a miniature berkshire hathaway five and change percent used, less than ten times earning. we get salesforce this week. you were considering it. >> i don't need to be that much of a hero. let's see the earnings come out. thank you, too i'll see you if "o.t." "the exchange is now welcome, everything, protests in china over the tight restrictions, it is affecting everything from oil to the market, to even apple. apple's workers, by the way in china are angry, rightfully so we're going to log into all of the different angles, a geo political story. plus, congress is back for potentially action-packed session.

>> the dow industrials, by the way, are at session lows, down 358 points, similar percentage loss for the s&p 500 now decently below that market, now down 45 points similar percentage move, 11,107 the last trade there

china is having an outsized effect u.s. benchmark prices hit $73.67 the 73 ham, we're bouncing up to 77 and change, so a big move higher off the lows. a reason why some traders might have gotten bullish, at that price for crude prices, you're talking about the lowest level going all the way back to around christmastime of last year, so greater than one-year lows on crude oil prices another play to keep a close eye on, is what's happening overally with the cryptocurrencies. in the wake of another high-profile bankruptcy filing, this time from blockfi that's having a ripple effect on other parts of the market as well obviously bitcoin and ether are holding, but coinbase is down,

generally feeling the ripple effects of the ftx we'll keep an eye on those we mentioned china, they're not necessary taken down china -- chinese equities pin duo duo, up about 1% to 2% alibaba is up 1% as well there's at least a developing story, a tug of war, if you will, whether or not the unrest in china could present a poten potential buys opportunity. >> dom chu, let's get to that. highly unusual protests breaking out in the country over the weekend as demonstrators vented the frustration with the government's handling of the covid-19 and the so-called

covid-zero policy, despite the insane policy, which obvious included locking people inside their own homes, covid case are soaring. three years of strict control has put major stress on china's economy, no doubt its citizens' mental health and ramifications are being felt all over the world. even apple is being impacted protesters revolting at foxconn, an apple supplier. it's not more clear, how will china proceed? we'll ask derek scissors, the senior fellow at the america enterprise institute being forcibly locked in their

homes for nearly three years, unable to see loved ones who are dying in the hospital. humanitarian angle aside, do you think that president xi and his party are at any risk from these protests, or will they be just put down like china has done with so many others in the past? >> brian, it's a very good question i agree with you this has been a tough way to try to make a living, try to survive in china i think what we're seeing is citizens at their breaking point. this will cause some anger, some embarrassment perhaps for xi jinping, but i don't believe his authority is at risk, brian. he has vanquished all of the people who could take advantage of some of this dissent in the streets. there's no competition in the higher ranks, and no one, therefore, to act on all of the

anger we are seeing in the streets. i think we are going to see attempts to quietly suppress this as i said earlier, china has a number of tools at its disposal. it's not just a physical manifestation, they are all sorts of high-tech monitoring, biometrics, geolocation software, so we're going to see this slowly cool down. >> it's just unbelievable to think about how they're living, when they're watching, you knee, the world cup and 70,000 people are in a stadium, or even their own president meeting tess recent g20 with a mask off, speaking to other world leaders. they see that. derek, if that's the case, there's two ways to see this going. do you think the chinese government may bend or go the

other way, and we're going to to show you, you want to protest, we'll make it worse. you can't see them doing that. >> they often respond by paying off the protesters, hand out a little money to angry workers. that doesn't work here, because what they want is on opening up, which is a much bigger decision than borrowing some money and giving it to people. i agree that xi jinping's authority is not in dangers, but the decisionmaking is in question this stems from his mistakes in 2 2020 now their citizens see the rest of the world has move on and china hasn't we're in a period of a lot of volatility this is a fundamentally political decision it should be a health decision, but it's not, because it involves xi jinping's prestige

