year >> as we've said all week lodge, suv a busy week for the sell-side conferences now maybe there's a quiet period, so to speak. >> yes. >> and we'll see you tomorrow. we'll see you tomorrow "fast" is now. right now on "fast" a four-day losing streak crude falling to the lowest level since the beginning of the year the worrying signs plus chinese tech in the emerging market seemingly defying calls for a global recession. later, spongebob squarepants, shares of paramount dropping as the ceo warns that the advertising revenue for the fourth quarter will not be good. we have a full house tonight.

we start off with the potential canary in the coal mine, shares of blackstone falling nearly 4% today, since their lowest level. the stock has hammered in recent days, as the asset managers face mounting withdrawals, forcing it to off-load properties are those troubles a bigger sign we've been talking about this for some time. we know investors want their money back, in droves, to the ele element. >> i think where there's smoke, there's fire kudos who dan, by the way, who i think in the spring, when blackstone was 120, jay-z was

here -- not that jay-z. >> of blackstone. >> yes now it's all coming to fruition. in terms of the stock, though, you have to ask yourself, is this news going to signal a short-term bottom? i think it may >> the web took off from 65, it was probably late 2020, what a lot of stocks about after the election, after the vaccine news, it went from 65 to 150 in a straight line. again, this is a financial company, you know, and it just made no sense. we've seen it again and again. for me, the trader hat, i'm too dumb to understand most of the businesses, but when joe was on here, he was talking the bl blackstone book. so i suspect the stock will round trip back to 65. >> we've talked again and again about what got inflated, what

sort of benefited from free money, basically the ability to buy up all this real estate effectively. we start to reverse that and we're seeing the other side of that, at this point. >> i think calling this the canary in the coal mine is silly. it's the ostritch in the coal mi mine ostrich, i like them. we've seen this unwinding. there's multiple sectors that have benefit fred it >> i think there's a combination of things. retail pressure has already been there. look at utilities and yield instruments. these are terrible charts, folks. let's get back to why people are investing in reits i don't think a lot of that as

changed. if you think about low volatility, fixed-rate returns, and you think about the run on these assets, this is not -- this is not what's going on with cmos and where we were back in 2008 but i think you have a case here where these are illiquid assets. hedge funds will tell you we're protecting you from yourself by putting a gate up, because we want to limit the volatility in a portfolio. by the way, this isn't just blackstone, this is cvre, this is blackrock, and these are some of the biggest funds in the world, especially for wealthy and high net-worth individuals >> there's not little faith that rents will continue to rise. that's why people want their money back they don't have that faith in the markets. that, for me, is a huge signal

that people are not confident in this economy whatsoever. >> huge. we're coming up to the three-year mark of covid lockdowns. why should there be any faith of getting back to semblance of normal if things do turn around, there's ample time to get back in these names. >> let's get more on this situation with david faber who joins us on set. cnbc royalty. >> no, it's like he 'on the -- what's the big thing with the rocks? >> mount rushmore. >> this better be good stuff now. >> i've been walking around in the rain in midtown. sure, i'm available. >> how concerning is this? >> it's not as if there's something nefarious, you talk about the low rate benefiting the purchase of real estate, but

it also benefited the yield. you talked about the ras, as a high yielding product make you get some asset appreciation. we've been following it the last year, year and a half. it's been around for six years, but it was taking billions of months obviously many investors were looking at gladstone and saying you're taking 1.25 off the top of this things, and by the way, there were 70 billion most recently you're talking about a billion of fee-related income every year what's interesting, melissa, if you look at the publicly traded reits, they do it every month. the expectation is things are going to start to come down. those people were start to get the nav, they did well, so many wanted out, they hit the limit

