is that enough to carry you? >> you got a lot already in the books. i think it's a coin flip i'm not going to argue against the fact that the back half of december is usually strong how high is the court of appealing in the next few weeks. >> it's going to be interesting. i'll see you tomorrow. that's mike santoli with his last word. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," a redmond as wall street drops for the third straight day banks, energy, and a number of retail names among the biggest losers is it time to say so long to the talk of a santa claus rally? plus, shfz brain drain for the second time in a matter of days, a top exec is stepping down last week co-ceo breath taylor today slack founder stewart butterfield. is there more to the changes than meets the eye washington and weed. the senate working on a bipartisan bill for businesses to bank, get loans and more.

the big market moves in the space coming up. i'm melissa lee. on the desk tonight, karen finerman, julie diehl, dan nathan and the market seeing the worst losses in a month with the nasdaq leading the way down nearly 2%. the s&p dropping for a third day in the row the dow schetting more than 480 bounties only one stock in that index, boeing able to pull off gains today. meantime, treasury yields were back on the rise, spread between two and ten years, hitting a new 40-year low. so is this an early warning sign that the recent rally's best days are behind us well, we had a pretty decent rally, dan if you believe that that rally was pulled forward, than maybe maybe that's the case. what do you think? >> maybe when you think of other risk assets away from the supermarket, yield as peaked, crude has peaked, the dollar as peaked, that's what the stock market over the last month, month 1/2 has rallied into we know the playbook now as we think about the fed down shifting of those rate

hikes we had four consecutive 75 basis point hikes, it seems pretty clear it's going to be 50 and maybe a 25 in january. and then we have all this quantitative tightening. i guess the focus is we have the jobs number. we have other data trickling in, a little better than expected. what the fed chair powell said last wednesday that caused a rally in stocks that we've nearly given back most of it is they're going to stay the course whatever they thought they read wednesday at 2:15, it was saying the thing that we all knew it were going to say. to me, to answer your question, yes, the rally has also pulled forward. some excitement because things are likely to get a bit rockier in the economy over the next few months and the stock market is likely to reflect that at some point. and it really won't bottom in my belief until estimates for 2023 earnings have come down stanley. that may not happy until we get to the bulk of q4 earnings in late january and february. >> it athe service number came n

better than expected oh, the fed might be hawkish again. well might have the fed ramp up. and so where do we stand here? >> it's just a constant ongoing dance that we're going through with the fed where we cannot figure out if bad news is good news, is good news, bad news it's about as easy to understand as any of my relationships which is not very easy as it turns out. but i think dan is absolutely right. i think really what is going to be driving the market longer term is when are we going to get these earnings revisions because if we look at numbers right now, they're completely out of line where sentiment is so until we get that, i don't think we can have a real proper bottom >> karen >> so i'm looking. we're right back to where we were 2:00 p.m. on wednesday. so that whole mirage, i guess. i think you're right you brought it up at the top of the show the santa claus rally came really early. >> right. >> this year we had an enormous move from the bottom of october through early december we're talking last week about it, like 14% or something like

that so this is not -- it shouldn't be surprising at all i still think this is just a tiny move down off of what was still a huge -- i'm not even fully sure why so i think the market isn't a monolith we always talk about that, and some things, like today was a terrible day for any of the high-flying, the triple qs, and crm, which we'll get to later. anything that had a really high multiple, it was a bad day for that i don't think it should have had the run-up it did have in the last few weeks i look at things that are low p/e. i don't think they're crazy. i don't think they're -- i think there is parts of the market that are actually buyable here >> yeah. like what? did you do any today >> i didn't do anything today, but i think something like -- footlocker is one i've liked for a while. if i owned none, i would probably buy some right here. >> jeff mills, dan brought up in terms of the dollar. that's one reason why the

