now than we ever did as a public company, julia as for next week things going to continue to get very busy. have a jobs number coming up on friday, pce on thursday, and powell will speak at brookings on wednesday as we look for more clues out of the fed julia, it was really fun anchoring with you today let's get closing bell stocks are seeing mixed action on the shortened black friday session the dow's actually up session highs but the nasdaq is pulling back as we head into the final hour of trading. this is the make-or-break hour for your money welcome to closing bell. i'm sarah eisen. it's the china exposed names weighing more heavily on the market today the s&p 500 is flat. what it reflects is a tale of different sectors. you've got strength today in health care, utilities,

industrials, financials, all going strong the weakness is in technology. that's why the nasdaq comp is down about 0.4%. activision, blizzard, we'll talk about it check out the move in apple today, dragging on the nasdaq as well amid concerns about iphone production in china. much more on that story in just a moment also ahead on this special edition of closing bell we'll talk to the ceo of sneaker and apparel platform stockx and the brands getting the most interest from customers right now i'll also be with you on over time today as well we'll talk to tom lee and of course his outlook for crypto amid new news today about a fund back up in crypto. let's begin in retail.

adobe out saying customers spent a record $5.29 billion online on that thanksgiving day and that was up nearly 3% from last year. a look at the retailers that stand to benefit most from the holiday rush how are you thinking about winners this year? >> hi, sarah, so far wal-mart is topping the list as the most searched for retailer for black friday deals according an online researcher tracking sales today. those early results for wal-mart and target bode well for those big box retailers especially because it doesn't include traffic to stores today and into the weekend. some categories are jumping out, too. beauty and tech are the top two. and people are looking for nontraditional gifts like taking a vacation or going to a concert. we'll have to see what retailers ultimately win or lose this holiday season and the stakes

are high online shoppers are expected to spend $9 billion today to put that into context a typical online spending day is 2 to $3 billion, and even more spending expected tomorrow and cyber monday >> melissa, i wanted to ask you as well about amazon in particular the stock is a little bit lower and there's word of warehouse strikes. is this real and materializing >> it's worth noting amazon strikes have happened before on key days like black friday and they did not have a material impact it's also safe to say amazon could potentially make up for those sales if there was any losses in the coming weeks >> got it, melissa, thank you very much. we'll check back in with you let's bring in our retail panel and what to do with these discretionary stocks who is at a mall right now i love both of you old school retail analysts go into the

mall does anyone still go to the mall, ed >> you know, there's actually a decent amount of people here we saw a lot of people in line at target and wal-mart early this morning it's clear consumers want to come back to stores. >> there's like one person behind him right now as he says -- >> well, his shot is very tight so i couldn't see how much traffic there actually was i think you were at a mall as well, right? even though you're making fun of your colleague what are the sort of things you're looking at in terms of prices and traffic and what makes this year different? >> so i call it friend more than a colleague. the mornings which we're used to probably don't hurt as much. if you walk through it if you're there at 7:00 there's no one at all. it feels like, listen, not that this is going to matter outside of the stock but there's some lines outside lulu, and some

lines outside apple, but the line outside retailers like the shoe companies they don't exist. whether that's because we're in a different mind-set, i think it's a very different perspective on we need to run and there's stampedes. >> we're not seeing the door busters we've seen in the past and that's probably a good thing. we're still dealing with covid we don't want the crowd. ed, how do you determine which stocks, which companies are doing the best to recommend right now with traffic kind of vague given the bifurcation here with online spending >> right now we like companies that have very specific catalysts like a target and we like players like a nordstrom but clearly you have to be selective. the consumer is pulling back in a lot of areas interestingly we saw a lot of people buying luggage today. so clearly the travel

experiential might be the thing for holidays >> haven't we seen weakness? isn't the notable weakness from places like a nordstrom, khol's, and target as far as october, november trends. >> it was interesting nordstrom called out actually end of november got better. it seems like with cooler weather we're seeing more interest in apparel. the other thing i would add it's more the entry price point where you're seeing the weakness and not really the true high end >> one of your strategies for picking winners has been who's able to maintain price and profitability in an increasingly promotional environment. who is that? >> yes, i've been talking to a lot of friends in business and i think right now people are scrambling i think there are companies going to win because of all the excess inventory and that's a tjx, and then there are companies i think are going to

benefit in spite of all the excess -- sorry, they're the ones that are holding line i think if you look across most others are promoting if you can maintain this pricing power and you can weather it just giving away things to clear is not the right strategy right now. >> the other big theme in the consumer that you both have talked about and everybody's paid attention to we've heard it from companies between the low end consumer and the high end income levels and how inflation is hurting the lower end even more and is the high end also starting to see weakness on the fact that everything is costing more in our lives? >> you know, less i think pressure from inflation. but one thing we worry about the high end is the leverage to

asset markets. behind consumer is less about can they spend but do they feel comfortable spending clearly the stock market, real estate prices are not helpful to the high end consumer. again, we're not starting to see early signs. >> does it impact your view on some of the names exposed? nordstrom is one of the names and ralph lauren is doing well today. >> luxury broadly has held up very well. this high end consumer has been much more resilient than we would have expected coming into the year >> i think that point's important i know the high income story is easy to jump into i think at the end of the day what we're seeing is more of a product discrepancy than it is a high income discrepancy.

it's a different reason. it's a high income product, but people don't need another bike people don't need more patio furniture. more than recession i think we have to understand where's the replenishment. and if there's a reason to buy people are out there shopping. >> the other point is we've been spending it's very unusual because of all the covid disruptions we've been spending at a much higher clip over the last 18 months than is typical going into black friday, isn't it >> i think that's exactly it i think we have to ask ourselves how many pairs of shoes or scented candles did we buy >> air fryers. >> if you have them already, you don't need it. let us use our stuff we'll come back to it. i think the companies that can hold onto that, maintain their pricing power i think walk out better in 2023

>> ed, an award worthy shot there at the mall. it does look a little quiet. thank you very much. look at apple. it's at the bought omof the dow today even though the dow is up today investors keeping a close eye at the foxconn plant in china. and the crucial holiday season what it ultimately means for ap. you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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welcome back apple heading into the crucial holiday season with fresh

concerns about its production capabilities in china. it is currently weighing on the dow and nasdaq our eunice joins us from beijing with a look at the foxconn plant ipchina. what is happening there the. >> reporter: most of china's iphone city in central china is in lock down tonight until tuesday after violent protests erupted at foxconn's main iphone facility there now the company has apologized for what it described as a technical error in worker pay that at least in part triggered those protests foxconn is now offering $1,400 or so for any recruits that want to depart the facilities apple has sent in staff and said it's working with foxconn to try to meet some of the employee's demands. now, the turmoil raises

questions if foxconn is going to be able to meet its internal end of month deadline to get that facility up and running. sarah? >> so, eunice, this is sort of aside from the covid concerns, which are also front and center for china today, for the global market today another reserve ratio cut, so china stipulating to address what appears to be more shutdowns. how bad is it getting? >> reporter: yeah, that's right. so in theory that's going to inject about $70 billion into the economy, which would be a good thing the problem is it doesn'tdries all the uncertainty to the lockdowns. in addition to the supply chain problems we're seeing in china which is a huge export hub, they have been denying there's going to be a citywide shutdown or even what the authorities there described as a silent period, which is a slowing down. however, tonight one of the key districts announced it is

suspending all public transport and is ordering all residents to stay at home so since in the past especially around the shanghai lockdown earlier this year, city officials had denied vehemently there was going to be a lockdown and then there was a lockdown. there isn't a whole lot of faith that the residents have in some of these announcements by city officials. >> eunice yoon, thank you. with china covid cases topping 30,000 for the first time ever the kyetf track those china companies down 4.5% right now. let's bring in danives and you've published today on this issue with some specificity. so how are you getting your information here on what's happening in the apple supply chain? >> yeah, based ongoing into today we thought it was about 5% cut to iphone units. what we saw at stores today across retail it's about 25 to

