while you wait for things to play out i'm staying long. >> a play on carl icahn and his presence there steve weiss, is that you with merck? >> yeah. i wanted to put a name there that's familiar to you, scott. i'm not going to buy anymore, but i think if you've got the right market, it's a great story and it's cheap stock. >> you should keep the time, too, something unfamiliar to you. good to see everybody. "the exchange" is now. thank you, scott hi everybody i'm kelly evans. here is what's ahead on "the exchange." it's been a spectacular collapse for oil prices 24 year, hovering just over $72 a barrel after a 10% drop in the past week. gasoline prices have also plunged and could be headed below three bucks nationwide the energy sector still up 50% this year. is it time to bail we'll ask. the plunge in gas prices has been another headwind for shares

of tesla the stock down more than 50% this year. do the charts suggest it's about to take off again or not some key earnings on tap costco, lululemon and rh all due out with results after the bell today. first, let's get to dom chu as the markets head higher. >> if they'd stay that way we've snap a five-day losing streak. it's green across the screen generally fractional gains the bulls would take it as a small win. the dow up 16 points, s&p 500 up about 27 points. 39.60 for the s&p. the highs of the session, up 41 points at the lows we were still up 2 on the nasdaq, up 111, over 4% 11,070 the trade for the composite. thematically speaking, one place we're watching closely is what's happening with certain names in

the chinese internet the crane shares, we've use it as a proxy for the china tech trade is up 6% on the day. if you look on the right-hand side of the screen, since the lows we saw this fall, this is an 80% move off the lows, still down about 27% for the year. we did at one point hit the highest level for this china internet etf since the end of august, to give you an idea of where we are contextually speaking one of the other outperformers momentum wise has been semiconductor, computer chip names. nvidia, micron, qorvo. kelly, they still remain pretty range-bound over the course, as an industry over the course of the last couple weeks. >> dom, thanks come on over, come on over and

join us for this next conversation my next guest has controversial picks and we need the chuster to way in sarah mallick is nooufian's cio. sarah, controversial is what i meant in referencing your reit pick is this an area where you think investors should be for 2023 >> did you say reits >> yes. >> we like public reits. if you look at the stocks, down significantly more than they usually are doing downward cycles they've overly priced in what we acknowledge as a rollover in the housing market this is important. oftentimes the stocks will price in what's going on with the fundamentals ahead of time i think public reits look interesting at this point. >> what do you think, dom? >> you mentioned the residential

things no doubt real estate is more tried to interest rates than many other industries. when it comes to residential, we've soon the cool off in housing prices the curious part will be whether or not it impacts commercial real estate more heavily than the residential market, only because at certain points during covid there was such a massive move towards people wanting to invest in warehouse space and certain other parts of the commercial industry side of things meanwhile, office space really took a hit during that time as well there's a tug of war push and pull, but no doubt rates are part of that story by the way, it's not just because of the borrowing costs, it's because there's an alternative to investing in reits. they were always a dividend play, income play. now you can get 3.5% to 4.5% in treasuries it makes the real estate investments less attractive. liquid savings accounts are yielding 2 to 2.5%.

>> why take the exposure risk right now when we're not sure if we'll be facing with qt even less liquidity in the system >> i think basically when you look at the fundamentals, i think you need to be selective within the real estate sector. commercial has structural issues going forward, especially in urban centers. in the more rural centers and in apartment areas and other residential areas, i think the other good news with real estate is it's disinflationary. if you look at the numbers going forward, shelter numbers have been a key reason that inflation has peaked and starting to roll over as well as less spending on goods. the bad news, of course, is wages. wages remain very high that's why we think inflation styes higher for longer and the slope of the decline is not as extreme as maybe the market is hoping for. >> that's interesting because you guys in general have a playbook more about recession

than inflation risk. overall what does this boil down to in terms of where investors need to be >> for 2023 the key risk is a recession. the two reasons we're worried about it are the impacts on tighter monetary policy and mixed economic data we're seeing corporate margins and also the consumer so how do you build a recession-resistant playbook within equities? look at companies like dividend growers. they have income component and lower volatility they still look cheap to us. outside of it, we like fixed income over equities you can get returns from higher quality areas such as investment grade. outside of public markets, you can look at farmland and infrastructure these tend to be more like companies with waste management in them. this is fairly recession resilient. that's what you want to focus on next year as we worry about economic data. >> one of the biggest areas of

