tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 2, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EST
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it is 5:00 a.m. and here is your top five at 5:00. we begin with wait and see stocks looking to extend their losses from yesterday as investors a wait the november employment report. and strike averted, congress pushing forward an effort to avoid a rail strike that could have cost the u.s. economy $2 billion a day. and encore cap reports this morning the european union is closing in on a deal over russian crude prices ahead of monday's implementation
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date and kanye west, what he did to anger elon musk. and speaking of elon musk, a huge night for tesla and the biggest little city in the world and not a moment too soon. it is friday december 2, 2022, you are watching worldwide exchange right here on cnbc. good morning, happy friday, i'm frank holland. let's kick off the hour with a check on u.s. stock futures. they are pretty much flat. not a lot of movement. but however, also want to keep track because there could be a lot of movement later on in the day when the jobs report comes out. we also want to check the bond market as we see, yields are down a little bit from what we saw earlier this week. in fact the ten year is about 15 basis points lower than it was as to start the bike two year note, almost 25 basis points lower than it was
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so we've still seeing the inverted yield curve but the spread is starting to close just a bit, something to watch. we often call that recession indicator. oil prices are up slightly this morning. wti crude at 81 bucks a barrel, brent at 87 bucks a barrel both five or six bucks more than they started the week. and pay attention to crypto. we're seeing bitcoin back below the 17,000mark that somehow became meaningful. ether, xrp and cardano both down and early trade in europe, let's go to the london newsroom with much more on that. happy friday >> happy friday, frank and not a happy friday for asian markets. you can see a lot of red on the board behind me taking their couldcu from wall street
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not a lot of new news when it comes to the covid restrictions. but their best week in over a month. nikkei is down 1.6 percentage points you would have thought there would be a bigger bounce given the big football victory yesterday. but not really transpiring in the nikkei down 1.6 percentage points investors paying close attention to what is happening with the yen. in europe, we just got ppi numbers come through, coming in slightly lower than expectations that 30% handle versus 31% year on year expectation. so still more signs that the inflation profile in europe has started to drop somewhat a bit of a mixed picture you can see the ftse 100 down about three tentenths point and some cues coming from china. and the dax is up two tenths
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not a big boost of can export, but imports have dropped so much on the back of weakness in german consumer demand for the week as a whole, we'll be ending up in slightly positive territory for the stoxx 600. >> and something to watch especially with the big opec meeting coming up. thank you very much. back here in the united states, investors are waiting for the november jobs report due out at 8:30 a.m. eastern time. economists expecting employers added just around 200,000 jobs, down slightly from the prior month. joining me now with his expectations and what it could mean for the possible policy pivot is john, chief asset manager. >> good to be on the show with you. when we look at this, we think that the market's action yesterday essentially tipped it hat the importance of this data
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that we'll get the reality is that the federal reserve's efforts are beginning to have an effect on inflation and on the momentum of the economy. the old adage is be careful what you wish for because you just might get it the market used to worry about the fact that the fed was behind the curve and then when they got on the shtick so to speak, originally it wasn't enough and now it looks like could it be too much we can't help but think that the number that we'll get will likely give the fed the idea that it will be able to continue raising rates into next year but at less high levels. so we'll see coming off of the 75 bips boil that it has been on for a while. >> and so as we mentioned, jobs report might be market moving. coming off a pce report better than expected and of course we have a fed meeting coming up could this jobs report have a
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significant impact on the fed meeting or will the cpi have a bigger impact? >> i think the cpi probably will the federal reserve, i think that they get to really see what is going on when they look at the beige book, effects of all the anecdotal evidence that they find from the regional federal reserves around the country. but they will look at the cpi and core cpi of course will be the real important thing that they will likely watch but we feel comfortable with the situation because we are leaving a period of free money bad for leverage players we think it is better for fundamental players. so essentially should be good for intermediate to longer term investors while uncertainty remains volatile from time to time, babies thrown out with the bath water, i think that we're headed out of the woods. >> so core cpi could be a market