30% below typical for apple within apple stores. and i think you're seeing those wait times continue to increase. look, this is not good news and it's been a body blow to apple for some supply chain perspective. right now they can only watch. >> apple has managed pretty well throughout the supply chain crisis that came out from covid, right, and it's been -- there have been questions before about china and apple, and it manages to overcome those. are you saying something's different this time? >> i think this time is different because it's the most important time for holiday season, demand continues to be over supply, and here it is you're losing about a billion dollars a week in lost iphone sales, and this couldn't have

come at a worst time for amyl. and it's reached a boiling point. clearly the images you see here that's been a black eye for apple, black eye for foxconn, and i think right now they continue to be at the mercy of the zero covid china policy. >> so how does it impact your earnings expectations for this quarter and the coming quarter >> right now iphone units have come down about 4, 5%. there could be potential to increase if we see these shutdowns continue i think from the street perspective demand continues to be firm. that's the important thing, you know, in terms of what we see here despite the economic storm cloud. but the supply chain, the clock struck midnight. you see it in the stock, and this is really, you know, active time where apple has been able

to be -- finally you're seeing cracks in the armor in china because of what wesy see in foxconn. 200 continues to be our top. our view is that this is more supply driven rather than demand driven demand continues to be our view going 2023 along with services, and i think apple and cook will get through this, but clearly it's a defining time, a moment of truth for cook. probably one of the biggest challenges they've seen in china from a supply chain perspective. >> and remind us how dependent apple is on china. they've been making moves to diversify the supply chain away but clearly can't happen fast enough >> they can talk the talk. realistically it's the hearts and loans of apple they can get 5% of iphone

production out to other countries by 2023, maybe 2024. so right now their hands are tied they dove into the deep end of the pool where and it's been their success but now it's coming back to haunt them. >> a lot of sales on-airpods black friday which also reflects people want them, but does it impact products other than the iphone >> well, in terms of the production, not as much. airpod production has been pretty firm in terms of outlook on stores especially in the holiday season i think that's trending above expectations with what we see on-airpods pro demand remains firm. the problem is i'd say next week finding an iphone is going to be like trying to find a piece of gold and it's really not going to be out there. and i think that's the issue right now. >> does anyone benefit as a result of that, samsung, google,

any of the competitors or are people just frustrated they can't get their iphone >> again, 90% of iphone users stay within the ecosystem. >> and there is the facts. dan, thank you appreciate it. happy holidays let's check in on the markets right now. we've got a 170-point rally on the dow. unh, united health adding the most as well as home depot, boeing, goldman sachs and visa s&p 500 you've got health care strong, industrials, real estate, energy, and consumer discretionary all in the green but the tech stocks are weighing a big part of that is apple, nvidia weaker, communication services weaker as well, the video game makers. we'll talk about that in a moment joining us with a look at the hottest brands this holiday season and later the airline etf

getting some altitude of late. it's up more than 29% from the lows we're going to ask annalist on her take on holiday demand and the setup into stock into europe be right back on "closing bell."

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36 minutes left of trading check out today's stealth mover. it is man chester united, another big mover. up 14.3% today shares of the iconic soccer club soaring again. they're now up more than 70% this week after the family announced it is exploring a possible sale. forbes estimates it's worth about $4.6 billion stocks soaring up next the ceo of sneaker reseller stockx on issues.

we're up 176 right now on the dow. continue to push higher thin esfinal hour of trade. we'll be right back.

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well, sneakers have grown into one of the buzziest parts of the commerce market some of the holiday items include the jordan one chicago, the jordan black canvas. joining us now is scott cutler welcome. >> it's great to be here on black friday sarah, thank you >> talk to me about demand for sneaker resale because you guys are coming off of a pretty hot stretch of a few years where everybody during covid started really building up their collections. >> well, you think about this year, this cyber five holiday weekend, probably one of the most challenging consumer environments we've seen in years and at the same time the consumer wants to show up, buy the right gift, find the right item, deliver happiness and joy during the holiday season so we're seeing a surge in demand today. i think that's driven by the fact today is probably the day consumer is going to find the

best values, and so we kicked off black friday with a spin to win challenge giving everything from site credits to sneakers for a year, a pair for a year all the way to drive demand to the site >> are you seeing more than say last year? how does it relate >> yes, so so far today, which is our biggest day of the year, we're ahead of last year our transaction volume has been about a trade every -- or two trades every second so high velocity and we're seeing a lot of focus on not only sneakers but other categories in apparel, in electronics, in collectibles, again, trying to find that right gift for the right season but also across a broad range of categories, which i think is emblematic of what consumers are trying to find today amidst supply chain challenges and challenges finding that right gift because it simply hasn't been available in most retail outlets. >> so, scott, i've been really eager to talk to you since this whole yeezy scandal broke.

because the whole sneaker market has been dominated by yeezy, n nike letely. >> it's important to understand we have zero-tolerance for anti-hate speech and stockx has a wide range of products that are powered by art tss, influencers, athletes, their views, their beliefs, their actions are theirs, not ours and as a resale platform we're a bit different than a lot of brands where individual sellers are selling the product so it's typically not the athlete, the artist or the brand itself selling that product and we don't have relationships with many of those that have been challenged today. that being said consumers are still challenged by the collaborations with these influencers to drive creativity across their products. >> so you're still selling these yeezy sneakers what's happened since this

ordeal for pricing and demand for them >> so what we've seen is actually a lot more focus on other brands, particularly in sneakers we've seen the holiday releases largely driven by jordan and nike -- for example, the jordan one lost and found, the jordan one ret row 11 cherry are going to be the hot sellers for sneakers we're seeing a surge in new balance, and we've seen a little bit of drop off in other brands like adidas. that being said i think people are finding inspiration in other areas even though some brands kind of rise and fall depending on consumer preferences. >> so does the nike supply chain issues impact you? they had real shortage problems, and now it's the opposite. they have such high inventories and and they've been having to unload them at discounts does that impact you at all? >> well, for retailers you're reliant on an entire supply chain of creating the product and then getting that product to the consumers. and of course the last couple of years the supply chain across

every category has been incredibly challenged. stockx is a little bit different because we operate a marketplace where sellers are getting access to that product whenever it might be released and we're usually using freight and carriers to deliver that product one by one instead of container ships sitting at ports to the extent any product is released anywhere around the world, we're serving customers in over 200 countries and territories around the world and brands are releasing products globally so our customers can have access whenever the products are released. >> so it hasn't impacted the number of hot releases of jordans, ret row jordans or anything like that >> listen, the timing of releases has been challenged so people have been able to hit the deadlines they expect, but, again, i think what you're seeing now is most of the supply chains have got caught up, and

