health side are being left to question the novelty's kind of worn off and it's more expensive. >> i think the people are looking at the cost of what they're spending at the grocery store and thinking, i've got to cut back pippa, thanks. >> thank you all very much for watching "power lunch." >> "closing bell" starts right now. i hope you have a great day. it has been an up-and-down session following the big session. up and down at the moment. the dow is pulling back as we kick off the final month of the year this is the make or break hour for your money i'm mike santoli in for sara eisen. pulling into positive territory preserving the 3 president 1% gain from yesterday so far you see the dow down quite a bit. down almost half a percent a good chunk of it, about half of it is salesforce. take a look at salesforce

getting slammed, weighing heavily on the dow, good for 90 points on the downside at the moment this is after the departure of brett taylor we'll have more on that move just ahead. also on today's show, we'll speak with the ceo of kroger fresh off earnings before the bell and testimony earlier this week in the cincinnati surrounding the pejd nding deal we started -- october 13th was that one low it sprinted up here, kind of pointed out that this downtrend line for the entire year, the market peeked on january 3rd of this year and it's still declined down 15% here you have met that line. it was also in the vicinity, closed its 200-day average there's some inklings, that the market is trying to gather itself up, feasting on a little bit of a sense that the range is

at least in sight and the economy is holding together right now. take a look at the stock and bond portfolio, the standard 60/40 version of that in etf form this is a global 60/40 portfolio, but it track as what usa-based one would do you saw the stocks and bonds climbing together. yields going up as stocks were going down remember six months into the year and eight months into the year, nine months into the year. it was the worst ever start for a calendar year for the 640/40 portfolio. you've gotten some relief right here and this one has kind of nosed above that down trend. what that means is investors are perhaps suggesting or at least trying to bet a little more than they were a few months ago that an economic soft landing might be plausible even if it's not something we can bet on. let's talk a little bit more about this and what it's going to mean for the markets. this morning we got the october results for the core index

showing a rise of 2.0% that was less than expected tomorrow we'll get the highly anticipated jobs report for november joining us now are jay bryson from wells fargo and janet welcome to you both. i love your take on where we sit with the economy you look at things like manufacturing, the ism in contraction mode housing is hurting yet income, jobs, consumer spending on services seems okay. how does that net out to you >> net/net it seems like the economy seems to expand right now. probably at a below trend pace we're talking maybe 1.5% it's not in the negative territory yet. i guess the think we worry about you have a bunch of fed tightening already in the

pipeline and probably more coming as jared powell indicated yesterday. >> yes, more coming. i guess the key question is how much more, and did chair powell, jay, suggest that there's just a little bit more of a balanced approach right here, waiting, in fact, for those lagged effects of what the fed has done to show up and respond accordingly >> well, the thing, mike, that got all the headlines yesterday was his reference to, you know, we're going to back it off to 50 in december. but what he also said a big question, is how much further did he have to go. the markets priced for another 50 basis points after this one i think it's going to be a little bit higher than that. then he also said that, okay, it's not like we're going to start easing right away. we've got to keep rates restricted, in restrictive territory until we're sure inflation comes down right now the economy is doing really well, but how is it going to be six months from now with rates even higher and probably on hold for some time.

that's the big question and that's where we still are a little bit skeptical. >> i got ya. and katarina, in terms of how the market is trying to process all of these things, you've seen the rally, at least some suggestion that the seasonal forces continue to be very strong as for as tail winds and maybe the markets priced in, some muted for earnings next year where do you think the problemn't sits? >> we'll take any kind of rally. it's most likely to continue throughout the year end, and i agree with jay we most likely are going to see another rate hike in december, maybe one in january it's going to be defined by two stories. we don't know yet what kind of recession it's going to be and whether we're going to get one two is earnings revisions, and some of those revisions might

take investors by surprise and result in another significant downside before we can comfortably pull the end of this bear market. but on the other side f they're going to reflect the actual state of the market, which is very healthy for us and healthy for the economy, it will allow us to move on to the next cycle. so now investorses should know that and expect it and be prepared to still stay defensive and stay with sectors like health care, financials, and industrials. focus on dividend paying stocks and finding some safe haven in bonds. it's good we can finally generate real yields on the bond side especially if we stay short term, you know, with high-quality fixed income. it's also a great opportunity to increase the overall quality of the portfolios by finding some strategic buying opportunities we have to be very tactical. it's definitely a stock picker's market there might be volatility and additional pain before things get significantly better in

