outshined the competitors. >> we'll monitor chris, we appreciate your time today. >> this, mike. appreciate it, too. just to wrap up the week, s&p ended up at a 3.54% loss still at the trading range it's been in for about a month. next week, big fed meeting big cpi report have a good weekend. that does it for "overtime". "fast money" starts now. >> right now on fast, markets bracing for a make or break week largest fed decision on tap for the year last one bet on a santa claus rally or bail after lulu's lemon last night, we'll dive into the retail sector to see what you should do with the stocks right now. later, streaming higher. shares of netflix climbing 45% in just the last two months.

if you sign up now, can you still get in on some of those gains? >> i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee. on the desk tonight, karen fireman here in studio same with bonnawin, steve grasso, julie beal, we note for us we're going to start with a rough end to the week in stocks. do you down over 300 points. the index shedding 3% since monday, locking in its worth five-day stretch of the quarter. s&p and nasdaq seeing bigger losses on a percentage basis as investors turn their attention to a very big week ahead we've got another read on inflation. after this morning's hotter than expected producer price report, november consumer prices ow on tuesday, just before the fed delivers its last policy decision of 2022 so, how do you position yourself as we head into this new week.

steve grasso, i'll send it to you first. >> yeah, is this looks like a setup that's been pretty typical, dom, where you see the market either rally right after the fed speaks or decline like we've seen leading into whenever we hear jerome powell speak some when you look at the charts, definitely weak, but cpi has most likely maxed out, so that means it's probably bullish for the overall mark, probably bullish for that santa claus rally. if you look at energy, even though long-term probably means that we're headed for a recession. shorter term that's bullish for consumers. we've seen energy just collapse. we've seen a lot of stocks collapse but they're still on that trading range, and they're still around the 100-day moving average gripping that. i think we're going to see a reall rally come next week, mid of the

next week. i have been call field goal a face-ripping rally, and being as though we've declined first, it's going to be even more of a face-ripping rally if we get it. >> karen, this is an interesting point to the seasonality factor. how did you feel today hotter than expected read on business level inflation the market seemed to shrug it off until the last couple of hours. was it a surprise that way >> to me it was a surprise we are so sensitive to any heat in the inflation data, for sure, the fed's back on, restrictive, higher for longer. i was very surprised that it was hot and i was surprised that the reaction wasn't way worse than this i mean, we have been getting a lot of noise, so yesterday or two days ago, i don't remember, there was the labor wage growth. that was done. you can point to a lot of things

that show recession is in the cards and on the flipside, you see a lot of things where, i don't know, this doesn't look -- maybe this is stagflation in the cards. i'm not quite sure i don't know what to make of it. i feel like the santa claus rally already happened last week was huge i think we're back to where we were november 30, so it was as if the first week of december never happened. >> julie, one of the thing we want tokey on as we look ahead the consume prices are done and dusted how much is the market going to be sensitized to a hot or maybe not as hot cpi print next week are we going to see a muted reaction like today if things were a little bit worse or better >> no, i think if anything the market is more expensive to the cpi than ppi, and it makes sense, it's a consumer driven economy, and the prices that hit consumers are the ones that matter longer term in terms of

being the economic engine of the economy. what i think is interesting is it's really clear there's no direction in the market. it's very emotional, and it's being driven primarily by what we think is going to happen at the fed. it's really hard for me to see any circumstances where we're cutting in 2023. i think we're going to hold at higher interest rates. if we're cutting that means things have gone really wrong. that ithings have gone really, really wrong that's not great for equity markets either. >> there's no way we're cutting any time this is an environment right now where the fed's made it clear, this is a credibility issue at this point you got to fight inflation there's nothing else you can do about it, and they've already put a target out there of roughly that 2% to 3% range, and we're nowhere near it. >> we're not i would tend to agree. there's no way -- i think people are looking for that narrative, and that speaks to the price we saw today. karen said something earlier when you looked at the ppi

number and said, it's hotter than expected but still the trajectory was in the right way, and i think that was the initial gut reaction people tended to have when you drilled down into the numbers you saw that energy was a massive detractor. but it's like playing whack a mole with the inflation readings now it's vegetables or financial services you see transpooration cool off. every time we have something that seems to abate, there's something else that proves to be inflationary, and i think that's what the fed is looking at, and i think that's why you saw the initial, okay, shrug off, and as people start toddy just that dynamic, that's when you so the market roll over. >> if you look at the way things shaped off, it's a broad base sell-off wasn't dramatic. talking fractional losses but still 3 hundredsome points call it .75% this is not something where

