proof also that time is gone forever. good morning welcome to "street signs." these are your headlines attention turns stateside to today's payroll reports, expected to slowdown in new job crea creations. u.s. futures are muted ahead of the data remain on pace to close the week

in the green eu ministers edge closer to a deal to cap russian crude prices tentatively agreeing to $60 per barrel ceiling just days ahead of a defacto president hosting his first state dinner >> we want to build peace and sustainable peace means full respect of sovereignty and integrity of ukraine good morning, everybody. happy friday let's catch you up on how markets are faer faring. right after those manufacturing numbers came in showing a 2.5-year contraction the first contraction in 2 .5 years which

prompted risk appetite to turn lower. in aceh some negatives coming through. sentiment has turned south, trading down 3 percentage points overall we're weighted all eyes of course on non-payroll expected to show 200,000 jobs created and for the unemployment rate to hold steady but very big number in terms of the direction for the fed moving ahead and all eyes on that next fed meeting. 80% possibility of that 50 basis point hike in europe, the focus is on ecb, for the whole today we're sort of shifting negative in terms of the breakdown for european, this is the picture, ftse is down four-tenths of a

percentage point up at the top a bit of a bounce in some of the delivery shares, about 1 percentage point the only tiny bit of green is up a tenth of a percentage point. some trade numbers this morning showing the germany trade surplus increased more than expected just because of exports rapidly increasing but imports rapidly declining, that's why germany's trade surplus has hold up in terms of european market this is the picture for the week as whole, with the exception of the periphery, italy, spain, most of these indices are leaning toward the green for the week remember, a lot of that on the back of the bounce once people started speculating that china were going to start easing the

covid restrictions that gave a boost to the ftse in week in terms of sectors today, this is breakdown, real estate at the top, media up six-tenths of a percentage point lot of focus on basic resources but also oil and gas, there's some talk that we may get a final decision on this price cap on russian oil could be $60 we'll be discussing more of that later on in the show but very relevant for the oil complex they could cut production even more, keep a close eye on that as for u.s. futures this is the picture ahead it's kind of mix you can see s&p -- basically opening up around flat, mildly positive this after a negative session yesterday, as i

mentioned, on back of that manufacturing showing that first contraction in 2.5 years november's non-payroll report is expected the show 200,000 after jumping 261,000 in october, the continued strength of the labor market comes in the face of recession fears. the unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 3.7% the chief economist from morning consult joins me good morning to you, john, while anyone tends to be focused on the headline number today people are calling for job creation of 200,000 but i think the overall takeaway for the u.s. jobs market it's still holding up, still pretty resill ynt. >> the resilience is impressive i think when you look at the

longer term trend, clearly is a deceleration in the growth rate of u.s. jobs but that's come in the face of really a remarkable interest rate hikes and of course historic inflation so given those head winds that's impressive. >> layoffs in the tech sector we've heard from amazon, from meta, from twitter obviously cutting, what's the impact that's going to have on the overall u.s. employment situation right now. >> yeah, we remain optimistic right now those layoffs are going to remain concentrated if the tech sector comprising 2.5 u.s. workforce right now, do those layoffs in some ways spill over and start affecting other sectors? we're in a fortunate situation right now the demand for workers particularly high-tech, high-skilled workers is so

strong a lot of those workers are going to ultimately be absorbed by other companies. if tech is overhiring hass more pers persuasive that's when i get really worried. >> i don't know if you were listening to the powell speech every day, i'm sure you were, what he said about the labor market situation in the u.s., he talked about a shift in structural trends, he managed aging demographics reduced immigration, covid-related reasons for people dropping out of the workforce all of these reasons he gave for the labor market being so tight in the u.s., what do you think these structural reasons do to inflation in coming years? >> i think on net it will be driving upward trend in inflation, in large part because of that decreased immigration pairs with a switch in