>> does the u.s. take a role in this >> i think if we chose to take a role, it would be high risk. to put pressure, use propaganda, as you mentioned, the chinese people are see xi jinping not wearing a mask they're seeing the world cup that is a high-risk strategy to put pressure i think the u.s. should probably step back, talk about our wonderful vaccines that xi jinping refused to export, but not pressure china such that we have a major role. >> do you agree with that ward eric >> i agree with derek. i think we have to be careful not to allow xi jinping to -- we're already hearing the foreign actors influencing, but we have to be careful how we

respond to this. we're also seeing that the central government is shifting blame to the local authorities, and saying for the local authorities, you need to stick to the playbook that we introduced in the 20-point plan on november 11th they are strictly banning the use of chains, padlox, other physical borders to stop protesters from leaving, but i think it's too little too late i think, brian, people see this as political control, not pandemic control so i think the train has left the station on this. >> i think this is the hypocrisy of the united states we know china has forced labor camps, with uighurs, numerous reports of them being forced to make things like cheap solar panels to sell around the world,

perhaps clothing, yet we want to grow out our renewable policy, buy cheap china-made goods while this is happening. we the tariffs on the country, but should we take a stronger approach to say, listen, we want renewables, we want solar panels, at least made in country with his humane working conditions how do we broach this? i think these a hypocrisy here, to be honest. >> i think you raise a fair point. i will point out that the administration and congress worked together to put in the uflpa, the protection act to try to target some of the issues that you raise with respect to supply chains supporting this type of behavior we could see more of this if these protests turn violent. but i think the administration, and certainly the 117th congress

and likely the 118th congress will look for way to say tighten the screws here, but businesses are stuck with china as their only option in their supply chain. i think this has been a mistake, one that's going to have to be corrected. i know it's easier said than done, but i think we're saying that it's time for businesses to look for a way to decrease their dependence on china. >> and the inflation reduction act does put a lot of money in tax credits to try to build out -- we're looking at lithium mines here they control a lot of the minerals it's going to take years, even decades, assuming we do it, ko com compete. what do we do in the meantime?

do we keep buying the stuff as we watch a family burned to death because they were locked inside >> i think these conversations tie together xi jinping is not going to change his spots once you september that, there's not some wonderful improvement later in chinese human rights conditions, which means the u.s. needs to be acting in and out. we needed to be acting years ago, as was just said, but we need to act now. the way to do that is to recognize you can't compete with the chinese on subsidies you have to decide we don't want certain products from china, and we need to build up the capability of our partners hoping it will get better in five years isn't going to work covid is a clear example of that >> the ironie is we've got our own subsidies, which is ticking off europe europe is now mad that we're

subsidizing you're own industries to combat china, it will hurt them, but we'll leave that for a different segment or show we really appreciate your views, guys on deck, our next guess says what's old is new again. congress is back, but what exactly will get done before the big turnover in the house, a look at the impact "the exchange" back after this

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welcome back to "the exchange." this year has been pretty bad for most of tech you're next guest does not mean you need to steer clear, but to find nice new returns, you may want to go decidedly old school. old big blue, ibm, up 10%. texas instruments down 7%. cisco is down 22%, but it's star better than some of the steep losses we have seen like from the amazons or facebooks of the

world. losing less is the new making money. for more we're joined by david bonson, founder of the bonson group. what is old is new again ibm, one of the best-performing tech stocks in all the land. were you surprised did you call this? >> i'm not surprised we've owned it for quite a while. it's up 7% it had a great ending last year, but it's also yielding about 5% in dividend as well. ibm has been a big winner, even with cisco, about a 3.2 different yield, double the market's dividend. even though it's down on the year, it's down much less, and actually up about 8%, 9% in the last few weeks. >> what is good about it what is ibm doing right?