interest rates for a factor or tech valuations or energy prices it was more of a risk aversion type event. >> yeah, although there was some specific pockets of bad things lulu, which you touched on last night, was one of them but yeah, wasn't -- i don't know just sort of -- i just slowly lost money during the day. that was a -- you know, general lirk no disasters, other than lulu i don't make too much out of it. we're starting to -- the closer get to christmas, the volumes get lighter. the markets move more easily. >> you mentioned tech. a couple days ago, looking at this week, there's been this correlation between longer rates and tech performance, and we were talking about it last week. we were trying to determine, li listen, are these at odds? and you saw rates kind of come

off or back up depending on how you want to look ate and you didn't see technology really see that out performance, and it seems like that led to this risk-off posture we're starting to see right now. >> grasso, i think if you look at this, this could shape up to be a few weeks where it's like death by a thousand cuts is there anything you want to do in your mind positioning wise? or maybe keep some of that dry pouder and wait things out until the new year >> well, first of all, karen said she slowly lost money this is a market that has been taking people's money really rapidly, so to slowly lose money on a friday, i think, is probably an uptick >> it's a win. >> but just think about it on a friday just think about it on a friday. you have china that policies can change in a heart beat you have rush, trussia, the war with ukraine that could change in a heart beat, for the worse. so there's a lot of reason why

people want to be risk averse on a friday, dom, but there's a lot of reasons why people should want to get back into the market come tuesday and i think you're going to see the market take a different tempo. what we never talk about is quantitative tightening. that's 25 basis points of tightening even if he cuts by another 50, it's really 75 bps, dom, so this is a tightening environment we're in, and i don't think enough people talk about that. what would i want to do from now to the end of the year positioning. i think you have to be tax conscious. so if you want to sell some of your losses, if you want to put them against some of your gains if you have them, so i think we're going to see a lot of strategic positioning going to the end. >> one of the performers today was energy we're going to turn to that sector now benchmark prices getting within

8 cents of 70 bucks a barrel, something it hasn't done in nearly a year. the chart master here call for this move just about five weeks ago when he downloaded the overall sector for energy from overweight to an outright sell where does he think energy is heading now? let's bring in carter worth. the oil chart is predominant, trend to the downside. buzz it say that way >> oil itself is under a lot of pressure, and as we know, there is no telling, is oil worth this level per barrel whoever thought oil would go to negative $40 a barrel? who thought the ten-year yield would go this is a ratio chart. it's a relative performance line, and it's s&p energy sectors' relative performance to the s&p. let's put in some lines. so, the first -- look at that trend line is that precise?

remarkably precise final of the charts look where it struck its head we hit that line to the penny, and since that moment -- that's november 4th energy is down 1,000 base points s&p is up 450. you're talking -- and i don't think the relative underperformance after such a move off the low let's look at the xle. that's the etf you can trade here it matches the s&p 500 sector no drawings, no license, no judgments. let's put some arrows in what do we know? it's responded beautifully we have a perfect double top, and i think ultimately we'll get back to the uptrend line in effect since 2020. >> okay, so those lines are pretty obvious when carter lays them out that way. thank you for. that we'll see new a few moments on "options action." steve grasso, we're getting close to your $65 per barrel oil

call, and we got to give you props for that you made that call back when bench prices were $120, 125 bucks a barrel are you still holding on to the short position >> think about it this way -- energy was really overextended, and everyone thought energy was going to go to the moon, and energy always has these fits and starts so when you look at exxon mobil, just take that one specifically. carter talk about the xle. exon mobile -- all those names rolled over. exxon mobil, back in 2014, it didn't make a new high from its 2014 high until this year, and now it's collapsed basically to that level again so the only thing that gets in my way with that $65 a barrel oil call is that the government is going to be refilling the spr

around $70 but i think it's a massive head wind that they're fighting now with anti-momentum to the downside, so i think we could see that $65 a barrel oil, and if you have profits in energy, take them. >> julie, last word on oil is this a bounce you think we can buy on this relative underperformance >> no, i think there's -- you can see the level of declines. it's pretty challenging to see why it would be supported from him, but i agree with steve. i think you have a $70 floor with the u.s. economy, buying back and replenishing, but going forward it's hard to see what the direction is going to be. >> all right energy trade in a nutshell thanks very much, guys coming up, our trade we are making their list and checking it twice for a special holiday edition of trade it or fade it this time, we're going to wrap it or scrap it