2023. >> so defense and quality seem like -- continue to be your bet. they did help out this year f that's the way you're positioned jay, just in terms of placing the odds on when we might get a recession, what the character of that recession might be, where are we tomorrow and does is that put us on a broader path to recession or not >> tomorrow we're looking at 190,000. we're a little bit below consensus, the con senn says more or less around 200,000. put that in perspective in october, we created 261,000 jobs we are slowing down right now. i wouldn't expect a recession here to ma materialize until late first quarter, second quarter, somewhere around there, and i would expect any downturn we're looking at would tend to be a little more modest. if you look at the health and balance sheets, it's all pretty good it's not 2006 ahead of the

financial crisis knock on wood. like katarina said earlier, we hope this is a modest recession. again, it's becthe understood lg fundamentals of the economy continue to remain pretty strong. >> katarina, bond yields have come in quite a bit. clearly invest rs have taken advantage of some degree of safe availability out there you see vool you in higher grade bonds at these levels. >> absolutely. if you think about it, we've been waiting for quite some time, especially the pain we felt earlier this year, both stocks and bonds were found at the same time. who's unusual about this environmental is we finally can find some real yields and finally can really focus like you talked earlier about the performance of the 60/40 asset allegation and the biggest par is realizing yields on the bond side now this is changing, especially as we focus on a true promote

asset allocation, we can lock in some of the higher rates and impro improve the quality not only on the stock side but the bond side of our portfolios. this is a real chance to tactfully position the portfolios for recovery that might not be coming tomorrow there might be volatility. but it also presents the opportunity. we definitely see this as a forward looking time we should take ta look at the portfolio and take a look at the buying opportunities on the stock side and the bond side. >> a bit of a cushion available, i guess, in bonds that wasn't available a year ago at least. thanks to you both, katarina and jay. i appreciate it. all right, well, kroger giving up a pop among its megna deal with albertson eechls up next we'll talk with rodney

mcmullen before the senate you're watching "closing bell" on cnbc. the pursuit is on. the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. with deep expertise to outthink across multiple asset classes, actively managing investments in the world's public and private markets. outscale, with the resources to serve 1,500 clients in 52 countries. and outlast, with long-term conviction that looks beyond today's volatility. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

folks, it looks like we're gonna have to land this big old bird earlier than expected because it's the xfinity black friday sale. get the fastest mobile service with xfinity mobile. yeah, we'll be cruising in to get the best price for 2 lines of unlimited for just $30 each per month. oh my! plus, for a limited time, get 500 dollars off an eligible 5g phone. even you in 22c. flight attendants, prepare for big savings. drop everything and get to the xfinity black friday sale. click, call or visit a store today.

kroger shares in the red today, down off 1% despite beating earnings expectations, this coming after krogers and albertsons faced tough questioning from senators amy klobuchar and mike lee kroger's ceo rodney mcmullen joins us now on a first cnbc interview. great to see you.

>> great to see you, michael. >> first of the quarter, certainly we'll get to talk about the albertsons deal as well you did beat in terms of fop and bottom line performance and raise guideness coming at a time, i know you mentioned on the call, that consumers seem they're a little more careful, value focused. how are those things fitting together are you seeing a little more con cautious yet consumer-raising guidance. >> when you look at the fundamental approach to the customer as supposed to our brands and fresh products all those things together with a great value, it's really connecting with our customers well, and we would expect it to continue to connect well, and we're trying to make sure we do everything we can to minimize the impact of inflation, so it's really all of those pieces working together. >> and i think -- i know you said private labels may be a bigger part of the mix, so that would make sense we're seeing, you know, competitors of yours like costco

sort of decelerating top line growth and the shares getting hit. walmart's in their results said they're going to be pretty promotional in the grocery area. i guess the bigger question is the tide turning for the grocery business to a degree in terms of the ability to push pricing through and really to meet the sort of sales targets that we got used to in the last couple of years >> yeah. if you look at the fresh departments, inflation is starting to stabilize, and the center store, there's still more inflation there. our go-to market strategy is, you know, price is obviously one element of that, be it promotional and targeted offers directly to each individual households, and one of the things that's special about us is our very strong strength in our fresh departments, especially produce and meat and seafood and our deli/bakery. in those areas we're really continuing focus on, continuing