for the month, so they've been gated. >> no surprise, blackstone had a statement, the spokesperson said they have ample liquidity. part of that capital was floating rate loans. i was wondering your take. when i hear floating rate in a rising rate environment, that's a red flag to me. >> i don't think they'll have concern as meeting redemptions under the agreement, up to 5% a quarter. i think you also have to watch -- they did a big deal last week. that will take in some money they will continue to sell some of these assets. you know, they know what they're doing in real estate, but it doesn't mean they're immune to the marketplace. we'll have to see what the next

marks are. >> does it have any rammedifications for the broader market blackstone put a lot of eggs in this basket for 18 months and it paid off handsomely. to moe this is a type of the iceberg type of stuff, interms of what mel said -- cheap money, making bets they shouldn't have made thoughts on that >> i'll leave it to you guys in the in terms of the market implications there's ras, who say this is an opportunity to get out with a capital appreciation, and re-deploy, and obviously what's only nine months later or whatever it is, a much higher rate environment, yes, any number of others, what was a fairly high rate, and you have to keep an eye o the broader

implications, you tell me. i think it's a good question to be asking, but i don't know at this point >> when i think about other reits, it seems like that would be additional pressure on the market i would imagine that would put pressure on prices overall i know you're not a commercial real estate experts, but -- >> that's a key question since i started reporting on this, many real estate investors have been interested i would get e-mails from people who are in that business, because they are -- first of all, they were a voracious buyer, so they were always bit in your judgmenter one poten potentially. if you were a seller in that period, you were happy that blackstone was there they did well on the sale they did last week. they have a lot of assets that they ball well, but certainly

there's potentially some pressure on prices to create more liquidity again, this is not -- >> they're really not, and if you think -- >> i mean -- >> it's not as though they put them in last week. it was always that's what you're signing up for, but of course during the period when they were taking in assets, where you were getting a 5%, let's call it, return nobody was thinking about it the return from inception is they have $1.4 billion in cash and there's a credit facilities of almost $8 billion i think there's good news here, too, if you think about the inflation prospects of the biggest inputs in inflation are owner equivalent, rents and rental properties, this is certainly going to help the inflation story. to be clear, when you think

about commercial real estate -- >> bad news is good news. >> it absolutely is. and for blackstone, this has been a juggernaut in terms of an earnings profile i think the biggest issue here is a weigh on earnings. >> there's a stock story, and then the whole, this is great news if you want the fed to stop, right? >> and stock-specific story. consensus estimates for earnings and sales for next year, basically flat, and expected to move up in 2024. you think the dividend yields, you lotter it goes, the fatter that gets. and as david said, the balance sheet is in good shape when you think about it from an individual securities standpoint, this stock is going to be an unusual value we spend time earlier talking about some moves, and that is likely to play off very nicely i'm curious how those two

barbell this economic, i think what they're doing in insurance sets up well. >> insurance has become an hour, since it became an -- or let's call it alternative asset management for sure. i will keep an eye on it, like you will this is an asset-gathering juggernaut the likes of which we have rarely seen, but it will slow, we no that we'll have to see in other areas as well. investors now have opportunities that go far beyond have been to look for a higher-yield. but simply -- >> david, it is a pleasure to have you here. >> this was so nice. >> stop by again sometime. >> great to have you focus on blackstone for a while we rarely talk about them in the morning. i'm glad you spent time on it.

>> thanks for coming by. david faber of the mount rushmore of cnbc >> i throw mel on it, because i sort of have to. >> she's getting there >> you've put in 30 years, you have to be on it. >> when dan did call out joe many months ago, it made sense in retrospect. when you put so many of your eggs in that housing basket, the sun also sets. i think it's an interesting company. the redemptions are interesting. who knows. i don't think it's indicative of a blackstone necessarily the stock at these levels, to me, makes sentence on valuation. >> guy was talking about sell first, ask questions later in the context of redemptions, but it feels like that's what's going on as well >> in fact, in just in the last