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mover. let's get your forecast of the market what is your s&p frostorecast, sectors will do the best >> now to year end, i think we'll stick with where we are. we'll see an improvement in terms of recognition that cyclical stocks make a lot of sense. we'll get growth value sectors likely participating in the rally as they have been. we might -- you know, technology has been doing a lot better. i think the stoxx is up nearly 30% versus the s&p 500, which is as i recall up around 12% in that time. and so when we look at it, you've got opportunity here. you want to stick with the profit generating companies and good cash flow we continue to like tech,
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consumer discretionary, financials and industrials which we've been accumulating for years now. and it is finally getting some recognition this year. >> john, you deserve all the recognition, my friend enjoy the weekend. great to have you on >> thanks, frank we turn now to washington and the senate voting to prevent a nationwide strike by railroad workers that could have cost billions of dollars per day. brie jackson is joining us i would imagine a bit of a sigh of relief in d.c >> reporter: absolutely. sigh of relief from members of congress as well as from president biden who celebrated had news during the state dinner last night he hosted his first state dinner and it gave him a chance to shore up relations with one of the nation's oldest allies, france a toast to diplomacy for the biden administration's first state dinner filled with pomp and pageantry
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at the table, lobster and decorations along with concerns about global issues like climate change and russia's war with ukraine. >> we stand together against oppression and injustice we stick up for one another in our democratic values. >> this time together shoulder to shoulder, entitled to say at the same time we the people and liberty. >> reporter: united front follows a rare sign of bipartisan on capitol hill lawmakers reached a deal to prevent what could have been a costly nationwide rail strike. the agreement provides rail workers a 24% pay raise over five years >> i think that we'll see more and more actions like this where we're holding employers accountable and delivering what the workers deserve. >> reporter: the measure now heads to president biden's desk, but it will not include the seven days of paid leave that some rail unions pushed for.
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mr. biden is promising to continue fighting for better benefits for the rail industry and beyond >> we're going to get paid leave not just for rail workers but all workers. >> reporter: with the rail strike averted, congress must now focus on reaching a budget deal or risk a government shutdown and in order to prevent a government shutdown, congress must reach a budget deal by december 16 and they will still have to work out some differences over additional funding for ukraine and whether to pass a one year budget or a shorter term deal. frank. >> yeah, huge sigh of relief brie jackson, congrats on your work anniversary and a personal anniversary. congrats to you. we can have a light moment now that the vote is done. u.s. economy will be okay. >> reporter: thank you so much and when we come back, why the european union is about to do something that could send oil prices surging plus kanye west kicked off twitter once again
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we'll tell you what he did to anger elon musk. and later, a closer look at how much home prices would need to fall to bring affordability levels back to february. cated ss that occur in their lives. for them it's the biggest milestone, the biggest accomplishment, the sale of a business, or an important event for their family. for them, it's the first and only time. we have seen this literally thousands of times, in thousands of iterations. ♪ ♪ i am vince lumia, head of field management at morgan stanley. whether that's retirement, paying for their children's college education, or their son or daughter getting married, our financial advisors need to make sure that they are making objective decisions, every step along the way. every time you hit a milestone, an anniversary, a life event, the emotions will run high. making sure that you have somebody, a team of individuals that have seen it before, have seen every circumstance and seen every challenge,
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scheduled to go in to effect on monday as investors a wait the outcome of the sunday opec plus meeting. the group largely expected to stick to its target of cutting by 2 million barrels a day let's bring in paul sankey great to have you on >> good morning. >> so a lot going on here. opec meeting coming up on sunday a lot of other macro factors including china's delayed reopening, potential energy crisis in europe what are you expecting from the opec+ meeting, any big surprises? >> i don't think so, no. simply because as you say the cross currents this time of year is very tricky with winter literally starting m metrologically this week, very difficult to make a call on how tight or loose the market will be right here. as you know they are already out there with what they said would be a 2 million barrel a day cut
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at the last meeting which i actually attended in vienna. and they haven't really forced had through. so really the parameters are there for them to cut if they feel the market is getting too loose. one thing is that the price has come down a lot and we think saudi would prefer prices more like $100 brent where right now they are $20 below that more or less so you have to keep an eye on how the market tightens up if at all and if it doesn't what the response of saudi will be, which i think is a question for the future, not for sunday >> and this week in the run-up to that opec+ meeting, we've seen oil rise about five or six bucks a barrel you had face team with the ceo of chevron did he give you any insight about what he is expecting from that opec+ meeting and the oil market in general? >> well, he is very inciteful. in his view the biggest issue is china and the question of in
