this is one of my favorite projects i've ever worked on. [narrator] money court, where every decision is a business decision. "dear mr. and mrs. wonderful." i've taken your business name. thank goodness we're in a court. we don't have to wait. i'll sue you right now. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche. >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines equities kickoff lower and u.s. session dip after weekly gains with november's non-farm payroll report blows past expectation. and china continues to ease restrictions and hoping to soon

end the zero covid policy. and russia imposing a price cap on the oil and opec is agreeing to hold output steady amid weakening global demand. and vodafone to the stop of stoxx 600 after the ceo with four years at helm agreeing to step down and appointing a new chief executive. good morning the team is back together. welcome back. >> thank you wonderful to be back a week away. i feel like i've forgotten everything. >> luckily we have an hour for you to remember everything starting with data we are getting out of the eurozone. final pmi coming in at -- the

services pmi coming in at 38.5 that was lower than 48.6 the final composite pmi number is exactly the same as the flash at 47.8. worth noting that we are still in contractionary territory. as we talked about the last couple weeks, the numbers are not worse, but weak. i want to point out we had more detail on the german pmi number at 46.1 versus 46.4. the german services number is weaker 46.3 over flash of 46.4. again, it does paint a pretty muted picture for overall european economic activity numbers are not getting worse. >> exactly numbers are not getting worse and not as bad as feared

the line from s&p intelligent says the present down turn is modest with the rate of contraction in november. it looks to set a mere 0.2%. not as bad as a worst-case scenario now in terms of market action, a lot of investors this morning focus on what is happening in china. cities across the country continue to take steps to ease policies authorities in shenzhen dropping the need for the mobile covid tests. malls and markets and restaurants will reopen today and some restrictions have been eased in beijing. hitting at least a six-month low as the economy continues to

struggle under the covid measures the pmi fell from 46.7 to 45.1 we closed up now with a snapshot of key tech names and hang seng overall. we gained 9.3% a lot in focus on the easing of covid restrictions not so much the changes, but direction of travel and the chinese government seems to be now creating a path toward a reopening. now to the casino stocks which caught a strong bid overnight. you have wynn macao up 9%. we see a lot of action over the names of any sense of reopening on the horizon.

and here is the picture for equities in europe this morning, it is a little bit of a muted start to the trading session. w we have a little bit of red on the board for dax and cac 40 overall, fairly muted after the hot report from the u.s. on friday here is the picture for the china sensitive majors in europe it seems as though perhaps the basic resources names reacting to the strong session in china and the news over the weekend of more reopening measures under way. another china sensitive part on the market here. we have red on the board no major moves clearly under performance to the basic resources. let's look at how u.s.

markets fared after the non-farm payroll report hourly earnings came in hot. we rebounded off the lows of the day. the picture was still negative leaning toward negative by the end of the session s&p and nasdaq in the red both .20% weaker as for today, this is how u.s. futures are shaping up we have a negative picture across the board heading into today. we will be taking a look at the u.s. ism services print later today. that is something to watch out for. the u.s. economy posted another strong month of jobs growth employers filled 263,000 jobs in november bigger gain ever economists, but still below october's level. hourly earnings jumped 0.6% compared to the prior month.

unemployment held steady at 3.7% this will add pressure on the fed to keep raising interest rates. a policy that wharton business leader jeremy siegel says is the objective. >> he lost so much purchasing power is something that the fed has to krcrush to me is bad fed policy i don't think it is inflation when they y inflationary we are just getting flashing from the is central bank governor let me bring a few states. i see a 50 basis points increase as a minimum needed at the meeting happening next week. we have to be open to rates moving in restrictive territory for a period of time in 2023 it is premature to be talking

about the end point. there are complex issues in tightening next week, there is an expectation that the ecb will spell out the qt program he is also adding that it could be wrong to prescribe to supply shocks one final comment is increasing share forecast is high rates of inflation over development that closely needs monitoring that sounds hawkish from makhlouf we have someone here who knows about fixed income and can talk about it jim h joining us so that starts withse llensky let's star commentary out there that'st with the genl reached peak inflation f inflation environment. what does this do to the central bank hiking picture going forward?