preferences for people particularly in the u.s. preferring more things to be made at home a general concern around supply chain disruptions all of that will increase the cost a lot of goods there are of course longer run trends in the u.s. and western europe that have sort of driven interest rates down over time, and i think the question is to what extent do these near-term acute drivers of the economy fade and we sort of return to some sort of longer term outlook. >> john, over here in europe we spend a lot of time talking about the inflation situation being a function of a supply shock where in the u.s. it's very much a demand shock situation which is the the reason why the fed had been so aggressive with the rate hikes they wanted to cool demand how close do you think we are getting to the point they've

done enough to put a break on consumer demand. >> i think we're a long way off from interest rates starting to fall but we're clearly coming to a point where the rate of interest rate increases is going to slow, most likely you'll see the fed wait and pivot and basically hold, you know, their interest rates at a elevated rate for a longer period of time to see what happens, similar to the point you made earlier structural trends in the u.s. affects supply, the transmission mechanisms for monetary policy, a real open question how interest rate increases are going to affect the real economy, it's something that the fed has been pretty direct about, they're not particularly clear what that mechanism looks like >> what i thought was interesting out of the numbers

that came out of the thanksgiving period is that they're showing still a lot of resilience in consumer spending and actually transactions were up year over year, very strong cyber monday as well, what does that tell you about the strength of the u.s. consumer here? >> well, the strength of the u.s. consumer has been surprising i think again in the face of these inflation head winds what we see in a lot of our data in many ways the consumer essentially has stopped walking away from making purchases in the face of elevated inflation and some of their trading down behavior has started to slow as well so i think the consumer's essentially started to adjust this period of elevated inflation the question will be, how long will that last particularly if wages were to be disrupted in form of elevated layoffs going forward. >> final question, do you think the fed can actually succeed engineering a soft landing not

they're looking to engineer it, but can they come away with this rate cycle without putting the u.s. into a recession? >> my short answer on that is no that of course is the ultimate question right now, the reason i say no it goes back to the point i made earlier the transmission mechanism from monetary policy to the real economy is very unclear right now, on top of that, i think fed officials don't know how long it's reasonable for them to wait to expect to see the lag defects of interest rate increases from earlier this year, and that means they're going to be hyper focused on seeing inflation come down itself, when we see inflation come down to that 2% goal things will putting pretty dramatically into contractually. >> thank you so much for sharing

your thoughts, john. also coming up on street signs, bottoms up but volume's down, heineken predicts a slump in europe.

welcome back to the show heineken in amsterdam today will update investors on its evergreen program, strategy to shape the future of beer and beyond, the brewer expect will come in higher we're still in netherlands julianna let's talk about the beer sector so far on the show we spent at lot of time talking about energy-intensive sectors, one less appreciated fact when it comes to beer production its reliance on co 2, by-product of

fertilizer which has been impacted severely by the huge shock we've got to energy prices, so how is this all being factored into heineken, what they're expecting in terms of higher costs moving forward? >> good morning. i think that's an excellent link that you just drew from the energy crisis that we're seeing from europe here in the netherlands to what we're seeing in the consumer space. carbon dioxide is a key ingredient, one example of one of the inputs that's seen a massive rise in cost and impact on supply. fertilizer companies have had to curve their production and carbon dioxide is a by-product of that, one of the pressures facing heineken today. today is the second day of their capital markets, yesterday some fresh guidance for the market

reaffirming for this year and next the story here short term is all about costs and being able to push the bulk of those costs through to consumers in the form of higher prices heineken and other beermakers are facing this challenge of how much of those higher costs do they want to absorb and pass on to consumers, clearly it's balancing act because rising prices means they'll have some impact on demand, they also provided more color on what they expect next year as you mentioned in the readout they're looking at declining volume in europe where of course the energy crisis is being felt most acutely and on that front they're looking at high teens input cost inflation and higher energy costs, now longer term we also got an update on their evergreen multiyear strategy this is all about finding more

balanced growth, a balance between pricing and volume further progress on brand building is being targeted and improvement in their digital route to the consumer and expansion beyond beer they've got a number of nonalcoholic beer and other beverages out on the market, interested in getting more color on how they're thinking about expansion and changes to the management incentive structure in place for heineken they're trying to decentralizing, put in place a cost management structure and many analysts are excited about the prospect on the basis that it could lead to some strong costs efficiencies i'm going to be speaking to the ceo of heineken later today. that's dolf van der brink. >> we'll be airing that interview live, definitely tune in for that interview. thank you.