now you have probably the opposite challenge in the market where you've got a weaker consumer and the supply chain is getting caught up and finding more an environment where demand is challenged, and so therefore as a place where you're trying to drive demand you really have to be top of your game to be able to drive demand to your consumer when that consumer right nowis facing incredible challenges >> i often go on stockx just to see what the trends are, right, what people want because you get such a good taste from the resale market what people are willing to pay for the hottest styles are there any up-and-coming brands you wouldn't necessarily think of outside the big three or four to watch >> well, it's aim possible to be wrong finding the right product on stockx. i think if you're trying to get that best gift for the gamer or fashion issa you're going to find it on stockx. we're always reflecting current

culture. we're always reflecting changes in the current market. couple things to highlight, collectible legos has been a huge category for us, the swatch omega collaboration we've sold over $13 million in just that collaboration alone. also crocks, new balance, and other areas of fashion and apparel you see great collaborations whether it be gucci, palace, cause, north face all really trying to release great product that is inspiring to be able to find and you can find those right products that typically again you can't find anywhere else on stockx, and that has been our value proposition during the holidays >> scott cutler, thank you very much ceo of stockx. here's where we stand right now in the markets up 158 or so, strong session for the dow. s&p 500 did just turn negative, though it's being weighed down by

technology today and the biggest drag there is apple. communication services and materials and now consumer staples and energy have just joined those sectors in the red. oil prices are down today. treasuries are also down with yields a little bit higher so is it game over for microsoft $69 billion acquisition of activision blizzard? up next details of anti-trust concerns over that deal sending that stock down 4% and a reminder you canisn lteto "closing bell" on the go up 162 on the dow. we'll be right back. easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities. while an earnings tool helps you plan your trades and stay on top of the market.

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activision blizzard among the worst performers right now on the s&p 500 dragging down the entire communications service

part of the market new questions today over microsoft's acquisition of the company. this was always a risk and we've always seen this spread between the deal price and the stock price. >> we've seen that spread and now we're seeing that spread widen as politico reports the ftx is likely to file a lawsuit blocking microsoft's $69 billion takeover of activision shares fall about 14% today on the news, but the report notes the lawsuit is not guaranteed and the ftc's commissioners have yet to vote or meet with lawyers from each company. no comment from ftc, but the heart of the concern is whether the deal could give microsoft an unfair boost in the gaming industry sony has emerged as the deal's primary opponent arguing it would be disadvantaged if microsoft made popular games such as call of duty exclusive to microsoft's gaming services but microsoft saying in a statement, quote, we're prepared

to address the concerns of regulators including the ftc and sony to ensure the deal closes with confidence. now as to concerns microsoft would make activision gains exclusive to its platforms, microsoft tells us it offered sony a ten-year deal to keep call of duty on play station we reached out to sony and activision for comment and have not heard back just yet. >> berkshire has been buying up activision as a play all yearlong keep us posted take a look at the airline stocks they're soaring as the holiday travel season takes off. up next a top airline analyst gives us her picks that story plus one surprising black friday trend this year, and tesla's self-driving expansion, when we take you inside the market zone next. what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna.

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so you won't miss an opportunity we are now at a very special closing bell market zone here to break down these crucial moments of the trading day with us first up we'll talk broader markets here, peter, because the dow is rallying. it's up 150 points s&p 500 is little change the nasdaq is lower. again it's this pressure on technology there are concerns about china out there, but we're still up nicely on the week, so with a lot of catalysts coming next week, how would you say we're setup here with the dow near 2 we're near a

monthly year high. >> inflation is rolling over which i think it is, and that would mean we're now getting to the tail end of these fed rate hike cycles after the fed goes into 15 in december they're not going to have that many left, so that is creating a lot of relief because we know inflation and interest rate hikes have been the main pain point for the markets this year. >> so that's all good and cause for the market rally on the flip side increasing concerns about what's happening with the economy, university of michigan sentiment number out on wednesday showed a drop from october, a 15% or so drop from november of last year, and so the bears will argue, well, then recession hasn't been priced into earnings and the market at this point what do you think? >> well, i'm someone in that camp i think that's sort of the next hill to climb for the markets is what is the economic consequences of such a sharp

rise in interest rates what's the economic consequences of potentially and i believe a global recession and what that's going to mean for earnings but it seems like the market wants to deal with that next year, but it's still going to be a major challenge for markets. and i think that's really the next hurdle to climb and sort of the next leg of the bear market. >> and i'll clarify we're on track for a seven month closing high, for the dow again 2 1/2 month closing high for the s&p if it can squeak out a gain today. black friday shopping kicking into high gear yesterday record day for online sales on thanksgiving. how are things shaping up today? >> so the latest numbers i'm getting right now are from racku10 and they're saying people are heading to luxury stores the actual luxury category, though, is up 26% year over

year so improvements over there other trends and this is from another firm we saw gift cards that are making a comeback is this is according to captitfy. they're seeing a surge roughly 427% higher in terms of searching for gift cards the reason that might happen is when you buy a gift card it's a set amount, $25 versus buying a blender. so with a gift card that could e.lify people are more cautious and concerned about pricing. and lastly for those watching right you and wondering about sales and discounts out there, toys are seeing the largest discount, down 34% off their listed price on average, this according to adobe electronics is second, but keep in mind cyber monday tends to be a little bit better for electronics. >> good news for parents that toys are off that much in terms of promos. christina, thank you >> thank you >> how do you factor the consumer right now, peter,

because so much data we're getting it's hard to know if it's inflation adjusted because people are paying more for everything even with these discounts. so how do you figure out what the health of the consumer truly is >> you're absolutely right for every percentage increase we hear about, we have to back fon and what we have seen in a lot of consumer products companies, what they're selling every day, most of it or if not all of it is price i think what we have heard from a lot of retailers with their earnings over the past couple weeks has sort of been this two-lane consumer highway where you have the lower to middle income consumer that is clearly spending less, is much more sensitive to pricing, is really focused on the discounts, and that the other lane is the higher end consumer that is still spending but even that lane is becoming more sensitive to prices. walmart, for sure, talked about how they're seeing more people making more than $100,000 now shopping at their store. i heard earlier the shopify

president say the consumer is being much more intentional, and i would call it sort of judicious in how they're spending their money >> let's talk travel because holiday travel is roaring back this year. nearly 2.5 million travelers passing through tsa checkpoint on thanksgiving eve. airlines predicting overall holiday demand will top prepandemic levels those stocks leading today and adding to gains so far this quarter. let's bring in sauthy. every time the market worries about discretionary demand falling off and hitting travel, we get these really strong numbers. so what do you do with the stocks >> i think what you're seeing is if you look at spending, the spending on goods has been above kind of the normal historical trend line, and what you're seeing is travel is finally getting back to the historical trend line i think that's why we're seeing travel spend being so strong here now, it doesn't mean that maybe

there's some weakness next year, but that's the biggest difference between goods spending and travel spending which continues to be very strong and benefitting from work from home as well >> so what do you do with the airline stocks how much is factored in that we're having a strong holiday travel season and what comes next >> we're being cautious. we're reflecting a recession in our numbers. if you look at it, there are some airlines who can justify even on 2023 numbers even if you assume a recession, and delta airlines is an example of that so i think there are selectively some good opportunities here and we have a strong volume in southwest as well, and there are still opportunities to be able to kind of buy into quality airlines because there is this sense that there's a recession coming, we don't want to own kind of travel cyclical companies, and i think it's something different this time versus kind of past down trends given that we're still recovering on the travel demand. >> it looks like you also like