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terms of this supply side of oil is challenged. the demand side is the question here you've obviously got a difficult economic question which is very hard to second guess generally but the china covid situation is extremely tricky and what mike was talking about, ceo of chevron, was essentially the covid challenge but vaccine in china that doesn't seem to work well at all and the risk of widespread covid there with the health system that may not be able to handle a major covid outbreak so a delicate place having to lock down to avoid a major health crisis, but at one point he described the china economy as running at stall speed, very close to really getting bad. and so the chinese are in a very tricky position. and whether or not they crank the economy and risk more covid or essentially continue to shut down because of the health risks
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is i would say and i degree the biggest single risk of 2023. and as i've said before, the problems with china become problems with oil. it has been the biggest single drive of the oil markets on the demand side the past 20 years. so it is a tough one and a tough one for opec too >> yeah, i've heard a lot of people say after opec announced cuts earlier this year, they were surprised not to see prices go up, but china remaining relatively close is a big issue. >> and for examplewhile saudi cut production, they didn't cut exports as much. demand goes down after summer so saudi can say they are cutting production but they really cadidn't cut do. much at all. so i think that that was a political move in terms of sending a message to the biden administration as much as
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anything and they didn't really follow through on it. >> and one last question, we touched on the russian oil cap possibly coming through. do you have a price target for wti and brent for the end of the year very quickly >> we're looking for 120 brent by driving season, so not quite answering your question, but driving season next summer so that would be by may 2023 and in the meantime, we'll see it looks like it will be cold in europe, which is bullish for prices obviously and i think at this stage the price won't make much difference because we don't think the mechanism particularly works >> thank you, appreciate the insight. enjoy the weekend. still on deck, an exclusive with chief investment officer on where e utngonshis pti mey to work right now
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with gold bond... you can age on your own terms. new retinol overnight means the smoothing benefits of retinol are now for your whole body. plus, fast-working crepe corrector diminishes wrinkled skin in just two days. gold bond. champion your skin. woelelcome back. time for your big money movers asana shares sinking after a loss for its most recent quarter. and also issuing weaker than expected guidance for the current quarter. again, shares down 18% and now to a company forecasting better than expected earnings and sales for fiscal send quarter. shares down almost 8%. and marvel technology also
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following. the chip maker missing on the top and bottom lines for the most recent quarter. fourth quarter estimate also weaker than expected shares down almost 7%. and a very busy morning in the twitterverse breaking this morning, ye formerly known as kanye west has been kicked off twitter once again for posting more anti-semitic imagery in a tweet elon musk said i tried my best. despite that, he again violated our rule against incitement to violence account will be suspended. the suspension comes just 12 days after musk reinstated west on to the platform also news that they are no longer buying parler and joining me now is argin. >> yeah, fascinating turn of events here from twitter and elon musk because really musk bought this platform on this
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sort of platform of free speech absolutism and that is being tested clearly that has a lot of implications for advertisers and ultimately whether advertisers will be attracted to this platform has elon musk done enough by suspending kanye's account to show that he is serious cleaning up inappropriate behavior and will that be enough for advertisers to come flocking back to the platform >> and we emailed privately, both of us are big fans of west's music but what he is doing is completely wrong. hate speech. totally against it but my question to you, when you start kicking off someone like kanye west, is that slippery slope for twitter? does that lead to other people potentially being taken off the platform for example president trump who tends to be a big draw on the social media site >> i think this is the problem at the moment, that it is very hard to understand where elon musk's red lines lie
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clearly this was a vile post from kanye west, it went too far in musk's eyes in particular and he thought that was key for suspension the question is will the suspension last for a long time. we understand that it is probably just a few hours, about 12 hours or so, or is this a permanent ban for kanye. and that really will be i think the questions elon musk has to ask as he goes forward, what does twitter's moderation policy look like, is it something that is clear and well defined. of course no one is saying that previous management had everything correct but they felt at least that they were trying to make an effort to define what it meant to play by twitter's rules when it came to content. and again, i think it goes back to the report that twitter was handing out a load of incentives to draw advertisers back to the platform but of course it is not just about those economic incentives for advertisers. they need to feel comfortable that their ads won't be put up
