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tv   Worldwide Exchange  CNBC  December 8, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EST

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it is 5:00 a.m. here at cnbc global h5eadquarters. here is your top "five@5." in china, stocks are soaring as they shift away from the zero covid policies and not out of the woods yet reports that the fed is taking a closer look at sam bankman-fried and his role in the collapse of two cryptocurrencies plus, tension in the cloud as looking to re-take the role of salesforce.
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and sticker shock in the big apple. how much new yorkers are paying up to have a roof over their heads. it is thursday, december 8th you are watching "worldwide exchange" here on cnbc good morning i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan i help your thursday is getting off to a good start. the s&p notched the fifth straight down day in a row the futures are basically flat they could open slightly higher. it is very early let's look at bond markets this is where all of the action is bond markets the 10-year treasury at 3.447. that is more than 60 basis points from a month ago. 2-year treasury is 50 basis points from a month ago. the yield curve is still inverted turning attention to oil oil market is up slightly this
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morning. however, the price per barrel is down over the last month surprising with the opec meeting and cuts something to watch as china is continuing to be closed. cryptocurrency with bitcoin below a key level of 17,000. 1 $16,800. crypto is flat all over this morning. sam bankman-fried is a factor in that. let's check on the overnight action in asia and trade in europe with joumanna bercetche in the london newsroom good morning, joumanna >> good morning, frank the picture for asian markets overnight was tilted toward negative territory you see a lot of red on the board behind me despite the focus on the covid easing measures from beijing and also with a report suggesting that hong kong may go down a similar path hang seng up 3%.
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not so much for the chinese index. china is battling with weak macro data that has come out on the weak side. nikkei is down .40%. down in japan as well. worth pointing out the index is at a one-month low over here in europe, it is leaning to the red stoxx 600 is down 1.5% ftse 100 in the uk down .10 the.10% overall in the uk, we are focused on the industrial action taking place in the next couple weeks. that could be disruptive for the travel sector. one final look at the italian index. i'm in front of it down 10% worth noting that spread with the italian yield and german yield is 80 basis points tighter
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since the italian elections. there could be bumping coming up something that is not on a lot of investors radars that we want to flag today. >> joumanna, thank you very much. let's get a check of the top corporate stories. silvana henao is here with those. good morning, silvana. >> good morning to you, frank. federal prosecutors are investigating whether sam bankman-fried manipulated the market in may. the manipulation which led to the collapse and implosion of his firm ftx the investigation is in its early stages and not clear if officials have enough to determine wrongdoing tensions rising at salesforce months before the company announced bret taylor would step down. according to the wall street journal, marc benioff and taylor were at odds including issues with how taylor was splitting
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time with salesforce and twitter. taylor's exit will mark the second time in three years that benioff has parted ways with a ceo. tech layoffs continue. this time plaid is laying off 20% of the staff ceo detailing the announcement in a message to employees blaming quote macroeconomics conditions and slower than expected growth. frank. >> a lot going on in tech. salesforce is a huge story big world tour in new york city. i'll be there. something to watch silvana, thank you a lot to watch silvana, thank you very much. turning attention to the broader markets. the consumer the past two years has been supporting the u.s. economy thanks to stimulus checks and low unemployment and wage gains that may change as the fed moves to impact the health and
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behavior of the consumer which is making our next guest nervous. kevin simpson is the cio at capital wealth >> good morning, frank >> we are talking about the consumer you share a big impactful number peak savings in 2020 was $6.4 trillion now falling to $581 billion. what does that say about the strength of the consumer >> the u.s. consumer kept the economy on its shoulders for so long i'm concerned how much longer with we do it? if you think of a $6.4 trillion, it was a pandemic lockdown and no spending and massive stimulus for the past two years, we have been burning through the number. to put the $581 billion in perspective, it sounds like a big number we have to go back to the great recession in 2009 to see u.s. savings rates that low, frank.