get better and all of that is tied together with the friendliness of our associates, and we're really focused on supporting our communities we operate in with our zero hunger, zero waste. >> there was some commentary among the analysts the online growth rate is lagging a bit is there any change in terms of the adoption of that e-commerce mode >> if you look at this quarter, our e-commerce business was right above 10%. that's two quarters in a row where we've been up nicely that's being driven by our delivery business using third-party delivery services and our own delivery service through our shedd. we feel really good about the momentum there the other thing that's really fascinating is a customer that shops with us online, they also physically come into the store as well. so it's really connecting that overall household experience that's so important. and then customers that formerly

shopped online that stopped, what we're finding is we're still retaining all of that business there, physically coming into the store as well again. and we think it's incredibly important to support the customer, we call it seamless -- in in way they want to engage with us. >> got it. i do want to get to the albertson deal from the very beginning you knew it was going to be a long process in terms of getting regulatory approval, maybe a couple of years. you've had to build in the fact that you may have to shed some store locations. there were some questions that were critical in terms of what's going to happen in terms of consumer pricing and workers compensation how are you feeling right now? >> we had incredible workers advising us throughout the process and we've looked at it store by store obviously we're actively engaged with the ftc and cooperating

we've been appreciative of being able to come and share or story. we know day one after we merge, we'll be able to lower prices for customers, we've committed to a billion dollar investment in continuing improving wages and supporting customers from the experience standpoint. on the pricing, about a half a billion dollars. those were things we were appreciative of being asked to come and being able to share or story, which we think is an incredible compelling story for our associates, customers, and communities. >> and this is the case with a lot of so-called horizontal mergers. on the one hand investors have had an opportunity to own albertsons as well as kroger if you make a deal, you have to tell them it's going to be more than the sum of those two parts. it's going to be better than the

independence of those two companies. how does that jive with it's going to be better for consumers and other stakeholders if you're not taking the slal you from one to get to another? >> any merger we've done, we've been able to identify things we did better than the merch company. our senior business came out of that if you look at merging with fred meyer, our marketplace stores, we would expect once we're able to sit down and get into the details, some of those things will happen with albertsons as well if you look at it from a supply chain standpoint, we know we'll be able to leverage the company's two warehouses and drive less miles all of those things together will create savings, and those sachbings is what allows us to be able to invest in pricing and our associates we've had so much experience i know albertsons had the same experience with their n mergers.

we just know we'll be able to do the same again. >> you talked just a minute ago on the commit management of the price side of thing and improving customer experience. is there any sense that those would be formal commitments? in other words as part of the approval to get the deal done, you would actually have these enfornls commitments i know that was one of the lines of questioning from senator mike lee yesterday. >> it's a great question legally e oom not an attorney, so i don't know from a legal standpoint professionally when we talk about a commitment publicly, we feel that that's a responsibility and obligation. so i realize technically there's a difference, but i can tell you the way our whole team looks at our commitment when we make a commitment publicly, we really view that as the same. >> all right rodney, fair enough. appreciate your time today thanks very much. >> thank you thanks for the invite.

>> you got it frrk kroger. let's get a check on the markets right now. the dow down about 210 almost half of that is due to the key klein in salesforce, monetarily negative at this point. the nasdaq popped into the green. russell 2000, marginally low coming up the head of nail association of manufacturers and the involvement concerning the rail strike and more on the c street and sales force is number two on the tickers a along with the 10-year yield, tlaes, costco arc stnld dow jones industrial average. we'll be right back.

we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why? if you have this... and you get this... you could end up with this... unexpected out-of-pocket costs. so if you're on medicare, or soon to be, consider this. an aarp medicare supplement insurance plan from unitedhealthcare.

medicare alone doesn't pay for everything. and what it doesn't pay for, like deductibles and copays, could add up to thousands of dollars. medicare supplement plans help by paying some of what medicare doesn't... and making your out-of-pocket costs a lot more predictable. call unitedhealthcare now and ask for your free decision guide. medicare supplement plans also let you see any doctor. any specialist. anywhere in the u.s. who accepts medicare patients. take charge of your health care today. consider adding this. call unitedhealthcare today about an aarp medicare supplement plan. go. go air that runs factory. go sensors and software. go find leaks. go fix-em. emerson technology detects compressed air leaks to save manufacturers, like colgate, over 20% in energy costs. go brush your teeth. go boldly. emerson.

check out today's top mover, okta shares in the identity cloud management company are sky high

after unexpectedly breaking even raising revenue. up 25% today but even with today's huge gains, stocks still down roughly 70% this year, quite a bit like a lot of other cloud software providers. up next, the ceo of the national association of manufacturers telling us if he supports congress stepping in to help avoid a major mail strike. and coming up, altimeter capital founder brad gerstner and spending so much money on the metaverse. what if you were a global energy company?

with operations in scotland, >> announcer: the bond report brought to you by pimco, a global leader in fixed income. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world.

