sustainability, whether it's buildings, energy shift, green fuels, that's the topic of every conversation. >> darius adamczyk, thank you for being with us. >> that does it for us today we hope to see you back tomorrow right now it's time for "squawk on the street. take care. what a great show. welcome to "squawk on the street." i'm carl quintanilla with jim faber and jim cramer we're coming off the worst session in almost a month. a lot of commentary from business round table we'll get to all of it oil is back to 57. our road map begins with fading ceo optimism, eroding consumer

wealth and layoffs. plus, taiwan boosting that investment in arizona. president biden is set to visit the planned plant today. jamie dimon calling out crypto. let's begin with the markets. jamie was talking about the con consumer, calling crypto a side show and pet rocks. >> jamie has a laundry list of things that he could trot out to be alarm buttons he says our military is good we all agree with that i was put off by it because what it said was i'm basically like everybody else i just don't think we can get out of the situation the situation is bad there's going to be inflation.

there's going to be a recession. when i listen to that, i say, okay, we have strategists saying we don't like the market we have individual stocks being downgraded jamie is says, listen, nothing here david, i'm not hearing anyone say, you know what, the market is -- there's some winners there's some losers going away when the fed stops, which it will, there's going to be great opportunity. it's almost as if we banned the word opportunity. >> maybe because there are a lot of people that continue to believe that there's destruction yet to come and that earnings have not come down in terms of the estimates or what will be thereality next year to a leve that is -- makes the market not attractive right now it's that simple you know it.

there are plenty who still believe that. >> yes. >> that was in action yesterday. >> here's an example of what is driving me crazy there's a piece morgan stanley, jack be nimble this is the kind of thing -- hey, you know what, the giants, they're doing quite poorly i'm picking them for the super bowl i need to hear something that indicates -- you can't have everything you can't have it looks good, but it's going to be bad jack be nimble, what is -- jack be quick sell jpmorgan with a candle stick. come on. be rigorous. people, come on. work a little. don't look at the chart. make a decision. jamie dimon do some more work.

he should say i misspoke it could be a challenging time who are these people they're paying a fortune to help people make money and they come on and what do they say? sorry it's so bad. >> at least your friend jamie didn't say hurricane he refrained from doing so. >> i know he's my friend that's terrific. maybe we're doing something this weekend. >> i use the friend term liberally. i know you're not friends. >> that's fair. >> he's been encouraged to not say hurricane. he did have some things to say. >> do you have a positive clip you're going to say? >> it's not positive it's his risks and concern. >> 4% on the way to 5% inflation is eroding everything i said a trillion and a half dollars will run out mid year next year.

those things may derail the economy and cause this mild to hard recession that people are worried about. >> i mean, look, the fed chair has raised rates to try to stop inflation. i think -- i think jamie would agree. i now ask ceos how hard is it to get people something changed in the last four weeks it's suddenly not hard the companies i talked to, not hard we have resumes. none of these guys were saying the fed will keep doing this and we'll wake up and see a lot of layoffs and you're seal employment come down and the people -- i mean, i was talking to someone from a major construction company yesterday who just said i don't know what's happened but in the last three weeks we could fill any job and then some.

it's just happening right now. alluded to the fact that amazon layoffs are going to impact the economy. >> it's interesting. it's like a fire it's working through, but it's not everywhere volk volkswagen, difficulty finding workers. david solomon saying how impressed he's been with his peers retaining talent. >> he's going to come outc compensation-wise he's going to have to reconsider look, pepsico said we have some fat. we have to cut it. that's what happens. >> they're being proactive too

they've had organic rates that are very strong, but they're cutting job. >> if i had gone home with the attitude of listening to these people yesterday -- >> what people >> the people that were a little suspect and if someone said to me at 3:00, i left early like the millions or general xoers -- listen, i'm saying every day i see things and they're not in the minority every day i see things that intrigue me. none of these people are intrigued by anything. >> take a look at david hoskins

note looking at hedge funds, $5 trillion, leaning into s cycles >> the government has $550 billion in additional infrastructure spending and we have to put it to work i know we don't have enough engineers, but we've had this period where we had ppi and boeing got bailed out, a lot of companies got bailed out that would have failed. we had major bitech writing which is coming to an end. the fed is just slowly grinding away and they're going to pull it off >> yeah, i -- i sense that you're quite positive. >> longer term i'm positive. look, a lot of these people want to say this, wow, jay, really blew it.

i'm not going there. it's an ongoing process. >> does that mean you buy the market today, jim? >> i support -- >> every person is positive long term. >> that means nothing to me. >> none of it means nothing. >> they're worried about how they're going to look on twitter. >> the average strategist is positive long term. >> in the long term we know where we are i would like to be interred next to my mom for the record. >> if the kids aren't aware, i'll put it out there. >> are you choosing music for that day >> you're not going anywhere >> i'm just saying, when these guys say the long term, that says we have no idea what is going to happen. don't listen to us >> all true. >> i mean, these are people who have found their way into deutsche coin and they're happy.

the long term is a punch that'sgetting ready to blow of in five minutes. >> two minutes >> in the short term though, people have followed diesel fuel which can be a reflection of truckers and the commercial economy. diesel prices going down >> but that's -- the system is caught up. we have a lot of pipelines. >> it may also be demand is starting to wane >> those who think that inflation is roaring ought to look at data oil, which i said -- i did more work on it yesterday i think oil could drop more just because i had thought that china was going to come back online in a way that would indicate there's going to be tremendous buying hasn't happened. here's something that i did hear we can win the war if we want to

in ukraine we can win it. the mothers of russia are upset. the casualties are terrible. it could be the end of putin he could fall. did any of these people say that no they can't say it because it's just -- they're going to get that on youtube and on twitter they're so afraid of being in a position to be held accountable. >> who are these people? >> the people i'm talking about. >> they are? >> you're right, jim nobody wants to have receipts brought on them. it's hard to make difficult -- >> that's my point. >> that's why we look to you. >> if i looked at that column, i would be hiding somewhere with my rifle and i would -- you can't do this. you have to come out and say,

listen -- even darius, we have businesses that are so strong and the fed could slow us down, but i'm not worried. frank hays was the only optimist. >> because he is a weapons manufacturer things are good. >> major faber, general shaw, he knows everything. >> he's a student of the theater. >> the theater is great. i went to see "wicked" again last night. >> long-running show >> i saw the stoppard play last week it was good. i went to three plays recently >> that's great. >> they went to washington and interviewed everybody in the world. >> and i went to the theater would you like my reviews? >> jamie dimon, greg hays, tom

mcmillan, they were all there. >> saw a couple plays. the president is headed to arizona to visit the taiwan semi chip plant we'll talk about that investment look at the tus.fure the nasdaq is trying to get into the green. more "squawk on the street" straight ahead sts in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will help you create a comprehensive wealth plan for your full financial picture. with the right balance of risk and reward.