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next to any kind of inappropriate tweets which could land their brands in hot water and i think at the moment that is something really that elon musk and twitter has to figure out. that will be incredibly difficult not just because i think at this point as i mentioned, musk's own red lines in terms of what is acceptable and not are not clear, but also the fact that thousands of employees have been laid off could impact the way that these moderation teams work as well. and that could be a challenge for moderating content going forward. >> and we were already planning to have you on not even about kanye west but blue checks and gray checks, whatever different checks are have the verified service. that was supposed to roll out today. are we still expecting to see that come? >>en come conflicting reports elon musk said today was the day that the blue verified service would be laid out. but two separate sources with conflicting information. platformer newsletter saying that the rollout has been postponed because elon musk is
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unhappy still with the 15% to 30% in app purchase cut that apple takes. the information meanwhile reporting that it will launch on ios only but what we know is that it will cost $8 a month and different colored checks depending on the kind of account. gold check for companies, a gray check for government accounts, a blue check for individuals the key is whether they issue the problems it initially had whereby users were buying the blue checks and impersonating celebrities and high profile people has been resolved elon musk said they will manually authenticate every account that signs up. again, a mammoth task on their hands to make sure that this can roll out effectively without any issues at this point >> and we know you'll be on top of the story we'll look for your reporting. thank you and happy friday
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straight ahead here, this week's biggest insider buys and one ceo betting big to the sun of $100 million on his own stock that is already up 50% this year and if you haven't already, follow our podcasts on apple, oty d hepoasapps ♪♪ for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin.
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of a possible fed pivot after yesterday's lower than expected inflation read and elon musk bringing the next generation of trucking to america's highways highlights from a wild night in reno, next and the senate passing a bill to overt a railroad strike that could have brought the economy to a grinding halt it is friday, december 2, you're watching "worldwide exchange." welcome back, i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan. it is 5:30 here on the east coast. we're pretty much flat across the board. something to watch especially with the jobs report coming up we do have to pay attention to the bond market. bond yields right now as we can see, they are actually lower than they were yesterday the ten year note at 3.51.
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two year note about 25 basis points lower, ten year about 15 basis points lower again the jobs report could impact that. we also want to check the crypto market as we always do excuse me, oil jumping the gun. oil market, pretty much flat this morning however, both wti and brent crude both about five, six bucks higher big opec+ meeting coming up over the weekend. time for your top insider buys and we send it over to brian sullivan >> time for your weekly exclusive insider buyer segment. i'll do news daily right after this taping. does that work rolling an strolling one take sully >> all right as you can see, a couple technical difficulties there but i'm telling you he had the insider buyer segment.
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we'll get to it later. right now a sigh of relief is being breathed after a rail air strike was narrowly avoided. and also pippa stevens has more of the top corporate stories >> good morning, frank starting here with the senate, succeeding in preventing a rail labor strike late yesterday. voting to force unions to accept the current labor agreement in a rare show of bipartisanship. the bill which will save the u.s. economy an estimated $2 billion a day had the strike went on now heads to president biden's desk and tesla delivering its first all-electric semi trailer trucks to pepsi in reno, nevada late last night >> it is fun, it looks awesome and this is actually a big shortage of drivers. so if you are a truck driver and you want the most badass rig on the road, this is it >> a this is five years after musk originally unveiled the all electric truck which was originally due out in 2019 but
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delayed due to part shortages. musk says it has a range per charge of a500 miles when pullig an 82,000 pound load tesla plans to make 50,000 truck through 2024 in north america. and the european union is closing in on a possible russian oil price cap of $60 per barrel. if a deal is reached, the cap is scheduled to go into effect on monday this as investors and vtraders wait the outcome of the opec+ meeting, expected to cut to their production of 2 million barrels less per day so a pivot cal wal week coming . >> my big takeaway, you can say bad a on cnbc. i won't say it thank you, pippa let's get back to the
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broader markets and a 30,000 foot view of things. and we send it over to brian sullivan for this exclusive. hopefully it works this time >> pleased to be joined by chief investment officer global equities and investments great to have you back on "worldwide exchange. you heard from jay powell, data shows inflation may be cooling off a bit, still hot historically where do you really see inflation now and where is it heading in the next six to 12 months >> brian, i think that we're still very data dependent and people are reading too much into what jay powell said yesterdrem and i think it is premature to call a verdict on what inflation is going to peak at. and i certainly don't want to be one of those people to make that prediction but i think that it will be higher for longer. and that is a challenge for markets. >> does that mean the fed will be more aggressive for longer? >> i'm not sure that they will