i'll catch up with you later. european delivery stocks are higher after a slew of analysts' upgrades some of the big names in that sector, ocado up 2 percentage points delivery hero, up 2.3 and just eat is up. a bit of a bounce in that sector. moving over to bank, credit suisse chairman said withdrawals have slow after a social media storm over the last few months, leeman said with it has been surprising, those who left the bank have returned 10% of wealth management assets in the fourth quarter. and hsbc is looking to cut as many as 200 senior jobs in an effort to cut costs the cuts will take place across several

geographical locations and business units the stock is down about 1 percentage point today. meanwhile the state of florida is set to divest $2 billion worth of assets from blackrock as part of republican governor ron desantis war on esp investing. the asset manager is disturbed by the move which it says it ultimately will hurt floridians. and black rock after redemption requests hit a limit only 43% of requests in november with an outshare of those coming from asia. growing concerns about the commercial profiting market and the future of the blackrock real estate trust, now shares closed down over at 7% for blackstone,

very interesting story to highlight namely because it's showing that there's a revaluation going on, the private sector, we talked about the pullback in the public sector, very notable that asian investors have been looking to withdraw funds or redeem funds out of blackstone and a flurry of activity did happen in the last couple of months definitely something to keep an eye as it pertains to commercial real estate now the eu is reportedly closing in on a $60 per barrel price cap on russian oil member states are aiming to push the deal through despite opposition from poland which is trying to keep the price as low as possible, a quick look at how the commodity energy compact is

trading. just shy of $81. weaker brent around $87. still up on the week so much going on if commodity complex, for oil we have the opec plus meeting next week. talk to us about this russian price cap, because the russian oil price cap people need to distinguish what's happening in the gas market and the oil market very close to that g7 price cap deadline. >> huge focus here on different caps but when it comes to the russian oil caps, this specific price cap on russian oil, the european union is moving closer to an agreement on that, i saw a document yesterday that stated the eu is preparing to put a cap at $60 a barrel for russian oil, it's important to repeat that, important detail, and the document also says that this cap is going to be reviewed

regularly and it's going to sit at at least 5% below the average market price however, the key here is that poland is still not happy with this level of $60 a barrel, officials have told me that the polish government is having conversations about this level, they're deciding on whether or not they'll support it, but indeed this is the impasse whether poland is going to say yes and one official told me earlier you can't ignore the worries that the polish government has, so let's see how this evolve but without poland's approval this cap doesn't happen >> it's supposed to be kick-started as of monday. >> right. >> the g7 agreement is for the embargoes to kick in as of monday if they don't have a price cap agreement what happens? >> there's this outright ban on russian oil and that could

officially create a spike in prices for commodities and that's something that the americans are particularly against, so they want the europeans to agree on this cap to avoid a bigger jump and of course that won't be beneficial for anyone trying to buy oil there could be repercussions if they don't come together on this cap. >> let's talk about gas as well, it looks as though they're thinking of re-negotiating that gas price, you were on the show a week ago talking about that 270 euro megawatt level, that seems high and a bit redundant because it would never be triggered they're looking to lower it to around 260, 265. but that doesn't make a difference >> it's not a huge difference. so you have a huge number of member states that are against