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that doesn't mean smart contracts won't be real, but crypto currencies that don't do anything, i don't understand. >> that's from earlier in the morning. >> jim, said never too early to sell. >> there's not i think there's been this gigantic con i'm grateful to jamie who sent me to a woman in charge of this. she said we're not taking this stuff. i said i've been a customer for 30 years you have to take it.

she said, we're not. thank you. that was a great reason to sell. that, plus the fact that my wife was going to kick me out i thought that -- >> dimon has been negative on crypto since the early days. >> point based >> all true. he said we spent too much time on it, which is probably true. >> when someone borrows $24 billion and they can't afford it, isn't that what arkagos did? >> yes >> sam bankman-fried is a fascinating story, separate but connected deeply into crypto, but its own thing. >> madoff versus bankman-fried >> what about it

>> did we overcover madoff >> no. >> what does jamie want us to cover? we can go to my branch in summit and do the show from there. >> why would we do that? >> i'm trying to compare us to what they did on the morning show. >> we'll travel. >> we haven't mentioned silver gate down 8% from yesterday. they said they did due diligence. >> well, you know, sometimes you just get had >> you could have done a lot of due diligence and would have had to ask the questions and not get the sufficient answers and said i'm not comfortable with this. >> how about the big funds i don't have enough answers on the big funds that just -- i don't know. >> the ones who invested in -- ftx investors?

>> this is soft money -- when i was in -- >> can we just go down the list? >> they brought them a bottle of 1942. >> do you think that's enough questions? >> he asked me to have a drinking at 11:00. >> who did, adam >> this is in the morning. i said no. he said it's the 1942. i said that doesn't influence my decision it was a curious offering. >> yeah. >> the level of due diligence varies it's hard to imagine some of these firms do due diligence when something seems hot. >> this guy spent all the time -- should someone be fired? i mean, i think the offensive coordinator at any college in

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start talking some stocks. about 7 minutes before we start trading. auto zone, is that what i heard? >> auto zone has been cut back in half. it reported a $27 number we were looking for $25. the revenues much, much better

than expected. this is how you run a stock. this is what i'm talking about jamie, his hurricane occurred here i don't care i don't care this is what you look for. this is what i'm looking for you can go buy it if you get a chance because there's a pandemic the average age of a car is so long mine is 13 years the inability to get a car is so difficult. the price of new cars is so big. you go to do it yourself you go to the zone. >> i get it. >> david, when you bought your headlight last time -- >> of course i haven't bought anything for my car in a while. >> have you ever put a headlight in >> no. what about the rise of electric vehicles over time which have

far fewer parts? is that a long-term threat >> it's probably why people would short it david, in the long term -- >> we know we know your wishes. >> i don't think you should be paid if you're in the long term. you should be docked i'm taking $50,000 out of this week's pay because you said long term these guys make a fortune saying that stuff in the long term, in the 2024 period when we have four top draft picks, we're going to make the super bowl >> it's about hope you have to hope for something. >> accountability matters. >> okay. opening bell is a few minutes away you can catch us any time, anywhere on the "squawk on the street" podcast. get me my life back.

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in the u.s. in most roles. we still see pressure in cashier and levels like that we've been raising wages for a long time. our wage increases have out paced our sales and profits by a long shot since 2015 we'll continue to see wages go up that's okay with us. >> that's walmart's ceo talking about wages. talk about a company that saw the wage pressure early. >> yeah. they've done a great job i think doug talked about the idea that there's some trade down, sometimes the consumer is getting a little more cherry david, i thought it was an excellent interview. doug is conducting himself well as a ceo he's doing a good job. >> wages have been a central focus for quite sometime

remember when carl went down there. >> in 2015. >> it was first coming into real focus. there was a lot of pressure. >> they were having trouble. they decided -- they dropped the bomb on -- not on our show, but the previous show, talking about how we have to get better people it was a remarkable admission i felt that maybe they were underpaying their team and the stock has reacted accordingly. >> this morning bernstein initiates 159 on walmart they initiate kroger and target. >> and costco which this weekend -- i don't think it's going to be a blow out costco attracted people with inexpensive gasoline that november costco number was not good i like costco. costco is in good longer term. i like target. i thought that the entire piece was thoughtful, very thoughtful.

>> great point on costco on gasoline gasoline has not have a weekly increase in price since november >> i wonder if -- david, if you're jay powell, do you say gasoline, check, check >> i get it. going to go 50 bases points instead of 75. check. >> that's the opening bell and the big board. >> there we go if you're the fed, well, maybe there's too many ev manufacturers. they want a -- >> they want a what?

>> culling, district 13. >> may the odds be in your favor. mary barra with comments about advertising on twitter ford says 65% of ford dealers have agreed to sell evs. >> that's a big deal the f-150 electric which is sold out has enticed people ford stock has not been a winner at the same time i think he's doing everything he can. it's not bad i thought -- she does a positive story and nobody is listening. i don't understand positive story i saw the lineup it looks good. a lot of cash. but, no, everyone is saying so what eh there's a lot of eh.

>> there's a lot of eh don't you think that's a reflection of concern about overall demand >> yeah, but at the same time people are going to buy cars how many times have people said, listen, there's like -- friday is the beginning of a holiday. they want to go places i think steve shear is doing well with hertz. >> you do? >> yeah. >> did you see that settlement >> that settlement was supposed to wipe them out it did not i like that stock. it's because the country has changed. why doesn't anyone say there are many positives post pandemic in the way americans lead their lives and there's great opportunity? they don't i mean, other than the airline ceos, no one seems to realize

there's a great opportunity to pick up business you have to rethink the way you do business. fridays have to change companies have to recognize they have to run a different enterprise on friday they don't understand. friday is a different day. you should be thinking about other things for your employees to make it so that they want to be retained. if you don't do something on friday, they're going to go to a different place. i'm not talking about money. i'm talking about creativities a lot of my friends say i work friday what's the big deal? companies have to recognize there's ways beyond compensation to make people focus on friday the problem is lack of creativity about what to do with the fifth workday. >> you think we're living in terminal three-day weekends? >> i do. airbnb would tell you that's

true i'm not being facetious. if i were a ceo, i would say what should we do to make it so that we get our people focussed on friday without having to pay them more money? maybe do something, recognize it, that they're not working viably on friday i'm trying to come up with a thesis that has some validity. >> we're moving towards a four-day work week what's wrong with that france does it enjoy your life, man you're talking about your burial plans. >> interred with my mother >> would it be the worst thing in the world >> i'm saying i hear people come on our air and it's like what do we do friday what do we do friday think about it instead of coming on and being scared of it.