or is it like a safety stock, where people are temporarily parking money to find something else >> yeah, no, it's a good question, brian, but the answer is, with cisco, with ibm and intel, all three have the same story. there's a business that kicks off a ton of free cash flow. great balance sheet, low debt, a lot of cash, they generate a lot of money, but it isn't high growth then they have a growth business that's a free call, in ibm's case, it was the red hat operation, so they're a leading company in the cloud that's the formula up versus the big faang stocks that were dependent on the multiple expanding forever. it just doesn't work that way. >> texas instruments down 7%, but, you know, in retrospect, it

doesn't look too bad, and it's not necessarily new or sexy, but maybe that is the points, david. >> i would point out, with intel, their whole reason for being down, is because of what they're doing for the future we happened to like it, but we knew it would be capital intensive and the market doesn't like it right now, but the companies like texas instruments and so forth, intel will become a manufacturer of these semico semiconductors they're going from chip design to chip manufacturing, arizona, ohio plans are being built as you talk a lot about it's going to be a great story, but it's going to take some time. >> what are you expecting -- i guess it's that time of the year, david, when they start talking about next year. this year stunk. what do you think will happen in 2023 >> well, first of all, you're forcing me to say that this year

didn't stink for us. we're up on the year with dividend growth. that's my answer about next year that's what we do, is dividend growth it's not meant to be in season at all times i don't care that this year happened to be a shining great year for dividend growth we like it all the time. right now where people need free cash flow, growing income to counteract inflapgs, you'll start to see yields go down next year in the bond market, and in my opinion, dividend growth is where you said to be you'll get better balance sheets, less volatility, and more predictable cash flows. the areas that will hurt are this year, anything relies on multiple expansion, even when the market stops going down, which maybe that's happened already, but p/e ratios are not going back it's just not going to happen next year. >> you see what i did this

kind of nice congrats, by the way this year has not been easy. >> thank you >> david bahnsen, have a great day. >> thank you, brian. do not miss the kickoff event today at 2:00 p.m. eastern time on your second screen ark invest cathie woods will join the great dom chu you have cnbc on one screen, protalks on the other. wednesday is with leon cooperman and a guy named brights sullivan coming up, oil a bit higher, but hitting the lowest level in nearly a year. the key catalyst for crude that could send the economy on a roller coaster right but first steve liesman as a miatn ste into the broken

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to realize independent mvps are having a great holiday season. wells fargo upgrades activision there was a report on friday that the ftc mail time a lawsuit against the deal with microsoft. macau casinos are mostly hire after linen withs licensese renewed. tyler has our update. election official recougss promise dent republicans in the state raising doubt downs about

ballot drops all voters put their ballots in those boxes. for the first time since 1984, the world's largest active volcano has erupted. officials say mauna loa's volcano does not threaten communities. jill biden chose the theme "we the people" to remind we are stronger in community than we are apart. brian, back to you. still ahead, congress, it is back to work, and democratic lawmakers are rushing to pass bills before the balance of power shifts in january. 'll look at the issues on the agd agenda, what it means for the markets and your money that's next.

all right. welcome back to "the exchanges." congress is officially back in session. don't let the name lame duck deceive you. the top priority -- funding billing to keep the government

running past december 16th among other items, make codifying national abortion rights, same-sex and interracial marriage as well as the electoral count act. but there's a rail strike, and recently the fallout of ftx. our next guest, ed mills, managing director. what would be congress's job one? >> job one is keep the lights on, fund the government. it is an expiration date of december 16th. they'll probably punt it one week up to the 23rd. they always want to get home for christmas. getting that done, getting the defense act reauthorized, but this is for democrats, there's a couple must-do respect, the respect for marriage act,

electoral college count act that they want to get done before they give up the majority in the house in the beginning of january of it's the push and pull between the things they absolutely have to get done, versus what they absolutely want to get done. for republicans it's trying to figure out who the next speaker is, so the deal-makingent especially in the house is pretty low, but it won't be that much of a lame duck after all. >> do yowill we get more fundinr ukraine? >> i think well will funding for the hurricane damage in florida, ukraine, more covid funding, maybe outside the box could be the safe banking act, which allows banks to handle cannabis-related businesses. so there's a lot in that bill that will get done.

