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>> all right, scott walker welcome to "fast money," the big show right now on the show we've got calm on the street stocks don't end up freaking out after a fearful morning following that jobs report our traders in a wait and see mode ahead of key inflation data and the big fed decision coming up plus, beijing boom by spite the protests and covid lockdown, chinese stocks are surging. the k web etf tracks china how has china gone from being uninvestable to red hot? later on, our chart of the week and e-commerce darling that craters and is making a major come back. is this a kraft-y way to play the season that's the mystery chart clue there i'm dominic chu. on the desk tonight we've got tim seymour, courtney garcia,

steve grasso and jeff mills as well we will start with the whimper to end the week on wall street stocks closing well off the lous the s&p and nasdaq barely in the red while the dow managed to eke out a slight gain. the news coming after news the economy added 263,000 jobs in november and wages grew by .6% both numbers adding to inflationary measures, but markets mostly shrugged off those concerns all three major indexes able to end the week in positive territory. so does today's market action suggest that markets really have put their bottom in, tim seymour? >> here at the nasdaq. if you think about how the s&p traded today and the last couple day after the powell rally we have had, i bring up those

numbers all the time, off that october 13th cpi low, we're up almost 17% on the s&p. the keys to me today were a good note talking about how some of the payroll numbers may be overstating the employment numbers. if you look at the gdp numbers you can see the tax receipts and wages are being revised downward second quarter in a row. without getting too deep into the weeds, the labor market is going to get weaker. we've seen this. big tech is cutting job after job. while that may not be the entire company, we have a dynamic -- the markets, we have a quiet period going into the fed. next week, light on data we know what the seasons hare an technicals are >> courtney, from a fundamental standpoint you can understand what the market reaction was after a hotter than expected jobs number. the economy is running hot wages are growing faster than people thought they were going to this makes the fed job 45rder, hence the market sell-off.

what happened? why the rally into the close today especially, and why did rates go lower >> i don't think realistically this changes anything that's going to happen, especially next week for the fed it is expected they're going to raise 50 basis points. there's 70% odds of that happening. the fed stated the strong labor force they already know about, know this is a problem, and said that this week when they hinted they might pause on -- or i guess not raise rates quite as high going forward they only really can control demand but not supply in the labor market s this a big problem happening baby boomer have been leaving the labor force 2.2 million per year since 2010, and that's happening regardless of what the fed is doing you're going to have a tight labor market whether you're raising interest rates or not, and i think they have to realize that. >> stooe grasso, the sturs part of what happened today, throughout the course of the session, especially the afternoon work saw the mega cap

darling names, the netflixs, microsofts, rally off the lows is this a signal that rates are appropriately positioned where they are >> you said it already -- rates didn't do anything today in reaction to that jobs number right? the dollar didn't do anything in reaction to that jobs number we heard from chairman powell on wednesday. we got the number today. the market loved what he had to say. why would it change on this jobs number he already got a glimpse, right? we had a fed governor tell us that he gets a glimpse a couple days in advance. the he already had a glimpse of that and we got it today, he's not going to change his stance this is still going to be dumbish. this is still going to be a decrease in pace, 50 basis points so i think, not to get too won i can or inside baseball, but algorithms read the tape what do they do? sell or buy based on the language they see on the tape

some before a human being could get to that -- to what was happening, the algorithms pushed the market down. traders got nervous, and everyone said, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a minute, nothing changed it's 50 bips buy the market. >> jeff, algorithms may be trading this marketing but people write algorithms. coders are out there putting algorithms in place. they're the one who is tell these computer programs what to do when something happens. if you look, there's an argument made this could be a scenario where the fed is focused on journey versus destination we've heard that a lot what's the pace of rate hikes? or what happens in term of how fast they do it? or is it more important to look at where they end? what do you think now in did today's data change your mind about whether it's journey or destination? >> i think ultimately it is destination, right i know the pace they can sort of

assess what they're doing, and don't go too far, but policy acts with such a lag that i don't know that matters. i think it's the terminal rate we said it before, i don't think powell said anything new talked about hmoderating in december we already knew that he said restrictive for some time i think that's intentionally vague, but in my opinion it doesn't mean short-term. and this relief rally that we're getting, that's nothing new either stocks rallied after ever press conference this year so yes, the market is in reasonable shape right now we have 65% of stocks above the 200-day moving average that's good. there's participation there. it's more than we've seen at any time this year but you know what's not above the 200-day moving average triple q, apple, tesla we talk about that earlier in the week i do think that could be a head wind the last thing i'll say is technically there are some sign

of early fatigue we're pushing to new highs in this rally, but it's about 25% of stocks. it was over 50 a couple weeks ago. this could be anar signal, but i think it's noteworthy, and we still are below that downtrend that start in the year, somewhere around 2,400 i would just watch that. i would use this rally to lighten up on exposure as we move into the end of the year, although i do think it could continue that long. >> all right okay, so if we talk about this idea, and maybe i'll thousand this out to you, tim, about using some of the strength that we've seen to lighten up on exposure, to make that so you have dry powder later down the line is there a sense you get how much further this could go down if there were hypothetically another leg lower? >> if you look at the s&p over the last nine months, trading ranges are very pronounce.

