if you assume that they are not going to move in sync and you can get a little bit of help on that also, in the boom years of the late '90s, treasury yields were 6% it can get up there. >> good luck also, the build a hedge that allows you to get more risky on the equity side. >> exactly. >> have a good nate. see you tomorrow that's mike santoli. "fast money" is now. carvana crash. shares tumbling 35%. the stock down 98% this year what other pandemic high flyers could be headed towards the scrap heap plus, turbulence for travel stocks, everything from airlines to airbnb. is this another sign that consumer spending is running out of steam and berlin boom. a trader said in september it was time to bet on germany raise a sign and throw on your lederhosenen the best of the s&p 500 big time is it time to say good-bye

we are live. we start off with another deep drop in shares of carvana. stock in the used car dealer plunging as much as 47% clockk the worst day on record. it closed the session under $4 a share. it was $240 at the start of the year the move comes with speculation growing that they are headed towards bankruptcy the largest creditors reportedly pledging to work together in debt restructuring what does that tells us about these one-time high flyers let's be clear we have been on this carvana story for a long time all the way down karen, the debt had been signaling this. >> right we talk about the debt investors being smarter than the equity investors. if we go back a month or two ago and well before that, the debt was trading at levels that did not represent debt that was

going to be fine it was going under and just the question of when. and so i don't know if it's going to be very soon. it sort of seems that way, that creditor deal like, okay, we will work together it has to be in some sort of restructuring, right that's a bad sign. interesting a stock that's down 96% go down 40% in one day that's sort of a mathematical oddity it can continue to do that >> exactly. >> forever, theoretically. but i don't know if this will be a meme stock i doubt it t there is no way i would long this stock. i think that they are going to have to restructure. look at the burn there they can't sustain the burn. >> i think meme-ity, if that is a word, is not that possible these days with money that is not free anymore. >> but we saw meme stocks that looked more dire than this i know the fundamentals in the used car market are telling you what's going on and this is part

of the reason why i think you have creditors coming together the signs are not good it doesn't show for a near term turnaround they don't have major maturities due to 2025. so you have a group of creditors coming together and negotiating as a group also to make sure that carvana doesn't have preferential terms with smaller investors. in other words, the point is it's not a unique situation. it's a situation we haven't seen necessarily in some of these other meme stories where you have a concentrated group of debt holders who can negotiate as a group and do it well in advance. from what i'm seeing in terms of liquidity profile to the end of 2023, i don't think chapter 11 is necessarily on the table right now. >> i have a question here. how unusual for group of creditors to work together it seems to me to be unusual maybe i just haven't been hooking at these sorts of stories in the past. >> there has been some very, i

don't know what right word is, not cool maneuvering among various debt holders to strip other debt holders of assets so we saw it a couple of times and i think all parties want to say we don't want to be on the wrong end of that. >> wrong group of creditors? >> yeah, you really get screwed. i understand that the maturity is not there they own interest and they will run out of money, i think, before -- mine, the business - >> from an operational perspective, they could probably stumble through between cash and credit facilities through the end of '23 again, to me this is an opportunity for people who at least have a better negotiation position and creditors, first of all, the debt guys are smart and have all the leverage. they can do what they want to the equity shareholders. we have to reiterate to the folks watching the equity at some point is not in control of its own destiny.

>> it's an expensive option right now. equity owners should understand they could be buying a zero right now and you talk about the meme stocks. the pandemic is somewhat over, right? to large extent. >> let's hope. >> people are out of their homes. they used to sit home and trade stocks all day long. they are not doing that. >> there are no stimulus checks. things cost money. >> you don't need to have a car delivered to your house any more you can actually go to an auto dealer. >> as a trader you say it's down 98%, down 48% in the month - >> are you going to tell me you would go - >> no. i'm saying as a trader that's the bad side, is you think i am going to take a flyer out on this you turn away, it's a dollar lower again. i would avoid it. >> the bigger question is this was a pandemic darling so you think are there other stocks that have to reverse that excess, that bubble that they had worked themselves into on the premise of the pandemic which no longer exists any more?

