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tv   Tech Check  CNBC  December 5, 2022 11:00am-12:00pm EST

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though, correct? >> yeah. six being worked on right now and jefferies put a note out on this, as well, b-21 is expected to deliver 13% to overall north ropp sales come 2025 and talking about a 22% kager in term was growth and it it speaks to northrop's strength on the top line. >> got it. that will do it for us on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts right now. >> good monday morning and i'm carl quintanilla with deidre bossa and jon fort t. it has accelerated timeliness outside of china one wall street firm says amazon could fall 45% from here given its exposure to inflationary cost headwinds and a potential impact from slowing consumption. stocks are down by that amount this year and we'll talk to the
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analyst behind that call and finally the crypto contagion continues and circle going public via spac. >> we'll start with apple and reports that it has plans to accelerate a shift which would see production move out of china and that comes amid continued covid lockdowns which has spurred protests across the country. several weeks ago, the biggest assembler of iphones protesting about unsafe working conditions. a time line for that move still extremely uncertain. for more let's bring in steve kovac and seema modi replacing it is no small feat. there's a reason china is there in the first place and it will not happen overnight it could take years, potentially. >> apple is heavily reliant on
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china, deirdre, and what we are starting to see this year and seema will talk about this in a minute, and shift over in a more significant way to india whereas the last generation of iphones, for example, they didn't start making that generation until this year and then this time, and this cycle, the 14 cycle they started manufacturing in india pretty much right away and you can already see on the surface this acceleration plans to diversify outside of china. on top of that we are seeing them potentially diversify their chips. tomorrow tsnc is holding a big event with president biden and tim cook from apple will be there, as well where they'll open this new factory in arizona where apple will be purchasing some of the chips outside of the main plant in taiwan so we're seeing all of these little hints and pockets, deirdre, of apple making moves to diversify and their fate and destiny in the near-term is tied to china and their decisions are on these covid policies.
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>> seema, india has its own political headwinds and risks and apple has been doing some assembly there for several years now. how quickly do you think a rampup in that move could come >> i think it takes tom, john. what i see from a senior source close to the government is that india is trying to bring some of apple's ipad production to the country that's currently being done in china. as steve was just sharing, apple or india, rather, is producing the lower cost iphone models for a couple of years now and earlier this year, apple began producing the iphone 14 and 10% of iphones are manufactured in india, although gene munster on luke ventures and it will take about five years to get to 35% and part of the issue, john is getting highly skilled labor, engineers and i.t. professionals
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and trained and specialized so if this ipad production will come to india and it will certainly take time and a lot of investment in high-skilled labor. >> talk about turning a battle ship here, steve, one of the points that the journal article makes is even if they have to stay in china, at least apple is trying to diverse fight suppliers within that country. >> that's right. >> they're moving to different regions and we saw this during earlier this year, too, where they shifted their supply chain to avoid this lockdown and it was more interest interesting in chang zhu, and the warnings from apple now where they'll have less supply than anticipated especially among the pro line and look, it's also just about moving some of the smallest products and not just iphones, but things like air pods in an
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increasing manner to malaysia or vietnam for those smaller accessory products, let's call them >> seema, apple isn't the only company that's losing confidence in china after beijing's crackdown on the tech sector and a number of issues, so it's not the only one potentially looking at india and one of the challenges there that you just talked about is some of those government coordination challenges do you think that there will be a bigger push in india especially when you're seeing the american companies looking to diversify out of china. >> it's a great point, deirdre, and i can dell you that india sees the opportunity given to engage more with silicon valleys and beyond apple to say india will be a great place to manufacture, however, when it comes to making that reality, it takes time not only because of a lack of skilled labor, but investment and access to good
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water for these chips plans, you need good water and that isn't the case in a country like india. it's possible, but it takes a lot of time and that's why as more companies look to diversify, which is doing a lot to improve its manufacturing base, but it takes a lot of time and having worked there i can tell you that getting access to land permits and it has certainly improved over the last five to seven years and if india wants to make this a reality it's got to improve that >> yeah. tim cook is a master at cutting through red tape so we'll see how it works there, as well. seema, steve, thank you. now take a look at snowflake and ibm. diverging by more than 85% over the last 12 months, snowflake hit an all-time high of just 400 bucks a share last november. 12 months ago, both company his market caps around $100 billion.