>> i tweeted it out. partial there was a letter last march, the prospect put out a letter over the weekend, i think eight people in congress -- four republicans, four democrats -- basically wrote a her back off ftx and crypto five of the eight of them reportedly took political donations from ftx or its employees. it doesn't look good at all. >> no. >> and you can draw your own conclusions. will we get any meaningful legislation, or is the crypto so in the d.c.? >> i think whether we have a crisis, that gets congress's attention. you highlight that group of house and senate members of congress that were asking about that, that adds to some of the drama here, but the reality is

that there is a strong desire to do something they just don't know what that something is there's jurisdictional battles between, is it a commodity a security that gets to who writes the bill in congress. that's a big issue things that tilt me in the maybe something gets done, there are a significant need for consumer protections, and we also don't want to let china run forward with this, and set the rules, especially in the payment space. we don't want to see europe set the rules, so there's an america-first desire here to get this done, but there's still a lot of members of congress that are happy to watch this kind of implode, and they're sitting back and say thankfully we did not let this into the banking system, it didn't become a sis tismic risk. so that group will be cautious to make sure any regulation that gets down doesn't further legitimize digital assets from a

d.c. perspective that could cause problems later on. >> we reached out to every congress person, i believe, who has taken money from ftx some said they gave it to charity, some haven't gotten back to us, some have gone dark. my wife asked me a question last night that i'm%ed to say i had no answer to she said, can congress step in -- she's a consumer products, she cares about supply chains. can congress step in and fix this rail strike basically prevent them from striking i do not know the answer to that question, so i punted. do you >> yeah. the answer is, yes, congress does have the authority. they have used it in the past. the last train out of the station probably before congress goes home for christmas is the defense authorization bill, so it's easy to see the last train out of the station is going to ensure there's not going to be a

rail strike here in december a lot of things that the biden administration is doing with the unions as well, but in that defense authorization, we're also looking at an energy permitting bill. this could potentially be a fight with opec, a whole lot of tax provisions, so your wife is extremely smart to ask that question, and you should have just said yes and look it up later. [ laughter ] >> that's gotten me in trouble a lot of times on the television, so i just have smart people like you to answer the question what's your phone number i'll call you next time. >> i'll give it to you off-line. >> thanks, ed. that strike is a big deal. broken borders, but we're launching a special series on america's big problem with legal immigration, and how much it's costing companies and the economy. you don't want to miss it, next.

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all right. welcome back today we begin a three-part special series called "broken legal immigration" in america. the goal is to look at the a antiquated system. steve liesman has the story. >> for most americans, the immigration debate focuses on the illegal side, how to secure the border from the millions of undocumented immigrants who enter the u.s. every year and how they should be treated once they arrive, but america has a massive legal immigration problem, withfar-reaching consequences experts say the antiquated system is broken, especially in the vital medical and technology sectors.

the broken system pushes up inflation, and experts say its role is making illegal immigration worse. >> i think we're going to have a bigger catastrophe if we don't get more workers into our society and we do it by immigration. >> reporter: the biggest game between job openings and available workers in post war history is one of the key reasons inflation is soaring an increase in foreign-born workers ko raise -- in rural communities, there's wait times, hospital closures, even health outcomes for the country, the crisis may be causing america to lose the contest for the best and the brightest around the world, a contest that could mean losing its technological edge immigration attorney beau cooper says, among his clients, he -- >> that's a loss to our economy. the legal immigration system is meant to serve the u.s. national

interests by allowing us to import intellectual talent to fill our skill needs. >> how bad is the legal immigration system this year 48,000 employers asked to bring in 484,000 skilled workers under the h 1 b program, but they were just granted 85,000 approvals, our one out of every six applications, normally it's one out of every two or three. >> our system is designed for an era in american history that does not exist anymore a lot of the programs that were designed were created back in the '90s our immigration system desperately needs to be upgraded. >> that's especially true in the wake of the pandemic which saw an increase in retirees and others leaving the work force. the result, a shortfall of as 78 as 1.6 milline legal imgrants.

