it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters and here is your top 5 at 5. fed chairman jay powell front and center as investors await new comment and hints on a possible policy pivot. unrest in china once again as police clash with protesters over covid restrictions and lockdowns. now beijing is stepping up its rhetoric live from the bahamas, former ftx sam bank man freeld set to speak today about the run-up and eventual chance of his firm with many questions still unanswered.

plus, reading the tea leaves ahead of opec's big production decision this weekend with oil near one-year lows. >> and then later on, apple ceo tim cook looks to make some new friends in washington ahead of a january power shift. it is wednesday, november 30th, 2022 you are watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc ♪ good morning i'm dominic chu. if you look right now, we're seeing a slight bid to the markets. the dow is roughly higher by roughly 40 points, the nasdaq up by 389 38 very modest, but it's green for now. the dow is up nearly 37.5% this

month and on pace for the first time in more than a year the nasdaq continues to lag. down marginally, on pace for its third down month out of the last four still, though, just marginally we'll see if the nasdaq can turn things around today. the yields are certainly low owner the session. we're currently sitting at right around 3.73% for the 10-year the 2-year at 4.47 and the 30-year, 3.79% opec plus is a mystery but wti crude is big, up 2.25%, up about $1.07 ice brent crude futures up 1.82

to $84.89 right now we're seeing prices to the upside, up by 2.5%, 16,873 in change for bitcoin price. ethereum up $1,265 and change as well checking the overnight action in asia and trade in europe we have our own karen tso standing by in our london newsroom with the latest there good morning >> good morning to you possible icing on the cake for the hong kong market compare that evaluation coming to the fore. notwithstanding the fact there are still challenges in china. we have the latest read on factory activity this was a slower than expected pace for november.

still further protests on the ground around restrictions in china very much in focus in the overnight hour the hong kong market in slight gains. japanese stocks are up in europe, we had a big day. it's encouraging the eu inflation numbers, 10%. the expectation was for 10.4%. slow moves but still going in the right direction. also reversing from the 10.6% we had in the month of october. on the markets we're seeing a stronger trade we've given up the lower ranges as we take a look at a half a percent change again, a bumper month for german stocks we've been up more than 8% in november italian stocks have beenkeepin pace as well those have been some of the stronger markets it's all very key as we count down to the next ecb meeting

will it be 60 basis points or 75 that's what the market is watching at this stage back to you. >> children cho with the latest on the market action thank you very much for. that let's get to the top corporate stories. silvana is here with that. good morning. >> good morning to you elon musk is rolling back a policy aimed at tackling misinformation related to covid-19 they did not specify the mitigation measures they would no longer support, but the move comes amid concerns of twitter's ability to fight the information with half the staff gone including those responsible for content moderation apple ceo tim cook is getting ready for split congress to washington, dc, this week, to meet reportedly with several top lawmakers. according to bloomberg, cook has scheduled meetings with jim

jor jordan and representative darrell issa, and representative cathy mcmorris rodgers. jack ma has reportedly been living in tokyo for six months following the crackdown and derailment of his group. along with tokyo, ma has also been traveling to the japanese country-size, the u.s., and israel, dom. >> and now with the latest on those headlines, thank you very much for that. when we come back to the show, unrest in china. this time in the face of police presence. plus a bad year for tech is about to get even worse according to our next guest, especially when it comes to digital advertising. the stocks he says you need to stay away from coming up and then later on, what investors should expect when sam bankman-fried speaks at this vear's deal book conference. a ry busy hour when "worldwide