markets have been able to lev levitate we've lost more than half of our gains for the year in just the past few weeks so in terms of another reason for the markets to rally, i don't know if the dollar is going to come back a lot more off of that, but that was certainly one overhang over stocks and one reason why we needed to see estimates come down. >> there is no doubt about it. the dollar has been at a key technical level for some time. i think you're probably in the ballpark of it being oversold. but it's really been currency differentials that have been the driver and i think that sort of less supportive of the dollar right now. but then you also have safe haven flows. and i also think you have positioning. i think folks got very short euro that has unwound some. there is the potential for that trade to be put back on as we move into 2023 i don't know for me, the dollar almost seems like it becomes less of an issue. i don't think it's going to plummet from here, but i also don't know that the elements are in place for a massive rally here what i do think, and i'll go back to what dan said, earnings estimates doneed to come down. and even if they don't, the

risk/reward is somewhat questionable here. simple math. 2023 earnings at 223 a share that's projecting about 5% growth in any type of recession scenario, that's too high. but let's assume that's what we get. and let's put an 18 times mul multiple, probably out of the question for the environment we're going into but let's be overly optimistic that's what, 3% upside, maybe 5% upside from where we closed today. so that's assuming we get that multiple, that's assuming the earnings don't come down i think the risk/reward is not great right here with the catalyst for the market continue tock pivot narrative, i don't know that that's a catalyst for equities. i think maybe it's a better catalyst for the bond market than it's historically been for stocks >> a pivot a pivot meaning what that once we reach peak, that the fed backs off? >> yeah. when i hear pivot, i'm not talking about pause. i'm talking about an actual rate

cut. so i think you can get a pause, and i think that they could stay at that level for quite some time they've been very clear about that but i think the market has been so trained on this drug of easy monetary policy and rate cuts that everybody assumes as soon as the fed cuts rates, all of the sudden we're going to be off to the races again my guess is again that's a better catalyst for bonds. i don't think it's necessarily a great environment for risk on, because i think it's likely in response to something that is not terribly attractive in the overall economy. >> yeah. just mention you think about the ten-year yield rallying 10 basis points today off of let's say a technical level 3.5% down from what it was nearly 4.35 nearly a month ago, pretty dramatic did that help the equity market over the past month? probably a little bit. in general, as far as the sentiment goes but look at what got hit hard in the market today look at banks across the board look at home builders. some very rate sensitive names we were looking at banks and

home builders for the first half of this year they were kind of a leading indicator of what the broader market was in store for them and a lot of the biggest names that investors were crowding into, these large cap tech names, they were keeping the major indices afloat as the banks were going lower now when you think of the rally that a lot of these banks have had, since q 3 earnings happened in the middle of october, it feels too far, too fast. if they were to lead to the downside coupled with -- we're starting to hear all of these layoffs there was pepsico is firing hundreds of people today. well, pepsico, they license seats from like salesforce and from these other companies i know we're going to talk than later. it's just been this orgy of enterprise spending towards those sorts of models for years now. and i think that's what could shift. and that's one of the things that could also lead to the downside if we retest the lows. >> i think that's interesting about pepsico layoffs is pepsico is one of the companies that has been doing very well, raising

forecasts, also being able to raise prices on double-digit percentages every quarter. they have the pricing power. consumers are paying it. yet here they are laying people off. what does that say about some of the other companies that are not in as good a position financially as the a pepsico >> they're going to have to lay people off more. i think even more so that's the thing about bad news/good news, you lay off enough people, the fed really does have the ability to slow things down. but i think we're still really, really early and the other thing, i don't know as much about pepsico as some of the faang names have been so fab. they've been growing, growing, growing. they can hire everybody, as much talent as they can possibly get. now we're seeing that turn around i think that will help them. we've seen it a little bit with meta which is well off the bottom as they begin to lay off. i think there is still thousands of people left. >> for more on the market sell-off, let's turn to

long-term bear david rosenberg, known as serving as merrill lynch's top north american economist from 2002 to 2009. david, it's always great to get your take on things. you say that you're seeing signs of intensifying economic strain in the economy so how do you feel about the fed, what is expected of the fed, and that's 50 basis points in december, if that economic strain is in fact intensifying already? >> well, i don't think you can argue against what the fed is already signaling to the market. i think they've already signaled that 50 basis points is coming our way in mid-december. the question is going to be, you know, what is the tone of the press statement, what is the body language and nuance at the post meeting press conference. so the real key is what happens next year. i mean, the next meeting is right around the corner. it's really immaterial it's really the forward guidance as to what they actually do on