the original proposed level of 275, so now there's these ongoing conversations and negotiations to make it a proposal that everyone is happy with and therefore bring it down this needs to happen before december 13th there's a lot of pressure here for the eu to come together and degree on this cap but as she was reporting earlier this week from the netherlands there's a lot of skepticism in some member states about going ahead with this with this cap on gas price sfls we spoke about this last time just remind viewers why the europeans keep going down the price cap route, why is this their main mechanism? >> because a lot of member states don't have fiscal capacity to deal with the energy crisis for them it's important to have eu-wide measures otherwise their consumers at home are going to beup set so you poland, portugal, spain, greece, several countries saying

we cannot be selfish on this, it can't be the german approach to the energy crisis we need to come together and this cap on gas prices is important to bring down the cost for consumers. >> sylvia, you spent so much of your time and more time in brussels next week, let's broaden this conversation out, because we're very focused on the detail here, at the end of the day it feels as though the europeans have done a pretty good job at weathering the storm, reducing reliance on russian gas, russian gas imports are down about 80% percentage points, in general how is the mood now out of the people -- from the people you speak to. >> it's true they have accomplished a lot and this winter things are looking pretty much stable but i have to say i have noticed a division among the member states in the last couple of weeks, that i haven't

witnessed since the pandemic, the gas price cap, the oil price cap it's being more difficult for the europeans to come to an agreement, i'm noticing here a little bit of tuition when it comes to this because it's sensitive matter, it's also market dependent but all and all they're pretty much united on red reducing it from russia. >> not a unified approach, not as unified -- >> not as quick as we have seen in the past. >> thank you for breaking it down for us. very useful segment. coming up, president biden and president macron put on a display of unity as the u.s. leader rolls out theed r carpet for his french counterpart in washington stay with us we'll be right back.

when we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money.

shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless. pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and it's ready to go. our costs for shipping were cut in half. just like that. shipstation. the #1 choice of online sellers. go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free. welcome back to "street signs. these are your headlines attention turns stateside to today's non-farm payroll reports

expected to show a slowdown in new job creations and a sign that the fed rate hikes are cooling the u.s. economy u.s. futures are muted ahead of the data and european markets remain on pace to close the week in the green. eu ministers edge closer to a deal to cap russian crude prices tentatively agreeing on a $60 per barrel ceiling just days ahead of the deadline. and president biden rolls out the red carpet for his french counterpart emmanuel m macron. >> we want to build peace and sustainable peace means full respect of sovereignty and integrity of ukraine u.s. president joe biden and emmanuel macron pledged to stay

united on their support on ukraine. macron raised concerns over the inflation reduction act saying it was quote superaggressive toward european companies. the two leaders met in washington now macron said the two countries remain focused on achieving peace between russia and ukraine. >> we want to build peace and sustainable peace means full respect of sovereignty and integrity of ukraine but at the same time, be sure we have a sustainable peace in the long run and we're very committed on this issue. >> meanwhile, biden said he was open to a dialogue with russian president vladimir putin but said it was down to him to make the first move. >> one rational way for this war to end

is pull out. sick what he's doing i have no immediate plans to contact mr. putin, mr. putin is, choose my words very carefully, i'm prepared to speak with mr. putin if in fact there's an interest in him if he's looking for a way to end the war >> they have urged china to use its influence on russia to stop the war in ukraine the two sides also agreed that nuc nuclear threats weren't acceptable p. xi said countries must avoid escalation and the expansion of the crisis in ukraine. speaking at a press conference in beijing michel both sides were responsible for peace >> china is a global player and

a permanent member -- work for peace and for the respect of the fundamental principle of the united nations chapter i urge president xi at our summit to use his influence on russia to respect the u.n. charter we have weaker handover from wall street and asian markets overnight, for the most part all of these indices are leaning towards negative territory, we've got the ftse down, the only spot of green is stocks 60 is about .5%, a better week for the most part, today things are leaning more negative. the theme has been one of

weakness for the u.s. dollar, today you can see that the pound is also trading firmer versus the u.s. dollar, we have come a long way in the pound here, euro 1.05 and the yen is trading firmer versus the u.s. dollar. in terms of european yields this is the picture for fixed income today we had quite the rally yesterday both in the u.s. and in european markets you can see the ten-year is trading about four basis points lower on the day. worth noting that it's about 70 basis points lower than we were at the peak, so these markets have really come a long way and perhaps in an unnoticed factor big focus at 3.66 as we spoke about yesterday not so long they