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welcome back that's gouangzhouguangzhou, chia

there was a clash with riot police those demonstrations come just 24 hours after relative calm following sunday's widespread demonstrations over the country's now three-year-long covid lockdowns due to covid zero and that policy our eunice yoon joins us from beijing. eunice, these videos, i'm even surprised we could get them because china censors internet traffic and whatnot. that's obviously coming from someone's smartphone camera. is this the time for beijing to prepare a more formal response over what's been happening the last few days? >> reporter: dom, i'm having a little bit of an audio issue, but i think you were talking about the guangzhou video of the protests what's interesting is the mood of those protesters as well as the public could be affected by a big development in chinese

politics today the death of the former president and communist party general secretary jiang zemin. minutes ago state meade dwra said jiang died in shanghai at the age of 96 due to leukemia and organ failure. now, china was tremendously successful under his tenure. china joined the wto it also successfully oversaw the return of hong kong to china from the uk, and it was a time when gm, mcdonald's, as well as a lot of other multi-american nationals came into the country because it was a time when there was tremendous economic reform opening up there are already comparisons being made to the time of jong xeomin or before the tiananmen

square incident in 1989. that's because there was also a death and memorials which had sparked the tiananmen square protests so people are making comparisons already, and in light of the fact we have these covid protests as well as a lot of these concerns, the chinese leadership is going to be thinking a lot about this. >> eunice yoon is your audio up can you hear me? >> reporter: now i can hear you. >> my question before was

guan guangzhou, is beijing preparing a response they've seen several days of this unrest. the police presence is there there has to be some more, i guess, forceful approach they're taking whether it's formalized or not >> reporter: no. beijing -- the seen your leadership has not actually acknowledged the protests at all yet. so from a leadership level, central government level, they haven't actually formalized any type of response however, what we did see on a local level is the city of g guangzhou is lifting its lockdown it's still keeping control in the high-risk areas, especially, they say, one particular district people have said they're starting to see some of those controls easing up dom? eunice yoon with the latest from beijing. thank you very much. to the broader markets as we

wait for the speech from jay powell into the inside policy pivots we use that word a lot today ahead of that, a tweet reply from elon musk just this morning urging the fed to pivot sooner rather than later, reading, quote, trend is concerning, referring to a possible recession, fed needs to cut interest rates immediately they are massively amplifying the possibility of a severe recession. joining me on the 411 is ben emons. this is very interesting elon musk carries a lot of sway in the business world and otherwise and even he is calling for the fed to cut interest rates is that the appropriate action, or do we still have to fight inflation more force fli >> good morn, dom. yeah, i think they're fight inflation camp

there's a rise in inflation expectation rates. that's a concern and problem although elon musk is pointing to the effect it's having on the economy, the fed is still in the mode of, we've got to bring this rate up to a level where we're sure that inflation comes down and avoid a recession. so they're not going to unfortunately listen to elon musk or, for example, to the business leaders who are complaining about fed tighten i ing. powell will stick to the strong message today about fighting inflation until we get it under control. >> that inplies, ben, that inflation is a bigger threat than an economic downturn or recession. we also heard the view that a recession may or may not be necessary to get inflation under control. how is one supposed to navigate

a financial market and investing environment where you almost have to see a recession possibly in order to get inflation under control? >> yeah. it's the most telegraphed recession ever you look at people and businesses that's what businesses are doing, telegraphing and preparing for recession. in some way you have to navigate the markets in that perspective. companies will have to scale back and be more cautious. as a result, a recession may then happen. you can't take significant riff income one direction or the other, right in other words, you can't be overweight equities too much because of that recession, and bonds remain a challenge, too, because the federal reserve wants to get the recession under control yochl view to be quite carb even though it looks like inflation is stark and moderate. >> does ma mean, ben, we return

to the 60/40 stock partnership portfolio or we start to position for even more downside ahead? >> 60/40 can work again next year the best position, dom, could be in the shorter end of the u-curve. you would put the 40 oninequiti. that's a more conservative approach in equities i think you can do reasonably well ramming up all that cash never should be a good way i think you should stay invested in the market. >> interesting point with a lot of investors i speak to, smart folks, saying why take the risk when you can park your two- two-treasures for 4% still on the show, the rate