that report. >> given what your seeing right now, david, in terms of the households tapping into credit increasingly now, what do you think is going to happen with the economy over the next few months are there going to be signs that the fed can actually say you know what? what we're doing is working. the economy is in fact slowing considerably. >> well, the economy already is slowing. notwithstanding friday's number which everybody seems to miss is the 0.3% decline in the workweek aggregate hours down 0.2%. that hasn't happened since last january. so actually, you're seeing all sorts of indicators showing the economy is weakening so no one should be forecast the economy's weakening. that's already happened pretty well all year long the question is do we start contracting, and a recession is an economic contraction. it's a haircut on gdp. i think there is a very good chance we're going to start to see evidence of that start manage the opening months of

next year. look, the fed is -- the fed already told us that they're prepared to have a recession just by the unemployment rate cs they think the unemployment rate is going to 4.4% next year we bottomed at 3.5%. you never failed to have a recession if the-point drop 0.9. they don't really care it's for the greater good of killing inflation. set ourselves up for the next upcycle starting in 2024 and i think that's what the message is >> david, this is julie. i wanted to ask about the mix of employment that you're seeing. karen talked about this in terms of layoffs happening at the tech companies. scott galloway talks about a patagonia recession. throughout the corporate sector, but the front line work seems to be really strong what implications does that have for the mix of the economic growth and output we'll have over the next year >> well, you know what's

interesting is that of course the layoffs in the tech sector are the mega caps that have grabbed all the headlines. but late last week we got the challenger numbers on layoff announcements, and they were well beyond just the tech sector they ran a wide gamut across every part of the cyclical sensitive segment of the economy. you know, there was retail or transports or manufacturing, it cut a wide swath so i know that temptation is always to talk about look at technology, technology, technology no, no, no, no, no when you take a look at the challenger numbers, the actual survey, not just the media headline reps, the latest announcements are cutting a very wide swath right now it's really broadly based. >> hey, david, in your note this morning at rosenberg research, you said there is scant attention being played to a 6.5% plunge in november u.s. auto sales. that's annualized at 14.1%, down

from 15.1% in october. extrapolate that a little bit. you just talked about manufacturing. we went from heavy demand and supply constraints in the auto space, and now something else is happening. >> well, what was interesting about the auto sale numbers for november was that it served as a real template, what is happening on demand. because for so many months we had auto sales scaling multi-year lows. and of course the finger-pointing was all on the supply bubble net problems and the lack of supply but on a year-to-year basis, inventories and shipments and production were all up more than 10%. so we've seen a significant thaw in the automotive industry, and yet sales fell well below expected in november is telling you something about what is happening with consumer demand i know that didn't show up in the october numbers. the october numbers on personal

spending were skewed by a lot of the one-off tax refunds that the state and local governments were giving back to the proletariat but the auto sale numbers, what is more discretionary than auto sales? and they fell sharply, as you said this time around not because there is a fight because of demand destruction >> david, thank you so much for joining us good to see you. >> pleasure. >> david rosenberg, rosenberg research jeff mills, your takeaway here >> i would have been interested to get david's take on this, and i've been wanting to mention this for a while but just back to the employment picture very quickly there are two surveys. there is the establishment survey, there is the household survey we all hear about the establishment survey, created close to 3 million jobs over the past eight months. the household survey shows zero jobs created and that's because it counts a person holding three separate jobs as three jobs

where the household survey says it's just one. my fear along with david is we may be tightening into a labor market that isn't as strong as it looks on the surface. i generally agree with his takeaways. >> and that sort of matches up with what we saw in today's market action, karen, with banks, retailers taking 80 tonight chin here. >> also back what david said, if you look at ally financial lately i mean, ally trades at five times earnings, and big yield. this is historically auto loan and so that's a little bit of a worrying sign. to see the expectation, i guess in credit quality is one >> sure. >> maybe that hits the banks a little but i don't think that's what the main thing with the banks was today. i'm not really sure what it was, to be honest i don't know if it's fear of stagflation. we talked about it on the 12:30 call i don't know i was surprised just they've run up a lot maybe just giving some back. >> sure. coming up, two stand-up buzz kills in today's sell-off,

