vicing frustration around that that's potential headline blowback for apple sure they've weighed all that. going on for years. >> not over yet. is it. >> it's not. >> a pleasure. >> great to be here in-person. >> thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. "closing bell" starts right now. stocks struggling for direction today after an ugly start to the week as recession worries and the fed's next move remain top of mind for investors. the make or break hour for your money. welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen where we stand in the market dow down about 31 points down 92 at lows. up sharp earlier s&p 500 down a third of 1% two sector remaining green right now. health care and consumer staples, both defensive. we're seeing a big bond market rally. that's helping that group.

technology near bottom of the list along with communications services that sector down 1%. look at the ten-year yield focused on that today. 3.4% lower yields rising bond prices, on worries about an economic slowdown and falling inflation coming up on the show today, jpmorgan chief u.s. economist michael feroli joins with his expectations for the economy and what he's watching from the fed with just one week to go until final meeting of the year. plus, taking aim at larry fi fink talking to co-founder of bluebell capital first to the market desk as always with commentator mike santoli. real estate just joining consumer staples and health care in the green definitely a theme there. >> there is. definitely a little defensive tale at the market certainly a bit on edge. a rough start to december. november and october also started on the weak side so doesn't mean it's how the whole month will go. certainly broken this mini

upturn had going since mid-october and fairly cracked below it as of yesterday's close. a lot of things people are looking for can it create a bit of a shelf around the 39 level if you're bullish, want to see that keep in mind, every other time rolled over from a lower low went on to make at least a marginal new low the seesaw we're on. look at this chart that maps out what the market historically has done after the final rate hike of the fed tightening cycle. from bank of america here. the middle line here shows the average. this is months before and after the final hike so there's the final rate hike, the zero line. 14% higher on average. this is 13 hiking cycles, 9 of 13 were up the best one after 1980. there was a space between two recessions essentially, and the market ripped higher the weakest one, 1969. there was a ceasing of fed tightening cycle that went

quickly into recession cpi pretty high. above 5% take that as you will. one thing i'll note is we have sold off heavily into this final phase of a tightening cycle, if it's early next year some think it's december you're seeing markets typically flattish in the 12 months after the final rate hike. already down down as much as 27%. already down 15% at this point so the point is how we front-loaded some pain a unique cycle that doesn't follow history we'll have to see. >> equity reaction to what's happening in the bond market today. for so long tech stocks were allergic to higher bond yields they're at bottom of the list today and bond yields are moving south. >> there's a limit how much you can take heart in bond yields coming in, because means less fed, less inflation. great. means growth is in trouble not good for any stocks. earnings estimates have a lot more to say where tech stocks are going than yields do and all

pointing lower. >> be careful what you wish for. lower yields means recession. a week away from the fed's meeting. plenty of talk of recession bubbled up getting closer to that decision. earlier today citi bank ceo jane frazier said she's expecting a u.s. recession next year following comments from jpmorgan, jamie dimon here on c nbc yesterday saying inflation may derail the economy and consumer spending. joining us, jpmorgan chief u.s. economist michael feroli a little confusing, michael, because the atlanta gdp tracker does realtime estimates on gdp says we're going to get 3.4% growth this quarter. so is the economy -- accelerating or slowing? >> well, i think the economy in the fourth quarter is doing quite well led by consumer spending looks like it's growing over 3% annualized rate. strongest of the year for the consumer obviously last friday saw the jobs market is looking pretty

strong so i think all of this recession talk, if it's going to be sensible, is about a forecast for some time in the future. i do think it's sensible, but i don't any we're on the edge of recession. not momentum and data over the past weeks suggests. >> it's not over in corporate america. fourth quarter you said best for the consumer >> uh-huh. >> of the year target came out and said there was a big slowdown in consumer discretionary spending in october and november now we're hearing from all the bank ceos about time to be cautious about the economy how do you square all that >> i do think profits are going to be challenged in this environment. even though growth, this quarter, and presumably next quarter, we think still is, should be pretty, do pretty well that's just we're seeing those labor cost pressures evident against, again, last, last friday probably running stronger than pricing power which is kind of the opposite of what we've seen