few weeks, we've seen the treasury yield go for 4.3% down to 3.5%. joe is a very smart guy. people tweet at us all the time. you're talking a book. trust me, nothing in the market can move a book, but they're clearly talking their book i assume the house view has changed a bit since joe was on 3 to 6 months ago. >> most guests who come on cnbc talk their book. we're not singling out joe >> when the smartest guys are talking about real estate, i want to listen to them it's with some irony their stock is now a yield product, too. it always was, probably 6.5% used this is a big part of the bubble that came out of the zero

percent interest rates, but the dynamic of where we've seen real estate i will say these types of assets are the places where you see some of the biggest funds in the world that are actually invested, and this is a painful time. our next guest says bank charts with chris. what do you see? >> i think we considered last week, you know, we're a week removed from what was reviewed as a risk-on powell speech i think when you put this in context of the banks in particular which have acted very poor since then, it's a remind who are liquidity was so ample for so long, it seeps into every nook and cranni n cranny i think the bank stocks are

suggestive we haven't seen the end of this trouble. just note, banks never took out their 200 day. yesterday, negative two standard deviate on the move, particularly one that's below the 200-days you have to open your eyes it tends to give you some type of message when you look at other charts here, in particular, a 20-day low on the kw bank index a within-month low when you're in the down trend, if you're long, you have to exercise the sell discipline it's a message to get away, get to the sidelines that's a recipe for more problems we also like to think of banks relative a couple slides here that i

think speak to a risk-off environment. this is banks relative to gold paper versus rock. this peaked all the way back at the start of the year. the most recent rally cannot make a new high. they continue t. i think, to suggest risk off very similar here, s&p relative to gold. a rally in the s&p, but storks broadly made for progress. what is the message there? when we look to hard assets outperforming, i think it's reflective of a big change of investor psychology and risk behavior this is all the way back to 2011 when liquidity was simple, financial assets outperformed. when it contracts, hard assets outperform i think this is the beginning of an important shift then, lastly, just to go to our

last chart here, it wouldn't be a problem if citi wasn't involved i think it's hard to majesty gro - citigroup is below -- if you because citi all the way at the lows back in 2009, you have lost money. so i think it's a concerning set of charts when we think about what the message is with the banks right now. >> chris, thank you. >> thank you. we got a lot of warnings today. we heard from jamie dimon this morning. we ahead from brian moynihan, david solomon. julie, where do you stand? >> it's hard to create true differentiation.

i mean, the left of differentiation between the financial institutions, banks in particular, is difficult you're seeing deterioration in the regionals, among consumer finance. consumer isn't as strong as we would like in addition to being a sector that doesn't have a lot of differentiation, i think it has exposure to reducing credit quality. >> jamesie dimon's comments were pretty interesting this morning. i know karen was watching closely, but $is.5 trillion possibly saved, but that will run out in the next year or so that's troubling for the consumer. >> everybody wants to points to the consumers' balance sheet, but now the debt is either side of $5 trillion credit card debt north of a trial union, in and of itself is a huge numb are everyone citi,

chris brought it up. it's always a poster child. >> when there's trouble somewhere, you can be sure city is involved. i was actually hearing some upside calls by city a week or so ago we've been talking about this range of where we expect, after a nice rally there could be a bit of a comeuppance. banks sold off aggressively, and then people realized there hasn't been that credit moment i think we sold them first coming up, this stock has been on a rally in recent weeks. first, an earnings alert on toll brothers we'll have the details from the quarter, next. "fast money" is back in two.

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welcome back to "fast m money. dianswera, what can you tell us?