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." wall street is look at weekly mortgage apps and the october home index both due out later this morning this is on back of the s&p case-shiller plan that fell. the decline matching forecasts as surge interest rates have pushed buyers to the sidelines, no shock there let's talk more about this with brad gillman, chief economist at courtland. this is not shock at all, brad i say this tongue-in-cheek how much more downside can we see in real estate >> as long as rates keep going up, we're going to see more downside, i think. >> if that's the case, how much is it? we've heard 20% thrown out there, we've heard more than that we're haev southward sam think could be akin to the lead-up of

the great financial prices when real estate prices plummeted by even more than that. is there a prospect for that o for idea of a more shallow procession one that's going to p prop up the housing market on a relative basis >> i'll take the latter. it was significantly overbuilt in terms of the number of housing units. >> if that's then the state of play for real estate, there are certain markets out there that have been more supply and demand imbalanced than others you think of hot sectors in the southeastern united states, metropolitan areas what's the most vulnerable right now geographically speaking? >> that's a great question i think we also have to consider migration into that factor as well as immigration. so immigration, you're tending

to get a lot of people going to gateway markets and coastal markets. you've seen a lot of domestic migration to the sunbelt that's been very bullish to the markets, but at the same time, you've had a supply response as we i think about less in terms of geeing on graffiti i think of some people who have gotten over their skis and perhaps may end up on the wrong side of things if you end up with systemic job losses >> brad, it wasn't just home owners it. was also institution and commercial real estate invest whoers took advantage of the low interest rates to build out as well when you look at real estate and

you look at the residential market in terms of what's happening with commercial real estate, is there any more of a difference in terms of where you see the market headed? is one worse than the other, commercial or residential right now? >> there's definitely pain in the commercial space too many groups went out and used cheap debt i don't think anyone expected to see short end rates, and they're paying for that now. we're seeing the class e space where there have been some failures to pay. otherwise you're seeing it hold pretty well on the fundamental side so even as the investors themselves o are paying more, the fundamentals of the space are still quite strong one caveat to that is occupancies are loosening a bit. they're going to a more vacancy rate in the markets. they've been too low in the pandemic as a result of the eviction moratoria and evictions around that to make sure people weren't going to be evicted for

no reason. that created strong rent growth to which we're seeing a supply response. >> brad dillman, thank you very much we appreciate it. let's get a check this morning on the other top headlines. nbc's phillip mena has more. good morning. >> millions remain under a threat as 21 tornadoes tore through the south. in louisiana officials say at least two people were injured in caldwell parrish take a look at the devastation tornado watches are in parts of mississippi and alabama until 6:00 a.m. central time. a federal jury found two members of the oath coopers including its founder stewart rhodes guilty of seditious

conspiracy the conviction comes with a penalty of up to 20 years behind bars rhodes' attorney says they do plan to appeal. the senate has voted to protect the same-sex marriage in way it's never been done before, the bill called the respect for marriage act passed with support from both sides of the aisle it heads to the house for a vote before it makes its way to president biden's desk that's it for now. back to you. >> thank you very much. down 30% this year, why our next guest says this stock in this mystery chart could surge to 30 bucks and beyond it's $23.98 right now. if you haven't already done so, please follow our podcast if you missed "worldwide exchange." check us out on apple, spotify, orou yr app of choichlts "worldwide exchange" in audio format we'll be right back.

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investors bracing for fed chair jay powell and futures in a holding pattern. a different story for oil and crude price. they're popping as this week's opec production shifts from in-person to personal. where energy may be heading next. >> and congress set to step in and try to put a stop to that looming national rail strike that could cripple the u.s.