i mean, is that the next logical step here? >> yes i think it is. and it's been happening simultaneously in parallel the first one that comes to mind is amc talking about theaters, not met works. i mean, you know, they had maneuvered every way possible, did a fantastic job of just somehow managing to raise tons of equity, tons of debt, and yet they have a really big cash burn the debt i think we have one -- okay the 7/8, prupssy is in the cards here he has pulled a rabbit out of every hat -- >> there are any more hats >> remember when they did that gold deal because they are so good at credit structuring or whatever it was? that was absurd. that was like, you know, money that absolutely could have been used to buy back debt 30 cents on the dollar.

that was ridiculous to me. so i bought some amc puts because i think the chance of them running out of money is also high. i am not shorted i don't want to be in terms of just being outright short. i was curious how much does it cost to short, 24%, kinda high it wasn't even available at that price. but you could probably get some somewhere. i just think it's going to unravel. this is a different market that was free money. this is no longer free money and that price, the debt investors are smarter than the extended forecast investors they are telling you they are coming for this one. >> let's bring in chris, a closer look at carvana's debt issues and who else may be in a debt crunch soon we have been saying that the debt has been telegraphing carvana's troubles for some time what do you think is next for this company based on what you see? >> i think that debt data around where carvana's short-term and

long-term debt has been pushing the company into distress territory, at least that's the opinion of bond investors. this is where i think stock investors and bond investors need to talk to each other a little bit more because a little bit earlier you were talking about maybe some of these stocks could become a value where you step in. it's been pretty clear from carvana's short-term debt that debt holders think it's a distressed asset, so the stock should be continuing to fall as it has been throughout the year. >> we talked about this notion about these pandemic darlings in particular that had grown to the sky on the premise of the pandemic and now some of that has to unwind. are you seeing other carvana-like companies and i say carvana-like meaning the debt is telegraphing the real troubles ahead. >> i just heard amc mentioned and i think that's a perfect example of a stock you are looking at right now since we are out of the pandemic period, what does amc look like in terms of future prospects

the short-term debt for amc right now, trading at 42 cents on the dollar. bond investors feel like it's highly unlikely in the next three years they will be able to pay off that debt. those are great indicators for any sort of equity investors as to whether or not they should be buying something that's a value. the debt is saying amc is absolutely not a value from a stock perspective. >> chris, it's tim how about talking about this particular pack that has been signed amongst creditors. how unique of a moment is this to the extent that you have the concentration maybe across different maturities of a group of investors, bondholders that can dictate terms, maybe at least we know where the debt is trading certainly implies something, but maybe while they can still be very tactical. >> yeah, i think it's very bearish when the largest holders of the debt say let's make sure we don't sue each other if this company goes into bankruptcy

that's what the recent news has been regarding carvana the last time i was on we were talking about duration risk. now we are talking about credit risk these are two different types of risks in the market. i think you will have more stories like this carvana situation coming into the market in 2023 and this is really a function of interest rates being lifted up quite quickly and then these companies that have been borrowing really, really cheap levels for quite a long amount of time now finding that investors are demanding higher yields which, obviously, hurts their cap table and damages their prospects in terms of future solvency. >> chris, when you look at companies like amc or carvana, people say they had it coming, i could see that, that is going to happen th is there a risk to companies we don't see ripe for these types of events tran spierg? >> this is where i think we're corporate bond pricing has to be a part of the conversation of assessing the long-term health

of an issuer because what you are looking at there is how the market is handicapping the future prospects. do i think this company will be able to pay off debt in two years, three years, ten years, 20 years if you see in some of these growth stocks major sell-offs in bonds it are five years and in, that's a really, really bearish signal on the stock and i can't see a scenario where the stock recovers before the bonds. obviously, in this situation with carvana the bondholders are senior to the equity holders, so they have their knife and fork waiting for carvana to potentially declare bankruptcy and figure out how to split the assets given the bonds are in that territory and other companies with their short-term debt in this territory, it's a stay away from an equity investing standpoint. >> thank you karen, you look at that very often. so when we talk about companies

that have a lot of debt, that doesn't necessarily mean that they cannot service that debt? >> right. >> there is a difference >> right tim talked about when they have maturities, that's important sometimes they have loans that they can take out. they could draw on them. but when the business is losing so much cash, then it makes it really hard. i have been short the hyg, it moved a lot on rates, but we haven't seen that credit issue part of it really crack yet. >> yeah. guy? >> what's up >> hey, how is that computer behind you turned around you can't use it. >> i'm looking - >> have you noticed that your thoughts on carvana and what's next. we talk these companies that have heavy debt loads like a cruise line. we are not trying to single out any company and saying they are the next carvana not at all these are all concerns in a rising interest rate