>> there's a frustration among some executives that people aren't working on fridays. >> be more creative. don't say well, i really lament this. >> i'm not sure what creative means. >> off site. >> a lot of tequila. >> no. that was at 11:00 at a desk. let's fire up the jets and go to tel aviv >> i want to talk about a deal you mentioned briefly, not necessarily because the company being acquired is up a lot, but it is, boeing is going down. >> nrg. >> they're down 11%. it's going to be acquiring vivint smart home. it's a home platform company whose mission is to help 2

million customers live intel intelligently and to provide a safer home it's having a positive impact on vivint it's 5.2 billion overall price tag and they're assuming a debt of $2.4 billion. vivint is benefitting a great deal. >> the company has been around since 1999 i didn't see anything super special about it nrg is a very good company i understand why people say why do we need this? >> they'll continue to balance its growth and return of capital will complete this over the next

year they say they intend to return 50% of return of capital, 50% growth capital as of 2024. half gets returned and a half goes into to growing the company. it's not a stock deal. it's response of share holders saying, hm, okay, or saying see ya later >> that group has been okay. has anyone been following the action in u.p.s. >> nobody has. >> it's down another three today. it was down big yesterday. going into the holiday season usually people say it's going to be a decent holiday season. >> we talked about the deutsche upgrade last week. >> that's why i think -- i've been just flummoxed about u.p.s. >> as to why the stock is declining in front of a holiday season >> there's a lot of costs that

make very little sense to me. >> are you getting reports of the consumer being strong ahead of the holiday season? i'm not. >> no, i'm not i think that macy's is having a decent quarter, but they can't seem to -- this whole friday thing. i'm sorry to be hung up on it. >> it makes sense. scott kirby from united saying if it weren't for cnbc the word recession wouldn't be in his vocabulary because he doesn't see it. >> he only starts watching at 9:00 obviously i look at the travel guy marriott was upgraded yesterday. every hotel is filled. every plane is filled.

the pandemic had a big effect on people and these people come on and never acknowledge that the pandemic changed -- as we would say in the business, the algorithm was changed. people don't do what they used to do. yet, everyone keeps thinking it's going to switch back. it's not switching back. >> it's not. your point is what once people are able to get out of house, they're all about experiences. >> they realize life is short. there was a psychological change in people because 1 million people died. that's a lot of people >> that goes back to our earlier conversation they don't want to work on fridays. >> i was looking at stephen king's twitter file. he said he knew so many people that died in the pandemic. i feel the same way. i vowed not to do the same thing as i was doing before this of course, i completely broke --

>> you're doing exactly the same thing. >> others have -- there's weddings i'm saying, david, people have changed their lives. they're going to -- sig is a good example people are changing their lives. they're doing things they're going out and getting married, getting engaged. >> they raised the guide 8%. >> the guide did much, much better ja j.pmorgan is -- you know what, georgia is going to lose, jenna. she's a big georgia fan. i'm taking michigan. i've had enough. ohio state, i've had enough. >> uh-oh. >> who else is not going to come on my show >> i'm going to talk about

act activism did you see this op-ed from brad smith that microsoft -- we'll talk about this activision deal and whether or not it's going to get challenged by the ftc. we'll talk about the eu and china early next year. brad smith said this is good for gamers some people are saying you'll get that $95 share deal done if you're putting op eds in the "journal" -- people are saying what he's trying to do is help those at the ftc staff exploit the divisions that may be there in terms of lena khan and what she wants to do and embolden the oppo opposition stock not doing much of anything we are getting closer to a decision it would seem from the

ftc in terms of whether they'll move to block it microsoft is ready to go to court. ready to take on the challenge. >> this is the one that they can really say, okay, enough. >> we hear staff within the ftc is frustrated by its leader, believes they have a didecent chance of losing >> what about -- >> that's a separate issue >> 700,000 union jobs. >> this is front and center. this is where the action is happening. by the way, the rationale for the deal itself, which smith talked about in the op-ed was interesting. i don't know if you caught this, jim. we want to offer consumers the option to subscribe to a cloud gaming service that lets them stream a variety of games on

mu multiple devices for one reasonable fee. >> this was the game stop killer it means i have to go to a private area and not be afraid game stop reports that -- the idea was you offer this and it would be -- they already have a combination package. i thought this was so good for the gaming consumer. >> they're trying to make that case to try to embolden the internal opposition at the ftc that says don't sue this we'll see. >> go for it go for a big win. >> by the way, i made this point before, there are those who believe that were the deal to break activision would be swamped with cash. a lot of the cash has been taken in and they're not using to buy back stock call of duty doing well.

there's a perception there might not be a lot of downside >> i think there's very little downside at this point activision is on a roll. they're doing better >> another upgrade today at edward jones after mkm and ray jay. >> let it go higher. i'm curious about the ftc. >> they haven't done it yet, jim. >> they should lay things out. here's what our real objective is i don't see who is hurt by this. is there a gamer who might say i can pit microsoft off against activision is there a writer of a game that could pit them i mean, i understand -- >> i'm listening i'm just reading my texts. that's the best way to stop him from talking, for me to read my texts. >> to show you're not listening

anymore. >> he gets very upset. >> i have a buy. i'm in the semi-finals how's that when it comes to anti-trust, every ceo is afraid of looking at another company because of the ftc. are you kidding? emerson did something brave. they're doing good things. i just find that a lot of companies are paralyzed and they don't think the president is pro capital, which is kind of obvious. >> he's meeting with some oil executives. >> that's big. they've been -- >> he's been asking for a meet. >> they were afraid they were going to be -- he didn't want them in the same room. better than trying to brow beat the saudis break bread with our guy. >> and the arizona appearance today where we expect to see -- >> jensen wong

lisa su. >> i've seen her on some list, not others. >> are you going to that >> yeah, to arizona, i'll be taking the private jet out there. >> dow is down 100 and utilities and staples the only sectors in the green. >> we started flat and it's got a little worse boeing is a bit of a drag on the dow. mixed open in terms of sectors china stocks opened on the upside again just now negative, but it was positive metals doing well. freeport has been on a tear. semis down a little bit. they were flat at the open and worsened in the last ten minutes and ark innovation risk on, risk off. the big focus today is going to