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be more aggressive, but even if it is slower, i think it is premature to call a victory on inflation. i think that we'll be higher for longer and that is bad news for equity markets because if you think about real estate, if it is about location, location, location, equities is about earnings, earnings, earnings and so whether we have an economic recession that is soft or hard, i think that we'll have an earnings recession next year and that is what i would suggest investors be focused on. >> because there does seem to be this theme in the market, and maybe we've been so trained on this that, you know, the fed is either going up or it is going down that is kind of the way it has been for a long time now and everybody thinks when they stop hiking, maybe they will start cutting. feels like you -- which means equities would go up feels like you fundamentally disagree with that >> i think people are penny wise pound foolish. it is not about rate change, it is about a regime change the thing i would focus on more is quantitative tightening
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versus quant aquantitative easi. we already saw the impact it had on the mortgage bond market the moment the fed stopped buying mortgage bonds, rates shot up way higher than i think anybody anticipated. and i think a similar development occurs with respect to the entirety of the yield curve around the world because the u.s. tends to send benchmark rates for the world. but we're likely to be in a higher than longer scenario for a couple years and that is poor for equity markets that are not prepared >> so are you talking about global equity markets, the u.s. stock market or are there parts of the world that you do like? >> globallyy we're heading for recession. it will probably be a rolling recession. it is already in china and will spread to the europe and then the u.s. and that will create a global recession
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and i think consensus estimates are too high and need to come down at least by double digits and then multiples derate. and the other thing that i would point out is for a long time the market has supported equity investing because there is no alternative. but now there is now we're in the treasuries are giving you 4% rates of interest. that is a lot of competition for an equity market like the s&p 500 which only gives you a 1.5%. >> you know, i'm going to be in europe most of next week covering the eu oil sanzs, potential price caps what is going to happen with the energy crisis in 2023 and beyond it is not really about this winter, it is about next year. and there is this view that everything is fine because, oh, storage levels are good. no, half the storage was filled up with natural gas by russian gas which is no longer available. and so i don't know, i'm really
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worried about maybe europe can muddle through, but from an economic perspective, it seems hard to see how their economies can prosper. and that is an economy that is effectively together the same size as the united states. are you worried about europe economically >> i'm worried about the world economically because we are headed in to a geopolitical situation of deglobalization and that is generally inflationary in nature and that is my concern that we are being used to an environment where inflation was either falling or under control and i'm not convinced that we have the cat in the bag going forward there are too many inflationary forces and cheap fuel will hurt a lot of industries vicariously. europe is just the beginning of that deglobalization means higher
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costs. and that is something that the markets need to be prepared for. >> so leave us with a little bit of opportunity i mean, your job is to protect your clients' wealth, grow it, as well as -- is it just only maybe about short term treasuries and cash right now, or are there some areas that look attractive? >> in fact i agree with you, our job is to provide where is the investment opportunity i'm finding it actually in pockets of the mar can ket value tends to cluster and it is in the uk. a lot of the bad news politically and economically in the uk i think is only in the price and there are good yields in that market in brazil and latin america, also very well positioned for up side because they are commodity exportsers to the extent commodities is causing inflation, they benefit as opposed to suffer from it so there are opportunities but not the conventional places
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that people look at. >> are you buying brazilian equities or debt or both >> i already bought because we try to look ahead and not think of things contemporaneously. but there is still an opportunity for bottoms up stock picking in particular you asked about how would you position portfolios for this environment ahead. i think that two strategies that make sense, one is dividend yielding strategies. and sencond is low ball strategies both of which i position for already in my portfolios and people want to know the details of it it is on the website. but those are the two attributes that we look for the most. things that i'd be suspect or wary about is lefverage or liquidity. leverage finds themselves into trouble and liquidity i don't think will be plentifully available next year and the year after.