environment. >> so many companies, new technology companies, reinventing the wheel. danny moses came on in the spring had carvana a was $160 and said the best short on the board. that proved to be correct. a couple other names affirm basically, this time last year throwing the chart of affirm and upstart a $400 stock in october of last year i think it's trading $16 now they haven't reinvented anything they are just lending facilities if they can't sell their loans to wall street and they are forced to put them on the balance sheet, they can no longer originate loans and these loans, their balance sheet deteriorates that's what you are seeing before your very eyes. when you think you reinvented something, reality is this is just a spin on a very old product and i think we are seeing it happen here in those names specifically. >> to blackstone now the c speaking out for the first

same since they restricted withdrawals from the $69 million breit fund we wondered if this could be a sign shares down 8%, hitting a 52-week low today. schwartzman said the idea there is something going wrong with the product because people are redeeming is conflating completely incorrect assumptions. many of the redemption requests came from asia where investors use more leverage. those investors, he added, were down a lot, needed to raise funds. he stressed that breit is performing well with income from the properties rising 13% this year so he came out and directly addressed some of the -- i don't want to say panic. when you see a stock like blackstone being driven down so much in a single day even, yesterday meaning, it is concerning. >> i thought we were clear that this was not about a liquidity crisis and is, you know, from a

weakness point, it was from an income statement perspective what has been a juggernaut of a product for them and essentially an annuity a gift that has been growing and giving for the last 12 to 15 years one of the things they are pointing out in terms of the underlying assets in the fund, they believe the way the leases, the intrinsic value of the leases are higher thawhen they e offline. it's money in the bank is how they explained it. i think that's probably right. there is no disputing what is going on in the real estate markets and what certainly has been the pressure from the macro that we're not going to get through anytime soon and what has been probably one the greatest runs in an asset class led by blackstone. i would prefer to focus on the fact that i think liquidity overall out there in terms of distress and whatnot is not in a bad place. liquidity in the biggest most liquid markets like treasuries, corporate bonds is just totally different than where it is there is less liquidity out

there. it's not because of what's going on that's happened at the financial crisis, less balance sheets, less positioning to me it's an environment where if i'm blackstone where exits and some of the hedge fund activity and some of the asset flows are in a very different place and there are headwinds different than tailwinds, that's what's going on even though i think it's a tough time. >> sometimes when you have redemptions they are not always for -- you could talk your way out from a point of strength and it leads to something else, leads to something else, and before you know it it's from a point of weakness. so it doesn't always have to be two plus two is four if that makes sense at all >> it didn't make sense to me, actually. >> ooh >> if you have a - >> that was the only thing you got. if you have a redemption, it doesn't matter when he said it's not because of the product if there is redemptions, there is redemptions, period i don't have to go further than that. >> the point is no matter the reason, it's an impact on the

stock. on blackstone, the company, it does not want to see maximum 5% redemptiones in a quarter. you can say as stephen schwarzman, the product is fine, guy, but the stock can feel that pressure >> yeah. and i think to tim's point, we made it clear we thought the stock was pricing most, if not all, of that in. it's a bigger issue as well that we try to make, maybe incorrectly, blackstone again they really levered themselves to the real estate market. asian investors, whatever, i mean, they are tethered to that in a meaningful way. as dan pointed out months ago, the real estate market was about to turn. and i think that's what we are seeing manifest before our eyes in terms of the stock. this weakness in real estate, whether justified or not, is having an impact on blackstone the stock. >> one other thing about blackstone the stock, if you are in the breit, you want to get out. they say you are gated, you

can't. those gates, david made a point of saying, they have always been there. that is not new. you've got to look for liquidity anywhere what about blackstone stock, right? >> if you opened it, yeah. >> ifyou can't get out but you want to decrease some of that exposure, right. >> is that what you would do >> yes. >> the breit or the private credit fund and you want to get out, they said you can't get out -- >> i think that trade is over. not because i have a liquidity problem. that's different i want to get out, i think the trade is over, i will short some blackstone. >> that's so much more tactical than folks at home will be people want what's actually a low volatility, high yielding product and they are high net worth people looking to preserve wealth. >> most of the reductions came from asian investors feeling excruciating pain, what did the hang seng do, it's been tough. you imagine they are looking for

liquidity and sell sell some gains. that raises the question what else is being sold under pressure >> right where is the liquidity you go to liquidity. >> what else is next what else has been sold because of the same pressures. anyway travel trouble analysts ahead a bite out of apple. morgan stanley the problems they see in store for the tech titan don't go anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. as an independent financial advisor, i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary, i promise to put your interests first, always. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com