were trading up at 4 percentage points yield full momentum will come to a halt next year in europe, persistent inflationand higher interest rates great to have you with us, thank you for joining. let's talk about the latest european pmi numbers, because even though they came in contr contractionry territory, the numbers in europe may have bottomed, the analysis community have said we perhaps reached the trough in terms of how low these numbers are going to go, what did that signal about the state of the european economy in the coming months? >> yeah, the european economy finishing the year on a strong note that's for sure, manufacturing prediction is at an all-time highhigh

growth forecast up to 3.3% that said, what the pmi number, the strong momentum will come to an end early next year so we expect a contraction in euro zone gdp over q1, by 1% gdp driven by consumer spending for the most but also a big investment in construction that said, and that's probably why many people believe the pmi are about to bottom out, leading indicator, it's likely to kick

in for me 2023 it should be driven by the situation, probably to about 5% and in public investments >> well, while you were just responding to my question we've got some looins from the kremlin, talking about the u.s. president joe biden hewould only spook to president putin under certain situations crennel sin doesn't recognize the new territories and this complicates search for mutual basis for talks. kremlin said he remains open to talks in securing our interests. putin is open to talks with all parties. one last line, in relation to

biden's comments, the special military operation continues i'd like to come back to you, to what extent do you think this war is dampening not just the prospects for europe but in coming years as well. >> so, maybe to give you a quantified number, we were expecting growth next year to be around 3% for the euro zone and so you have an idea of the direct impact, short-term impact on the european economy, for the medium term, for sure, if this will impact the european economy in defense that energy cuts might remain more -- we have a huge competitive in european

economy because of soaring in energy costs, 4 to 5 percentage points of gdp. and the european economy, the european industry will have to cope, still high in energy prices over the years to come, probably won't -- but the competitiveness of the economy is, you have the currency and labor costs, and in this context it looks like sense good direction for the economy, the euro is weak and unlikely to appreciate over the shorter

term and the labor costs is looking more slowly -- >> right, right. one thing i want to ask you that we haven't discussed which is also very relevant as well, what kind of impact higher interest rates are going to have on the speed of recovery coming into a crucial meeting next week some people think they may go for a 70 basis point hike, a few more left after the december one, what does that do to the growth picture next year? >> yeah, this will dampen growth next year for sure one of the higher interest rates -- one of the negatives for next year. for the ecb wage inflation likely to remain -- much more

inflation to go down to 2% the ecb will continue easing monetary policy. via higher interest rates. we expect ecb to increase by 50 basis points by december and 25 basis points in february. and shrinking the position -- and this might lift interest rates, long-term interest rates much higher than they are now, so when you talked about the german bonds we exhibited ed --

german interest rates, to reach 3% in 2024 >> wow, that's quite a big call, i guess we'll be speaking before 2024 i'll remember that 3% target for 2024. thank you very much for joining us on "street signs" today. other political news the south african rand has seen volatility let's get out to cnbc africa, just spill out for us how damming these accusations are for the president. >> reporter: yeah, and the think the accusations were seen in market yesterday, the recovery

of the rand right now, yesterday the rand put forward its worst trading day as for government bonds sold over by the most since 2015 and i can tell you the country right now is on tenter hooks we're all waiting to see the president decides to do following that report that found that he may have violated the constitution relating to a transaction that took place at his farm at around two years ago in which 580,000 u.s. dollars were exchanged for cows, it's alleged the president's version of the events that a sudanese person came to the northwest south africa and came to the farm to buy cows but of course there's not much knowledge on this sudanese businessman and a clear track record of the money