opportunity, for instance, a little bit lower than investment grade where you get some mid teens kind of returns right now. we'll talk about this next hour. it comes at the same time there's some risk of bankruptcies rising if companies can't russ stain their operations without the liquidity environment. >> saira i'm sure has been watching these dynamics as well. certainly in investment grade and to a certain degree in higher-graded junk bonds, i guess you could call them. to that point, you're not seeing -- there's been a downturn, no matter how you slice it it hasn't priced in what could be a deep recession. if there were, you would see high yield debt off a lot more than it is right now for that reason i'm hearing investors and traders facility toward the credit side of things sarah mentioned investment grade. i'm hearing more and more about

high grade junk. single bs, not going out to the c handles out there. you can find some of those opportunities that give you somewhat equity-like returns and put you higher up on the capital structure. in case things do go wrong, there's a tiny amount of recourse on that level versus stocks. >> saira, this is actually munis, areas that might be safer, the government a little less likely to have to tighten its purse strings on the private sector. >> i think municipalities, they're strong, so while they've had poor returns this year, the backing behind them in the fundamentals looks good. i do agree on high yield high yield is much higher quality this cycle than in prior cycles it's got large exposure to energy those companies are performing very well in terms of their fundamentals so another area i wouldn't count out is high yield. high yield, investment grade and munis can give you returns that

look like equity returns in the past. >> never talked so much about credit -- >> in the top block of a show. >> yes, exactly. saira, thank you so much dom, thank you as well. let's turn to tesla. the stock is down more than 12% this year, down 20% since ceo elon musk acquired twitter at the end of october my next guest says the technicals are pointing to a bounce here so explain is jessica ins kipp jessica, how big of a bounce do you think? >> there's bullish divergence that's forming it really plays out even with k whip volatility, the dfgs is uncertainty. the twitter deal was uncertain tesla has a high beta which means it moves more than the market later on those macro headlines

uncertainty, now we have additional volatility which means sharp down swings and also sharp upswings the twitter deal absolutely was the catalyst that moved tesla right below the 200 daily moving average. now what i'm targeting is support. now that we have resolution or we have clarity, now we're going to find where that level of support is fined, that's around the 200 weekly averages, targeting 165. the next resistance zone is about 200. i know that's a sharp movement again, it's tesla. tesla moves quite a bit, has a high beta. we expect sharp movements upwards and downwards and hopefully some clarity now that the twitter deal is closed and we see what elon musk does with that. >> that would be a sigh of relief for frustrated tesla investors. what do you think after that point? can we take a longer term look at the charts and look at whether there's a lot of potential upside or if this is more of a trading range? >> it's certainly a short-term

trading bounce you're targeting, just like the uncertainty with tesla itself, macro headwinds have to be resolved. when we're thinking about picking stocks in this environment, tesla has consistent by beat their earnings we're seeing layoffs across the tech sector. when that happens and there's a shakeup, that means there's an opportunity for remanagement, product focus and innovation elon musk is spearheading that he's not someone i would bet against because he concentrates on those earnings which is important to have a catalyst for a longer-term bounce. >> would it be correct to say, in a way the chart suggests tesla is oversold and a longer term sustainable trading level might be around the 200 level or higher >> correct, absolutely hit the nail on the head. >> do you have anything to say about what the broader markets would have to do in order for that to happen we talk about how it's such a high beta stock, maybe twice as volatile as the overall market than if it's going up to 200, can i feel bullish about the

whole stock market >> not necessarily it doesn't have a huge weight within the s&p 500 overall it does fall under discretionary. however, from the overall market, just like we need clarity to find our price point, that 200 price point for tesla, we need clarity for the overall broader market we're still searching for cad lifts as we count down to next week and powell tells us how restrictive he's going to be or how long he's going to keep rates where they are. >> it's the only thing that matters for tesla, so many other names. jessica, thanks for your time today. appreciate it. coming up, don't look now, but gasoline is cheaper than it was at the beginning of the year and crude oil as well. how do we come full circle we'll look at the spectacular price collapse earnings exchange is back with aven generals. break out the yoga pants, snacks and catalogs, we're trading lulu, costco and rh.