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analysts saying booking, expedia and tripadvisor face a decline in 2023 as the economy contracts. that felt across the sector. airlines taking a head is there more turbulence ahead for these names? guy, what do you think >> ant aerosp airbnb, i was feeling good. sfwlid was going to be over.

travel would be robust in the states those things hasn't manifested yesterday morgan stanley downgrades airbnb down it's really at least there is no bottom seemingly in sight for loft these names unfortunately, i don't think you have seen the capitulation in a lot of these names. >> i would think perception is reality. if you tell enough people things are going to be tough the next six months, people pull back from spending. we are seeing that in the stock price. i would be a buyer, a nibble on all of these because this is not a forever thing. this is a for now thing. what do you mean >> well, we are going to travel again, right so whenever you bet against the airlines, if you buy a basket of them or the hotels, usually a year out you are in pretty good shape. >> unless you think there was pull forward on travel during the summer, during the spring when things were lifted and people were -- not that people are not employed the labor market is very strong. but they had jobs and had better

spending power now things are a little bit different with headlines of layoffs coming we know that the fed wants the unemployment rate to be higher we know that inflation is eroding people's ability to spend. it's a different environment now. >> it is, but if you think about the hospitality and travel stocks outside of bookings has traded well, always trades at a premium, double the multiple of expedia, but they never got that day in the sun if you look at where airlines are struggling to get back in -- i understand it's a macro call, talking about the companies in the pandemic, the unit economics are worse. the gross margins are going lower. i don't think they told us anything we don't know and i look at the -- a lot of these stocks and you price it in delta air lines has a quasi investor day in about a week i think the message from some of these airlines, the strong ones like delta, will be about they have cash in the balance sheet, they will hoping to pay down $15 billion of debt between now and '25.

i like airlines. it's a slow trade. today the entire sector got sold off and i think you buy that. >> the airlines have a lot of debt in general. is this the kind of company we should be worried about or is all this fixed rates and they make enough cash flow to service it, et cetera? >> right now they do so it's not sort of the more dire warning but it's sort of, i mean, we got some very mixed sort of mixed data and mixed sort of outlook among airlines on this network you know, was it scott kirby >> yeah. >> right was saying if i never heard any of this other stuff, i would think everything is going great. i think jetblue also i don't know why, well, i guess southwest sort of had a -- i don't know, a little bit of a different -- i don't know. i don't own the airlines they had a nice run before this little past while. but the debt story always scared me away. >> more "fast money" to come next - >> smartphones slashed

analysts hacking at iphone shipments as chinese production slows. is this going to take apple deeper into the red? plus, pot stocks getting snubbed out today as a push to legalization hits a major snag where do the investments go from here our cannabis king has some animals. we are back right after this

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that a lot of these sales would be brought, you know, sent through to the march quarter, she is leaving march estimates intact just in case, karen so in terms of the delayed or denied, it sort of opens the door to possible denial of these sales. >> right unless you would have thought the first quarter would have been down. this would have about been the delay filling in it's not great the stock had a big run this summer to 170, now back to the summer lows. i'm long it's not crazy expensive, but isn't cheap. we have seen this story before i feel like it's similar news for what we've been hearing for weeks. every time, the trade is down. i am not sort of chasing the news i'm long >> and that price action doesn't seem good. >> unfortunately, the technicals of it doesn't support until $10 or $15 lower in the stock. if it's going to be rinse and