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take a look at the current market value ibm is at 134 billion and snowflake is 35, and enterprise software and enterprise tech in 2022, but more important, carl, is what happens next not sure what's going to happen in '23, but it's probably not going to be the same as 22 >>. >> well, jon, the reason i like contrasting them and ibm is extremely buzzy and an old legacy name that has outperformed and we're looking at a ten-year of ibm which is also helpful and hasn't created a lot of value over that timeframe and your question is good what happens next is that the legacy plays that are going to continue to update and do better than the buzzy snowflakes of the world, we'll see, continuing this conversation and our next guest pointing out and if you
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have a forecast for 2023 it started to come down for the first time in two years and he believes the recession next year and one area particularly set to take a hit, cloud computing and software thanks to a slowdown in consumer spending and the tech sector here to discuss dan niles, dan, good morning to you. pleased you could be with us what you're saying essentially is that things could get uglier this year and even with the hyperscalers like amazon, google and microsoft. >> absolutely. because if you bfrng where we were so everybody need to buy software, cloud-computing resources and make sure the business survives and everyone is going out and we're going on vacation, et cetera and the sale of goods is slowing down as people consume more services and so now you need less cloud computing resources.
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you're firing people so you need less consumption-based software and you saw that with sales force, right when they reported they took down for the next quarter of the current remaining performance which is a fancy way of saying what's the momentum of your business people are thinking that will grow 11% and they guided to serve and they're the big bellwether in the space. so i think as companies set their budgets for next year, they go -- we need less cloud computing resources, et cetera, next year is where you see the issues in enterprise and 2022 has been about a slowdown in consumer goods and things like amazon or zoom or peloton, et cetera >> investors have been trying to price that in and you've seen those multiples come down than the market is anticipating right now. you can see the growth rate coming into the high teens, is
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that right >> yeah. if you think about what they had to say, right? amazon everyone thinks of as a retail company, and i think they generated 5 billion from amazon web services last quarter in operating income and the entire company to 2.5 billion so it's really amazon web services that drives the multiple for that company and you saw them miss the quarter when they reported and then they said exiting the quarter, revenues were growing at 25% in amazon web services and i think you'll see that number get into the teens next year by the way, the mid-20% growth rate is the slowest since 2014 so you're going to see things continue to come in there, and i think that's the issue these are consumption-based models and consumption is slowing down for internet-based services >> just to get you on the broader markets, it's almost become comical how consensus the year-end strength is whether it's positioning or buybacks
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it doesn't sound like you have too much to quibble with it, though >> no. if you look at our year-end rally, we're getting it. i think you're going to see a rally between here and christmas because you do have a lot of positives in the sense that you have the fear of missing out now. people are underexposed. china, finally after the social unrest they have a week ago is getting off this covid policy with brand demand and so i think you'll see this rally. the problem is you'll get to the end of this year and you'll report numbers and you'll enter a preannouncement period and that's when things get ugly. so we still believe that when you get this bear market rally and running its last gasp that you can retest or break to new lows in 2023, and it's starting
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since march and it's starting to affect demand and slowing things down so our view is no different and this is another bear market rally and try to take advantage of that and things are going pretty well. >> dan, do you still broadly hate growth tech and software? because i'm noting over the past few days samsara, ticker iot, does a lot of sensors and tracking of logistics and inventory and smart sheet did well with delivering quick value and into it, a bigger name focused on small and medium business and hanging in there quite well and it seems like the software that people continue to need to solve near-term problems even in a downturn continues to do well. is it cheap here or no >> yeah. i mean, here's the thing you need to think about. most companies have a calendar
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year and specifical year end so every cfo is sitting down and in general everyone i talk to is trying to figure out how to cut expenses because they have less employees in 2023 than initially thought and the revenues are growing small, if you focus on the small data points, and you look at amazon web services and what are the biggest companies in the world and what their space is doing and they'll manage to buck the trend and the thing is you'll get these surprise disappointments and oh, my god, the security software and there's weakness in there and you saw it last week with some of the reportses and you lose 20% to 30% in a day so that's what we're trying to stay away from and the falling knifes that we're trying to catch is stuff where i go, you know what? baseball, yeah, the numbers may be okay, but i can match that up with the ruler take two, the numbers got
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annihilated after they guided. yeah, that might be low enough and i can short some other names against that as well in tech p, in software where i have the high multiples that are consumption based. that's what we're trying to do and i am back down to adding more shorts as the market goes higher because the long game is we're going to enter into a recession next year and we think that it will be harder than people think and they're 20 times on the s&p when cpi is beef 3% the usual is over a 40-year and the fear of missingous and we should get into 2% or 3%.
