far more than just money. >> people say that white-collar crime, the impact isn't as significant as violent crime, but in some circumstances, you know, the victims experience but in some circumstances, you know, the victims experience equally tragic outcomes. -- captions by vitac -- good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines >> protesting across china as frustration flare up over the zero covid policy. the most widespread show of defiance since xi jinping became leader. crude prices slip to an

almost two-year low with the worries over the world's biggest importer. and global equity markets and europe following asia in the red and wall street poised to open lower on the first full day of trading since the thanksgiving holiday. black friday online sales topped $9 billion as consumers flock to buy now pay later platforms to offset soaring prices. widespread protests erupted in cities across china over the weekend with people taking to the streets and demonstrating

against the communist party zero covid policies protests in cities like shanghai where people called on xi jinping to step down it comes as daily covid-19 cases hit a record high for the fifth straight day topping 40,000 that number is absolutely dramatic in the context of where china has been here, joumanna. one could say that it is already a struggling economy and the tighter covid-19 policies have made things even more difficult to find any growth does this perhaps change maybe the way xi jinping's viewed as a leader overall and does it actually put him under more pressure than before now >> i think all very valid points the global markets have been focused on the covid situation in china namely because china is

a powerhouse for asia and global demand is concerned. the fact it has been locked off for a long time has had clear ramifications on the global economy and whether these protests are the beginning of something more widespread or more persistent is something that nobody knows the answer to. this is why we woken today to the risk sentiment nobody knows how long the protests will persist or how hard the authorities will crackdown. what we know about xi jinping is recently managed to reassert his leadership for another five areas. another five years in power which puts him in the longest standing position at the helm of the chinese government histo historically >> i wonder if this made meaningful impact. it is 1.4 billion people

it seems to be in the bigger demographic areas. has it actually -- because it is also hidden within china and doesn't necessarily give off the sense that it is coming across to everyone. it has been, of course, three years of tight controls which have dragged down the chinese economy with youth unemployment nearing 20%. clearly the picture on the economy has been quite negative. joumanna, you are about to point out the market is very, very negative on the back of this >> we are seeing a knock on negative effect to the chinese markets. the zhshanghai is down .75%. remember that on friday, the pboc did come out with the triple r cut hinting they must prop up liquidity. not having a material impact because of the concerns about the political situation.

s shenzhen is down .50%. and, of course, the hang seng is down 1.6 let's dive into detail the picture is bleak overall tencent down 1.1 alibaba is down 1.4. so we are seeing somewhat of a bull back. nothing extreme, but still the pull back is sizable in more than 1% or 2% here as arabile and i have been talking about, no one knows how long the demonstrations are going on for and what it means for the regulatory picture in china and how they have been focused on the developments with the tech companies. turning to the currency. it is one of weakness.

onshore dollar mmb is .40% weaker against the dollar and offshore is .15% weaker. the story is one of continued weakness we are 7 which was the question over what the pboc can do to restore stability. we are seeing vreverse impacts. this is face naturing because look at the chart. this is the chart of brent we are trading at $81. we are almost back to where we were at the beginning of the year below the levels we got to during the start of the russian invasion of ukraine. it tells you about the demand picture and how it is weighing on sentiment and commodities

let's get to the first guest of the show rory greene. thank you for joining us let me start off with your assessment of what economic impact these demonstrations will have especially when you think of the response that is likely out of the government here will they have to extend their policy of lockdowns and further testing and tracing and continue with the zero covid policy or is there an expectation they may have to start softening their stance >> good morning, joumanna. it is a really tough position for beijing. these protests are highly unusual and rare in china. you touch on the key point is the protesters want relaxation of covid-19 of the new opt

optioptimize zero covid health care policy. the reality is it is difficult for china to change response simply too many old people and not enough vac scinations produd and not enough hospitals beijing is stuck on this one we are continuing the covid 0.5. they try to optimize the lockdowns and make them more targeted the outlook for the economy is bleak. china stays in the covid coma through 2022 and 2023. it will struggle to top 1% over the next five or six months. >> we talk about the political situation with the u.s we talk about the property slowdown it seems like the main driving force for the economy going forward is whether or not it can start to reopen.