united and delta as well >> exactly so delta is kind of the top pick amongst the u.s. airlines here both of those airlines should also be benefitting, keep in mind that the international markets didn't really open up until june which is when we didn't require any more testing. we're seeing long haul international demand coming back you have countries in the pacific that are just starting to open up the doors so there is a level of demand that didn't show up this year that will show up next year even if you do have a recession, there will be some new level of demand coming up and the biggest beneficiaries are delta and united >> what about the financials of these airlines that was always the concern, and then we had this huge surge of demand if demand starts to fall off, what do they look like given the dent they had to take on during covid? >> i think there's going to be a lot of discipline in the market to continue to improve your financials and improve the balance sheets because they have been hit keep in mind that airlines are

looking to be reporting a profit this year, even with the omicron hit in 1q. the setup is really good you had fuel that spiked really quickly, really fast, where fuel prices are double what they were in 2019. it takes time for prices to reflect that new fuel price environment. so the full year impact of what you're seeing in the second half this year, even with a recession, i think, will result in decent profitability next year for airlines to continue to improve their balance sheets as you go forward >> thank you for joining me today with your picks from raymond james. appreciate it. let's hit tesla because shares have been volatile today. the ev making recalling more than 80,000 vehicles in china because of issues over seat belts and its battery management software, and elon musk announcing the full self driving beta software is available to all customers in north america on the positive side phil lebeau joins us tesla expanding their full

self-driving software. is that what the investigation is focused on as well, the safety investigation >> it is, sara the investigation is by the national highway traffic safety administration and essentially, what nhtsa is looking at, the auto pilot software for some time they expanded their probe a couple months ago. what they're looking at are 16 incidents, and they want to know exactly whether or not the software is working as was div de designed, and also, is it designed to essentially make it foolproof. is there some way for the driver to misuse the system if there is, then it's on the manufacturer, which would be tesla, to figure out how do you make it so-called foolproof, so people can use it and there may not be incidents that's early in the investigation. look, they may come back and say we don't see a problem with autopilot software and there's no issue for tesla, but when you're looking at full

self-driving beta and release across the board in the united states and north america, it's not really a game changer because people who already have it, if they have already got the software or the hardware in the car, they pay $15,000 for it, they're likely going to be using it in some fashion it's not a driver at some point, let's be clear, these vehicles are not fully autonomous let's emphasize that they are not fully autonomous. that is well known within the industry and regulators are looking at that right now. >> no, and musk has said it himself, in defense of some of these issues that's how it's marketed what's the biggest risk for tesla now? is it china, the pressures there on supply and demand >> a combination of factors. i think china, for one, when you look at what's happening with the economy there. tesla has been one of the big leaders within the electric vehicle demand over there, and electric vehicles are still in demand over there, but you have cross currents with the economy which makes people say okay,

will demand slow down a little bit? remember, shanghai gig afactory is their most popular gigafactory. at the same time, we talked about this for some time this is a stock that moves based on whatever catalyst is out there or elon musk giving it oxygen he hasn't been doing that lately he's primarily focused on twitter. that's what we hear about. that's what he's tweeting about. you rarely see him tweeting about tesla, occasionally he will without that, if you're a tesla investor, you're waiting for that next catalyst and wondering when it comes. >> yeah, i'm sure tesla investors were happy to see he was tweeting about tesla again for a change thank you, phil lebeau >> exactly >> the focus is still there. peter, i just wanted to come to you finally on tech. because the market has recovered, as you summed it up really nicely on hopes for smaller rate hikes, potentially a pause in the rate hiking cycle, the fed kind of rethinking how they're going on

the path and yet, technology has not really recovered that strongly as the overall market. i'm looking at grouped like information tech, communication services is there a buying opportunity there if you do expect the fed to change its tune in the coming months >> i'm still suspect going into next year. a lot of these tech companies certainly are solid, but i think the valuations just got so extreme over the last bunch of years that this sort of growth to value trade is not just a six-month, 12-month thing. it potentially is a multiyear thing. what we're learning with a lot of tech companies is they're just economically sensitive and cyclical as many other sectors if growth is going to slow, if the consumer is going to slow their spending, if businesses are going to spend less, then all of tech is still going to be impacted by that and i think it's that realization in this bear market that has rerated them, and i still think that rerating will

continue >> so really quickly, where do you go now are you in more defensive spots like staples >> so i do own some staples, some of the consumer products companies. still liking commodity stocks like energy stocks, still very much loving precious metals, how difficult that has been. but still positive on them and also believing that if the dollar has topped out because the fed is almost done raising interest rates, they will benefit as well international markets. and also emerging market bonds i find very interesting and local currency if i'm right that the dollar is topped out >> dollar index up about .2%, but again, off its highs peter, it's been great having you in the market zone appreciate it. >> as we head into the close here, we're looking at the dow which is outperforming, up about 130 points or so 140. united health care, boeing, adding the most. apple taking off the most. s&p 500 is going to close red.

just barely. and that's because of tech stocks as well as communication services and energy is now underperforming as well. you have industrials, financials, they're having a good day the week as a whole, the s&p 500 is up 1.5% the nasdaq is up about .75%. rounding out what is a positive week with a mostly negative -- that's going to do it for "closing bell. now i'll take you into overtime. and welcome to overtime, everyone i'm sara eisen in today for scott wapner you heard the bells but we're just getting started coming up this hour, tom lee joins us with his year-end playbook plus, his first comments on reports of a crypto recovery fund in the wake of the ftx bankruptcy >> but we start with our talk of the tape local economic uncertainty putting hopes for a year end rally into question. now concerns today about the rising number of china covid cases and here in the u.s., we await some key reports next week

on manufacturing and on jobs our plans for a year end rally intact let's ask dan greenhouse, chief strategist and economist hello. >> how are you doing >> happy black friday. >> thank you for having me >> year end rally intact, yes or no >> seasonality, everyone on cnbc has been talking about this for weeks. seasonality is an incredibly powerful tailwind for markets. i don't see any reason why rising covid cases out of china, for instance, should derail that >> because then there are some serious questions about the global economy >> sure, and i think that's more of a multi-month or multi-quarter story. i'm always fond of reminding people that even the depths of 2008 december was an up month. so just to underscore -- >> you're still kind of bearish long term. >> listen, your lead-in mentioned that next week we get the employment report, maybe the ism report >> and powell speaks wednesday and takes questions. >> i think investors in general,

institutional where we live or retail, have to wrestle with two competing narratives now the first is, is the fed going to be able to engineer something resembling a soft landing, ie, inflation rates have been coming down, economy has been slowing they're going to slow the pace of rate hikes and land that plane, so to speak or if you're in the camp i'm in, you just don't believe that 500 basis points of are rate hikes in a 12-month timeframe or so results in only weakness in the housing market and the u.s. economy needs to be filled with something akin to a large cruise ship that turns very slowly and we're in the process of making those turns towards weakness >> you think it's going to be an uglier economic story next year. >> ugly is subjective. i think it's hard for me to imagine that you're not going to have a higher level of jobless claims, a greater number of job potentially losses, but certainly higher level jobless claims, lower level of employment gains, weaker manufacturing sector, ongoing

