nur nurses -- and now people can't visit. >> that return on investment changes, right, when you can't get individuals here in the u.s. a lot of fun. >> always fun. i'll be back tomorrow. >> so am i. >> yay >> that does it for us on "power lunch. "closing bell" begins right now. stocks stuck in a range a. investors look forward to the fed speech tomorrow from jay powell welcome, everyone torque "closing bell. take a look at where we stand in the market right now, dow is down at 53 at the low of the day we were down 187, so it's been a choppy day, the nasdaq taking a hit again. the s&p 500 remains positive for

the month. we have two more trading days left here's a sector at the heat map. the pressure is clearly on tech at the bottom of the list there. that's apple, also some other losers in there today like paypal, amazon is weighing on that group, so is tesla. both are down almost 2% today. there's strength in real estate, energy, financials, industrials and materials t real estate was the worst performing yet in just a moment, we will talk to big nygren. he says some stocks look very cheap and he's bringing like his shopping list, and liz ann sonders will be here as well let's start with today's dashboard. mike santoli >> mild moves at the index

level, very much a diverging market that effect is continued sideways movement. as a matter of fact where we are right now in the mid 3900s brings us back to where it stood. >> holding a bit, but not by too much here we energy and financials, the peak of the tech bubble in 2000, surged into the global financial crisis right ahead of that. right up here is tech and health care, the growth names really peaking there. you see them waxing and waning

it basically shows you we've started to see this resurgence in energy and financials over the last year or so. it's mostly a proxy for the growth versus value trade-off that we get here one cautionary note, when we got to right about there, this is roughly a 20% weighting in energy and finance, you would have said that's what you have to buy right now that's the way it kept going, so you can't bet on it. maybe, the point is the tide has started to turn, but if it goes back toward any kind of median area, there's more for this to grow >> you can also look at some of the winners as cyclicals. >> yes. >> with so many outlooks out, starting to reflect recessions, saying that's -- aren't that a vulnerable part of the market? >> they outperformed in the early 2000s.

we had a recession during and after. yes, they are cyclical, but they're often more about the cheapness and whether they're beneficiaries of inflation or high yields, or whether they suffered. >> in other words, not necessarily. >> there are many factors that go into it, but that's the alternate moss spheric conditions. >> for more on the market and finding value opportunities, that was music to this man's ears bill nygren, i'm sure you liked what mike had to say overall, is this market cheap? >> i'm not going to say the overall market is cheap, if we define the market as the s&p 500, but the spread of p/pals is about 30% wider, so there's lots of very expensive and here we're always looking at undervalued names out of favor

they tend to be the low p/e multiple names so, i think the value trade has got got a lot of room left. >> let's start going through your list of stocks. you have capital one on there, which i pick out, because financials are doing a bit better, one of the groups that mike highlighted, but the risks of recession, the change in the credit cycle, is that reflected all right in the stock >> the covid stimulus was helpful, employment has been really strong, especially in the unskilled labor end of the market that's what capital one's market is the stock sells at about six times earnings in both the past couple years, it's brought back 10% of the shares outstanding, has a yield

close to 3%. we think they have one of the most efficient technologically advanced lenders out there it's a name we like a lot. >> despite higher credit costs and funding pressures. media is another area i want to get to with us charter communications, also on the new buy list >> yeah. charter is one of the largest capable operator, importantly today that means internet providers. the profitability really comes from providing internet service. charter sells as less than ten times free cash flow they too have bought back 10% of their stock. i think it's interesting to look at the comparison. i think electric utilities sell at about a 70% premium on a p/e

multiple basis i think they will eventually look at it as an infrastructure play >> i guess the problem with charter and the knock against this one is just competition, right? you mentioned cord cutting, cord-nevers, the competition with the streamerers, and also with some of the capable providers like dish and directv. >> if you focus on video, there's a ton of competition video is not where the profits are at charter charter, as well as comcast, provide excellent internet access, by far the industry-leading product, gives fastest speeds to consumers at the best prices, and there really isn't much competition for them the more people stream, the faster the internet service they need >> speaking of media, disney, i think, was a buy for you guys in

the second quarter how much value do you see there, now that bob iger has returned >> our interest is in disney because of the their assets, much more than the people managing it. we think the theme parks are one of the best businesses in the world, and that at current prices, you're really not paying for much else. the film library is outstanding, and we appreciate bob iger's focus to returning that part of the business to profitability long term. we this i it's a cheap stock and exceptional business. >> it's been trading in part with the streamers, and i think you also own netflix, which i was buying before it came crashing down, right >> we own netflix at 250, a little less of it as 700, a lot more of it after it fell back down around 200. we think netflix is an

attractive opportunity today we adopt think the streaming business will be a winner take most, that the annual -- and w think netflix is a winner. we also think warner is a likely winner in that battle. >> right i know you've talked about that one before you're still a believer, even though the stocks have been hit hard, getting hit now because of the ad concerns siconcerns, cycn the competition. >> the faster people move away from lynnia to streaming, the more we should expect competition, and they're we think the companies that have strong distribution and strong catalogs are the likely winners.

