going down across the board. >> falling bond yields are good until they're not. >> yes >> the s&p getting above the 200 day moving average and be in an up trend seemingly for a long time >> it's at least threatening to break the down trend bad part is the meme stocks. ""fast money"" is now. right now on "fast" the massive move in yields the 30-year dropping over 20 basis points just today falling more than 3/4 of a percent similar drops in the 10-year what's this mean for the fixed market washington weighs into the collapse of ftx. the head of the cftc said we need to act fast later, royal surge for netflix the stock jumping nearly 4%. one of our traders says this is one good looking chart

i'm melissa lee. we're live full house on the desk tim is heseymour, karen finer mn rates are down a whopping 80 dips from their highs of late october. the declines coming as the markets continue to digest jerome powell's dovish comments. is the magnitude justified what is this really telling us, tim? >> it's telling us that the economy is probably already pricing in a significant downshift and that at some point bond yields have to come lower looking at the fed futures curve, which folks you can do at home, you can bring them up and see that the terminal rate for where people are expecting the fed to max out was going to be out in july, maybe early august but around 505 just three or four days ago. that's come all the way into may. when you look at where the curve has gone, you can see there's 40

basis points of fed easing as you get from the middle part of may to december. the market is imputing that the fed is pushing too hard. right now equities have the sweet spot of lower yields meaning equities move higher since the moment that the 10-year peaked you have the semis outperforming the s&p by 1 14%. you can see where the megacap trade has picked up. >> at what point do stocks have to start pricing in what the treasury market is pricing in, that is another leg lower for the economy? >> yeah. i'm surprised that -- if the bond market is telling you recession and lower growth, how could that not translate into lower earnings and even if we do see multiples come up a little bit -- >> because the bond market is always smarter >> yes >> revisions, you haven't had them yet we know they're coming >> right i see it as a big disconnect i don't understand it really to be honest. you know, what's happening in the front of the curve, it's

sort of a crazy shape. i don't even know what to call it to me it's a big disconnect. i feel like i want to take some money off the table. it's been a very nice bounce, very nice. >> yeah. >> yeah. >> who needs a year-end bounce. >> we had a year-end bounce. that's what every strategist -- that's what the consensus has shifted to year-end rally, face ripping, strong, whatever descriptor you want to use. have we seen that already? >> i definitely am hopeful but i think all these things we're talking about is why valuations are so important right now certain sectors of the economy are still very expensive people are jumping into the tech companies and there is a poll that says we expect there to be a year-end rally some things are priced a lot higher so i think you want to make sure you're still going to the things that are doing well if a recession happens or the valuations justify you getting

in it's not just a broad market and not your big tech firms. that's something you want to reiterate. >> your thoughts >> the year-end rally, the markets are priced in like the inflation story. it's been a little less hawkish. he's come out and said, okay, well, the path forward is a bit more uncertain that's certainly more dovish than most certainly restrictive, but i still think what the bond market is pricing in has been discounted greatly bonawyn, what do you think will happen if we're at 3% on the 10-year. the path to getting there is that it is going to be contraction, it is going to be recessionary for those reasons i think the equity market has kind of gotten in front of itself as you've seen from strategist after strategist after strategist, they're looking for the next three to six months to be quite a bit rockier in that regard >> the couple of things that are

really equity positive, look at the dollar, since powell spoke before that and even where we were by midday, we've closed with a 104 handle for the first time since june. since june so i'm not saying the dollar is going back to 90 but i do think we've seen a case where peak dollar is very equity positive karen talked about the front end of the yield curve there were some things that are weird. i think that's fair. you actually have seen curves steepening and without getting too deep in the weeds, the short end be has been rallying more than the long end. it means it's been a little bit more aggressive. that to me is telling you lower implied interest rates for equities which are good, which are better and anyone that's doing an equity valuation exercise, you hire -- a higher equity rate is a lower stock price. >> at the same time, i don't know if you ever did this when

you were trying to weigh a decision two columns, pros and cons pros exactly what tim said the cons is that the yield curve is telling you that there's a massive lowering in the economy. how do they weigh out? >> the exercise with my husband, yes, no. >> how did he come out >> well, we're married for a long time. you know, everybody makes mistakes, what can you do. >> whoa. >> anyway -- >> looking from the bottom, the s&p has rallied over 14% that is enormous enormous so to me it feels like on the con column, maybe this rally it seems to be long in the tooth. i feel like i don't want to chase things here for sure if anything, i'm inclined to sell up cycle. >> when bad data is bad. today's ism, let's be clear, we're not a manufacturing column it was sub 50.