weakness in the housing sector and ultimately a consumer that bears the brunt of the bulk of those effects as you get further into neex year i would be careful not to say ugly because ugly implies to some people like a 2008 style recession, and it doesn't necessarily have to be that. it could be something more akin to the early '90s. >> you're saying that's not in the earnings expectations or the markets yet? >> the earnings conversation is also a bit nuances in the sense that on the one hand, i have argued and i think everybody has that earnings expectations were too high and needed to come down at the same time, at the risk of being a broken record on the channel, nominal earnings or a claim on nominal gdp and it's doing okay, growing more slowly, that should perhaps boost nominal earnings growth more than perhaps some of the more bearish forecasts expect but that said, i think we should for the next couple months for sure expect those earnings

expectations to continue to decline. >> how are you positioning the portfolio to reflect that? >> without getting too specific about what we're doing for fear of upsetting regulators and my entire compliance department, i think in a secteral sense -- >> they're out shopping. >> definitely out shopping that i can confirm we long likes energy, not as a trade but a secular tailwind for reasons articulated numerous times before we stay there, on the consumer side of things, the movie theaters and the movie going space, if you will, is an area we continue to focus on that's been something that has long been involved in i think there's sectors and there are themes that you can still find attractive if you have that early '90s style slowdown so to speak or recession. i think the fear everybody has obviously is something more dramatic and in people's defense, if you are our age and i'm considerably

older than you >> i don't know. >> by many decades >> i don't think that's true >> if you're my age and josh brown's age, let's say, you're accustomed to 50% drops in the stock market being the, quote, norm that's obviously being 2000 and 2008, that's not the case. recessions can be associated with stock market declines on the order of 25% or 30%. i would remind viewers at one point not long ago, the s&p was down 25% if you have a normal recession, you could argue, we already had the downturn that would be associated with it >> now down only 16.5% nasdaq still down about 30%. let's bring in shannon of sbb private and victoria fernandez of crossmark into this conversation shannon is also a cnbc contributor. shannon, are you as bearish as dan on the economy >> maybe not quite as bearish, but i would say we're certainly

setting up for an expected contraction in growth next year. i think the important thing is really this inflection point of how much consumer demand needs to be destroyed before the fed can sort of take its foot off the gas. i would say there's other expectations around the dollar as well as just kind of looking at what are the expectations out of china you talked about it earlier. i actually think that one of the things we have seen over the course of the last several months is that there has been evidence that some of what the fed was pointing to for their justification of inflation as transitory in terms of supply chain constraints, a lot of those explain che constraints are easing through a combination of just pure easing as we move into the post pandemic world and also this shift from goods to services spending. i look at that as a catalyst to say even if the fed can't necessarily engineer on its own a soft landing, by being able to decrease consumer demand, we're getting some easing of supply constraints on the other side, so those two coming together,

and that modest improvement on both sides really is what kind of looks, for me in the second half of 2023, as engineering that perhaps shallow recession whereas a couple months ago, i was definitely more concerned about it being something deeper. >> yeah, is that -- dan, is that fundamentally the chief question around the market now, is whether we can get a soft landing? we have been asking it for months, but it feels like the market is pricing that in. >> listen, yes yes, down 16%, you're pricing something along those lines. i would just say, shannon and i are probably living very close to each other on where the economy is going to end up something i disagree with people in general, and i don't think shannon necessarily said this, is there's so much faith put in the federal reserve's ability to do this properly when history says repeatedly they can't do this properly. that's not because it's not staffed by intelligent well-meaning people. it's because 10 or 11 people, guys and girls in a room,

probably are not going to manage a $20 trillion economy perfectly. there's probably - >> a lag, too. the impact of all this - >> see raphael bostic's recent speech >> victoria, weigh in here on your 2023 outlook. i guess it's black friday, we talk about the playbook for the next year. >> that's right. i mean, look, i think the lag that we're talking about is going to be one of the key components that leads us into next year. we have already done quite a significant amount of raises when it comes to the fed funds rate we're going to continue to see that i think we'll get a 50 basis point raise in december. i anticipate we'll see one, maybe two 25-basis point races in next year that lag usually takes 9 to 12 months march was our first raise. we're just now getting into the effects we're going to see for us, earnings expectations are going to come back down. we're going to see growth continue to slow

we'll see that globally as a lot of other central banks are now starting we saw the swiss bank raise 75 basis points we're seeing other people do it as well. i think there's going to be a catch-up and we're going to see slower growth. we do think we'll see that shorter, maybe that shallow recession coming into first quarter, into second quarter of next year. but i think the key also is that the consumer balance sheets and the corporate balance sheets are still decently strong. and for us, that means yeah, we're probably not going to get a complete soft landing but we don't think it's going to be too much concern next year, and we'll be able to bump our way through that, just have your balanced portfolio to take advantage of the ebbs and flows that you're seeing in the market >> so bottom line, given that view, victoria, wondering how you're expressing that does that mean you're buying on sell-off days? >> we actually talk about trimming on the green days and buying on the red days in the market i think that's how you have to

look at this we're not going to say go out there and make a huge shift to your portfolio because of a headline that you're seeing, because things can change so quickly. but if we look out there and we go, okay, look, we want to have that balanced portfolio. io want some defensiveness to our portfolio. we like hmos, we like health care both in small cap and large cap sectors. we like some financials and looking globally, starting to lookglobally as the dollar starts to pare back a little bit, as other central banks raise rates and catch up with us, there are tweaks you can do and some opportunities there without doing a major shift in your portfolio because look, it's going to be continued volatility over the coming quarters and you need to be able just to do little tweaks, little trades here and there in order to accomplish your goals. i don't think it's huge shifts in your portfolio that do that for you. >> shannon, what about technology i thought about you as someone before who has bought the dips

there. a tough year clearly for technology is that still the strategy i mentioned to peter last hour that with this recovery we have seen in the market, s&p to 2 1/2-month highs we haven't seen groups like consumer discretionary and communication services on board. >> yeah, and i would say we have been very thoughtful over the last couple years. you're not wrong we were historically very much overweight in technology, and we pared that back, but really over the last 18 months or so but more importantly, what we have done is diversified our exposure to technology i put that in quotes on purpose. because it's important to understand that there is going to continue to need to be innovation and disruption, because if you look at earnings and revenues for the last quarter, for instance. revenues grew strongly earnings are taking the hit because of higher prices, because of wages so you need to think about, are there other sectors where you can express the need for innovation and disruption? it's why we still like technology, although a more diversified basket there, but also industrials and health

care both sectors have a way to express that need for innovation and disruption, so i would say not limiting yourself just to those sectors but looking outside and saying we're going book to a higher cost, slower growth environment you need to engineer your own growth >> if the fed is really nearing the end of the rate hike cycle instead of the beginning, shouldn't tech be in a safer spot >> presumably, that's correct. i think the problem with all these analyses is we don't know what the economy is going to do next year. again, what makes the cycle so unusual is you have had this 20% drop in stock prices, before you had the recession. i know we had two quarters of gdp. >> highly telegraphed. >> highly telegraphed. i look at the stock market, obviously the nasdaq down more than the s&p, and i wonder as you go into next year, let's say we're all right and there's an economic slowdown, let's call it

a recession in q1, 2, 3, you already had a 25% drop in stocks are you going to go down again if you are, presumably, technology is going to get swept up with everything else. maybe we're talking about a relative value game. the problem you run into is worrying about the economic backdrop and everything getting thrown out, the baby and the bath water >> i guess health care would work in that environment relatively well as a safe haven defensive place to go. i know you like it for some of the innovation properties. >> yeah, we think just about demographic trends are really a headwind for most other sectors, right? and health care has this secular tailwind you're right, a combination of you can buy medical instruments and be looking at just procedure volumes and then you can buy companies that are on that cutting edge of technology you can do that in one sector. you're recognize just from a defensive perspective, this is normally seen as a place to hide out.