"the exchange" is back after this

. welcome back to "the exchange." oil and gasoline prices are at 52-week lows energy stocks are in a lot of cases near 52-week highs oil is 3% below where it was last december. gasoline similar story trading

at 52-week lows. aaa average $3.32 from $3.34 last year. let's bring in stan major hosh kish and riley's a very different landscape than a couple months ago. what happened? >> i think if you look at the short-term, a number of things that have kept prices down in general, weak economy strategic petroleum reserve has added hundreds of billions on the market i think it's temporarily hidden issues on the energy market. by issues, i mean long-term supply and demand imbalances >> to look back at what the oil bears, like ed morse over at citi were saying earlier this year, he correctly predicted we would have excess inventories right now, the opposite problem of what we thought would happen. how did we get into this

situation? >> i think economic weakness, strategic petroleum reserve. i think in general people thought russian production would come off it has yet to come off we've added that extra supply from strategic petroleum reserves to offset that and it has yet to happen. i think what we've seen is temporarily prices have been suppressed the big issue in the oil market is that the world is just not spending enough money for long-term demand demand is suppressed it's 100-ish-million barrels a day. that's similar to 2019 the potential is that the world demand 103, 104, 105 million barrels a day. the issue is, it is very difficult to see how we'll supply that. you mentioned exxon. they came out with capital expenditures chevron did the other day. these are companies spending, in the case of exxon, $25 billion

next year roughly. chevron is around 15-ish-billion those companies used to spend in 2013, 2014 in a smaller market, over $30 billion a year. the spending is just not back to sustain a larger demand growth market that's the issue that the oil market is going to run into when we run out of these stherm factors in suppressing demand. >> even a guy like ed acknowledges, as we move through out the decade, political pressure, we could see more upward price pressure on oil. >> hard to see how it doesn't happen. >> can investors be comfortable with this as an asset class for the longer term, even if they feel bruised by the recent price collapse >> absolutely. if you look at the valuations of the stocks, the companies tend 10% to 20% free cash flow yield. think of that as five to ten times earnings they're taking the free cash flow and buying back stocks.

those earnings of free cash flow per share is growing very rapidly. that's why we've seen stocks up 40% to 50% even though the oil market is slightly down. >> what are your favorite names in the space have they remained consistent or would you now start to look at different parts of the sector? >> they're consistent. we focus on the small to mid-cap enp company taking that free cash flow, buying back stock, maintaining capital discipline it's similar to what we've owned for the last few years. >> final question, should we then be using these low oil prices if you think they're temporary and suppressed, then is now the right time to fill up the spr or make other strategic moves we could to capitalize on where prices are just for the moment >> yeah. the world is very exposed to risks. we've released emergency stockpiles without a real emergency.

companies are not spending enough money we're exposed to issues whether it's middle east production, russian production coming up the real issue is you have to give confidence to companies to spend for projects that will come on 5, 10, 15 years from now, and they really don't have that that's where the situation in the long run gets pretty dire. >> do you think we could be speaking back up to 100 in the near term? >> it's difficult to see how we don't in the next few years. >> all right this would be opportune. stan we'll leave it there. thanks for your time today. >> thank you. >> stan major. you heard about a white collar crime how about a white collar recession? disney plus's ad-supported tier launches today is it enough to jump start the stock? that's ahead speaking of disney a look at the map with goldman

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welcome back to "the exchange." up 3.01 at the highs all three averages in the green. the nasdaq with a bounce after a tough stretch. a big move higher for sienna talking about favorable supply chain developments in the latter part of the quarter. that's a 20% pop for cien. hershey hitting an all-time high they got an upgrade at ubs to buy, they're expecting a beat and raise cycle for the next

three years. a lot of optimism there for hershey. mondelez saying macro headwinds will likely cap their earnings growth next year elsewhere, salesforce is falling to its lowest level since march of 2020. unbelievable pandemic lows we're talking about. the stock has been under pressure since its earnings report, up 18% this month alone. ceo marc benioff joining "mad money" tonight at 6:00 p.m here is bertha coombs. >> this hour, dan snyder, allowed a toxic work culture for more than two decades, the conclusion in a report by a house panel investigating the team he said snyder obstructed the inquiry and the nfl misled the public and continued to minimize workplace misconduct across the league. hundreds of employees at