♪ [christmas music] ♪ ♪ ♪ weathertech gift cards have the power to wow everyone on your holiday list. offering a variety of american made products. weathertech! nice! like floorliners... cargo liner... tablet holder... boot tray... cupfone... sink mat... pet feeding system... anti-fatigue comfortmat and more. order the weathertech gift card instantly for the perfect gift at weathertech.com

just breaking in the last hour, chuck schumer said they'll vote on a bill that would avoice a strike in the rail industry. it would need 60 votes the legislation has passed the house. joining us about this now is ceo jay timmons. good to see you. thanks for stopping by presumably you and your members would be pretty pleased if we avoid disruption in rail service. is this the way to do it through legislation? is that ideal or not >> the system was set up to do this we've seen this actually happen about 18 times in the last 100 years, congress has had to step in and it does look like we're

going to get a deal passed through the congress some of the amendments have already failed as we speak, the last amendment as failed. they're going to move onto a final vote we hope it's successful. >> you hope. do you think it will >> we do i don't think congress wants to see the economy shut down a few days before christmas. that's never a good message. i think we're going to see it. >> is it your sense that there was a lot of suspense around thn terms of before this point that your members and just manufacturers in general would have been making contingency plans? >> we've had to make contingency plans. we had to do it a couple of months ago or six months ago when there was a cooling off period and a delay sure, you have to make contingency plans. you think of not only manufacturers shipping goods but, for instance, you eastward heard the story of chlorine being shipped and cities having to make contingency plans for water supply

this has rippling effects throughout the entire economy. >> it sure would have. talking in general about the state of the economy and manufacturing and things like that, obviously a deceleration trying to fetch that kind of slowdown, manufacturing had kind of boom times and it's trenched a little bit maybe a decline in job openings as well. but what's the general state of play there as well we're coming off very high levels of activity, i guess, is the point. >> i don't think we're in boom time we've got on average 840,000 openings in jobs in manufacturing every month. we can't fill them our company is going gangbusters. of course, the fed activity, is that going to increase interest rates and the cost of borrowing? we've got concerns on the horizon with the legislative session right now with tax extenders. are we going to get that done because if we don't, that could harm investment. that could harm research and development and innovation but right now things are very

good in the sector, and i think it portends for a bright future for the economy. we can't mess it up, and we can't -- we've got to rely on congress to make sure they do their job and make sure they get some of these bills pass odd to make sure we stay strong. >> it's an interesting spot in another way where you have the cyclical effect of higher interest rates and goods demand was pulled forward and now it's coming off the boil. but now the initiatives for reshoring and doing more domestic production of a variety of different goobs happening at the same time. we have the c.h.i.p.s. act, right? >> right. >> do we have enough people to build it up? >> no. again, we have 840,000 jobs over every month on average in manufacturing. we need more people. they have a creators wanted campaign, trying to inspire that next generation, trying to bring more women into the work force, trying to bring veterans into the work force, working on second chance hiring

we're doing everything we can to attract folks into the sector. i think we're being successful in doing that. we have to make sure -- i want to go back to you talked about the investments being made that is possible because of the right policies we have in place. so the 2017 tax cuts t tax reforms were absolutely critical to our ability to invest and hire and raise wages we want to protect those gains, and then we want to continue the path forward. >> you mentioned the extenders so is there anything else though there's a perception out there you're going to have probably some version of split congress there's not necessarily an overarching administration kind of business agenda in play for this next couple of years, is there anything in terms of policy that you feel like is going to be a major swing factor >> well, i think there could be, mike i'll say this. politicians and elected officials on both sides of the aisle all support manufacturing, at least rhetorically.