salesforce and vf corp what had these two names heading lower? and planning production shift out of what will that mean for suppliers. we'll detail the impact when "fast money" returns

welcome back to "fast money. we have a double buzz kill salesforce jobbing more than 7% to the lowest since the start of the pandemic the latest move coming on the news of slack ceo stewart butterfield is stepping down less than 18 months after his company was bought by the cloud giant. just days after co-ceo breath taylor said he was leaving crm is this a brain drain happening before our eyes? >> i think so. i'm sure marc benioff is going to be fine breath taylor was thought to be the heir apparent. he was also the chairman of twitter before that went private. when you think about butterfield, he is a great entrepreneur he built a big company he sold it to salesforce for nearly $28 billion think about that that was one of the biggest tech deals in the past couple of decades.

so to lose a couple of guy like that on your bench i don't think is fantastic maybe it's time for a couple of gals >> diversity by the way, he is always surrounded by women. >> jeff. >> daughters, wife >> but it's a problem for the stock. investors are really spooked by it, even if in theory it should not be a problem for marc benioff. >> i think it's an indication of a couple things. one is how many businesses this company has acquired it makes it very hard to understand what the true underlying profitability of it is and the second thing, when you made this many acquisitions and you have these kinds of integrations of these high quality tech businesses, it doesn't always work. they don't actually integrate that well. and like stewart was a well reguarded tech investor. he didn't just sell his company. he took it public too. i think it's an indication that he stayed so little time of what the culture is like and the turmoil that is really happening. i think it's lacking direction and when i look at it as an

investor, i just think to myself, this thing should be so much more profitable than it is. >> and there is so much more integration when it comes to mealsoft and tablo let's go to shares of the supreme owner dropping after cutting revenue and earnings guidance for the seekd anymore in two months. this is the worst day for the stock since march of 2020. also announcing chairman steve randall is stepping down effective immediately. jeff, you just bought some shares a few weeks ago now what >> yeah, so we have a dividend strategy that we run we brought a pretty small position about a month ago so a little bit lower than where the stock is trading today i think we sized it to account for the risk/reward that we saw. the risk is the retail environment. we keep talking about that i think their position in the market, this is probably kind of a harsh term, but sort of middling brands. it's not lu lulu or tjx or dollar general we knew the 2023 estimates were

too high that was baked into our analysis i think the ceo change is going to impact sentiment in the near term overall here, nothing is broken. obviously the stock pays a massive dividend, which i think they're committed to so for a small position in this type of strategy which focuses on income, we're comfortable holding the stock here >> i mean, this is a case of a company that has brands that doesn't control how the brands are sold and we've seen this time and time again because they reference wholesale partners canceling orders, which is a problem, and discounting. >> also, jeff is spot-on with the middling brands. but i think also this inventory position that they're in is gigantic and very problematic. and they have the unfortunate situation of being compared at least in the last week with pbh, which had a very good quarter. they're not in that very different businesses so that didn't look great. pbh had a much lower inventory position so that hurts the gross margin they talk about hurting the gross margin, hurting margins

coming down all of next year as well i don't know why they put that guidance out there, to be honest why? why do it? if you want to clear out inventory and you got to do whatever it takes, i wouldn't put guidance out this is already a bummer of an earnings release. >> yeah. >> and you're looking for a new ceo. why give them guidance they've got to step into >> right i think there is a wholesale cleanup that really has to happen in that business. what is hard is their mix is so much more tilted towards shoes that's a longer cycle time i bet a lot of the shoes are still stuck on the port of long beach somewhere. what is concerning to me is their strongest brand was the north face and to see the weakness in that business is really problematic for them long-term i don't know if it's just the hippie hikers in california, i count myself among them, didn't go out and shop. but it's a problem for the long-term. >> there is a lot more "fast money" to come here's what's coming up next >> adios, apple. the tech titan makes plans for a production move out of china

so could the supply chain change help boost the stock or be an iphone folly the details next plus, oiled up and ready to go opec plus sticking with production cuts. so what's next for the energy space? a top analyst joins us next to break it down. you're watching "fast money," live from the sdnaaq market sight in times square. we're back right after this.