there is so much uncertainty, so i think it does come back to valuations even within sectors even within industries if you can trade over the course of the next couple weeks and you can take some names that are still down big and perhaps trade those out for relative outperformers in areas that you like, that's the type of positioning i think that makes sense coming into the end of the year >> what -- do you follow positioning? for so long, it was the sentiment and positioning is so depressed that we're due for a rally. and it feels like it's not as depressed right now, but i'm not sure where that stands >> first, you have to follow -- if you're going to follow the market, you have to follow positioning. the short answer there is yes. i think a couple weeks ago i would have told you for sure that was the case, and part of the reason i and any number of people were making the preliminary case in front of seasonality for a bounce in the market, you have the s&p up 13%, coming up against the 200-day moving average on a short term

relative strengthens index, the elevated levels, the percentage of stocks moving above their 52-day average it suggests there's been a big shift in positioning you still have a month and a half left of this incredibly strong part of the market, so i think the bias is still to the upside, but yeah, i think positions has shifted from where it was a couple weeks ago. >> it's not as much of a bullish tailwind >> that's right, but a couple weeks ago, sentiment was really poor, but you have had a big drop in interest rates across the spectrum, and the whole market has rallied except for four big stocks but maybe call it four stocks, amazon, meta, tesla, and one or two others >> yeah, alphabet. thank you. we're going to leave it there, dan, shannon, victoria, great discussion happy holidays to all of you we're going to turn back to retail on this black friday. and the companies poised to win

and lose this holiday season cnbc's melissa repko has that story, including some possible inventory issues >> hey, sara to win the season, retailers won't just need the right prices they also need the right staff bed, bath, & beyond struggled with this in recent years and is showing signs of challenges again. we reported it has had strained relationships with key vendors like kitchenaid and dyson, which makes it harder to get the hot products that are on shoppers' wish list. i spoke to dick's sporting goods with their chairman who told me the retailer feels ready for the holidays because it has brand names like nike and north face big box players so far seem to be doing well on this black friday walmart tops the list as the most searched retailer for black friday deals according to captify. target and khol's round out the top three. >> what about active wear, melissa? i'm wondering if that is maybe

not the brightest spot it has been for years. but clearly with people going out and dresses being more in demand, wonder how those companies, the nike, lululemon, under armour and others, kohl's that are exposed to athleisure are faring >> i was surprised when i talked to dick's sporting goods, he said there's still strong demand it may mean these brands have the staying power. some of the active wear on the shoe side need to be replaced. you run through running shoes or need to get your child fresh cleats that may help, but it's hard to say how companies like lululemon will do and if that demand for athleisure is still strong as people get ready for holiday parties again. >> personally, i'm still buying jeans over leggings and sweat pants. it's been a while. just one person's anecdote there. melissa, thank you >> that brings us to our twitter question of the day.

we want to know, which company will win the holiday shopping season here are your options. amazon, apple, walmart, or best buy. head over to cnbc overtime on twitter to vote right now. we'll share the results later in the show after the break, tom lee from fund stratweighs in on binance's new balance for a crypto recovery fund and makes the case for a big run in the s&p 500 in the final weeks of the year we're live from the new york stock exchange overtime will be back in two minutes. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything,

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these days, go to getrefunds.com to get started. our households depend on the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app today. crypto exchange binance announcing it is starting a crypto recovery fund to help the crypto community, quote, emerge and grow stronger from the crypto winter. our kate rooney joins us with the details. how does this work >> hey, sara this is being described as really an emergency fund for crypto firms hit by the ftx

bankruptcy so binance, the world's largest crypto exchange initially pledged a billion dollars to the fund its ceo followed up overnight saying it would tack on another billion dollars and says other crypto players like jump, for example, have pledged another $50 million. and in a blog post, binance saying this vehicle is not an investment fund. it says it's intended to support companies that through no fault of their own are facing significant short-term financial difficulties the program is expected to last around six months and binance says roughly 150 companies have already applied for that financial support. important to note here, it's not going to be in u.s. dollars or cash this is denominated ippart in binance's own stable coin or cryptocurrency it also says it's flexible on the investment structure it's accepting contributions in tokens, cash, and debt they expect individual situations to require tailored

solutions so that structure may raise some questions based on everything going on with cryptocurrencies and their stability. some irony here, this industry bailout role was played by sam bankman-fried and ftx earlier this year, his crypto company now the one going through bankruptcy and dragging a lot of the industry down with it. bitcoin has been pretty stable today. it's down slightly, but it's lost more than 15% of its value in the past two weeks. back to you. >> the bankruptcy lawyers are busy and bankers as well kate rooney, thank you let's bring in tom lee, fund strat's head of research on how he sees stocks heading into year end. fool me once this is exactly what sam bankman-fried tried to do, including the use of his own token. >> it is, sara, but you know, if you look at an industry like crypto that is self-regulated, it is important to create essentially some sort of functioning central bank like activity that can cult

operations when there is stress. so i don't think the ftx model was flawed it's just ftx itself was not capable of actually playing that role in crypto, there's still a lot of companies with good balance sheets especially that built their business around bitcoin. i think this is sort of a smart move i don't know if it's going to be sufficient to have binance only behind it. it would be helpful to see others kick in large capital actually >> if there are others big enough and have capital enough to do that at this point has any of this altered your view on crypto i know you're a longtime bitcoin bull the blowout of ftx, the continued pressure on bitcoin, has it changed your mind at all? >> it's been a horrific year for crypto it's been -- nobody has made money in crypto in 2022. but it's not that different from 2018, if we look back at that crypto winter when bitcoin went

from $17,000 to something like $1200 or so, those are -- that was the time when some of the best projects were created i think this is an important moment for the industry. i think it is cleaning a lot of and cleansing a lot of bad players and it's important but do i think crypto is dead? no, i think there's a lot of people throwing gasoline in a crowded theater and yelling fire and it's just going to be important for those who really like what decentralization and bitcoin are doing, i mean, they need to have the staying power but yeah, 2022 has been terrible >> are you still telling people to buy bitcoin >> yes we first read about bitcoin in 2017, and we recommended people put 1% of their funds into bitcoin at the time. bitcoin was under $1,000 that holding today would be 40% of their portfolio without rebalance. so does bitcoin still make sense for someone who wants to sort of