entering the country other investigations going on related to this ransaction by revenue services as well as our reserve bax. despite the president's best attempts to try and clear his name and convince the independent panel that released the report the president unfortunately wasn't able to do so successfully. found quite a number of holes in the president's version of evens. as it's here in south africa the president can't paid work outside of his office and the line is thin as to whether the 580,000 dollars that was allegedly stashed in couches constitutes paid work, given the president continues to own the farm another snag despite the president saying the sudanese

came to buy cows the cows remain at the president's farm two years on as to questions of what happens right now, whether he resigns or he'll face impeachment >> very serious implications, the cash in sofa scandal, the president ramaphosa succeeded his predecessor his goal was to stamp out corruption and he himself is potentially now faced with an impeachment which is notable. tell us about how this is all shaping up ahead of the conference that's happening i believe next week because the assumption was that president ramaphosa would be elected again, now all of this thrown up in the air.

>> reporter: most certainly and the ironic thing as you did make reference on how the president actually came in in replaces the former president zuma with was a particular clause that did say if any member of the government or the ruling party is facing allegations of any sort or is seen to be in the wrong in office that member should step aside and allow for investigations to take their course which is why it's such a loud voice from opposition parties right now that the president should step aside he fall on his sword and essentially walk his talk, there were reports yesterday that the president actually planned to resign however he's backers convinced not to do so the shifting of that national executive committee meeting from

initially yesterday to then earlier this morning and now later this afternoon at 2:00 p.m. central african time. in terms of what happens next in the leadup to december 16th conference in which it will elect its next leader, a couple of scenarios but the latest that i have heard is in the event that his spotters are successful in convincing him to stay in office the scenario the president would run for party president still and in the event that the president was victorious in his election second term he would possibly step down shortly following after the conference and may possibly give way to another name in the -- currently the anc

chairman >> and as you say that we're keeping a close eye on the south african rand here, a bit of a recovery compared to some of the price action we had yesterday but a lot can happen over the next couple of weeks thank you so much for that reporting. also coming up on street signs, twitter treats advertisers to sweeter deals as the social media giant looks to draw them back today's rollout goes quiet we'll talk more about that in a few moments. hi. i'm wolfgang puck when i started my online store wolfgang puck home i knew there would be a lot of orders to fill and i wanted them to ship out fast that's why i chose shipstation shipstation helps manage orders reduce shipping costs and print out shipping labels it's my secret ingredient shipstation the number 1 choice of online sellers

and wolfgang puck go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free

that also applies to content moderation as well there are enough people to moderate. quick look at u.s. futures ahead of that all-important non-farm payroll, still seeing negative that's it for toy'das show worldwide exchange is coming up next

why do nearly one million businesses choose stamps.com to mail and ship? stamps.com is convenient you get the services of the post office right on your computer stamps.com saves you money with great rates from usps and ups mail letters ship packages anytime anywhere for less a lot less get our special tv offer a 4-week trial plus postage and a digital scale go to stamps.com/tv and get started today

these days, a 4-week trial plu our households depend on a the internet more and more. families grow, houses get smarter, and our demands on the internet increase. that's why we just boosted speeds for over 20 million

xfinity customers, on us. so you get more of the speed you need for day and night streaming. more speed you need when you're work from homeing. and more speed you need as your family keeps growing. check in on your current speed through the xfinity app today. as a business owner, your bottom line is always top of mind. so start saving by switching to the mobile service designed for small business: comcast business mobile. flexible data plans mean you can get unlimited data or pay by the gig. all on the most reliable 5g network. with no line activation fees or term contracts. saving you up to 60% a year. and it's only available to comcast business internet customers. so boost your bottom line by switching today. comcast business. powering possibilities.

it is 5:00 a.m. and here is your top five at 5:00. we begin with wait and see stocks looking to extend their losses from yesterday as investors a wait the november employment report. and strike averted, congress pushing forward an effort to avoid a rail strike that could have cost the u.s. economy $2 billion a day. and encore cap reports this morning the european union is closing in on a deal over russian crude prices ahead of monday's implementation