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then work with highly qualified professionals to fill out your forms and submit the application. go to innovationrefunds.com to learn more. welcome back to "fast money. apple is planning to move some of its production out of china, according to a report over the weekend. the tech company eyeing india and vietnam to take on more of its operations this comes as apple's strained supply chain combats holiday delays in china's covid plans.

what do you think of this, karen? good news for apple? >> i guess so. but i feel like this has been happening in slow motion for a little while. >> slightly faster motion? >> maybe a little bit faster because it needs to be a little bit faster, and sort of two years have gone by they see the need for diverse manufacturing plants, right? i think that's going to be sort of writ large, not just apple. they are particularly vulnerable to a worsening china-u.s. relations. and we saw the covid lockdowns so i don't know how they cannot. but i feel like this is sort of priced in. but writ large, though, that will be less efficient and inflationary in general. repatriate or move manufacturing around the world, or back to the u.s. >> dan, do you think it's bad for margins? >> it could be think about it that what they have to do, they're not doing it they're saying to fox conn, you have to do this. you have to set up factories at these places listen, you are right. they have to do this

tim cook, prior to him being ceo, spent the ten years before that, okay, just setting up the supply chain iphone city and doing all of the things that it takes to basically hum the way that they're humming and command what they want from the supply chain. if you're going fracture that after 20 years, it's not going to be easy i'm not telling you go sell apple, or the story is done. but that is the beauty of this story. that's one of the reasons why they literally have 80% of the gross margin in the entire smartphone business, you know what i mean? because they have been able to do this. unwinding this is not great. reshoring it, these are good jobs for americans this is part of the deal we've been talking about this for five years reshoring it, your thousand dollars iphone is probably going to cost you $1400. >> yeah. and are people willing to pay that >> probably not. >> maybe not but in terms of this is not an immediate fix for any of the problems they have in terms of foxconn in china, flipping the switch and getting production up and running. it's not going to be in time for this holiday season. they're going to still be impaired on that front but have we factored that in,

julia, do you think at this point with the stock in the stock did fairly well today compared to the rest of the market >> i think in the near term, it's a little bit of a concern you a softening consumer, and these thousand dollars phones are probably going to be going up in price. i like to think of this company not so much as a tech business but as a logistics and supply chain business that is the level of complexity that they're at. they're in the business of getting these parts into the phones what i worry for holiday, if they do not have the supply, that that sale doesn't just get delayed. it actually gets held over for quite a while. people will just continue to use their phones because the innovation hasn'treally been there from generation to generation of each phone >> let's stick with china here options traders are betting on a huge rally maikike khouw has the action >> alibaba today we saw twice as many calls trading as puts. one of the trades that stuck out

to me was the purchase of december 30th as the month ending 95.105. a the buyer is betting the stock will rally somewhere between 8 and 16% by the end of the month. >> all right, mike, thanks for that mike chouw marijuana banking legislation comes into mission we're hashing out the pot plan ahead. helima croft joins us and the new russian oil caps, how this will iact ermpengy stocks. that and much more when "fast money" returns you ok, man? the internet is telling me a million different ways i should be trading. look! what's up my trade dogs? you should be listening to me. you want to be rich like me? you want to trust me on this one.