have some sort of ballast? yes. i think bitcoin, is it going to have another terrible year next year i think if there's more fraud, yes. but if this was the moment of financial stress, we're going to see emerge from this companies that emerged out of the gfc, the ascendancy of banks like j jpm jpmorganigate out of '08, and the mistake was to say that bunks were untouchable and that's what happened with crypto now. >> what about the rest of the stock market at this point you pretty much maintained a bullish stance heading into the year end, which is seasonally good, but are you a buyer now when the dow has closed at the highest level since april 21st >> the viewers have to appreciate the potential for stocks to rally today is the best it's been in all of 2022. there was a june pivot rally

that failed, but today it's very different. i think inflation is sign significantly weakening both on leader indicators and the cpi is showing softer inflation readings that means the fed may not have to be as aggressive as the fed believes it has to be and the consensus does that's good for multiples to expand and from a positioning perspective, as much as people people have turned bullish in two weeks, that doesn't even at all foot with any of our conversations we had with clients in the past twost weeks. people are pretty bearish, no one even wants to touch stocks here i think that's why we could rally to 4400 or better. >> what about the recession? that's the other bearish point dan greenhouse said the fed history shows us that the fed does break something, and history shows there's a bigger impact than just on the housing market and that's not fully reflected in the market. >> jpmorgan's economist had a funny comment, they said

expansions don't die of old age. they get murdered by the fed i think that's the fear out there. but i think that this economy has been incredibly resilient. it's taken a huge amount of fed hikes. there's still not a lot of actual leverage in households or corporates, but there's savings and pent-up demand, so i would probably be in the minority camp that i think we're still setting up for a soft landing, but that's not true if the fed goes to 6% or 7%, but we're looking at the two-year and that's telling us the fed is a lot closer to being done that most people expect. >> tom lee, appreciate you joining us today happy holidays >> happy thanksgiving. >> happy thanksgiving. next week, by the way, cnbc pro week some of the biggest names in stock picking including tom lee himself, cathie wood, lee cooperman will be taking your questions online go to cnbc.com/pro/talks to sign up >> up next, cashing in on the

consumer john san marco has the top retail stocks that investors should have on their shopping lists. that's right after the break overtime will be right back. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. (vo) hi, we're visible. a different kind of wireless company. to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. in sports, catches are a good thing. wireless? not so much. so we don't do catches. with visible you get a one-line plan with unlimited data for just $30 a month, taxes and fees included. switch today at visible.com.

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will help you get there. as you plan, protect and retire. ♪ welcome back to overtime time for a cnbc news update with

julia boorstin >> sara, here's your cnbc news update at this hour. airlines expecting to receive new jets from airbus next year may have to wait longer than planned. industry sources tell reuters that the jet maker has been racing to meet deadlines for 2022 deliveries in the face of supply chain and labor issues. and that may mean that 2023 delivery dates have to be pushed back >> the average household spent $433 more per month on goods and services in october than it did a year earlier that's according to a moody's analysis of october inflation data moody's says even though inflation has been coming down, the typical household is still feeling the squeeze from higher consumer prices. >> the race between raphael warnock and republican challenger herschel walker is too close to call heading into next month's georgia runoff. but there's one area where warnock has a decided advantage. new federal election commission

filings show warnock's campaign with about $29 million in cash on hand. that's almost three times as much as walker the georgia runoff vote is scheduled to take place on december 6th back to you. >> julia, thank you. julia boorstin >> retail stocks out performing this week with the etf that tracks the sector on pace for back-to-back monthly gains for the first time since mid-2021. joining me now, john san marco, he runs the firm's next generation connected consumer portfolio. good to see you. off that stat that julia brought us from moody's analytics that the american household is spending $433 dollars this month more because of inflation, how is that going to impact holiday spending >> great to see you. inflation is definitely putting a crunch on the consumer's budget, so we think there's some consumer cohorts, the higher income cohort that's positioned to do particularly well and keep categories like the luxury

category chugging along. but we think the middle end and the low end consumer is just under tremendous amount of stress and having to make very hard choices and prioritize needs over wants that favors companies like tjx that offer great value or walmart, that is selling stuff folks absolutely need. >> i'm looking at your top holdings you also have home depot in here, which i don't know, that gets caught up in the whole mortgage rate shock that we have seen and some of the other problems draftkings in is here as well. not all necessarily fitting in with that theme. talk us through some of those picks. >> it's not all defensive. we think the biggest opportunity we see in the idea behind the next generation connected consumer fund, it's a multi-decade runway, so we certainly think over the course of years, if we get exposure to the right areas that these up and coming generations gen y and

gen z, that they favor, areas they're going to spend more on, over multi-years this could provide attractive returns home depot is a name that fits in great home improvement is a bit more resilient than the broader housing complex, but home depot also just does a phenomenal job capturing new homeowners just entering into the category >> back to what's happening now, you say you like luxury and it holds up in this environment what stocks are your favorite in that space >> sure. so mont claire is the luxury goods brand that we own. we do a ton of work, analyze a ton of data around how consumers view the brand and the scarcity and the value of the brand and all of that work really checks out off the charts that this is a beloved brand with a lot of pricing power they have a clientele that's in

bea better situation to do with elevated food and gas prices and have money left over for discretionary spending another one that's a super controversial name, results have disappointed in 2022, but we feel like the worst might be behind us there as the leading online luxury destination. positioned really well as the category moves online to generate a ton of growth in the years ahead, and see great dramatic improvement in their profitability as well. >> i was going to ask about profitability for the entire sector because all we hear about is that it's going to be more promotional, higher inventories, supply chain is thawing, so we're going to see promos and we're already starting oo see deep discounts do you worry about the sector maintaining profitability? >> absolutely. that's the great question. i think discounts are already running a little hotter today as we sit here today. i suspect by the time we get to the end of holiday season, as

consumers continue to wait around and purchase closer to need, promotions will be running white hot. in the categories where there's way too much supply out there, like big ticket and certain home related categories, we would expect margins to remain under a tremendous amount of pressure. as we look out for next year, there's some cost inflation that will start to roll off, particularly freight and the inventory outlook should be much better for next year we think we could have a bounceback in margins once we get through this holiday season. >> who has got the best pricing? who's in the better position the luxury players who still have the pricing power in this environment? >> we sort of view the world -- we view our portfolio on a barbell continuum, so the luxury good names, i don't want to say they're immune from all the consumer distress today, but they're relatively insulated that's a good place to be. we also think there are retailers that actually could

benefit from consumer distress, and we own dollar tree in the portfolio, we own walmart in the portfolio, tjx is a name i flagged earlier. these are places where the consumer is trying to stretch the dollar further, the ican do so in a dollar store or at a walmart. we think both ends of the continuum will generate some winners. >> tjx today i think closed at a record high. john, thank you very much for joining me >> we're going to get some of the names of some stocks that could be nontraditional black friday winners next. plus, quadratics nancy davis on why the market's inflation expectations may be overly optimistic and what it could mean for your portfolio. and you can catch us on the go by following the "closing bell" podcast on your favorite podcast app. overtime will be right back.