"the new york times" are on a 24-hour walkout, their first strike in 40 years members of the news guild of new york say they're tired of bargaining that has dragged on since their last contract expired in march of last year. a spokesperson for the times says the paper has continuous plans to keep operating without disruptions. in rome, pope francis wept while praying for peace in ukraine. the crowd broke into applause when they realized the pope was overcome with tears and encouraged him to continue, which he did very moving. >> wow a reminder, bertha, so many of us have moved on from following that story day in and day out, these are human lives, horrible events happening there every day. >> really. it's rue. >> bertha coombs, thank you. up next, costco, lululemon, rh with earnings afterhe t bell.

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welcome back recession, inflation, all of that is front of mind as we head into the key holiday spending

period notable stocks could give us a sense for all three. time for a retail edition of "earnings exchange." we give you the action, the story and the trade on three names and we'll start with house favorite costco. shares are slightly lower today, actually on pace for their first annual loss in five years. down about 15% since january just last week they reported november sales that disappointed melissa repko is here with the story. gina sanchez, a cnbc contributor, is here with our trades melissa, costco, what's happening? what's wrong >> kelly, we heard some weak numbers when it put out its november sales we already know how sales are going to look. i'll be listening for how it's doing in other ways. are people upgrading to the more expensive membership i'll be listening to how the merchandise mix is working in november people were buying fewer discretionary items like jewelry and more of food the third thing is the forecast.

what is it thinking about as it ends the year and looks ahead to next year? is it expecting some of the same trends it saw in november or was that just a blip. >> gina, is it ever wise to bet against costco >> look, this is something that in a recession, where everybody goes the buy cheap things in bulk with mortgage resets, rent increases and other cost prices higher, everyone is going to be looking to downgrade their budgets. this is a great place for it the problem with costco is it's just trading at a really slight discount to its long-term valuation. it's 32 times long-term valuations this isn't really a bargain where it is, and the economy is slowing. so it's really hard to get excited. if you hold it, you hold it. it's not about it has performed well relative to the rest of the retail space. >> how much of a bellwether are they, melissa? they're such a unique beast. when you describe the selection issues fay ear facing in

november, that looks like it's common across the industry. >> they have a more affluent consumer, so that could help them in some ways. they do benefit from that element of stretching your dollar more by getting bulk packaging. they may benefit from people seeing the value and shopping there more >> yeah, absolutely. let's move on to lululemon faring slightly better than costco, down only 5% on pace to snap a six-year winning streak they've beaten the street on 18 of the past 20 quarters when it comes to earnings and revenue. that is very impressive. we barely talk about lulu anymore. >> lululemon is one investors have high hopes about because it is so consistent and has a lot of pricing power their goods sell at a higher price point. that's attracted a wealthier shopper who could be more insulated from the pressure of inflation. there is hope about strong store traffic during the holidays, strong holiday demand. there's even a possibility of them raising their forecast.

that's what some investors hope to hear today. it's navigating a different environment. on the one hand, it's dealing with cheaper freight cost, going against a time when it was flying in merchandise a year ago. on the other hand, competing with retailers that have excess inventory and are marking things down including athletic apparel. >> gina, lulu matured nicely as a stock. it turns out not to be a flash in the pan story what do you do with that >> lulu is one that is bucking the trend because, as mentioned, it is a higher-priced item they rarely discount, and this was a pandemic darling that i thought would lose steam and it hasn't in fact, the return to work didn't actually cause people to abandon their yoga pants now we have enough flexibility in our schedule that you can justify a full complement of yoga pants at home i think that's definitely -- if

you look at their earnings and the expectations, i agree the expectations are probably the biggest challenge to this stock, there are very high expectations and we're going into a slowdown. if you look at how it's performed so far, it has been exceptional and has done very well relative to other competitors. so clearly there's a hugh affinity toward this brand. >> oh, sure. i'm curious if that leaves you positive on the stock despite how you feel about the rest of retail or if you're relatively optimistic about the other apparel makers, too? >> i'm actually positive on this stock relative to the rest because they're showing they have pricing power and showing they have brand affinity, and when times get tough, those things matter. >> yeah, don't they. we'll move on now to rh, formerly known as restoration hardware shares cut in half this year their first down year in five. they've risen four of the last four reports revenue expected to grow 16% year over year melissa, what are you watching

