the reported number of infections for the country is now nearing 33,000 and the leadership here looks as though it's at least officially tolerating this higher number in line with its new what it describes precise zero covid approach, unfortunately, kwarnts, lockdowns as quell as shutdowns of businesses are much more frequent and inconsistent in china's iphone city or guangzhou, that city is now mostly in lockdown until tuesday and this comes after violent protests emerged at the foxconn iphone facility there, now foxconn has said it's apologizing for what it described as a technical error in a worker pay dispute which

triggered those protests offering $1400 thereabouts for recruiters departing but there's a huge question as to whether or not that facility is going to be able to meet its end of month internal goal to have that facility up and running fully by that time, now the tightening covid curbs around the country are sparking fears of citywide shutdowns not only in beijing but in other major export hubs such as guangzhou for example, came out and denied it was going to go into a citywide silent period where things kind of slow down let alone full-on lockdown, however we heard those kind of promises from local officials before and then later seen a

lockdown like we've seen in shanghai pushback here in beijing and something that's an interesting trend where residents now, being thrown into unofficial lockdowns for the past several days are now starting to come up with their own as what they described connected dragon pacts to push back against any government authorities that come to lock down the building or take them to government isolation facility they'll agree to go into community home quarantine and to stand by their neighbors, thes types of agreements have been floating online now and are starting to get more and more k senesse censored they want to make sure that the government authorities abide by

those regulations. now the government itself is trying to stabilize the economy because all of these lock browns have been creating a whole lot of uncertainty, the china central bank said it will be cutting its reserve requirement by 25 basis points on december 5th. >> eunice, i have a very simple question that maybe you answered before but i don't quite get this, are chinese workers paid when they're told they can't show up at the factory because of covid lockdowns >> are they paid i didn't hear you. >> in other words, if they can't go to work because of a lockdown, are they not paid their salary or are they paid their salary >> it really depends, a lot of people are not paid, so, i mean, at that foxconn facility there's so much money that's thrown at these workers, some are going

back with that 1400 bonus, but there are so many people here who don't get paid if, you know, if they go into lockdown, and so it really depends on who your employer is, because of that, though, you're getting at the point talking to some workers recently who said that china has a money problem because they just don't have money. people aren't earning money. all these disruptions make it so much harder. >> if they're not getting paid are the lockdowns a source of social unrest? is that what we're seeing in the video there or that a separate unique thing to foxcom, are or people upset because they're locking down >> people are very upset they're not able to earn a living. or that their income is being

disrupted, that their businesses are being shut down. they're not able to live a normal life. this is a big country so a lot of this is happening in the cities in some of the rural areas they haven't been as affected as other people have told me there said well, we could grow our own food, so we can feed ourselves and a lot of the messaging out there has been all state media, so very much controlled. so those people don't actually have as much of a problem with some of these zero covid controls, but when you look in the cities it's very much a topic of frustration. so people are seeing their lives completely upended and that's one of the reasons why it's interesting to see this level of organization on the part of various communities to push back against government authorities. >> we are so lucky to have eunice yoon reporting for us, doing vital work, not just for us but i think for the world in her reporting. >> she does a great job. eunice, we appreciate it thank you.

>> when we and back, a lot more on this last nine minutes of the day or of our day, at least, but it's also a shortened trading day. still plenty of opportunities perhaps to make money. we have some ideas after the break. first, as we head to that break, take a look at this morning's biggest premarket winners and losers you're watching squawk

from the opening bell on wall street it will be a shortened trading session today. we're done at 1:00 joining us is ethan, chief investment officer at monetta, which has more than $32 billion in assets under management ethan, thanks for joining us we haven't said the word pivot i think the entire morning here. we would have to go back and check the transcript do you see the federal reserve doing anything resembling a pivot in the next several months that is a catalyst for stocks here >> well, it really depends on how we define pivot. what the fed is thinking about is a deceleration at some stage in the future. quite far from a pivot which

most people interpret as a change of direction. a deceleration might be interpreted as a positive sign for stocks and certainly for the direction of rates andflation. that's where markets seem to be anchoring now, slowing down. >> it's been a tough trade, though, right? a couple times the market wanted to trade the pivot and it got waxed for doing that is that a concern now that you go all in and all of a sudden the fed turns around it is an interesting day coming up, december 13th, the first day of the fed meeting also you get the november cpi report, and that could change the outlook pretty dramatically, right? >> absolutely. all eyes will be on the components of the cpi and the transmission effect of the fed's policy so far. we were rapped on the knuckles after the euphoria that greeted the 7.7% number. then a bit of mixed messaging from the fed and that coalesced around the message there will be some in the future some assurance this transmission

is in effect we're going to be focused on what inflation is comprised of, whether the stickiness is still in the service numbers >> ethan, what are you telling folks at your thanksgiving gathering about the outlook for the economy? i kind of thought i knew what hap was happening and then i have seen gdp forecasts go up for the fourth quarter is a recession your base case here >> a very shallow recession if so we're definitely going to see a slowdown, but that's been telegraphed so well. what's really unique are two things one is how well it's been telegraphed. we learned the lessons from the fed. they want to get the message out there early and let it sink out. that's what companies have been doing too. they got the message out there early. and employment is continuing to be robust. we're still seeing at an average level, most people can get jobs. that's key to restoring the consumer confidence and

stability. >> is that forecast of yours you think baked into stocks? we had a guy in the other hour, the last segment he said you're going to have double digit returns in meta and qualcomm and all these tech companies. that's better than my 4 point whatever i can get in bonds because of these returns i was thinking, well, if the recession is not baked in, then i may have another leg down here in stocks. what is your sense in which the recession is already in the stock price? >> definitely there is a slowdown in the stock price right now. we have seen that a lot of the bad news is out of the way i wouldn't be sharing that guest view about the double-digit up side in some of the tech stocks. it's still suffering from a mass contagion effect that's rippling from the ftx situation we're looking at all of the adjacent businesses and anything that involved much of this digital area investors now know they didn't understand it. and i expect tech to be affected by that for some time.

i don't expect to see double digits in stocks but i expect stocks to return to their long term run rate, maybe around 10%. bonds are interesting and most asset allocations are going to shift to include more bonds. >> what's your best idea >> best idea is defensive equities, health care right now. health care stocks i like, especially as we head into the winter >> ethan, thank you for joining us happy holidays >> same to you >> and the weather outside is frightful. >> anyway, folks, it's time for a final check on the markets before we hand things over to "squawk on the street. we're basically at the flat line we haven't budged a whole lot. you see the dow futures up by about ten points s&p futures down by 3.5%, but the nasdaq off by 52 remember, this is a half day of trading today. market is only open until 1:00 a p.m. >> what's your bet on christmas?

what do you think? >> see, here's the debate we always go back to. are you talking about good for the christmas meaning from the economy's perspective or the consumer >> the stores, it's a mixed bag. for the economy overall, i think it will be decent. >> a win for consumer because you're going to find sales >> finally, after three years. that's it for us we'll see you next week. right now time for "squawk on the street." let's get this holiday season under way we have some cheer on the floor of the new york stock exchange this morning it's kids day at the big board, the first one since 2019 good friday morning. i'm carl with david and morgan jim cramer has the morning off today. it's been a good thanksgiving week for markets futures trying to hold in on this black friday. a short session for stocks we close at 1:00 p