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on markets today stocks selling off to start the week the dow dropping more than 480 bounties the s&p 1.8% and the nasdaq leading the losses, closing out nearly 2% lower. it wasn't all red hours across the board. some macau casino stocks trading higher in hopes of easing restricts in china

and boeing eked out a gain on reports that united is close to an order for dozens of 787 dream liners shares at their highest levels since april. and check out the after hours move in get lab, a smaller than expected loss, giving guidance for the current quarter and year up macro worries and the interest rates put a proposed cap on russian exports offset a big opec plus oil supply cut rbc capital markets global ahead of strategy helima croft joins us now he helima, great to have you with us. >> thank you for having me on. >> we've seen this big move lower in oil and we haven't gotten china coming back online. and we're seeing the covid restrictions ease before our very eyes. i'm wondering how you think all this shakes out. >> i think today was clearly a macro story for oil that it got caught up in clearly there are concerns about a rate hiking for perpetuity but the big story on the demand side to pay attention so is

china. if we were to get significant lifting of covid restrictions, that would be a tailwind for oil. chinese demand has been so abysmal. and oil has actually held up, given like the weakness in the key market for oil so if we had any major rollback in covid restrictions, that would be a catalyst to move higher obviously for the oil market >> helima, it's karen. do you know how much of china's soil from russia versus elsewhere? and will that dynamic be a buffer if they come back online? >> i mean, this is the really important story when you think about the price cap. and today's big news was from the launch of the eu six package of sanctions, the embargo of seaborne oil into europe and the price cap to try to enable those barrels to move to asia and so the price cap certainly saying at $60, western service providers, insurers, shippers, you can move those barrels to markets like china, like india but if you don't pay at the cap, good luck with getting any western services

so you're going have to rely on russia's shadow fleet, russian insurance. and so the question is going forward is will big markets for russian crude, india, china continue to absorb as many barrels and actually take the barrels that are no longer going into europe. this is the key thing everyone is watching right now. >> hey, helima, jeff mills here. just another question on the supply situation say it remains fairly robust barrels don't come off the market that some people fear, obviously going into an economic slowdown so that's an impact on the demand side. do you see some sort of floor in the price of oil, and if so, maybe where would that be? >> this is an interesting thing to pay attention to. washington right now, the biden administration has signaled that they will start buying back for the spr when wti is consistently around $70 also, you have to think about opec opec decided to take a pass on further output action this weekend, sticking with their two million barrel a day production

cut. but if we were to move materially lower because of demand concerns, again, driven by federate hike concerns, you could potentially see opec come back into the market what i also caution against believing that we're necessarily done with russian export losses. this is just day one of the sanctions. the russians have said they're not going to sell to any customer that abides by the cap. and right now you're starting to see a backlog of ships around turkey as turkish authorities are saying they're checking for your insurance before they let you through the strategic waterways. so we do not know yet how the whole russian supply picture is going to pan out given we're just in day one of the most significant sanctions on russian oil that's been imposed since the start of the war >> at what day, helima you going say we know the impact now >> i mean, right now we have a situation where europe basically has until around mid-january to take the cargos that were on the water from russia. so if basically, your ship left

on december 4, you can still sail into europe but the question is one month out, what is the picture going to look like and again, if i leave you with nothing, pay attention to what's happening with turkey. you could have a situation where a number of shippers, insurance firms, trading houses are trying to parse this new sanctions legislation and are not quite sure if they can do business with russia. and again, russia has shown at least when it comes to natural gas, they will cut you off if they do not like the policies you're pursuing. so, again, i would pay close attention to the russian threats. they may not be entirely bluster. >> all right helima, thank you so much for joining us nice to see you. >> thank you >> helima croft of rbc jeff mills, how are you trading oil right now. >> so i think there is at least this question of lower supply, and i do think there is some support in, say, the mid to low 70s. i was even looking at some of the futures contracts. if you go out three months or longer, they were not make

anything lows even as the spot commodity was. i think that was interesting i think the bottom line for me, good charts, bad market. that's what i want to keep looking for. you have 96% of energy stocks still above their 200-day moving arrange, even with the volatility we've seen lately the trend has not been broken. exxon, chevron holding key levels i know dan feels differently but thing is a trade you can stick with here, at least for the next couple of quarters. >> i do feel differently, and i'll tell you why. i think the $70 mark that the biden administration is talking about to refill the spr, i think it's going to be a magnet. it's going go right back there inside grated into the oil service names, they tapped out at key technical levels. they also are a huge contributor to s&p earnings this year. and they're expected to be much less next year and decline in the second half of the year. i think investors are going to sniff that out i am short of the xle puts later this month and the uso which is an etf that tracks the price of oil. listen, you can say okay, well,