>> for rh, it's important to think about 2023 there are a lot of questions about the housing environment and what that means. they cater to a more luxury shopper. that consumer in some cases was buying a second home or redoing their home during the pandemic that dynamic started to recede what will that mean for 2023 are these customers able to keep spending on expensive furniture or are they also going to feel the pinch going into the next year they're pushing into new areas they opened their first hotel in new york this is a new channel for them what are they going to get out of their new types of businesses they also launched a new line of furniture. some of the growth areas could help them during the stretch. >> wow, a hotel. no wonder they're hr, not restoration hardware i see your face, gina. not a fan of the move? >> it's an interesting move. although i could see it if you wanted everyone to try out your furniture and then buy it. maybe it's a showroom in action.

but the problem with rh is they're not a discount -- they don't like to discount they haven't discounted. i think luxury is going to be really challenging here you're actually seeing the impact already we're already seeing kind of a downward trend in their revenues, and this company is trading very cheap, trading at 13 times earnings. this is a company that normally trades at 30 times, but we think it's probably cheap for a reason right now, because not only is the trend down in terms of revenues and earnings, but the expectations are also down and we're also seeing short interest piling up on the stock as well. so this one i think is far more challenged. >> this is going to be a busy afternoon for you, melissa. >> definitely. lots of interesting things we'll hear about how the consumer is doing. >> we need these touch points right now. it's kind of a blurry dashboard as we head into 2023 melissa repko and gina sanchez, always appreciate it. disney launched its

ad-supported tier of disney plus will viewers just trade down we'll get the latest before we head to break, let's do some show and tell. cummings shares are out doing -- here is what the ceo said earlier today about the outlook on the covid crisis. >> china is a important part of our business, both the products we sell in the country, a big market as well as some supply out of china i'm encouraged by the signs that some of the lockdowns are lifting. what i would say, the economy has really been down for us in china. a lot of uncertainty given the lockdowns and how that will transpire in the coming weeks and months

welcome back disney plus launching their ad-supported tier. will it do anything to boost the

stock which is off more than 40% from the high of 160 back in january. down more than 5% this week. will today's launch move the needle on subscriptions and the bottom line. let's ask julia boorstin >> disney is hoping the ad-supported tier which cost the same as the original streaming app did before the $3.00 price hike they hope to draw new subscribers. disney saying it's secured more than 100 advisers which will appear more -- disney's ad supported cots more than netflix. the only of the ad-supported streamers that costs more is hbo max. former disney ceo bob chapek said if customers trade down, at worst it would be neutral but it could be margin ag cretive netflix could generate $1.2

billion in ad revenue, by 2025 in the u.s. market alone the good news for streamers is despite an overall advertising slowdown, display video advertising, that's what you see in these achs. that's expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 8.8% in the u.s. between 2022 and 2027 that's faster than the digital add average. media giants, netflix, nbc universal with peacock, corner discovery, all of them are counting on ad-supported streaming to drive growth in new markets and help prevent subscriber losses and more saturated ones they're all facing such important times. >> if you have roku, you may not have the option of watching ad-supported disney, is that right? >> that's right, kelly disney plus with ads is available pretty much everywhere except for roku. that's because disney and roku have not come to an agreement

yet around the revenue share roku, of course, has its own ad-supported free channel itself, and i'm sure there is some conflict here about how much disney wants to actually give up to roku of its add revenue or subscription fees they'll have to work that out before you can get that version of the app on the roku platform. >> i thought it was interesting what you said, it could be a neutral to the bottom line for maybe accretive. there's a lot riding on this. >> yes there's a lot riding on this i think the key thing here, kelly, if you don't want to pay for the price increase, you want to pay the same amount per month you were playing originally for disney plus and you'll switch to this version i think the idea is they hope it will be margin accretive, if you're paying something in a subscription fee and generating the revenue for them for advertising, that together that will end up benefiting disney more

of course, that was under the old bob -- that was under bob chapek there's a new bob in charge. we'll see how it pays out. >> i was a subscriber to some version of this. i think for most people it's just easier to ride that price increase and think to themselves, i'll deal with this later, than to go and figure out how to switch tiers. for streaming in general, while churn is much higher than in cable and traditional television, it's still not as high as it could be because there's so much stickiness surrounding the use of your passwords, logging in and figuring out how to even switch through some of these systems. >> a lot of analysts have said disney will be stickier because it has the kids content which kids demand and are willing to watch over and over. with the economy going into next year, if people say i'm paying for so many different services,

let me pay less for some of them or cut some of them out. >> julia, thank you, we appreciate it. the economy may not be in recession. the next guest says the white collar labor market already is zip recruiter's chief economist joins us with what that's telling us about the jobs market and the broader economy next at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