>> it is not enough evidence for them to stop yet for them, inflation, inflation, inflation has been the one, two and three priorities it is important to see that in the u.s. it is shy away from the eurozone look at what is happening monthly and you can see the pace of inflation has actually slowed .3 month on month in the last report. if you get .3 or .4, that is arguing for inflation to already perhaps be running at 4% or 5% it has peaked. i don't think there is any question in the u.s. it has peaked i think that does give the fed some cover i think the jobs report was a little bit of a fly in the ointment there they were looking for softening in labor that is the area they are still concerned about with inflationary pressure. you did not get that in the last

report >> i want to ask about overtightening you have an excellent statement. >> taking tips for how to make -- >> and hopefully how central bankers can get the recipe just right. share with viewers >> i hope i'm a better investor and cook i can't make a good beschemele sauce. those are two classic indicators it doesn't have the desired effect on the met icks you tighten more you add more and more ingredients. as some point, you find you have overdone it. there's no turning back. i suspect the fed is already there. it is just when you hung your credibility on inflation or

inflation fighting and in the ecb case, it is not just credibility. it is the mandate. they don't have much of a choice i think they have overdone it. i think reralize that it is a risk they have to take the issue is is it a hard landing or soft landing? i think we will see that in the numbers going forward. >> really interesting. let's see how it translates to fixed income markets we rallied about 50 to 70 basis points after does this continue >> i think it does with high quality fixed income i include sovereign bonds and rates in that category what you have is a real correction from distorted markets after several years of distorting markets, central banks stepped back and we had to

find a buyer we effectively had a bond market crash. for me, as you see inflation begin to taper off, as you see central banks get more friendly, what i also see is global excess savings is continued to be robust the demand for bonds will move further. markets can price in a lot of the information that people think might unfold in the next 12 months. i think a lot of the easy money in the bond market rally is done >> if tying what is happening in the real economy and we see inflation peak in 2023 and we see central banks become more friendly, will the damage already have been done to the economy? >> i think so.

one of the puzzles of the last year was the huge disconnect with the real economy and what interest rates did i think it is the distorted starting point that explains that for me, you have seen a lot of damages in the housing market. the interest rates sensitive sectors have softened. the problem is they will not recover quickly. number two, the lead indicators of many other things as housing picks up, you get pending on durables and furniture. when it goes in reverse, it leads to year on year declines you see that with the consumption numbers. we get fooled into looking at nominal terms year on year they are down in real terms. people are spending less.

>> how does credit perform in the environment? you seem to have a negative outlook for the u.s. economy and fixed income has moved so far. you said one needs to be more discerning about where they are inve investing. how does it translate to credit? >> credit to me is the least rosy of the fixed income i said high quality fixed income should do well investment grade is well positioned what is likely to lead to def default is a real slowdown what you have is a real slowdown, but not nominal slowdown we need to remember debt and earnings and cash flow is nom nominal. if negative real growth is a problem, the nominal should prevent the debt problems and

systemic pressure. high yield, those areas sensitive to economic growth, will likely be in a bit of trouble. it is more protected. >> what about from the regional perspective with europe versus u.s. europe is in a more dire position >> yes, i think europe looks more prime for recession it is also tail risk with the central mandate with inflation i don't see inflation getting anything close to target next year that will be a challenge for the ecb. i think tightening will stop in q1 for the fed, but may not for the ecb. i think there are tail risks with the energy chriss that we don't have a good handle on. i would still be cautious just

because we're in a bear market for credit when you are in a bear market, avoid those unnecessary risks. i still prefer other regions of the globe. including amd. >> all right plenty of food for thought thank you for joining us >> excellent note to end on. jim, global head of fixed income at janus and vodafone's ceo will step down for the board to build on the company's strengths. the comhief financial officer wl step into the role as interim chief executive. and mbs is looking to back credit suisse's first boston additional financing could come

from u.s. investors, including former barclays chief executive. this is a report from the holding company. credit suisse will release the plan on february 9th you see the bounce in the credit suisse stock today probably welcome for any credit suisse investors. and nissan and renault is looking to miss the next deal annou announcement also coming up on the show, macron wraps up the state visit to the u.s. returning to the d downgraded credit joutlk. wl scs an after this break one mi n businesses