economy. it's wednesday, november 30th. you are watching "worldwide exchange" right here on cnbc welcome back to "worldwide exchange." i'm in for brian sullivan, dominic chu. we've got fed speak coming up ard a big jobs number coming up as well. right now the dow implied higher by 30 points, the s&p by 8 points and the nasdaq up, 43, 44 points in the bond market, yields are ticking slightly lower when it comes to the benchmark u.s. treasury 10-year note yield. we're rounding out the final trading day of november. technology continues to be a very weak spot for investors with nasdaq, the only major index to end the month of november lower among the biggest laggards, you

have tesla deep in bear market territory up 29% from their all-time highs. joining me now is rocco strauss. thank you very much. great to have you in studio. >> thank you. >> let's talk about the current state of play, the technology trade overall. there are places now where people say things have gotten bad enough >> yeah. what are you seeing over the past month or two. there's a lot of cost-cutting happens across the board, a lot of layoffs call it the first phase of downsizing or right sizing these types of companies you'll see a second phase coming

where you go beyond the businesses likely there's a third round of cuts coming but only if we're entering into a deeper recessionary period which we hope we're not getting to. i would probably say when you look at the overall ad market, which is what i'm focusing most of my time on, the best proxy you can have looking forward is looking at what ad agencies did in '08,'09 you saw it being a very good year for them. we're now frafgt the ad market is likely declining 8% that's digital ads the major reason for that, you have an impact coming toward us,

which may be two to three points, 8% and demand construction. think about the grocery store apps you have gaming apps facing things and you have demand for electric vehicles they're pulling the brand toward the end of the year. the only sweet spots we're seeing is the media. >> all right so if we talked about the digital ad market as you just laid out, one of the things we saw earlier this week was a stock that we don't talk about often at all it's a very small cap stock iechlts called taboola, but it's a name entrenched in onloin advertise, and yahoo! which is

privately owned by apollo has taken a 25% stake in taboola some will say is this a perhaps commentary on a maybe bottoming process in digital ad of the market overall if you have buyers willing to step in and take stakes in companies like a taboola or is this just a symptom now of people saying, hey, we need to get a presence somewhere and this is where we need to spend? >> yeah. >> i'd probably say the more you go into these periods and you have similar functions across, you know, probably 15 to 20 ad tech companies out there, some will join forces we've seen that with the gross dieeceleration in 2018. we've seen a lot of them being snapped up i think that's similar to what we're seeing with taboola and

yahoo! as well. >> when it comes to it, social media is front and center. one of the names -- and i'll put it out there we teased it this is pinterest. pinterest is not a name people think about right offer the top of their head when people say social media, but is this a stock you like given it's lost a third of its stock year to date. >> yeah. and there's a question whether it's a social media plat form. it's more search related i think we can go a step further. ice an excess repeat coming from google, having scaled a shopping business with $30 billion therele he could come in and enter a partnership with google, opening up some of that 50%

revenues to google's atwork business bringing in millions to its advertiser and ultimately you're juicing your top line massively by increasing the number of advertisers likely by 20 to 30 fold. >> interest, a top one here. thank you for joining us in person. >> glad to be here, thank you. let's get a check of the top headlines and stories. syllilvana is here now. congress is taking steps to avert the national rail strike ahead of the tedline house speaker nancy pelosi said they will vote in chambers on a vote on the tentative contract deal that was reached back in september. pelosi said they will vote to give seven days of sick paid leave to employees they're trying to quickly pass

legislation. disney is warning an upcoming restructuring could result in impairment charges the company is citing organizational and operational changes on igor's watch for a financial impact. and sam bankman-fried is about to speak he's scheduled to talk with andrew ross sorkin ahead of the sitdown, he spoke with axios saying regulation and proper oversight could have helped protect ftx from its collapse but added he bears the brunt of the blame andrew will have more coming up on "squawk box." we'll all be watching. >> thank you very much, silvana. turning to oil prices, crude looking to gain. it's now gone virtual. it will likely keep its policy

unchanged, although additional cuts could be on the table this potential move could come as lockdowns ding demands and the demand and price cap on russian oil looms ever large for more on the price action around oil, let's bring in oleg hanson there are a lot of moving parts. is this an opec plus meeting that could yield a potential game-changing catalyst it doesn't seem like traders and investors are viewing it that way right now. >> good morning, dom i think it would be very dependent on the price action into the friday session. i don't think they'll do anything additional simply because we don't know the full impact of the lockdowns in china