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so there will probably be a lid liquidity discount not the kinds of things that people look at in portfolios which is why i'm flagging them as blind spots >> thanks to brian sullivan for that interview coming up here, housing health check and just how far home prices need to fall to make up for the ridisinap re rate this is year
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the buyer segment here where we highlight the top five stocks being bought the most all with their own money. and this in-foweek there are biy by big names fifth is 3d systems, $192,000 buy by the ceo fourth most insider buy is logistics and warehousing firm, $1.02 million buy by a board member so may be seeing value in the stock. number three is iac. this is just about a $5 million buy by a board member named michaelize isner yes, former ceo of disney. and now to the top two, and listen to this one
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energy transfer, have you heard the name before? you have this is another massive buy by the founder and executive chair kelsey warren. he bought just over $22 million this week which means that he has bought more than 100 million worth of his own stock this year 100 million in a bunch of batches in shares of energy transfer and the stock is up 50% so he is buying in to strength. and the most is americo, ticker u- u-haul $28.2 million buy by the ceo so there you go, the top names this week. and we do this almost every friday here on worldwide exchange you will see it here or cnbc pro sign up today. and turning now to the housing market as mortgage rates have shot up, home prices have weakened, but
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certainly not in lock step without a rise in interest rates. how far does pricing need to come up to make up the difference we turn to diana olick >> housing market has cooled dramatically in just the last four months due to the sharp rise in mortgage rates huge home price gains during the first years of the pandemic as well as inflation hitting the up canner hard. prices are now pulling back still higher than they were a year ago, but dropping month to month more than usual seasonal patterns so we wanted to take a look at what it would take to get affordability back to where it was just a year ago. the average rate on the 30 year fixed has been moving between 6.5% and 7% the last fewnfew we. it was 3% a year ago so let's compare home shopping take a $400,000 house which is around the median u.s. price with a 20% down payment on a 30 year fixed mortgage and rate of 3%, the monthly payment
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including principal and interest would be $1349 now, a 7% interest rate bumps that payment up to $2129 a 58% higher payment so if we're keeping the rate at 7%, the home price would have to drop 37%, that is from $400,000 to $253,500 to get to that first lower payment. i hope you followed the math there. and much thanks to black night to going all this math for us. it is unlikely that prices would drop that much because this is a unique market with still strong buyer demand and very low supply of homes for sale. realistically it will take adjustments across the board that is in prices, rates and incomes to bring affordability back to long run averages. >> so how has the market cooled traumatically in the last few months due to the rise in interest rates we've obviously seen a drop in mortgage rates do you expect them to go much lower and what effect is that
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having >> well, we actually this week saw an even sharper drop in rates down to below the 6.5%, 6.29%, and do i think that they will go much lower no and they could bump back up higher again but we did get a report from red fin this morning, a real estate brokerage, that showed in the last couple weeks they have seen a bump up in buyer demand and they measure how many people are calling red fin agents saying that they are interested also we saw mortgage applications to buy a home last week jump 4% week to week according to the mortgage banker so maybe some people saying rates came down briefly, i got to jump now, worried that rates might go back up again so we don't have the crystal ball on where rates will go directly again, we're still twice where we were a year ago >> diana olick with the latest on the housing market, thank you very much. coming up here, with today's jobs report, what it could mean for your stock portfolio
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and don't miss the final day for pro week here. christina will speak with ever corr, it is real trades and real money live on the line at 3:00 p.m. ♪♪ energy demands are rising. and the effects are being felt everywhere. that's why at chevron, we're increasing production in the permian basin by 15%. and we're projected to reach 1 million barrels of oil per day by 2025.