one question i have been grappling with is why the government has an issued an a vaccine mandate? >> that is the key question for china. one that no one is really sure what the answer is you speak to officials and healthcare professionals and contacts on the ground and no one is entirely sure why there isn't a vaccine mandate. it it hasn't been strictly enforced when mandates have come in at a city level the main factor behind the vaccine hesitancy is twofold one is a general mistrust for western or modern style medicine and the other is fear of underlying health conditions the co-morbidity and high blood

pressure until recently, zero covid had worked the spread is limited with the cost to the economy very high, but there was no fear factor in driving the elderly to get vaccinated that might start now covid is spreading. >> after three years, you hope, rory, china would want to have its own way to get vaccination rollout to then trust. it wouldn't be based off western images or sanctions as they know it and feel comfortable in this sense. since there -- it is effectively a faux pas for the economy does this weaken xi jinping after getting the fresh mandate for five years now >> it puts a great deal of

pressure on xi jinping we need to be careful to not overextrapolate from the pr protests they are significant and widespread and uscrucially, the first protests going in a long time against government policy and one closely associated with xi jinping they are incredibly significant. however, the coverage of them within china by censorship and control of the media has been lim limited. the news around them has not spread widely through china. nevertheless, it raises the pressure on xi jinping and i think likely put us in a more authoritarian approach to governance in china. >> ror y, the central bank did cut by .75 to free up liquidity

to free up $7 billion. could that help the the faltering economy or hold it together for the time being? >> it is more to try to put a floor on the economy and within this covid coma situation that china is in and the hit from lockdowns, particularly to consumer confidence and service sector jobs and wage growth is so high that the demand destruction for the private sector and the very weak private sector credit demand particularly related to mortgages, means the pboc monetary policy is pushing on a string they are very loose already. certainly relative to demand these rate cuts are held at the margin the measures to support the property developers will lower

the tail risk of the disorderly exit for some of the developers. in terms of react sell rating the economy, it is a covid and consumer story that will not come until q2 next year >> rory, i wonder what this means for growth we touched on it through the various conversations the last five minutes if you look at the breakdown, exports are not looking like they will be strong given the state of the global economy. we know the property sector is coming under pressure in china should the authorities want to shore up growth, what will they focus on where will they be focused >> at the moment, with covid in place, there is only one growth driver in town that is infrastructure spending. that is it the consumer is tapped out property is very weak and exports rolling over it is infrastructure that is keeping things moving.

even that has a low end multiplier than it did in pre-covid times. it is a really tricky situation. we do expect more frontloading of bond issuance there is an extra quota approved for this year already and infrastructure is running above pre-covid growth rate. infrastructure is the main driver you can see that in the equities doing well apart from that, the economy is in a very difficult state and with winter coming and flu wave and omicron, it will not improve soon int . >> rory, i appreciate it we will look at this for the remainder of the week. rory green, head of research at ts lombard. coming up on the show, crude slips to the lowest level in two years as protests in china spook

markets. we'll discuss more after the break.

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welcome back to "street signs. let's look at the market picture. red behind me. it has been the case for all of this morning seeing retreat strictly in the stoxx 600 dipping down .23%. this all comes on the back of the covid-19 protest or the protests against the zero covid policy happening out in china. of course, that has sent a few question marks around the market picture. does that negativity fall through the rest of the economy? does xi jinping re-look at his covid policies or is this a posturing in a different direction or much ado about nothing? xi jinping has received fr fresh mandate for another f five-year term

markets are in the red going down .23% for the stoxx 600. even the european markets in negative territory for the most part with the ftse 100 do down .23%. similar for cac 40 oil stocks are getting in negative territory one of the sectors that has bucked that trend has been healthcare let's look at the sectors which have been in the red as well as food and beverage going into the green with healthcare dipping in the red .20% it has been higher throughout the day. big losers here is oil and gas down 2% so far that picture is demand being the question in asia fear is demand on that side of the world will continue to dip pushing the price lower for oil and other gasses as well that's why you are seeing that price go down. pressure on the chip makers and