they all want manufacturing to succeed. they understand how important it is to a strong economy their actions don't always match up, but we try to make sure they're doing the right thing. we were pleased not only for the tax cuts in 2018, but the infrastructure investment. i think one of the things we can get done over the course of the next few months is at least some movement on immigration reform, and i think that will help it won't solve the whole problem, but it will start to ease that burden that we have in trying to fill those open jobs in manufacturing. >> yeah. it's -- that's been stuck for sure. >> it's been stuck. >> we'll see if that can change. jay, thank you very much. >> thanks for having me. here's where we stand in the markets now with less than a half hour to go. you see the s&p 500 just about flat the dow off by 180, nasdaq about to flat line the the ross 28,000 in the red

up next, mark mahaney reveals the two stocks that should benefit the most in the current travel environment. >> and check out blackstone as we head to a break, seeing a big move low owner pretty heavy volume on news it's limiting withdrawals from a big real estate investment trust following a wave of redemption request. that comes on the same day blackstone sold its stakes in mgm grand and mandalay bay i see the shares down about 7% so far "closing bell. we'll be right back.

as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com what if we wanted to electrify all of this... 100% carbon free... is it possible? ♪♪ aes has been leading energy transitions for decades... and is partnering with the worlds leading companies to decarbonize industries... cities, and nations.

even the internet. is it possible? can we reliably power the things we love and green the planet at the same time? yes... aes. travel the demand for leisure travel

remains there. just the general findings there, there's a sense consumers got a lot of the catch-up travel out of the way in 2022 and maybe the street's bracing for a bit of a letdown next year, but what did you actually find? >> well, i'm sorry the street is absolutely bracing for a letdown in travel demand it's been so robust. it's the only part of consumer discretionary that was truly pent up. that's why you had the summer of travel up this last summer it's going to create rough issues we're waiting for the shoe to drop it hasn't dropped yet. it could happen next year. the reason i like these travel businesses going into next year, unlike most of the -- a lot of the digital companies that benefitted so much from covid and now find they need to cut costs, travel companies cut costs way early on, so they already go sbieng this softening

environmental with lean and mean cost structure, so i do appreciate that about their business models. then we can pair back the results a little bit, mike we found good resultings for airbnb and booking those are two of our top picks. >> i'm interested in booking it has been big. what accounts for that and why do you think that's likely to continue >> they've got growth initiatives. they've been as careful with their cost structure as expedia has been it's a management team that's been in production for more than two decades. they executed through 911, the great financial crisis, they executed through the early days of the covid crisis. this is a battles team i give them a lot of props i think that's it. you know, this is the largest player in locking accommodations globally, and they're still the fastest growing. so you get scale and you get growth they also have new growth

initiatives. they're rolling flights, a flights package payments, and they're doing a lot more manufacturing than they were in the past they can arguably grow faster, post global, gloeft normalization than they were in 2019 that's a good story to put together, and they're very shareholder-friendly they reduced their flow rate unleak some other internet companies that create a lot of cash flow, unlike others, they return it to shareholders. it's a good play. >> certainly the company stretches back to packets beyond the last boom and bust, so they kind of have been through it all. i do wonder about airbnb because you said so many travel companies were not necessarily big pandemic ben fisheries, didn't extrapolate the demand there for years to come. is that something that airbnb might have found itself with >> no. i think airbnb fell in that same category mike. at the very beginning of the covid crisis, we had dramatic

risks, dramatic forces at booking and expedia. they had to do it. they went negative they had negative bookings the cancellations overwhelmed any new bookings that were occurring. i never have seen that in the history of travel companies, but that's what it was back in the june quarters and the march quarters back in 2020. they took out costs and probably, frankly, for a name like airbnb that had a lot of private capital, i think they were run kind of inefficiently they needed that cost i inefficiency em posed on them and they came out with a better business model and stronger demand that's one of the things that came through in our survey we've seen a structural increase in terms of vacation rental, accommodations, post covid and precovid airbnb has been the single most beneficiary of that. as a pure growth investor, i think airbnb has a lot to offer. we like the business and a heck

of the a lot of good innovation product out of that company as well. >> it seems like the market is implying that some of the leverage is returning to hotels as opposed to airbnb and other such sites in other words, not as many extended stays it seems like the way the hotel stocks have held up better, that that's the takeaway is that wrong >> i think that is wrong for -- the reason is that the dirty secret behind online travel is the supply has been dramatically fragmented. it may not feel that way to the u.s. traveler. the u.s. chain hotels are a small percentage of bookings you go to the coast, there's one random example you're going to find a lot of mom and pop boutique hotels and that's what travelers like in most parts of the world. the more fragmented the supply base t more fragmented the lodging options. if you throw in vacation rentals and acome dagss, you by a factor

of ten increased the total amount of lodging supplies it's a great supply environment those areas like booking, expedia, and airbnb, and i don't think the large chain hotels, i think they become smaller and smaller for those otas and airbnb. >> it's like you knew i stayed in an airbnb off the amalfi coast. i appreciate it. thanks very much. >> thanks, mike. don't miss mark tomorrow on the final day of pro week. it's all interactive, and he'll be taking your questions go. to cnbc.com/protalks. up next, bespoke's paul hickey, and sales force slides and a big pair of retailers selling off when we take you inside the "market zone.

