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tv   Squawk Box  CNBC  November 29, 2022 6:00am-9:00am EST

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chasing profitability. navy pants looks like a uniform navy navy pants tuesday, november 29th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen andrew is off today of let's look at the equities yesterday was a rough day for the markets. it was the worst day for the three major indices since november 9th dow down 500 appoipoints
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we will see today. dow futures up 25 points s&p up 10 and nasdaq up 59 if you are watching treasury yields, all of the yields were under pressure and they continue 10-year treasury at 3.653% 2-year treasury at 4.246%. crude oil was down to $74. the lowest levels since december of last year we ended up higher by 1.2% this morning, up 2.6%. all the way back to $79. we have been below $75 and touching to $80 in a span of 24 hours. we will talk to helima croft about that move in a few minutes. >> not sure who to believe in terms of opec plus or the saudis yesterday, it was no way increasing supply. that was yesterday
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then everyone said who believed the first sort -- it was not a well sourced -- we don't know if they ever proposed increases they just cut. they just cut. >> there have been strange political moves with the biden administrationing offering proper tec protection everybody looks behind the scenes >> i was reading yesterday that anyone who believed the first rumor was crazy. $80 is better than $120. not as good as $50 obviously. to china, calm returns after weekend protests authorities provided an update on vaccination plans for the elderly. something we taulked about yesterday. eunice yoon joins us from beijing. hi, eunice >> reporter: joe, the authorities said they have made
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some progress with the vaccination of the elderly they say it is 65.8% for those who are over the age of 80 and those are the people who would have one shot. better than before they said they are ramping up the vaccination drive. however, there was no discussion of a mandate that is something that a lot of experts believe that china would need to try to overcome their vaccine hesitancy here the authorities had also not directly acknowledged the protests in any way, but did acknowledge there were complaints about covid curbs saying the issue is the implementation and excessive implementation of the covid curbs, but not covid restrictions it is telling thaws beijing is sticking by the zero covid approach while mitigating the more egregious measures. what was interesting today and
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really investors latched on to and gives us a sense or window into the mindset and sentiment is the unverified discussion that the leadership has been drafting a new narrative to try to get themselves out of zero covid, but in a face saving way for the communist party. the discussion here and again unverified rumors is that xi jinping asked the propaganda chief to draft the narrative the story would be bf.8 would be similar to the flu, and now is a time to exit and the communist party would then declare it saved 6 million lives and it has achieved great things over the past three years unverified interesting because the current variant in beijing is bf.7
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also, it kind of touches on what the chinese government needs to do to try to redirect the propaganda from what it currently is among the public that the virus is incredibly scary and we need to struggle and survive and they have to redirect this propaganda to say that mission accomplished. we have been able to do it the question is how do you do that you need to have some sort of propaganda narrative first in order to try to really exit. then you have to deal with the potential public health fallout. that would come later. guys. >> no way to know, eunice, whether the relative calm is because the people that might be inclined to protest are -- some of the measures have satisfied some of their concerns or whether it is just not a good idea to really protest
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i know that there are -- go ahead. >> reporter: i was going to say on the surface, for sure, there is this relative calm. a lot of that is because the police presence has been quite heavy. not only in beijing, but around the areas where the protests had happened, but in shanghai and that is true in other cities where the protests were and also protesters were getting contacted by the authorities and being detained and a lot of discussion online and among protesters that there are moron come checks outside of malls and transport hubs where authorities will tell you to open your phone and look to see if you have a vpn which is illegal here for certain people here. then to jump the firewall. and foreign apps they want to see if you have
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youtube or other telegram which is an in encrypted messaging app that protesters use. that is another reason why you see this. >> i wasn't going to bring that up just reading that the police can say give me your phone and look to see what you have been doing and which apps you have. i don't know it is something we probably -- >> reporter: we were hearing reports they were typing in the first character in chinese and they type in the character and see what your discussion was it is getting to that level. >> right i can't imagine. we have no conception of that yet. censorship it is amazing. it is definitely not the way things are done in most of the
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world, eunice, i wanted to softly ask you that question thank you for your reporting eunice, we appreciate it great to have you. fingers crossed. we hope they do have all of the elderly vaccinated >> that would be a great rollout. there was a readout from the white house yesterday. comments president biden was making there that the chinese had not asked about any of the mrna vaccines here and never come up. i guess they are making do with what they have in that situation. >> the spin that it has been amazing success. we already saved 6 million people that would never happen here. >> counter factuals. >> you know, we cut the deficit in half because we're not spending money. >> more political spin is not unique unique. >> bringing back the jobs we shutdown count as new jobs
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>> not unique. political spin they all engage heavily. >> they do >> if you want to talk about free speech, look at what is happening here in the united states elon musk taking on apple. yesterday lashing out at the tech giant regarding several matters with twitter this was a twitter temper tan tantrum. calling out tim cook for backing out of advertising on the platform complaining about the 30% fee on app developers musk said apple threat especithreatened to remove twitter from its platform and store. there were funny memes elon is the best twitter troll you have seen, but people responding in like
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call up this one we have a full screen of the tim cook parody that came back elon saying apple stopped advertising on twitter do they hate free speech in america? what is going on with tim cook the parody account responded your feedback is appreciated now pay 30%. thanks for your feedback now pay $8 >> everything with the conspiracy theories of what elon is really up to and apple is really up to. >> i don't know what is more complicated? elon is looking for more free speech on twitter. that doesn't mean advertisers want to pay for it it could be elon paying the way for that. >> if it was the wild west >> do you want your brand in the midst of it? >> people are saying elon, a method to his madness.
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he wants the super app the android/apple lock needs to be broken. >> he fed into that with tweets the last several days. i'll take that on next you think the immediate is he doesn't want to see the biggest advertiser pull back and d defd definitely not see it on the app store. >> losing $6 million a day from advertisers. elon is making more than $6 million a day. >> sure. even rich people, when you see your net worth go down, it feels liking something wrong >> does he benefit from an eventual twitter bankruptcy? >> i don't see how >> that stuff.
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definitely end up in a better financial position overall. >> you think >> i think so. >> i hadn't thought that through. you will not see that with sam bankman-fried. >> no. we need someone. president biden calling on law make er makers to avert a labor deal the tentative agreement has yet to b to to be ratified by all of the labor unions for the rail agreement. it has to do with paid time off and sick leave president biden described himself as a proud pro labor president. he said it is necessary to override the ratification procedures because of the economic impact of the shutdown
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would hurt millions of other families working people and families. >> this is a big deal. railroads have talked about potentially $2 billion a day in losses for the united states if it shutdown. just before the holiday season never a good time. it is four unions held up over the other nine that have ratified it. again, the pay increases are substantial. there have been questions about railroading. they laid off a lot of people in 2020 starting with the issues. that's been part of the crux of the problem. >> the dow was just negative it was up a bit. up from the early gains. when we come back, we talk more about crude oil prices that have been rebounding from yesterday's drop significantly. we will talk about the potential move by opec that could be propping up oil which is all the way back above $79 a barrel
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after testing $74. snap is the latest company to update its return to office policy if you have been planning on working from home, think again we have details straight ahead you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc i'm a vegas hotel. i don't want anything long term either. just a few nights of fun. some people say i'm excessive, but who cares. i just want to enjoy some late nights. and some very late checkouts.
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crude oil prices went on a wild ride on monday.
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i was shocked. i thought the contract flipped we have dropped to lows we have not seen since december of 2021. all that came before rising on news that opec plus may consider deeper production cuts we are within spitting distance of $80 joining us to make sense of it is helima croft. global head of commodities and a cnbc contributor helima, what happened? >> we had a huge selloff based on concerns of chinese demand. we saw the protests back brebr breaking out we saw the contraction in china. we had opec officials and russian opfficial saying opec could make cuts. we are focus odd ed on opec and
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sunday does opec stay the course with the production agreement or cut? there is no indication we will see an increase from sunday's meeting. >> with the gains from sunday night, you are talking the one month of wti down 10%. when we saw the additional drops to $73, was that panic saying what is going on >> opec officials even last week were floating the idea of a protecpduction cut. they have to factor in with china and russian production european officials last week looked like they were potentially going to agree to a price cap that would enable russian barrels to continue to move to asia markets once european sanctions kick in on december 5 right now, we have no agreement yet of what the price target is going to be and if european
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officials cannot agree on a price for the cap, we get no cap on monday and the full eu sanctions start in full force. >> so opec has to act before that that's a little unfortunate timing for them. what is the best guess to what they will say or do? >> it will be an incredible week for the oil markets. we have opec meeting on sunday then on monday, we find out are we getting the full sanctions? that is an embargo on russian oil in europe, a ban on the provisions to move russian barrels anywhere in the world or do we get a price cap to allow the barrels to move? if you are opec, you have to factor in what the europeans are going to do. my expectation is if prices are flirting with brent breaking in the 70s, opec will do a deeper
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cut. how do they factor the next day? it is still up for grabs, but there is a significant chance of another cut. >> is there a chance we will stand back and see what happens and do an emergency cut if need be >> absolutely. again, they have to factor in does the g7 price cap start on time or are they looking at a potential multimillion barrel a day russian disruption the saudis are being asked to send additional barrels to europe to back fill the russian ou outage they have to factor of the decision on sunday they say they reserve the right to come back into the market after a month or two to adjust whatever decision they take on sunday >> helima, the latest kerfuffle. everybody is in their corners.