>> are you baking in a recession in your base case? i know you're investing for the long time, but what happens to some of these names in recession? >> our general economic overlay is five to seven years from now, we can expect the world to be normal it's rare that that ends up influencing our stock decisions. sometimes it does, like in the midst of the covid crisis a couple years ago, thinking the world would be normal in five years was a pretty positive point of view, but the amount of value in a company in the next one or two-year cash flow is really quite small, compared to the long-term value. yes, if we go through a bad recession, capital one's earnings won't be as high as they are right now borg-warner, another company we like, will probably see auto

sales decline, so their earnings won't be quite as high, but we don't they that does much at all to affect the long-term business value. where we expect the businesses to continue to grow, we think they're the right spot, whether we go through a recession or not. >> a lot of the value players like borg-warner bill, thank you very much. bill nygren. >> okay. thank you. >> good to see you. shares of taylor morrison are still in the red for the year, but up more than 40% from the lows of the summer up next, we'll talk to the ceo as new data shows a further slowdown in family home prices

the case-shiller index showing a slowdown of house prices, gains in home prices peaked about six months ago, and have been decelerating since then joining us is cheryl palmer. great to have you back on the show welcome. >> thanks, sara. good to see you today. thanks for having me. >> you too on home prices in particular, what kind of declines, if any, are you seeing, and do you expect

>> it's different market to market obviously we saw appreciation over the last 12 to 24 months, you know, depending on the market we could have seen anywhere from 25% to pa% so, yes, we are see some of that come back. what happened is you then had a doubling of interest rates since early this year, so you combine the two, and that has a significant impact on month lid payment per consumers. so in some places we're see some prices pull back a bit in other places, we're working individually with each of our customers to help them with finance programs that buy down a rate, assist them in closing costs to get them to a monthly payment that works for their individual family. >> the stock has held up

remarkably well. what has demand been light >> demand is quite different, once again, in different parts of the country i don't think you have a remark situation, but a community by community. we have seen demand slow down, but those weren't normal levels. we still have good demand in the markets, but it certainly is off the peak we also have introduced our most recently introduced our bo bottomed -- build to rent brand. what's between family lives and apartments with private backyards, low maintenance living, smart home technology.

we're seeing he demand as well. >> i noticed expansion, and it made me wonder, sheryl, rend have been stubbornly high as part of the inflation problem, and why it's been so persistently high compared to what the fed is trying to do is it more expensive to rend or to buy with mortgage rates surging? >> once again, you have to look at the individual community and market, but you certainly have seen those get much closer, and serving a very different consumer when i look at rents, we're still seeing continued appreciation, but in both instances, sara, we're still very supply constrained. there's just not enough rooftops, it doesn't matter whether for sale or for rent, we're still undersupplied, i would say. depends on which number you want

to believe, anywhere from 1 to 3 million units. having said that, with sales slowing down, i think we will start to see a see a bit of a buildup on the -- >> given the changing market conditions, what are your expectations, sheryl, as you plan for the future, how many homes you want to build, what the market will look like in the next few years, given what rates have done? >> as i look into 2023, 2024, as you mentioned, sara, the fed has clearly targeted inflation, and has been very clear on its intentions i would say home building is right in the cross-hairs i think we need to better understand the actual numbers. we're still working a bit in kind of yesterday's numbers, the

fed is continuing to fight inflation, but not seeing the reality of what we're seeing on the ground i expect we'll have continued tightening having said that, you know, if earp to look backs two, three years ago, we were seeing interest rates well into the 7s. today i would say we're quoting something before we consider any sort of buydowns to help the consumer, something in the mid to high 6s that gives us the ability to help the customer. when we can find that normalization between pricing and interest rates, there's still strong demand. i think we're going to get back to what i would call a new normal we haven't seen that in a number of years with covid and then the, you know, the tremendous demand we have seen for the last two or three years still, undersupplied, adequate need, but certainly not at the peak levels we had been

operating at for the last 18 months. >> sheryl, it's great color on the market i appreciate you joining me today. >> thank you good to see you. bye-bye. that was the ceo from taylor morrison we were higher during the day, but the losses are moderating it's back you're see strength in groups like real estate, energy today is higher by about 1.5%, financials, industrials, all strong it's tech that is getting hit hard the ceos of kroger and albertson's are testifying now about the proposed megamerger. up next, we'll break down the arguments before and against that deal. and before the break, bilibili is surging today, up 22% or so, but i have to say,

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what is wall street budging about? merger politics. the ceos of kroger and -- are testifying expect bipartisan bashing here as issues of foot insecurity, inflation, unions, competition, they're all political hot potatoes, but remember, legislators don't get a say, but it's up to the ftc to sign on this deal. i'm told that process has begun, and i'm told it's in the early information-gathering stage.

now, kroger will argue that the landscape for buying groceries in this country has changed dramatically in the last ten years. you have the big box stores, not just pure play old-school grocers. there's also the digital grocery players as well i'm to go crosser has already invested in keeping surprises low, and is putting $500 mill into that investment as part of the deal i'm also told on the union issue, kroger's ceo will say today it's committed to not close any stores as part of this deal, protecting the jobs of 700,000 associates, something the ftc will likely require, too. but the market has its doubts. albert sons stock is till away from the deal price. today may be an early test of

how the executives sell it to the public and regulators. rodney mcmullen will be on this show on thursday. liz ann sonders joins with us her brand-new outlook for 2023, including why she sees a sunnier forecast for the back half of next year. we'll be right back.

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stocks are off the lows from earlier today, but still negative on the session. nasdaq actually turning negative for the month of november today. our next guest says weaker economic trends are likely for next year, but a mild recession could set stocks up for a better second half. joining us chief investment officer, liz ann sonders, almost sounds positive, which i haven't heard from you for a long time >> i don't know if it's so precise to the second half it's really just trying to gauge when some of the headwinds that i think the market is still facing, including inflation having started to come down, but certainly not near the the fed putting the brfoot on the brake

bit longer, but when the market had a lot of excess, we are trading at all-time highs, there was really no consideration of weakness the fed hadn't lifted off the zero bound now at the recent lows, you had not only just the s&p down 25%, but the average s&p member that had a 35% drawdown, even bigger for the nasdaq so, a lot of pain has already, i think, been digested by the market i think what is still ahead is further downward revisions to forward earnings, and further deterioration in the labor market. >> that's sort of what i was going to ask, liz ann, how far in the market do you expect it's

gone >> yes, i think we're in an early revision we've been talking about it in the context of a rolling recession. there are pockets of the economy undoubtedly in a recession the stay-at-home types of areas within the economy ceo confidence, consumer confidence, but we've had of outsetting parts of the services on the side. that's rolled through the inflation data as well, but i think it will roll through the earnings deterioration from a sector to sector standpoint. so i think the answer to the recession is yes, but it may just be more of the rolling variety than your more standard, sort of bottom falls out all at once. >> if you like the setup better going into next year than last year, would you be interested in technology, one of the most beaten-down parts of the market?

>> i would be care 68 about a monolithic call on tech as a sector as you know, sara, we have talkedabout on this program, we've been more factor-based investing rather than just broad perspectives healthy balance sheet, positive earnings revisions, positive earnings surprise. those are the types of factors you said to look for it's certainly possible to find it in the tech sector. i think we're in an important shift, maybe away from mega-cap, techie type of names to are the so of the average stock. with you return of something that's actually a risk-free rate, i think that pricing distortions, ownership lack of price discovery meant as an investor you could look at m mono

monolithically now it's operating on a more level playing field with passive, so i think maintaining that factor approach, aniscreening for characteristics i think makes more sense. >> i get the big risk to the forecast is that we don't have a mild recession, we get something potentially deeper and uglier, or the fed goes too far -- are you confident it's going to be mild >> no, i'm not to me the best-case scenario is more of the same, where recessions roll through, with pockets of weakness offset by pockets of strength. but there is a risk, either because of what the fed is doing, they overshoot. that's not necessarily a bad setup in the sense that it would lead them to not just paw, but

pivot sooner, versus a benign scenario, that to some degrees then i think you have the risk longer term. i don't think there's a perfect sonar use here, certainly not in the first half of the year, where everything just lands beautifully for the fed. i think it's more pain near term, a little less later, or vice versa. >> his ann sonders, thank you very much. >> good to see you. >> sharing the fresh off the presses outlook. down 17 points or so in the park market, a bit of a recovery on the s&p 500 technology is still under pressure, but you have the strength in real estate carrying the market, energy, financials having a strong day, industrials, materials all working. it's why the small caps are having a strong day as well.

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mike santoli is here to break down the crucial moments of the trading day, and matt shea on holiday retail more broadly with the market sort of standing in place at the index level, but it's all about the sector there's rotation into energy, financial, industrials, technology not so much i wanted to mention the consumer confidence number. it was a beat, but another decline in november and the expectationscomponents in particular was. >> it doesn't directly feed

into, at least not right now, the fed easing its posture, anything like that the consumer confidence has been one of those things in that bundle of data their pre-recessionary lid ann was talking about ceo confidence, that's in there, you put it together with the yield curve, and you understand why collectively people are bracing for a higher probability of a statistical recession of some kind next year is the push back against that is the starting point was unusual and an joeall high level of volatility so you're seeing the shift that's dramatic, but not necessarily translating into employment losses and broad suffering at the consumer level, aside from prices. >> true. let's hit apple. it's a big weight, taking a hit against today, 2.5% after a closely followed analyst said

iphone 14 shipments will be 15 to 20 million units left after a protest at a product plant in china. yesterday we heard there could be a reports up to 6 million shortfalls due to protests and i should point out none of these are not from apple. >> just to be clear, apple hasn't give an update. last we heard was early november, they expect to sell fewer of the iphone 14 pros. like you mentioned, ming chi quo, he's estimating 15 to 20 million shortfall. barclays up to 20 million. loop capital 10 million. evercore is lower, and it's all

because of the unsearches, can they spin up production. we note they won't be able to do it for the holidays. can they do it to get people to continue to buy at least into january. the barclays note expressed pessimism that they think the demand to fall off the cliff after the holidays if they can't get their iphone 14 pro, they just won't buy it at all analysts are expecting on a unit basis sales to be flat for the iphone, and now they're saying it could be 20 million lower than that. 70 million iphone also. >> the stock done 8% so far this month. the nasdaq just turned negative, still down 20% for the year, but it's gog crushed here. >> that's the key point, it's

giving up some of the outperformance and valuation premium it's maintained. there is a lot of money in apple that's there because of the haven status, because of the great balance sheet, because of the buyback, the buffett effect, and the perceived steadiness of the upgrade cycle. all those things together are why apple got where it was and why it's been a net beneficiary relative to the rest of the nasdaq it trades at 22 times forward earnings, it's down from the peak around 30, but up from its average before the pandemic. why shouldn't it trade at 19 to 20 that still would be a healthy pre premiums in also just because people want to pile in and say it's a safe bet in a storm. >> or maybe it's the twitter fight that apple and the tweeter

in chief, elon musk, going after apple. again taking jabs at the company. does it matter >> i don't see how this could impact apple if twitter is not necessarily a revenue generator for apple. they have that subscription service that maybe generates a bit for them, but it's not going to lose out if they decide to kick apple off the store apple has shown no sign they would remove the app he would have to deliberately try to break the rules for apple to want to do that, then we get into a big battle. it seems like twitter will not get yanked, snow matter how much elon musk complains about it. how about the cruise lines they are pop after carnival said cybermonday salesexceeded pre-pandemic levels.

seema mody joins us -- i would say challenging pandemic, and even post-pandemic, it's been bumpy for this group. >> this 50% jump in bookings compared to 2019 levels is a big number, but the context here is that the company is, of course, offering promotions, also a $50 on-board credit they can use once they're on board a activities, but i think this is reflective of what we're seeing across travel, the pent-up demand the question is whether the bookings number will continue to get stronger and if it will stop or lower of the risk of the company going back to the debt market two weeks ago it does offer a new debt offering, but that continues ton an overhang, still down about 52% to date that's the broader concern in

general. yes, recoveries in bookings, will you but will it stop them from raising more debt. >> what do the analysts say, seema? are they good buys >> stifel has a buy on royal caribbean. others seem to be more bullish on norwegian, which has the pulse on the luxury traveler less positive on carnival, i would say, of those we track on wall street. >> mike, what do you think about valuations here, and just what is being factored in, as far as return to any type of normal cruising environment >> generally pretty badly impaired balance sheets. obviously they are the kinds of stocks that were so at the epicenter of the covid crash and the pandemic period. just as a general principle, those are not areas of the market that tend to get toward recovery very quickly. if you look at the declines from the highs, it's pretty severe.