where the manufacturing weakness is coming. so another check for the bad column i know her husband lawrence, he belongs in the good column >> but you're looking at the data too and there's sdefinitely some positives >> inflation started to am could down it took four months to erase a long time of inflation that's something you want to keep in mind this can come up carefully you want to be strategic where you're investing money inflation coming down is great consumers are on good footing. we have the mid terms behind us and that's a good thing with the stock market i am optimistic. a lot of that is already priced in i still think there's a lot of positives moving forward. >> there's definitely positives to consumer inflation. tim mentioned, we're not a manufacturing economy and we're not a good purchasing economy. that dynamic was a two-year period that is priced in

treasury yields continues to yield its ugly led i would pump the brakes to saying it has abated to the point that the fed is likely to pivot or pause i understand we're going to move at a much slower pace. powell has all but told us that. it doesn't mean the turmoil rate will remain at that level. >> the question is how long are we going to be at the terminal rate there's an assumption the terminal rate is going to then lead up to a pivot, almost immediate pivot and i don't know if the markets have really priced in the idea that whatever that rate may be, we could be at it for months. >> it feels like we -- you know, we're so used to it, the market -- the fed owes us really cheap rates. >> right. >> they don't. >> the right thing is to go back to zero. >> we want zero! if we go back historically at all a little bit, you see that we're really in the land of low rates. i agree. it wouldn't be shocking to see

us sit there for a while. stocks may be up so far in q4 but our next guest says that could be a warning sign for next year tony dwyer is with us. great to see you you've been listening in to our conversation and in the context of your call for the last quarter of the year was for the s&p to go up 8 and 12% we've gone through that. we've discussed that on the desk how are you viewing the rest of the year going into 2023 >> so you're up now 13% for the quarter. you've never had the s&p 500 down more than 10% for the first three quarters and then had the fourth quarter up more than 12%, which means you should give back some of the gain that we've got. i really -- but i think you've got to be careful because you don't want to get too negative the range at the year end -- it was a year end call not during the quarter call year end we should be up somewhere 8 to 12% we're up more than that. it doesn't mean you go out and

sell everything. i'm expecting a recession next year i'm pretty convicted on it which means you go back down for the year iend, we've gone down karen hit it. >> what you see is the bond markets pricing in recession what do we need to see of the equity markets for you to believe we are starting to do that as well there does seem to be a disconnect >> really breadth comes in and you go back and retest the lows. it would be historically unique and there are three things we're looking at not just the yield curves. any time the percentage of yield curves that are inverted gets above 55%. so you don't use the two ten, three-month -- people pick whatever one they want for the day. let's use them all any time you've had more than 55% of them inverted you've gone into recession we have 82% as of this week. 82% were inverted this week. the leading economic indicators,

you've been in or going into recession. the philly fed diffusion index, that's an interesting indicator, it looks at the labor metrics for each state in the philly fed measures it versus a month ago when it's hit this negative a level we've gone into recession. you know me by now mel i change my opinion 50 times a day every time there's a tick. i have to go by the data the data is clear it would be historically unique with these indicators not to go into recession and it would be historically unique for th market to not bottom during the recession. in other words, you haven't made the low yet. >> td, it's tim. there's a bull market somewhere always, right? there's parts of what's going on both in the economy and in terms of asset allocation that should work now i like gold. i like emerging. delayed reopening trades some of the airlines, casinos,

they have some fundamentals behind them. what do you do in this environment when we've had a 17% move off the cpi. >> i think you have to start getting defensive when you're at the 12% level. i've been pretty neutral and pretty tactical. we had the fall fall now we've had the year-end rally. i think you start to get defensive the more above plus 12% you get and as you exit the year we're in the temporary sweet spot the fundamental excuse for this oversold rally is that the fed's initial moves have lowered inflation. banawyn had this right the drop in goods inflation is allowed -- it's really coming down because we've transitioned from buying stuff, it's christmas every day at the dw dwyers with amazon the presents show up and you open them every day. from buying stuff when we're in a pandemic to doing stuff.