over the past couple of quarters so i do think, you know, the picture from corporate america may be a little different than the picture we're going to get from, you know, the government's statistical agencies at least for a little bit here. again, i do think it's sensible to project a recession a couple quarters forward, given key amount of tightening that has happened and will happen from the federal reserve, but the effect of that will take some time i think we want to sddistinguis what's going on versus what's forecast to actually take place f. we're in a really strong quarter right now for growth, that means, what, for inflation? >> inflation, you know, look link ap between growth and inflation quarter to quarter is not a particularly tight one so we are seeing at least so far, we only have one month's inflation number for this quarter, and you may recall to the down side, welcomed by financial markets, and we think

we probably have a little bit of, a little bit more relief coming on inflation in the next few months certainly looks like some things, supply chains are generally speaking getting, improving performance. i expect those goods prices which can really strong last year and earlier this year, there is scope for those to moderate but we're not going to get close, i don't think to 2% inflation for several quarters to come, but, you know, better is a start at least. >> so, mike, just a good chart showing what happens to the market after the fed's last hike of the cycle next week we're expecting 50 basis points. >> 50 basis points. >> double. instead of a triple. then what? how close are we to them stopping >> we think, our expectation, is downshift to 25 in february, the february meeting and another 25 in march and then pause to see the labor market soften. that's our forecast. i think there is a risk that they could go 50 again in

february, but -- so, you know, this -- i guess our expectation is that they get close to 5% on overnight interest rates some, you know, some risk say less but probably a little more risk they go more than that. >> and you said it's sensible to price in a recession in a few quarters next year? which feels like that is increasingly the consensus, expectation. are you in the shallow recession camp how do we know >> we are -- >> what that's going to look like >> we are in a shallow recession camp you know, if you had 500 basis points of tightening over the course of the year ishistoricaly tips the economy into contr contraction. we do think there are some -- that this economy is fundamentally healthy. so we don't think that a deep recession is the most likely outcome. of course, that's a possibility, but i do think it's also a possibility that, you know, to reiterate what chair powell said

last week, still a narrow path to disinflation that doesn't involve a recession. not our baseline outlook but i think there are two-sided risks around the outlook for a mild recession. >> how bad is it going to have to get when it comes to jobs or the economy for the fed to be more spooked about that than inflation which is above target? they're going to have to make that decision at some point next year right? >> yeah, yeah. i thought one of the more interesting things about chair powell's remarks last week was the emphasis he put on, you know, getting the labor market back into ball, as a pre-condition for being confident that inflation really is, you know, going to come down and stay down. so i think that means you need to get wage inflation probably from 5% to something closer to 3.5% it's hard to see that without the unemployment rate moving up at least a percentage point or more, and that's going to involve a period, we think, of job loss lasting, you know from

6 to 12 months so we do think, again, shouldn't rule out tail ricks here but think most likely and most reasonable expectation is to get a lasting disinflation you regrettably need to lose a shed, significant amount of employment and our forecast is a little over a million jobs shed before the fed is, you know, comfortably in easing territory. >> going to lose more than a million jobs between now and, what middle of next year? >> in our forecast, middle of '24. and let's keep in mind that that's, that would be actually a, consistent with a modest, shallow recession, in percent terms. sounds scary and you know -- >> sounds bad. >> it's regrettable, but that's i think -- what the fed will need to see to really be sure that the labor market is in balance and not, you know, blaming inflation risks. i don't want to rule out a more

benign scenario and hope for a more benign nair yo but i don't think that's the most reasonable expectation. >> yeah. sound a little perverse that the fed is rooting for that. michael feroli from jpmorgan thank you very much. appreciate it. we're going to have much more on the economy tomorrow joined exclusively by the commerce secretary, gina raimondo right here 3:00 p.m. exclusive "closing bell." bank stocks, check it out. a rough start to december with financial sector down more than 4% names like bank of america and wells fargo down even more than that up next, we debate whether it's a buying opportunity for the banks. you're watching "closing bell. dow down about 59 points in the middle of the range of where we've been strength in the s&p and staples and health care. overall lower dragged down by financials, bank and materials we'll be right back.