(woman 1) i just switched to verizon business unlimited. it's just right for my little business. unlimited premium data. unlimited hotspot data. (woman 2) you know it's from the most reliable 5g network in america? (vo) when it comes to your business, not all bars are created equal. so switch to verizon business unlimited today. we all have a purpose in life - a “why.” no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why?

breaking news on the senate rail strike vote we have the news. >> they have the votes to avert the crippling shutdown of the rails by forcing workers to accept their nesh gauche yatet contract the current vote tally is 71 in faber 1rks 2 against it only needs 60 votes to pass, and remember the house already cleared this measure so once it passes the senate, it would go on to the president's desk in fact, it was president biden himself who had called on congress to intervene this week after several unions voted against the contract they were upset about the lack of paid sick time. but that dispute could have halted the transport of goods across the country now it appears we're on track to

avert disaster with once again the senate having the votes to pass this bill, 71 in favor, now 13 against after that, it would go to the president's desk mike >> ylan, thanks so much. not too many 70-plus votes in the senate lately. so that one looks like it's there. let's get to the "market zone." paul hickey has the breakdown and craig collins on salesforce. markets holding onto yesterday's rally above and below the flat line in all of the major indexes of the s&p almost flat at the moment. paul, we've been in this tricky spot at the moment where you have this pretty strong rally off an october low that's a pretty common way for bear markets to end. on the other hand, the start of the market looks a lot like another bear market rally. so how do you sift through the evidence to figure out which one this is?

>> yeah, so good afternoon, mike like you've been highlighting a lot over the past couple of months, the market has been trying to, you know, stabilize, doing a whole lot of nothing actually if you look at it over the last six months, but what we've seen, ever since mid-october when the market made new lows, what was encouraging to us is the fact that the list of new individual stock lows was shrinking compared to what we saw in june, and throughout that period, it's continued to shrink we've routinely seen more highs than new lows. internal and the fact that the credit spreads didn't flow out but were pretty were contained wu an encouraging signal for us there. you saw the market at pretty overbought levels that led to selloffs every time this year. this week we've seen the market to continue to rally that's an encouraging sign for us as well so those internals are

diametrically opposed to weak economic data, and every day it seems we see a new indicate their a recession is either imminent or we're in one but when we're forced to choose between those two, we always will side with the message of the market, and that's been more positive right now. >> what do you say to those, paul, who say that the message of the bond market is that we ought to basically vacate expectations with the fed tightening into a slowdown, et cetera >> so i think the fed is basically seems to be looking at things on a tape delay these days because they were the last to see inflation coming through, and as inflation is showing signs of easing, we continue to see the fed talk hawkish there's every indication we see on a day-by-day basis the inflation coming in. when we look at the economic data and bond market interest rates coming in, you know, i'm

as confused as anybody else as it doesn't look good, but whenever you see this situation where things don't look good but the market is telling you a different message, the market usually ends up being right. >> yeah. or at least it gets there before the consensus does usually anyway let's get to the salesforce. that stock is tumbling on pace for the worst day of the year after co-ceo brent taylor said he would step down leaving marc ben benioff. >> you can't keep a wild tying never the cage i've learned that. you do your best you bring up great talent. and if they need to leave, they need to leave. >> the company also beating earnings estimates, although bookings were light and guidance mixed. frank holland joins us

how much of today's stock performance relates to taylor's departure and a result in guidance >> many believe his departure is the reason for the price action. that includes wedbush's dan ives they put a price target out of 135. that's a 35% rice from where it opened today but the company's miss on a current obligation, that's a metric and proxy for demand. that did raise the eyebrows. the company guided for a 7% increase in crpo that would be well below the kind of increase we've seen in previous quarters and also be below estimates. the question is demand slowing down or are deals taking longer to close as marc benioff has disclosed. he mentioned taylor had to be let out like a tiger in a cage,