that creates a problem the lower inflation on goods -- goods prices are coming down, used car prices, ear things, the problem as banawyn said before you get a lift in the services jerome powell said yesterday specifically, he doesn't expect housing related or non-housing related services to start dropping until next year you're in the temporary sweet spot where you've slowed it enough to keep the goods side down so you're off peak inflation but the services will keep it above where they want it that creates the challenge for the fed and the risk into the first quarter. >> tony, great to see you. >> great to see you. happy holidays >> tony dwyer. the bonawyn, i'm going to ask you this do you think cash is bad >> i don't whatever way you're measuring inflation. the fact you're seeing inflation

and treasury is coming in, the opportunity is lower than it was. then when you kind of factor in the risks that we're seeing in the market, it makes it at least maybe 10, 15 as much as 20%. i think that's a reasonable holding. >> are your clients, courtney, gravitating towards cash >> they have been. yeah not to my recommendation necessarily. i've been getting that all year. people are getting nervous seeing that investor sentiment as a long-term investor, that's not the place to be. you are finally getting investments on treasuries, bonds and i have people coming out of the woodwork, i have a lot more cash than i realized they're not ready to invest. there is a lot of cash on the sidelines that needs to make its way in through individual investors and institutions. >> that sounds bullish cash on the sidelines sounds people have been scared and sentiment's better than it was but they're still above cash levels if you look at the bank of america's fund manager survey,

cash levels are still in crisis mode and i think this is a case where this is why if you look at this chart on the s&p and everybody knows we're traiting great considering a 3% move, we're above that 200 day, carter says it's all time, you can draw lines you want if you draw from the down trend, you're kind of through that down trend just a little bit. coming up, shares of ulta getting all gussied up in the after-hours. what's sending the stock higher. semisnag we'll debate that when "fast money" is back in two. snag. we'll debate that when "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast money. we've got an earnings alert on ulta beauty. shares taking a dip lower. we are joined with more on that. the melissa, what happened here? >> reporter: ulta reported strong numbers across the board in categories from hair care to makeup dave kimball mentioned it is seeing consumer spending go up among all different income groups, which is a good thing for that company it also talked a little bit about early holiday sales and how it saw a lot of strong sales

over thanksgiving weekend going into cyber monday and it was genuinely bullish that people are seeing this category as an important category even if they pull back in other ways. they are still spending on beauty perhaps they see it as a necessity in their overall budget or a little affordable luxury. >> there wasn't anything in particular that stood out from you as to why it would have mochd from up strongly to a leg lower? >> reporter: well, i'm a little confused by that because i think one of the major take aways was actually that it did better on margins and it talked about being able to raise prices which is the opposite of what we heard from other retailers that have spoken about markdowns it seems to have pricing power in this environment but there was a note of caution from the cfo saying it is a very dynamic environment. they are watching the consumer patterns closely even though they're not seeing a trade down quite yet. >> melissa thanks

melissa repko on ulta. the karen, you've got your theory >> yeah. it was up a lot higher on the news headlines which appeared to be wrong as they came out on bloomberg. i don't know how that happened it looked like the guide was much stronger. it was a fantastic quarter they're doing everything right top line growing same store sales and great margin that's all good stuff. this stock is up $92 it's not expensive but it's not cheap. i have a decent sized position i like it. this would be one of the things i would sell up side calls. >> up side calls >> absolutely. >> i like ulta here.

i tend to think it is one of those companies that does well if we go into a recession. something like ulta it's morey session proof at least in that category it gets all of your consumers. it gets your lower income consumers and they have lower end products and higher end products they have a good loyalty program. they have 38 million members and they're getting into target stores which gets you to so many more customers it is something that is well positioned it's not cheap but i wouldn't call it expensive. i would still have something in here. >> i'm just curious, if you know the answer, what happens to algos who see this come out, headlines that are -- >> the stock goes up and then the stock goes down? >> yeah, right >> stump them? >> correct is a bad term, i guess. >> right >> if you see the word correct, maybe? >> right >> then they get a slap on the wrist. bad algos. i have no idea.