>> it closed out its fiscal year in the company's history much of that is based on backlog before mortgage rates shot higher it was also boosted by a gain from a settlement related to a natural gas leak in 016. in q4, delivered homes were up 13%, but new net signed contracts, down 60%. the dramatic increase in mortgage rates presents a challenging market, many home buyers, and looking for sinclair it also noted there was no discernible change halfway through the first quarter. that's important, because mortgage rates came down off their october highs. it nearly added that they will continue making appropriate price adjustments at 2023 progresses appropriation means down, melissa. >> diana, that down 60% contract

signings, that's year on year? >> yeah. >> historically, is that still a high number? >> i couldn't say exactly, looking at that number, but we're expecting to see that from all of the builders. the weird thing, though, is that we did see sales of homes bumped up in, because the builders were buying down the mortgage rates but looking at the signed contracts, it's not surprising, especially given toll brothers' price point. >> julie, are you a buyer of home builders? >> not really. i think there's a lot of things that need to get undone. so many buyers are stuck in their homes because they have fantastic mortgages. they don't want to move. i think that's causing a lot of static, friction in the market for home builders s. they have

already spec'd it out. they can only pay people so much to buy their houses. >> why would you buy the stock here the company just said, and diana just said, they're adjusting prices down. jamie dimon this morning said they're expecting a mild to a hard landing or a recession in 2023 so you look at the stock, how poorly it trades, down from 75, when everything was going berserk, whether blackstone was trading, now at $75. the stocks have more room to the down side, unless youty there's some magic bullet down there, and financially related companies in such a weird macro environment, the way they did the up side, this is not 2008. we don't have a systemic risk.

we have a lot of weird dynamics. >> yet, if you look at this fourth quarter, it came in at $5.60 on eps, which blew away even the highestend. the revenue was better the magic bullet couple times in in ten-year yields the 75 to 45 might have been encapsulated everything we just talked about. >> though 3.5%, 5.2%, wherever the yield is at now, maybe it's down because it's telling you something. >> what? >> the people buys these homes are white-collar workers, who are now starting to feel the layoffs. >> why buy a homebuilder in this environment? when we think they've been outperformers in their group. >> no thank. here's what's up next.

>> announcer: defying gravity. that's what our tim seymour says, what name does he see flying higher here plus pressure mountsing at par a mount. shares hitting spongebob squarepants today. you're watching "fast money," live from the sdnaaq marketsite in times square. we're back after this.

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don't look now, but baba is breaking out, rallying more than 40% since late october

seymour says it's, quote, unquote defy ing. what is so wicked about this >> it's defying gravity there's been a story we've been talking about on the way down. i joke the other night we pretty much called the bottom on china when we opened the show on china uninvestable since that point, i think baba is up 45%, but there are reasons for it the china reopening is something that isn't going to happen overnight. baba reported two weeks ago or so that you have a sense that it's a softening e-merit demand, but i think it's as much to do with what i think is almost a peace treaty between the government and these big tech

companies. they have kisseded ring, suffered badly, settled with ant financial a few weeks ago, and i've been adding to it here, i've been nibbling at baba, and i think this trade has more to do. >> xi jinping had two choices -- we're going to continue with covid policy, and dig in your heels and go forward, or we're going to ease restrictions, and we saw an easing of restrictions, so is now china investable we seal it's willing to make some concessions that was the day, if memory serves, that big gray thing, what's that called elephant, the one with the memory >> with a trunk. >> we talked about it here traded over 100 million shares closed at 63, this is the inflection point you've had at least 35% to 50%

rallies, and we're about to embark on one. stocks rallied, and to tim's point it still has higher to go. >> listen, when you talk about what has happened in china around the zero covid, i think it's window dressing i don't think there's anything going on here, and i don't think that's why the stock has rallied. to tim's point, they just spent the last year cracking down. so maybe just easing a bit of pressure, is it enough to lift it off negative sentiment. >> i think the real challenge is we don't know what's happening there's all these reports that it's happening, but if you look, there are other reports saying movement has been very restricted, so it's hard to be sure, but let's it's not going to be a huge impact. everyone just went out to

restaurants and traveled i think it's important to keep in mind how it plays out for us, it's still not investable. the white house is calling it one of the largest foredirect investments $40 billion to build two taiwan semiconductor manufacturing chip plants. what does it mean for the chip trade? more on that ahead. meta metdltdown, that's nex. ♪ ♪ wow, we're crunching tons of polygons here! what's going on? where's regina? hi, i'm ladonna. i invest in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to the nasdaq-100 innovations, like real time cgi. okay... yeah... oh. don't worry i got it! become an agent of innovation with invesco qqq