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citi group ceo jane frazier making headlines today saying u.s. consumer spending is robust and she comfortable with quality of the bank's credit portfolio this as financials lagged to start the month with pretty stark drafts this week should you buy the dip in the bank stocks? joins us now, barclays jason goldberg and hennessy funds portfolio manager david ellison. david, what did we hear from the bank ceos this week that spooked investors so much? >> well, i think generally we heard that sort of the base of fundamentals, whether margins, whether it be loan growth, whether it be spreads, lending

spreads, or expenses are all in flux, and there is a risk that they could turn more negative next year, which would obviously put pressure on earnings, and i think you see a lot of analysts out there responding to that, and lowering estimates or pushing out numbers a little bit into '24 versus '23. so i think the issue is the longer this goes on the more this is going to be a grind and the more we're going to have to battle the risk of credit. the risk of lower margins because of what's happened to rates and the economy. so we'll see what happens, but a lot of the basic fundamentals are now in flux, the down side not the up side. >> so, jason, as these earnings estimates come down, do you see buying opportunities >> you know, think about the course of next we're, we do. entering, david used the term in flux i agree with, but entering the period with strength from the third quarter,

companies, say top 25 banks posted revenue grow in the fourth quarter and then into the first quarter. entering a period of uncertainty with strong net revenues strong capital, and we think you'll see positive operating leverage next year to the citi expense growth something you haven't really seen over the prior couple years. >> and you like -- looks like a lot of the big kunones, jpmorga goldman sachs and regionals as well, jason, even with worries about slow growth? >> be more selective on regionals, overexposed benefited this year from higher interest rates benefits early parts of next year, but that benefit should fade looking out then as credit losses rise, one area we're kind of becoming particularly more concerned about is commercial real estate lending where some of the regional banks tend to be bigger players. something you want to be more

cautious on. the same level of diversity in those franchises. >> what about you, david picking up stocks in this environment? bank stocks? or what? >> not really. i think i agree with everything that jason has just said the struggle i have is that we're at beginning of more earnings problems as opposed to earnings tailwinds i think that's the issue we have to fight through what's happened to rates. what's happened to potential credit if it will happen. so i just think we're in this period now where you just have to be patient and wait for the cycle to play itself out i'd love to have a recession now. love to have hainan performers, love to have a more wacky yield curve to get better. the problem is nothing has gone wrong yet. i think jason said, look, earnings will be fine and i think everybody agrees with that, and that's the problem everything's fine. there's nothing wrong.

so there's nothing to get better. there's nothing to get better, why is the incremental guide going to buy financials right now? i'm hoping for tougher times ahead so that we can have a good buying opportunity into, let's say, the middle to end of this year and then really rip the following year. >> jason, how do you respond to that why would now be the time? >> i think, you know, the month, within the course of next year keep in mind where valuations are. pe multiples on 2023 estimates trading under nine times retttive to s&p 500. almost half. the bottom textile we see typically, a valuation only see in deep recessions i think while certainly next year may bring recession, most forecasts call for it to be a shallow one. seems the group is already pricing in a lot of negativity at the same time that you have fairly strong fundamentals. >> dave, you are see more pain

to come? >> well, i don't want to make a bull/bear debate that this is turning into. >> better not to debate. >> i agree jason's numbers are correct. the problem i have is that stocks don't go up because they're cheap and don't go down because they're expensive. >> yeah. >> they move around because of change in the underlying fundamentals so if he can tell me that hargons are going to expand, credit isn't going to be a problem long growth decent the next 18 months and the fed doesn't create a recession and, then we're probably on the, he's right. but if year going to have a fed that wants to generate a million jobs list, jobless, creating a problem, your last guest talked ak i don't think fundamentals will hold them up i remember early '80s buying stocks half a book two times earnings and hope we don't go back there but luvove to be the now. great opportunities in the next couple years we'll see what happens. >> in other words, always get cheaper.

jason, david, thank you very much it was a good debate appreciate it. >> thanks, sara. a lot to think through down 66 points or so on the dow. s&p 500 down a little less than half a percent monetary declines adding to losses for the week. s&p down 3.6% now for week as a whole. naz docsdaq down 4.3% down is apple, tesla, alphabet, microsoft all at bottom of the list tonight. still ahead, talk to johnny fine from goldman sachs and his outlook on credit markets into year end head of investment grade syndicate. rally is big bonds as we head to break look at shares of mongodb near top of the nasdaq today after the database company reported a surprise quarterly prompt and upbeat guidance. stock's ump 22% almost

we'll be right back.