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>> dan niles, thank you very much for being with us we'll talk to you again soon >> appreciate it >> still to come this hour, tesla falling this morning as it cuts production in china according to some reports. details when "tech check" comes back stay stay with us.
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they continue to trade in the red this morning down more than 4.5% and the ev maker was the biggest laggard on both the s&p 500 and the nasdaq it is still leading the nasdaq 100 lower at this hour tesla plans to cut its december model y output numbers and the shanghai plant by more than 20% versus november. last month it saw the highest monthly sales since opening that shanghai factory in 2020 year to date, down nearly 50%. let's turn to tech layoffs it's been a cheap as we've been following as new companies announce new cuts this week.
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al f al alphabet and he has a great piece called why silicon valley didn't anticipate the covid countdown. good to have you. >> one of the pieces is to look at the mindset that was pretty uniform in the valley when things were flush, right >> exactly i was astonished that the companies predicted that the covid behavior changes would last forever and once they go to restaurants and hang out with your friends in restaurants and at home, why did all of them build as if that would last forever and what i found was the thing is if you don't plan as if that would last forever and it does, you're in deep trouble it went after the market even a 10%, 20% chance because the risk is you either lose the market or you have to do what they're doing now which is cut back and they would rather do the cutbacks >> so you don't think they were caught completely blindsided
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this was a big pull forward and you have to take that chance exactly. it was a calculated move they understood that the worst-case scenario was a pullback their company still has the market who is the market and you potentially lose the game and that's not acceptable for these companies. >> alex, it feels like everyone is pulling back except for alphabet and we spent a lot of t time talking about google's workforce and they'll have to ultimately cut, it's interesting it looked at its workforce and just 5% of its employees generated the surge. they've been hiring like crazy in cloud they are number third by a long shot can they a ffford to cut h headcount. if they can't, where do they cut? >> i think every company can cut head count they've done so much hiring there's always room to cut i would say we've probably only seen the very beginning of this
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cutting. if you look at meta, it was 48,000 people before the pandemic and now it's cutting down 10,000 and it's similar >> what is sundar pachai waiting for? >> i think -- why do you cut you cut in a dip and you have to show cost-cutting in a market and they're waiting to see we're not going to go into such a deep recession and they can potentially make those changes and maybe the fed tails off with the rate raises and you're okay, but i don't think that's going to be sustainable and to 23, all of these companies are being hesitant and eventually those cuts will have to come >> andy jassy of amazon has been asked several times the last couple of weeks whether he regrets that buildout and he sort of sliced it up a bit, right? he talked about the hardware and the infrastructure warehouse element and the labor, you could have been more discerning, but i
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wonder you think that view colors their hiring plans over the next five to ten years are they going to be more careful next time? >> i don't think jassy has many regrets. if you do a layoff, you will say i made some mistakes i shouldn't have and amazon will hire 150,000 people through the holiday season and they are seeing some shifts and it's not as big as it used to be and we've had the biggest cyber monday that they've had in history and they want to win that way and there will be these labor contracts for sure, but the slowdown and with amazon i still see them putting their foot on the gas pedal. >> external dynamics, work from home, and san francisco, for example, have changes and do you think that is right now? >> companies are starting to say we want to take control back from the worker and we had a
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long time where the worker was effectively in charge. if you didn't want to work in the office you didn't have to work on the office and they were put putting unen rreasonable demandd the employers are taking that power back and it's manipulative and they hold this threat of layoffs and cutbacks off and they say now you'll be in the office three, four, five days a week and you'll be doing what we want and by the way, those perks are gone and the raises are less than what they used to be and they use wall street as anec kus. they're trying to wrest control from the worker and they have the money and they're able to do it it's not the way it used to be. >> it's a far cry from some of the benefits and the perks they were throwing -- not just the hiring itself, but the perks great piece, alex. >> jon >> up next, jefferies says
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as we head to another quick programming break, scan the qr code to join the cnbc financial summit tomorrow december 6th we'll talk about market turmoil, inflation risks and the macro economic headwinds while providing recession-proofing strategies for all investors "tech check" will be right back.