>> i get the position. the multi-year comps get really tough. that's not the way to think about the valuation, but i think where they have gone and fragrance and beauty, 2/3 of their sales almost it's been a time where there's been no fragrance and beauty especially on this desk. look at bonawyn. >> they're saying 12.5%. i don't have anything that's -- >> we're wearing a lot of makeup here >> you are >> boom. >> here's what's coming up next. >> announcer: the wait is finally over rollout of tesla's long-awaited semi truck set to kick off for everything else going on for elon musk, is this just another distraction or a real risk the details next. plus, the crypto crush continues as lawmakers probe the

ftx collapse the latest out of that hearing ahead. you're watching "fast money" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. tess will's semi truck reveal. it's getting delivered five years after originally announced. the truck was unveiled in 2017 set to be in production by 2019. it has been held up because of battery constraints. is this yet another distraction from elon musk once upon a time when the thing was first unveiled it was a very exciting thing the notion it would go after the

commercial truck segment but in the context of the stock today, in the context of what elon musk is doing today, is this a catalyst to the up side still? bonawyn, what do you think >> sure. it could be worse, it could be nikola add a little context there i think -- listen, i think the knock right now is is the valuation supporting and it certainly isn't if they don't continue to kind of find new frontiers for growth so through that lens i do still think it's a positive catalyst clearly they haven't been able to execute which is more why we have a down side price action that we do have but i do think if this is a real target adjustable market, then it's -- it is a possible catalyst, right? i wouldn't -- i wouldn't think foregoing it altogether would be a net-net positive. >> there are a lot of reasons also, pretty valid reasons as to why this thing might be delayed. we didn't include pandemic,

supply chain issues so there are other reasons why this -- not just tesla didn't deliver on this >> yeah. by the way, distractions for elon musk have always been good for the stock price. hasn't that always been the story. something shiny over here and let's completely avoid the reality of what's going on here? and i think in terms of the semi, it's an exciting concept look at the excitement around the ford f-150 version if you think about it also, the margin pressure on the model 3 think of tesla's high margin cars are the why and the ones that have been the bread winners if you think about margin for the company. my guess is that's a reason to be excited about the suv versus the mass market car which is having trouble being profitable. the most important driver for tesla stock right now is how much stock has gone through the market, how much has to go through elon himself and we're in an environment where tesla is being treated like an auto company. if you think about the people

that swear about tesla, tesla the stock, i think there are people that are under the most pressure here. >> treat it like an auto company in that people are disappointed in what? i don't understand not in terms of -- >> valuation >> i think that the pressure on the auto sector in terms of where you have the same pressures -- >> same pressure on -- well, the bad thing is that this stock is sitting in the cross hairs of the industry and high multiples. >> plus you have the enormous distraction of your ceo, your beloved ceo, you know, running twitter. why twitter only seems to get a half ceo is sort of amazing to me. >> poor twitter. >> funny. >> also, i think him being mired in twitter has the potential to alienate potential customers because he does seem to make political statements i do think that matters to customers. so there's that as well and then

you touched on the leaning -- is he leaning on the stock because he needs to support the capital -- well, the capital struks tur is set for now. >> right >> he might feel he wants to raise more cash. after the break, the ftx saga continues we heard from sam bankman-fried for the first time since the collapse now lawmakers are probing the crash. the headlines around that. stick around for streaming options. see how traders are getting on the jump in netflix. >> announcer: get your trades to go with the "fast money" podcast. catch us any time, anywhere. follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this. because you've got the next generation in global secure networking from comcast business. with fully integrated security solutions all in one place. so you're covered. on-premise and in the cloud. you can run things the way you want - your team, ours or a mix of both. with the nation's largest ip converged network.