check out our stock mover. brown-forman stock on the rise today. missing wall street's profits estimate bosecause of higher int and sharply over the past two months, but results a big buzzkill down 7.5%. up next, goldman sachs's johnny fine here to explain why we may never seen the federal reserve raise interest rates by 75 basis points again. just one of his calls. we'll be right back. - [narrator] if your business

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stocks under a little pressure but bonds of the story today. big ral pip look at ten-year treasury yield down to 3.4%. down substantially this week as investors continue to worry about the fate of the economy. the 30-year yield below 3.5% that is really rallied in the last, i don't know, month or so. joining us now to talk about opportunities in the credit market and what all of this means. johnny fine, head of investment grade syndicate at goldman sachs. a really good day to have you explain the moves we're seeing in the bond market is this a bet on falling inflation we're starting to see, or rising recession risks? >> firstly, thanks for having me on again great to see you

especially live and in-person. >> yes. >> the answer is a little bit of both clearly the market is getting religion around inflation expectations coming down the fed winning the battle, but also at the same time we're starting to see the market price in a much greater degree of recessionary fear. maybe some coming out of financial conference this week, bank ceos speaking certainly seeing a little more of that bleed through into markets. i agree with you 30 year on a tier down almost 100 basis points in yield from where it was just in late october. >> which was high. >> exactly, yes. >> with that seen an inverted yield curve that got even more in inverted most seen in decades what is that telling you >> curve remained pretty inverted the curve now moved back to flat remain heavily inverted but at the same time the front end of the yield curve come down as well i said 30 year's down 100 basis points, and two-year note down 50 basis points off highs.

and three notes down 60 basis points all highs as well also implying less monetary tightening in the future as well market, i think, getting much more comfortable with the fed's on target a quarter percent there or thereabouts terminal fund rates early next year. >> what conversations are you having with clients about next year how 0-would you character this >> financial markets, general rule, predicted a weaker economic outlook for 2023. the debate will continue to rage whether or not we'll get a soft landing or really tip into recession, perhaps, in the second half of next year i tend to agree with the point of view, roughly one in three chance i think we get recession. i'm still optimistic the fed will land the plane towards the soft landing scenario i think we're hoping for. >> i don't know. your boss sounds a little more bearish on recession.

>> i don't like to disagree but also i don't like to disagree with a glass half full guy you know, sara going with an optimistic scenario soft landing. >> how is the credit market behaving >> pretty well i think over the course of the year of course credit spreads widened. largely driven by more technical factors. this time a year ago we had almost $300 billion flows into investment grade bond funds. now around about $160 billion outflows year to date. a swing of almost half a trillion dollars pretty meaningful in the grand scheme of what we see in investment-grade credit. as we move into '23, i think the fundamentals are going to catch up a little. what i think we need to look for, earnings estimates start to come down. projected earnings, forward earnings ed set ra move into passive leverages denom ator in the debt ebitda ratio starts to decrease and sass a result leverage ratio increases.

>> a little complicated. for those, those wondering whether to buy at high yield etf. if you think a soft landing and relatively optimistic, pretty high yields there getting paid is that a good bet >> i think fixed income itself likely to attract more capital flows in '23 we'll see rest of the capital outflows marked 2022 you're able to get a pretty chunky yield by investing in fixed income today compared to where you were 2016. and blackrock, for instance, key three earnings report, the president talked how in 2016 to get a 7.5% yield needed a portfolio something like 25% bonds, 50% equities, 25% alternatives, paraphrasing whereas today you can get that same yield by being more like 80% in bonds and 2020 in stocks supportive for flowing overall attracted into fixed income. >> 80% bonds, 20% stocks