yield coming down. the dollar coming down i think a lot of these macro relationships are coming a bit unwind when you look at the oil stocks, they're disconnected obviously for the price of crude i think they can come in at a time where oil continues to come, in but maybe there is a floor near the 52-week lows which would be around 70 we've got a news alert on a major defense contract win for surging after hours of 7 morgan has the details morgan >> hey, melissa, that's right. this is a big win from a high profile, high stakes competition for textron. this is for the future long-range assault aircraft program for the u.s. army. this is called flara for sure. the military loves its acronyms. this is to replace the army's black hawk helicopters part of a vertical modernization priority. it's an estimated $80 billion program. that's according to jeff ries.

this is very much a tight competition between textron and lockheed team up with boeing it was textron's bell v-280 which is what just ron this contract award versus sikorsky's defiant x aircraft here. so unsurprisingly, you're seeing textron move higher, in large part because as analysts said coming into this competition, this contract award, textron really needed this win for its defense portfolio given the fact that it has been seeing fading sales on the defense side of the business for lockheed, this is going to raise questions where they're going to get future growth over the coming years a very big contract announcement today from the u.s. army back over the you. >> morgan, thank you morgan brennan textron shares up 8% right now coming up, a pot plan on the hill it could have a big impact on the space. we'll diinheg to t weeds on this one. we're back in two. and thanks to voya, i'm confident about my future.

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access to banking institutions the legislation the result of pairing the safe banking and hope acts. our own tim seymour joins us on the "fast" line. tim, i feel like we've been through this before. it's getting close it's getting close is this even closer at this point? >> it is closer, and again, this is not only bipartisan, but it's essentially bicameral. you've had both the house and the senate, and the house has already voted for this but the senate really is close and as we all know, with all legislation, lame duck is pretty chaotic. and i think today going into today off the weekend, especially when republican senators met with the doj who months ago had some questions about whether you could actually implement some of the necessarily expungement and criminal justice reform, that's a go axios over the weekend put out an article that got the market very worked up the market has been worked up as the expectation is we're close to something we have heard this before. i've been very skeptical on cannabis legislation passing

i think schumer and booker are much more reasonable in the ask, but a lot to jam in a short amount of time. >> yeah. in terms of the trade, tim, have the stocks pretty much made the move on the hopes of this already? which stocks do you think still could benefit? i understand that all these stocks have benefitted from access to banking, but i'm sure some more than others. >> the u.s. multi-state operators are the ones that are in probably the most light year because of the impact this could have for not the potential to these guys at some point be building upon lower cost of capital. this legislation isn't about exchange listings, but it may be about the incremental dynamic. they might even allow a lot of the institutional investors that watch our show to finally be able to invest because they could get custody. i think if you've seen the move in the cannabis markets over the last week or ten days, it's about a 20% move i don't think these stocks are priced in, but i do think

investors are properly cautious as we've heard a lot of this news before. cannabis charts have been bottom and base for six months. the moves over the last week have been higher volume and i think multiples and expectations are largely reset. curaleaf, trulieve, gti, i think the entire sector will rally i think canadian stocks have been rallying along with u.s. stocks. >> thanks for phoning. in tim seymour, our resident cannabis king. jeff mills with the package of the safe banking act would that change anything for you in terms of investing in this space >> i mean, it certainly will help, right, because not all of these companies currently have access to capital. i think less companies go out of business and obviously the ones that survive i think end up being in better shape from a fundamental standpoint that's important for this market right now, companies that have demonstrate a path to profitability or a

path to cash flow, that's the critical moment where some of these companies get off the mat and to tim's point stop bottoming and move higher. >> all right after the break, from retail traders to the pros, options activity since the start of the pandemic is booming. we'll dive into the friends of these traders next "fast mone iba itwy"s ckn o. ng u and your family first. i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