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where ever you water your dreams

welcome back to "street signs. eu will tweak rules to ensure companies are not lured to the u.s. by the president biden $600 billion climate package. that is according to the eu president who says they must make the risk easier meanwhile, eu internal commissioner has pulled out of the trade and technology summit saying the event devotes little time to address the european concerns. despite what president biden called the most aggressive action the country has taken on climate, europe is not giving up the race >> that's why it is critical that the technology competition with the eu and the united states is a race to the top for our industries on both sides of the atlantic

and i'm confident that europe is in a strong position to compete on global markets and develop the clean technologies of tomorrow now, will this be enough to keep up the clean tech race yes, if we are competing on a level playing field. so, we must take action to re-balance the playing field where the i.r.a. and other measures create distortions. rate mhikes are good news fo the banking system and it is too soon to talk about the rates and the central bank willdecide meeting by meeting this is after the ecb should raise by 50 basis point this month and expects rate hikes to continue after the ecb

mid-december meeting, but at lower pace with inflation peaking in the first half of 2023 remember, we just had comments from the ecb irish governor saying he thinks 50 basis points would be the minimum next week it is shaping up to be quite the interesting meeting. else's where, s&p global downgraded the outlookfr france as increased budget risks amid the economic slowdown the rating agency revised the french growth forecast to 0.2% next year which is down substantially from 1.7%. charlotte joins us around the desk really interesting to see s&p downgrade outlook for france i remember the budget pushed through and macron had to resort to the constitutional article 49.3 to get it through and now the knock-on effects with the

deficit. >> it is a concern which is growing among economists and appears the latest for france to negative joining fitch and moody's on friday kept it to stable there is a concern of prolonged economic slowdown in france. there is a particular measure with energy. france is 4% which has heavy impact on the country's budget the deficit will go to 15% from january. this will roll back some of the support measures it echos what we heard from the imf a few days ago saying they need to do this in a more targeted way going forward france should consolidate faster we had the target from the government and the vote on the budget for 2023. they are looking at a deficit of

5% in 2023 they are targeting 3% by 2027. we hear from economies that it should go quicker to reach that target. >> when it comes to france's energy are support, which has been supportive relative to other countries. now with the prospect of them rolling back support measures, how is the public feeling and likely to react? we know in the past the french public have been resistant to the roll back alongs lines >> that price cap has meant the inflation in france is the lowest in the eurozone we have seen protests and strikes asking for pay hikes, et cetera this is going up to 15% in january. there is concern that france, while inflation has stabilized in october and november, but it will pick up again in early 2023 the peak is yet to come. you command this, higher energy prices fit into this and some companies will have energy costs

go up. this could make a toxic mix. that's where we will so discontent building up and the pension reform on the horizon which is toxic and difficult for the french government to start to negotiate and covid hit and it was delayed they want to bring it back on the table. a lot of the companies say for re-balancing needs to be done. it is very difficult to be done. it would be certainly add to discontent in 2023. >> it is almost the worst of both worlds. it is costly to subsidize. it will not last forever they have to start reining in spending they are feeling pressure on the spending if you look at the fiscal forecast, they are above 3%. you are looking at the second largest economy in the eurozone

who will need a reform of the fiscal rules we talk about >> they have gone under the 3% line before. with the first mandate, they have done before covid they were able to put reforms in place and modernize the economy. there was the crisis and the very traumatized by this it started with the energy are costs going up they learned the lesson there. that's why after the covid crisis and showered the economy with support measures because they are worried what it means socially they have to rebalance the books. they said the government is doing okay and they have the right recipe it is working. the economy growing at 2.6% this year they will be positive next year. we know what we are doing. it is working. some economies seem to disagree. >> a tough balancing act for every european country

france especially. charlotte, thank you for joining us for that overview coming up on the program, opec plus holds steady and western sanctions on russian oil kick in today. we dig into the crude complex on the other side of the break. it's hard to run a business on your own. with shopify, you have everything you need to setup your online store, to connect with customers, and to bring your dream business to life. because when we work together, the future is bright. these days, your customers are not just down the hall. they're all over the world. so cute. it doesn't have to be lonely at the top. join the millions to finding success on their own terms. start your journey with a free trial today.