>> all over the place. expectations still seeing down draft in bonds at some point in '23. some will look at things like front end of the investment grade market to get mid to high 4s for high quality credit an attractive entry point market's all over the place. seeing more consensus build towards end of the fed timing cycle early next year. >> i don't think it helps today you have president putin on the wire saying that the odds of a nuclear standoff have gone up. right? still geopolitical risk here and that, i mean, offers, bonds offer protection there. >> sure. i think naturally people will want to immu lies portfolios t rick out there, unknowns, happening on the geopolitical front. tensions between u.s. and china et cetera, et cetera, overall in

the market's poised, i think, a more robust year of capital committing, risktaking and broader capital markets activity in 2023. >> johnny fine thank you very much. >> thank you. >> good day to have you. up next, we will be joined by the activist investor who is calling for blackrock ceo larry fink to step down for what he says is hypocrisy over the asset managers esg messaging. reminder, listen to "closing bell" on your favorite podcast app. dow's down about 16 points earlier high at 177. down almost 100. we'll be right back. nning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated.

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what is wall street buzzing about today? activist investor bluebell capital approach to csg and calling for larry fink to step down concerned with blackrock's "contradictions and inconsistent sis on esg investing and politicalization of the esg debate." bluebell capital co-founder giuseppe bivona joins us now thank you for your time. first, if you could, just tell us how big of a stake you hold in blackrock >> thank you for having me our stake is on this course, always talk stake rewards, but i can tell you the extent approximately $250 million firm in a portfolio already concentrated in 2014 stock and stated our stock to blackrock

hanchts to be a small stake. talking about a $100 billion company. >> absolutely. >> what i'm trying to understand from your letter, which i read and some of the reports around it, are you criticizing blackrock for doing too little on esg, doing too much on esg? seems like there's a little bit of both in there >> well, i would say that we are desiring a need for doing too little, not too much main critiques s doing what the say they're doing. ask me, much worse position in the public debate. >> we went to blackrock, of course, and asked for a statement on this campaign that you have launched. here's what blackrock spokesperson tells us. in the past 18 months bluebell waged a number of campaigns to promote climate and governance ag agenda blackrock did not support their campaigns and did not consider them to be in the best economic

interest of our client you have been pushing blackrock to join you in some of these esg fights and blackrock does not how do you respond >> well, i don't think -- i don't think that trying to convince them, you know to do anything what i really deviated over the last almost four year, 18-month period, is documenting that blackrock got all the relevant information to make the best in the index of declines and i can make some example. you know, when you, as a leading manager who champions on social responsibility vote to support the ceo of a public company, which has been, which has been convicted for six year in jail for account in a different company, i know what extent this is in the best interests of

shareholder and clients. when you, as a leading, as a manager do not endorse a request for company to stop, you know, it's environmental issue, then i don't think you have the right to claim that you put environment on the top of agenda that can go on and on and on. >> and is it really hurting the performance of blackrock i know the stock is down 20% or so for the year. that's pretty much on par with the industry, and blackrock has seen in-flows this year and some in the broader industry has seen outflows >> look, i think if you are in any business like selling funds or cars or shoes or whatever, and you have created, you are constantly on the limelight being criticized on this issue, i think you have a problem. in 23 states in the united states send, you know, very tough letter to blackrock, and

what took, what it is, which, 150 million of americans clients, potential clients so this is obviously -- i don't think we can discuss here the existence of the problem the problem exists you know it's a question what revenue can we adopt >> well, thank you very much, giuseppe attracted a lot of interest. other companies are pushing them on esg appreciate it. definitely getting some buzz today. >> thank you very much. and when we come back, tesla selling off after another round of price cuts in china up next, whether that will be enough to jump-start demand. that story, plus -- new kearns carvana is on the road to bankruptcy and the airline stocks getting grounded today when we take you inside the "market zone," next.

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bell" market zone. cnbc common dateentator mike sa and the airline and phil lebeau. down one-third of 1% adding to losses seen so far this week nasdaq overall down almost 4.5% for the week notable. because it's on the back of falling treasury yields, which should be good for tech stocks as we mentioned as they've as you have beenered valuation concern, but now becomes about recession and reduced earnings estimates. >> yeah. >> where is the sell-off taking off? >> exactly

nasdaq downside leadership entire bear market the group that really had the out performance op the upside usually hurts more than the downside that's all happening i was looking, next year's earnings estimates for amazon, just vaporize. same with meta and even alphabet down 20% to me that accounts for most of what we're seeing of these stocks in a market the average company is able to have double digit revenue growth because inflation the way it is. explains a lot in general. i think there's a chance declining yields is creating a little more economic anxiety among equity investors than helping on relative valuation and the idea it's going to support the consumer, bring mortgage rates lower, gasoline prices down. a little good news turning into worrisome news because of the extent of these declines. >> also coming down, used car prices mannheim vehicle index down again. more than 14% for the year

in november, which has been a pretty good leading indicator of inflation. what got us into this mess to begin with that spike. >> absolutely. one of the reasons why investors almost have moved past the peak inflation story and are like, look, that's in the bag. we see where it's going. maybe it won't that's what they're saying i side from services and wage inflation and much more what damage has been done how strong is the economy now? can we absorb what's happened already on the rate side without a recession? >> that is a big story today certainly the rally across the treasury curve hit airlines, though sliding today in a broad loop lower for travel stock american airlines, united, southwest, delta, jetblue all selling off. southwest saying earlier today reinstate quarterly dividends after suspending it beginning of pandemic and ceo last hour said on cnbc demand looks strong. bring in senior analyst for the airlines at cowen.

mouch of the boom that we are seeing in this industry is is already reflected in the price >> hi, sara. i think none of it is, frankly, because stocks are back to march 2020 levels for the most part and yet to bob's point earlier today at investor day he talked about the strong demand at the fact they think they'll get back to 2019 revenues in 2023 in our forecast for most airlines is to get most of the way back, at least 90% or more back so the fact that the stocks are trading the way they are is disappointing number one number two, i think it really reflects concerns about a recession and that demand turning down airline traffic is always good until it's bad you don't really see it coming that much. you don't see the downturn coming, and i thought with the dividend reinstatement today,

which we expected them to announce today that that would get the stock up, but, no. goldman stocks to your point are under a lot of pressure. i think it's a capacity concern. >> the second worst performen subsector of the s&p right now, today. such a fine metal and glass containers, very bottom of the list helaine, sounds like you think the sell-off is overdone which should you be buying >> i do. i think they are united, ual our best idea for 2020 and repeated repeated it for 2023. we think a mix taking place in the industry shifting away from domestic to more international and some business resumption not 100% of the way back, but ual is probably our best and delta as a buy southwest a buy. alaska air, all buys, and those our top four choices in here

each for specific reasons, but all across the board just continues sound demand u think we're going to see okay cost control pilot costs are the ones going up a lot, but it's only a 2023 increase, and then the increases for '24, '25 and '26 will be smaller than those 30%, that 30% increase we saw delta give their em -- think pilots earlier this week. >> helaine, thank you very much for joining us on the call helaine becker from cowen. tesla, shares under pressure after the evmaker announced more price cuts on some models in china. that news prompting longtime tesla bear to slash earnings estimates for the fourth quarter and next year because of increasing kearns about demands. phil lebeau joins us how much could the price cut in china actually spur demand for tesla? what does it say about demand

overall this year and next >> a much more competitive market when it comes to competitive vehicles in china. no question about that look at ev sales in china, tesla topped 100,000 in the month of november first time ever they have sales, strong demand problem is increased competition there and because of that these reports are out that they're going to be slashing prices. to tony's point, putting pressure on their gross auto margins really the driver of the stock in the past. interesting to see how much of that pressure comes through when they report their q4 results in january. >> stock is, 57%, mike, now off the highs? it's taken a beating now this year it was holding up relatively well earlier in the tech sell-off not so much anymore. >> it was. basically that looks like a bit of a busted chart right here able to say for a while it was holding together again, the unwind of the

extremes we got into the highs not just in valuation but in terms of everybody embracing the idea, the premise was unmet -- unmatched demand basically you couldn't feed all the demand supply con ststraints story and combined with a visionary leader who could figure out the next moves looking ahead dedicated to the future now twitter, a bit of distraction. sold a lot of stock. all elements gone in reverse that being said, earnings still looking like they're relatively healthy. maybe that means downside to estimates but up over the last several months down in the last two, earnings estimates for next year. a more fundamental story about what valuation you put on real earnings as opposes to used to be faith they would eventually get to scale. >> ask you about carvana another day, another plunge. increasing bankruptcy fears? online car sales dealer largest creditors agrees to negotiate debt restructuring together?

what do we know about this situation? >> we don't know a whole lot in part because carvana's not saying a whole lot this report apollo as well as pimco getting together saying, look, let's work together in case we see this go into a bankruptcy, which would be a chapter 11 it would be a pre-packaged bankruptcy notice likely no indication at this point carvana is going bankrupt, but when creditors start talking to each other, a sign because the company is so over leverages they're making plans in case that ultimately happens and seeing the results with shareholders stock down under $4 a share. if it goes into bankruptcy shareholders have very little, if anything, left. >> ouch. phil lal ebeau, thank you very much. campbell's soup as well. strong earnings. stock rallying trading at levels not seen since march 2020 at 6%. quite a move for consumer

staples. company beats quarterly estimates and raised full-year outlook saying it's been able to pass on higher costs to the consumers. especially as consumers eat out less and at home more. 15% organic revenue growth higher outlook i talked to the ceo just before the show, and asked him how he's able to pass on 15, 16 points of pricing in this economic environment. he says because our portfolio still offers value value against eating away from home, value against other meals you can buy at home. and i asked if he was seeing any recessionary signals of consumers trading down to private label, he said, not really maybe a little on condensed soup 85% share there. look, the younger consumer came to these brands and products during the pandemic and have stayed they are better able to cook at home, he says. more confident and capable of

cooking at home. not me bought whole new generation of consumers. thanksgiving was strong. people sacrificed on protein in other words, bought smaller turkeys and spent more to have side dishes. that was good for campbells, green bean casserole mashed potatoes with soup mixes and that sort of thing interesting because reflects a lot of this postpandemic mentality and behavior shifts we're seeing from consumers that is impacting these stocks and keeping them very strong and keeping them in a place where they're able to pass on higher prices. >> yeah. i mean no doubt. in addition to whatever behavior changes have been in place since the pandemic, i mean, there's been never a more classic recession or consumer stress play than campbell's because of all the things you mentioned in terms when it stands up against other options. it's usually the value choice. i do think that it could be a concern there's very little volume growth. next year exactly how much

follow-on pricing can you put through? family concerns be there but stock isn't as expensive as other consumer crude companies like say hormel and some others that do have the premium and out in somewhat different categories, but i do think that's why the stock market responding positive liply as its right now. >> food prices coming down, i asked, moderate. much more on food inflation tomorrow exclusive interview with ceo of unilever huge consumer package good and food giants on "squawk on the street" with me 10:00 a.m. eastern. mike, what do you see in market internals? two minutes to go? >> pretty weak underneath the surface, sara. modest index moves about 2-1 down side in terms of new york stock exchange declining to advancing volume showing a little wear and tear range around 3900. 3930 on the s&p all day.

look at the dollar index is. similar story to yields. ye yields and dollar tightly coordinated. you see the low for this run lower on the dollar index a little above 104 today climbing to 105. volatility perking up slightly contained in the low 20s up off lows below 19 on alert to see if this pullback deepens into anything more than just, you know, a few percent off the rally highs. >> so glad you brought up the dollar almost 8.5% off highs. really tells you the shift in mood about recession, lower inflation. less fed action. mike, thank you. as we head into the close, check out the dow. actually just gone positive. up earlier today, up at much as 177. there's interday chart choppy action today. down as low as down almost 100 looks like close out just about flat i mentioned a few lows salesforce lowest level since

about 2020 right now and all-time high for ulta beauty, which continues to gain traction s&p 500 closes with a loss of 0.2 of 1%. not a good stream as thought earlier in the week but adds to losses nasdaq hit hardest again down half a percent story today is really in the bond market where we saw a big rally in the ten year and in the 30 year bringing down those yields that's it for me on "closing bell" in "overtime," the stock. i'm scott wapner, you heard the bell getting started at post 59 at the stock exchange in a moment speak with frencher capital rick heitzmann we'll ask key questions, and mike mayo back with us after making a key move on bank of america today. it's been his top pick in the space. has that now changed we b