they're obviously in a mode of trying to preserve whatever revenue growth they can. just really to keep things from worsening on the balance sheets. it obviously differs from character to character, but i don't think this is necessarily an area that is too tightly tied to the overall part of the economy because of what happened to the balance sheets in the last couple years. >> seema, thank you. it was a record-breaking weekend for thanksgiving shopping here with an exclusive look at the data, matt shea, ceo nrf. exactly what broke rods? >> good to see you. >> you too. >> our forecast is we would have 166 million people out we actually had 196 million shopping that's 26 million more than a year ago it told us a couple things one, it told us all of us as americans are looking to get back out, be engaged in social

activities, to go back to some of the pre-pandemic behaviors we've missed we also saw big promotions, by sa sales. >> the traffic numbers are most surprising i wouldn't be surprised that americans spend more, because we're paying more, even with the promotions, right, matt? that has to be reflected somewhere here. >> that's part of it, sara, but there are different measures for inflation, and we use pce, as the fed does, but that also included services, and depending on what kind of customer you are, if you're pay fog gasoline, buying a car, paying for food, we've seen inflation there, but on apparel and other items, there's not been that much -- and there's positive real growth, even in a challenging economy like this one. >> one thing is for sure, it's

not recessionary type of behavior we just had liz ann sonders say we're in rolling recession, but it doesn't sound like that's what you're seeingy the consumers? >> consumers are clearly aware of inflation yet for 30 consecutive months we've had increases in year-over-year retail sales consumers keep finding ways to power the economy. and as long as the labor market remains as tight as it is with 10 million jobs unfilled, 5 million people self-identifying as actively looking, we have a 2 to 1 ratio of open jobs to people, that keeps wages up. if we can avoid a self-inflicted wound like the rail strike, i think we're still in good shape for the holiday season there's a long way to go i think we're in pretty good

shape. we stand by our forecast of 6% to 8%. >> it looks like congress will move to avert this we'll see if we can bill it looks like bipartisan support. if they could, and we do see this take effect, what would that mean? >> i think for the economy broadly, certainly for the retail industry, there's going to be some goods it's going to drive up shipping costs, as shipper looks to move things offrail, but i think the impact to consumer psyche, consumer confidence, we have seen this before with government shutdowns, with the fiscal cliff, it takes a real toll on consumers, and will have real effects. we could see plants idled, we have food insecurity issues, so there's a whole range of knock-on effects, all of which would have the impact of really damaging consumer psyche at a

critical time. we feel confident based on our conversations they're going to get this done. we felt good about president biden's support for that >> just to be clear, it doesn't threaten holiday cease, does it, matt isn't that inventory already in stores, in stock. >> i think a lot of the inventories is in distribution if the rail lines shut down and all that freight has to get diverted somewhere, it's going to go on to trucks that will push off the other inventory that's there that the drive up prices for everyone secretary buttigieg has done a

lot of work on this, and talked about at length the kind of recovery we've seen. the last thing we need is to put more pressure on the economy in that way, and driving up the challenges that consumers feel as we get to the end of the year. >> matt shay from the nrf, thank you. >> appreciate it. we're off the lows mike. what do you see in the experiment >> decidedly strong it's almost 3 to 1 advancing to declining. so basically you have traction below the surface, even though not much is happening. take a look at the two-year note yield. fed chair powell with a speech tomorrow the yield has gone flat for about six weeks. mid october is when the equity rally got going and we bottomed

there. it suggests we priced the fed path okay, at least to the market's satisfaction rye now. right know it psych like the -- the vick backed off a bit. up off the lowing, but not yesterday regressively reversed a bit of a sell-off. the dollar is a bit firmer. as we head into the close, the s&p 500 climbing toward the flight line here, only done a tenth of 1%, the dow just going positive, so some buying here into the close american express the biggest contributeors to the dow -- actually i'm going to correct myself and say boeing. biggest lieuer is unitedhealthcare and home depot.

the nasdaq will close with a decline of about 0.5%, so down about 2% for the week. for the month it's flat, with one more trading day left in november after today the s&p and the dow are still positive for the month that's it for me see you tomorrow into "overtime" with scott all right. sara, thank you very much. welcome to "overtime." we're just getting started from post 9 here. if you have any exposure to cloud stocks, you will not want to miss key earnings from crowdstrike and workday. we also have a very special guest today, someone who has given a lot to this country, jake wood. he is here looking forward to catching up with him