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we can't spend in perputuity when you factor in how high interest rates are going, i'm starting to get nervous about where we go from here with respect to interest rates on credit cards and savings rate that low, frank. >> you are concerned i was covering cyber monday. numbers for cyber monday were better than expected i'm throwing actually because people were worried about the impact the strong numbers on cyber monday and holiday season. what does that mean for the strength of the consumer for 2023 >> i think we will run out of the ability to keep hitting those numbers. $11.3 billion in sales on cyber monday the wall street journal had an
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all article out that we were down 9% from 2020. 2020 is a little bit different with spring break and getting out of covid and heading into next year. companies see it of the if you look at amazon and target. they lowered estimates for the fourth quarter they warned of lower sales and holiday spending federal express is an example. instead of bringing on hundreds of thousands of seasonal works, they are furloughing certain people in departments. vf came out for the second time this month warned of lower sales for the quarter and for the holiday spending season. i'm concerned about how that translates into 2023 especially if we consider continued fed increases and rates and continued quantitative tightening it means we need to be conservative and frugal and curtail spending to prepare for potential recession. >> kevin, we have to go in a
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second what sector is deeply impacted by the flagging sector with the consumer >> i think discretionary will get hit. we were looking at consumer staples as a place to hide if we look at reoptpositions, i like energy andin healthcare. you need to look at companies with revenue extremes. you cannot be dependent on the consumer the consumer may not back us up as much in 2023. >> kevin, i know we can count on the eagles we will text about it later. >> go birds. turngsing attention to the nation's capitol lookingat the long to-do list and reaching agreement on the government funding bill to avoid a shutdown next week we have nbc's brie jackson from washington with more
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the latest issue in d.c. >> reporter: frank, that's right. congress must act fast when it comes to passing age spending l and get military funded. congress needs to pass this before next weekend to avoid a government shutdown. it is crunch time on capitol hill lawmakers must pass a spending bill before december 16th or risk a government shutdown democrats want to set the spending agenda before republicans take control of the house next month >> p we hope to get an omnibus done to avoid the problem of mccar ty having any control. >> reporter: republicans want a short term deal instead. >> we don't have overall agreement on how much we spend >> reporter: the clock is ticking on authorization of the military budget. there are hold ups over issues likeneding the defense
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department vaccine mandate and funding for ukraine. administration officials say stalled talks could have negative impacts across the board. >> goes beyond ukraine >> reporter: another issue rounding out the year-end deadlines is the january 6th final report members say we could see criminal referrals soon. >> obviously, the former president was at the center of the effort to overthrow the government it would be foolish for me to say that's not something we're looking at >> reporter: the january 6th committee will look at recommendations to see how to prevent this from happening again. referrals carry no legal weight. it is up to federal prosecutors to decide whether to pursue charges. frank. >> you mentioned several deadlines, brie. what is the status for the respect for marriage act >> reporter: the house is expected to vote on that act later today.
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this after the senate made changes and it is going back to the house it is expected to pass this is an effort that democrats plan to pass through the house later today, they are expected to have a bill ceremony to further codify federal protections for same-sex and inte interracial marriage. and when we come back, a closer look at the shares of carvana. and mastercard is out with a look at the consumer spending. and disney plus launching the tier supported streaming service. a very busy hour still ahead when "worldwide exchange" returns. (vo) verizon has business internet solutions nationwide. (man) for our not-so-small business too. (vo) get internet that keeps your business ready for anything. from verizon.
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welcome back mastercard out with the outlook on the consumer and spending offering a unique picture for the year ahead joining me now is chief economist and head of the mastercard institute brickland myers. >> thank you, frank. good to be here. >> inflation has about on the mark for 2022. what is your forecast for inflation going forward in 2023? >> so, inflation is the key
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theme for 2022 we have all gotten intimately familiar with how painful inflation can be inflation is expected to come down significantly in 2023 as we look for a topping out of inflation over the next couple months, we expect inflation to reach about 7.1% in q4 2022 and moving down 4.1% in 2023 by the end of the year. a significant decline. >> i have to ask obviously, this is the estimate. 7.1%, this is globally and then 3.1% in q3 next year i want to ask about what is weighing on the markets. that is the high employment rate in the united states that is one reason the fed hasn't paused or pivoted give me a sense of where
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inflation is going globally in the year ahead >> employment is depending on which market and sector we're going into with rising rates and places like the u.s., we expect more than another 100 basis points of rate hikes across the world, there continues to be rate hikes there is a throttling back of rate hikes which is key right now that we see from central banks, including from the u.s., but also markets like australia, canada and europe. central banks are looking at the rate increase and throttling back based on what is happening in the labor markets and unemployment markets and what is happening with inflation inflation is coming down and starting to throttle that back that limits some of the pain in labor markets. >> when we get the sense of the health of the consumer is how people shop for groceries.