yet. there is real-time that suggests mobility is not hurt to the extent we've seen in the last week and we mentioned the embargo that will result in another drop in supply. i think with that in mind, we're probably going to keep it in drive for now, but surely the level is not the price that they would have invested just a few months ago considering it's back to where we started on the year. >> olay, the chart, we're showing the chart for wti, u.s. benchmark prices there's no doubt it's a long-to medium turn downtrend. what prices are opec and its past never countries looking to stable asia crude at we heard rumblings from the biden administration about a look to replenish our extra teechlkic petroleum reserve,

around 70 bucks a barrel if it were to happen what is it trying to figure out in terms of price? >> they saw it into november leading to the cut they made but the cut so far is probably evened out the reduction we're seeing from china. so with that in mind they will continue to keep an eye on demand of the oil. they're somewhat concerned having heard from the head of saudi arabia, i think that's the area they would like to see on trade within at a relatively stable -- with a relatively stable price action. i would imagine it's clearly not in their interest, and it's not

one considering the war in ukraine and sanctions against rush and global demand still rising they don't feel the price is warranted at this time. >> ole, before we let you go, you mentioned the russian oil prices looming and inflation caps as well, is it going to have an effect on oil prices >> the euro is trading it will be well below the price cap levels they have talked about. i think for now it's to a certain extent dead in the water. it may be revisited if we see a sfresh spike in oil price. but at this point it's more the embargo and the talk about a price cap that could potentially underpin the prices over the

weeks. >> thank you very much, sir. we'll see you soon. coming up on the show, your morning's big money movers including one bioshare company surging ahead 30%. ahead of the opening bell. "worldwide exchange" returns after this break i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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being both on the top and bottom lines t company also raising its full fiscal year subscription outlook. it announced a buyback program shares up right now about 8.57 in the premarket trade a different story for shares of crowd strike, plunging on a weaker than expected growth strike for new revenue, earnings, topping expectations the ceo citing, quote, unquote, macroeconomic headwinds for the disappointing outlook. then there's our mystery chart, which is horizon therapeutics, those shares taking off after its board revealed takeover offers it's in talks with imjen, strategy

it can't be sure that offers will be made beany of the three, but shares are up 32% in the premarked. >> time now for something random but interesting. if their we send it out to brian sullivan for rbi time now for your morning rbi. it's back. today let's get macroabout the mae crowe economy. deutsche bank economists have been noting for the while the sign of an incoming recession is number of states of economic activity as measured by the reserve bank let's get into that action loobld at the chart they've made the blue line is the number of states with increasing economic activity the higher the line on the chart, the more they have positive economic data that's a good thing. in the meantime the gray shaded areas are recession going back to the 1980s

it plummets. that seems obvious recessions are slowdowns but deutsche bank notes there's a bit of a tell to look at the future they found that the sign of a possible coming recession is when five or more states decline for seven straight months. when that happen, recessions hit not long after it happened in the mid-80s, '90s, and 2000s. where are we now we're getting close to that mark deutsche bank notes the number of states declining was six in june, three in july. that's a good sign but 16, 9, and now a whopping 27 states showing declining economic activity in october 27 states. that is the most since covid first hit. all right, so a lot going on here, but the bottom line is this we've had four in the past five months where more than five

states saw declining activity. deutsche bank says we need seven in a row to be the tell. they expect it's likely to come in the second half of the year obviously we're going to keep following this data and see if this month and december fit that trend. if they do, i guess we'll call it the unlucky seven random, but interesting. >> all right, brian sullivan, thank you very much for the rbi. on deck, why elon musk is calling on the fed to take easing action. jenny harrington is standing by on that an where she says you should be putting your money to work right now, including shares of one beaten up retailer. we've got that coming up next. it's a reminder. today it's famed investor picking system of the bigger names in the market and smaller stocks that may have a run he's taking your subscriber