be the banks goldman saks is having a financial services conference. the banks got globbered yesterday. pnc, key corp. down 5, 6%. these regional bank stocks tend to move in line with the s&p 500. these are down 5 to 7% very strange jpmorgan up today. the focus is going to be what kind of presentation we'll see at this bank conference. not a lot of changes, for key corp., but vague concerns. the main one is generally concerned about a slow down in 2023 and a potential recession rates will be higher forhe econy and increase bad loans there's issues and concerns about increasing loan

provisions there was discussion about the positive contraction you have to borrow for it. there's a lot of vague concerns floating around. the conference has started we did have wells fargo's ceo speaking earlier, charlie sharp. didn't say anything too noticeable brian moynihan is speaking we'll get an update on the consumer from amex pnc and key corp., a lot of regional banks talking in the afternoon. brian moynihan speaking now. the only thing i saw he said the rate of growth in consumer spending is starting to slow, but the basic fact is big. consumer spending was strong this year so when you compare it to 2023 you have a number -- you have a very large base effect. keep an eye and see what he's saying here. carl, back to you. >> comments interesting on the income for next year

bob, thanks. take a look at bonds this morning. we're in the fed black-out window the two-year back close to 4.4 ten year down to 3.56. oil had a nice reversal, trying to close some losses, back to 77 back in a moment hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth.

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take a look at some of the s&p laggards david walked you through a minute ago down 10% meta is close behind "the journal" has a piece with regulators in europe that could limit meta's ability to target advertisers. we'll get to "stop trading."

well, we fell in love through gaming. but now the internet lags and it throws the whole thing off. when did you first discover this lag? i signed us up for t-mobile home internet. ugh! but, we found other interests. i guess we have. [both] finch! let's go! oh yeah! it's not the same. what could you do to solve the problem? we could get xfinity? that's actually super adult of you to suggest. i can't wait to squad up. i love it when you talk nerdy to me. guy, guys, guys, we're still in session. and i don't know what the heck you're talking about.

let's get to jim and "stop trading. >> deutsche bank has a list of major consumer names, including vicious cuts on things like moleson and kimberly estee lauder, last night i lapped to have the ceo, mr mr. kimbell of ulta, and estee

lauder is selling well there, too. look at that there's an opportunity stock's down 100 points. it's liked in china. it's liked here. i don't know go ahead there you go. >> they go to 266. they were 209. >> i got to tell you, that company is so well run duty-free is important, travel is important what really hurt, if you weren't going out in china, you didn't use their makeup now you're going out they use the makeup and they are gigantic in china. i think it's a fantastic call by deutsche bank. fantastic. >> how about tonight >> so, tonight we're just looking at a couple of -- actually, we're looking at some stocks that our viewers have told us to start looking at. we are going back to when -- we've been doing it, but our viewers are smarter than we are right now and they're bullish. our viewers are bullish. i'm not going to let them fall prey to -- in the long term they could be right it's not fair. they deserve better. they deserve better.

>> you'll give them better >> well, the long term -- in the long term we're going to be down >> maybe one day we will be. >> we'll see you tonight, jim. "mad money," 6:00 p.m. eastern time at the top of the hour bs don't miss goldman sachs' chief strategist david kostin, as the market is down to 3980 on the s&p. back in two. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies

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good tuesday morning we will come to another hour of "squawk on the street" live at post 9 of the new york stock exchange not a lot of earnings or data today, but plenty of conferences, which we'll get to. a lot of color commentary on the tape for the time being. a little follow-through coming off the worst session in nearly a month yesterday. >> yeah, of course, some of that color coming from our own network with interviews we've seen all morning we're 30 minutes into the trading session. three big movers we're watching. royal caribbean moving lower after getting downgraded at jpmorgan notes royal caribbean in particular -- or is particularly vulnerable to less favorable

market for raising capital given the timing of its future financial commitments. those shares are down 2%. cigna is heading higher, double expected by analysts. look at those shares up 19% right now don't miss ceo gina drosos on "closing bell" later this afternoon. and finally, nrg energy, those shares are slumping on news that the company plans to buy vivant smart home for $2 billion in an all-cash deal. vivan is up 32%. the broader market in the red, expectations of higher rates ahead and looming recession fears. this is jpmorgan jamie dimon talking about his outlook earlier this morning on "squawk. >> the risk we have is quantitative tightening. we've never had it before. ever in the lifetime of mankind. i look at that as something we

should be quite concerned about. you know, this bond rate has been going up 20 years it can't be suppressed anymore qt has just started. it's very possible -- if you have 2% inflation, you should have 4% bond today i don't look at this like it has to get better. obviously, it's a risk-on trade. but that mindset may change if inflation sticks around a bit longer. >> goldman sachs chief u.s. equity strategist david kostin at post 9 to talk about his outlook for the rest of the year and the year ahead great to have you back, dk welcome. >> great to see you. >> you've been doing work looking at hedge funds and mutual funds leaning into a bet that you could argue is soft landing-like, right? >> that would be the data we looked at, which is the ownership of mutual funds relative to the benchmarks and looking at hedge funds in terms of theirpopular positions. from a statistical basis or a track record, that portfolio of companies that are overweight

and popular among the hedge funds have had a long track record of outperforming. about 58% of the time they tend to outperform. you have a variety of companies in there for example, visa, you look at wells fargo, humana, some of the companies -- different industries where the analytics behind the mutual funds and hedge funds correspond and tend to overweight those stocks. >> is it fair to say that is a bet on a soft landing or a cyclical recovery? >> well, i think that's the view we would have. nose are stocks that tend to do well in that kind of environment. and that would be the back drop we look at, which is basically about 1% gdp growth rate, which is basically leading to modest sales growth at the top line basically, the idea of margins compressing would suggest that there's not much earnings growth, which is why the market would be flat in the coming year we look at companies more fundamentally driven that can operate in that muted back drop. >> to dig into that a little more, you note 2023 will be the

back of eps growth while 2022 was about valuation decline. what are your different scenarios, soft landing versus rece recession, for example, or stronger recession, for example? >> so, the baseline forecast is that you have modest economic growth but, unfortunately, there's not much earnings growth therefore, it relies solely on valuation to drive the return to the overall market and given where interest rates are and the likelihood interest rates are likely to rise, difficult to envision a scenario where you have multiples expand where we are now the multiple market trades 17 to 18 times that's around the 80 percentile. there are times the market multiple is higher, not that often. interest rates highly valued, maybe 5th percentile if valuations are at this level, and not much earnings growth,