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welcome back everybody we start with the news alert out of washington with the dow at 254. ylan mui with the details. >> the house just passed the annual defense authorization bill with broad bipartisan support. the final vote tally was 350-80, almost' kwael numbers of republicans and democrats voting in favor this bill would authorize $858 billion in defense spending for fiscal '23 that's more than the president had requested. it also includes a 4.6% pay increase for members of the military as well as dod civilians. importantly, it repeals the vaccine mandate for military service members. those were key compromises between both parties the bill will now go on to the senate where it's expected to

pass as well as head to the president's desk kelly, the first step is done with the house passing the annual defense authorization bill let's get a quick check on the defense etf, the ita it's up 8% for the year in which the broader market is down 28% northrop, lockheed, general dynamics all up more than 19%. we've seen a lot of lay-offs in the tech sector it's not just tech where we're seeing a slowdown. far fewer jobs are being posted in industries ranging from health care to finance, even to science. this is date from zip recruiter since june our next guest is zip recruiter's chief economist. for more joining me now let's bring in julia pollack from zip recruiter. great to see you do we call it a recession yet or is this just a slowdown? >> so far in the aggregate

numbers the labor market is still very strong. the last report showed 60% more jobs added across the economy and they're being added across a very broad set of industries if you look at job openings and if you look at lay-offs, you can see that lay-offs have risen most in white collar industries like real estate, information and financial services and that job postings have also declined most in six of the seven industries with the largest declines in job postings since june which is when job postings started to change and turn over, those industries are very white collar industries that have been growing by leaps and bounds in recent years. >> can you contrast that with -- i don't know if zip recruiter has as much data on blue collar jobs, but is that part of the economy holding up much more strongly >> it's holding up much more strongly by contrast, it's risen 24% in personal care services, things like hair salons and nail salons and laund mats and dry cleaning

services also up strongly in travel and health care. health care, of course, has very strong long-term prospects and doesn't tiply lose jobs at all in a recession with an aging population, that industry is likely to continue growing. >> that's been one area where it's been almost recession-proof for quite some time. just because we're seeing a pullback in job openings, does that mean the next step could be lay-offs this is such a strange environment where we've had so many job openings in the economy, the fed is literally targeting it to try to dial it back but without causing a bigger labor market recession. not clear if they can thread that needle. >> overall in the economy right now, there are about 1.4 million lay-offs and firings happening etch month that's about 500,000 fewer each month than during the pandemic overall workers have never had it so good, never had this much job security that said, if you look under the hood a little bit, if you look

by industry, lay-offs and discharges, if you look at this quarter versus the previous quarter are up 38% in real estate, up 21% in information, up 20% in financial services they're also rising in travel and transportation warehousing those are industries that grew very rapidly when people were spending on goods when they couldn't spend on services now that people are shifting back to services, we're seeing truckers and warehousing workers getting laid off as well. >> do you think spreading it out and, unfortunately, signaling a broader downturn is probably what's happening here? >> so i think the number one factor to look at is the strength of the u.s. consumer. and we've all seen the chart that shows credit card loan debt returning to its pre-covid trend. it looks alarming. the fastest growth in credit card debt on record. if you look at those data -- if

you look at credit card payments, debt service payments as a share of disposal income, they're still low and way below pre-covid levels if you look at delinquencies when it comes to most kinds of loans, they're still falling more flat and very, very low so the consumer does not yet appear to be hurting and pulling back and if coordination spending on goods and services remains strong, we might just see the labor market tilt back to normal, but not actually fall into recessionary territory. >> do you have any data on wages to indicate where the pressure is heading >> yeah, so finding out what's happening with wages is one of the hardest thing to do. the data is mixed and these averages that we get from the labor department are often distorted by shifting industry mixes of jobs. that said, we have a great

