cryptocurrencies a growing number of states are cracking down on tiktok banning the app from government devices. it is thursday, december 8th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq market site in sometimes square i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. things have been flat this morning. this comes after another down day for the market barely for the dow this continues the streak we have seen. the dow is off 6 points. nasdaq off 23 points s&p up 3.5 again, markets are in a bit of a

malaise. we did see stocks jump in hong kong overnight after media reports that said the city is considering easing covid measures and lifting the outdoor masks rule and lifting testing for arrivals that market is up 3.4% they could see as much as 60% of the population get infected. it is catching up with the rest of the world at this point the treasury markets are screaming recession if you look at the 2/10 year 3.449% for the 10-year treasury. the biggest spread we have seen in over 40 years as you continue to watch that. that has been a signal that you could get recession. it is not always right if you look at crude oil wti is up just barely. $72.44 that is below 24 hours ago

wti is down 18% over the last month. it has been spurred by decline in worldwide energy demand and concerns of what is happening in the demand picture >> if you are under the illusion that the demonstrations worked in china, you need to look closer of what is happening there. economic numbers released every day and export data released yesterday. plunging >> because of the lockdowns. >> because of the lockdowns. property the property sector is under water. there's all these -- it is all coming home to roost i'm scared for the chinese people >> in terms of protections >> yeah. it is a virgin population in terms of the immune systems which have seen covid. we know. do the math on over 1 the billion people over the age -- on how many are over the age of

65 and multiply by 1.4 billion you get that number. will they let us know what is happening? there is no way we won't see icus if they don't have beds >> they are building >> they are trying they built a quarter of a million. 250,000 beds in one area 250,000 on 1.4 billion >> do you have workers who can manage the beds? it is one thing to have beds, but another thing for healthcare workers to care for them >> they are so under bedded, if you will, than europe and other parts of the world >> can you keep that quiet the number of deaths they reported up to this point. do you think that is the number of cases what happens if it really, really mushrooms hopefully it doesn't we talked about this a couple o weeks ago.

either you stay the way it is or relax. neither one is good. >> we talked here about having rsv and covid and flu circulating at the same time this population has been with exposed to all of these things it is the younger kids which haven't been exposed enough. we have much higher quality problems than what they are dealing with that is reflected in wti gasoline prices are falling in the united states as well. if you are watching the national average. it is down to $3.33 a gallon that is down 14 cents from a week ago it is now fallen a penny below a year ago sharply down from $5 a gallon in june. let's bring you up to date on the latest on the ftx saga. prosecutors are investigating if sam bankman-fried manipulated the market back in may and led to the collapse of ftx

the investigation is in the early stages and not clear if officials have enough to determine wrongdoing thus far. three people close to ftx say sam bankman-fried, ceo, of course, of that company lobbied for partnership with taylor swift. at the same time, the crypto meltdown was draining liquidity. the deal would have cost ftx more than $100 million over three years. the company executives were begging sam bankman-fried to preserve cash and stop spending on celebrity endorsements. after the swift deal fell apart, there were deals kati perry. and we will talk to kevin o'leary. he will explain his relationship and talking vesinvestments here

"squawk box. don't miss it. >> people that dodged the relationships. they have to be thanking their lucky stars. $100 million >> she turned it down. >> $100 million is a lot of money to say no to kati perry >> the first piece of the story which is the new york times piece that suggests potential prosecution around manipulation is the other side. we talked about co-mingling of funds and how things are valued. the other question is was alameda on one end the hedge fund because they had access potentially, depends if you believe there was a wall between the two, to see the trades in advance. this is a little bit like payment for order flow in a different way and whether this is seeing the trades and not taking the other side, but

actually making the trade prior. >> it was lucrative until it wasn't >> when you don't have u.s. regulators watching, what are the rules? obviously it stinks to high heaven >> if sunny got 13 years, it makes you wonder. >> what laws are we talking about? these are not regular securities laws there are no securities. >> they will subpoena him. he will go to testify. he doesn't show up and gets in big trouble for not showing up and avoiding a subpoena and denying them you know that can put people in prison or he will go and show up and lie and they will catch him on it >> i would go straight if you believe the crime has been chommitted, straight wire fraud. >> this will be sped up with a

subpoena i hope they do this quickly. he said i want time to go look through it you are talking to everybody under the sun. come and talk about it here where you have subpoena power and let's see what you say under oath. >> what did we get capone on >> tax evasion. >> now we have your 80,000 guys looking over that. beating the bushes for every penny. >> at the irs. they are not agents, my friend it's nice somebody will pick up the phone at the irs when you have a problem >> if you get a call from the irs, they don't call by phone. you know that. it is a letter >> you had somebody try to scam you. >> they probably won't prey on you. they prey on the elderly don't believe it everybody out there. do not believe it. you will get a letter. there's a lot of calls call them back and they answer

irs. unbelieva unbelievable state of indiana filed a lawsuit against tiktok about the content and data security. the algorithm is designed to addict young users and promotes harmful content that is not age appro appropriate. the lawsuit follows moves by states like nebraska, south dakota, south carolina, arkansas, texas and maryland to ban the use of tiktok on the state networks i'll talk to the governor of maryland about the emergency order today. we will talk to him at 10:00 a.m. >> 8:10. >> 8:10. let's update the saga of the cloud computing efforts. amazon, alphabet and oracle and

microsoft got the shared ceiling contract they awarded it to microsoft in 2019 originally. amazon and oracle challenged it. in 2020, the review found no foul play and the pentagon decided to stick with microsoft. last year, the pentagon asked forbids from alphabet and oracle and amazon that is looking to rely on multiple providers of technology a strategy used by companies to better withstand outages and service disruption we learned with the supply chain the problem with putting all your eggs in one basket. >> i almost stopped reading that did you see the head shot? >> of larry hogan. >> the head shot more hair than i have. oh, the new one. that's the better one. yeah we switched that quickly >> i didn't.

i missed it. i was looking at you because you stopped. >> i couldn't believe it who the hell is that he had a hard job. being governor being governor, the buck stops on your desk meantime, we are learning more about the the shakeup of salesforce tensions rising in the top ranks of the company before co-ceo bret taylor left marc benioff and taylor were at odds and how taylor was splitting time with salesforce and twitter. taylor's exit next year will mark the second time in less than three years that benioff was looking to inn sstall someo as ceo he will have the world tour from salesforce today at the javits

center he said you need to let a caged tiger out of the tcage when bret took the job, the intention was to be in said job. i don't think this was planned from the beginning. >> they had a falling out. >> there were crazy things that happened he took this job a day after becoming chairman at twitter who could have anticipated with the chaos there. that had to take a lot of time and attention because there were so many lawyers and things people were watching closely you saw salesforce numbers start to erode i would with anticipate that would lead to tension and people saying overnight that benioff said he needs to spend less time with ceos and more time here >> the thing is when you are a founder of something, anything, it is your baby. you know or at least you think nobody will ever love your baby as much as you do.

i think the great frustration and disappointed for founders is they find replacements or people who are partners and they look and say you don't love it as much as i love it. that is the problem. >> not just founders, but great ceos if you look down the line from iger to jack welsh who think they did not make the right choice choice they would never find someone. >> it was never my imagination graphics were supposed to kill that they came up again and now it is him. there! okay you wonder why i stopped >> i get it. >> you wonder why. >> i get it. >> a nice picture it was him >> it looks like my twitter photo. >> he was at the business roundtable he was like an offensive tackle.

he is like a giant >> a big man. >> he's a giant. scared me. >> you have to watch what you say. >> i do. i ran away crush me when we come back, we'll take a look at what is happening with the markets the futures have barely budged this morning if you are looking over the long-term trend, it is not great. serious concerns about what is happening with the futures that played out. the dow futures are flat s&p futures up 2 points. nasdaq up 14 we will talk about this after the break. later, former white house economic adviser jason furman will talk about inflation and the odds of a soft landing for the economy. you are watching "squawk box" and this is cnbc >> announcer: this cnbc program is sponsored by baird. visit bairddifference.com.

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the s&p 500 is coming off the fifth straight negative session. nasdaq has been down the last four sessions. it has been maybe nine sessions or so. the next guest says thesooner the market prices in recession, the better off we'll be. joining us is gabriela santos. this is a really interesting time, gabriela a lot of people are concerned about recession.

a lot of worries about that. it seems everybody is pricing in recession. you are somewhat positive and somewhat negative. let's weiade through this and explain. we have have come down a long w. >> when we do the yearly outlook for the next 10 to 15 years, the starting point today is so much better than where we were 11 months ago rates are higher valuations are back to pre-pandemic levels in the u.s you are talking about the best entry point for bonds and stocks since 2010 in 11 months, we upgraded the annual return expectations by 300 points from the starting point. you are talking about institutional clients and retail clients better able to meet the return needs when you think about the next 12 months, and thinking about the

dials and overweight risk and underweight risk, there is time to be underweight risk we talked about recession, but we don't see that priced in. i think there is a hope of a soft landing we can have a rough start to the year we would still be underweight equities and high yield credit. >> there are people saying maybe we're already in a recession you hear somebody from citi saying it won't happen until next year. >> we can't agree on where we are at the moment. are wite slowing down or pickin up never mind 12 months from now. that is why there is so little macro conviction that you see stocks and currencies and commodities get whacked around week to week it neither confirms or denies.

narrative of recession ultimately, we think we are slowing down, but the market has been resilient we talk about elevated recession odds the dominos falling more middle to the second half of next year and the beginning of the year to actually price in the dominos falling. >> you see us going lower in the next several months? >> especially in the beginning of the year. january and february is a good opportunity to hear from companies and what they saw in the fourth quarter earnings to get more realistic about what is happening with demand and what is happening with cost pressures and get analysts revised down earnings expectations to something reasonable factoring in a mild recession would take you to earnings expectations below 220 for next year we are not there yet the second point is on high yield. how are spreads at 460 basis points normally in a recession, you would see them get to 800 plus.

that process still feeds to play out. >> if the feds stopped immediately, we would have recession next year? >> we expect them to end not immediately. >> what about right now? what is it you see a lot of strength as you see in the economy jobs is it just lagging or do we right now have an economy at this level of interest rates that would not contract for two straight quarters? would we keep chugging along if they didn't do more increases? >> wie already have rates at restrictive levels the fed talks about the lag. we have interest rates today that is not restricting the economy to the extent it could six months or 12 months from now. there is a lag effect coming from higher rates. if you think about the more interest rates sectors >> does it matter what happens

with china or is it all us >> i think for the u.s., most importantly, it is all about what we have been hearing from wall street ceos this week which is about consumers winding down pent-up savings. the inflation having pressure. we are not there yet by the middle of next year, we project we will have wound those down i think what happens in europe and china can matter for the u.s. should it start impacting oil prices and gasoline prices and pressuring inflation that is moving forward the recession timing. >> it is self fulfilling ceo ws will do it fed will do it. >> that's what happens >> if you are a ceo and you suspect things are slowing down, it is the rational thing to do collectively, you all do it, you bring it on yourself >> maybe you didn't need to.

>> this is the same thing when ceos were preparing for inflation times. you better get in and raise prices to keep up. by doing that, you create more inflation. >> do you think what happens with pepsi raises prices and decide to cut? >> it is also the same thing that happens with consumers. they told us not to wear masks in the beginning, they didn't want people buying masks and hoarding it. when you are doing the rational thing for your interests or family's interests or company's interests, collectively, you create massive problems. >> recession does happen when everyone just stops just pauses. you pause on hiring. pause on spending. here we are. i think there is something to do here where especially pulling the trigger on the bond side it is all we hear about. bonds are back we think it is a great time to add to high quality duration fixed income

yields are back down to 3.4 for the 10-year treasury we can't get the perfect yields we want. that shows how much demand there is for a long duration not the time to wait for perfect yields the time to add to it already. >> a lot better than a year ago. maybe not as good as it is going to be at some point over the next 12 months >> especially for fixed income that's an area where we are already very excited about and we haven't been since 2010 >> gabriela, thank you. >> nice to see you coming up, more on "squawk box" this morning. former theranos executive sunny balwani learns how long he will spend if prison. vibry d later, we will talk to ken adover inflation when we come back on "squawk box" here on cnbc.

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former theranos ceo sunny balwani was sentenced to 13 years in prison. prosecutors were seeking a 15--year sentence given balwani's oversight role at the business he was convicted on more counts than elizabeth holmes. maybe that accounts for the longer sentence. 13 hours i would be looking for my shoe laces. coming up, workers taking action with strikes announced by

journalists and airport workers in the u.s we will talk to seiu president mary kay henry next. as we head to break, this is the look at the s&p 500 winners and losers we'll be right back. >> announcer: executive edge is sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we are in positive territory dow futures up 23. so is nasdaq s&p up over 6. tesla will shorten shifts at the shanghai factory and delay new hires. that is according to bloomberg reporting people close to the situation there. the news is adding to indications that demand in china for tesla's electric vehicles is not meeting expectation.

stock is off 6%. hundreds of employees at the new york times began a 24-hour walk-out today the numbers members of the guild said they are fed up with bargaining after the contract expired in march of 2021 negotiations took place on tuesday and wednesday, but they remain far apart on wage increases and other policies the paper has contingency plans to keep operating without disruption. meantime, thousands of swiss port usa workers at hubs including, newark and chicago and boston are prepare to strike this includes janitors and baggage handlers mary kay henry is with us this morning who represents the workers. mary kay, it is good to see you.

i was a little bit on both sides of the recent rail situation i love to hear your comments on that you know, you finally get into a position where you got real bargaining power for whatever reason and suddenly the rules or goal post gets moved this is so important for $2 billion a day. we heard all of the reasons. were you okay when the administration and congress steps in to basically shut that strike down? >> i think the rail companies have an obligation given their record profits to address the issue of sick pay and time off to be able to get to doctor's appointments just like the airport service workers are doing today and what you said about the new york times, you can see workers everywhere across the economy

are fed up with the status quo and want to have companies address unsafe working conditions and pay >> i guess i'm not sure you really weighed in on if you thought was done was appropriate or not i guess my point is we have seen tough days for unions time and again over past couple decades and we have seen membership fall there haven't been a lot of wins and bright spots as i said, for whatever reason, this is a worker -- they've got some, you know, power now. a worker, not an employer economy right now. when it starts going that way, the government steps in. do you wish that had not happened >> well, i think the government demonstrated in this case that collective bargaining was working. they used the emergency provision in the railway labor

act to try to bring the parties together to solve the problem. i actually think this is an incredible moment for unions and working people that are winning across the economy we just had airport service workers and rail workers get us through a two-year pandemic to keep the country running now it is time for major corporations in this country to invest in the essential workers that are trying to keep the economy moving today, black and brown and immigrant service workers in dozens of airports are backing the demands of the three hubs you said were on strike to insist these workers get respected, protected and paid on the job. >> do you feel any sense of frustration when we see an economic report, whether it's on a friday like a jobs report or wages actually rising? oh, no, wages are too hot.

this means this is on the fed radar screen this is going to make the fed harder that will increase demand. when you see that, it is counter to what you would think a country would want >> i don't think the problem is wages are too high i think we are finally in a situation where minimum wage has gone up over the past ten years in key parts of the country. we experienced worker shortages coming out of the pandemic wages got higher because employers wanted to fill those jobs the key question is no matter what the state of the economy is, are people going to earn enough to provide for their families and expect they can have a secure future that's what today's strikes are about in those three hubs and dozens of other airport workers are joining together and rejecting the status quo and say

we have to be paid living wages and paid healthcare and protections on the job >> i guess people point to the labor sector of the economy as being responsible for the most stubborn flinflation. the longer that stays, the longer the fed is in tightening mode and the more likely of a soft landing if the country has a hard landing because of the wage price spiral, is it worth it for the individuals getting the wages? >> i don't think labor is response for inflation i think that major corporations have been increasing prices during the crisis and have driven inflation i think we should be clear about where the problems start so we can solve for it i think we have to back working people that are joining together and try to create good living wage jobs all across the service economy that fuels the nation's

economy. >> do you think corporations should be raising prices at all or do you think they are raising more than they need to to cover input costs? is that what you are saying? are you saying they should not have responded to higher costs that they have >> if the prices were related to costs, that would be one thing many parts of the economy are raising prices to juice profits. i think what we have to examine is that corporations profits are at a 70-year high. that is not true for wages in the country. that why when we think about how to tackle inflation as a nation, which i agree, we should figure out how to do, we have to look at what the source of the problem is and that's why it is so important to support workers who are trying to take matters into their own hands and create living wage jobs in sectors of

the economy where corporations could afford to pay more than minimum wage and provide sick leave and health care for jobs in this nation. >> we want everyone to obviously succeed in this country. that certainly adds to what i would call success thank you, mary kay henry. i appreciate it. when we come back, sticker shock. manhattan rents are defying predictions of the cooldown from the summer record highs. robert frank has that story next. and later, jason furman joins with the latest read on inflation and the fed and much more "squawk box" will be right back. >> announcer: currency check is sponsored by interactive brokers. the propfessionals gateway to th

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welcome back, everybody. u.s. equities at this hour are higher dow up 40. nasdaq up 25 s&p up by 8. exxonmobil and chevron revealing the 2023 spending plan capital spending for 2023 will be closer to the $25 billion range. that follows news from chevron

that it is increasing the 2023 capital spending by more than 25% to $17 billion both companies are spending more money as they increase investment in low carbon fuel projects and look for additional oil and gas deposits as well. chevron up is barely exxon up 1.4%. exxonmobil raised salaries 9%. additional 5% for anybody who got a raise. let's talk real estate manhattan real estate. where are rents -- not where are, but where rents are stubbornly high. robert frank has the sad story for renters in new york. what's going on? >> andrew, it is sad for new york manhattan rents saw another increase in november the median rent up 2% for the month and now up 19% from last

year the average rent in manhattan over $5,200 a month. this creates two problems. one for affordability and the other for fed. rents are a big component of cpi. new york is the largest rental market rising rents in manhattan will put pressure on the cpi which puts pressure on the fed to raise rates. soaring rents are pricing out younger new yorkers who cannot afford it anymore. new leases fell 39% in november. that's the biggest decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020 brokers saying renters are facing rent hikes of 20% or more from the leases. they are simply leaving or downsizing the declines in leases hitting the three-bedroom leases down 44%. the average rent, andrew, on a three-bedroom plus over $11,000

a month. >> wow that's -- >> on average. >> that's the average. what is the median do we know >> the median is closer to $9,$ $9,000 or $9,500 they are all continuing to go up if you look at the supply, the pipeline of available or upcoming apartments, there is little sign we will get easing in inventory any time soon that means the prices are unlikely to drop substantially for at least six months >> robert frank, he tells it like it is when it comes to money, money, money. thank you. the ftc nearing the deal to buy activision when we come back, you can get the best of squawk and on

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welcome back to "squawk box. the ftc nearing a decision of microsoft's purchase of activision what's your handicap here, sir >> well, i'll tell you the market is currently pricing about 35 to 40% odds of this deal closing that's assuming a 60, $65 break price. my guess is that the ftc is going to sue the block

several investors are holding out hope based on the power that microsoft still has in washington. >> there's one piece, does the ftc seek to block it and the secondary question is, if, in fact, the ftc seeks to block it, do they go to court or do they walk away? >> yeah, and i think based on reporting, it seems that microsoft is willing to fight this we saw the op-ed from brad smith in the "wall street journal. he doesn't look like somebody who is going to walk away. the key piece here is what happens to the regulatory reviews with the regulatory reviews in the uk and europe those are out standing and decisions aren't expected there until the end of the first quarter, maybe early second quarter. we could talk about that a little more. but i think consensus right now -- go ahead. >> let's talk about the calendar because there are some deadlines built into this contract,

effectively, that make this whole thing get a little dicey depending on what happens and how quickly either happen or don't happen >> yeah, the calendar is interesting. ftc decision is expected eminently. there's a closed-door meeting at the ftc scheduled for today. we could see a block as early as today -- or a lawsuit to block the deal as early as today then it depends on which route the ftc goes without that lawsuit. they expect the ftc to send the case to their internal court system or administrative law judge instead of sending it to district court and historically, the ftc is seen as having a greater chance of winning in its internal court system than in the federal court system that has changed a little bit under this administration.

former ftc officials may not agree with the philosophies. >> what's the final drop dead -- it's this spring/summer. >> july 2023 and so the alj is a longer process than the federal court system and it can last six to eight months that would push us up right outside that gate if it does take that long there's nuances here the ftc normally can't send things to the alj without getting a preliminary injunction because the europe and uk are still outstanding, they can send it to the alj without an injunction until they finish their reviews. >> what happens if this deal falls apart? what's activision blizzard look like and are there other suitors who would try and come after >> great question. in terms of other suitors, i think microsoft obviously has a big presence in gaming, but

there's a -- there's just a push from this administration and i think regulators across the world to prevent big tech companies from doing big deals and we're certainly seeing that here i think the view for most investors is that activision seems to be trading at fundamental fair values. if the deal were to break, obviously, there could be some tech selling pressure. but based on conversations we're having, it does appear that fundamental investors are waiting on the sidelines to step in should activision trade off -- >> you think 76 bucks right now is fair value for the company. how much of that is the premium -- i mean, given the possibility of this transaction? >> so taking a step back from that question, i think that right now the market is at least based on most -- feedback from most investors the market seems to be mostly pricing in a ftc lawsuit if they sue to block, most people think the stock is down a

few points we're already pricing in some of the regulatory uncertainty and i think based on conversations i'm having, investors feel that including the termination fee that activision would get, investors feel we're trading close to fair value. >> great to see you this morning. we appreciate all of your analysis and perspective we will see what in fact the ftc does or does not do in the coming days. thanks. >> thanks. new data on who americans want to run for president in 2024 and who they don't want let me guess that's straight ahead. later, former white house economic adviser jason fmaurn gives us his read on the economy. coming right back.

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osisko development is a premier gold mining company with a goal of achieving mid-tier gold producer status with the company's advanced-stage projects located in north america, headlined by the cariboo gold project in bc and the tintic project in utah. osisko development good morning, the ftx saga continues. sam bankman-fried facing a market manipulation inquiry. disney+ debuting its new a tier today. is a recession coming in 2024 we're going to try to figure out what's next for rates and the

u.s. economy the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now. ♪ good morning welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour still have 2 1/2 hours to go nasdaq up about 26 points, 27 points and the s&p 500 looking to open about 10 points higher i see steve liesman in the shadows right here the ten-year note, that's your focus, steve he looks at the ten-year we're looking at 3.449 two-year, 4.279. show you where the energy complex sits wti crude standing at $73.38 and

crypto, maybe a sign of risk on or off bitcoin now still under 17,000 we're going to talk a lot more about crypto in the next tour when kevin o'leary is going to be joining us. ether sitting at approximately $1,200 >> frank what are you checking out this >> chevron and exxon mobil sharing their spending plans they both announced plan capital spending for 2023 -- i'm talking about exon announced planned capital spending that follows news from chevron that is increasing its spending to 17 billion. both companies are spending more money as they increase investments in low carbon fuel

projects. we're watching chinese mega cap tech both rallying this morning as investors get bullish on the reopening of the world's second biggest economy you can see stocks here across the board are up las vegas sands up 4%. jd.com and alibaba up 3% as well goldman sachs says that the announcement yesterday is paving the way for the end of china's zero covid policy. salesforce, those shares are down again you can see right now, they're down almost a percent at this moment they're down double digits since november 30th earnings that shows slowing demand reporting from the journal krietding sources saying that benioff thinks he's not spending enough time on salesforce.

i'm going to be down there at that new york city event later today. we're going to bring you the highlights i don't think that marc benioff is really that big is he tall >> it's all relative you're right you're right you're about the same height, i would say, frank. >> i saw him at the dream force event. we're looking eye to eye. >> 6'3", 6'4"? >> 6'4". >> i wish i was 6'4" you know what -- >> work through your feelings. >> i made it to 6 and i still got hair i've got nothing to come player about. it's real human hair. >> that sounds like it's someone else's air >> it actually is real human hair beautiful, too the latest survey showing americans don't want a rematch of biden versus trump in 2024. other polls have said some

similar things, i think, steve. >> maybe i have not seen these particular results. let me walk through them and you tell me if -- the answer is neither of the above that's the conclusion from the cnbc all america economic survey when we asked americans if president biden or former president trump should run again for president and the answers are definitive should they run again? trump, 31% say yes, biden, 19% say yes. 70% say no when you look at it by party, 37% of republicans don't want the former president to run, including -- and that 61% of independents also say he shouldn't run. it's bigger in the democratic party where 57% of democrats don't want the president to run again and 66% of independents. guys, guess which -- we'll get to that in a second. a democratic pollster says the

significance is that neither the former nor sitting president has a large enthusiastic base at the moment, that comes a problem if you're running for president we asked about one specific reason, is age a factor. 73% say not when it comes to trump. just 8% say it's major but it's a bigger deal for biden. 47% say it's a major reason. 28% say it's a minor guess which age group thinks it's the biggest problem for biden? 65 or older. the other one that's big, democrats. more so than republicans think age is an issue for bide. >> no that would indicate it's a younger thing. >> i think the democrats are looking for a change in the demographic of their leadership. biden has other problems his approval rating at 46% now it's 41% economic approval pretty much the same, 40%. now 38%.

take a look at priorities for congress, lowering inflation, reducing the deficit so much in second, border security, third and then you have this step down, aid to ukraine, nationwide abortion protections huge splits in the parties and investigate the biden administration a bigger deal for republicans than democrats. >> you haven't seen that headline again and again and again, most americans don't want a rematch of -- i've seen it again and again. you said it this way and before it's been said this way. >> i think it's been -- >> there's a lot -- >> i think it's been done from the -- these are numbers. >> it's more granular. i could have told you that was going to be what most of the -- and as far as people older knowing what it means to -- to get old, exactly, i watch jeopardy, i know that there are some -- something happens. >> i've seen the trump v. desantis stuff we were a little interested in the politics of it and more the

should they run again issue which i think is really the interesting part about this. and for democrats, democrats want to win. if they -- if the democrats don't want the president to win again are worried about who they should back in terms of -- >> there are republicans who don't want trump to win. my guess is that republicans want biden to run again and the democrats want trump to run again because of the anti vote. >> most people who come on air do not support trump but notice the 37% who want him to run again. >> that's about the number. >> is there that split in there between the leadership and base. >> a lot of the leaders would like to say something, but there's still that residual fear that they don't want -- there's still -- he can still talk to those 37% and he can still say mcconnell needs to be impeached

or whatever crazy -- whatever happens. >> it is worth pointing out, because of the way we ask this question which is different, it doesn't mean they wouldn't -- like this as opposed to that because of the way we asked the question, it doesn't mean that the people wouldn't go and support him. we didn't ask, did you vote for him. if you go to a primary and let's say you have ten competitors and you bring a base of 37%, you would -- you can still win the primary. >> that's what i heard people saying, republican strategists saying, if that's a big field, it gives a big advantage to donald trump again for next time, will you ask them a question, how likely are you to vote, how likely are you to vote if one of these two run i would like to know the motivating factor. how motivating it would be for a democrat if donald trump ran or for a republican if joe biden ran. how much does the i hate them factor -- >> you took the knife to the

achilles heel of all polling ouch here's the deal. when you talk about how our previous poll didn't predict the results, it's all about turnout and motivation i was talking to a republican pollster yesterday and he was saying how difficult it is to gain out the abortion issue. the abortion voter turned on a dime with dobbs. it had been a republican, evangelical voter. all of a sudden it was a liberal female voter protecting abortion rights knowing how motivated that person was to register to vote, come out to vote, same thing, it's voter intensity the nbc poll tries to measure intensity. when the pollsters gets it wrong, it's because they don't get right the intensity of it. you're right, we can say, how motivated are you, it's a great question. >> and i would like to know if this does wind up being a rematch, where is the higher

motivating factor? >> this is what i think is going to happen. if the president stays as healthy as he is right now, he already said -- they toasted him at the macron dinner i don't think trump even with a scatter field is going to get the nomination, but i think he'll stay in some way and play spoiler. >> before we go, that's it for politics for awhile. we just had to do this last question -- >> don't apologize. >> i don't love being there. i prefer doing the economic stuff. but we had one procedural thing. >> do you know how many robinhood traders are left out there for us to talk about -- do you think that's how we're -- >> i'll get you more politics if you want it. >> we need the economic aspect keep on this. >> about the intensity good question, becky, thanks. coming up, a lot more on "squawk" this morning. disney+ begins its ad-supported streaming tier one quarter of current u.s.

subscribers to opt for the lower cost version with ads. we'll talk about what it could mean for investors. take a look at markets right now. nasdaq up, dow up and s&p up we're coming right back. with my hectic life you'd think retirement would be the last thing on my mind. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected. dolly varden silver is advancing their high-grade undeveloped

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now to the latest in the ftx

saga prosecutors are reportedly investigating weather sam b bankman-fried manipulated the market back in may, manipulation that led to their collapse, and then the implosion of the overall firm ftx according to the "new york times," the investigation is in its early stages and it's not clear whether officials have enough to determine wrongdoing separately, three people close to ftx say sam bankman-fried lobbied for a with taylor swift. executives were begging ba bankman-fried to stop spending money on celebrity endorsements. after the swift deal fell apart, there were talks about a deal with singer katy perry as

recently as august today at 8:30 eastern we'll talk to kevin o'leary he's a cnbc contributor and a host on cnbc's money court he's been a paid spokesperson for ftx for more than a year he's going to explain his relationship and investments with the company live on "squawk box. what show was katy perry on? is she on an nbc show -- >> on "the voice"? >> she was on ame"american idoli think. if taylor were going to get 100 for three years, what would you offer katy >> a lot you would offer her -- >> less. but not -- but a lot >> okay. >> you're saying half. >> maybe maybe not. maybe a third. >> it also depends on how desperate you're getting -- it also depends on how desperate

you are, you're trying to have some shiny things to change people from looking -- if you're paying a hundred million dollars for taylor swift, it's because you need to distract people from what's really going on over here. >> that explains the whole -- i mean, we had a climate justice and social something or other -- no cfo but you had a head of climate justice. filed a pair of lawsuits against tiktok alleging that the platform is deceiving consumers. saying tiktok's algorithm design to promote harmful content it follows moves by states including nebraska, south carolina, arkansas, texas, maryland also on the list to ban the use of tiktok. we're going to talk to the governor of maryland about that emergency order today at about

8:10:00 eastern time this morning. when we come back, disney's stock down nearly 40% over the last year. will the lodge of disney+ with ads enable the media giant to attract new subscribers. we'll find out next. ways and means ranking member kevin brady will join us to talk about inflation, the risk of recession next year and the economy. >> announcer: time now for today's aflac trivia question. in 1947, what company created the slogan "a diamond is forever" the answer when cnbc "squawk box" continues a hospital bill for me? mm-hmm. for $1,200? ga-a-a-ap! did you say "gap"? yeah, he did. he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. ga-a-a-ap! uh-uh. aflac! that's why there's aflac. it pays you money to help close that gap. aflac, huh? don't tell me he high stepping.

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>> announcer: now the answer to today's aflac trivia question. in 1947 what company created the slogan, a diamond is forever the answer, de beers. i want to talk about the streaming wars disney launching its ad-supported tier today and the big news, the big release from harry and meghan coming out later today on netflix netflix shares are up 30% in the

last three months. i just want to talk a little tiktok, maybe, rich greenfield is here. let's talk disney first. how big a deal is this and how many folks do you think ultimately -- i don't want to say downgrade, but effectively downgrade their subscription, some of that will get made up for on the other side by advertising, but is that a good thing or not >> look, this is disney realizing they're relatively mature, they've reached most of the customers who are going to pay for disney+ and pushing on price. just like the parks. parks have gone through multiple price increases in the last couple of years, demand is crazy, this, i think, is looking at the streaming service saying they're losing $4 billion over the last 12 months on streaming. they need to get this to profitability. how are they going to do it? they're going to raise what was too low of a price and starting to really push on price and,

look, people are addicted. family content on disney+, it's pretty hard to get rid of. just like that dvd wall that was a baby-sitter on demand. disney+ is a pretty sticky kids service. i think disney can raise price i think some people will stay and not take the price increase and stick with the advertising and that's fine. disney is probably better off if you take the advertising product -- >> that's what i was going to ask. how do you -- what's your analysis of how much the advertising product actually creates in terms of value for disney, disney investors, versus the subversion. >> i think given how advertisers are dying for new inventory, whether that's on netflix or disney+. as consumers watch, especially younger consumers are watching less and less linear tv, the thing you keep hearing from ad buyers all over the world, we need to get to connected tvs we need to reach younger people. that's how you do it

but, andrew, the real question that everyone should be asking today is, not the disney+ ad tier, what is bob iger going to do he's taken the reins, chapek got fired two weeks ago. what is bob iger's plan? are they ticking with narrow disney+, marvel, lucas, pixar are going general entertainment and going after netflix and going after -- combining hulu, whatever they're doing -- >> what's your bet and what do you want him to do >> look, i think disney -- the reality is, disney is amazing. theme parks, consumer products, disney studios, theater movies like the big movies, wakanda forever. it feels like disney is best suited to being more narrow and really owning it, selling hulu, getting out of espn. disney is really, really good at what it does and what you know disney to be do they really need to compete

across all entertainment that was certainly the concept behind the fox transaction it's not clear that's the direction iger is going to go. obviously, they're losing a lot of money, they need to fix that and we haven't heard he's only been back a week or two. i'm not -- this is not a criticism. it's just that the entire world is sort of waiting to see what is iger going to do. >> rich, netflix harry and meghan doc -- >> i think it's irrelevant in the scheme of things it's irrelevant in the scheme of what's going on right now at netflix is probably the largest content hot streak we've seen in years. if you think about what happened with "stranger things" over the summer, dahmer a couple of months ago

"wednesday," biggest show in a few weeks. hit series after hit series. the most important driver of netflix, advertising helps, when the content is working, the stock works. >> you want to weigh in on all the tiktok news, all the states that seem to be planning to try to ban it, at least for devices that are owned by the state, and what that ultimately means, not just for tiktok and tiktok's future, but also, of course, for the other social media sites meta, instagram, elon musk and twitter? >> you mentioned you were going to have government officials on later on this morning. what's interesting is how many government officials use tiktok to talk to their constituents. this has been a huge mouthpiece for how you reach -- especially younger people, but increasingly all people, the tiktok usage is bonkers in terms of just how amazing and -- it's entertainment. tiktok is an entertaining service and it's fun to use.

getting government officials to be -- to no longer use it is one thing. banning it from the united states, that's going to take a real aggressive concerted erffor by the biden administration. i spent a week out in l.a. i'm not sensing that that is imminent a lot of people talk about it. i think meta and folks at snapchat would love it but i don't sense it i truly don't. anything could happen. but so far, we haven't seen that real concerted effort. i do think, like, consumers would go -- consumers would be obviously very upset because this is something they're spending an hour a day on. >> twitter is now a private company. are you long twitter >> i am just sort of sad that, like, this seems like complete chaos, right there's just -- i have such high hopes for what elon can do with it and hopefully it's just early and he's making some early mistakes you know, it is not clear that he is making it a better place

to be from a tweet or tweeter standpoint it's not clear yet that he's done and made this a better service than this was before and he's obviously removed a tremendous amount of the humans that were moderating and in charge of safety so we'll see i'm definitely disappointed to date, andrew this is not what i expected in the early weeks of his control of the company and i just think he's let go of so many people he's forgetting that advertisers, just like they want to be on disney+ and netflix for brand safety reasons, he's forgetting the importance of brand safety as he takes over twitter for sure >> he's been trying to move i think more towards a subscription service we're going to talk about that more in the coming days and weeks. thank you. >> thanks, andrew. still to come -- >> a lot more ads on it, direct to consumer ads. >> seen a few of those kevin brady joins us to talk

inflation, the fed and more. and later, maryland becoming the latest state to ban tiktok on state agency devices we're going to talk about the cybersecurity decision in the next hour. stay tuned, you're watching "squawk box. this is cnbc technologists in india, and customers all on different systems. you need to pull it together. so you call in ibm and red hat to create an open hybrid cloud platform. now data is available anywhere, securely. and your digital transformation is helping find new ways to unlock energy around the world. as an independent financial advisor, and your digital i stand by these promises: i promise to be a careful steward of the things that matter to you most. i promise to bring you advice that fits your values. i promise our relationship will be one of trust and transparency. as a fiduciary,

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republicans are set to control the house in the new year and taxes and the economy are at the top of their agenda but outgoing ways and means leader kevin brady says while americans are going into debt faster than ever, he's concerned that democrats won't compromise on needed provisions to help boost the economy. congressman brady joins us this morning. i want to talk to you about next year, but lame duck is front and center next year, you'll be around for the lame duck. what are we looking at >> yeah, so, obviously, there's the -- a decision on how to fund the government and how high and how long i think really, we've been overspending by $3 trillion. the budget this session. i wouldn't lock in that overspending for another year. secondly, we've got some modest tax, trade and health provisions

they don't cost a lot. but they get a big bang for the buck, especially on the tax side provisions that allow businesses to take full deductions on research and development and expensing, writing off the equipment, technology, really critical in the supply chain crisis and some incentives on investment they don't cost much, they're really important on trade as well similar sort of situation. so we're working to try to find some common ground with the democrats here before we leave it's going a little slower, frankly, than i would hope but we have some time if we can sort of pull this together >> i love our -- i love everything about the way we form governments and the constitution, the way everything works. it's fascinating but you got the two-year, six-year dynamic the two-year dynamic has its own set of issues that come to the fore one of them that's coming right now is whether -- how kevin mccarthy, leader mccarthy is

attempting to wrangle the cats, the votes to be the speaker. something that happens in january. and we're watching these -- i don't know what you call these guys that aren't on board yet. they'll probably eventually be on board it would be in the republicans' best interest, i think, if they want to show anyone that they can governor they don't want to have this last forever they're going to want things, maybe, in the lame duck. are they right now demanding things from leader mccarthy about what happens between now and the new congress are there things that they're not going to agree to that he has to concede to him that are going to mess things up over the next month >> not necessarily i think the short answer here is, i think all the republicans are weighing in here on the lame duck i think kevin mccarthy got a major victory this week on ending the covid vaccine mandate in the military, beginning to

rehire that was, i think, a good example of his leadership and working with the entire conference we've got an agenda. we are eager to get to work on we're going to have to unite to do this. we have the same majority as speaker pelosi she struggled to get the votes to be speaker two years ago. that's just how things are in washington but, you know, he's the right leader i'm confident he's going to be able to pull these votes together we are really eager to move on agenda and the sooner we can pull it together, the better. >> for lack of a better term, is any freedom caucus members, do you see any chance that there is some nuclear option that comes with a government shutdown that leader mccarthy would go along with what would that do and what are the -- what do republicans want to accomplish as being the majority in the house over the next two years what do they -- they can't really do anything in terms of governing. what do they need to show -- is it sort of a buildup to the 2024

election where we got the senate and everything else and president? >> yes so i would probably disagree with there's nothing you can do to govern. you're an immediate check and balance on what we believe is the wrong policies of the biden administration secondly, you share the power of the purse. the regulatory overreach, executive overreaches is now in play in a more positive way. there's a balance there. and thirdly, you got a chance to move your agenda, show the american people what you would do, you know, to make their lives better, to ease inflation, to secure the borders and their neighborhoods from crime those are three important things to do. the second one is one of the most important, the power of the purse is now shared between republicans and democrats. so there will be changes, frankly, in how the administration behaves, and, of course, the oversight is about rooting out the waste, the fraud and the abuse in the government

and finding out if the government is working for you or against you as a taxpayer. those are important powers for republicans. but, you know, our commitment to america is very optimistic, it's very positive. i think it's just what we need we're just eager to get to it. >> we were in dc -- i don't know if you watched that day. every ceo wants the r&d tax to be extended. >> yeah. >> that was like the top thing and i even made some comparisons about what they're able to do when they invest versus -- >> yeah, it's really -- >> the benefit of the write-off. then, again -- >> justice -- >> if i say to the american people watching right now, the ceos want this r&d, does that help our case or does it hurt our case that ceos want to do something? >> i think it helps and from this standpoint -- just had a vote, this very bipartisan issue, joe

these provisions are -- they just had a vote in the senate. i think it was 95 to whatever in support of it because, you know, america being the most innovative nation on the planet, that's our goal. republicans propose doubling the r&d credit permanently to make us more competitive and to do that innovation here in the u.s. it's an example of the three or four key tax provisions in the lame duck that we ought to just find a way, you know, to get past and approved. >> you think that we're going to have a recession next year are you in favor of the -- >> i do. >> and you think the fed needs to have inflation as the number one concern, not a mild recession? >> you know, i think -- obviously inflation is driving so much of this. i think both the white house and the fed don't understand the worker crisis we're in and how that's driving higher prices, persistently for a long time as

well i think congress -- the fed shouldn't go wobbly. they're far from anywhere close on inflation congress ought to -- with the republican majority, ought to focus on how we ease the pain of that recession and clearly there's some things we can do on the supply side i think that would be helpful >> the other thing that -- just about every ceo weighed in on was, they wished the two parties could do something with immigration. and make the point that a lot of times the same talking points that one or the other party says, no, we can't live with that that was their talking point in the previous session there's so much that people agree on, but neither side will -- is willing to concede anything to the other. so we don't get anywhere and that's hurting the economy too probably >> yeah. two thoughts one, i disagree with this narrative that neither party wants to solve this problem. i think that's absolutely wrong. for house republicans, we know

how important this is. secondly, you got to have balance. so we can keep open, fix, and improve the front door of immigration is the right thing to go. people forget, a majority of republicans voted for a bill, did border security, modernized that front door of legal immigration, but created a legal status for dreamers, sort of as a model of how we could tackle immigration reform no democrat voted for it but i think that path for both parties is the direction as long as the border is just wide open, there's no real credibility that we'll be able to secure that and fix the other problems. >> congressman, i think both sides would say that they want to reach some sort of deal on immigration. i think we had carlos gutierrez on yesterday and he said the problem is, both sides are

completely stuck on their side of the argument and neither will agree. it's frustrating because you look at it and you think, all of us realize that it's a huge part of the problem with the labor shortage in this country it's a huge part of the problem with inflation as a result >> yeah, it was a problem before covid. it's a bigger problem today. certainly -- if you ask what's the one thing that will restrict our economic growth in the future, it is workers, and even in texas where we have a lot of people moving in, we have a better workforce in size, we're a million jobs short this morning, we're a million jobs short of where we need to be and that's repeated throughout the country immigration can be, should be a big part of that solution. but we also need incentives to get other workers back and reconnected to their job as well. >> would the president have to get involved for immigration there's a lot of -- >> yeah, i think so. >> once again, there's partisan rhetoric in arizona, they said there's

more important things than visiting the border. which, to my knowledge i don't think he's been down to the border i don't know whether you know that if i were him, the economy is, you know -- seems like it's still going well in terms of labor. i don't know if he would want a photo session down there looking at the border. if you don't get him on board, we're probably not going to go anywhere it's not being fixed so how can you disagree that neither side wants -- you say one side does. >> here's why. one -- two thoughts, one, leadership matters didn't get much attention, but it did here. and secondly, look, if you break this border issue down, securing that border is really critical to make sure we're not repeating the mistakes five years down the road but, look, there's bipartisan support on high-skilled workers,

low-skilled workers, the big challenge of those who are already here there's a balance there of security and reforms that will work >> okay. all right. congressman, thanks. appreciate it. happy holidays merry christmas. too early to say that? we wait until the teens for that >> maybe next week >> maybe next week >> good to see you all. a lot more on "squawk. a big fed meeting looming for the markets. we're going to hear from jason furman he's got a lot of provocative views about what's happening in the economy and inflation. take a look at futures ahead of the open on wall seetrt. dow up about 85 points we're coming right back.

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still to come, maryland is banning the use of tiktok and certain china based platforms in the state's executive branch it's the latest state to address cybersecurity risks that are present beside i the app we're going to speak to larry hogan about that move. at 8:30, we'll talk to kevin o'leary. he's a cnbc contributor and the host of "money court". he's been a paid spokesman for ftx for more than a year

he's going to explain his relationship with that company and tells what you say he knows right now. author and economist judy shelton will join us to talk inflation, the fed and much more "squawk box" will be right back.

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save hundreds a year over t-mobile, at&t and verizon. talk to our switch squad at your local xfinity store today. new this morning, bank of america out with its latest read on consumer spending the bank says that household savings and checking balances remain well above the prepandemic levels across every

income level spending was up by 1.7% in november versus a year ago but it slowed from the month before services were particularly strong as we've seen and bank of america said retail spending started slowly in november but then it picked up by the end of the month. it saw an increased use of buy now, pay later services. the fed is set to raise rates next week ain the fight against inflation. our next guest says he expects a 50 basis point hike. joining us now is jason furman he's now an economics preview at harvard's kennedy school of government before we get to what the fed is going to do, i want to back it up a little bit. i've been thinking about inflation yesterday and today. everybody is blaming everybody else for it. you can say it's because of wages going up, it's now really embedded into the economy and it's going to be hard to get rid of we had a labor leader on earlier this morning who said it's big

corporation's fault because they keep raising prices. they say it's washington now we spent trillions of dollars in covid, and the fed left rates low for a long period of time. what else did we think was going to happen? >> i certainly agree with would happen. >> i is a agree with that diagnosis. you try to stel individual stories around inflation but it is upward price pressure on everything you see it on prices, you see it on wages and when it comes to the private economy by the way, it is not a morality play. they will raise prices if businesses want to hire workers, they will increase their wages. that is just the way the economy functions and then you have to ask why is it doing that ultimately it is government and ultimately the fed's responsibility. >> so it is too much demand for too little supply. the other question people keep asks is, is it different this time than it was in the 1970s,

because we have a shortage of labor, we don't have the right immigration policies and problems with the supply chain can it be fixed this time with the feds tools >> it is always a little bit different, but it is pretty dangerous to go out there and say, you know, we've seen something happen six times before in a certain way, for example, you can't bring inflation down without unemployment up. you can't see job openings and quits come down without unemployment going up. it would never, ever seen that before but we're about to see it this time. i do think anybody is possible i agree a soft landing is possible but i don't think it is the most probable outcome norfor next ye. and there is only so far your excuses take you a year and a half ago the economy was scrambled by the pandemic and now the labor market as chair powell said, it is where it is you know, maybe it is the fault of lack of immigration, we're not going to get a lot of migrants in the next year.

i wish we would, but we're not going to so they have to go to war with the economy that they have not the economy they wish to have >> so you think the fed is only going to raise by 50 basis points but you think it is a hawkish 50 basis points because of what they're going to say around it? >> exactly i mean, looking at they did 75 there july and that was a dovish 75 the market experienced relief up until jay powell dashed it at jackson hole we've seen a big easing of financial conditions some of in that is warranted, l the productivity numbers were optimistic in terms of labor cost growth being lower and some of the other data is pessimistic. the larger upward divisions for wage growth were an aha-moment that made me much more worried so i think the fed is worried

about how easing financial conditions have gotten, there has been a 50 basis point easing since october. and i don't think that that they're going to want to see more of that so do 50 at this meeting and leave on the table a string of 50s after this if that is necessary. >> and i guess the big he question is what is the terminal rate is 5% the number, is it higher than that. >> if i had to do my best guess i would say 5 or 5.25. but i think a number over 6 is completely conceivable if we're seeing inflation in the fours next year, we'll keep going. maybe it is 25 basis points a meeting and that will take them above six. that is not my best guest but the markets need to be prepared but it may not be once is enough we might have a bit of a

recession and we have inflation come down but it comes down to something like 3.5 and then the fed needs to do another tightening cycle to get that inflation down further >> jason, what if they stop right here and -- i'm just wondering whether we would have the economy -- inflation would question a problem, but do you think if they stopped right here we would not even a soft landing with the economy, would the economy be able to deal with what has been historic rises in rates and how long it took and the size of them do you think this economy would just keep chug ago long the way it is right now if we didn't go another -- or are there some effects that we haven't seen yet that are going to happen in the next two or three months. >> there is some contraction built into the system even if the fed stops. consumers are spending at a very high level but their savings are

dwindling. their income is not up as much as their spending is the whole housing system, i think that is being crushed right now. now, if the fed announced in december it was doing zero basis points or 50 and stopping after that that would be a big relief that might prop up the housing sector not sure how much that would prop up the consumer sector. >> i want to ask you about the strong dollar because i hearing privately there is a deep concern what the strong dollar may be doing to emerging markets, but whether you could get into a spiral, what they call a doom loop, if you will, and what that ultimately means >> i am -- a lot of things i'm concerned about, the strong dollar is low on my list it is on the miss will you it is low on the list. first of all, it is strengthened

less against emerging markets than advanced economies and it is heatero genius and tells you you have countries like brazil and mexico that have seen currency strength against the dollar but i think there will be some of the smaller worst managed emerging markets as opposed to a general shock. >> jason, we have raised quickly and more than we have historically it is just maybe that is why people are a little bit disillusioned, because the fed seems all too happy at 2% or whatever we were, almost 0%, and i know they thought inflation would be transitory and everything has changed in terms of inflation but it is strange that we have increases but it is

still not enough but they were perfectly happy to think the economy was great. we had low rates and businesses could expand money was cheap. stock market was going up. suddenly it just defined religion so quickly and so significantly, i think that is why people raise an eyebrow and think why should we trust the judgment here. >> look, i think they messed up last year. i think they're roughly in the right place this year. i think their probably going to need to do a bit more than they think but they'll tell us what they think next week and yeah, rates have gone up really quickly they're not that hot we're talking about a feds fund rate of 3.75. >> they were very low. why didn't they notice that. they were very low then. it should have occurred to someone. anyway. >> but we are where we are now and we want to get back to that happy place and the way to get back to the happy place we were is to -- >> we want to thank you. we have a big hour ahead we'll see you in just a little

bit. larry hogan will tk ouhialabt s state's left esteban on tiktok and then judy shelton and a lot more, a big hour ahead lily! welcome to our third bark-ery. oh, i can tell business is going through the “woof”. but seriously we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you

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good morning 90 minutes to the opening bell on wall street futures pointing higher. we haven't seen that much green lately the s&p 500 on its longer daily losing streak in about two months and is the clock ticking on tiktok in america? states take a hard look at the popular video sharing app. coming up, we're going to be speaking with maryland governor larry hogan, slaxmming the braks on state employees using tiktok. and a interview as the investing world tries to understand what went wrong at ftx. kevin o'leary was a pead ambassador for the brand and cnbc contributor and he will join us it and break it all down and get under the hood the final hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪

good morning and welcome back to "squawk box. here on cnbc that is something you don't see every day. 100 points up on the dow. we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm with becky quick and andrew ross sorkin. we have seen a slow melt up. and earlier we had some red. the dow managed to gain out a gain yesterday, 1 percentage points >> and the other average i don't think is joined in that .1 >> it was like a week and a half retrenchment after a good move where some averages were above the 200 day moving average, the high end at the recent trading range which brought the averages

back into bull market territory but it doesn't feel like that. treasury yields have been quiet really we've got the 10-year now below 3.5. partl it is 3.5 and the two-year too many numbers to do thein invest -- to do the inversion, it is still inverted but there is still some technical factors there on how much the fed owns of different duration interest rate instruments. and then cryptocurrency, bitcoin is recently been weak and now below 17,000 at 16,823 and 17 looks like it was trying to hold but at this point below that. >> let's get caught up on some of the other stories investors are talking about today. first up we're watching shares

of tesla they will shorten shifts in shanghai and that is according to a bloomberg report closest to the information. the demand for tesla electric vehicles isn't meeting expectations and the stock off about by 1.8%. chevron is boosting the capital spending budget for the next year by more than 25% to $17 billion. chevron said that number includes about $2 billion for renewable projects and fuels to reduce carbon emissions. $17 billion might sound like a lot but if you had to give it some context they did spend $42 billion on projects in 2013. when we ask the ceo about this, mike worth, they said they've got the same results from less money than they used to spend. also exxon just this morning announcing that plans capital spending for 2023 will be close to the top end of its previously projected 20 to $25 billion range. the white house recently has been pressuring oil companies to

invest more in domestic production, they would like to see that so you get additional supplies so hopefully prices come down. aaa said a gallon of gas is cheaper than at this time last year $3.33 versus $3.44 and although stocks are higher, as crude oil has moved higher, we're down from where we had been a week ago. and google maps and waze are ways to get directions and both are owned by google and they are emerging both teams in an effort to consolidate processes you better not google-ize my waze the ceo will leave the company after a transition period and they give you directions there very different ways. that is why people have prefe preference as to which one is better, depending on how you

look at directions and you drive. >> i go back and forth i do now like waze. >> waze is way better. >> it was a default setting. i was like, what the holland tunnel doesn't exist why is that not coming up. why is it taking me to the gw you know why it didn't care about how much gas i was going to use or -- there is a setting. >> that is the default. >> that was on mine. it was the default on mine >> waze is so much better. >> you could imagine if google decided i could take an extra hour but you'll use less gas speaking of the holland tunnel, they put that in quickly they're fast let's get to frank holland he joins us with a look at this morning's top stock movers you don't know whether it is -- no, it probably is no relation. >> no. no relation.

by the way, joe, don't ruin the magic of tv. everybody thought you ad libbed that transition. don't tell them it is in the prompter salesforce down and you could see shares down almost a percent. the software giant on a double-digit slide, benioff said the business is shifting and the ceo plans to step down since then the ceo of slack and bab low has said they are leaving. and seen ow is up almost 17% and juniper networks moving high and all three big outperformers in fourth quarter up more than 20%. and chinese casino stocks as investors get bullish on a full

reopening of the chinese testing and quarantining requirements and jd and alibaba up. and to candy makers. moving in opposite directions after a ubs upgrade for hershey despite headwinds, mondelez down but raised by a dollar and hershey shares up a percent right now. andrew, back over to you. >> thank you, sir. an interview you don't want to miss kevin o'leary is going to join us live. we're going to talk about his relationship with the collapse crypto exchange ftx as a paid spokesperson and his own investments in sam bankman fried. >> and we'll be joined by larry hogan who is banning the app over privacy concerns. and a remind you could watch us live always, listen to us using the cnbc app

you could do it right now. ua, 'runed, you're watching sqwkwee live at the nasdaq market site in times square.

we have some news just

breaking, nbc news has learned that the wnba player brittney griner has been released she had cannabis oil she was convicted in august and sentenced to nine years in prison it was part of a prisoner swab for russian arms dealer victor bout who was 11 year news a 25-year sentence this ends what has been quite the saga over the past several months this is a one for one swap, if you will there had been an effort earlier to try to get paul whelan who was imprisoned in russia out as well. >> that doesn't seem to be the case in this instance. >> all with the back drop of ukraine, too very difficult time to have any negotiations or even talks with russia would you think but they're always going on through channels and this one finally paying off.

seems it appeared it was approved by president biden and we'll talk more about it in just a little bit. meantime, a mid a long running probe into tiktok, u.s. states have started to take action we'll get straight over to kayla who joins us with more on that good morning. >> reporter: good morning, as tiktok is working to alleviate national concerns at the federal levels, states are taking matters in their own hands five states, texas, maryland, south dakota, south carolina and nebraska, are banning tiktok from being used on state n networks and indiana filed two lawsuits alleging it poses clear and present dangers to data and to children. it's a federal review of tiktok's u.s. operations remained ongoing the council on foreign investigate began investigating operations in late 2019. a year later oracle and walmart

struck a deal for a stake in the app and storage of the u.s. data the biden administration picked up the review from its predecessor in early 2021 and was said to be nearing a deal in recent weeks with lawmakers suggesting a contract was imminent and tiktok ceo telling a us the fix is challenging and that is being slow walked amid concerns so i asked when tiktok would receive answers on its operations considering it is been three years after this review began >> i'm just not going to comment on ongoing review that they are doing. and as you know, the review is ongoing to address the concerns posed by the app >> treasury for its part also declined to comment but tiktok telling cnbc it believes it is still on a path to a solution but there is no deadline to completion of that review. so certainly it could go on for quite sometime and andrew, i just want to

mention very quickly, before we close this out, that we just got an update to president biden's schedule for today le be speaking at 8:30 this morning in the wake of news of the release of brittney griner from the penal colony in russia. back to you. >> thank you for that report. right now we're going to talk with a leader of the one states clamping down on tiktok larry hogan joins us what hogan's office called certain chinese and russian influence products and platforms and that does include tiktok and governor, thank you for being here the request he is why now? >> well you know, we were recommended that we have faced grave potential threats of cyber espionage and the fbi director has been putting out warnings, all of the federal agencies have been talking with all of the states about the threats and yet the federal government has been refusing to take any actions at all and we felt we needed to

take these actions and other states have made the same decision >> we just heard from kayla about the delays that negotiations have run into what kind of deal would you support and what would you like to see >> well i think they need to really make some decisions the federal government could take the same exact action that many of the states have taken at least to protect the federal system so we already know it is a fact that hackers associated with the chinese government were able to break into federal and state systems during the covid problem where they were tapping into our unemployment systems and hundreds of million dollars of dollars of fraud was taking place. and this is one or two state employees that could potentially just be on tiktok on their state desktops or laptops and they could infiltrate sensitive information throughout the entire system. >> there has been talk of a national ban consumers don't seem to take

this very carefully -- take it in stride. you see huge use among younger americans. would you support a national ban? >> well i know that they've been talking about this in congress for quite sometime the executive branch has been taking their time with this investigation that has gone on for three years and congress is doing a lot of talking i'm not sure what the final solution ought to be but i do know this shouldn't be a republican or democrat issue our cybersecurity is the most important problem we have right now. we have serious threats from both china and russia and we have to make sure we make some progress. >> and i'm a little surprised it is only republican governors that have taken these actions. it is something that the current fbi director has warned about very recently. again, why is this becoming a po political issue. >> i don't think it should be a political issue. but we're in the cyber

capital of the usa and we're having discussions and meetings with all of the federal agencies and they're very concerned. it is just, i think, they've been hesitant to actually take act and some of the states decided that in order to protect our systems and the integrity of our information, that we have to take the actions it is similar to what happened during covid when basically we saw the federal government putting out confusing and conflicting or delayed information and decisions and they left it up to the governors. we had to act. >> why are they reluctant? i don't understand it. if they think this is a threat that is a cybersecurity threat, why won't they do anything >> well that is a great question that i -- i wish i knew the answer to. but i know that our leaders of our cyber command here in maryland along with other states were in discussions with the federal leaderswhich is why we took the action. because they're all very, very concerned. i can't tell what you is going on inside of the biden white house but think we need maybe

less talk and more action. >> you're preventing it from any devices at the executive level but what happens if somebody using one of your executive devices, maybe they go home and their kids have it and they share a network with their kids, does that still leave you vulnerable >> yeah, i'm not sure. that is a great question for our experts to talk about. but right now the matter really deals with the state system, state computers and i think on their private devices it is not impacting them and i don't think they could break into or get sensitive information but they were concerned about our state devices. >> governor, you've made, while we have you here, good to see you, governor. >> yeah, good to see you. >> things swirl around about your intentions after january 18th, when you no longer are governor and you've been outspoken about republicans are tired of losing three straight -- i guess you could say three elections, if you want to consider the senate or

whatever it is >> yeah. >> so it could be you and you've left the door open, maybe you announce you've seen the conjecture about others maybe desantis. and the more entrants there are in the gop field, the more likely that it splits it up so that president trump, former president trump could be more likely to maybe be the nominee in 2024. does that factor into your thinking at all, and do you think that there is any chance he said, you know what, i'm just going to decide on who i think should lead the party and i'm going to tell my base to go with them do you ever see that happening is that a possibility? >> well, i don't see much chance of that happening. but i can't really put myself into the mind of donald trump and how he will plmake his

decisions. for me, i am trying to finish out strong as governor of maryland i still have a few more weeks left on the day job. and i said sometime next year we would sit down and try to make a decision about how i could best serve in the future or what role i could play about getting our party back on track or our country back on track. but you're right, it is the worst time for gop, we lost the white house and the senate and we should have had a huge red wave, but we barely got the house back and we didn't win the senate we didn't pick up some governor's races that we should have and i'm just tired of losing and i think there are ways to -- i've been successful in the blue estate in america and winning over stwing voters and that is what the party hadn't been doing. we've been turning off wide swaths of voters. >> i guess what i'm getting to, should you and other hopefuls talk about whether you should

coalesce around a single person before -- before the field gets too scattered which would just usher in perhaps another biden/trump rematch? >> well it is a great question we do talk most of us are friends and we see each other i was just on the same stage with mike pence and mike pompeo and spoked to both of them and chris christie is agood friend of mine and i talked to acea hutchinson we're trying to figure out the best path forward. there are a lot of us that think it is a mistake to nominee donald trump as our nominee. but he still does have a sizable base almost 30% of the likely primary voters that as president trump once said he could go out and shoot somebody on fifth avenue and they would still vote for him. but i think that is continuing to diminish and we're still two years from the election. we just finished the 2022 election. >> and my son said, you did vote for ronald reagan.

what year? in the last election >> yeah. in the last election, i voted for him in all of his elections, actually so. so i voted for ronald reagan multiple times i thought the party needs to get back to ronald reagan's bigger tent where we could appeal to people in america. >> we ask every one of the ceo's on what they're seeing in terms of the economy i don't know if you get your tax receipts as frequently as doug mcmillan gets the sales receipts from walmart which is probably hourly but what could you tell us about what you do see in the tax receipts >> well, our revenues are way up and our economy is booming we took our economy, before i became governor our economy was 49th and we took it to sixth and i took a $5.1 billion deficit and turned it into a $5.7 billion surplus we cut taxes eight years in a row by $4.7 billion.

so i think our economy is doing better than most places. >> no recession on the horizon >> i am concerned about a recession on the horizon which i'm glad we have that big surplus now that we're leaving but consumers are hurting. energy prices and the cost of living is really a problem and biden administration is making all of the wrong moves to try to address those issues >> governors are going to be governors. governor, thank you very much. governor hogan, we appreciate it. >> thank you for having me. >> thank you coming up, a can't-miss interview with shark tank investor and cnbc contributor and host kevin o'leary, on another show we have a lot of questions for him as the crypto world sifts through sam bankman fried. don't go anywhere. "squawk box" will be right back. with steroid-free cibinqo.

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all right, in just a moment we have breaking jobless claims ta ay tuned "squawk box" will be right back with those numbers hey mom, can i go play video games? sure, after homework. thankfully, voya provides comprehensive solutions and shows me how to get the most out of my workplace benefits. what's the wifi password again? here you go. cool. thanks. no problem. voya helps me feel like i've got it all under control. because i do. oh she is good. voya. well planned. well invested. well protected.

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bike all right, welcome back to "squawk box. we're just a few seconds away from new initial jobless claims and market picking up some steam through the course of the morning. dow futures up by over 105 points and s&p up by 17 and the nasdaq right now up about 53 so we have someimprovement ove the last hour and half or so steve liesman is standing by with the numbers on that take it away. >> close to 230, that is right in line with the expectations. a slight revision last week, 226. i'm interesting four week average also up to 230 now it is a little elevated by the input is not np an issue it is the claims they rose to 1.67 million for the prior week of november 26th from 1.609. so that is a source by the way

of the softness that people are talking about in the labor market becky, you have this continuing claims going up. i'll tell you what the prior low was. i have it the week of the 17th it was 1.3 so a little bit more than 300,000 more people who are continuing claims. and this may reflect the softness of the some layoffs we've seen in the market the question becomes with the tightness still believed to be in the jobless market, are these people absorbed over time. you don't lose a job and get one right away but the question becomes when we want to engage the tightness of the market, how long they remain on getting those jobless claims and do they show up during the survey week as unemployment. something we have to monitor a little bit of softness in the market that i think the fed wants to see with the big number yesterday, unit labor costs going down and that number was responsible for yields declining

back to you guys. >> steve, thank you. let's get over to rick santoli with more on this. rick, we've been watching the market reaction and we've seen improvement in the futures at least and part of it is questions about what is happening with the continuing claims and the jobs market and when all of the lawoyoffs work their way into the numbers. >> and you've expressed the issue with layoffs on many occasions, becky, that when we look at technology, when we look at the areas being effected, it is not necessarily going to have enough leverage to do enough damage, i know this sounds crazy, to the jobs market to make the feds happy. with 1.7 million on continuing claims that, the issue initial claims do seem more well behaved but the ongoing continuing claims ticking up will make the fed happy. doesn't make me happy or anybody who looks at policies and disagrees with the notion that you have to kneecap the economy to make it better in the long

run, counter intuitive to logic, on the interest rate side, to think we're doing this much work under 3.5% and a ten-year note at a time when you have past leaders of the treasury have all of the smart people saying we're going to have to get up to 5.5 or 6% for the termibnal rate and that is key, becky, back to you. >> rick, thanks very much. meantime, we're turning our attention to ftx the house financial services committee planning to holding a hearing next tuesday into the collapse of sam bankman fried's empire maxine waters tweeting that a subpoena for bankman-fried is still on the table and federal prosecutors looking floor whether he manipulated the market for luna this year and kate roon yoi now reporting that

he was pushing for a $100 million endorsement deal with taylor swift, even as crypto prices were selling off in the spring. kevin o'leary took a stake if ftx and he was compensated in crypto kevin joins us live and a shark tank investor. good morning to you. >> thank you very much. >> so i want you to just sort of walk us through all of this. because there is a lot of questions about what happened. i know that you've lost money in the prose of all of this. >> that is an understatement. >> and i want to understand how the investment and this ambassadorship happened at the time that it happened, you did disclo disclose it but i want how you went from calling crypto garbage to deciding that this was something that you were going to stand behind >> yes, i recall that conversation calling it garbage right here on this show in 2017.

that was a time when a new york hotel was being tokenized here and was looking at that and the regulator let me know they were not happy with that idea and that is when i step -- i std away from this because the regulatory environment was not good and then i saw ethereum and then i said the world is changing and i have to been an investor i'm an investor in the largest regulated ex change in canada called wonderfy and we're regulated by the osc, i have my accounts up there. but i felt that getting involved when i was approached with sam bankman-fried that i could get an inside seat on what was cons considered then, i have to tell you, the institutional interest

on ftx on the u.s. equity was unbelievable the amount of people approaching me and said how do i get a piece of this deal i said i'm a paid spokesperson, not a single dollar i lost is anybody else except mine and that is important for me because that is an issue. >> how much were you paid. >> total deal was just under $15 million all in including a bunch of agents and that i had to pay because i needed sag after release to do commercials for it when did that i put about $9.7 million at crypto it is all lost because my account got scraped, all of the data and the coins and everything and then i lost the money i invested in equity as well those are zeros too. it was not a good investment i don't make great investments all of the time. luckily i make more good ones than bad ones and that is was a bad one. >> when you made this arrange.

back in august 10th, 2021. you said the following you said to find crypto that met my own rigorous standards of compliance, i entered into this relationship with ftx. it has some of the best crypto ex change offerings i've seen on the market even as a spokesperson and ambassador for this company, what kind of diligence did you do around this issue of compliance given where we sit today. >> i know all of the institutional investors in this deal we all look like idiots. let's put that on the table. we relied on each other's due diligence and another investment theme that i felt drove a lot of interest in ftx, sam bankman-fried is an american his parents are american compliance lawyers there were no other american large exchanged to invest in,

cryptocurrency as an infrastructure play. we said who is coming to this deal we know it was iger -- >> this sounds like group think. did you know there was no cfo? >> look, at the end of the day, to say that there was no cfo is also a bit of a falsehood. this was a fnascent industry without traditional names. that is just way it was. in retrospect, yes, it is a mistake. however, i feel obliged at this point to go to the end of this particularly -- >> what does that mean >> it means that i need to find where the money went i'm going to start with my own journey with my own account. sam bankman-fried reached out to me last zsaturday and i said i' just one ooinvestor and my accon has a zero in it and there are

no accounting records. where did the money go and to the extent you could help me, tell me, point me in the direction because i will on behalf of the other shareholder go find where this money is. the next day we talked for over an hour and he walked me through his scenario and i learned a lot. now i don't -- >> what did you learn? >> sorry i learned what was the large draw down of your capital. where did the cash go? one of the biggest uses of cash was to buy back his shares from binance, which owns 20% of his exchange and the reason he had to do that according to him was this every time they applied for a license, they got jammed up with the ownership is opaque and that cost him a lot to buy back. a couple of billion dollars. >> do you think he was taking customer funds to do that. >> did he take that planmoney fm customers to get it. >> and the only way to answer that question and i told him and' greed, you start this journey with me and wherever the

chips fall, that is on you because, you know, we're talking about this i'm going to pursue it i agreed last night when pat toomey called me to sit on that committee next week. i will be a witness there. >> you plan to testify >> i have agreed to testify. he called me last night around 8:00 a greed to testify i spent a lot of my time on the hill. >> maybe i wasn't listening closely enough so the money that you lost was -- was it all just the money that you were compensated for being a spokesperson for ftx that -- the 9.7. that was money they gave you and then did you lose -- did you lose any money of your own before you were -- before you were compensated >> listen, at the end of the day i look at conversation as a source of income. >> are you net down from your own net worth or did you get the 15 million and you lost 9 of the $15 million. >> i paid millions in taxes and

i hope i could recoup those. this is not a great experience. >> losing $15 million that he gave you to be the spokesperson is different than a lot of people who put money. >> back to the compliance issue and the reason i'm asking is i think a lot of people have looked to you over the years as somebody who is a successful investor and they follow you that is the point of why they -- >> yes. >> so they're looking at this and saying what kind of compliance did this guy do and just to ask around and seeing who else was investing is not compliance unto itself. >> well we did compliance. and the way we did it, let's look at the platform and see if it could link to our platforms andp i also issue securities through other investments. >> did you ask questions, for example, the board, a piece of it, the cfo, all of those would be compliance red flags. >> did i do enough due diligence? no and did i rely in the concept of group think.

yes, we all did that. >> but did you ask about the relationship between alameda and ftx? >> at that time, at that time alameda was just another account in ftx okay >> not just another account, at some point it was 50% of the business on ftx. >> and this is where i call you up and say dhun that if you have no records and all of the allegations and all of the claims and the sam bankman fried took money out and in, nobody knows because there is no data that data as i learned is stitting on a server backed up on aws right now all roads lead to john ray it seems, sam said he could could flip the switch. i need that data i can't go get the money unless i have the data where it went. >> here is what i don't understand you're right, everybody who we thought were savvy investors would say we should have known i listen to the interview that andrew did with him and i thought that guy is a crook and

a liar and you listened to it and said you would invest money with him again if it turns out there is nothing criminally wrong here. and what did you hear that i didn't hear? >> the context of that i've been known for decades to invest in catastrophic outcomes, bad ones because they learn a lot from their out comes. >> everything that he said, oh, i just didn't realize, you didn't realize there was an $8 billion hole, you didn't realize there was compliances were being swapped over there and it is not his fault. that is like that guy is bad news it was not just bad luck >> you don't know because you have no data let's do the forensic audit and find out what happened i so everybody that follows me as you said, i owe them that information and i feel compelled to go get it and i'm lucky i have resources to do it. >> the ftt token, which was one of the underlying -- >> i owned it.

>> it was collateral used in part for this entire -- >> it is not unusual to have a token. look at binance. they have one too. >> and you say you own it. >> i don't know where it is. but i own it it was swept out of my account. >> did you have to buy it. there was a period of time as things got more dicey for the firm over the summer, that he was pushing people to either buy it and hold it, some people look at the acquisition of blockfy as a way to defensively protect against that valuation of ftt going down because of their stake in it. do you think there was manipulation in that regard. >> i don't think so. because i have a rule in our shop, i don't own more than 5% in any one position. so i said i'm going to buy a series tokens and positions. i own about 32 of them and some were ftt and some were locked up and bitcoin and ethereum and i

want to make a point, this doesn't change the potential for what crypto could be this is no different than enron or maybe lehman or bear stearns. you have to pursue it. and enron goes to zero if sam bankman fried did anything wrong, we're going to find out. >> what do you think >> you know, i don't know. and i'm going to -- i'm going to follow the path and be part of the process. i also should disclose that i applied for the credit committee just before midnight last night. there are only seven members on it there is thousands of people that want to be on the credit committee because i think i have a unique view from the inside out and i think i could be helpful there as a fiduciary i'm going to drive the process if i can. >> could i just ask about the valuations of those tokens because i'm still trying to piece this together but based on

what anthony scaramucci told us, it sounds like bankman-frooid w was trying to say the token is worth that. >> and if that is factual, you'll find it in an audit. >> were the tokens given to you or -- >> they were a fraction. i insist anything is less than 5%. >> but did they give them to you or was it -- how did they value them >> the market trading price was. >> but the market trading price was based on the last price that he gave to scaramucci. >> that is not unusual. >> that is what worries me if people are making up these marks based on total b.s., saying i'll use to to buy my token apt price i said. >> fair enough and so let's think about this for a second if 24 months, in 36 months from now, in that very question, there are three batches of data, there are the wires coming into

alameda which are all auditble, whether it was a swift code or a fed wire that is one. there are the transactions inside of alameda, call it a hedge fund they're all audible when we get the data there are transactions in all of the accounts of ftx. there are the transactions of crypto leaving ftx which are on the blockchain every single transaction here could be audited in addition, i would argue that this is going to be sunshine finally for blockchain by the time this story is over, it will be blockchain that figured out what happened. and we will be using this as a authenticating vehicle going forward. so i'm not worries about is sam bankman-fried going to jail or not. i have no idea but i'll tell you, the regulators will rip into this like no other deal ever. >> but you're testifying next week how concerned are you about your own liability and the reason i ask that -- >> fair enough. >> -- is that you're out theres a spokesperson there are civil cases brought

against the likes of tom brady and larry david and all sorts of other. >> i'm named in all of those we're all paid spokesperson. we're all named in those suits the only saving element for me was i never took anyone else's money to put it into ftx all of this is mine. and, look, i look like everybody else, we all have egg on our face but i don't have the backward pressure of liability from lp's. when you have people come on the set and scream that sam bankman-fried should be in jail, i bet think a ton of other people's money in this deal. i don't. i'm more in the -- >> i have your own money in this deal that is enough, isn't it. >> it is the 15 million of funny money that you got -- >> what do you tell people that may not be your lp's but your followers if you will. >> i'm going to commit to finding out what will happen what else could i do that is why i'm testifying, i'm

going to get to the bottom of this the chip will fall where they may and at the end of the day i'm an advocate for this sector. in ten years if we're still sitting around here, crypto, blockchain will be the 12th sector of the s&p. there is too much promise for this technology. that is going to happen. along the way, we're going to scrape the idiot management out of this. because it is an nascent industry i would argue we're better off today. so many companies that have gone bank that have weak management and they're not coming back. >> do you think sam has told you the truth? >> i don't know. i told him, sam, i need the data and i'll find out if you told me the truth. if you haven't told me the truth -- >> doesn't he seems squirmy. >> i think he believes what he's saying >> what does that mean >> i think that he believes what he's saying. well let me ask all of you a

question. >> but i honestly don't know, do you believe someone in this country is innocent until proven guilty >> in the face of the court, but nots in face of public opinion and i have a real reason to think that -- if it were me, i'm telling you, my spidey senses is going off. because i don't think he answers i think he tiptoes and tap dances around it i think there's a lot of things he could have done to explain, where's the $8 billion what happened? >> i can't believe would say to me, you are backing sam bankman-fried, when all i say is, in this country, we assume innocence until otherwise. until you're proven guilty are you telling me you're not doing that >> in this case, i've made my decision i'm not the court. but i've made my decision. >> you've made your decision with the basis of no information. >> he's talked a lot >> i mean, i know that's the -- i know it's true, but there are times when you might have a pretty good idea about whether someone -- >> joe, that's a tough analogy >> i'm not making it an analogy.

i'm saying there are times in the past where we know -- if you're a defense attorney that represents someone that you know is guilty, you got to say, yeah, well, they're innocent, but you may know they're guilty. you may know they're guilty. if you watch someone kill someone, yeah, they're innocent until proven guilty. >> there's only a murder of my money in this case, okay >> it's murder of ftx's money, in my view >> everybody's look, joe, if you -- >> it was ftx's money that you got. i don't think he should be singing the blues right now at all. >> oh, yes, i'm singing the blues. >> because your $15 million didn't pan out that's a lot of money to be a paid spokesperson. it's a lot of money. you didn't have to do much for that that's found money, kevin. >> that's a different discussion you know, you can make that decision on your own, but i'm going to this point -- >> it's found money. >> if you want to say he's guilty before he's tried, i don't understand that. >> i have every right to make a decision >> that's the problem. >> i stay on this pursuit. i'm very transparent about it. i've disclosed everything i know about it if i make the credit committee,

i will act as a fiduciary for everybody involved i'm an advocate for this industry, and this changes nothing. just look at the numbers that came out of circle today i'm an investor there too. you've got the, i lost it all on ftx, and we have a fantastic print on circle. the promise of crypto remains. this will not change it. and you'll be discussing this case for two years it's not going to go away. >> at least. i think at least >> kevin o'leary, i want to thank you for joining us this morning. >> it's been a pleasure. >> i'm sure it has we do look forward to your testimony next week >> i will be there, andrew meantime, moments ago, president biden holding a news conference about the deal that freed wnba star brittney griner from a russian prison. she had been detained in russia since february you can see full coverage right now on cnbc.com. let's get down to the new york stock exchange and check in with jim cramer. what would you like to talk about this morning >> i think we have to distinguish between the notion of what blockchain is -- no one

thinks blockchain is bad what happens here -- and i thought you guys did an amazing job. i think kevin o'leary's caught up in a sub suboptimal situation. the whole thing seems so bottomless that i don't know how to fathom it >> we're all trying to figure it out. i think kevin's right. it's going to be years we're hearing about this once bankruptcy courts get involved, it's going to be a very long unwinding. look, i don't know about bitcoin. i think that is different than a lot of the other coins but i think the marks that came with some of these things are enough to leave you scratching your head >> well, everything you said was true at the end -- i think that kevin said that everything you said was true the problem is everything everyone says is true about this except it's just a giant con, and remember, the con is not -- it's not blockchain. blockchain is great. but we keep conflating

blockchain with the con, and i don't know how that can continue i mean, the -- this thing, all these different prices, we put up solana and doge coin. those are all, i believe, coins. why don't we just put up a bunch of stocks that are valued at the same size. i'm tired of the con i thought you guys did a terrific job and i love blockchain, but it has nothing to do with what happened that's like saying, you know, i really love the fact that we put up cryptocurrencies. there's nothing to love. technology is good, but it's -- i mean, if we think that the xrp/usd coin is something we should be following, well, we should be following -- we should rent the runway and stitch fix up there honestly >> we can have those ceos on too, i guess >> let's put sienna up there i don't know it's just a random group of things that we put up and i question that because i'm busy

trying to find how to make money for people, and i don't want to try to figure out how to lose money for people >> i tell you what -- >> my job is -- i've lost money. i've had some bad ideas. but i don't put them up there every five minutes >> well, i will say, the thing we have been watching most frequently is the ten-year, and i think that's going to take -- >> i think amazon's big, and maybe apple should be up there and maybe we ought to put, i don't know, microsoft and then solana okay i don't know >> jim, thank you. we're going hear more of your thoughts in just a few minutes >> i thought you did a great job, and that's what matters for our viewers and our readers. >> thanks, jim >> in related, "wall street journal" op-ed, judy shelton asked, who's the blame for the high cost of living in the u.s. and examines what role the fed, congress, and taxpayers play in it judy joins us now, a senior fellow at the independent institute. we had an extended interview there. i don't know how much time we really have, but in reading your

comments, i agree. there were mistakes made i guess my question at this point is, do you think inflation needs to be reined in, even if it causes a recession, or looking back at how it happens, maybe the fed is complicit, but at this point, are they on the right track and is it the only track that's going to work near term supply side issues take a while. >> a lot of the inflation is already baked into the cake because we know that the -- what the government calls excess savings, what it really means is $2.3 trillion in government fiscal transfer payments made during the covid era a ton of that is still sitting in the hands of consumers. and so they still have spending power, and i think that's the aggregate demand that's putting so much pressure on supply but if you ask, then, is the fed taking the right tack, i think

their strategy is wrong if they think that having slower growth and raising unemployment is going to resolve a problem that's an imbalance between demand and supply. so, it takes more than what the fed is doing it's not just about monetary policy and the fed is complicit it was also the loose money during the covid era that propped up the, again, excess savings of households who had financial assets or homes that gained in value because of cheap money. so together, with the fiscal mistakes of congress, i think -- and i think to some extent they continue to pay people not to work, you're just going to keep feeding labor demands, and then you get into that wage/price spiral we really need to quit paying people not to work, and it would be good if the fed didn't use as its primary tool, paying higher interest rates on cash, held it

on deposit at the fed, to banks and mutual funds, paying them not to make loans. it's a productive loans that would help create more supply. >> right whenever we talk about this, everyone comes to the same conclusion it's really unfortunate that bad policy, both fiscal and monetary, we're all going to be paying for it, and the people that can least afford it are paying for it now through inflation, and they may pay even worse when they lose their jobs when the fed orchestrates what they hope is a soft landing but which could be a hard landing. but even with all that in mind, most people that we've talked to say, but it's worth it but we need to do it and it's not a -- you know, it's not a targeted -- we can't shoot at the bullseye. it's almost like scatter shot, and all these other things things are going to get affected as we try to cool the labor market, which may or may not respond quickly to just hurting demand so, everybody admits it's a

problem and says, we need to do it anyway. >> well, the labor market is a problem in that people don't want to work, but they're being -- it's a very logical decision that was a great new book out by senator phil graham, who used to head senate banking, and he shows that by comparing statistics from the census bureau and the bureau of labor statistics, the lowest quintal, the low us 20% of americans are consuming twice as much as their income that's coming from somewhere if you can make -- he figured out you can average $45,000 worth of income by accessing government transfer payments, whether it's food stamps or housing subsidies or child tax credits, and i think that's demoralizing for the people who actually make a little bit more and are working all day long and then end up having to pay taxes. >> like the same people that paid off their student loans and

didn't get furniture for ten years. it's the same thing. judy, we got to be out at the top of the hour. we'll do this again when we have more time. i'm still thinking about our previous interview and this one. >> i think that one was inspiration for the "journal" piece today. >> thank you and we're done make sure you join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" coming up next ♪ good thursday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street," i'm carl quintanilla with jim cramer and david faber at the new york stock exchange bulls trying to put a five-session losing streak to bed this morning futures green, although some of that is pinned to oil, up 5% on news of this keystone pipeline interruption in nebraska road map begins with stocks looking to bounce back after five days down tesla continues to drag on the nasdaq >> plus exxon's