you have basically a flat market on the other hand, if you had a recession, not the base case, but probably drop on the order of 11% next year that would suggest the market basically ends in year's time maybe 3750 so, i think 4,000 to 3750 is kind of a range you're likely to see. near term, quloun side risk, around 3,600 why is that the case because we have a scenario of negative earnings revisions. earnings have been revised down pretty significantly in the last several months >> i realize the recession scenario is not your base case but it does represent a big, i guess, void in terms of where stocks and -- could move next year and what those valuations could ultimately look like do you hold pat with your suggestions where to put your money regardless of the situation that pays out? >> the back drop that is most common in either a modest

economic growth environment or a recession is that inflation is likely to come down. inflation falling from above trend rates, that is consistent in both those scenarios. stocks that do well in that environment tend to be some of the health care companies, for example, consumer staples. those are stocks and industries, we can look at medical devices as examples of -- in fact, pharmaceutical, telecom stocks have done well in high inflation but falling inflation environment. that's likely to be the environment, whether we end be up in a recession or not that's, i think, the more important back drop. >> i'm curious what you're hearing from the people you speak to portfolio manager, whoever else you may run into you know, if you could -- what's their state of mind right now. do you think people are overly bearish? >> we know the positioning, david, is they are under -- relatively lightly positioned. that means higher cash balances in mutual funds, that means leverage in hedge fund community is relatively low.

evidence they are not super enthusiastic about the values in the market the question we get most frequently, which i find surprising, what is the upside scenario in my opinion, our base case is a reasonably optimistic base case scenario. the argument is why can't the market revalue higher? talking with morgan. it's not the base case but that's the question we often get. it may be because most fund managers are net long at the end of the day equity prices move higher. that's a commonality we see in the hedge funds, the mutual funds, the sovereign wealth funds, all the different verticals of the ownership categories is what people ask about. what's the more optimistic scenario. >> they're looking to try to get more optimistic, but doesn't necessarily mean they're there. >> in my opinion, you get more opportunity to be more optimistic later in the first quarter, second quarter when the market's hit 3600, not 4,000 that's my view >> meantime, goldman is below

consensus in terms of recession odds for next year but you do have a hard landing scenario, where we revisit with the low threes on the s&p. how do you think about that? >> well, the probability of recession is not imminent. i would make that statement based on the fact that unemployment rate is super low and wage inflation is pretty strong as a consequence of that, you have disposable person income, which is pretty strong and you have that which drives consumption. the consumption, the consumer is two-thirds of the economy. that's the logical argument behind the idea the economy continues to grow. what happens after the fed continues to hike, we'll see what happens in six months' time in the near term from a trading point of view, highly unlikely that we have a downturn. it's possible but that's not the base case. >> a lot of good work. your note on friday is getting a lot of eyeballs. >> thank you. >> congrats on that, david david kostin as we head to break, here's our road map for the rest of the

hour defense deals in focus as the army awards another multi, multibillion dollar program. the first contract for that. more on the company that beat out lockheed martin and boeing this morning. is china's zero covid an unmitigated disaster we'll discuss that with the man himself, stephen roach. coke and disney, carolyn aberson will join us with outlook on meta. a huge show ahead. go, go, go. sorry. nope. okay. fresh donuts - hot coffee! they deliver real time data and business forecasts when you need it. i think it was fine how it was. (air tool sound) to help you stay ahead of the curve... or you could use workday. the finance, hr and planning system that helps cfos make better decisions faster. on the other hand, we had a great fourth quarter. for a accelerate your decision-making world.

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comcast business. powering possibilities. perhaps harder than first thought. two firms lowered their 2023 global revenue forecast. this as media executives continue to warn of slowing ad spending joining us to discuss that and a lot of other things, and she's a board member of disney and coca coca-cola, former facebook head of advertising, carolyn joining us. >> great to be back. >> let's start off with the advertising business overall we certainly seem to be in a down cycle what are you hearing from the various executives you may speak to still in the industry >> i think the story is more nuanced. i don't see it as just a downward cycle if you look at q3 earnings, there were essentially three different buckets. there were meta, youtube, google

networks that were down. pint pinterest, snap and google search were up and the microsoft, tiktok and amazon up double digits. it's not just one blank story. there are companies where dollars are shifting, advertisers are finding the performance to be working and it's actually driving sales. the other big factor is retail media networks, which amazon is the largest share of that. it's close to 80% of it. that includes walmart, etsy, ebay those companies are definitely benefiting because advertisers are looking to figure out how to connect, if i spend a dollar, can i actually -- does it result in a sale? that's super important i'm actually cautiously optimistic about the advertising industry i don't see it as all negative if you look at history, and i've been through many cycles in almost 30 years, the marketers that invest during a recession, let's say we do have one, which i know all the guests this

morning were predicting a rocky 2023 the marketers that are investing during that period of time, often gain market share. i think it's about, are you delivering a platform that drives results for advertisers if you are, i think there's money to be spent. >> give us a little more specific you mentioned a couple of companies benefiting in this current environment. what is it they are doing or doing for the customer that is resonating and, therefore, gives people an opportunity to figure out what works in the future as well. >> absolutely. the biggest shift to hurt some of the largest players was the app transparency tracking. att, which is essentially the changes that apple made about a year ago to really -- consumers have to opt in to allow themselves to be tracked across apps i've seen different data, anywhere from 60% to 70% of consumers are not opting in. essentially third-party data is almost dead. what has then happened is advertisers had to shift to

build their own data customer loyalty programs and really understanding how you can form a one-to-one relationship with your own customers. what media networks are doing are try it more directly to the point of sale. that's valuable to marketers in search of good data. every marketer wants to spend responsibly. especially during a difficult and uncertain time where there's pressure from the cfo and the ceo suite and the c-suite in general. those dollars have to go further and they have to be spent wisely >> when iger talks about traditional tv being marched towards a precipice is will eventually fall off of, what's the endgame? >> linear tv is expected -- the latest data i've seen for 2023 is flat to upwards of 2% to 3% growth let's be clear, that is slowing down and declining we all are aware of that

you ask any young person and they are not watching linear tv. they are watching in either a subscription service, they're watching it when they want, how they want it so, what's happening is you see all the major media companies shifting to either subscription and connected tv services, and now increasingly adding advertising, which will be attractive for marketers because they love the opportunity to tell brand stories, which are typically 30 to 60 seconds in length can you do that really great in a lot of the streaming services. linear tv behavior is shifting, but marketers still need to reach people in order to sell their products, which i think is why i'm very bullish about this streaming and advertising opportunity down the road. >> i want to get your reaction to the fact that meta's oversight board is urging changes to the so-called vip moderation program basically suggesting that content moderation rules need a major overhaul some high-profile users were exempted from the internal system i realize you're focused on --