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chevron in venezuela asking the white house and some reports are saying what are you doing? going to venezuela last week you said i'll end drilling here and now you are going to venezuela and drill down there the white house spokesperson said there's 9,000 permits these guys don't want to drill everybody says a difference of permits and having actual fines of oil and getting the leases in does it raise an eyebrow with you or dirty oil from venezuela? >> the administration is focused on getting any oil they can on the market venezuela is the case where they can get chevron back in. if they could have done a deal with iran, they would, but the iranians are cracking down on demonstrators. they have not made concessions there is no way you can bring back iranian barrels they are concerned about a potential russian disruption
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come december when the sanctions kick in. they will try to get whatever oil they can on the market as quickly as possible >> helima, i know you heard the angle i was asking is it justified that we're going to a country not necessarily with great paragon of everything we hold dear here. we haven't met with the majors here we haven't asked them. just last week no more drilling. is there anything to that? >> joe, you certainly heard u.s. energy executives saying that the biden administration should place a local call opposed to long distance calls. the question is given what is coming down very quickly with the sanctions, i think they will go to whoever can put barrels on the market as quickly as possible. >> so it is venezuela?
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venezuelas is faster than what we can do here >> venezuela is a couple hundred barrels faster on market in a short period of time. this is why we asked the saudis as well. that's why we keep having to ask opec for more barrels. they go to which countries sit on spare capacity. that is why there's been so much focus on trying to get opec to produce more >> you're nice you have a lot of sources. i can never get you to ruffle any feathers. >> you're not nice. >> i'm not nice. you don't have to convince helima. >> helima, thank you. >> thank you coming up, details from bob iger's all hands meeting with disney employees yesterday. next, we talk to short
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seller, not a short seller he say short seller. carson block about the fallout of the collapse of ftx we would never impugn. >> we? >> "squawk box" will be right back what if we wanted to electrify all of this... 100% carbon free... is it possible? ♪♪ aes has been leading energy transitions for decades... and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations. even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? yes... aes.
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opportunity is setting a goal... ...and charting a course to get there. sometimes the only thing standing between you and opportunity... ...is someone who can make the connection. at ice, we connect people to opportunity. bob iger hosted the first company wide all-hands meeting yesterday since returning to the top job at disney last week. that's yesterday high as $96. down $3. it tried to rebound a little at the meeting, iger said instead of chasing subscriptions
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with aggressive marketing and aggressive spending on content, we need to chase profitability he did say something i thought was interesting. he was quoting "hamilton." i thinkhe knew the quote where when things are not the status quo or anything close to the way it used to be, the sun still comes up every day >> the world still spins. >> world still spins that's the question. a totally different world. that is not the way it was when disney plus. >> not the way it was when iger was still there. i think what you have to recognize with bob iger, he understands the constituencies that matter. wall street and shareholders and people who work at disney and employees and customers. he understands those three constituencies
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he has see ways go all three levels he is a good communicator and good at sitting down and figuring out what they need to hear and move in that direction. it is clear that wall street wants profitability. not additional subscribersubscr. >> some ceos are great in the growth phase must be some that are good at whatever -- >> all three and weathering a storm. >> a market test in the next two years to see put $100 on it and where the stock is. >> the problems are significant that disney is facing. the problems did not go away with bob iger stepping back in he is good at reading the room and figuring out how to plan an are ac accordingly. and when we come back. fraud on the block chain
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and elon musk is taking his grievances public where else on twitter and we have the look at the s&p winners and losers from yesterday. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.
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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we have been up and down and all over these are modest advances from yesterday. dow down 498 points. s&p futures up 10. nasdaq up by 58. several mega fraud schemes identified on the blockchain >> i can think of another one. >> ripping off billions from investors. eamon javers is joining us more. you promise not to gaslight us >> the merriam-webster's word of
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the year >> it took me a second >> me, too >> he's fast. >> i like the jokes hard to figure out they are almost not jokes at all. >> that was good i like it. >> thank you let's talk about this report just out this morning. crypto firm trm labs tells cnbc it identified seven fraud schemes on the blockchain taken in $100 million in money from investors or from somebody just this year. the largest alleged fraud from the group has taken in $700 million in funds so far this year the smallest has taken in over $100 million trm says investors sent as much as $4.4 billion to this group and a handful of more widely identified frauds on the blockchain part of the reason is investors are seeking higher and higher
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returns in crypto. >> allows the opportunity for fraudsters to prey on people with the fomo, the fear of missing out, on making the next large investment return. we are show that number is substantial. over $4 billion of income and payments to frauds >> now some of the fraud investment opportunities advertise returns as high as 2% per day. in many case, trm says investors in the schemes may not yet know they have been taken advantage of and many may not be able to get their money back they are seeing the scams on a variety of blockchains including tron and bitcoin and ethereum and polygon and bnb. they identified these as frauds based on indicators on advertised returns and profits
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and pyramid like structures and operators the scheme and the web site meta data itself. it is not naming the organizations behind the alleged frauds to not interfere with any ongoing investigations the firm has communicated whati there is no telling if they see the money back or if they ever will back to you. >> thank god for your new beat, eamon. >> a lot going on out there, joe. people piled into the asset thinking it will go up and up. off to the moon. all the memes. when the water recedes, it can be ugly. the question is where is the safe harbor. the report from trm shows a lot of things out there that are still yet to go belly up a lot more danger on the horizon. we with will see whether there are safe harbors in crypto for
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anybody. we are uncovering more and more fraud. >> leverage. the "l" word the under lying asset and if there was no leverage associated, would we be in the same boat? i'm not sure >> the human cycle, joe, where you get the frenzy at the end before they collapse and people are piling in more and more. a psychological doubling down by the people who bought into it in the first place. it always ends badly we are seeing that again >> i see your tweets you know what that means it means i follow you. >> i don't know. you are watching it makes me worried. >> i don't follow anyone at cnbc i don't. i follow becky i don't. you follow me. i follow you we can be -- >> you are both discerning >> exactly >> a high honor. i appreciate it. >> how did i see that?
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i follow eamon i don't know if i accidentally -- >> take the come ppplcompliment >> eamon, i want to know the next beat. you are always on the active beat where are you planning to go next so i can figure out what to do with investments? >> whatever the next calamity is. >> not the metaverse keep your real job >> i look dumb in the head set i don't think i can do that one. >> you look better in lululemon pants with the head set. >> i don't think so. i disagree >> thanks, eamon coming up, elon musk taking on apple accusing the company of threatening to pull twitter from the app store. that's next.
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elon musk making waves with the series of tweets targeting apple. he started with apple is mostly
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stopped advertising on twitter do they hate free speech in america? he followed with a poll about apple's quote censorship and an secret tax on the app store. joining us with more is steve kovak and tim higgins. technology reporter. steve, i'll start with you are we making too much of it >> possibly, joe look, i've talked to app receive developers about the process at apple for the last seven years this flies in the face of everything i heard apple doesn't just idly threaten to remove an app remind the clock two years ago when they removed the "fortnite"
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g game they violated the rules. what is likely happening here is there must have been a communication with apple and twitter. that is normal part of the process especially for big apps like twitter or facebook or pinterest. they are talking to the apple reviewers and going over concerns and making fixes on the fly. what doesn't happen in the conversation, joe, is threat of removing from the app start. what elon musk has to do to get twitter removed is he has to purposely violate the rules just like epic with the "fortnite" did. >> do you think elon musk said i'm not paying 30% >> i think he is trying to find a boogie man for the problems at twitter. like joe said in the intro, he started this whole thing because
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apple dropped spend on twitter a lot of reports flying it spends significant per quarter he is upset and trying to find a boogie man for the failures he iss doing with the company. it starts with the drop of advertising and ends with the 30% secret tax which is not a secret we have talked about this for ages i think it is really shifting blame here for the problems more than taking responsibility for himself for what he is doing. >> tim, i was disappointed and took it personally i love tim cook and elon musk. i want these guys to be allies and not adversaries. can that happen? >> maybe, maybe not. there is context to take down for issues that are problematic. go down taking parler in the wake of the issues with the
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capitol and concerns they were not making the steps needed to ensure content was on there that was not harmful. we had concerns with twitter about the content moderation following elon taking over the company. so many people leaving and concerns about whether the proper steps are taken elon would argue they are, but still it raises the huge issue of hate speech and other issues on the platform that apple doesn't like to be involved with >> right okay, tim. is apple -- you remember the in-house twitter content moderation twitter had before elon i'm glad they're gone. i don't want that content moderation that was egregious that's why elon musk stepped in here is apple going to have the same type of, i don't know, left
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coast -- i hesitate to use the word snowflakes. you can go too far either way. what does apple want to see on twitter? what is something they consider they could not live with the same level as the former twitter moderation people? >> i think in that's what elon has done here. create the question for apple to answer now it is put apple the back in the cross-hairs on that question of free speech and content moderation it is a position that apple has been uncomfortable with for the past year in washington as people on the hill in particular republicans have questioned the rule of apple and other big tech companies and ability to what they believe to limit free speech as you get to the point, that's part of what drove elon to buy twitter. concerns that big tech was limiting that speech on the platforms. >> right tim, is there anything to the
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notion that i think you mentioned about in some of you writings of the super app and elon has to break the apple/android chain? >> there has been the dream in silicon valley for years and years is the app to rule them all. a super app like what we see in china for entertainment and come commerce one thing is the role and power of the platform of apple and android. they hold the key position in the digital lives to control that in a lot of ways, they are the super app. a twitter that wants to be a super app would be a come petit to the apple ecosystem >> a nice wall with the journal and editorial board. i'm surprised twitter did not ban the editorial board of wall
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street journal every article probably would not pass muster with the people at twitter. same thing at apple, tim >> good question for the editorial board and good question for apple you say there's a big line there. big wall. >> i'll say. sometimes i wish it would seep from the editorial board and the other side the other way. thank you. steve and tim, good to have you both on this morning when we come back, check up on the health of small business. ceo of paychex will join us. you can get the best of "squawk box" on your podcast we'll be right back.
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welcome back, everybody.
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weekly hours worked reaching its highest level since march of 2021 joining us is the ceo of paychecks, john gibson good to see you and thanks for being here >> good to see you, becky. good morning >> let's talk about this small businesses are having trouble hiring employees, and that's nothing new, but they are trying to squeeze all the hours out of them they can >> we are certainly not in small business seeing the layoffs you are hearing about in the larger firms and tech companies, and you look at the hours worked, it's the highest we have seen since march of 2021. about 6% more than the small business workers small business just started to
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struggle in recruiting and hiring and to make ends meet, and when we look at the switching opportunities, there's less switching opportunities if you go back in the index when we studied it >> that was going to be my question, how much is because small businesses can't find other workers and how much is it the workers want the extra hours because inflation is hurting them >> in the small business, we are getting pressure on both ends of the spectrum small business owners are trying to retain workers and upgrade the workers if they can, and then on the employee side, they can't go and switch and make as much money as they thought, so in order to increase their income in the face of inflation, they are having to increase their hours. in the health care business, employees making choices for
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lower-priced plans when they are signing up during open enrollment employees are making tough choices to make ends meet. >> the hiring picture has gotten easier in the last few months, and is that what you are seeing in small businesses, too >> have not seen that. when we look at the products and services we serve to help recruit and retain workers, they are not seeing the draft down from the small employers >> is that because big business can offer more >> there's no question in this day and age, the spread has gotten wider particularly with inflation, and when it comes to adding business, we are seeing
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small business owners adding 401(k), and those are benefits they have to have to be able to compete. the small business owners are pressured with inflation right now. >> what do you see in terms of regionally how it breaks down, and it's not the same in every state and on every coast >> yeah, it's not. the story has been a little before the pandemic and through the pandemic is the south continues to expand its lead the south is the only region over 100 in the index, really being led, and north carolina and texas is strong, and florida not as strong because of the hurricane, but they were leading before and the south is taking off across the other regions >> we have a big jobs report coming up on friday, and baseded on what you see from the small businesses, what would you wager, what kind of number do
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you think we will see? >> about 50% of employees work in small businesses. what i can tell you in about 50% of this market, it's a tight label market, and now, as you said, in the larger businesses, we are seeing more layoffs you can see that tilt the other way on the other 50% when it comes to small businesses, it's a tight labor market and small businesses are being pressured by inflation and trying to get the most out of the workers they can >> john gibson, ceo of payc hex. later, we are going to talk to carson block from muddy waters "squawk box" will be right back.
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good morning wall street coming off it's biggest one-day drop in weeks. we will find out what you need to watch in today's trading session. china's health authorities looking to boost the vaccination. and then the latest casualty
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of the collapse of ftx carson block will join us to discuss the fallout. the sep the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc, live from the nasdaq market site. i am joe kernen with becky quick, and andrew is off as you can see, the dow is up 46 points after yesterday we will take a little bit of green. treasuries have been an interesting story, and we will talk to roger ferguson about all the fed speak from both sides, and willups saying one thing,
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and hawkish with other guys -- >> williams, yeah. >> he was more dovish, right >> well, 50 basis points versus 75 >> and fed williams said he expect inflation pressures to recede -- >> if you listen to the whole speech -- >> i like that part of the speech >> -- these higher rates will be here for a long time because we have a lot of work to do >> i wonder if their real motivation we know how much they can use langua language instead of rate hikes >> i don't think they like shocks to the market >> the market gets ahead of itself, and -- >> ignore them at your peril >> i am ignoring them. oil is $79 after getting down to
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the low 70s yesterday and now back to 79 and bitcoin holding, and then you had another bankruptcy yesterday from a second and third derivative up a little bit today, 16.5. >> i can't say you are surprised at any of the bankruptcies because these were the companies built-up by ftx, and when ftx goes away, anybody that was propped up by ftx, oh, no. >> the one i know about and believe in, i will be interested to see -- >> i wouldn't count them all equally. >> you know what we call the
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other coins? >> what? >> "schitt's creek" -- i am back to using dogs and tv shows to be able to say it >> i would never i was only quoting charlie munger a tentative contract has been rejected by four of the 11 rail unions. and he wants to impose that agreement on more than 115,000 workers, and the president is reluctant to override the procedures, but a shutdown would have a severe impact on the nation american consumers in the meantime were not reluctant to spend on cyber monday. cyber monday spending came in at $11.2 billion to $11.6 billion
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anywhere in that range would be a record high. adobe says sales got a boost from wide-spread discounting miami-dade county is suing to have the ftx removed from the arena. the cryptocurrency exchange that recently filed for bankruptcy ran a foul of laws governing financial exchanges. and then china announced a new plan to boost elderly vaccinations, and shares of cansino biologics the updated plan comes as
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china's covid infections drop for the first time in more than a week, and it said nearly 66% of that age group received booster shots, up from 40% on november 11th. when asked in english if china was reconsidering the covid policy after the protests, an official said they have been monitoring the virus' development. let's get to the markets and find out what is moving in the premarket. dom chu joins us now i did see you earlier today, dom. i was riveted. >> thank you very much i was trying to be as riveting as possible with the news you had. we were addressing a lot of the issues you and becky just spoke out. we will start with the china narrative in the conversation about the -- i should say possibly or speculation of
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possibly easing covid restrictions in the coming weeks and months, and also the idea of more vaccinations possibly helping china to get back on track. the economic, i guess, optimism, incrementally so led to gains, as you point out in crude oil. it's up 2.5% at one point yesterday, u.s. benchmark crude was $70.60, and that's how far we have come since the lows yesterday and copper prices up 1% right now. by the way, some of the china -- u.s. listed china stocks, you can see them up 5.5% to 7.5% and then something linked to the china story was apple, and down 2. 5% in yesterday's trade right now it's up fractionally
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speaking, and still that median down trend still a concern for apple. whether or not supply issues get resolved, that's one thing, and becky mentioned some of the record cyber monday pacing we are on in terms of spend, and amazon.com up 3% right now best buy, etsy, they could be the bellwether let's get some stock picks and the managing partner, first, hope you had a great thanksgiving >> thank you hope you did, too. >> i did
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i know you have been digesting all the news out of china and how that whipsawed markets what do you think a day later oil prices are back, and is the market thinking the shutdown in china may not be quite as serious as we thought yesterday at this time >> i think all the cross currents are causing commodity prices to move quite a bit when china comes back on, demand will start rising and that will put pressure on the commodities on the upside, and when you look at china and what is going on in the world, and what we are -- when i say "we," i mean the fed, and then the pricing in commodities, it's one of the biggest inputs of inflation. china, by itself, if it starts coming back you will see upward pressure on commodity prices
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at the same time the dollar is going to start moving as well because the dollar has been so strong i think going forward, one needs to watch commodities there's a play whether you invest in oil and gas or copper or aluminum, because the demand is not going away there. >> and this morning i heard a similar thesis, you may see energy stocks hang in there is because of that, china is likely to come back in the second quarter and come back on strong and that's going to drive the prices up and all of the stocks are trading on the forward expectations does that mean you are making plays in some of the energy names? what do you do >> we have good exposure to energy we are not selling it, and if we were over exposed we would i would add some energy exposure on the pullback. i think it's interesting to look at some of the copper names.
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in the classic commodity cycle is the supply-driven issue, and we don't have enough supply if demand picks up. i think it's a place to play having said that, becky, these are volatile stocks and earnings and go into a slowdown globally. the investor really needs to be careful. this is part of the diversified portfolio. if things do slow down or we get really bad news, commodities are one of the first things that will represent a huge slowdown i advocate as part of a diversified portfolio but don't think you need to go all in here >> i know you like health care >> we do when you look forward estimates have not come down for the s&p we are still saying around 220, and i think that will come down. you want to own area sector stocks that have low volatile
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earnings we have a better see through for the next two to six quarters in terms of earnings. they are rising and have strong balance sheets and dividends that are growing part of a portfolio should be defensive but you can play offense with consumer staples. the volatility will be less than some of the other sectors. if earnings come down, it will not be as much as the dollar gets weaker, these are multinational companies they will benefit from the weaker dollar having a health care and staples and a diversified portfolio, these will be some areas that will return so there are
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positive returns for the investors as opposed to saying i don't want to lose money >> you are selective if you have to worry about a potential recession and potential bad debts? >> yeah, they want us to be careful there. morgan stanley is trading at ten times with the huge wealth -- and they are back to trading around 12 times earnings it's one of the premier banks out there. they will make a lot of money in deposits credit will be important all of the banks going through this will be careful with credit i like the bank of americas, the morgan stanleys, and silicon valley, and you have good dividends and balance sheets, and those are beta plays because people think earnings are going to come down
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they all trade two-thirds of the multiple of the s&p, and you get trading there but higher volatility we have it as part of the portfolio and think it's important to have it going forward. >> thank you >> thank you, becky. coming up, the shortfall o immigrant workers has created modest but liveable inconveniences like an ice cream shop that cut its hours or higher menu prices, but some impacts in some parts of the nation are far more dire that's next. later, we will talk fed policy in the markets with roger ferguson "squawk box" is coming right back
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back now with the second part of our series on the impact of the nation's broken legal immigration system for most americans a shortage of foreign-born workers can make life modestly inconvenient, and higher prices in restaurants and
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half full restaurants, and in other parts of the country it could be deadly consequences steve leaseman joins us with more >> nowhere has it felt more acute than health care the short fall in legal immigration, the nation is fast approaching a health care worker crisis with life or death consequences >> it takes longer to see a physician in rural communities, and those are the areas we have the most trouble recruiting physicians, too. that's where the internationally trained physicians have helped out over the years >> for americans throughout the country a shortage of health care has meant a longer wait
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time, and then in other areas it means hospital closing >> we know it's costing lives. the delay in any person seeing a specialists, it costs human lives and can be measured in that way i don't think it's an exaggeration to see the failure of the government to get immigration health care right is a matter of life and death for millions of americans. >> and then a lottery that gives access to 85,000 workers against 484,000 applications what's more, hundreds of foreign workers in the u.s. can't work in the field because of licensing and training restrictions, and then it shows up in science, technology, engineering and math
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u.s. companies have no choice but to seek foreign workers for these so-called stem jobs. according to the u.s. semiconductor industry, 72% of u.s. graduate students and computer scientists and information are foreign nationals. >> if every single american that was unemployed had the interests in the jobs they had open or were located in the right area, even if those matched perfectly there would still be a gap of 4 to 5 million jobs that are unable to be filled by the american unemployed population >> as a result, some of the world's best and brightest are going elsewhere, and the number of indian students attending canadian colleges increased by 182% in 2018 further reducing the pool of potential workers. america has a choice to make,
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experts say, and we will talk about this more tomorrow >> why can they not -- if congress can't figure it out when you have both sides of the aisle wanting the same thing, and that was the kato institute that was there, and people from the left was saying the same thing, and if you can't figure that out and find a way to improve this so you are helping americans' health and saving their lives in some of the rural communities, what is the problem? >> there's a program called conrad 30 that let's each state bring in 30 additional health care workers >> 30? >> 30. that's it. they go into the same pool there's bipartisan legislation that has been out there. >> shame on the leadership for not figuring this out. shouldn't be added to anything >> one of the things they are trying to show with this thing,
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there's the legal problem and the undocumented and illegal thing, and they are different things >> everybody is holding out to say we are going to have a whole package and put it altogether and as a result nothing has gotten done. >> i guess you -- i guess you -- never mind >> talk to me. >> you could suggest that all the visa people go down south and come up through there, and is that a viable >> no, then they are here illegally and don't have any of the benefits -- >> in joe's sarcasm, there's always fabulous truth. if you get away from the h 1b thing -- >> we need to do both. >> listen. if you let people in to fill jobs legally, you reduce the pressure at the border that's the whole point is the connection between the two people can't get in -- forget
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the h1b people, despite the numbers being low, they have a legal way in, and some don't have the legal way in if they don't have specialized skills so they come in illegally it's a supply and demand thing >> right >> if i could have a second here, the interesting thing is i was amazed at the number of foreign students in the stem fields american businesses have no choice but to recruit the foreign workers because they are the ones who are the students. they get a year and then they get another year they get two years >> and then send them home >> we educate them and send them home am i pounding the table enough >> stupid. >> in u.s. masters programs, it's coming down >> in the international students
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>> pass a law and then enforce all the aspects -- >> i am totally for that >> okay. i don't know what that would mean >> what would you do with the daca people, joe >> well, it has to be part -- >> that used to be a bipartisan issue, too i don't understand -- >> once you do it, you know, all these issues, you do it in a bipartisan fashion, which would never happen then enforce the law and make sure we have secure borders. we don't need the fentanyl -- we don't need any of the crap happening down there, steve. >> the biden administration wants to create chip manufacturing in the united states $100 billion we don't have the workers for that at all. if we are going to try and make chips in america we have to have people that can help make chips and we don't have that, and that has to be changed as well. i think if you educate people here in the states they ought to be able to stay here longer than
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a year or two. what we will talk about tomorrow is how much canada is aware of and beginning to take advantage of the problems in the american system they quadrupled their immigration. you will see this tomorrow >> they took all the highly-trained individuals we were turning away. >> they know what the problem is there are billboards in silicon valley and it says h h1bfatigue.com, and it takes you to a website in canada muddy waters founder and ceo, carson block, will join us. why he says china has no interest in being transparent. we'll talk to him about that in the meantime, check out the
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futures. the nasdaq is up by 62, and the s&p up by 12.5 we'll be right back.
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still to come, another
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casualty from the ftx collapse we will speak to carson block for the latest that's next. and vice chair, roger ferguson, joins us stay tuned, you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc.
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the latest domino to fall in the crypto collapse, digital currency lender, block phi join us with more on that. plus, founder and cio of muddy waters, carson block are we done? what does your work tell you >> well, to be clear, i have not been immersed in the crypto space. the first thing that ever interested me in crypto was back in june when ftx, there was an article about ftx considering buying robinhood, and this was after it had taken a 20% stake in robinhood, just a few months afterward. that said to me at the time they
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were trying to talk the price of robinhood up you don't leak you might buy the company and make the software more expensive ahead of the bid, and that was something when sam bankman-fried, it seems too good to be true to be a household name overnight it was evident to me starting in june, this is the first thing that interested me in crypto, that this was built on a lot of leverage and there are probably so many cockroaches hidden within the walls the fact you see these systemic failures within crypto is not surprising to me given how much leverage existed between these firms. i also think it's important to point out, this is not systemic to the u.s. or global economy. this stuff is just systemic
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within crypto, and, you know, i really -- the thing that chafes is when i start hearing calls to regulate crypto, i don't think that's necessary at this point >> what about just making it easier to operate in the united states rather than operating in offshore somewhere where these things happen? is there a way to do that with a light touch? >> well, there isn't a ton of regulatory framework even in the u.s. now, what you have here when a company like ftx takes customer deposits, that's fraud you don't need new rules and regulations around it. it's contractual fraud and criminal fraud and that could be prosecuted but when you see an industry looking to avoid as much as possible the legal jurisdiction, developed legal jurisdictions,
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yeah, that's a sign these guys are really not on the up and up. but for a lot of people that were fans of crypto, they talked about getting governments out of the picture. congratulations. you are getting governments out of the picture let's not get governments into the picture and regulate in order to make these things less risky. i mean, there were not houses people were living here, and these coins are not being channelled into productive parts of the economy, and companies that are building things and providing services that are really of volume -- value. it should have been a warning to people that so much of it existed offshore and there are contractual and criminal fraud claims here that i am sure exist, or will soon exist, but i don't think the u.s. really needs to make itself a haven for this time of activity.
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nor do we need to crack down on it >> the risks -- just switching gears to something else just because you are -- you have a lot of irons in the fire did you see things, opportunities in china, as a professional skeptic there what kind of opportunities are you seeing >> well, i think the thing with china, we have to understand that we're in a completely new regime previously the chinese government for several decades had an interest in being in -- in telegraphing what its policy directions were and its policies were largely geared towards economic growth and involving foreign capital and generally treating foreign capital, you know, somewhatwell that's not the goalanymore the goal, you really have to understand this about china, is that policy, the important macro
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policies are formulated by one person, and that's xi jinping, and he, for lack of a better word is a dictator the arc of dictatorships, is ultimately the dictators end up receiving threats to them, and these are not threats to just being deposed. when somebody like xi jinping who has made countless enemies by locking people and their family members up over the years and even having some executed, and when somebody like that goes it's not a peaceful transition that person is often executed along with family members, so they often develop paranoia. there are legitimate threats they perceive, but everything becomes a threat the goal of policy then bec becomes -- when you look at zero covid in china, this is not
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about covid, this is about xi seeing the population as a threat and with the markets question, for decades china has built the biggest asset and credit bubble that existed in the history of humanity, and on top of that powder keg now sits one person that has lots of enemies, and what he has been doing is clearly -- to not prolong this and not kick the can down the road, and he's popping the asset bubble, which is creating credit problems you have a lot of economic instability, and that is why you have these draconian population levels, it's to protect this guy. every day goldman sachs will say x about china covid policy and jpmorgan, and the problem is we are viewing this through the
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prior lens of a government that was open to foreign investment and focused on economic growth and raising its citizens standards of living. those days are gone. we have to view this through the lens of one paranoid person that is doing everything he can to avoid being taken out. when you do that, it starts to make a lot more sense. does china become investable look, there's a price for everything you have to understand that nobody has an edge as to predicting china policy anymore. okay, the guy you know who has got lots of relationships in china, that doesn't matter anymore. you have to price in to what you are willing to pay with the understanding you wake up one morning and it's down 90%, because that's what china is now. it's impossible to predict on a macro level. >> wow
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carson, are you -- did you ever get involved in the meme stocks on the short side? when you go out, do you wear a disguise or something? do you have a -- you don't have a twitter account, do you? >> yeah, i do, i am @muddywaters - >> don't say it on the air you are one of the short sellers that are trying to f over the people and get mad when they don't go up. >> i have never been short these names -- >> right i think we are, you know, and there's a lot of villains they are looking for and conspiracies >> it gets so tin foil hats.
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>> becky, did you see the one, it was eoj, and they were short some things, and they said -- >> you told me about it. >> he said, that was me, e period, o period, j period, and they said it was me, because my name is joe, and it could have been joe biden, joe manchin, joe montana. if it was nosrac, and there are not many carsons that i would know. >> i would say, how did you do that >> i was look into the prompter. i went that way. carson, thanks >> thank you when we come back, it is giving tuesday we are going to talk about smart ways to give and maybe get a tax break, too the financial correspondent, cheryl epperson, will have that after the break.
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later, inventor and educator will join us to talk about building a successful business online this guy is cool and his videos are amazing. your kids will love it mine do. make sure you see this also, don't forget, get the best of "squawk box" in our daily podcast. you can listen to us anytime we'll be right back. i am joined by christopher hrouts we are talking about given all
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the volatility in today's markets, what are the pressures ceos are facing. >> it's employee engagement and talent retention it's so critically important to being successful we defined it as humans at the center and it's approach we bring to make sure we are focused on the people. >> what do companies need to do to get that strategy right >> look at things from a persona perspective. we look at different types of employees and how they digest information differently and learn differently, so we can communicate with them through town halls or ways they can come along with the journey >> who leads that charge hr >> hr leads the strategy, and we need to make sure they engage with the employees, and then we take time to understand how the employees are learning to make sure they stay connected and engaged throughout the integration. >> what happens if it's not right? >> we will lose employees, and
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we will not be as successful both in the day-to-day business and also in the integration itself >> kris, thank you so much for sharing your expertise >> thanks for having me. welcome back to "squawk box. the futures this morning are hanging in there, barely s&p up by 8.5, and the dow up as well >> it's giving tuesday after two of the biggest shopping days of the year, and giving tuesday celebrates giving back many charities have sent e-mails requesting donations and joining us, sharon
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>> even if it says it will be tax. for 2022, the standard deduction is $19,950 if you are single, or $25,900 for married jointly. >> just because it has gone down in the last year doesn't mean it has depreciated. if you have a lot of appreciated stock, i would not give crash but would give that stock. >> by donating an asset that is appreciated for more than a year you will get more than if you sold the stock since you will avoid capital gains taxes.
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the appreciated asset is deductible at fair market value up to the irs limit of 30% of your adjusted gross income it could be a savvy way to give but you have to make sure you are going to exceed the standard deduction with your itemized deductions, if you are single, it's $12,950, and $25,900 if you are married filing jointly >> what is the deadline? not that i am thinking about that tax break, but what is the deadline >> december 31st, you have to get your cash donation in, and your credit card donation if you are doing a payment app, and mailing it in by check, do that by the u.s. postal service, and fedex doesn't count and you have to have the postmark and the stock, you want to start now or by the middle of
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december, and it takes time and several steps and you have to make sure the charity that you are donating that to accepts stock. >> i like the reminder it's giving tuesday following cyber monday >> so important. >> thanks. when we come back, roger ferguson will join us to talk about the fed, the economy, markets and more before we head to break, a couple stocks to watch apple edging higher yesterday after the drop yesterday snapchat parent snap will require employees to work from its offices four days a week starting in february it comes after the news it would lay off some of the staff in an effort to cut costs. your projects done right
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word from the fed, the two latest comments came from st. louis fed president, james bullard, saying there's some risks the fed will have to raise rates higher than 5% in the meantime, new york president said the fed in his words would need to keep the restrictive policy in place for sometime joining us is the former vice chairman of the federal reserve,
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and a cnbc contributor roger, these latest comments, would you describe them as hawkish or realistic >> i would describe to be very clear about the plan. jim bullard is known to be perhaps a bit more hawkish i think john williams is very much in the center of the committee. he's saying what we have seen in various forecasting probably a little higher than previously expected and staying there most, if not all, of 2023. i have described that as realistic. >> the incoming data may be changing pretty rapidly. just yesterday the markets around the globe were very concerned about what's happening with china
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if you were to see a significant lockdown in china, if you were to see covid break out there in a major way, i guess that would change the trajectory of global growth, change the trajectory of inflation and commodity price it is would that keep the fed at bay, at least temporarily >> i don't think so, for a couple reasons one is that is something outside their control and could move back and forth relatively quickly. secondly, recognize that while dramatic growing in china would have an impact on demand, a shutdown would also have an impact on the supply chain one of the things that's been driving inflation is, in fact, supply chain challenges. ongoing uncertainty in china is a bit of a double-edged sword from the standpoint of the fed it may be driving toward global recession, which many have been
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concerned about, but at the same time, you know, creating restrictions in supplies that could feed into inflationary pressures that they've been dealing with >> that makes sense. the contract-argument in the markets has been that the fed is looking at old data, this is outdated, they're always late to get started, late to get out of things what does the fed see? what does the fed know that maybe is beyond that narrative >> a couple things one is i still think we have the best model i think the fed also is focused on managing inflation expectations, keeping those under control. that is obviously a forward-looking measure. they are pleased with where they see inflation expectations to be, but they're also concerned
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about the possibility that inflation remains high, leads to a cycle of inflation expectations the final thing, i think what is important, even as inflation comes down, it comes down from a very high level. headline inflation, 6%, even 7% occasionally, takes time to get down to 2% i think that's where the market and the fed might be at odds the fed has been clear, until they are sure we're going to 2% over a reasonable time frame, i think perhaps their antenna are up more than the market. i think that's might be where the disconnect is. >> that makes sense. when we hear from people on the ground, from ceos, from those with industries being hurt business these issues, they say the fed isn't looking at the
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realtime data that they see. what's your counterargument to that. >> i think they're looking at a range of their sources, so they have their ways of collecting the beige book they publish that after a period of time. they have various committees and groups that they meet with they go and talk to the public i think they're hearing that, for sure, but they're also hearing from consumers, that inflation still seems to be quite a problem. rents are still relatively high, there's a risk they go up. consumer are comparing what it costs to fill up a basket in the grocery store this year versus last year. so they're also hearing that on the ground inflation is a clear and present danger for, you know, average citizens so let's be clear, there are complex crosscurrents right now that make the job different, but i think what the fed is
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primarily focused on, not ignoring the other data, primarily focused on that inflation is still there by the way, the fact there are these crosscurrents, that gives credence to the fed stepping down its campaign from 75 basis points to 50 basis points, maybe to 25, indeed eventually ending it i think the fed is maybe not say we're getting close to the end of raising rates we will hold them for a period of time. you heard john williams for the first time talk about the possibility of reducing rates, not 2023, but early 2024 i think the fed is trying to signal, we hear you, it's more complex than just one side of the story, because inflation hasn't gone away, even though higher rates are clearly taking a toll in certain sectors and industries. >> roger we've had people on, some of them -- i think rick has made this point.
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the fed, i guess they like to feel like they're in charge, but the ten-year is in charge. if the ten-year, based on what happens in china or what happens in terms of growth expectations here or around the globe, if the ten-year were to drop to below 3.5, let's say, the ten-year's in charge. they don't have to do anything didn't the ten-year will tell them when they have done enough, won't it >> this goes back to the question of the so-called financial conditions so, yes, the ten-year and the yield curve inverting, all those factors, will tell them the market is concerned that growth is slowing more quickly than the fed believes to be the case. so there's information there however, you know, the fact that if it does continue to drop, as you point out, that also has, from their standpoint, the
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reverse effect, of easing financial conditions, i.e. offsetting some of what they're trying to do i think their focus is trying to keep financial conditions relatively tight, so they can finish their job without dealing with an economy that starts to take off again. >> roger, thanks we'll see you soon. >> absolutely. coming up, youtuber, engineering and entrepreneur, mark rober joins us on launching a new product aimed at stem learning jeremy siegel on markets ahead of jay powell's comments, which are coming torw.omro "squawk box" is coming right back
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futures are quiet, too q quiet, but oil is jumping. we're going to dig in, drill into what's causing the volatility china cracking down on those protesting the covid lockdowns
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there. the government may be trying to get people to believe a whole new narrative. we'll take you live to beijing for the latest. and usinginglier bombs to fight package thieves. they have helped put him on the map, and now he's cashing in, teaching stem prince pellets to kids the creator economy is on the way, as the time hour of "squawk box" begins right north now. good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc we're live in the nasdaq marketsite in times square andrew is off today. we've been watching the u.s. equity futures so far things have been muted, a bit of a rebound, but not by a
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huge amount. this morning the dow futures are up by 32, s&p futures up by about 11 treasury yields were under pressure yesterday that has continued this morning with the ten-year. let's get you caught up on some of the stories that investors are likely talking about first off, elon musk going after apple, tweeting that the tech giant has mostly stopped advertising on twitter, and then asking if the company hates free speech in the lead-up, he styled himself as a free speech champion, though he hasn't proven to be a fan of all users tactics, including when people internate him. "the washington post" reports that apple, twitter's number one advertiser, and so far cook hasn't taken the bait. shortly after, musk tweeted that apple has threat up to whole twitter from its app store
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without telling twitter why, though he didn't provide further details. when all is said and done, retailers may have recorded a record cybermonday haul. we're expecting final numbers today. nap is the latest company to call workers back to their desk the majority of the time the social media company will require workers to be at the office 80% of the time, four days a week. that starts at the end of february back in august, they said they would shut down projects to cut costs. over to dom chu, he's tracking some of the modern morning's -- have you played government in the last week? >> no, i have not.
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>> i'm nursing some tendinitis in my elbow, but i'm going to hang out with friends in florida later in december. anyway, so, joe, becky, we'll start with a check a shares of chemour. it lowered the full-year guidance, and what it did is cite a slow demand to the chemical that's used in a lot of different applications, includes as a white paint pigment and then shares of hibbett, this is a small-cap sporting goods retailer it reported quarterly sales that missed estimates it was hit by higher costs of things such as freight, fuel and
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la labor. you have shares of u.p.s. much the freight, package delivery a log logistic, is getting an upgrade by deutsche bank they cited, among other things, a more fair valuation giving the hurdles, and optimism over continuing operating performance. so those u.p.s. shares are up about 1.5% becky, i'll send things back over to you. >> i have hibbetts in my crocs >> it sounds close to another word. >> i guess this is a different thing? >> yes, those are different. i don't want to know what you have in your crocs.
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>> oh, crocs, you know, you know -- >> this was your pronunciation [ laughter ] let's get to china where security has stepped up. antilockdown protests have disappeared. eunice yoon has the latest from beijing. >> reporter: as you said, china has stepped up its security in many different cities, including here in beijing. they have also started searching for protesters who had been demonstrating against the covid restrictions in addition to that, more and more students are starting to indicate that they are receiving noise to leave the cities ostensibly because of covid prevention measures, however, many university students were the ones taking part in the protests the hope had been these protests could trigger some sort of lifting oral easing of some of
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the restrictions there had been health authorities holding a press conference today it was a big subject of conversation, but at the end of the day, the authorities reiterated they're sticking by the zero covid approach. however, think didn't -- while they didn't directly address the protests, they did address complaints, saying the issue was the implementation of the covid measures, and that they were too excessive at the local level, as opposed to the covid curbs themselves investors were heartened by what they were hearing, to some extent, and also because of some unverified chatter that seemed to indicate that the leadership might be drafting a narrative to try to redirect the propaganda so this is unverified, but it
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goes that xi has asked the propaganda chief to draft this plan, and the idea that bf.8, the new variant, which comes after 7, which is currently circulating in beijing, is heart to the flu, so for china it's time to exit, and then at that point the communist party could declare had has saved 6 million lives and this is a great achievement for the party. again, this is all unverified, but it does speak to what would be necessary for china to exit this plan. up until now, the messaging to the public has been to struggle, that chinese people can defeat the virus, but now they would have to redirect that messaging to the people to say that they have been able to accomplish this goal. guys >> yes, thank you, eunice. thank you for your continuing
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excellent coverage eunice yoon. coming up, we'll have more on the recent unrest in china, including ma a commute for tesla, and jeremy siegel will talk markets with us. but next, from anti-they've glitter bombs, to stem education. we'll have a conversation with mark rober student. you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc
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now to a "squawk box" series, the creator economy. according to a new study from meta, the creator economy is worth $100 billion whether it's on youtube, tiktok or instagram, creators are earning huge sums of money mark rober is a youtuber, inventor, and creator, started his career first at nasa, and then at apple. he's amassed more than -- his monthly videos range from creating a squirrel olympic court in the backyard to
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catching porch thieves can a custom-build bait package. his latest project is crunch labs is a subscription box that includes toys based around stem. the product blew up online, selling out within the first week the waitlist already has 90,000 people on it joining us is mark rober mark, this is my favorite interview i've been looking forward to in probably years [ laughter ] >> i'm a huge fan, a subscriber, but you have to say i wasn't the one that noticed it. it was my 11-year-old son kyle, and i think he was only 9 when he did what is the secret here, the magic with get people to sign? how do you do it
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>> yeah, well, thank you good to be here first of all i don't know i try to hide the vegetables with, you know, with getting the science and the engineering sort of message out there the thumbnail will be a 15-tonight jell-o pool it looks interesting, and what in the world is this and you click on it. before you know it, you're learning about chemistry and the scientific method, how you even go about doing this. trying to be the world's greatest uncles, with knee meetses and nephews, we have a big fight in the jell-o pool but i'm taking science and engineering to make it interesting enough so that kids want to click on it, and it becomes aspiration all i could be that, too i could be doing cool things with my life eventually when i grow up. >> before anybody else thinking they can do this themselves in their backyards, they may not
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understand if they haven't seen your videos, not without a huge am amount of time and effort and money in some of these cases what is the most expensive project? right now we're looking at the squirrels in your backyard >> yeah, but even the squirrels -- i got up at 6:00 a.m. every day and building for four hours at this point it's rare it would be less than six figures on a video. the most expensive was maybe 400,000 egg drop from space. we took it all the way up to space -- i worked at nasa for nine years, what if the high school experiment, we do it super space. and just teach that as a learning opportunity showing the failures, you know, like five other six times. normalizing the kids and adults.
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i truly try to make content that applies to both. failure is okay, that's how we put rovers on mars you're just learning one more way not to do a thing, and then you move on. it stings, but you move on, you learn and you get better and you improve. >> for anybody who thinking that the creator economy isn't a real thing, i mean, you're not independently wealthy before you started doing this if you have hundreds of thousand to say put together for thinks videos you're doing every month, that's because you have a lot of followers and subscribers. when did you first realize this was a real thing i'm guessing you didn't quit your day job until this was up and running. >> when i started on youtube a decade ago, no one did it for money. no one knew you can't make money. just over time, you know, sponsors would start to come in.