those have taken a bit of a hit today. smi going down nearly 1% there f fineon down .85% and question marks here with covid-19 restrictions hurting the economy and continue to do so particularly for china. restrictions have meant that manufacturing hasn't got the way they liked a lot of the automakers across europe have seen negativity with supply coming from asia would be going down it does hurt the automakers. all of these indeed in the red on to the minors with the picture depressed slightly you can see all of them except fresnillo going up .30%. rio tinto down as well

we have spoken about the oil majors those are going down 1.8%. you can tell that is because of the picture. only ng is slightly bucking the trend. more than 1% loss across most of these with 2% for total and eni. big losses across the board with chinese and asia picture still the one to look at and one to consider seeing the flaws. brent crude oil falling 4.6% last week. 4.7% for wti three consecutive weeks of declines for oil both those benchmarks which hit ten-month lows last week things have been fairly difficult out on that front.

as you can tell, this is what the picture looks like for today with brent crude oil going down 3% thus far today. that is the current picture here joumanna >> arabile, i want to pick up on something you mentioned about oil. it is back to a ten-month low. really surprising given the bullishness was expressed with the commodities in oil at the beginning of the year and once the war actually started you can see the chart we have right now tells you not only are we below what we were before the russian war kicked off, but almost back to where we were at the beginning of the year. i think a lot of this is a junction of the demand environment that we find ourselves in there were concerns that supply would be restricted because of the eu embargo on russian oil. the talk about the price cap last week was set sufficiently high enough that it actually in

many analysts eyes will not lead to too much disruption it will not hinder supply for the market coming back to demand, you have european economy on its knees. china set back now by knockdowns and flare ups and demonstrations and the u.s. to a certain extent is self sufficient it is interesting to see what happens on december 4th. the next opec plus meeting the last time they had a meeting, they decided to cut output see what happens next week and if they decide to go for further cuts knowing that there could be a possibility the economic situation does improve the beginning of the year. >> the economic picture is a continued effect on the chinese economy. we noted so many times double digits. that drop to 6%.

fair enough. we see that around the 6% figure for the last couple years. even that seems like a fair, fair way away at this point and how does xi jinping now set a different stance is going to be the other question mark now. let's look at the automakers and vw has stopped production in chengdu due to the covid wave. that has been an impact coming through from a lot of what has happened thus far and with these covid-19 policy protests happening. two production lines in the factory impacted and other plants are stable according tie spokesperson there that stock going down. >> you have to think other multinational companies in china

are figuring out how it affects them volkswagen today we talked about foxconn on friday the largest supplier for apple the ramifications on broader companies could be huge. that is why sentiment is so negative as we walked in this morning. a quick look at u.s. futures. the handover from asia and europe has been negative u.s. futures s&p down 20 points dow down 140 points lower. taking kcue from the global markets. we are expecting data from the u.s. to give more detail of the strength of the economy ahead of the holiday season investors are watching for survey of consumer confidence on tuesday and day later, adp payroll and the jolts survey which is the strength of the labor market that is leading to the initial

jobless claims and nfp on thursday and friday just ahead of the fed's last meeting this year as we head to break, one further look at european markets faring this morning. it is a day of red out there we will talk more about the china protests when we come back in a few moments we'll be right back. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels it's my secret ingredient shipstation the number 1 choice of online sellers and wolfgang puck go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free

welcome to "street signs." i'm arabile gumede >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> protests erupt across china as frustrations flare up over the zero covid policy. the widespread show of defiance on the mainland since xi jinping became leader. crude prices slipped over worry of demand from the world's biggest importer the unrest sends jitters

through the market with europe following in the red on the first full day of trade since thing thanksgiving holiday. and volkswagen has stopped production at the chengdu factory and two lines at the other factories are impacted as the covid wave hits the german carmaker our top story today is widespread protests in cities across china over the weekend with people taking to the streets and demonstrating against the zero covid policy from the government. unrest in beijing and wuhan and shanghai among others. ted kemp joins us with more. it is great to have you on set

we are usually reading your articles we can now talk in person which is a plus. let's start with the situation in china you don't see the protests happening. if they did happen, we would not be aware of them how likely is it that this is bigger and sustained and widespread >> we've talked about it earlier and it is worth repeating. this is not hong kong. this is not tiananmen. in a way this is more dangerous for the regime there it is so widespread. these regions in china are different regions from one another. shanghai is not beijing and the area in the west which is the most oppressed places on earth

and people there manage to get out to the streets and protest >> there is an element of coordination going >> i don't actually think there is so much except insofar as people are doing it on social media and they are not stamping it out quickly it is really a matter of we reached a tipping point where people can't take it anymore not just can't take being locked down, but think about it if you are not locked down, you are waiting and wondering and anxiety of when will i be locked down that is the same if you live in a flat or running a business >> is this going to lead to a change of policy the extreme view is it leads to a change of leadership, which is unlikely let's see it leads to zero covid policy how will it impact xi jinping? he put his own leadership at

stake with zero covid policy the last couple years. doesn't he lose a lot of leverage if he decides to backtrack? >> i really do not see an easy way out for him on this. it's almost unfathomable in a way, it is a similar situation with putin in ukraine. how will he work his way out of this one first, you are 100% right. there will not be regime change. that is not in the cards and not something people should be thinking about as a distinct possibility. he has, for example, china has built up the internal and a half t narrative. particularly around the world and united states and europe, we handled it and we beat it. we took action and were compliant. >> the rest of the world were

praising the authoritarian states >> people werie saying they were better at it here is something about it they tend not to innovate too much he has a largely unvaccinated older population he has vaccines that do not seem to work. he punches holes in the covid victory if he goes to moderna or pfizer or one of the vaccines, mrna that was developed in the west the report last month was china approved moderna and asked for the ip on the mrna and moderna said no. that is not the sign of a government that has the situation well in hand i don't know how they get out of it >> does this, however, weaken him? does it weaken xi jinping and does it add to the energy where,

yes, no regime change and nothing changes in leadership. you look at some of the other stories coming out with the flashes we are getting u.s. listed china shares falling. alibaba down 1.7%. jd.com slipping 2% baidu slipping 2%. apple is down in pre-market trading. yes, we have the market factors, but internally as well as a leadership does this weaken him and in and amongst his contingent and leadership style >> it doesn't -- the vw news is significant. if you had disruption to the supply chain, you move it elsewhere. that was beginning to happen in 2016 vietnam has been a beneficiary i'm not saying that china is

going to lose its manufacturing base because they have a manufacturing ecosystem that is present there. it does weaken his hand when people -- when you're the boss, you call the shots you also take all the blame. >> final question. how much of this is about covid and how much of this is about the economy? the two are hand-in-hand looking at the profits data that came out over weekend. they dropped 3% in the first ten months of 2022 china no longer publishing monthly data you only get data year to date lumped together. what is happening under the tent >> the pmi number for october that came out looked bad and blamed on covid. guess what covid has gotten worse the november pmi is probably likely to be -- all of the sub index in the pmi all were going in the wrong direction except materials costs.

raw materials costs of they will burn margins on both ends they will get less money for what they put on the back end. it is interesting to see what it looks like this month for pmi. >> ted, great to have you with us and interactive chat about china. we can talk more we are running out of time ted kemp just in the last couple minutes, we have gotten news out of barclays. they have put out a statement with respect to the ceo. the ceo venkatakrishnan will undergo treatment for non-hodgkin lymphoma he said the treatment is likely to last from 12 to 16 weeks. during that treatment period, the company will run normally. the ceo will continue to be

actively engaged in managing it. that is the word from barclays ceo undergoing cancer treatment. we wish him well >> we do wish -- the name as well can get difficult venkatakrishnan. we will have a weak recovery in 2024. that is according to the latest forecast from unicredit. it expects inflation to ease across europe and u.s. with the ecb and fed likely to tighten policies before cutting rates in 2024 marco is the economist at unicredit and joins us now it has been a year where 2022 has been described as inflation if you were to use one word. does that mean 2023's word is

recession? >> i would say disinflation. recession, yes, it is already here in europe we are going to probably see a mild recession in the u.s. it is not going to be severe because we have a lot of safety nets and fiscal support. we have tight labor markets and easing bottlenecks we don't expect recession. i would bet more on disinflation inflation will start in 2023 pretty high. 10% in europe and bit lower in the u.s. by the end of 2023 and the forecast and views on inflation is down to 2.5% and maybe down to 3% in the u.s disinflation is going to be a key theme for next year. >> how close are we to peak rates? if disinflation is the term we use then, surely we are reaching almost the peak of that. does that mean we are hearing

peak rates as well >> peak rates would be reached at the end of the first quarter next year. the fed at 5% and ecb at 2.75% bank of england at 4%. then i think we should be expecting some quarters of steady policy by major central banks. in 2024, with the progress of inflation more evident and we will see price stability across the board and the fed cut interest rates, maybe by 150 by 2024 the ecb and bank of england to follow suit in 2024. >> marco, i want to give you two data points. one with respect to volkswagen the automaker announced their production in chengdu factory has been halted or disrupted due

to the flare up in coronavirus we had a similar situation in foxconn which is the apple supplier it seems we have been talking about bottlenecks easing in the global supply chain. with what is happening in china, is it fair to assume the bottlenecks will arise again >> this is a fair question certainly it is a risk the issue here is the global environment is different this time we are very likely to see some disruption coming from the latest closure in china. at the same time, the demand for manufactured goods is not as strong as it used to be in previous episodes of chinese lockdowns. we have clear evidence that goods inflation is on its way down and this to a large extent reflects fade in demand where in the u.s. where consumption of goods were extremely strong

during the pandemic. now we have payback for that and we have adjustment in commodity prices to me, the latest disruption brings about some headwinds. it is probably unlikely to take us back where we were when we were usdiscussing a major suppl chain strain this is different this time and this is an important thing to keep in mind. >> continuing on with disinflation theme, how would you describe or characterize the differences with the u.s. prer s the european inflation the demand pull against the supply side. it is cost push. >> absolutely. this is a key difference despite the key difference, i think we should be looking for differences in the disinflation

trend going forward. disinflation is going to come from goods first and services at the later stage. in the u.s., it is clear it will come down and will continue that weaken in the u.s., this is not yet visible. it will be visible within the incomes next few months. we see in the eurozone with inflation. it will require a bit of slack to open up in the labor market especially in the u.s. where most of the strength is demand driven and also have a lot of persistence in the rents inflation. this will take longer to fade. if you look at the rates in the market, it will turn with the lag, we will see rates inflation and overall services inflation coming off as well

one very important thing here is how the labor market will respond to the mild recession or slowdown this is key for the central banks. central banks want slower growing and potentially recession to make sure the labor market gets balanced now, if we keep seeing tight labor markets into the down turn, i think the disinflation story which i commented about, we may see risk to the upside. in my focus, we have adjustment in the labor market and supply and demand with labor and this will facilitate easing with the price pressure. >> marco, thank you for bringing us your thoughts and outlook for 2023 chief european economist another look at the market picture which is sitting in

negative territory it has certainly come back ever so slightly. not as red as we saw earlier on. .50% weaker for the ftse 100 the oil and gas sector is still going down more than 1.5%. negativity across most of europe to the currency picture. we have seen the pound come back and be a little stronger as you see with that now at 121 against the u.s. dollar. perhaps weakness for the u.s. dollar across more of the currencies against the euro, you are seeing strength .50% against the dollar. and that picture does look to be headed lower as well for the futures as we head to the opening stance for the u.s more than 150 points possibly lost for the dow jones industrial average as we head to that opening coming up on the show, adobe

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welcome back u.s. black friday online sales hit a new record this year coming in at $9 billion according to adobe that is a 2.3% increase on the year as consumers deal with the high rate of inflation since the early 1980s. the figure represents ab blurrin of the line with black friday and counterpart on cyber monday. the data shows big box retailers like walmart and macy's hired fewer workers this time around in-store traffic rose 2.9% compared to preliminary data. and shoppers are expected to spend more today with adobe forecasting $11.2 billion

windfall for retailers let's bring in hugh fletcher great to have you with us. great to look at the initial signs in the u.s adobe with 2.3% expansion on sales. here in uk, transactions risen 2% from last year. questions for you, are these nominal or real sales? inflation is higher today than one year ago >> i think you have to take the stance the initial data coming out it has been positive sales on black friday and that carries to cyber monday i think we have to be a bit more cautious perhaps some consumers concentrating on black friday making sure they get deals and get the gifts for loved ones

whether that will continue to q4, we have to wait and see and we need to be more pessimistic than the numbers initially suggest. >> it feels every year the shopping event is bigger and bigger in the uk, we don't scelebrate thanksgiving, but we celebrate black friday or cyber monday i wonder what it means for retailers and ability to get rid of inventory before the holiday at full cost as a consumer, i change how i shop if i know there are sales on black friday and cyber monday i'll wait to get my shopping done >> absolutely. that is what we have seen. consumers have waited for the black friday period to make the purchase to shop for loved ones and do christmas shopping. i think what we see every year

is the time going of black friday is great whether it is thanksgiving or christmas. the deal hungry consumers get paid on the last friday of the month and want to buy christmas presents and ready to make the deals. great time to go into shops and go online and make purchases >> hugh, does this create a more educated black friday consumer or black friday weekend consumer as well? you are looking at prices head-to-toe. is this a reflection of people wanting to get stuff as we pointed out for christmas time >> you are right educated consumers the impending financial situation which is coming and uncertainty which we experienced means we are more savvy. i think consumers are researching and considering what they are buying and the price. we have seen retailers being clearer about the discounts.

we hear every year about concerns and disbelief of some of the discounts lots of retailers are showing discounts and being transparent and enabling consumers to make better decisions >> in trying to do that, retailers need to look after this bottom line does that seem to still be the case >> i think it is going to be a challenging time for lots of retailers. while black friday stats are very positive, but we need to look at what happens in the post black friday in the run up to christmas and into january there will be retailers heavily discounting based on large amount of inventory. they want to shift ahead of a tough 2023 >> hugh, i don't know if you have the answer to this question feel free to say you don't i'm wondering whether this year at all would be influenced by the world cup occurring around this time of year and the big

england match also on black friday >> well, initial data tells us this has given us a boost and increased foot falling in physical stores and people going out and celebrating the game and watching the game for england. we have seen a rise in foot fall in physical stores i had a colleague who went out and said it was rammed in stores there is a bit of a world cup effect it has been a bit weird having a world cup in december and november, but i think it may have given a boost to the high street consumer as they head out to celebrate the game and watch in the pub. >> are the lines blurred, hugh you have the two massive shopping days. one is meant to be brick and m mo mortar and one online. you see it happening online. does that blur the weekend in

terms of which segment of the business works better whether it is online or in store? >> yeah. i think the black friday/cyber monday division is over as we have seen online deals since the beginning of november. consumers shopping for those retailers have to get a larger share of wallet and need to start deals earlier. cyber monday was when online purchasing is happening, but now 73% is happening online. it really is not a big division as before. >> hugh fletcher joining us. thank you so much for the time i appreciate it. quick look at the u.s. futures ats we head to the open. we could lose 200 points with

dow jones industrial average and apple falling in the pre-market trading more of the china shares going down with baidu slipping this morning. tencent also feeling a bit of the heat today following all those protests with the zero covid policy happening outside in china alibaba is getting a hit on u.s. listed shares. that brings us to the end of the show my name is arabile gumede. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month

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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. the stocks shifting after the dow did something for the first time since april. and in whchina, protesters r taking to the streets to call for xi jinping to step down. we are live in beijing. and shoppers out in full force as black friday sales hit a record. more fallout with adidas