repeat, same headwind stories, you have to wait for technicals to kick in, which is not until a little bit - >> yeah, you agree with that, guy, in terms of the price level? >> yeah, i do. i don't think it was katie that made this call not that it matters. with that said, i think it's a significant call and it's something we have been talking about and we do play the game. if you don't know it was apple, again, mid-single-digit eps growth, mid-single-digit growth, declining margins, trades at premium to the market, does that make sense the short answer is no i think that's manifesting in front of ours eyes here. it's not a catastrophic call here in apple, but steve is probably between 125 and 130 a level tim talked about seemingly in the cards especially if you think the broader market is due for a test of that 3,400 level. >> right that and i thought it was interesting how asian shares traded today on news that china is going to relax restrictions

more stocks rallied initially then that fizzled out. on the other side you worry about infections spiking and there being other lockdowns. so we're still at a point where apple is just another lockdown away from another production disruption at this point even though -- >> china reliance. >> even though good news opening up, also means a potential spike in infections. >> the china reliance is a part of the story we talked about this extra 3 million, 6 million, whatever it is, we went to every analyst on the street, they would cut 5 to 15 million on the iphone quarter it's not a question about there is demand. it's a 40-day lead time. people want the phone whether you delay or deny. you don't pay 24 times for apple. i rather 125 or south of that. >> if it's a supply chain issue, how come they haven't pulled out sooner they are going to i cakick to kt

to india it's not just apple. there is a lot of other corporations that are going to either be bringing it back here or bringing it to another country and india's probably the one who benefits the most. a story earlier in the week, pot stocks going up in smoke as congress declines to include marijuana reform in a broader defers bill. mitch mcconnell emphasized he didn't support the safe banking regulations. so, tim, we talked to you, we have seen this before. it seemed so close and doesn't happen and here we are again. >> the expectation of some type of a safe banking getting jammed into a lame duck session was always -- and i have been skeptical. i was constructive the other night. tell you what. that was the information we were getting from washington. it's not dead on arrival there is the chance to get into an omnibus spending bill before the end of the year.

the more you ask for, the less you get. mcconnell's point, you had two years to get this across the line they didn't because it was doa the whole time the good news for cannabis is the house competiosition has changed. republicans like nancy mace who have been out there. i think that the house about be more constructive and the senate now is going to be controlled by -- i think a lot of progress has been made. you are not investing in cannabis to play macro headlines, you are playing growth, consumption and the size of this addressable market. roger ferguson joins us to talk liquidity challenges. what you can expect ahead of the fed's last meeting and karen with an update on her germany trade against the broader market the details when "fast money" returns.

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well, that's the elephant in the room we are going to address. apparently guy's micro was hot that's what you heard.

>> you brought it up we were talking about the contract and what i thought about it, and i didn't think he was going to be here for the duration i probably used a few colorful words in my description of said contract i apologize. >> he is frustrated. >> anyway, moving on welcome back to "fast money. now you know what we do in the commercial breaks. markets closing basically flat the dow squeezing out a gain the s&p down 0.2%. the nasdaq faring worse, down a half a percent a couple names able to hit all-time highs, all notching records during the session and a huge move in a wbiotech name, surging 165% on promising results from the irritable bowel disease drugs, a $4 billion

company. >> you are in ulta. >> it's not one of those, oh, i should have owned it i was never going to own prometheus good for them. if there is something there and it seems like from the data, it seems to be, that would be very helpful to a lot of people you know, certainly makes you think who is going to buy them now? somebody interestingly, i saw cedars-sinai owns 11%. >> interesting. >> good for them that was a big hit today. >> yeah. all right. two areas of the market flashing warning signs. wti crude the lowest level since december, a couple of dollars away from below $70 a barrel and the spread between a three month and ten-year yield the most inverted in nearly 22 years. for more on what this is signaling, former federal reserve vice-chair roger ferguson also a cnbc contributor. welcome to the show. great to see you. >> thanks. nice to be here, melissa.