the fact that we've pushed up against this hard, have we broken through it? i don't know there's thing you can do as an investor upside calls this is a way to enhance yield in a portfolio i think we talk about investing from the perspective of stock by stock and also being tactical for a portfolio. do i think markets are going to go lower yes. do i think they can go higher in the short-term yes. as long as rates -- the most extraordinary thing is rate went lower on the day we had this payroll number two days after we had the -- till rates start moving high earthquake i think equity is continuing to go lower. until the dollar starts moving lower -- >> there's a debate playing out about whether that lower rate for the ten-year, and it could be trending lower right now signals something about slower growth at some point down the line, no matter what

you mentioned that 200 day on the s&p. any way, let's turn to crude oil. wti dipping blow 80 bucks a barrel ahead of a big week for energy the eu's ban on russian crude going into effect monday, with prices currently near where they started the year, the chart master sees more energy ahead. let's bring in carter worth to break it all down for us what are you seeing? >> thanks, dom let's go right to the charts crude oil spiked on the invasion of ukraine, and that high is 130, 132 touched a low of 73 and change that's a 44% decline let's put lines and arrows on it and try to figure it out technically. this is the exact same chart what we know, and this is important, is that we have been on trend and bounced close to trend.

we bounced again, and now we've undercut and while we've thrown back a bit, gone from 73 and change to low, closed almost at 80, the odds of real upside from here i think are low. more importantly of course is the energy market itself in terms of sharer's market thiss the xle. this is the fascinating thing. is it opec demand for oil is it supply or is it -- to the penny to the penny it's annoying to the fundam fundamentalists. they don't like this to the penny big commodity traders -- here's the best part. it's all about the fine chart. this is the s&p 500 relative performance to the s&p and once again, going back all the way to the peak, energy peaks and it stops and it stops

and it stops and it got to the penny to this line, and energy has now since the second week in november underperformed the s&p by almost 700 base points. you want to underweigh energy. >> carter, thank you very much for charts there we'll see you back here in a few for "options action. so, steve, you have been the guy that's calling for $65 per barrel crude you have been for a whale now. it was a very bold call at the time what's your take is the down trend in place will we see it for you >> to carter's point, the downtrend is in place. whenever you hear opec say they're going to cut production you want to be a seller of oil they cut production october 5th, largest since the pandemic those two on the chart, spiked to 90s, double, traded down to

70 a peck says they're going to cut protection again you want to sell it with both hands. the problem the spr is going to be replenished around $70. >> that's the gieuidance that we're hearing. >> it encouraging commodity traders to buy ahead of the government buying it at $70. so your risk, if you're going to buy it you can buy it at $70, $75, you can sell it back to the government at $70 when they replenish the spr. even given all that, i think i have a shot at $65. >> all right, $65. tim, if you look at the outperformance -- carter showed it the underperformance versus the s&p but there's been a big divergence in energy stocks versus crude oil they normally track closely, and that's intuitive, but why are we seeing such strength in oil stocks >> i'm one of the guys cart says

is going to get angry by his chart, but i'm not i would agree, energy stocks underperform by 10%. actually, it's outperformed the price of crude by 20% since october 1. the character change between stocks and the understood lying commodity has been notable for six months the outperformance to the s&p is over 100% since the beginning of the year and there's a coup different things going on. one is, i say this all the time, energy equities are run differently. these companies are actually generating free cash flow. they're paying down debt, they're run differently. i'm sure, as sure as steve was at 65, i'm sure the energy waiting will be north of six by the end of next year if not north of 8 what's going on with the energy sector is it's become more investable i think china is going to get a lot higher than people expect. >> courtney, are there names

i think when you talk about the companies most levered to oil prices you think about exploration and production companies, the upstream ones is there still a compelling value piece to be made for energy stocks? oil and exploration production stocks, even after the run that they have had versus oil prices? >> i think tim just brought up the a really good point. china is the largest buyer of crude oil. when is that demand going to come online? but it's a question of when, not if it's going to happen. how early you are is the question, but i think that's going to be a huge opportunity that's going to go into energy here, and especially add to that supply coming down, the dollar weakening. all these things are bullish for energy stocks and they have come in so much more efficient. energy prices are lower, they're still going to be profitable. >> thanks, guys, very much coming up, it's a bird, it's a plane. no, it's our chart of the week stick around to find out what

e-commerce darling is staging a comeback for the ages. but first, the kweb, that china internet etf is climbing higher and you won't believe the crazy move it's had since early november we've got that trade and more when "fast money" returns. check out the dow lagger on r y t.ou what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done. i'm okay.