survey of 2,550 workers hired in the last six months. and we found that the share of workers who got double-digit pay increases rose from 31% in february to 43% in october we also see that the share getting signing bonuses went up and not down reports of the labor market cooling broadly speaking may be exaggerated still in those, you know, blue-collar industries and manual services. employers are still rolling out the red carpet for workers and still facing incredible competition for talent. >> a very different environment than what we've been in lately thanks for showing it to us. appreciate it. coming up, for inflation to come down, rents have to come down too, but that's not happening in manhattan we'll look at why rents aren't and what it means for the city and the inflation picture next as we go to break, let's

take a look at trading game stop up despite results coming in weaker than expected they saw a demand decline in core products. this obviously one of the big meme stocks that traded over $75 a share back in 2021 and just over $24 today we're back in a moment at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn.

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i'm in my last life. designed to help you keep more of what you earn. what happened to the other eight lives? does this have shell fish in it? - yes, sir. ehhh... a wishing star, will get me my life back. it's in the dark forest. after you. -wait, what? dog, still alive? welcome back manhattan rents have remained stubbornly high and it's presenting two problems. robert frank is here with more robert >> kelly, the median rent in manhattan increasing 2% in november and up 19% over the past year. many expected rents to finally start coming down. that didn't happen the average rent in manhattan over $5,200 a month. this is creating a problem for inflation and new york is, of course, the nation's largest

rental market. the rest of the country is seeing lower rents but new york prices, they just haven't followed it's also a problem for young renters who are, once again, getting priced out of manhattan. new leases fell 39% in november. that is the biggest decline since the start of the pandemic in 2020. brokers telling me many renters are facing rent hikes of 20% or more from their leases and they're simply leaving or downsizing or just not resigning. that has not been enough to increase supply. the vacancy rate is 2.4% that is well below the norm. kelly, it's that tight supply that's keeping these prices elevated and given the shortage of apartments, it's going to be months before we start to see prices actually start to decline again. >> does anybody, robert, think that prices are going to drop in the near term? >> well, there was one ray of hope for renters in this november report which is that the landlord concessions which

is typically like free rent or free electricity for a month, those ticked up slightly so that's a sign that, you know, at least the landlords realized they may have overreached in november and they're starting to pull back. brokers tell me december is looking a little better. we'll have to wait for that report. >> if you were talking about manhattan, i would think to myself, people are going to brooklyn, queens but because this encompasses the whole city, where are people going then if they're looking for lower rents and how is that affecting the surrounding areas, you think? >> yeah, these numbers are manhattan. they are, in fact, going to the boroughs and a lot of them are moving back out to the suburbs you have a lot of people moving out of the city during covid, they moved back in 2020, 2021, and now they may go back to the suburbs again because they came in when rents were 20% lower than they are today. so it's a mix of the suburbs as well as the outer boroughs. >> i've seen so many new

buildings going up in the city are there not, you know, large projects under way that could increase the supply? >> there are large projects. you can see all the sky cranes, we don't have a supply problem in fact, most of those buildings are very high-end condos geared towards wealthy buyers and the wealthy buyers are pulling back from the market. they're in the rental market now because they don't want to buy that's going to be supply that's really kind of moth balled until the sales market recovers. it's not going to help the rental market. >> seems so unfair to have these huge, beautiful projects kind of not with as many interesting -- >> sitting empty. >> robert, thank you robert frank wite latest on those rents. speaking of housing, the head of one real estate fund says now is a time to buy. that's ahead on "power lunch" which begins right now ♪ welcome to "power lunch.

here's what's ahead. peak rates treasury yields falling from their recent highs despite the fed signals there are more hikes ahead. inflation fears replaced by concession concerns. plus, a veteran real estate investor is starting to buy again, targeting distressed properties in key markets. he'll tell us what he's seeing as the commercial and residential markets come under pressure kelly, over to you >> the dow had been up 301 with all the major averages in the green. the s&p, by the way, is higher for the first time in six sessions it's really been a struggle for us to get some rally power tesla shares are moving on reports it's shortening production shifts in china there's reports that elon musk ba bankers are considering loans. and the chip stocks are the biggest gainers this afternoon nvidia