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♪ ♪ welcome back to "tech check. i'm bertha coombs. here is your cnbc update at this hour the ism services number is driving the markets lower this morning. the index posted a 66.5% reading topping wall street's estimate by almost 3%, at least three percentage points and that figure also represents an increase from october which is fueling concerns that the fed will continue hiking rates oil prices are slightly higher after opec plus held their output target steady the organization agreed to stick to their october plan to cut output by $2 million barrels per day through all of 2023, this as a european union ban and a b-7 price cap on russian crude oil kicks in today
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iphone maker foxconn reporting a slump in revenue after continued unrest at its china plant. the world's largest contract electronics maker reported the sharp drop in november as the company struggles to contain a covid outbreak among its workers. foxconn said the fall was due to, quote, production gradually entering off-peak seasonality and a portion of shipments being impacted by the pandemic. >> and is that the season for producing iphones? >> you need to have them by now if you have people buying them in stores, so in a way it is, bertha, thanks. >> turning back to big tech. who has the furth toast fall in a bear case scenario according to our next guest, amazon joining with a buy rating and a $135 target on the stock let ate bring in jefferies
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analyst brent bill brent, this is interesting you're saying amazon could fall a lot further, but meta may have bottomed both of these seem to have businesses, growth businesses that are being affected by other things that they want to do. in amazon's case, the cloud business is what's providing a lot of the profit and the retail business is, you know, is a drag in meta's case, the metaverse is a drag on social why is amazon the worst bet? >> hey, jon. thanks for having me i'd say we -- our clients asked us to cover the names in tech and what we came up effectively, most of the numbers have been cut pretty hard from meta. as mark zuckerberg said, a lot of investments in the metaverse are misfounded in the sense that they're not completely defocused
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on social and the numbers have been hit pretty hard and some of the expectations are massively down for amazon, i think we see a situation if the u.s. consumer continues to decline, if you continue to see right now amazon has the toughest comp of the year in backlog and revenue growth, that will continue to decelerate, so we like these names over the long haul what we're trying to do is show where is the most sensitivity and still we see amazon when you look at their actual retail component and the distribution, that piece still has a considerable amount of expense and demand could dry up again for amazon in the u.s. >> i keep hearing about weakness in the advertising market. nbc universal's jeff shell just mentioning that again today. in the bear case where perhaps even facebook is affected by that and continues to spend on
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upon capex and the metaverse, it doesn't have room to fall, do you think? >> it still has room to fall and we're doing an analysis of what if and the what if has been severe on amazon in the short term again, we're talking super bearish scenario this isn't the base case, and if the market continues to get worse. we're trying to look at both perspectives and this was a bear focus piece. this isn't our current piece, but when we look again, we think again, there are multiple things in amazon including the ad business that could be under duress and would be under duress in a tougher environment so it's a what if. again, we're very bullish about the prospects for amazon and they're the $800-pound gorilla, any they're so far beyond everyone else. >> right that doesn't mean that there could be down side o period.