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i eventual -- nats that for nine years, apple for four years, and i quit my job at apple when i had 10 million subscribers, which is rare. a lot of people quit a lot earlier, but i liked my job, i'm an engineering and i'm conservative, but by the time i quit at apple, i was making confide a bit more on youtube. i haven't lost money on a video ever sometimes you just about break even, but that's the goal. then, you know, you take it and put it into future things. you just kind of reinvest in what we're done here let's talk about your latest, crunches lab i'm guessing this is hidden in a
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regular look building? >> yes, it's disguised it just looks like an old '70s office and then it slides open to a high-tech lab. >> your own bat cave. >> yay i love hearing you have to -- in the intro, by the way, that was lovely >> nobody made me say that. >> it's her favorite >> you have to watch the video to get this. the reason you did this is because you had a package stolen off your porch and it ticked you off. >> that's the beauty of being an engineer if something doesn't exist in the world, you can make it exist. basically someone stole a package, it made me sad, police wouldn't do anything about it, understandably they have bigger crimes to
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solve. hey, i helped to put a rover on mars, so basically it's a bait package. there's things that record, and to make sure you get it back, and then, of course, there's a cup that sprayed like a pound of the world's finest glitter, and you get it back, that's when the fart spray works every time, and then we use the gps to retrieve it hill later ensues. >> but some of the best video stuff i have ever seen this is your fifth year doing this >> yeah, this is the fifth and final year when you lift off, the drones fly all over your house and spray glitter everywhere any level up will be illegal or cause more harm than we should >> so please reconsider. thinks my annual entertainment
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by the way, we should point out that three out of four americans have had a package stolen. i think in the last 12 months it's cost something like $20 million in terms of lost packages because of theft issue, so you are a one-man band -- well, you and your crew, a one-man team pushing back. so thank you we appreciate it. let's get back to crunch labs, and the new subscription model. my son was able to try out one of the these boxes over the weekend. it was really cool, the disk spinner that spit things out he did really well by himself, put it all together. why is there a 90 thousand-person waiting list. >> parents would come up, and a common thing is my kid loves your videos, they want to be an
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engineer, or they want to be a vet, but they like your videos it's a first step, and i never really had a good answer, so the idea was, you know, we could create a box that comes to your house every month, and the gold of this box would be to get you to think like an engineer. that means you think critically, break a problem down into steps. >> it makes you a critical thinker. when you open the box immediately there's a video to watch, or there's also paper instructions, the cool part about the video is that, you know, i teach you the physics that come along with something like a flywheel. this with one learned about fly wheels a video can only get you
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so far, but getting your hands dirty, and so the goal is, year after -- after 12 of these boxes, and they're really cool, this one is a wrist-mounted airplane launcher, it's art as well, this one we learned about kinematics so, you know, we designed some really cool boxes that's really resonated with folks. we sold out in five days, like a 90,000-person waitlist it's all self-funded ed.
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>> it's self-funded, would you take a partner, be interested in expanding. we're humble enough to know, if there's the right partner there and really getting this message out to the world, and helping kids to get to this point. we're like an all brains on deck, there's some big problems that need to be solved in the world, if we can do our part to get kids thinking i can be part of the solution, and this is how, i don't know.
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it's pretty cool we're pretty excite d. >> mark, this almost feels like a "squawk box" edition of "shark tank." i like to see that people are watching, checking things out. i love your videos please keep them coming. >> thanks for having me. be sure to check out today's edition of "squawk pod." mark rober answered some questions from my son kyle did you have any more questions? >> one of the them is, why did you quit nasa? i thought that would be -- >> that's a great question >> if you want to hear the answer, you're going to have to check out the "squawk pod" available a little later today
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i apologize for the sunglasses i had pinkeye last week, so i had to do sunglasses last week >> i knew why. >> it's a viral thing. everybody was sick we used different brushes, but i had to stay home that's why i wasn't here >> i love engineers. i do >> better you than me. >> if you can get kids interested at this age. >> it's so gratifying, you know, to do one of those problems and get it right, calculus can actually work. >> and no kidding, mark rober
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used to work on the rover program at nasa. he's a serious engineer. >> we need those guys. god help us. coming up, the latest on this already volatile week for the oil markets. brian sullivan is here in the studio he's going to talk to us about that plus president biden calls on congress to help avert a rail strike we'll get a live update. and pro week rolls on, with a special interview with tom lee. it all starts at 3:00 p.m. easter tay n,od ♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon!
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oil prices are higher this morning. we saw a big turnaround. in focus, china's lockdown, opec plus, and more brian sullivan is here in studio with us on set to help us understand what's going on headed to one of our favorite places, on saturday? >> yeah, the meeting is on sunday, the opec meeting is on sunday. >> you're head to do vienna, supposedly the most livable city in the universe, and vienna, arrange christmas, i'm going to
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wear an elf's outfit and walk ar around. >> by the way, everything i bluff, will ferrell, you know what you and me, makes fun of race car drivers and makes fun of guys with big ears i have a beef with ferrferrell. >> and he streaks naked. >> we play iran today. we got to win. maybe i will anyway, let's talk about oil and gas. there's a lot going on i want to show people what's happening. the u.s. spr rounds, they just kicked off russia is expected to be there at opec on sunday. it's possible they'll keep production targets where they are or cut them. the next day, monday, is when the eu sanctioning kick in
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what people don't talk about, guys, there's just about as much russian oil flowing into europe as before. now there won't be, even the trading firms, they won't be able to do it, because they can't get insurance on the cargos i took tbd on the price cap, because the price cap proposal is totally separate than the sanctions the price cap is totally separate moments ago, russia -- who's, by the way, at a chinese energy conference, which i think says a lot -- out on the tape saying no price cap is acceptable to them, or they might pull barrels off the market >> how weird that the meetings on sunday and this deciding goes into effect the next day, the sanctioning go into effect the next day
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wouldn't their decision have to be entirely dependent on what happens with the sanctions >> they have said that i think that's what makes the timing interesting and a bit bizarre. we're getting into negotiations, joe, we're hearing every day from politics. poland says i don't want russia to make any money, because poland feels very threatened, as they probably should here's the secret. the white house, according to numerous reports, the white house is in favor of a price cap, but it wasn't the price cap high enough that russia will keep pumping oil it sounds a little weird, but the white house wants oil on the market they don't want putin to make any market, but they want it out there. otherwise, what this at the pull millions of oil off the market and some are accusing us, the
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white house, of war pr profiteering, so our eu minister -- unname -- by the way, if you're going to say that, put your name on it -- accusing the white house of it. >> this could be worse if we weren't at 75. what if we were worrying about this at 120. >> china's is 15% of global demand if their economy gets hit, we do know that china is not consuming all the oil it could be. there's about a 2 million barrel swing. if china goes fully open, says, forget it, it's not working anyway, 108 million a year, we're like 99 1/2 now. >> is it possible the saudis weren't just being punitive with us when they decided to
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surprisingly cut when we asked them to raise? that was the right move for them, considering we went to 73 yesterday, want it >> i think, by the way, i expect to hear thatsentiment at the meal opec, i believe will say, listen, we're at 73, we would be at 60 if we did not cut. we made the right move, it was the rye thing to do. the u.s. politicians will not like that it will rejuvenate this no-pec bill going around in congress. >> it's going to be cold, though you can't go down to the tel aviv bar down in vienna on -- what is that >> is that a good one? >> what is that? >> st. stephen's i know that opec street, and it's called the --
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[ speaking non-english ] -- took me about a year to get that out >> in switzerland everything says fart, right >> that's exit. >> take this fart, that i can that fart. i take it literally, okay, i can do that. >> by the way, usa, let's get it done today i'm going to be hosting "power lunch," don't you dare text me with the score update. >> i'm going to tell you i watch the entire game. anyway, thank you. >> i still think you can use your hands >> if you're the goalie. >> coming up, engineer mir
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siegle joins us, auction talking about this week's final message from jay powell before -- it's not his final, i hope -- final one before the central bank et cetera next interest rate decision you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com
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shop in-store or online. every holiday starts at dick's. president biden urging
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members of congress to take action to prevent what he called a potential crippling railroad shutdown kayla tausche has more good morning. >> four out of 12 union staffing -- have rejected a white house brokered deal. the department of transportation, agriculture and labor among the federal agencies that have been working behind the scenes to avert or prepare for a strike alongside business and rail groups have been warning of a devastating impact from one. president biden says he's reluctant to -- but in this kay, where the impact of a shutdown would hurt millions of other working people and families, the president believes congress most use powers to adopt the deal worth noting, president biden as a senator voted against congressional intervention in similar talks.