or were focused on advertising, but obviously advertisers play close attention to the content by which their ads are being placed i want to get your thoughts on this >> so, i think -- i haven't been at meta in a year and a half when they created the oversight board, i thought that was industry leading at its time because essentially these content decisions are so much more complex i remember vividly a meeting where we had a bunch of ceos in the room we showed them various pieces of content. they knew what our rules were. we asked them, what would you do with a piece of content? nobody agreed on anything. and i think it was illustrative of just how gray and nuanced these decisions are. i really believe in the power of the oversight board. i think it's a very effective use of making sure that decisions are made with a lot of different opinions at the table. >> expanding this conversation out to another social media network, twitter, we've seen advertisers there freeze or suspend some of their

advertising dollars on that platform amid concerns about quality control and where the future of that social media platform is headed then you get the twitter files which are suggesting and raising serious questions about this content suppression or even the potential for censorship in general, do advertisers and marketers need to be asking maybe different questions or defining their own parameters around what they want to see on social media networks,how they want to be placed on social media networks and what's considering a healthy or robust network in terms of content? >> no, it's a great question brand safety was a topic i spent an inordinate amount of my time over the last handful of years at meta and also within the industry in general. marketers care about the company they keep. they want to understand where their ads are appearing. and social media is a bit of the unknown for them and so, i think it's going to be increasingly important, and

there's a lot of tech solutions that are being built to help brands understand, where does their advertising appear is it safe content, what type of content. the technology companies, including twitter, by the way, have done a lot to make it much safer for advertisers. i respect the decision that sometimes they need to wait it out. when i was at meta, we went through periods of time where marketers paused and made sure we were taking the right steps at the end of the day, all the platforms and media companies exist for two things, to drive consumers and drive business growth for advertisers. >> your recent addition to the board of disney. i'm sure not busy there at all you said you believe in the future of ad-supported streaming. i'm curious of your overall views of whether streaming can become a profitable business that appeals to shareholders in terms of content spend and

subscription acquisition versus profitability. >> let me say as an absolutely new board member, i started the same day bob iger started. so, it was a wonderful - >> wow. >> yes, same day it was obviously wonderful news to have the privilege to work with a revered ceo and to see the welcoming that he had. it's just an honor and privilege to be on that board. i do think over time the model will sort itself out i think there are several things that have to happen. content at the end of the day is most important for a media company. you all -- i'm heard you talk in the morning what shows you watching and whether you tapped out and there isn't anything left to watch and yet there are endless amount of choices. you can sign up for multiple subscription services. you can pull out your phone and be entertained with three-second instagram reel. >> and tune out quickly.

>> consumers have choice the cost of developing content have gone up substantially i do think there needs to be some rationalization of how content is developed going forward. and in all likelihood, the consumers are going to need a more seamless experience right now it's hard to know exactly where your show is or which sports event you want to watch. you've got to go on and search for it, which service i need to subscribe to right now it's not set up to be as consumer-friendly overall i'm bullish because that's where the behavior is shifting we have to figure it out. >> you have to as a board member, you'll be dealing with it. restructuring, a word used 32 times in the annual report, disney's 10k rough times ahead for you in terms of a board member and watching the leadership of mr. iger as he tries to navigate this world >> i have huge confidence in leadership i have the privilege of serving on both coca-cola and disney to see the leadership on both

sides thinking very pragmatically and also optimistic about the future and knowing what the core assets are. so, our job as a board is to support the decisions and the long-term growth of the companies so that we're satisfying all stakeholders. from what i've seen, again, i'm brand-new, i'm very, very optimistic about the future. >> apparently, you'll have to be thinking about succession at disney that's a story nor another day we appreciate you taking time. >> thank you for having me. textron shares are popping after getting a new deal with the army for next gen aircraft details coming up next oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network.

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look what the cat dragged in. diminishes wrinkled skin in jtrust me.ays. you call that cute? ooh! with the paws? with the hat? it might be a down day for major averages but check out textron, top performer in the s&p 500 after they won the u.s. army's next gen helicopter award, beating out a team of lockheed martin sikorsky and boeing the future long-range assault aircraft, or flraaa, has been a

high-stakes, highly anticipated program to replace the sikorsky black hawk fleet over its lifetime, this is a program that could total $70 billion, according to army officials who met with a handful of reporters, myself included, last night if it's sold to allies, that number could shoot even higher textron's bell unit will continue to develop the v-280 tiltrotor with cowen noting it is a generational win that rejuvenate's bell's military franchise. they have seen sales decline in recent years wall street did see textron with favorite to win with, quote, constructionally better aircraft, according to jeffries. initial award of $1.3 billion. this comes after expected award timeline slipped and slipped again. it's such a big program.

there's anticipation a lockheed team will potentially protest this outcome, which the army's top acquisition official doug bush acknowledged last night saying that scenario has been accounted for in the army's timelines. now, as for lockheed and boeing, the response there, it is, quote, we remain confident defiant x is the transformational aircraft the u.s. army requires to accomplish missions today and into the future we will evaluate our next steps after reviewing feedback from the army textron shooting higher on this. shares of lockheed, last i checked, trading slightly lower. meantime, still to come, is china still investable the fxi awfully close to a two-month high 'ldiusth with morgan stanley's stephen roach in a moment

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welcome back to "squawk on the street." investors closely watching for any changes in china's zero

covid curbs with additional easing to zero covid policies expected tomorrow. here with his outlook, yale senior fellow, stephen roach he's also out with a new book "accidental conflict: america, china and the clash of false narratives." stephen, it's great to have you back on the show i want to get to the topic specifically of the book, but first, all of the investor back and forth, dare i even use the word after last week, enthusiasm about the possibility of china moving towards reopening efforts. your take. >> they're tweaking the policy, morgan, but they're not backing down from the basic view that they alone, among the great powers of the world, have been the most successful in limiting fatalities since the outbreak of covid-19 so, yo, there's some relaxation of testing and quarantines, but

the focus on really being tough and clamping down an outbreak, which is really almost impossible to do in an omicron variant dominated pandemic, i think there's still largely wedded to the basic philosophy of that approach. >> in light of that, how would you expect this to play out in china? how would you expect leadership there to navigate this scenario as we look to 2023 given the fact we know zero covid is having an economic impact there >> well, this year is a lost year the growth rate is probably going to be below 3% so, for a chinese economy we're used to seeing grow in 7% to 9% zone, that is the functional equivalent of a recession. but as they relax and reopen at