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the people's market news personal finance and money stories that matter. gaining the upper gums luscious my nose now welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. these are your headlines >> european equities kick off the week lower u.s. futures dip after wall street posts back-to-back weekly gains at non-farm payroll report blows past expectation. stocks in china cash a bid as they continue to ease covid restrictions raising hope beijing will end zero covid policies. and a price cap on oil set to come into force today while opec and allies agree to hold output steady amid weakening global demand. and vodafone at the top of the stoxx 600 as the chief

executive is stepping down after four years with group cfo set to take over as chief executive we have some final services numbers coming through the pmi for the uk november final services pmi at 48.8 that was in line with the flash. the compposite pmi is a touch softer and this is the toughest spell the economy has faced since the global crisis excluding the height of the pandemic now hitting the lowest level since january of 2021 which is when the uk was in the lockdown. we give you a sense of the state of things that there were

reports of hiring freezes and non replacement as companies grew concerns over cost. and that is the uk picture for november according to the latest pmi. joumanna. let's look at european markets. chinese report authorities repos there are easing covid restrictions we see a bounce today. overall, you see the picture is pretty mixed with the ftse 100 trading in the green the swiss index as well. everything else in the red we had the final pmi numbers come out pretty much in line with the flash a smidge lower at 0.1 lower. it does point to are contraction. not massive, but tells you europe is in the middle or has

already started recession. something to keep in mind. this is the picture. mixed. we are focused on the commodities complex not just with the link to china, but the price cap on seaborne russian oil. switching to fx. the dollar is weaker against the dollar back over 105.50 the dollar/yen we are back from the 140 a week ago. the pound dipping at 122.73. overall, the picture is one of dollar weakness. one specific currency i want to draw attention to is the remembi. we are to the down side again as there is some optimism expressed about the possibility of

chinaingchwhchina moving away from zero covid policies. the u.s. market is looking to open up in the red. we will watch out for the ism services number to come out of the u.s. let's turn to the energy story. opec plus is ready to meet at anytime and take immediate measures to support global oil markets after deciding to hold steady in the online meeting on sunday, the move locks in the 2 million barrel per day cut the group will next meet in february herman wang said the decision to hold steady may have been made to avoid political tensions with the u.s. >> you see from opec plus, they

are pro-active they came out with 2 million barrel a day cut to get ahead of the recession and weak chinese demand conditions are still there the same uncertainty we saw in october is still there this time, though, i guess they want to avoid the geopolitical fight with the u.s. after the october meeting. you talked about that earlier. what we are seeing is that the market is just so hazy right now. >> angelina valdina from the fitch group is joining us now. let me pick up where herman wang left off talking to our colleagues this morning. the decision to hold steady. do you agree it was motivated by the backlash from the u.s. in october or was it more about the g7 oil price cap and waiting to see the impact of that might be? >> thank you for your question

it is a great question i believe the opec plus will continue to balance the supply and demand in the oil market on the demand side, there is obviously potential pressure from the global economic down turn there is a big uncertainty for the chinese policy in respect to the zero covid policy and how it pans out obviously, there would be a huge boost for commodities. however, zero covid remains in place with technical adjustments, they need the downward pressure on the oil side on the supply side, there is an embargo of the seaborne russian oil that goes into effect today and the measures with the price with the russian oil price cap which remains to be seen if it will be effective and how much is taken off the market. so, from this perspective, it is a balanced decision from the

opec plus just to make sure the market remains in balance. >> very interesting answer there are three factors at play here in a big way. the china story, the g7 price cap and the ban in europe today. let's dive into the angle with the oil price. what is priced into oil markets at the moment with rregards to the reopening? is this a surprise to the traders in the oil space >> obviously in terms of the zero covid policy, it is difficult to predict how it will pan out and it is probably an assumption it will be eased. it remains to be seen and it might be a slow one with the covid easing or full eesasing of the policy