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wheelcome back to "fast money. the big show, the k web in rally mode chinese stocks closing 6% higher check out the crazy move higher since november rallying 50% in one month's time so should you bet on what we're going to call a beijing boom tim, a merging markets even though i guess it's the world's second biggest economy we still call it an emerging economy. >> it's acted like it. if you look at the headlines out of the government, we said this -- investing in alibaba has been about the attack on the company. if you look across the e-commerce space, it took 10 cent, which i argued was the most interesting tech company. it was an incubator, platform, social network, and they were under the thumbnail of the

government when ant financial did a billion dollars a couple weeks ago, to me, that is the final settlement, the ring kissing investing in china internet is back in. i also think some of these companies have cone what they need to do with u.s. regulators. there's a lot of bustle back and forth in term of getting delisted right now, if you look at the kweb i think you can stay in the trade, because china the only central bank that's easing i think that trade continues to go higher. >> jeff mills, i'd like to get your take on this. because at various points over the last couple of years, the naritive has been around for china investing about the regulatory crackdown the economic effects of the zero covid policy there as things shake out, we talk about, is it investable or not

>> so, the changing of policy landscape has been front of mind for me for a while looking at kweb, anything below 25 times -- help from a timing perspective, but i have been looking elsewhere in the market for signs of what tim is talking about relative to some of the stimulus we know is coming in 2023, some of the easing of zero covid measures the ten-ier in china is bottoming. interesting. certain other clues. resource names, rio, bhp, u.s. steel names, those charts are starting to wake up after a long time, and i think it all might be indicative of what we're seeing in china and some of these changes that are happening at least from a stimulative perspective and economic perspective as we move into 2023 again, i don't think it's all systems go, but i do think you

can stick where the trade at least for the next couple months. >> courtney, what do you think is china a go? >> i have been really optimistic on china and emerging markets and general, and i think you're finally getting good opportunities. the valuation is low, the dollar's weakening, which is a good sign. rather than kweb i'd look at a broader emerging markets fund. ten cents, alibabas, but you're going to get a taiwan semi in there, which is something i think you want to make sure you're invested in as a whole. >> we don't take ourselves to seriously. the night i pointed out china is investable, that was the low that was the day when the government reached out and did not only another zero covid policy but leaned on alibaba, everybody's been rallying ever since. coming up, should you add this name to your shopping cart?

oops, that's a clue. we'll reveal the mystery chart coming up next you're watching "fast money" from the nasdamaetitq rk se here in times square. we're back after this break. [newscast audio] hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or [whistles]... we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap]

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welcome back to "fast money. time to reveal our chart of the week it is in fact etsy, up 17% since monday according to a -- 18% more this holiday season versus last year, and that's not all. the stock rallying more than 60% just over the past month steve grasso, etsy beaten up, but maybe this is viable >> looks like it broke to

downtrend. everyone bet against it dramatically it's having a month, and people that are trading this are also trading shopfy so if you subtract the month to date performance in etsy from its outperformance over shopify, they have the same exact performance, year to date. take one, put it to the other, i know it's won i can, but they're trading them in unison and i think it's broken the downtrend. gained 6 million new buyer on the site people are turning back to -- huge fan of etsy that's why he couldn't be here tonight. it's somewhat viable and a reflection of what retail is doing. >> i bought something on etsy just in the last week or so. time for final trades. let's go around the horn jeff mills. >> i take a look at the turn in biotech. it's sort of interesting definitely noteworthy. ivb on the long side. >> steve grasso? >> meta.

what a bounce. still going. >> stephanie >> taiwan semi i like emerging markets. >> dom, thank you for joining us las vegas sands. check that one out. >>s that does it for us on "fast money. don't go anywhere. we got a market that close out the week with interesting story lines. keep it right here, "options action" is coming up next after this break

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it's friday, and that means it's time for "options action. i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. here's what's coming up. as quickly as one inflation gauge offers hope, another dashes it. the dollar and other proxies caught in a tug of war find out how best to hedge with options. then, tesla stock and its founder also getting yank in the all directions whether you're a musk disciple or not, we'll make a play to take advantage of th