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that easy. innovation refunds has helped businesses like yours claim over $1 billion in payroll tax refunds. but it's only available for a limited time. go to innovationrefunds.com to learn more. ♪♪ welcome back a final check of the markets ahead of the november jobs report futures are pretty much flat fractionally lower joining me now from winthrop capital management, greg, thanks for being here >> thank you, frank. >> big jobs report coming up on the back of a better than expected pcu report and jay powell signaling, up for interpretation, but signaling a
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softening of rate hikes. what do you expect from the jobs report and how does it impact the markets today? >> we're in the camp that it is 200,000 but the risk is to the down side. we're seeing a slowdown in the jobs market, but the context is the jobs market is very healthy, so we still have 10 million job openings with 6 million people unemployed but we're seeing a shift with jobs coming out of the tech sector and some of the mass layoffs are coming from tech the most -- big headline is the law enforcement at twitter but there is still jobs out there. so unemployment rate is 3.7% and we expect when the fed finally finishes its cycle, unemployment will move probably to around 4.5% >> not only do we have the fed meeting but also the cpi report which may be some tea leaves for what everybody will be i guess trading on what do you expect from that cpi report and does that impact the fed's decision >> well, so i think the answer
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is yes and no. the context for this is the fed was behind the curve so the fed had to move quickly to adjust short term interest rates and they did so this year by shifting rates hire by 300 basis points so not quite to the parity rate. we think parity is 4.5%. they put the narrative in the market that we could take a bit more of a wait and see attitude and slow down the aggressive push higher because they have caught up. but if you go back to 1970s, cycle to 1975, the fed did just enough to get inflation under control, but they never really broke the back of inflation until the second period in the '70s and we think that is what this fed is going to do >> earlier in the show we were talking about the decline in bond yields. what we've seen the last few weeks especially since november 9. >> wow >> yeah, thank you, wow, pretty big. difference between the ten year and two year starting to close a bit. i don't know if that lessens
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concerns or not. but how does that shape your thoughts when it comes to bonds? >> we've been hustling to extend duration this is a wonderful buying opportunity for fixed income investors because we can finally get income into a portfolio without taking excessive risk, you know, in credit quality or duration but now we can extend. the move we've seen in rates the last two days, we've seen the ten year down to 3.5%. that is a big move from 30 days ago. triple b credit is a 60 basis point move over the last 30 days both this credit, spread tightening and decline in interest rates >> and you have a couple stock picks too. i want to start with the one i have the most questions about. nvidia where is the opportunity there >> well, it is in the auto market nvidia -- we have five picks that we're looking at, three are in the tech space. nvidia, the semiconductor space has gotten cheap
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from a multiple standpoint, nvidia is always too rich for us to buy and it is final down to a valuation that we think is affordable so, yeah, even though it is a pretty healthy 30 times earnings, it is down from 60 and i think that the markets that they serve, they are the premiere chip provider which are gaming in autos. >> and you are also bullish on microsoft. give us the elevator pitch >> microsoft at the end of the day is an amazing company. they are firing on all cylinders. they still have the overseas market in china that is a big market for them that can be tapped but the software is a service, subscription model is working, integration of the gaming business is wonderful and top three in the cloud services industry and cloud is here to stay so they have got pricing power in the cloud market. >> and what about alphabet >> alphabet, the advertising model will slow with the
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decline. and that is a valuation play, but we think valuation is moving into a very affordable area. when we get down to 12 to 14 times forward earnings, they have some litigation issues that they are working through in europe, but at the end of the day, it is a great model and they have got the premiere platform on the web. so again, one of the themes we have is in the cloud space and they are one of the top in the cloud space. >> greg, appreciate the insight. enjoy your weekend >> thank you and one last look at the futures. futures basically flat right now. they have been all morning long ahead of the jobs report oil market very similar story. right now wti trading at about 81 bucks a barrel. brent at almost 87 buck as barrel a last look at crypto, bitcoin still below the key 17,000 mark. all down for the week. that will do it for "worldwide
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. stocks relatively calm as investors a wait the jobs data and key opec meeting over the weekend, we'll get you ready for both rail strike averted, the senate voting to force unions to accept the offered contract. president biden says that he will sign the deal #. and early test for elon musk oversight of twitter content, the service suspending kanye west after he tweeted an image of a swastika. it is friday, december 2 "squawk box" begins right now.
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good morning, everybody. welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc i'm becky quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin who are having a conversation as the show is starting >> first time. yeah >> you can handle it >> and continues during the commercial breaks. >> i'm trying to pretend like i don't see you. let's take a look at the u.s. equity futures it is friday, we finally got here for the week all the major averages are up although the dow with its losses yesterday are only up by about 50.1% the jobs report will be the moving number, people waiting ahead of that, futures are relatively
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