the important thing is the reaction of the commodities markets. if there are changes to the policy, but it remains in place, then the current pressure on the demand because it will coincide with the global economic slowdown if there is a significant easing of the policy, then obviously it provides a strong support to oil prices and actually the commodities. >> angelina, i want to turn to the here and now that is the price cap. the price cap that has now emerged on seaborne rush and oil set at $60. the number is high considering where russian oil is sold on the market people are saying it is sold at $57. as of now, it shouldn't have a huge economic impact what is the expectation as to how the economic impact may evolve in the coming months? >> well, the price cap of 60 is

roughly in line where oil is currently trading. we need to look at it in conjunction with the embargo of the russian export we already have seen the reduction in the export of the russian oil which is 7% and russia was able to move. the introduction of the embargo and cap of the price will not remove all of the volumes. some of them will find their way to the markets to the countries i mentioned. having said, that it will have an impact on the market. we believe the russian export will fall by the end of next year it is not a significant amount because the spare capacity of opec plus is 4 million barrels a day and that includes iran and russia it may introduce tightening to

the market. >> really interesting to put numbers on it. again, it goes back to what julianna asked about the potential china reopening. that could tip or swing the inventory toward extra demand situation. again, going back to the russian oil price cap. it seems to me that a lot of the onus is on the shippers to ensure that no oil that is transported out of russia is sold at a price more than $60. how likely is it that these shippers s adhere >> that is a good question there is a plan to reduce the price gap. it will be going through the ban on financing and insurance on the sales and transportation it remains to be seen how it will be enforced there is a little bit of uncertainty for stability. >> angelina, when it comes to

russia's response to the g7 price cap? do you see them playing ball i wonder down the line how they will respond >> we heard and seen some statements, but the element is russian oil is traded at the discount the $60 discount is in line with that price the second point is russian halted the volumes of the supplies to europe we expect that probably next year there will be russian gas coming to europe that means a certain impact on the economy and the russian budget because oil and gas experts provide cash flows i suppose we need to consider those factors together

>> angeangelina, thank you for joining us on "street signs. we appreciate your insight very interesting to hear your perspective on the oil market. angelina with the fitch group. coming up on "street signs." russia builds up a fleet of oil tankers as western oil sanctions come into effect we will have more on the story in a few moments ore of

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the incoherent article shark tank sunday to thursday at seven eastern welcome back to "street signs. russia will not sell oil to those with a price cap moscow is ready to cut production if necessary. the $60 cap proposed by countries with australia and the eu goes into effect today. crude delivery for northwest europe has traded under that level. ukraine president volodymyr zelenskyy said the cap isn't enough to deter the russian invasion and it is a matter of time before stronger actions are

needed we have brian sullivan joining us now from brussels brian, it is bis great to have u this side of the pond. tell us a little bit more about what russia is planning to do to get around the oil sanctions >> reporter: well, i think -- thanks for having me on. this is a fascinating story. we have been working on this for two weeks. there was a story in the financial times over the weekend as well talking about the same thing. we received a document about a week ago and the document was from a ship broker we trusted and confirmed the data it lays out the old ships, super tanker an old tanker is not 40 years old. it could be 12 years old they get beat up in the saltwater high seas. it showed names of ships, size and origin and then it said inn disclosed buyer. we talked to people in the industry and they said that is unusual. usually a buyer is listed.

is this buyer russia china? somebody else? we don't know. it is a meurky dindustry there has been a high number of sales of the super tankers to get around the sanction that you talked about in the price caps, you have your own ship you don't need to insure a ship if you have your own ship which you self insure. are these used purely to get around the sanctions we don't know. we talked about david wech he tracks ship borne crude he confirms this is an unusual number of sale activity for the old ships. listen >> the level of activity is unusual. also the market circumstances are unusual and what it is like for the preparation going on and it is very unlikely to be

sufficient to allow russia to export all of the oil down the line >> reporter: all right will we need -- will russia need the ships or have enough ships to get around sanctions? no they need hundreds of the super tankers. especially different sizes you need all different to go around al rrussia it looks like they are building a secret navy. this raises the risk of environmental disaster as well many ships we looked at should be going to the scrap yard instead look to be back on the high seas in winter and rough weather. this is a really extreme move. >> so interesting to see all of that happening brian, also when you put in the context of the environmental impact and insurance perspective. you have to think the other