welcome back to "fast money. option volumes have doubled over the last three years, and to make sure that the systems can handle this massive increase in orders, the nasdaq is teaming up with amazon to put trading in the cloud. here to explain why this will improve trading and what the trading trends are on the options market is tah cohen, our neighbor at the set. nice to see you here we were talking offline in terms of the massive boom. we know there is a boom in retail trading in particular during the pandemic. it's still elevated, though. that's surprising to me. >> it is what we see in the market is the education, the awareness efforts that we tell brokers and folks like nasdaq have put in over the past few years has paid dividends. you're seeing this broad utility in these use cases that options serve. retail is starting to take

advantage of that, whether it's hedging, yield or leverage, beyond just i want to have a unidirectional position on a stock. i think that's really fuelled what you're seeing in the market while we're off our highs, we see options and volumes elevated >> so teenage up with amazon, trading in the cloud, what does this mean? if you're at home making a trade, what does that mean to a person >> hopefully nothing it means it only gets better and today marks the end of one journey for us so we moved our first market into the cloud we just finished that migration today. it was really two migrations in one, because it's on our new global platform, and we moved it only to aws outpost. and as a result of that, we've actually seen an increase in performance. so latency comes down. in the world we live in, microseconds and nanoseconds. >> faster. >> faster allows you to manage risk better and the technology is more deterministic. i think that's a real point of view and client experience has been

good performance has been good. and what this means now going forward is we're going to continue that journey with our other option markets and other markets because we have a great proof point for the industry and retail investors. >> so how does this help you in terms of the competition versus other exchanges? >> yeah so, we've always wanted to establish ourselves as a thought leader in adopting and integrating advanced technologies like the cloud. and the reason for that is it allows us to develop closer and more meaningful relationships with our customers where we can share our expertise and our experience with them, and it also positions us to solve more of their problems which unlocks cross-sell and upsale with our customers. >> just speaking from the nasdaq perspective, ndaq perspective, not just the retail trading perspective. >> i think it creates a win-win. we can manage our costs better we can manage our relationships better we can be more responsive to our clients which is the win for them and we can think about, for example, scaling up and scaling down capacity now, if you think

about the pandemic and the unpredictable nature of our markets back in 2020 where we had real-time needs in terms of capacity our ability now to meet those capacity needs is far greater, and we can do it far more efficiently. >> you met the capacity during the pandemic, though, when you saw the options boom so when you say meet the capacity now, with the help of the cloud, that means you could have processed even more trades? you could have processed them faster you could have processed them more efficiently >> all of the above. so it really depends on the market conditions. so when you have markets just give you an example, just today we processed 4.2 billion messages on our new platform that's in the cloud, 4.2 billion. and that's not even a highly volatile day or a really active hen yothink about that on a highly volatile day, being able to get that information out to investors so they can take that price in, access the markets very efficiently, really important to price discovery and what nasdaq stands for. >> tal, thanks for coming by

stop by again. you're on the 27th floor >> come visit any time. >> on the nasdaq dan, you trade options >> i do trade options, and a lot of them go through the nasdaq exchange i think these sorts of deals we're going to start seeing a bit more of them like tal just said, being a first mover. we had terry duffy on, the ceo of cme group last year they did a ten-year deal with google cloud remember that? if you're trying to increase efficiencies and all these sords of things, cme has 24-hour trading. these guys, 4.5 billion messages it needs to have a certain sense resiliency. good for them. up next, final trade

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do not miss a special "squawk box" live from business round table that is tomorrow huge slate of interviews including the ceos of gm, and walmart here on cnbc time pour the final trade. jeff mills >> it's a nice outperformance from banks from about april through october. underperformed over 10% since pretty spectacular at resistance today. i think that continues into next

year >> julie biel? >> i like teledyne i think this is a business that has a good balance of defense exposure but the commercial business is doing well i think it's interesting >> karen >> wait, did you say the ceo of one of the banks along the banking line, if you want to buy back some bank of america callth is at sold a couple of my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to save you a little money my job is not just to entertain but teach about days like today so you can better prepare for them so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me