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plus, we're paying off up to a million dollars of student debt. enter at sofi.com/million sofi get your money right. welcome back at:15, november adp employment, 8:30, quarter three real gdp, 10:00 a.m., october pending home sales, october jolts at 2:00 p.m., we'll have more and several fed speeches including michelle bowman and lisa cook. at 1:30 p.m., the highly anticipated speech from fed chair jerome powell.

let's dive into the trading day ahead. let's brick 's bring in jenny hn jenny, i wanted to show you this elon musk tweet from earlier this morning referring to the pocket of a recession. he says, trend is concerning fed needs to cut interest rates immediately. they are massively amplifying the probability of a severe recession. a is a severe recession, jenny, something you're expecting in the coming weeks and months? >> no, but i also think it's more important when you read a tweet like that, when you read a statement like that, the first thing we all need to do is consider the motivation, and so what's elon musk's motivation on saying something like this, his one of i'm the richest man in the world status is totally propped up on the predication of

tesla's stock. why was it stepped up? because of the return of higher return companies ride this and i'm super cynical and concept cal and saying, oh, what's he really wants he wants his tesla stock go back up the reality is, no, we don't need to cut rates to avoid a severe and deep recession. we've been saying for the past year, 12, 15 months, are these rolling recessions ultimately they lead to a broader, more mild, maybe no recession. i think we'll have one, but it will be more mild. when i think about the fed cutting, my skin bristles. the reason for that is the reason we're in this mess is because of ten-plus years of free money, near zero interest rates. what that did was completely broke down the risk return relationship you couldn't for the past

five-plus years with no functional risk-free rate of return to use, you couldn't run proper net present value and cash evaluations what are we doing now? we're recreates a functional market so, no, the fed should not just suddenly cut and pivot just to juice up the valuations of the nose bleed stocks again. >> all right. >> call medicine cal. >> fair enough people are taking one view or the other. one of the factors or predications that goes into that narrative, that story, is the retail consumer because consumer spending makes up such a big part of the u.s. economy this is the holiday shopping season we've got to kind of tie it all together what youare you seeing right now is it strong enough to power the big policy

>> the consumers are strong. but it's the services. they have eclipsed it in terms of the gdp when we look at the portfolio and think what can we do well, one of the stocks that pops right up for us is marriott. even though it's not a cheap valuation, it's got huge earnings growth ahead. that's one of the service stocks also jetblue i think we've seen their earnings start to return very nicely, so i think these kinds of things will stave off a severe recession, but i don't think it's the spending on goods. i think maybe that's a little -- you know, everyone is kind of sick o of spending on goods. we spent on goods and pulled a lot of demand during the pandemic time to do fun stuff again. >> but, jenny, you're saying

they've not spent on goods but we had black friday and cyber monday retail sales. they have to present some kind of value. >> for sure. and thank you for bringing that bag. we saw record black friday stakes on a normal basis, they were great. on a real basis, there was almost no growth but the point is they still spent. and to your point, dom, a lot of the retailers like coals and american eagle, we still like the company and the stock. we're seeing share prices do extremely well why is that? because the prices had been so punished anticipating the consumer would lay down and die. le well i don't think the numbers are extraordinary that we're seeing, they're much better than what expectations were i don't think that's what's

going to stash off -- i doble think these kinds of companies and earnings stabilities, that's the right way to say it, that's going to stave off a recession when you look at the possibilities of gdp i think this comes from the services sector. that's a great point on how the consumer sentiment is. >> we'll see you soon. thanks very much that does it here for us on "worldwide exchange. stockmarkets right now are i678 plying a modest enoping bell "squawk box" picks up the coverage that's next. we'll see you tomorrow as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind.

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good morning investors awaiting word from jay powell ahead of the december fed meeting as the inversion hits

new highs in terms of 70, 75 basis points we'll tell you what to expect. protests again erupting in china after 24 hours of clachl beijing stepping up its rhetoric. and congress to step in to try to put a stop to that looming national rail strike that could cripple the u.s. economy. it's wednesday, november 30th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" on cnbc. we're live from the market at times square jay powell will be on at 2:00. and there will be an