buyers out there they want to know the oil transported out of russia is insured. do you have indication for how the countries feel about going directly about the dark vessel route knowing the international insurers may not be present or participating? >> reporter: i think i do. i heard your previous interview before the commercial break. you asked a spot-on question, joumanna, will it work we don't know. goldman sachs is not sure this will work in part because these are self reported regulations. self reporting and saying okay we are not using tier 2 or tier 3. this is not russian oil. how do you enforce this mechanism? if you buy $100 million of crude shipment, you want to make sure it gets to port and you get paid

and not sink and out an environmental disaster and not insured for it how do they insure the price cap and monitor which are on this will be critical and you know china and russia and india -- these are wealthy nations. what is stopping them from self insuring the crude oil shipments? we are covering this are all day for cnbc u.s. as well. we talked to a number of people who think this $60 price cap. let's say you are india. you buy extra russian oil at $60. oil you don't need you turn around and re-sell it or transfer the ship back to europe and sell it for $100 a barrel because europe is going to buy it at any price if they really need it india now wins and russia still sells oil. this is day one of the new

energy economy >> brian, to your point, there are many ways to work around this let's not forget the embargo on refined products kicks in in february great to have you in europe. lovely to chat about oil looking forward to the coverage this week as well. we will be speaking to the euro group president paschal donohoe at 11:20 cet well, ftx founder sam bankman-fried says he cannot account for what happened to billions of dollars ftx users sent to alameda. in an interview with the wall street journal, he said customers made $5 billion in deposits to alameda to fund ftx

accounts those funds are now gone sam bankman-fried says he had little insight into the alameda working despite owning 90% of the trading firm >> sam bankman-fried says he will testify before congress once he has finished learning and reviewing what happened at his collapsed exchange the house finance committee has invited him to a hearing next tuesday, but he says that may be too soon. genesis and digital currency owes gemini $900 million as the ftx collapse runs through the industry now trying to recover the funds. last month, gemini halted funds to lend coins. let's go back to check in on

europe markets the picture is mixed and most leaning red. we have dax down .30%. cac down .10%. we are seeing a bounce in basic resources. we spoke earlier on the show on expectations of easing of covid restrictions coming from china that is giving a boost to the complex. far away from the full reopening. the fact that chinese authorities are moving in that direction has been interpreted as positive. macro data showing the final eurozone pmi coming in with the flash estimate the economy is in contract territory, but not getting worse. that is worth noting we had comments from the ecb officials ahead of the meeting next week. will they go 50 or 75? we will find out the signs are the policymakers

are sounding hawkish this is the u.s. complex leaning toward negative. all three majors opening in the negative territory markets will have more data this week with november ism today and services pmi out later today as well as factory orders we have jobless claims on thursday followed by november ppi and the december consumer sentiment on friday. it feels like it is quiet before the next week which is a big one. we have fed ecb and the bank of england. signs along the way to watch out for. >> and the energy ministers meeting in brussels on the 13th. will we get the progress on the european wide gas cap? that proposal arrived dead on arrival. so far, no sign we will get agreement. we will see if they do just to throw this fact out there.

last week, stoxx 600 advanced 0.6% strong run for equities. >> youhe show the years on economic would not think given the dp gloom and doom on the show it has been steadily climbing back again i guess this is what happens when something gets so oversold, there was a lot of value especially for the international community with the euro trading. now we bounced >> absolutely. a bit of a christmas gift. we will see if it continues the last couple weeks of the year. that is it for "street signs." i'm julianna tatelbaum. >> i'm joumanna bercetche. "worldwide exchange" is coming up next.

it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is the top "five@5. stocks in the red after the friday's blowout jobs report investors are edge head of the final decision of 2022 china stocks are surging overnight as beijing signals a covid zero policy shift in the wake of the unrest. and the cartel boss said any move in the russian price cap and european union import ban. elon musk in the