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i know you many the four mrega caps that we're talkinging about. we just spoke in the beginning of the show on dan niles who were more bearish and he pointeded to further vulnerability and aws could so mid-teen growth next year. what do you think holds them up especially the cloud units at the mega-caps, if you think that spending is going to deagree next year. >> we don't disagree with the technical cuts and we continue to see pressure for consumers. so we agree with the bearish cult these sdpifing and they outperformed massively, for a
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decade so what i think you have to look at is if your duration is the next six months, yeah. it's not good. no question. if your duration is three years and you're seeing how bad the sentiment is, everyone's in energy and you're continuing to see again, our call volume has dropped precipitously and again, it's just that no one needs to feel they do anything until they get the numbers reset in the first half of '23 and what's the shape of jefferies' forecast in next year? that could last quarters we don't know the shape of that recession yet. so tactically, earn is holding out and they're on the sidelines and they don't want to get out on the field yet so our view, we are trying to take a short term view tactically where things are tough and long term, if you look at the way these stocks behave
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out of the last recession, last pullback you saw material outperformance because where is the energy trader going to go i'm not the energy guy, but it goes up every day. at some point, right we'll see an inversion trade where money will come out of energy and health care and other sectors back to tech we don't think that time has come and what we're doing is the what if 16 ars and and we think it's where tech investors will start to look at '24 numbers and hopefully they're low enough and we start to see a reacceleration and that hasn't come yet we're tactically bearish in the short term >> it will be an interesting term when it comes if you think in any way, some of the actions they're taking on expense are out of their lane and are there cutbacks that you think are too cautious or investments that you think are too ambitious? >> it's too cautious 13% head count increase in the
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next quarter with the environment we're in tech has done an awful job getting in front of this economic storm they haven't bought the coats and the gas. they've just -- they think they're not going to feel it, and so these companies have to get in front of them, and i think many of your guests that have been on and talked about this, they're not in front of it and they still have to make the appropriate cuts amazon has to do more. they haven't been as proactive as they could be, and i think ultimately, you're going to see bigger and stronger actions in q1 of '23. we talk about being the black eyes quarter i think it will still be pretty gnarly in the short term and we still have a lot to come in that perspective and they have to make a more proactive cut and that's again, across the board and that is not an amazon comment and that's a comment for salesforce.com and they have to make stronger cuts >> all right
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brent thill from jefferies, thank you. >> thank you a little over two hours into trading and let's check in with kristina partsinevelos >> hi, carl. most people have checked out and no one here at cnbc, but the nasdaq is currently tracking for its worst month since the great financial recession in 2008 and it would need quite a wild ride upward to break that stat. take a look at the dow it's down only about 6% year to date over the nasdaq, and the widest since 2000 and there was no change out of opec plus and beijing moving toward re-opening its economy and you have chinese doing well like baidu and pindue oduo >> and they're outperforming and loosely, and they're up barely half a percent
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kl is aswitched before it's an uglier scene for cloudflare, snowflake, asana is down 14% in the past week. we're also seeing weakness in payments and fin tech after a strong cybershoping week the firm is down, over 8% at this moment and block over 6% and paycom and paylocity and paypal, the only outperformer today, but just barely jon? >> kristina, thank you one more check on tesla. tesla tesla denied earlier reports that it would cut production at a shanghai factory and the stock is near session lows. >> coming up in a few moments, circle terminating its plans to go public via spac and after e posure to ftx. thceo will join us live.
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welcome back workforce rebalancing has been a major topic in tech. here are some highlights from the tech executive council summit with how leadership is thinking about this environment. more "tech check" is next. >> i think the primary concerns will be the business slowdown and how that impacts the talent. >> we see what's going on in the
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economy layoffs, the pace of change just in hiring, the patterns, the speed that's going to be needed to get quality candidates the job they need for their families. >> the challenge we face in 2023 is ensuring the employee sh experience stays at top of mind it's hard to love your company before the employees do. >> over a quarter are women and we can do more to make it an even playing field building diversity should become a priority
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♪ ♪ quick news alert this morning. a report from business insider indicating that slack ceo stewart butterfield is set to leave salesforce in january. we have reached out to salesforce for a comment there's a look at the stock in a pretty red tape down 12% d? >> crypto company circle and concord acquisition corp calling their $9.1 million deal. >> thank you, deirdre. joining me now is jeremy laird, ceo of circle. thank you for being here with me this morning. >> thank you for having me. >> circle's sec registration
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didn't get over the finish line essentially in time. what was the hang-up on the regulatory side? >> yeah. so, as noted in the release r the s4 was not made effective which was approaching this week. what i can say is we made tremendous progress over the past year with the sec the sec i think is doing a very good job understanding this market and understanding our unique business model and this company and we're very confident that we will ultimately become a public company here, but just this particular transaction in this timeframe was unfortunately, timing out. we obviously, we are also able to share our q3 financial results alongside this with close to $275 million in revenue, positive net income and a five-year business and we're
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situating ourselves to continue to build there and build and list the company at the appropriate time >> jeremy, i want to ask about the q3 numbers and 43 million in net america. is that sustainable based on what is going on in crypto and is circle's business taking a hit with what's happening at ftx. can you talk about your exposure here >> fortunately, circle itself is not a risk taking business we're not investing capital and not a hedge fund we're not a prime brokerage. we operate a stable coin and dollar digital currency and that's proven quite resilient during this whole year, really and while it's a little bit off of its height from earlier this year, we've actually seen some strengthening post the ftx situation, and i think there's a flight to quality and a flight to safety and in the current environment, i think we're very well situated.