black friday shopping has certainly moved beyond the traditional malls. seema modi is at an apple store. julia boorstin is reporting on the online shopping surge. >> when someone tells you you can't have something, you feel like you want it even more that's what sums up how apple

users are feeling now. by the way, this flagship store behind me just sold out of the iphone 14 pro max which has all of the bells and whistles. online, roughly 38 days, that's how long it will take to get your hands on this device. the longest wait in six years, according to channel checks for morgan stanley that's certainly frustrating customers. >> it's really crowded, and i just came here to try to buy an iphone 14 pro, but theyare all sold out >> are you frustrated? >> yeah, kind of yeah >> so i was hoping to buy the new iphone 14 with the awesome camera but unfortunately, i think it's hard to find i live in delaware we couldn't even get them a few months ago i haven't gone in yet, but that's my goal >> and you heard right there, a number of international tourists came to new york, they were hoping to get their hands on the iphone, but going away empty handed now, in total, eight million

iphones are expected to be sold this holiday weekend, down from the 10 million sold last year, according to webbush securities. analyst dan ives says lockdowns and protests in china will further incentivize apple to diversify its supply chain however, they do not see extended wait times pushing consumers to leave the apple ecosystem. he thinks the customer will stick around a few customers we spoke to had no issue buying the basic iphone 14 some even going for the iphone 13, which is cheaper right now and you can get a $50 gift card provided by apple. >> dan ives with us last hour, said nathd% of people who stay inside the apple ecosystem this will be a test if they can't get their iphones in time for the holidays let's get to julia now with how julia, meta, snap, and youtube are cashing in on black friday >> meta, snap, and youtube, we know they're struggling with an advertising contraction. now they see social shopping as

a key opportunity to lock in e-commerce advertisers and down the line diversify revenue streams. 34% of shoppers say they plan to do holiday shopping on social media this year. that's up from 28% last year and 26% in 2020, according to a survey by deloitte this drivers social commerce sales to $958 billion up from $732 billion last year meta, they're taking a new approach, offering advertisers more a.i. driven tools to help them create shopping ads they say these tools drive a 32% higher return on investment in those ads. meanwhile, snap continues to focus on augmented reality it's showcasing a new a.i.-driven ar shopping tool that uses a bot to ask snapcharts questions about the person they're shopping for. then, with voice based machine learning, they come up with custom gift ideas which they show in ar meanwhile, youtube, they're

expanding the shopping capabilities in shorts that's the short form video tiktok rival meta and nap are not taking a cut of commerce right now. they're investing in these tools to drive both advertiser and consumer engagement. youtube is going to be taking a percentage of creators' affiliate sales. sara >> julia, thank you. we do have some sad news to share this afternoon charles callalman has died well known figure in the entertainment industry and a guest on cnbc many times kopelman most recently ran entertainment. he cofounded sbk entertainment and served as chief executive of emi north america. he also held the position of chairman of steve madden, also martha stewart living on the media. he was 82 years old. we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” maybe it's perfecting that special place that you want to keep in the family...

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we are wrapping up a busy week on wall street. kristina partsinevelos here with our rapid recap. kristina >> i love the enthusiasm, sara it was a shorter holiday week, but that doesn't mean there wasn't a lot of action all three indices ended higher but volume was low because people right now may be on vacation the dow actually did hit a seven-month high and is now only down 5.5% for 2022 no longer the worst year since 2008 but the s&p 500, which i care about more because it's more representative of the market would have to hit 4,469 points,

so about 423 points away from today's close to no longer be the worst year since 2008. so all sectors close higher led by utilityies, materials, and financials energy was the weakest but still positive because oil was down about 4% on news that eu diplomats have been talking about price caps around $65 to $70 a barrel that depressed prices so far this week. then disney, the best performer on the dow after bob iger took over the company as ceo for a second time. chinese e-commerce platform jd.com down almost 12% this week the worst on the nasdaq 100. pinduoduo not far below. chinese technology has had a really rough week. talked about it a lot with eunice yoon on the network today, but beijing has pretty much come to a halt because of record covid cases and lockdowns and i want to look ahead to the week we have going on next week that's several cloud companies that are going to be reporting their earnings like crowdstrike,

workday, and snowflake back over to you >> kristina, thank you kristina partsinevelos >> still ahead, navigating the market volatility, with the s&p 500 still down more than 15% this year, nancy davis of quadratic capital shares her top strategies that investors can use to protect their portfolios in 2023. overtime back after a quick break.

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we are back in overtime. treasury yields tipping a bit higher today before pulling back slightly our next guest says she sees inflation linked treasury as value opportunity for investors. joining us now is nancy davis. why, nancy, do investors need exposure to inflation linked treasuries >> they're not in most passive indexes, so even if you have an active manager, the ag has no inflation reductive bonds and it's only short volatility because a third of the index is residential mortgages. so having inflation protected bonds is a key diversifier,

especially for those people nearing retirement or who are in retirement, because they will not benefit from wage inflation. they just have a higher cost of living and tend to have more fixed income so inflation is those things all investors should consider as part of their liquid bond portfolio. >> you have seen the highs in yields, the fed now hinting at smaller interest rate increases and potentially slowing sooner rather than later. do you agree >> you know, it's definitely unprecedented time it's crazy to think going into, you know, the last in june 2020, the fed was not even thinking about raising rating and jay powell said he wouldn't be hiking in '23, and look what happened in 2022 you had one of the tigest hiking

periods ever, and the market is expecting another 50 base point increase this year, and even another 25 for '23 but if the fed can use their balance sheet more and potentially stop hiking policy rates, that could be a high of relief for financial conditions and investors and market and help with the consumer sentiment, which is really at very low lows. >> the other part of financial conditions that gets factored in is the dollar, which has come off of its highs do you think we've seen the highs there? >> you know, it's tough to say, because it's all an interest rate differential. the bake of japan has continued their purchases, they've been very dovish and not hiking policy rates so you've seen a big appreciation of the dollar relative to the euro and the yen and i think the big question for

u.s. consumers is that who owns our debt it's the fed, number one then you have china and japan. i think the thing we really have to be concerned about is if there's going to be more turn premium priced in as more of these foreign investors re- re-evaluate their treasury and u.s. debt holdings in light of the stronger dollar. >> nancy, we appreciate it thank you for joining us here on "overtime" with the eyeball etf. just a few minutes left to vote in our twitter question we asked today, which company will win the holiday shopping season go to twitter now to vote. we'll share the results after quick break.

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it was mostly a down day on wall street. the s&p 500 and nasdaq remained little changed the dow faired better and closed at a 7 1/2 month high, up 152 points on the day. actually, on the week, it was a positive week overall for the market, with the s&p 500 gaining

a little more than 1%. small caps also closing the day a little higher. let's get the results of our twitter question we asked you which company will win the holiday shopping season? 50% of you said amazon apple gets only 12%. walmart, number two, 30% or so best buy, which was the best performing stock of the week, only 6% of the vote. it had good earnings earlier this week. it is kid's day here at the new york stock exchange. i have samuel and harrison, my own kids we haven't had a kid's day here at the new york stock exchange in a few years, before you were born we're asking all the kids today what presents you want for the holidays >> money >> nmoney? very good. >> i want a convertible. >> they're into cars and the

power rangers. they always ask me why i don't talk to them at home on tv now i'm talking to you on tv that's going to do it for "overtime. have a good weekend. happy holidays "shark tank" is next hey hear a , they'll invest their own money , or fight each other for a deal. this is "shark tank." ♪♪ narrator: first into the tank is a twist on a classic middle eastern favorite. hello, sharks. my name is jesse wolfe. i'm a ucf student from orlando, florida, and my company is o'dang hummus.