>> seems like these two things, these asset classes are telegraphing a recession where do you stand on that >> i think the asset classes are in fact as you say tell graphing a recession. what's rel grant is it's not just those markets doing that, but there are a number of ceos saying that i, myself, have said for a period of time a recession seems highly likely. so i think it's lining up. and the question is, is this going to be a short and shallow recession or one that's a little deeper or last a little longer. >> is that a big question mark in your view do you have that point of view on that? >> i am looking at short and shallow because the economy is showing so much momentum going into the economy with job markets still very tight it seems like there is just a lot of forward progress. that's not a contidition for a very, very deep recession unless there is an unexpected shock. >> roger, it's tim thank you for joining us my question is on the

inflationary impact of the labor market i think there are some that believe that the labor numbers are inflated and that actually the job market at least in terms of some of the pressure here may not be as strong can you talk about that because some of the gdp numbers we looked at showed some of the tax receipts were lower, et cetera is the labor market cooling faster than maybe some of the numbers suggest? >> i don't think the labor market is cooling faster than the numbers suggest. i think what is happening is we see a very uneven economy. so some sectors that are interest sensitive, housing most, obviously, clearly slowing down dramatically. some sectors that had a big pop after the opening after covid are seeing year over year growth slowing. so i don't think the issue is a labor market data being inaccurate in some way or the market cooling faster than we expect i think it's much more that there are many sectors being impacted differentially at this

stage. >> roger, the road to 2% i think is longer than the market gives it credit for. my point is, everybody is looking for the fed to pivot or pause. that might be the case but i think the duration may surprise people to the long side how do you sort of size that up? >> i agree with you completely i find it interesting that chair powell has talked about getting rates higher and keeping them there longer, yet the market seems to be holding out hope for a pivot. and so i think there is a disconnect it's been going on for some time the next meeting will tell us quite a bit, i think, and there will be a press conference so first we will see it the next meeting whether or not the so-called dot plots, the summary of economic redactions, show the terminal rate that is significantly higher or slightly higher than the last one and then we will hear in the press conference i think a reiteration of the expectation that markets may be

underestimating the time that it's going to take for the fed to turn to a pivot, so to speak, or how long it will keep rates higher i think i am aligned with you. i think the market is too optimistic about a rapid pivot because inflation really does seem to be pretty embedded >> roger, we got to leave there. we have breaking news. appreciate your time roger ferguson. breaking news here on the sentencing of former theranos president sunny balwani. scott. >> holmes norton was the public face and voice of theranos but her mentor and ex-boyfriend sunny balwani will do more prison time. just shy of 13 years in prison for sunny ball juan any. elizabeth holmes 11 years, three months the judge said that ball juan any knew about the fraud,

perpetuated continued a suggested that it was ingredient that motivated this. balwani's attorneys argued he put nearly $5 million of his own money into the company, he lost it all but the prosecution argued that he only put that money in because he thought he was going it to take billions out as a result of this fraud balwani has been ordered to report to prison by march 15th he is certain to appeal. yes w elizabeth holmes is appealing here sentence. sunny balwani sentenced to 13 years in prison. the restitution yet to be determined. >> thank you. getting back to roger ferguson, i think, guy, the last question in terms of the notion of the market believing that there will be an actual pivot, that after we get to this rate terminal rate that there will be a reversal somehow we have not factored in that idea, but the rate can stay high

for a very long time what is the impact of that rate staying higher as opposed to reversing? >> that's the lag effect that i think the market is trying to deal with now. again i am happy he agreed with me, obviously. but i think the market is slowly coming to the realization they might pause. we have clearly seen in terms of cpi the peak number. but the persistence of inflation is here for a while. and a pause doesn't mean a pivot. and you think that's a really important distinction. and i think through '23 we could see a year of elevated rates and slower results on the back of it in terms of equities, in terms of earnings, and in terms of revenue growth i think that's what people have to come to grips with. >> once the yooeld inverted you knew there would be a recession. you didn't know how long it would last the fed is notorious for acting slow and staying too long. they could turn a shallow in a deeper recession >> coming up, lululemon shares

stretching all over the place this year. will earnings tomorrow help shares reach nirvana more on that first, g uten trade. german is not my forte karen has been update on her germany call we are berlin the tas r deilfo you. [ laughter ] >> wow and want to make the right moves fast... get decision tech from fidelity. [ cellphone vibrates ] you'll get proactive alerts for market events before they happen... and insights on every buy and sell decision. with zero-commission online u.s. stock and etf trades. for smarter trading decisions, get decision tech from fidelity.