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on markets today major indices down again the dow down about 950 points over the past two days, s&p 500 four straight days of losses energy one of the worst performers today check out a couple positive moves. pinterest jumping after elliott investment got a board seat. and mongodb, the cloud database beating expectations, giving

positive guidance for q4 even with the gains, though, shares are down 65%. meta shares down more than 6% after the eu privacy regulators said the company cannot run ads based on user data what does it mean for the stock. brian, how big of a deal is this >> if it goes through, it's a big deal i have a hard time believing it will go through. it could be terrible for consumer, for small businesses imagine you want to go to london and want to be a metal band, but you get targeted with taylor swift. you go to wimbledon, and they target you for the cornhole championship down the street this is absolutely absurd, and i think it lacks any type of real understanding of what the consumer wants, what is good for

the businesses behind this, and again, i think that the likelihood of this going through is low, but if it goes through, it's obviously another blow to the meta story i have a hard time believing it will go through. what was the loophole within gdpr that permitted it to get this far was it the contractual obligation notion, where it was understood that consumers had to give up a certain amount of personal information in order to use the platforms? >> yeah, gdpr was a whole other situation. they have obviously raked downo content private side of. i'm a believer in this what i'm not a believer is, when you're on the platform, you are consuming as a consumer, you are making a choice. it gets better if you tell the something what you like, and

ultimately if i'm looking a tennis or music, i want to target music i like, not music they're guessing on. so i think that ultimately, again, if it -- if you opt in as a consumers and it's inside the ecosystem, they're not selling it to anyone, it's inside their four walls, i have a hard time believing how this is bad for the consumer from my per peck tiff, it hurts small businesses in europe i think it will hurt sports, and hurt across the board. i don't understand it, to be quite honest i think, again, it's not final it's up to meta to appeal it, too. this is the tip of this, but i have a hard time believes it's going to go through, at least in the current form as discussed. >> when you hit a back of the envelope, thinking about the significant number of people who opt out, don't surrender their

personal information, the ads are no longer good you get a cornhole ad instead of wimbledon, et cetera, does that equal the down 8%, or is part of that the huge run-up being peeled back? >> i think it's the pullback of zuckerberg not letting heads go, and then a few weeks later changing his mind. i think part of it is the give up, i think part of it is the broader tech drawdown. our constitutional investors are tactically bearish again, i think tech is in the penalty box in general you saw that yesterday and today. we need them to clear the deck before people feel adventurous.

>> metallica meadowlands august '23. >> i'm in. >> we talk about the dynamic with tiktok. we've talked about the headlines and what they could mean use you quantify what this could mean from a income perspective and any thoughts on the regulatory quagmire. >> it's hard to quantify number one, it's appropriate number two, they haven't responded, and they have the right to appeal. the what-if, obviously is disastrous if it goes through for european advertisers no advertiser will want to ties on the platform. the end users -- think about the flip side. what does it do to the local community? what does it do for the local shops that are trying to get

awareness? you walk outside wimbledon there's amazing restaurants, place to say go. do they really want that type of impact like, this is -- i just don't think they're thinking about this correctly, honestly i don't believe that, again, this goes through. i think there's a low likelihood of this happening. again, a lot of the regulatory concerns get started in europe, and they've gotten really severe and you will ultimately i think think tend to pass through look at gdpr, it really had no impact look back to google numbers when it went through, and it then had a huge impact. clearly apple's changes in the privacy side had changes, so this will be a major impact. to what degree, again, i would put it at major if it goes through the currents form, but it's hard to exactly quantify.

i think this is going to take time for this to go through. brent. >> thank you for joining us. >> brent thill. >> thank you what do you think about it this >> right now estimates are basically flat for earnings and sales after a down year this year maybe they're spending too much money, but it's had a big rally. it was a bad report. there's probably one more bad guide for fiscal 2023, and then the stock is probably a buy. ed head of morgan assistantly's wealth management unit is investors are heading for a rude awakening for the reset. >> i think, by the way, that's a great thing. if we finally get these revisions, stocks selling off, the five, six horsemen that have

been leading this for a year and a half, i think that could mean we're close to the end. >> it's clear they're seeing a diminution in the ad revenue and they're recognizing that and having to cut costs. it's not really investable on meta in particular, never, ever underestimate you pick the eu's willingness to stick it to big tech i just don't think it has that much of an impact, right no one is supposed to be going to facebook to get agreed ads. they're trying to connect with people i think it's important to take note that. a check on shares of paramount falling hard today, as options traders are piling in. how they're playing the move when "fast money" returns.

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welcome back to "fast money. a rough day for semis, the loss coming after president biden's

visit to a new factory kristina partsinevelos has the latest. >> made in america, with a little help from taiwan, melissa. taiwan semiconductors tripling its investment in phoenix, arizona. president biden was accompanied by taiwan semi's customers chip stocks falling, tsmc's investment news is part of a greater movement to on-shore chip manufacturing, but keep in mind these fabs take years to build. >> when they were built, i imagine it would be more expensive to manufacture the

chips here than elsewhere. who eats the costs >> we do, 100% passed to the consumer rather than sucked in -- >> taiwan semiconductor just increased their prices and increased margins. that was already passed onto the consumer the only positive thing is it will bring in competition, building their fabs here, so it's not just dominated by tsmc. they hold all the pricing power. >> thank you, kristina partsinevelos. tim seeymour, what do you think? >> we've a big run in the semis. it held up reasonably well i would say taiwan semi is one of the most important companies in the borrell we talk about some of the

leading chips. the question is, when do you buy them in advance? >> '23 is a writeoff you shouldn't probably be buying the stock -- when you get the shipment warning, that's the time to buy it with two hands. >> when would that be, january february >> probably some before late january. i'll just say this, remember when foxconn went to wisconsin, spent $10 billion making an assembly plant last year they scaled it back to $1 billion why slow your rolling on all this stuff >> slow your roll? >> yeah. >> what does that do it's inflationary. we made a deal our manufacturers, our consumers 40 years ago, with all this for a reason i don't think it's going to come undone that quickly.

the move is sparking some interest in the option pit the details on that one when "fast money" returns

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mike khouw has the options action. >> on the heels of that disappointing news, we saw two times the average daily put volume one of the early trades was a purchase of 1,000, the buyer paid $1.21 that buyer betting paramount could fall another 5%. all right. obviously what bob says raises concerns about all the media properties, tim. >> i think the cyclicality around the ad business and these streaming company. it's a trend nobody wants. it's the first one to rally back it's just not time i think we talked about some of the issues with netflix and why

that's a very different story. of those, i do think you want to own disney mike khouw, you won't want to miss david faber's interview with paramount tomorrow at 10:00 a.m. eastern and for more "options action" tune in 5:30 on fridays. up next, final trade hello, world. or is it goodbye?

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time for the time trade. around the horn. tim? >> in this environment, j&j. >> julie beale >> duck creek technologies, a small-cap tech, not too sexy, that's how i like them. [ laughter ] >> short blk, buy bx here. >> interesting. >> julie mentioned, she goes to a bank to get her cookies. that's a great bank. tim goes to the banks that gives out those ridiculously sexy vests. >> have you been wearing the

outfit since the '80s? they pick on the ones they love, i realize. i didn't realize i was coming home to a family dinner and being taken out back. >> final trade. >> one of great ceos. >> my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. theres always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. wel welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you money. my job is not just to entertain but explain how days like today happened call me or tweet me @jimcramer i've been thinking