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i think there's a lot of eyes on where does this industry go from here we've always been focused on how do we build utility value and how do we take dollars and make them efficient and useful on the public internet and that's been our focus and business model and we think that will serve us well as has been our focus and business model and will serve us well as this industry continues to build. >> i want to go back to the sec approval that you are determining back to timing out of the transaction can you speak to the sec approval what was the hang up here? is there a reason you can'ttel us >> yeah, no, i think that one can, you know, review the kind of filings that we have made and the, you know,ively minor updates to our filings over the past couple of months. i think we're making really good progress like i said, i think the sec is
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doing a very good job. their job is to make sure companies that are going to be listed in american capital markets have robust risk disclosures and financial disclosures and accounting rules and that affected any digitally listed company with assets, and very good engagement with the sec, and hopefully in the future we will enter the public markets in some other way. >> so to be clear, jeremy, i didn't hear a reason there is there one or do we need to go back out to the updates to see why the sec had questions? >> i can't share the specific details of the specific questions that go back and forth. ultimately when we do go through a public listing, all the back and forth comment letters are made public, so that will take place in due course.
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>> and it was signed the deal, and the industry in general, was there any pushback from your sponsor on the price tag >> yeah, i mean, we negotiated our revised deal and announced that, i think, in february, or so we had a subsequent major financing event in may, which valued the company at least to $8 billion that was a modest discount from the price. we have seen 1000% year over year revenue growth, so the business has strengthened and we are in a good position and i think we are one of the ones that has this kind of performance, and my view is valuation is a moment in time
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thing, and we'll continue to see how this company gets valued in the future >> thank you so much for being with us today. we'll send it back that. >> thank you for bringing us that let's stick with crypto. crypto in a tumultuous moment following the collapse of ftx. >> reporter: over the next three days, we are hearing from some of the biggest names in bitcoin, and we are more optimistic than ever about where the industry is headed now that some of the companies have been exposed for their bad business practices and wiped out, and they think it makes a clear case for bitcoin, because it's the og cryptocurrency, and it prioritizes decentralization part of why the conference is happening in africa for the first time this year is because
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it's where you are seeing totally organic grassroots adoption of bitcoin, and you have the layer to tech bit on top of bitcoin that is trying to replace existing payment rails which was a major topic today of several key notes and panels, and making money transfers around the world, instantly settled and cheaper. we're talking about bitcoin as a savings technology, because even though the price is volatile in industries where the local currency lost most of its value, bitcoin can become safer than your neighborhood bank a lot happening today here in africa >> all right thank you. if you missed part of the show, remember, you can follow and subscribe to the tech check podcast anytime anywhere you
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one more thing this morning. elon musk saying apple fully resumed advertising on twitter, making the announcement over twitter spaces this weekend days after saying he met with tim cook and then amazon reportedly looking to increase its ad spent on twitter to $100 million a year as the platform offers a slew of incentives, and that suggests at least twitter's internal expectations for weeks like world cup week are well below their target >> makes one wonder what elon musk's goals were in pushing some of the buttons, whether or not it was shoring up revenue to pay the bills. >> yeah, and we will see how twitter fairs. and then tim draper was saying
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bitcoin will hit $25 million next year, and he said a lot of things over the years, guys. this was a big call. cathie wood, still not as high as her call? >> originally, draper said 250,000 by the end of this year, and clearly that is not happening and he said he will push that out six months i have my doubts about six months and bitcoin being at that level. we will see. i want to come back to the reported stewart butterfield impending departure from salesforce before we go. this comes days after taylor announces he's leaving, and that's two key acquisitions bringing in the talent all of a sudden going out the door. >> meantime, wolf said they covered them over a decade, and covid pull forward, and execution, missteps and mna miss
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fires have created headwinds >> yeah, and the activist investor call has been having a rough year, down 4% today. it has been a very diluted company over the last few years. >> yeah, busy week ahead let's get to the judge in "the half." welcome everybody to "halftime report." one says buy and one says sell joining me for the hour today, stephanie link, joe teara tear nova s&p is down about 1.5% and 357 is where we ar

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