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welcome back the dow dropping nearly 2 1/2 points it's a decline the stock seeing its worst day since january 5th.

general mills, bristol-myers, eli lilly. >> he pointed to gaps in that. there are big problems in the cracks the cftc needs statutory authority. the line of sight could have given regulators an early warning of the trouble inside ftx. >> if we don't fill the gap, there will be fraud and there will be customer losses in the future i am confident the cftc, sec, i am committing to you we will work together and figure out a path forward. >> now currently the cftc only has the ability to go after fraud and manipulation and while they can pursue bad actors, benham said it's better to prevent them from striking in

the first place. there is a bipartisan bill from the senate ag committee that would give the cftc the power it needs. that comes under fire as being unduly supported by ftx. >> this doesn't match any of the experience i've had with the legislative process. sam bankman-fried did give a lot of feedback as did many others from industry, from academia, from the policy community, from your shop and beyond and everyone's feedback was considered. >> worth pointing out that seven of the 22 members of the committee including senator booker who you just saw received campaign contributions from bankman-fried. they intend to give the money away or already have back over to you >> ylan, you know what's interesting about the donations. we all knew going into the mid-terms he was a major

political donor. now we're thinking were there any sort of motivations behind that when bankman-fried was interviewed by andrew, he said a lot of that was for pandemic prevention is there any way to trace what that money was used for or is it just so opaque that there is no way? >> yeah, some of it we can certainly see through government filings. there were direct campaign contributions to the members that we just showed you on screen there so 7 of the senate ag committee members but a lot of the money went into sort of super pacs that were used to put out advertising for different candidates and so that's the money that's a little bit harder to trace because it's not coordinated directly with candidates themselves but they can be based on issues. so he's gotten involved in some unlikely races, including in washington state, i believe, is one of the ones where he really focused in on that pandemic prevention angle so that's where some of the money went -- most of the money went, in fact.

he said in some other interviews that he gave equally to democrats and republicans but he gave the money to republicans through sort of dark pools that are much more difficult to trace. so, you know, all of this is part of what washington, what lawmakers are trying to sus out as they dig through the rubble of the collapse of ftx. >> ylan, thank you ylan mui we sat here yesterday on this disesk -- >> you did. >> with timothy. >> i did. >> i thought i would call special attention to your patience and attention during that whole entire hour because it was a very long interview but it was extraordinary to hear how all of this went on and it's amazing to think that the backdrop was that no regulators were -- >> involved. >> -- involved >> and there's a lot of different issues here and conceivably if ftx is an exchange on some level, there shouldn't have been issues of co-mingling. part of that dialogue from

washington and part where there will be an argument, are these securities or not? because even though, you know, they're not, if they were, you then have a whole trail of regulation that could be brought in here. and i agree that i think a lot of this does not happen if you have regulators around this. >> for more on the ftx collapse as well as today's hearing, former cftc chairman timothy massa joins us thank you for being here with us. >> thank you for having me it's good to be here. >> we could point fingers but what do you think is the root cause of the lack of oversight over this particular implosion >> well, actually, we can't really point fingers at regulators because at least our u.s. regulators don't have jurisdiction over ftx -- well, let me put it this way because crypto exchanges claim they are not trading securities, they have not registered as a

securities exchange and insofar as they claim they are trading commodities, no federal regulator has authority over the spot market. obviously the main ftx entity was abroad people have to realize exchanges in the u.s., i think, face a lot of the same issues because they do not follow the standards that we have in our securities and derivatives markets, except to the extent they decide to do some of that voluntarily, right? they claim to be regulated but they're really referring to licenses under state money service laws which date back to telegraph and are woefully inadequate people who want to buy and sell crypto, the risk is not just the

asset you're buying, it's the platform on which you're buying it. >> it is amazing, timothy, when you have a conversation about crypto and regulations and regulation securities in general that a lot of laws were drawn up decades ago in a totally different time from where we are operating right now. i was talking to the former ceo of the nasdaq, he thought it was very clear that crypto was securities and he cited a 1940s law. >> yeah. >> the howie act >> right >> the howie test. >> the howie test. it's just stunning to me that we're drawing on these things from decades ago to regulate or to try to find a regulatory framework for these new assets of the future. where do you stand on whether or not it's a security? if we said it's a security tomorrow, does that allow -- does that enable regulatory age agencies, the appropriate ones to come in and make the space safer for investors? >> here's the problem. you have to make that determination token by token you know, i tend to think a lot

of these are securities but the sec would have to prove that in court unless an exchange says, oh, yes, you're right, they are securities what we have are exchanges who basically say -- i shouldn't even call them exchanges, they're really trading venues. exchanges really mean things that are registered to comply with the law these trading venues say, well, you know, we don't think they're securities so we're not going to register we're not going to comply. it's not so much that the laws are, you know, out of date sure, they maybe need a little refinement in terms of disclosure obligations and a lot of things to deal with this new technology, but the basic problem is that we've been bogged down in this issue of is it a security, is it a commodity? the crypto trading venues have taken advantage of that and not registered and, therefore, we have a situation where they're

not abiding by these rules i mean, i wrote a paper about this four years ago outlining this problem before ftx was even created. we haven't changed it. we really need to fix it >> yeah. which regulatory agency, if you were asked by congress, which regulatory agency has the biggest deficit when it comes to the ability to regulate? >> you know, either one could do a good job this is what i said in my paper several years ago as long as they're given the resources to do it. the other thing we could do, i've written another paper with professor hall jackson in harvard where i suggested the sec and cftc should get together and create what we call a self-regulatory organization it's not self-regulatory in the sense things are left up to the industry, but basically you would use that to create some common standards you would say we want these trading venues to follow these standards regardless of whether it's a security, a commodity, or

something else and, you know, if you do that, we won't shut you down while we sort out this issue of what's a security or what's a commodity that could at least bring some standards to these platforms faster. >> until then and i don't know when that -- you know, we'll find some sort of resolution, but until then do you think customers are using these trading venues, as you say are their assets safe? >> hard to know. you know, we don't really know what the procedures are. look, people have to realize, gee, i'm on the blockchain you can always see what you have when you buy and sell on one of these exchanges, you're not even on the blockchain. you're just in a ledger account. you don't even know for sure that the exchange has enough crypto to -- you know, to satisfy all the customer liabilities. that's what we saw with ftx. now they're supposed to have it.

they're supposed to, you know, make sure they're protecting that, even under these modest, very, very modest and weak state laws, but, no, i would say there's no assurance of that ment and, again, if they -- if they were to fail, you're not protected. in our securities markets if your broker/dealer fails you're protected under a federal program. under the commodities markets if we have a failure, you're also protected by special provisions in the bankruptcy law. we don't have that for crypto. >> timothy, great to get your analysis. >> thank you. >> what we're seeing is a crisis of confidence across the board there's concerns there could be runs on banks with other coins, other stable coins because people are questioning whether or not those coins be were somehow lent out in some way somebody may have some kind of claim on them. do they really exist for them to be withdrawn karen, you have been an investor

in crypto. does this shake your confidence? >> well, it has to it has to. i think it also has to put off a lot of the -- sort of the big themes that crypto is based -- you know, had rallied on partially, that was institutional adoption, right? that's kind of out the window right now. and i think that -- i mean, this is -- it's lehmanesque. >> for this industry. >> for this industry i actually have continued to be sort of surprised that bitcoin itself is not lower given the cataclysm that has happened in this space and, i mean, i think there was thousands of coins that will never be anything, that were ridiculously something we saw dogecoin on the day before elon went on "saturday night live." i haven't looked at dogecoin lately i don't know where it is it's not a huge bet for me, but i am hanging out kind of see

what's happening. >> i think bitcoin is trading like a champ physical storage, cold storage and partly explained by the very strong retail hands that are not always strong hands. but i think you have a case where the institutional adoption of bitcoin is very late in the game if you think about who's holding it and you think about supply. there are some important technical levels that at least it's respected so far. >> crypto, inflation, interest rates? what's at the top of the investors minds? > 'll look at investopedia >>netflix, will this take the crown or is it dead to me? much more "fast money" in two. investors minds?

welcome back to "fast money. netflix, 1 money. netflix, 1% is the gain bring in mike in just a minute we wanted to bring out this chart. it was you, tim. >> timothy. >> nice looking? >> handsome chart. >> cutie boy chart go ahead >> thank you so i look at the netflix chart and clearly we've gotten through some key levels but it starts on that washout on april 20th when

you had the terrible numbers you had record buy-in. we said on that day, this is a story that's going to take some time so ultimately you hit a double bottom on may 10th, june 10th and it's bounced on an upward trend line and it's filled in the gap. around 320, 330 you run into morey sis tans, no question. this is a stock that has behaved, we've gotten the fundamental news around at least where they're going to have either the ad business, the ability to get after some folks that were dividing it. i think this is a great chart. >> we've got mike so let's check out what the action was. mike khouw, what did you see >> two times the average daily options in netflix it was the second busiest single stocks option tracks notionally. 320 strike calls we saw over 50,000 of those trading for about $3 buyers risking a little under 1%

of the stock price betting that the rally in the name can continue. >> courtney, do you like netflix? >> i'm a little more cautious on netflix. it's done well but it is still an expensive stock it trades at 33, 34 times earnings and it is a media company. it is in this phase where there's a lot slower growth than they have in the past. i don't know if you can justify having that high of a multiple i think it's great they have an ad supported tier. staying at this higher level, it doesn't come down, you are going to see this hitting customers. if they are going to stay on netflix, how is that going to affect them so much in the long run to justify such a higher valuation. we have exposure i'm not adding more to it now. >> mike khouw, thank you for more "options action" check out the full show tomorrow 5:30 p.m. eastern time. coming up, are iesrsnvto warming up to stocks you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading.

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at the results welcome back, caleb. always good to see you what did you see i thought that it sounded like people were getting a little bit more defensive looking into cds and cash >> they were they were the last time i was on your show talking about the survey they're still playing a little defense but that nice little november rally, less hawkish talk from the fed. that's bringing them in from the cold and you're seeing it in our sent imt s-- sentiment survey. our investors are worried about the market that's down 9% from the last time i was on the show in september. 26% are expecting a drop of 10% or more. that's down 18% from september and we have almost 20% expecting gains of 5% or more going forward. a little bit of warming and a little bit of buying, too, around the margins >> do you get the sense that maybe people think that this rally is long in the tooth or got pulled forward a little bit? what's sort of the positioning

here in the sense going to year end? >> i think they're cautious but i think they want to put money to work. it's been a rough year and i don't think a lot of individual investors did a lot of movement in their portfolio so they're looking for ways to make some of that money back they want to make some safer investments. they realize interest rates are going to keep rising facing recession. you have half of them making safer investments. 10% going out on a limb. we always have the outliers. you have half the folks expecting a recession next year. they're getting defensive to a degree they like the home cooking especially the large home tech stocks. >> did ftx hurt that >> we include it in our article. it's backed people way off of it for the folks that never touched it, they don't plan to the big issue, you just eluded to it in the last segment or two, is trust. they don't trust it or understand it and they don't want to go anywhere near it. a lot of people are holding on

and will continue to hold on there are holders forever but a lot of folks who are thinking about it have now backed way off of it according to our most recent survey. >> in terms of where people want to put their money, you mentioned the home cooking the apples, microsofts of the world? >> we asked them this round if they could buy one stock and hold it for the next ten years what would it be surprise, surprise, apple. made a fun word cloud. apple is in there, microsoft, amazon, tesla is in there. they are sticking to what got them here. a lot of folks have not rotated out. a lot of folks would love to hold apple for the next ten years. they think the next ten is going to be good as well. >> caleb silver. up next, final trades.

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final trade time tim? >> timothy is going to be selling upside calls in january. >> i think that's going to stick. courtney >> i like ulta here. uncertain economy and uncertain consumer >> bonawyn. >> housing. >> karen finerman? >> upside calls, i like netflix

but valuation is getting strong again. great interview. that whole level event was -- >> it was quite something. >> it was amazing. if you haven't seen it, check it out. thank you all for watching "fast money. we'll see you tomorrow at 5. for more "fast"anywhere. "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people people make friends. just trying to make a little money. my job not just to entertain but educate, teach call me, 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. when i first heard the idea that at some points in the business cycl