needing to be let out. there's an elephant in the room. there's the impact of the dollar rising but the strength of dollar has weakened significantly since salesforce yesterday it's fallen 5% since then. a lot less pressure when it comes to that. again, the real question, is demand lessening, or is it taking longer for deals to close. today the question is about brent taylor, but there are long-term things that need to be looked at. >> or things are taking longer to close because demand is weaker we'll see how that all shakes out, frank thanks so much. big moves, meantime n the retail space costco and dollar general selling off. cost kohl dropping off dollar general missing profit estimates and cutting its full year's earning outfits as it struggles with warehouse logistics. meanwhile pvh and five below increasing and farfetch

plunging, a disappointing forecast for next year melissa repko joins us what clues there with costco and dollar general giving the state of the retailer right now? >> retailers are a big seller, but it's getting harder to sell the other stuff. dollar general saw more store visits and more sales, but a lot of those sales were coming from things like food food is not as profitable as selling home goods or apparel or other categories costco said it was seeing slower sales and there was a weakness in electronics and jewelry it sends up a worry balance for investors especially going into the all-important holiday season. >> and the warning bells are on the loud side. and, paum, you know, consumer scycscyclicals have not been th resource we've seen in the last few months, but have hung in

there. where does it sill in terms of the moment for those types of stocks to do bet ter or worse maybe it can only go one way from here. >> take a name like costco their sales were the lowest since april of 2020. the days of the high single digits to low double digits sales growth for that company, i think, are behind it you know, we're back to the range of the pre-covid levels, and those pre-covid levels were in single-digit range. if that's the case and you draw a steady trend of the stock prior to covid, you know, you would have the stock more -- still some more moderate downside in store for the stock. i think some of these names are, you know, had this big glow from the post-covid environment you know, they have some getting back to earth in store for them, you know, but, you know, some of these beaten out down names may,

you know -- they didn't quite recover. you can look at -- i think it's a stock by stock-basis there, but for a name like costco, i think the days of that real big strength very r behind it. >> it is kind of remarkable the plateau the stock has been at, well aboev precovid levels and kind of a pricey stock as well historically it's a good day for gold, up 3%. today's gains come on the back of a strong november as well gold now trading at its highest level in nearly four months. paul, is it striectly about the dollar we've gotten real yields come in off the recent heise and then you've seen digital gold kind of implode with the crypto meltdown. >> digital gold. enwho thought digital gold was going to be the city's pavement. they're going back into the real thing now.

i think long-term, bitcoin has shown -- you know, held up a lot better than some of these other tokens, so i think that's somewhat positive for bitcoin. look at gold you were touching on it. gold and the dollar, the dollar beat gold bottom and ever since then you've moved in the opposite direction for the past 20 years, they've been correlated. if you think the fed is going to start taking a less hawkish tone and that europe is going to start doing a little better after underperforming, gold may be a positive place to have some investments here. >> and just quick on the overall market here as we get into december, i know you kind of crunched the numbers on what seasonally the market tends do on balance i've also seen some numbers on 5% nosh gains. ice mixed in terms of what the forward sporms in the short

term, but how do the numbers look to you? >> two things. when you're down year to date heading into december or like you said when you have a strong nosh or strong fourth quarter darkt it's historically not been as strong as the overall what people don't realize about december, it's typically a back end loaded month on average the s&p is flat heading into midmont it's all at the end of the month when you see the majority of the days of the month. >> that's something that maybe you have to keep in mind it's not just a pure, you know, meltup through end of the year paul, great to talk to you, appreciate it. let's take a look at how the market's finishing up. the s&p 500 still pretty much hugging the flat line. the dow down 195 unh as well as salesforce are weak right there advancing and declining volume lm exactly've lynn matched a slight advantage to following volume, looking like it's down

half a per sejt. the equalweighted etf is doing better than the larger stocks, and the volatility index is still struggling it's under 20, as a matter of fact it's going to be at first close under 20 19 or so has been the low for the year, so we'll see if a common market, 15% off the lows is enough to keep volatility in check. that does it now for "closing bell." let's send it over to scott wapner with "overtime. thaenks very much. welcome to overtime. i'm scott wapner we're watching the cloud for key earnings for growth invests, pagerduty and zscaler. we begin with our "talk of the tape." the rally taking a pause after the big burst yesterday.