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the white house says this makes it different first, force the parties to accept the deal, which is just one paid sick day, compared to the 15 the unions were seeking number two they can't delay the strike or deadline, but that was undermy the emergency board that the white house already point to negotiate the deal house speaker nancy pelosi will choose that first option and conshould take up the legislation later this week. becky? >> what does this mean for the unions that have been trying to amend the deal if you lose the president, who as described himself as the most pro-union president ever, what are the odds of getting it done? >> well, becky, it's worth noding for the eight or nine unions who have ratified this deal, it would go forward, and for a handful of the unions that have not ratified the deal, they're working with their leaders to try to reach new
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terms in side letters, sort of adenna to the existing deal that introduced new terms that maybe are specific to their industry or their union for instance, one union that struck down the deal back in october, they added a side letter that essentially said the companies and unions with pay for single-party lodges on the road so they wouldn't have to bunk up with co-workers when they were traveling for weeks at a time that's something the specific members had been seeking and the leadership did sign on to that. so the talks are continuing. the problem is, the clock is running out here. >> kayla, thank you. we want to go back to the broader markets. we're coming off the worst day in almost three weeks. this time sparked by covid-related unrest in china. joins us is jeremy siegel. professor emeritus at wharton
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school of business i've heard of that thing, i think. yeah, pretty good school i asked roger ferguson, former fed vice chair, is jay powell really in charge or is the ten-year in charge what i meant by that -- is it any good there's a governor, a real-world market governor on the fed? if the ten-year telegraphs you have done enough, the fed will have to listen, or then they're just really stubborn do you think that's a positive >> yeah, you have to listen to the ten-year listen, joe, in less than -- in about 15 minutes we're going to get some important housing data, the case-shiller, the federal housing loan agency data on housing prices i expect them to show an actual
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decrease in home prices, something that the fed can't ignore, even though their lag way of computing it -- they'll get the cpi, it's often been mentioned, the day before the fomc decision, and the cpi on housing is going to show a positive increase. so the ten-year looks at the real world they don't see the prices increasing they see the prices decreases. we're not even talking about a slowdown in housing. we're talking about negative housing inflation. i'll bet in ten minutes we'll get negative numbers there, this would be the third month they look at on the ground price indexes, and the fed ultimately can't ignore, despite what they say, the on the ground price indexes. >> are we all in on the sort of
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the game that -- they can can talk, can't they that can lower inflationary expectations they can do a lot of talking about where they're going to go, what the terminal rate is. that's cheap it doesn't cost them anything. it doesn't mean they actually follow through on it is that part of what they're doing here and will they look and listen to market conditions in terms -- not stock market it looks like they like it when the market goes down for the wealth effect if they're trying to hurt demand, but they would have to ignore the bond market at their own peril they could go too far. the bond market could be saying stop, stop, and they could go too far and bring on their own hard landing that wasn't necessary. >> absolutely. the fed is very data dependent i have mentioned before -- they kind of heart when they say all through next year, we're going to keep the rate tight through
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the end of 2023. well, take a look at their past predictions of what they were going to do, you know, a year ago they were not going to raise the fed funds rate more than 25 basis points this year well, what did they do i actually -- i do expect the 50 basis points, because i think the price data will look good in the december meeting i really hope that they just pause after that, and let the tightness that they have already induced, the decline in the money supply -- by the way, we got it last tuesday, the seventh consecutive month of decline in money, the biggest decline since world war ii this is a very restrictive policy if they try to keep this going through the next year, a recession is virtually 100%. but i think they'll pivot once they see the weakness in the data come through. >> they also have some risk in china, what happens with covid,
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that they can't control. if china were to really head south in terms of economic expectations because of this, and then they're in a vacuum over here, we're somewhat isolated from that, i guess. but there are other risks for -- that would make the global economy worse than what the fed is anticipating right now. oil prices in russia, and -- a lot of different things, jeremy, that they should take into account. >> yeah. you know, what steve was saying, this is really important what he was saying about immigration reform, the united states has an opportunity, because china has messed up so badly with this policy, a lot of the best and the brightest say i'm not going back to china, or i don't want to go back to china to make my forting we have the opportunity in the united states to snag some great talent in the stem areas and
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many other areas, because i remember when i was teaching at wharton, the best and the brightest from china saying i'm going back and mike my fortune no, they don't want to go want o back anymore we can take advantage of that. if we don't, let me say other countries will and we'll be sorry you know, what's going on in china is crazy, but this is an opportunity for the united states. >> i love it i love you're watching and tied it back to steve's three-part report on that but that's a very good point why not. we cansnag them, now is the time to do it. all right. we should do it. professor siegel, thank you. >> thank you >> good to have you on bye, jeremy. let's get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer been dying to talk to you about your take on oil
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what's happening the day after all of this concern about china and now wondering what opec is going to do. huge reversal. >> yeah. at the same time, i think right now oil is not in the right direction. i see these numbers. i know they're going up. yesterday i had a critical breakdown and reversal a lot of people feel that what happened is that we got to the strategic petroleum reserve area our government was in there buying they're not. they're not going to support the commodity. i'm not quite sure what plus will do. but this is china. i think any time you see west texas up, it's people believe china is opening it's very die mary it is whether they will come back online. today is hopeful it is like wind. it's like everything china and it's tiresome because i don't think we can gain china in
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any way, shape or form >> which leads us with what, the fed speak trying to anticipate what that will mean longer term? >> i think it's dangerous until you see friday's numbers it is trying to figure out whether the tech company rationalization head count does matter we don't havea lot of layoffs in the rest of the economy the place we have genuine layoffs is tech. i'm not sure how big they are. most of the companies i deal with do not have a problem hiring, particularly in the service area, a very big change. >> yeah. we heard dr. siegel talk about the money supply, which i think is incredibly restrictive. but, look, we have to see what happens friday we should try to stop guessing what china is going to do. >> that is an excellent point. >> military called up at the end of the protest that's the way it is being handled now. >> small business paycheck ceo
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still can't find enough employees. >> yeah. >> all right m,haou y we'll see you in a few minutes "squawk box" will be right back. how will your business adapt to change? you could hire an office full of peyton mannings. what's up, peyton? good morning, peyton. hold for peyton. they'd huddle.... welcome to the peytonverse. such a visionary. game plan... you go. no, you go! and call audibles... double our investment in omaha! omaha! omaha! omaha! or you could use workday. omaha. the finance, hr and planning system
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morgan stanley says a new survey reinforces its view that elon musk's involvement in twitter triggered to negative sentiment momentum in tesla. a nearly three-quarters of survey respondents believe the twitter situation has accounted for at least a significant portion of tesla's recent share price underperformance oppenheimer managing director and senior research analyst, colin oppenheimer. i would want to know whether these respondents, colin, were in a position to actually share sales of tesla i mean, opinions -- we know what opinions are like. so they feel it has something to do with that that doesn't make it so. i can give you a million reasons why nasdaq stocks have gone down in the past year >> so with the morgan stanley survey, one, we haven't seen it.
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secondly, we don't typically like to comment on other research we can say the sentiment around the stock has been sour. certainly there is a lot of damage that this is doing for tesla. there had been a sense that tesla is on the right side of some of the socially conscious issues that consumers are concerned with and with the twitter acquisition, that gets much more muddied. there's certainly a lot of pushback about being involved in twitter from a variety of folks. and i think that is reflecting on the tesla brand and stock right now. >> so people that were totally tuned in to climate change and wanted to do something for the environment, if something appears on twitter they feel is beyond the pale in their world they won't bilek they were that committed to saving the planet, that they won't buy? they won't buy a tesla ev
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anymore because elon musk is a meany and lets bad things come onto twitter come on, colin >> that is wildly oversimplistic >> connect the dots for me so do you think tess lash. >> -- and i think he's eroding some of the trust right now. >> so you don't buy a tesla? you buy it because you trusted elon musk to be a good person, in your view now you don't like the car anymore because something mean is on twitter. >> i don't think you can conclude that from what i just said certainly there's additional vehicles on the road for folks what want to buy evs tesla had been the only option it enhances the competitive landscape. there is concern around too much power being consolidated in single hands there are options for consumers
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and the broader power base and wherethings sit having gone through a tough election cycle for many folks >> so anti-billionaire backlash is going to affect whether people buy tesla that's another point you just made how about amazon i'm not going to get packages delivered anymore because jeff bezos is rich. i think people are looking for some of the multiple options around consolidated economic activity certainly with a variety of a variety of options for deliveries and whatnot. >> what is your rating on tesla now? do you have a price target >> i'm still bullish our focus has been around the technology >> well, that was what my point was. you're just arguing that point >> i didn't argue with you on the technology point at all. all right. what is your price target. >> my price target is north of
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$400 we feel very good about where they are sitting from a technology perspective >> even with the mean tweets >> the cycle in front of additional -- in front of their competition in terms of the position they're at from a cost perspective. >> all right >> and driving new technology. >> all right still got a $400 price target despite of the mean tweets we've got to go. make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" is next good tuesday morning welcome to "squawk on the street." david faber has the morning off. up 5% on hopes of reopening. oil, though, is higher we did get signs that european inflation may be moderating. chinese stocks headed for their best month since '03 elon musk picks a new tight with

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