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what are we seeing are people buying as much as people during the pandemic a lot of stocking up and pantry loading in the pandemic. >> one of the keys of the outlook is looking at trading down trading down product and brand and trading down store if you think about going to the store and you make that tradeoff of buying the name-brand product or store brand product or thinking where to shop, it is showing up most in grocery that is showing how the consumer is changing behavior today in order to continue to consume in the experience economy it really is changing behavior and that aisle shopping at grocery stores and thinking how they can continue to spend on the experiences that they missed out during the pandemic. >> another factor that is on the minds of the federal reserve in the united states is housing costs. one factor in the core pce number they pay attention to where are housing costs in the
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united states going? we are talking about the housing market in new york later in the show what direction is it going >> i heard the stat just now on rents going up in new york city. the cost of housing is changing. interest rates go up and passed along to the consumer and mostly vis-a-vis, the interest rate sectors. housing and autos are the first big ones to get hit. you see the rotation out of the sectors and into other sectors the good news is it frees up a bit of money and people connected to the housing and autos end up getting hit harder than others you will see that shift or that wallet transfer from interest rates back to the economy. >> bricklin, we have to get you a plant or bookcase. you have a blank wall. thank you. still on deck on "worldwide exchange." your big money movers.
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shares of rent the runway surge. the full story when "worldwide exchange" returns. stay with us >> announcer: today's big number 94%. that was the drop in nft sales last month compared to the january high according to data by dapp radar. overall sales have hit the lowest level since july of 2021. with s sentiment help you find and unlock opportunities in the market with powerful, easy-to-use tools power e*trade makes complex trading easier react to fast-moving markets with dynamic charting and a futures ladder that lets you place, flatten, or reverse orders so you won't miss an opportunity
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welcome back to "weatx. shares of gamestop popping after the miss on earnings and cash reserves for the third quarter down from $1.3 billion a year. gamestop in the middle of the company wide rervamp to become prof profitable and rent the runway adding restructuring plan which is almost complete. the market cap at the open will be over $110 million a stock we don't talk about. it will expect full year sales to be up to $295 million shares of carvana off the worst day on record. fell 42% yesterday up 4% now after reports of the two creditors filed a pact for debt renegotiations for the
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company. carvana is consulting about a debt restructuring shares are up 4% this morning. let's get a check of the other headlines outside of the world of business with phillip mena >> frank, good morning january 6th committee will release the final report a week before christmas on december 21st bennie thompson said there will be a formal presentation referrals for the doj will be included. in a few hours, the house will codify same-sex marriage protections. lawmakers passed an earlier version of the respect for marriage act in july with 267-160 vote because the senate made changes to the legislation, another vote is needed before it heads to president biden's desk following the passage, nancy
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pelosi and chuck schumer will hold a bill enrollment ceremony. the premiere of "harry and meghan" is debuting today. it is a tricky 24 hours to see what revelations will be made. >> a lot of drama with the royals a lot of people interested in that show. first, it was elizabeth holmes and then the second in ar is facing his sentencing. "worldwide exchange" will be right back
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welcome back to "worldwide exc exchange." i'm frank holland in for brian sullivan futures are muted. a flat open on wall street we are still well, well, well before the opening bell. also a check on the bond market. this is something to watch with the fed meeting next week. the 10-year treasury at 3.44 the 2-year treasury at 4.27. that is 50 points from a month ago. the gap with the 2/10 year it is widening again certainly something to watch this is seen as a recession indicator. we want to get a check on oil. wti down 10% week to date. right now, we see it is trading at $73 a barrel. brent crude at $78 a barrel.
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turning attention to the top stories with silvana henao she is back with those good morning, silvana. >> good morning, frank frank, the former business partner of elizabeth holmes has been sentenced in the failed start up the judge sentencing sunny balwani to 13 years after 12 counts of fraud. balwani had direct oversight over the lab where is the biggest examples of misconduct took place the sentencing comes after elizabeth holmes was sentenced to 11 years in prison last month. tiktok is facing fresh legal action indiana filing action against the company. the platform is deceiving consumers. it adds tiktok should be proh
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prohibited from children allowing access to addult content. and the average rent for the manhattan spot is hitting $5,200 a month. this is adding to inflation since rent is a large part of the inflation index and new york is the largest rental market in the nation. >> the housing costs everybody is watching core pce waiting for the fed decision tough to live in new york city >> costs a lot >> silvana, thank you. it has been a rough stretch for salesforce sh sales down 14% since the mixed results report a week ago. marc benioff says the industry is shifting.
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and executives are leaving we will get more information from benioff with the keynote address as the salesforce world tour in new york city at the javits center. the fund is down 50% this year let's talk about this with sophie yates thank you for being here >> good morning. >> i think we have to start with the elephant in the room how do you see salesforce? shares are down due to exits and flagging demand numbers. benioff says his business is shifting what does that mean? >> yes, absolutely there is really multiple headwinds blowing against salesforce you look at the price. they are down 50% year to date there are clearly challenges here one of the really big problems at the moment is the enterprise
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is corporations with access to cheap capital is reduced that means actually some companies are going to put off the big upfront costs that are needed to migrate on to the cloud or boost cloud abilities in various areas of the business that is a strugglcture headwind that will continue if you look at salesforce, it is geared to sales and marketing which is the corner of the economy that suffers in economic d downturns. challenges ahead the bulls in the room would say the share price punishment has been overdone. we could re-rate if things turn in q1. we have to wait and see. >> benioff said ceos are changing their thoughts with spending with markets. salesforce is not alone. sales and marketing may be slowing down
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we heard similar comments from palo alto and crowdstrike. we are seeing a slowdown there what do you attribute that to? >> absolutely. it comes down to that same point which is companies are really doing all they can to rein in costs. we know the environment and people are spending on cybersecurity which is shocking. we need to be careful in terms of slowdown. i think certain areas of the cloud environment are certainly better than others i think cybersecurity is one of those. yes, we are seeing a slowdown. i do think the structure growth story and long-term outlook is really strong. in terms of why the slowdown is happening right now is simply because of the desperate need to get hold of the bottom line and boost numbers. >> if you are a long-term
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investors, the cloud transition is something you want to invest. more in the near term with the potential recession coming up and rate hike coming up. how do you see the cloud sector when it comes to investability is now a good time to invest in cloud stocks is this a good time to buy the dip or is this an issue stocks will face in the year ahead? >> i think the tale of two halves there are strong players in the space. i really don't think we can say with certainty that cloud is a declining industry that is how i feel i think there are bumpis in the road look at microsoft's cloud last quarter up in the region of 30%. the numbers are double digit still. that is not to be knocked. i think the valuation down turns have been overdone that said, you need to be discerning because i think as i
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said certain areas of the economy are adversely naaffected i think we are a fork in the road and that will be more pronounced >> sophie, is that really the issue with these companies and stocks valuation has climbed too high >> in essence, a lot of cases yes. a lot of tech and i don't think we will see a full recovery into the valuations that we have seen in recent years. do i think there is a little bit of room for semblance of a bounce yes, i do. i don't think we're going to get back to the heavy days that we have seen in the last few years. the valuations did get too excitable. i think the outlook was maybe seen as a bit more sprite than it really is. >> you don't hear that too often.
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sophie lund-yates, thank you very much. coming up, big movers of the multibillion dlar ouolcld deal with the u.s. government "worldwide exchange" is back in a minute why are 93% of sleep number sleepers satisfied with their bed? maybe it's because you can gently raise your partner's head to help relieve snoring. so you can both stay comfortable all night. save $1000 on our most popular sleep number 360 smart bed. only for a limited time. my finances were all over the place. and my banking relationship was getting...well, complicated.
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in 40 years. the members are fed up with the talks on the contract since it expired in march of last year. the paper has contingency plans. the pentagon awarding cloud contracts to google , amazon and microsoft. amazon with the biggest. oracle up .50% this comes after the defense department decided to award the contract earlier this year the deal puts the military in line with the private sector which splits cloud work. exxonmobil boosting pay for employees by 10% that is above the rate of inflation. shares up this morning after the producer reported record-breaking profits. employees promoted seeing additional 5% raise. to the streaming wars. disney officially rolls out the ad supported tier of the disney plus platplatform.
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it will cost $7.99 a month the move comes as disney continues to face mounting operated losses from the streaming endeavors. those numbers are growing and growing totally $1.5 billion for more, let's bring in alex cantowitz. alex, great to see you. >> thank you, frank. >> we talked about the ad supported tiers before for disney plus, what does it mean for sub vscriber growth >> one of the surprising things here is the ad platform will be released at the same platform as ad free before you will not get that reduced turn the question is how much money will it bring in i saw the prediction by 2025,
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$1.8 billion you mentioned at the top that $1.5 billion of losses in the quarter. this is a strategic mistake for disney if disney wanted to make moves, i would lower the price or continue to be ad free and surge against netflix. this may hamper it in the name of financial engineering, i don't love it. >> where are we in the state of the streaming wars is there really a war going on >> i think there is absolutely a war. you know, we are still making this move from lineal television to video on demand or video scre streaming. you are starting to see the companies with growth starting to tail off. they are trying different strategies to milk that asset they have right now. disney still did grow 12 million subscribers in the recent quarter. there is growth to be had.
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we will see. it will be a tough time as we go through the economic downturn. >> we are showing the streaming service and prices per month as we look at this, are we headed toward a price the wall you mentioned the ad supported tier is the same price as the ad free tier now. is this a price war or an era of content? >> i think all of the services are counting on people spending the way they did during covid and boom times that is a surprise that disney had lower rate for supported tier netflix has a bit of a discount. if the companies wants the tiers to be successful, they will lower and lower more especially as we go through the times about savings rates going down and people's expectations for spending to go down over the years to come. i think a price war is definitely a good bet with the
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companies even if we don't see it at the moment >> we heard netflix ceo say he had a revelation he realized that people want ads on there and benefit to netflix. he mentioned multiple ad tiers what do you think about that multiple tiers for different price points is that something we will see in the future >> i think we could see it the offering from netflix is fairly ad light although it is advertising. it is nothing like television normally could you opt to get lower price and see more advertising it is possible i'm sure they have their financial folks going and crunching numbers as they see the early results come in. that is what every ceo when they introduce advertising and say they didn't realize the demand they decide for whatever reason
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not to go for it the market dictates it now when profits are crucial, they will do whatever they can to meet. >> in your mind, what is the best of class when we talk about the streamers? >> i think the one to watch is amazon prime amazon has the luxury they don't need to make the numbers work the same way netflix would they can justify some of the spend on content that sends people back to the shopping experience you see things thursday night football or "lord of the rings" show which is a boon for e-commerce signups that gets the company to spend more and offer more content for lower money. it is the flywheel that amazon likes to talk about. drawing more people in she they shop. they watch content better selection on the site amazon in my opinion is the one
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to watch >> thursday night football i watch, but the games are never really that good baker mayfield if you are a football fan, you understand alex kantrowitz, thank you the s&p and nasdaq looking to snap the losing streak. the insight the next guest says provides opportunity. if you miss "wlddeorwi exchange" check us out on spotify or other podcast apps. "worldwide exchange" will be right back [newscast audio]
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well come back. a busy day ahead for investors at 8:30, we get the jobless claim figures and earnings results from broadcom and costco and hearings from the ftc trust bid over meta ar
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one more check on stock futures with the s&p and nasdaq looking to stop the skid futures are basically flat nasdaq looking to pop a little at the open. it's very early. more for more on the trading day ahead is sylvia jablonski. thank you for waking up with us. >> thank you >> sylvia, let me start with you. futures are flat multiday skid. what do you expect on the day ahead? >> good morning. you know, the day ahead is unpredictable. we went from the situation with the market was rallying because the fed was turning down and talked about finishing up. it got investors off the sidelines and traders trading. it was followed by overly hot job numbers and increased wages
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and that set us back i think we are in the purgatory phase until we get past the point of the fed doing the right hikes and we see earnings and get clarity around the recession. i think most investors are now going from obsessed with the fed to being obsessed with soft landing or hard landing. >> you know winter is coming you think winter is here how will that play out in the earnings after the bell and during today and going forward >> i do think we need to see earnings come in more. we have started to see some margin compleprecompression. we need to see more of that. i do think the yield curve is indicating a recession i think that is likely typically you don't see the bottom of the market until you hit peak inflation and you start
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to see earnings decline. i just think consensus earnings for next year which is still too high out there while we have seen the market come down a lot on multiple compression, we still need earnings to come in here a little bit the volatility the market is bringing us every day as sylvia alluded to creates opportunities. >> sylvia, where are the opportunities? a lot of people getting out of cloud stocks and security flagging there is an issue with consumer demand slowing down. this is an issue for the fed meeting coming up. >> i would argue everywhere depending on the holding period. if you have a long-teermrm investment horizon, this is when markets are dismal and 30% off all-time highs you mentioned tech amazon, google, microsoft, apple. all of these names are 20% or
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50% off the 52-week highs. i don't think cloud is going anywhere innovation is not going anywhere 5g electric vehicles. labor forces and fixing supply chains this requires technology that plays out in the next decade it is grossly beat off on the sales. and the tax credits from the inflation act. move to go carbon by 2050 and the element in the earth is c harnessed to generate energy they are looking for that for the next gas energy play and the form pharmaceuticals ad whether or not we are in a recession and diversify the portfolio. long-term, there are longer term for the next couple of years,
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alternative energy and pharma. >> those are the sectors to watch. everybody is trying to pick st stocks it is not like the pandemic where you throw all in tech. ann, one stock i'm watching is salesforce they want to lower -- i'm sorry. raise revenue by fiscal 2026 they want to improve the margins. is margins what you are watching >> margins are important we are looking for margin compression and avoid companies with great compression our investment teams really who are stock pickers at heart are watching for cash flow the direction of cash flow will tell you about the direction of the balance sheet. if we are headed into recession, what you want to be sure you have are companies that control their own destination. you can't control the macro. cfos cannot control the macro,
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but they can control what is happening internally and cash flow can give them flexibility in times of downturn, companies can actually really gain strength bying using their balance sheets aggressively or being hand tied because they have a weak balance sheet. i would say cash flow and watching balance sheets. i agree with sylvia. the opportunities are widespread across the market. i'm hearing that from our portfolio mappnagers there is a lot of opportunity. the market was not discriminate in taking multiples down across the board here there will be opportunities. investors are also looking for yields i would say stocks that have yields might be more attractive going forward. >> very interesting. i want to ask one other
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question free cash flow is critical it is a backward looking metric. it doesn't give you a sense of the current quarter. >> it may be a backward looking metric, however, it still tells you the strength if you look at historically the ability of the company to generate cash flow, combined and it is never one metric i should have said that in the beginning. if you look at what cash flow has done historically, combining that with the history of the management team whether or not they lived through previous cycles and many lived there inflation cycles challenging environments the stremngth of the balance sheet matters. all combined matter. it is not revenue growth alone certainly revenue growth matters. we would not write off tech
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either >> sylvia, is the faang trade back is the rest of the group back in your mind? >> to ann's point, these companies have great balance sheets they can survive a recession if you pick apart the data like amazon and microsoft, they were hammered after earnings. analysts were disappointed and the market punished the stocks if you look at cloud growth from 50% year over year to 30% year over year growth i'll take that we will not get 20% to 30% return on the stocks, but lower double digit returns as we get out of the recession i stand by the point that advertising will come back and google will play there and in cloud. amazon, ev commerce. the consumer is strong now we will have the recession you are thinking long term
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amazon is not a stock you want to buy for a couple of months and sell it is a stock you want to hold for a decade especially down 45%. i do like tech >> sylvia, thank you ann miletti, thank you that does it for us here on "worldwide exchange. "squawk box" is coming up next ready to shine from the inside out? say “yes” to nature's bounty advanced gummies and jelly beans. the number one brand for hair, skin and nails. with two times more biotin to bring out more of your inner beauty. get more with nature's bounty.
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good morning stocks in hong kong jumping overnight after reports that said the city is set to follow beijing's lead and shifting away from strict covid requirements. reports this morning say the feds are taking a closer look at sam bankman-fried and his role in the collapse of two
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cryptocurrencies a growing number of states are cracking down on tiktok banning the app from government devices. it is thursday, december 8th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in sometimes square i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. things have been flat this morning. this comes after another down day for the market barely for the dow this continues the streak we have seen. the dow is off 6 points. nasdaq off 23 points s&p up 3.5 again, markets are in a bit of a

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