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welcome back to "fast money. a few months back karen looked overseas for opportunity and found it in germany. her ewg trade has climbed nearly 16% whale the broader u.s. market is still negative what do you do here, karen >> i sell, actually. i thank you for bringing that up today. one, it's nice to remember a good one two, because it really made me think why were you in it, what did you think would happen it worked, and so i don't want to have inertia take it over what happened was what i hoped would happen, and it did if we look, we have a chart here, what happened in germany, we had a couple of things that were terrible then that are a lot less terrible now. energy was, obviously, a big one. the valuation got way, way, way out of whack so thanks for pointing that out. maybe you will come to the dark side one day [ laughter ]

>> so we actually had a guest, portfolio manager on, talking about european ideas one of the things that i brought up and i think is another part of this, too, the currency impact when you are investing overseas there is a currency impact not so much with developed markets as tm. the move between the dollar and euro such a big move and some is because of central bank differentials. despite what we say about our fed, those dollars pulled back, 5.5%, i think it continues to go lower. i think that helps the european story and the energy story gets better for europe and food prices. >> you think there is more juice in the trade >> karen is right. it outperformed the s&p 17% since october. >> we were texting about this earlier i said the easy money has been made on this one. what we've seen as these guys have pointed out in terms of the huge improvement in inflation, even just that picture has improved vastly over the past month, guy, and, you know, who

knows what it will be in a month. >> yeah, but this goes pack to something tim talked about for years on this show the most fruitful trades are when things go from really terrible to just bad and i think that's exactly what karen caught here. from really terrible to just bad. now, to her point, there could be some more runway left why bother when you have had a gain like this that's a great trade illustrating the point sometimes when things look the worst, you know, that's when you are hoping you get that from terrible to just bad scenario that karen just got. >> you know, i think we have to make it through the winter it's a smart idea to sell it you have to make it through the winter, see what that looks like this was about the war, about inflation. if we are going into a recession, europe is probably going into a much worse recession than us. >> coming up, lululemon earnings on deck. how will this trade owork out "options action" next. more "fast money" in two

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welcome back a sneak peek at the cramer cam

jim is talking to the cre of pinterest. that's at the top of the hour on "mad money." lululemon shares ticking high outperforming the market this year, down 5%. option traders are bet ogging on a huge move tomorrow kevin kelly joins us with the action what did you see >> so heading into today lululemon stock was only down about 5% for the year, really outperforming broad-based averages you saw 1.6 times the amount of calls versus puts, which is semi bullish. what's interesting is that tomorrow's implied move is around 9%. and the average move is about 2.64% for the stock. so it's very big and we actually saw is a trader come in today and make a trade off of that move they did a straddle. they went out and bought the december 320 put and then also bought the 435 call straddle

that expires this friday it cost him about $1.20. they need the stock to move over that 9% move for the shares by friday close >> all right kevin, thanks. kevin kelly. kelly intelligence karen, how are you feeling about lulu >> i am long lulu. i'm sharp upside calls it's been good not a huge position because it's so expensive i think the numbers will be great. they are priced for great, you know they are really priced for great. i love it. but i can't say, oh, it should -- they should get a bigger multiple. they have a rich multiple. >> in this environment guy? how about lieu >> 33 -- yeah, no, a decent run. 33 times next year's numbers you have to see counts above 20%. here is what concerns me a little bit we traded up to the april high, seemingly failed, a short-term double top a lot of analysts have come out bullish in the name recently if you have the, wait for it,

temerity, i think you stay long in the name into earnings. >> very good word. >> you know guy is wearing lulu below deck right now. >> i don't want to know. >> i don't know why you know that's a whole other kind of show >> we went to college together. >> that's right. >> all right for more "options action" tune in friday, 5:30 eastern. up next, final trades. thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever. because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back. researchers believe the first person to live to 150 has already been born.

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♪ time for the final trade guy? >> below deck. i love it. mck. mckesson. >> i don't think we used that term, like, ever on "fast mon money.". >> tim >> there is nothing naughty about it it says what's going on below deck wolv walking /* walgreens very cheap. they righted some of the wrongs on distribution. >> is anybody going to say about them wearing the same outfit look at those boxes. amazing. >> you have a good look, you go with it, right >> i got you. >> steve >> me? >> yeah.

>> that was quick, bunge, i think it's going to work. >> and karen >> so long, farewell to ewg. thank you. >> nice job. >> thanks for watching "fast money. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 for more hey, i'm cramer. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm trying to make you a little money my job not just to entertain but to make this make sense to you entertain, teach so-call me at 800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcrar.