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tv   Street Signs  CNBC  December 9, 2022 4:00am-5:00am EST

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what about all the other victims here that can't speak to-- to shirlee or thomas or roger or mary? good morning welcome to "street signs." iemt b i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm julianna tatelbaum. these are your headlines >> major central banks suggest they will continue to stifle growth as they staple the out inflation. shares of credit suisse looking for an everyt offering.
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and financial services overhauling rules in the hope the city of london can regain the crown as the financial center. and is this game over for microsoft's activision sued to block the acquisition over concerns it would harm competition in the gaming space. well, good morning welcome to "street signs." we made it to the end of the week what a week for markets. you see as we get to the final hours of trading on friday, stoxx 600 is up five basis appoin points as a whole for the week, it is negative a lot of hope and optimism from
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china and hong kong looking to ease covid restrictions. that led to a big bounce there not so much mirrored in the stoxx 600 this week. lingering concerns of the state of the economy and individual companies that we have been looking at as well that is the scene setter let's talk about the individual markets and what is going on i want to start with the ftse 100. we are getting the so-called reforms today from the british chancellor jeremy hunt this is spelling out modifications on regulations for the city it could be quite significant going forward. the financial center had not been a major point of focus for brexit something that is worth noting within the financial services industry in the uk today the cac 40 down .20% the ecb governor from france talk about the possibility of a
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recession. it cannot be ruled out still thinks growth will be slightly positive. we have the ecb meeting next week right now, it feels like the market is leaning toward a 50 basis point rate hike. the swiss index. you see it is trading around 11,000 one stock we are watching is credit suisse. the bank has completed its 4 billion rights issue we are seeing a positive performance for the stock. this is the picture for the markets to date. in contrast for asian markets. ftse mib is down something to watch for the next couple weeks perhaps issues with the next recovery fund disbursement the dax is down 1.8% as we head into the colder with winter. the energy crisis continues to bite the ftse down 1.2% despite the
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bounce in commodities. this is what we are seeing this morning with sectors travel and leisure is up. oil and gas is down. it has been a volatile week for oil and gas it is negative on the week for the year, you would think in an environment where there is so much tension, oil would trade better investors are focused on the supply demand situation when we talk about the possibility of global recession let's talk more about credit suisse this bank is doing well. up 2%. it is trading at three swiss francs completed the cash call after raising additional 2.2 billion francs and share holders exercising 98% of the rights it is hailed as a milestone as
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it looks for the sweeping turn around plan following scandals and financial losses nice bounce for credit suisse today. julianna joumanna, thank you. ecb council member says a temporary recession cannot be ruled out next year. he expects growth to be slightly positive he expects eurozone growth to hit 2.6% this year ecb is expected to raise deposit rates by 50 basis points next week according to the latest survey by reuters. this as inflation in the block hit five times the target. let's look at european bonds hovering near the lowest levels in months ahead of the key ecb meeting next week. this morning, we are seeing bond yields move higher that is in contrast to what we are seeing in u.s. treasury yields that are moving lower today.
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let's look at the spread between the u.s. 10-year treasury yield curve. we saw 10-year yields in the u.s. rise 6.5 points to under 3.5% the 2/10 curve moved to become less inverted. all of this ahead of the bumper week next week with the federal reserve meeting and ecb meeting. henry dixon joins us at mann group. thank you for joining us on set. it feels like we are back in the good news is bad news regimen for markets. we got data release due today. the u.s. cpi next week is that the correct assessment of where we are? >> i take your point we have been in a situation whereby for the first time in a while, we have a situation where the economic outlook is
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certainly clouded heavily. i think it would make sense for me to pause after the fastest hiking cycles we had because of the transition lag if you think about ppi/cpi, these inputs and we need to be aware of march and april next year i think there is a lot to digest at the moment. and for the first time in two years, we started to see some inflection in earnings that's clearly starting to roll now. >> when it comes to the economic back drop, the labor market in the u.s. has been strong which has been a unique feature of the cycle. i wonder based on that strength whether there is any way to crack the labor market without triggering a painful recession >> it's a weird one when low unemployment and wage inflation
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is bad there will be other aspects at play with inflation. jpmorgan chase put on a good conference a few weeks ago the message is labor markets are hugely tight as i say, there are elements of inflation are good and wage inflation is one of the happiest inflation periods i can find in history. let's not bemoan this too much >> what do you think about the yield curve inversion? lots of people say it is a good sign that recession is bound to happen others say because central banks have interfered, it is not a true signal? >> i think i'm an old man. statistically it is impossible to refute the power of the yield curve. i think one of the most powerful things i see in finance from a
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behavior perspective is the recent perspective when people hear the word recession, they think covid and they think gfc we have been conditioned on brutal recessions. i promise you, you are allowed a mild recession that is allowed of you go back to 1955 and mid '60s not to the brutality we have seen that will provide a different earnings outcome that is where the mismatch is with expectation and reality >> you said something to julianna that we are coming off a tremendous amount of earnings. that has not been reflective of the earnings more tpower that te companies have had we spoke to analysts and talked to the outlook for next year earnings will get a day of reckoning. margins will come back in. what does it do at the index
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level? >> this is the fascinating bit it is disbursed. that's what we love. you look at the input and it is resource related oil started to roll. metals started to roll that is bad news for the sectors. i think some of the sectors are good that is a relief for consumer areas. we need to be aware of recent winners. let's be sure because there is no shortage of opportunities and what makes me super excited, i have never seen this from a valuation environment. >> stock picker environment. >> i promise you what i'm saying is true. >> you need to bring the receipts >> joumanna and i have talked many times for a macro fund, it is an incredible period.
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calling the rate narkmarkets in contrast it is difficult as investors it sounds this is a real opportunity. >> let's look at where the c carnage is in space. the cost of capital when it goes up has a horrible habit of doing that it has been a lot of ressure i'm pleased to say if you look at the uk, it started to be cheap and insulate yourself from the worst the balance sheet. look, it has been a very, very difficult period for the median stock having a terrible time there have been cheap and large shares that continue to be cheap. there is an opportunity. >> henry, can i ask about the uk prospects. you were at the jpmorgan chase a week ago you spoke to uk fund managers.
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>> ceos. >> how are you thinking about the investment opportunity in the uk the valuation is certainly there. over the summer, we had a series of issues and political developments that did not help uk's position on the international staplge would you say that is behind us and investors are looking at the opportunity? >> i think rehabilitation has started and started with rishi sunak. i'm impressed with how they communicate in the general manner for me, what is interesting in the uk, i don't think in the history of central banking has any central bank forecast the best part of the two-year recession. that might sound like bad news what we love is miserable expectation. it may not be as bad as we think. i'm welcoming the fact of the two-year recession that gives the hurdle for feeling slightly better. it makes it easier if i combine that with valuation, i think we have to be
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more positive. >> let me get to the line you said before joining us you can't under estimate the challenges of the last decade for operators who have been disruptive which sectors are we talking about here >> i think it is most going on at the moment. rule number one is when you lose p ca capital and stop doing that. you have to lose a load of money all in the name of customer growth i don't name too many, but an online food delivery business. >> that's the first that came to mind. >> my wife will only deal with them when it is too appealing. i've talk to my wife with them they will panwant to see profit you said it. i didn't say that word i want to use that as a
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microcosm. we can name bulb energy which is rise in energy we will start seeing that unwinding. i'll call out financial services areas of fintech have a less of a regulatory oversight. the losses won't be funded indefinitely i can see increases in fintech >> henry, fascinating conversation thank you for the bits henry dixon from man group. the yuan is near a three-month high against the dollar as investors look past the november numbers the consumer price index rose 1.6% that's down on october's 2.1% and comes amid surging covid cases released on wednesday.
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asian equities rallied on the covid policy thawing let's look at asian markets. green on the board nikkei is up 1.2%. hang seng up 2.3% for the week the hang seng now up 6%. really strong moves in asia. as joumanna pointed out, that is in contrast to what we have seen in europe and the u.s. and letter from foxconn showing strict covid rules shows risk to the supply chains and played a key role in the policy easing according to the wall street journal the group founder wrote to chinese leaders a month ago after workers fled the facility in guangzhou i remember talking about the foxconn walk-out we did not think it was the catalyst for change.
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it is remarkable to witness what is going on in china let's look at how some of the chip makers are faring these are the european chip makers slightly positive today. gina raimondo says this chip tech needs to be in line with other countries. >> this needs to be done with our allies if the united states controls a product and the netherlands doesn't, then china is able to get the product from the netherlands. we are working on a daily and weekly basis with the government in the netherlands and japan i'm optimistic we will find alignment. they have to go through their own process to get there of the reason i'm optimistic, they have the same national security incentives as we do. this is not about slowing down
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china's technology broadly this is very specifically around denying china sophisticated technology that china will use in its military and surveillance technology it is ever bit of interest for netherlands and japan that that happen which is why i'm optimistic they get there. they have to do their process. coming up on the show, leaders of france and spain and portugal will discuss a new hydrogen pipeline. could it be the answer to europe's energy crisis we'll discuss more after the break. my name is ashley cortez and i'm the founder of the stay beautiful foundation when i started in 2016 i would go to the post office and literally fill out each person's name on a label and now with shipstation we are shipping 500 beauty boxes a month it takes less than 5 minutes for me to get all of my labels
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welcome back to "street signs. chinese president xi jinping hailed a new era with arab countries as he went to saudi arabia and met with the crown prince he made a couple of deals of the t two countries.
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turkey is flagging down oil tankers not under russian sanctions to check insurance causing delays in the straits and raising concerns of global oil supply 1 of 20 tankers was carrying russian oil. the rest is carrying product which is not subject to the price cap. the delays are holding up over 20 million barrels of oil worth $1.2 billion we have seen interesting trade in oil this week we are bouncing. wti up .20%. brent is up as well. $72 and $76 a barrel the downward trend continued yesterday. as for the oil and gas majors, bp leading the shares lower 1.8%
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total energy is taking a hit this morning overall, negative trade for oil and gas stocks speaking of total. it will write down the stake in the russian gas company taking a $3.7 billion hit in the fourth quarter. it will withdraw the two directors from novatek board after the criticism for the business in russia. leaders from some of europe's western immemediterran countries will meet today to discuss the pipeline which is a proposed pipeline which will transport natural gas between barcelona and marseille. sylvia is here my understanding it is under water pipeline it is namely for the
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transportation of high tro gen hydrogen >> they are really thinking here in the longer term when it comes to their energy security when it comes to the specific details of the meeting today, first, they will discuss if this is a feasible project based on terms of climate implications that this pipeline might have and the second stage at the meeting today, they will discuss funding. how will they pay for this this is where the eu comes in. the president of the european commission will also be attending this meeting and discussing together whether this project has relevance to the rest of europe and whole of eu if so, this pipeline could profit from -- actually enjoy the funding at the eu level to be built let's wait to see if this
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project will go ahead. there is a huge focus of the eu boosting energy security in the medium and long term >> one thing i would say currently as current levels of consumption, hydrogen is 2% of the portfolio. it doesn't seem like it will make a big dent. >> it is interesting to hear this is a flexible source of energy supply for europe it rings out with the lng terminals. those terminals are used for lng and hope down the line used for hydrogen you talk about this being a medium term help for europe. what is the timeframe? >> this is the question. how long will it take to be built and when will consumers benefit? at the moment, that is the concern for all of the european leaders. also when it comes to germany, they have quite a lot of support for the project because they
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expect to benefit from it. all in all, this cannot be the only answer to the energy crisis it is one example of how they can boost energy security. >> it sounds like the leaders will go to the eu level and ask for funding. there was a report in reuters that this is an issue. is the eu happy to underwrite? >> probably the latter it is in interest of all of the member states to go ahead and have more sources of energy and rely less on sources outside of europe sharing energy within the 27 is one of the aims they have at the moment one of the obstacles that has led to the energy crisis at the moment, moving gas from the iberian peninsula to the
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rest of europe is not fezaasible they need the charge of seeing europe building more energy supply and sources and trying to be more independent. >> thank you for keeping us up to speed on all things energy. sylvia, great to have you on set. coming up, we'll discuss how uk plans to boost the financial sector as the country comes to grips with the cost of living crisis when we started our business we were paying an arm and a leg for postage. i remember setting up shipstation. one or two clicks and everything was up and running. i was printing out labels and saving money. shipstation saves us so much time. it makes it really easy and seamless. pick an order, print everything you need, slap the label onto the box, and it's ready to go. our costs for shipping were cut in half. just like that. shipstation. the #1 choice of online sellers. go to shipstation.com/tv and get 2 months free.
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welcome back to "street signs. i'm julianna tatelbaum >> i'm joumanna bercetche and these are your headlines. >> european markets looking to close sharply in the red as the central bank tries to stamp out inflation. credit suisse shares rise to the top of the stoxx 600 after a successful rights offering raising the 2.2 billion of the turn around plan.
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and big bang for financial services in the hope the city of london can regain crown as europe's financial center. is this game over for microsoft's activision takeover? regulators blocks acquisition over concerns it would harm competition in the gaming space. all right. we are about one and a half hours into the final trading session of the week. if were you along the european market or u.s. market, it is a difficult one. we saw moves higher in asia, but europe markets down 1.3% to date fairly muted trade as investors get ready to close the week, a holiday week, they
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are in wait and see mode ahead of the bumper week all due to deliver policy decisions and u.s. cpi next week back in the uk, jeremy hunt has a number of reforms for the financial sector after the post brexit decline under new plans, short selling rules will be reformed capital requirements reduced last night, the chancellor also announced the government will loosen rules on retail banks as well asset new mandates for the country's new watchdogs. you see clips of the announcement and what is to come over here, let's take you to the uk banks trading higher this morning. fairly contained rating agency fitch is set to
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re re-rate for the country's outlook to negative after the mini budget in the autumn. it is interesting to see what comes from this review later today. >> it feels like a long time ago with the mini budget scare. uk will fight any anti-strike recalls amid looming walkouts by nurses and ambulance drivers and other public service workers. they would have blocked the deal to avert the transport strike. communication workers union general secretary spoke to our sister channel sky news as postal workers begin the christmas period strike today. >> reporter: i think people are getting to the point where they see businesses and government in
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the case of the railways and nurses and teachers not responding to very simple requests to try and treat people who treat the rest of society fairly and to do the same with their group of workers >> industrial action comes at the time where people are looking for a second job to make ends meet. the chief brand officer joins us now. david, good morning to you could you help discuss how severe the cost of living crisis is in the uk versus other moments in history >> after the result, it was highlighted. we have gone from some hou households feeling pressure to really look at how they look at what they spend and a way to save money 40% of people are cutting back on eating out or clothes or take
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aways. this is feeling a pinch for many houses in the uk. >> what ways are people cutting spending what would you say is the most dominant way people are looking to reduce expenses on discretionary items? >> i think the high street and food and beverage hit. 40% of people cut back on eating out out. we see one-third of people cutting back on christmas. setting age budget. the high street on the food and beverage will feel the pinch this christmas >> david, how much emphasis do people put on the housing market with budgeting there is so much uncertainty where rates will go from here and impact that will have on mortgage rates and lending your house is a big part of your
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budget what is that relationship like >> i think we can see that through people spending particularly over christmas. they are prioritizing and increased bills with mortgage rates. when you look at properties, people historically look to add value to the property with kitchens and extensions. now we see a huge shift on people investing smartly with insu insulation people are aware of the operating cost of property that is how people are shifting priorities >> really interesting chart demonstrating how many people will see changes to the mortgages. some potentially big impacts there. how long will this last? the downbeat feeling in the uk not just the cost of living crisis or impact it has on
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people's psyches and how they think about spending >> i think the big uncertainty is how long this will last we see a huge shift in people looking to get second income into the households because of that medium term uncertainty. we see people starting businesses from their properties to sell online you have that's not just in the lower income categories. that is people earning over 50k in the main role a lot of people taking side jobs and developing their own businesses which could be good for the economy long term, but necessity of households at this stage. >> reflection of how difficult it is for people out there, david. the source of the cost of living crisis is energy prices and what is happening on that front what is your data telling you about how people are reallocating spending away from
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other items or items of discretionary spending toward paying utility bills >> we basically have seen one of the big shifts the huge shift to smart meters people previously thought they were nice to have. now they are a necessity for people to track spending they made decisions on a day-to-day basis to go out or made the house warmer. the capital investment in people's properties to make them more insulated to look at other forms of energy such as solar and battery packs where you charge through the night there's a lot of shift in more conscious behaviors in people's energy consumption and investment >> david, yesterday, disney plus raised prices for streaming
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packages we all have been wondering what is going to happen to the subscription services when we enter an economic down turn. what is your data telling you about how people treat subscriptions? >> i think the big cut back is on subscriptions we have seen from our data that people said they may go back to looking to more legally streamed content. i think web finances were good paying a premium to subscribe to the packages are okay. now people are deciding if they are a necessity. previously where people would buy multiple packages for sports and lifestyle and documedocumen, people will go down to their favorite subscription model if at all >> thank you so much
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david from vita group. the u.s. house financial services committee is ready to subpoena the ftx founder sam bankman-fried if he doesn't answer questions next week maxine waters says he will need to cooperate the s.e.c. issued new guidance for the cryptocurrency dry. businesses may have to share if they have material exposure to firms which have gone bankrupt regulators are bracing for fallout from the collapse of crypto players including ftx and blockfi. blackstone has taken heat for withdrawals from the private reit it exceeded he prpreviously set
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limits the etf is down 26% year to date the blackstone president and chief operator officer john gray defended the plan and saying investors knew the reit had limits on redemptions. >> we set up the product as semi liquid because we knew there would be periods of volatility we didn't want to sell under pressure we put limitations in place. including a 5% cap in terms of quarterly liquidity and redemption what happened this year is we saw selling pressure from asia given the market moves there that led to some news articles and el the sevated levels of redemptions. the key is the performance has
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delivered and it is operating as we intended six years ago. we are proud of the performance and the structure. >> the breit story is interesting for blackstone that account for one-fifth of the fee based earnings blackstone stock is down 12% in last month people are concerned about the mismatch with public valuations and private valuations perhaps this is a sign of something more scary that was going onsurface. the ceo will come out and allay the concerns they are dealing with a liquid book which is cyclical they are relying on asset sales and continuing high rental yields to continue delivering the returns if the u.s. is headed toward recession, their
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portfolio is not going to be immune from that >> it is interesting to hear him talk about the private certify obvious public market and whether the blackstone valuation makes sense or lagging the coo in the interview said they sold a lot of property above prices trying to justify how they value and the hedges have generated gains and when it comes to public reits, they trade above asset value. trying to justify the value within the portfolio the other thing i would pick up from the interview is what he said about asia. a lot of the pressure came from asia you had a lot of news articles about that and then an elevated level of redemption. i wonder if the sentiment will change given the change in asia the last couple weeks. >> as an investor, and investing
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in these reits, you n know the redemption schedule is flexible. this is a halfway house between the private equity structure where there is a little bit of room for the windows for liquidity withdrawal it is interesting. investors invested and they knew exactly what the schedule looked like we have to cap it on a monthly basis. his messaging was the portfolio is still looking healthy it is impacting the stock. we will take a quick break still ahead on "street signs." deal denied on the microsoft takeover of activision-blizzard.
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welcome back to the show the ftc has sued to block
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microsoft's $69 billion takeover of activision-blizzard the ftc this would deny access to popular content microsoft says if the deal goes ahead, it not be the golden leader in gaming brad smith said he had given peace a chance, he looks forward to presenting microsoft's case in court steve kovach filed this report >> reporter: the ftc is suing as it lays out the gaming acquisition and using those to put exclusive titles on the platform the $7.5 billion studio which will be exclusive to microsoft's platform the fear is the same thing will happen if microsoft buys activision the call of duty franchise
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sony complained microsoft will take it way from rivals. microsoft has offered to put call of duty on rival platforms for ten years and willing to make that enforceable by the courts sony hasn't responded. yesterday, nintendo agreed to the deal and in the meantime, the ceo fired back in a letter to employees. we believe these arguments will win despite a regulatory environment focused on ideologyh industry brad smith making it clear they will fight it in court they tried to give peace a chance and offering concessions to the ftc the question is what additional concessions to they float to the ftc? it sounds like no more peace is on the horizon microsoft is ready for war
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>> certainly an interesting story to continue p watching. and a mixed picture for the final trading day of the week. green on the board for the dax similar story for italy. it has been an interesting week if you look at the last five trading days european equities are lower and fairly significantly stoxx 600 into today's session down 1.8%. here is the breakdown. ftse mib down 1% investors in europe bracing for the central bank meeting and the muted trade today is a function of investors in wait and see mode. in europe, the hang seng and hong kong has had a strong week.
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the reopening story has gathered space in china the hang seng up 6.6% week to da date. u.s. markets have followed the trend in europe. nasdaq down 3.3% week to date. s&p down 2.76% dow jones industrial average is 50 points lower. we have data from the u.s. ppi the real action is next week with the u.s. cpi and the f federal reserve meeting. u.s. futures are pointing to a modest rebound all three majors to end in positive territory the direction clearly higher let's talk about the ppi investors focusing on the ppi index which is expected to show
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manufacturing and inflation eased further last month it is one final piece policymakers see before the central bank meeting next week with cooling weekly jobless claims joumanna, one of the interestin features is it comes after the cpi print. we put more focus on the consumer price index, but this time around, the ppi is more important. >> i think as far as the fed is concerned what they are namely watching is the ppi numbers and inflation is actually hitting consumer spending. we are seeing signs certainly that consumer spending is beginning to fall back a bit on the back of the rise of inflation. we spoke about this at thanksgiving sales it looked all of the sales were
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higher, but real terms was looking like it was decelerating no surprise obviously given what is happening and how people's purses are getting hit it all boils down to how far the fed are willing to go and what sort of deceleration they need to see in the labor market and in order for them to say enough is enough. we are comfortable and we are putting the brakes on demand to the sufficient level to see inflation returning back to 2% that is a question we will get answered over the next few fed meetings if it looks like they are looking for 50 basis point hike. if the numbers continue to stay strong and we get another low cpi print, that could change >> it seems the labor market is what to watch here even if we do see a weakening in inflation pressure, that's great news when it comes to the fed
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and their ability to take a slightly softer approach to rate hikes, but it still doesn't mean the labor market will crack. the labor market is strong there are many experts who think it will take a painful recession to crack that labor market >> we certainly spoke about this at the beginning of the curve. the flattening with 2/10 the flatetest in 40 years henry dixon said the fact it is so inverted is quite telling it is usually a precursor to recession. is it a deep recession or a mild recession? so far if you listen to the comments out there from various ceos as early in the week we had brian moynahan saying he expects
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there to be a mild recession it won't be an extremely deep one. to henry's point early in the show a mild recession is tolerable. you want to avoid a deep recession. a deep and long recession. >> i think henry dixon from mangroup made an interesting point. mild recession is not one the community has not seen before. when we think recession, we think global financial crisis and eurozone debt crisis we don't think about something that is mild bringing back to the ppi print today to get investors ready for it the expectation is manufacturing inflation may have eased further last month what do we know about manufacturing so far the ism manufacturing print that we got index a couple of weeks ago was somewhat with gloomy it showed slowing there. in contrast to the ism services index which came out and triggered price action and
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concern because services side of things seems to be holding up well stateside >> it shows how data dependent we are central banks have done away with forward guidance. they are watching the data same in europe we have been a very big ecb meeting coming up. it will be central bank. fed, ecb and the market leaning to 50 basis points inflation is sitting hot we have bank of canada starting to slow down is this a sign of what other central banks? that is telling for direction when we get into q1 of next year definitely a big one coming up >> it is interesting to see in the lead-up to next week's meeting, the u.s. and european market is trading in lockstep. both the u.s. and europe regions
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have seen selling. on that note, u.s. futures all three majors set to open higher a modest rebound after the pull back yesterday we saw the nasdaq under perform yesterday. it sold off 1.1% the dow jones industrial average -- excuse me the nasdaq gained 1.1% the dow jones industrial average is up 40 and s&p up 8. it looks like we will build on the gains >> the big argentina match today. i'm going to be watching at 7:00 >> good look to you and your argentinean household. that is it for "street signs."
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it is 5:00 a.m. at cnbc global headquarters. here is your top "five@5." stocks snapping a losing streak. investors gear up for the fed's next decision day. also, crude is lower doing something for the first time since last december concerns that prices could spike again. and a wild week for tesla as concerns of musk splitting time with the ev maker and twitter. and the power hous

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