the margin, you know, in the months ahead, provided they can pull that off, which is still a little iffy, you can expect a snapback, to some extent next year, that will be augmented by the measures they take and the support in the property sector the snapback, i think, will be less vigorous than we're used to in china and will be more limited because of long-term growth problems they have reflecting the demography of an aging working age population and productivity challenges, especially in the once vibrant technology sector. so, it's not the china we used to know, but it's going to be somewhat better next year than certainly was the case this year. >> stephen, speaking of the china you used to know, how would you advice clients these days to approach this country at this point, given not just the

lockdowns, the changes in regulation, the leadership for life now with xi jinping and so many other issues that people are dealing with, what do you tell people when they say, hey, should i invest in china >> it's not a black and white answer there are some areas of china that i think have run up recently and should continue to do so. consumer discretionary face-to-face services. services is still a big theme of development going forward in china. but the internet platform companies where they have really, i think, put a damper on so many of these activities, the companies and the wealth generation potential of the entrepreneurs that drive them, i think, that's going to be much tougher in the years ahead

look, i've been a china bull, as you know, for maybe 25 years and i'm definitely much more cautious right now as the autocracy has much tighter grip on the system than i ever dreamt back in the good old days. >> that's interesting. yesterday morgan stanley upgraded mic china they argued, obviously, the acceleration of covid relaxation, property market stabilization. they say the regulatory reset is wrapping up. they argue there's early signs of u.s./china bilateral communication getting better are those four ideas invalid or just not strong enough >> well, carl, you'll never get me to be critical of my old company and the economics team that i built but i think there is a case, as i said just a couple minutes ago, for a short-term pop.

the question is, what happens beyond that, beyond 2023 i'm still pretty nervous about the regulatory restraints on the once very dynamic internet platform companies i think the demographic headwinds are very, very challenging. so, the working age population shrinks, as it's starting to do right now, you actually need an acceleration of productivity growth to offset that. and i think the case for accelerating productivity growth over the medium to longer term is now really a serious question in my own mind so, i think, again, the medium to longer term growth outlook is worrisome, it's challenging. but that doesn't disallow the possibility of a cyclical pop

based on next year's rebound >> meantime, we're seeing this decoupling in certain aspects, tech being one of them, most recently with semiconductor and controls put in place there, between the u.s. and china there is a focus on the heels of russia's invasion into ukraine that we could potential will he see an accelerated timeline for china looking to retake taiwan in some form or fashion. it is raising questions. this came up at a defense conference i was at over the weekend, the reagan national defense forum, about this idea of economic weaponization, where things like semiconductors are concerned, if you were to see china make a move on taiwan, for example. i want to play some sound from lockheed martin's ceo on this topic from over the weekend and get your response. take a listen. >> the semiconductors we need include the sub-10 or sub-6 nanometer chips but most are

much less sophisticated than that and almost all of that production is moving to three places -- china, south korea and taiwan and the real issue of a nightmare scenario, not for the defense industrial base alone, but for the entire economy is for china to withhold its sub-10 nanometer chips, for it to blockade taiwan and intimidate south korea in a way that none of them can export to the global economy anymore. it's the russia play with natural gas. >> your thoughts >>. >> well, a lot to worry about and, you know, we certainly saw what happened in the aftermath of nancy pelosi's visit last august, the presumptive speaker, next speaker of the house, kevin mccarthy, has promised a quick visit to taiwan you under the presumption he's elected speaker early next year.

so, that's -- you know, in a month or two and i would expect a similar, possibly even tougher response from china i think at that same conference, morgan, the number two official in the pentagon, deputy secretary of defense actually used the word war in conjuring up the nightmare scenario between the u.s. and china over taiwan i certainly hope that is not the case that's why i wrote this book called "accidental conflict. which charges and countercharges that are, unfortunately, based a lot on false presumptions or false narratives bounce back and forth between these two super powers, the high octane fuel these false narratives could lead you into an accidental conflict and taiwan is obviously an area to look at china's partnership with russia

in prosecuting this horrific war in ukraine is another. you know, the long-standing problems in the south china sea are a third. so, there's plenty to worry about, which is why i end the book with, i hope, a constructive plan to bring these two nations back to the table with a more realistic agenda of what to discuss. >> stephen roach, great to have you on today i look forward to reading the book. >> thanks, morgan. europe may have filled most of its natural gas storage this year, but it did so using more than half of that as gas from russia now nearly all of that russian supply, of course, is turned off and the big question now is how and where europe will find enough gas to last through next year. and that's where american energy comes in our brian sullivan is live from the purt of rotterdam in the netherlands.

he has a look at the lng stocks with the most upside potential for this overall story >> reporter: david, thank you. listen, you were down with exxon and that awesome documentary you get sort of the size and scope of places like this. i mean, it just blows your mind at how big this industry, lng, has gotten in almost no time let's put the future demand in context. of course, i'm not even talking about china. this is just europe. with that russian gas offline, maybe forever, by the way, the iea in what some call a bullish estimate, actually, meaning undercounting, suggest there's a hole of 30 billion cubic meters. well, these are big numbers. what does 30 billion cubic meters mean? to put that in perspective, we reached out to tuler engineer and said, what does that mean? 10 to 12 average size lng ships

equals 1 billion cubic meter 30 times 10 and 12 that means to fill europe's hole, they're going to need another 300 to 360 lng tankers a year obviously, the u.s. doesn't have that much. doesn't have that much export capacity particularly if china comes back online but it shows you what the future demand may be. all right. who are some of the players? there's names you know freeport, venture global private, but other names i do want to caution our viewers that some of these are highly volatile they get pushed around tulerian down to 2.5 take that with a grain of salt there's chart industry that stock has fallen 42% in a month. lng is not their primary business highly volatile. analysts see a lot of upside there. this is one i thought you would know, david, because it's a guy

you know that runs this. i was surprised. remember fortress investment group, west edens? this is his lng company, new fortress energy. analysts see about 40% upside there. again, highly volatile you probably knew, david, i was shocked wes edens was in the lng business, a well-known guy in financing and venture capital -- >> he's a friend of the show >> we've had him on a number of times, wes edens, brian, including recently talking about this very subject. he had some interesting thoughts on it as well. and then, of course, there's freeport -- >> reporter: that was my favorite episode i watch every day. >> yeah. we know, that private company which has obviously huge terminals as well. always amazing to see you out there, brian i know -- it doesn't capture just the enormity of the infrastructure at places where you are right now, does it >> no.

can you hit this i don't know what that is. some sort of offshore drilling platform they're going to float out here this is the biggest port in europe, david. giant windmills. i love the juxtaposition of the, quote, old fossil fuel and the new windmills. this is netherlands, entirely under sea level. tomorrow, by the way, we'll focus on the renewable side, talk about hydrogen. i want everybody out there watching in texas, oklahoma, louisiana, working in the fields, oil fields, to feel good about what they're doing because, i'm telling you, i've had a lot of people come up and say, thank you, america, for shipping us liquefied natural gas because if they didn't get gas from us, and norway and some other places, algeria and others, if they didn't get that gas, they're not sure what they would do so, anybody watching out there in midland or odesa, feel good, they know where it's coming from >> great stuff, brian. appreciate it very much. brian sullivan in the netherlands this morning. checking in on the chips,

the smh up more than 10% in the last month top holdings include taiwan semi, unveiling plans for a second manufacturing site in arizona this morning raising that overall u.s. investment to more than $40 billion. company will host the president at its plant in phoenix, which is set to open by 2024 later this afternoon shares of tsm down more than 30% for the year to date although, we're watching the broader index as well th twihe s&p getting close to 3950. don't go away. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to... nasdaq 100 innovations like... wearable training optimization tech. uh, how long are you... i'm done.

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welcome back as we continue to bring you interviews from my time at the reagan national defense forum, i sat down with nsa director to discuss how the war in ukraine has focused attention on cyber as a war-fighting domain, how the threat is evolving and how the agencies, which sit together

under what's called a dual hat structure, focused on foreign threats both defensively and offensively, partner with and advise the private sector. take a listen. >> one year ago, on this day, we sent a hunt-forward team into kyiv, ukraine. we're all talking about ukraine today. so, i think one of the things i'd like to share is what have we learned in a year first of all, we learned presence matters we have put people into the ukraine, they stay there for 74 days before the war began, they came back and they hardened networks in ukraine. secondly is the tremendous role of the private sector. being able to leverage the private sector a number of different cyber security providers, a number of different companies that have been able to strengthen, again, what ukraine was able to do >> given the fact that we are having this conversation, what has that meant in terms of lessons learned and how it's changed in terms of a threat landscape? >> i think, when we think about

the threat, we think about it in a much different way today in terms of how do we get to scale? i mean, we see our adversaries that are becoming much more sophisticated, at greater scale, at greater speed how do we deal with that we deal with that mainly with the private sector let me give you an example at the national security agency, we have a cleared facility where we deal with the defense industrial base. almost 80% of the defense industrial base was able to be able to give and get from nsa. so, the sharing of information, tremendously helpful. >> it was interesting here at the forum, brad smith from microsoft talked about in his panel the fact that what we saw play outer, the invasion of ukraine, it started on a cyber level about 12 hours before we actually saw russian soldiers enter into the country he also pointed out in recent weeks we've seen some attempted attacks in the region that microsoft has picked up, that masqueraded as ransomware but tied back to russia. how does it speak to cyber and

the -- i guess, increasingly importance of it as a war-fighting domain? >> as brad was talking about this morning, i think it's instructive that, again, this is integration in terms of what do we see being done in cyber and what is being done with actual military forces. that's the trend so, one of the things the trend. one thing we have seen is the fact you have to have insights in terms of what our adversaries are doing. that's what dwe do so well, working with other companies >> what is the point at which a cyber battle becomes kinetic >> we should think of it differently in terms of we see adsaries are going to use cyber capabilities it's going to be a combined effort being able to take down communications, why tanks roll through an area, that's the future >> ransomware, i guess walk me through what that situation looks like and how you're helping the private sector and how you're helping the

government to navigate that. >> so, i think an inflection point in our country was in the spring of '21 when colonial pipeline happened and we discovered 43% of our oil products are transiting this pipeline that had been attacked with ransomware. what we did is come together to say, what are the insights we have how do we provide those insights to the fbi and sisa and inprivate sector to further illuminate what's going on we also have tremendous technical talent that understand what our adversaries are doing >> of course, the nsa or the general will tell you that the nsa and cyber commander are both hiring in 2022, the nsa released 24 unclassified cyber vulnerability advisories to the public which gets back to the ransomware threat also in the microsoft piece of the conversation, they had

attributes an attack to a group in russia back around november 10th that they released that information. microsoft just yesterday, guys, saying that they're preparing for a russian cyber offensive against ukraine this winter. you can see the full interview with the general at cnbc.com >> meantime, still ahead on "tech check," is the microsoft activision deal going to come down to call of duty we'll dig into a new op-ed from the president of microsoft, brad smith, in about ten minutes. no matter your purpose, at pnc private bank we will work with you every step of the way to help you achieve it. so let us focus on the how. just tell us - what's your why?

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after 53 years of service, boeing is retiring the 747 to bet big on a new jumbo alternative. phil lebeau is live from the boeing line for the last day of 747 assembly, and he has more on this historic moment phil >> huge day for boeing, david. this is the last 747 that will ever be built by boeing and rolled out of this hangar later tonight. capping off 55 years of a plane that inspired the term, the jumbo jet. what's the legacy here the first one went into service in 1970. more than 1500 built

400 of them are still flying, most of them as freighter aircraft boeing has primarily been building 747s as freighters over the last several years the last commercial one that was delivered was in 2017. and when they deliver this aircraft early next year, then the question becomes, what does the wide body backlog look like for boeing they have an extensive backlog but we'll trochabout the 777-x being the key to the future. whether it's the 777, 787, or 767, a lot of people are questioning when do we see the 777-x. the first flight was in 2020 it was originally supposed to enter service next year. that's not happening until 2025. that is going to be a primary focus especially for the freighter market in the future the 777-x doesn't go into service until 2025 end of an era, guys. end of an era in a facility that was erebcted to build the 747

back in the late '60s. >> yeah. historic day, and good to have you there. phil lebeau, again, with the end of the 747 >> speaking of the end, of course, the end of our show. tomorrow, we're going to have bob bakish join us that's going to do it for us on "squawk on the street. "tech check" starts now. >> good tuesday morning. welcome to "tech check." i'm carl quintanilla with deirdre bosa and jon fortt today is the microsoft activision deal going to come down to call of duty we'll break down microsoft's olive branch to sony today is there uncertainty at the top of salesforce. stock at its lowest level since march 2020 have two key executives recently departing. later, binance tried to connect the narrative, and two wall street firms with opposite