there's only about 6 million unemployed about a third of that gap, experts say, is the lack of foreign workers. foreign-born are only 12% of the population, but roughly 40% to 50% of the stems, so staying at this level about leave legitimate jeopardy dies the u.s. growth. >> next installment, a life- or death in rural areas because of the -- >> they got 85 what the hell happened >> it all backed up. that was the one thing during the pandemic. >> okay. >> this began under the trump administration before the pandemic they made a conscious effort to reduce legal immigration pandemic happened, they closed

it down entirely biden administration was slow to bring it by, guess what? irony, my friend they didn't have the workers in the embassies to process the visas. they still don't, and if they kept going at the current rate, it will be years until they get rid of the backlog for foreign workers. >> okay. how long could this backlog take on >> estimates are it would take years to solve this. 1.6 million workers. brian, if you were an employer and you had identified a candidate in india, china, anywhere that you wanted to bring in for a job right now, you would be lucky to bring them in by october next year. it's now a 17-month wait now, is my understanding. >> it goes to the hospitals, like you said. >> unbelievable. >> especially. there's so many amazing nurses and doctors from the philippines, from india, they

come over here, and they keep us alive. this is a life or death issue. >> if you want to tear your hair out on this issue -- >> i got very little. >> i got none, in part working on the story, because it's way worse than what i thought it would be there's several hundred thousands workers here that can't work as medical workers because of licensing and training issues at the state and federal level. >> like, you take an uber -- i annoy them sometimes, and you find out they're an m.d. in whatever nation, and they're trying to get certified. wait a minute, we have a healthcare shortage, a crisis. >> and back to an issue that some people complain about that it drives down wages it does not, especially on the skilled sets you think about the closures of hospitals, think about the people who lose their jobs because the hospitals close. the doctors come in, making the highest wage, they're not competing with anybody

there's an open job for that person not being taken by an american as several people have told us, there's multiple ways to ensure that u.s. workers are not undercut >> and for our audienc are snotty, but they're losing aim their people to cash-only businesses i want to do it right, but every cost is going up, meantime the cash guy, who is probably not insured and is, you know, putting people's lives at risks, he can do it cheaper >> it's a big issue. >> it's an important story can you give us a preview? >> tomorrow we'll look at the in depth of the technology and medical fields on the third day, thursday, we'll be talking about solutions to the problem they're never going to get to an overall solution, but there's low hanging fruit that washington all to be looking at

to at least solve part of the problem. >> i'm sure part will be we need $500 million more in our budget, that will fix everything [ laughter ] it's still too early for snark. more on oil. we're going to lay out all the stuff, and one technician says, despite it all, there's still room to run. stick around

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welcome back let's talk oil and china the growing protests over lockdowns are playing havoc with the market the prices are rising now, with a concern that opec will probably cut supplies at its meeting on sunday. what is china's role in the global market? they consume about 15.5 million barrels a day, about 15% of total global demand. of those, about two thirds, 9.5 million or so are impacted much of that is coming from places like russia now, with the lockdowns, the demand has gone down, imports down about 5% this year.

while that may not sound like a lot, in the global oil markets, it is. the international energy agency says if china ever fully reopens it could swing global demand by about 2 million barrels a day. it sees the potential high, and that is if china's economy gets going full blast if not, demand could stay flat or even drop in fact, opec's latest monthly report shows a projected drop from china it meets again on sunday, and one wonders would this push them to reduce production again all right. despite all of this pressure on oil prices lately, energy stocks are outperforming the market it's by far the only s&p sector

as a whole, up more than 60% our next guess says the momentum will likely continue ari walt, what's been fascinating to watch and for the first time in a lock time, the oil in a positive wa from the price of oil itself >> oh, that's definitely the case it's the fact that they've shown as much strength as they have despite this significant run-up in the u.s. dollar we've seen this year and subsequent slowdown in the commodity rise like we saw first half so, yeah an established momentum idea it was a sector that was leadership into the summertime lows leadership into q3 lows and maintained its leadership through the upturn in the equity cycle in recent weeks. an important point, too. rising tide on all boats appears the market cycle while it hasn't broken out yet is

positioned to do so as the s&p comes into its 200-day average doing so with broadening internal braeth and a rising market should provide additional lift for the sector, any part that looks better than other parts? love them, but they're different. >> yeah. you know, broadly speaking, it's the emp side we're seeing a structural shift take place in the charts the stocks that broke above their peak levels from 2014, 2018 and 2020 as well. so just as a fair trade as we see bifurcation immersion. sell service on strength, buy emp on weakness. one pocket of that subindustry level is the strength we're seeing in oil refiners relative to the sector it's a group that's taking on a leadership role yet again. i think points about that, group one. breaking above levels from 2018. flat that subhistory relative to the sector versus a leading

energy sector just starting to turn higher a reclaim what we see as structural outperform stock gets above summertime high as well. >> a stock we don't talk about much love the ticker, h sinclair. a dinosaur a mostly west chain ticker, dyno alluding to the fact dine osaur juice at the mo fundamental level and a chart that looks really, really solid. >> broadness of it, right? philips 66 and valero and it is marathon petroleum all four stocks within that oil refining subindustry telling right there. when strength in that group is driven by one or two stocks but across the board charts tell a story there and we're paying attention a lot of those names have either already broken above summertime

highs or we think are positioned to do so so for those reasons we do see a high conviction breakout of play. >> kind of sell thechlumbergers? >> you run risk with a long-term down trend picking back up. >> ari wald, good stuff. see you soon. we mentioned opec sunday yes, sunday meeting. thanks, opec a lot going on with oil in the next week or so. okay not only do we have china concerns a calendar what's coming up. december 1st, couple days from now, spr sale, latest one. 15 million barrels between 1st and 15th of the month. that's start up. certainly contributing some of the lower prices december 4th is that opec meeting in vienna, austria russia is expected to be there on december 5th, the monday, the

full oil sanctions from the european union are expected to kick in. now, we mentioned, look at that graphic, on the radio one, tvd price cap. talk of a price cap but fighting over the price so we don't know if we're get one and if so what the price will be. spr sale, opec plus meets, monday the full oil sanctions, maybe. then price cap headed over to that opec meeting over the weekend with live coverage's that. impending sanctions all next week talk about whether or not the u.s. can almost single-handedly save europe next year with no russian gas, call it a marshall plan for energy. talk about russia's ghost fleet. going to be a big week all next week. all right. speaking of oil. talk automobiles maybe car buyers rejoicing a bit because the market may finally be getting on a road back to

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welcome back i want to get one more thing before we go that is auto sales looks like finally starting to normalize, dealers and buyers on the road joining us to look at trends phil >> reporter: trends are encouraging if you're in the market for a new or used vehicle. that doesn't mean we're going back to where things were pre-pandemic but the trends in terms of average transaction price, average incentive, amount of inventory, all of that is improving's get the final numbers later this week. rbc capital estimating incentive going up slightly. average transaction price dip under $4,600 inventories 33, 34-day range, well below where it was

pre-pandemic november sales coming in somewhere between 14.4 and 14.6 million. in a normal market, this time of year it would probably be closer to 16.5 to 7 million for all of 2022, sale pace is currently at 13.7 million. take a look at the auto dealers stocks showing you auto nation in group one comparing it with carmax and carvana. why? show you definitely a split when it comes to those who deal primarily with used vehicles those compared to -- compared to those in the new vehicle market. one last chart for you, brian. tesla. why show tesla big week for tesla investors hope 0ing when the company delivers its first tesla semi truck thursday night, that at that presentation that will hear from elon musk haven't heard much from him when it comes to tesla, really, in the last several months. we'll see if that hat changes on thursday night, brian. >> supply chains getting better?

>> yes -- but it's still not robust it's -- it's fragile not as fragile as six months ago, but nobody in the industry is completely comfortable with where it's at. >> yeah. cars basically just computers with wheels and an engine, at this point you need those microchips. phil lebeau, thank you very much. that does it for us. "power lunch" is next. thank you and welcome, everybody to "power lunch" along with morgan brennan i'm tyler mathisen here's what's ahead. china's covid chaos. protests mount against the country's virus restrictions the effects rippling through global markets on this monday. we will look at the impact on stocks, commodities, tech and american companies operating in that country plus, inflation looms over holiday spending we'll talk to a former industry insider who says it may be tim