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all right, welcome back to "fast money. there's only 15 shopping days left until christmas, as you can see on the countdown clock, and according to the latest university of michigan report, the consumer is feeling pretty good the december read on sentiment rise even more than expect as inflation worries ease still, many retail stocks struggled this week. shopfy, etsy, which had been on a tear recent weeks pulled back sharply since monday target, dollar tree following suit but are these sale prices a good deal or too good to be true? what better way to find out than with a little game of -- >> wrap it or scrap it [ laughter ] >> that's right, it's wrap it or scrap it, the holiday theme cousin to america's favorite game let's jump right in. target shares. missing the bull's eye this week karen, are we going to wrap it or scrap it? >> we like the royal we?

this is a little bit of a nuance scrap it for taxes, and then you can -- >> aw! >> then you can rewrap it 31 days in the future. >> bonawyn. >> karen's stealing my gifts i'm wrapping this one. >> yay >> it's a would you rather when you're drilling down into the retail sub sector, this is one of the best names there. they have had their inventory issues, and you see this one allows the higher end consumer to roll down and still shop there, and they're very diversified some amongst the consumer discretionary names i think this is one of the best performers. >> shopfy is sliding this week steve grasso, what's your take wrap it or scrap it? >> i'm going to wrap this one. i'm going to let the kids give their little scream. >> yay >> so this one has bottomed back in october, and just on a momentum level, dom, this stock

has been ratcheting higher if you look at the moving averages, the 50 and the 100 are starting to turn up. the 200 is starting to flatten out. the ascending trend line is still in tact. it looks like a minorbreak, bu it's still in tact plus, think about what people are doing during the pandemic? they're getting a side hustle and shopify helps them get their side hustle. i think you're still good to be here. >> all right julie, what do you think >> it's a scrap it for me. sorry. >> aww >> the real strength of the shopify during the peak was it allowed small businesses to compete against amazon were amazon not such a formidable competitor, i don't think shopify would be what it is i worry about the small businesses, and i don't think they're going to be as strong a customer as they were before. >> i like it good debate going on with these

names. let's move on to dollar tree down in the dumps this week. bonawyn, wrap it or scrap it >> scrapping this one. i know it's a lower end consumer, but i'm going scrap it. >> dollar tree is a scrap. strooef grasso, what do you think? >> this is a wrap for me i'm going wrap this one. >> yay >> this stock is definitely prone to swings of $20 to $50, and if you look at it on a chart, it look like it's pretty right for a swing to the upside of about $30. >> all right last but not least, etsy giving back some recent gains this week sticking with you now, julie, is this a wrap it or a scrap it >> you know grumpy me. it's a scrap it. >> aww >> sorry i just don't -- again, same idea, i'm really concerned about the consumer and,s this the most discretionary of consumer

discretionary stocks. >> i will say, did buy something from etsy for the holidays. >> a lot of people do. >> wrap it or scrap it >> if i had to pick, wrap it. >> yay >> it's coming a little bit. it's not cheap my any means. englewood cliffs, was this made with helium? was that how they made the voices fantastic. >> hour reese, we love it that's his kids >> really? that's great thank you for this edition of wrap it or scrap it, trade it or fade it. call me up on the show netflix, wall street betting big. we'll bring you the details coming up next you're watching "fast money" live frothm e nasdaq market site here in times square we're back after this break. don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin.

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all right, welcome back to "fast money. to our call of the day it's netflix stock jumping by 3% on not one, but two bullish analyst notes. netflix best large cap idea for 2023 heightening its price target from 300 bucks to $400 a share bonawyn, could net flick emerge as a marquee stock for investors in 2023? >> 2023, yes i think the revenue drivers they mention ready compelling a lot of that is already priced in the stock you've seen this thing rally aggressively since this summer so i think i'd wait for the tax situation, and then 2023, dip my toes. >> karen, this is a stock you won't. >> yes, it is, and i agree with

what bonawyn is saying i feel like the last $100 were no ads supported nice ride that was fun now it's going to be as ir irritating i think as the ad supported tier when you watch a show i don't think it's straight up from here at all it's not cheap it's great company they won and they'll continue to win streaming, but it's hard to -- i'm sort of surprised. $100 up? that seems aggressive. >> it's a ot. >> it's a bold call. >> now let's go to julie what do you think? is this a stock you want to own given it was a $700 stock not that long ago? >> it's great to say the stock is still down 50% from the beginning of the year, but that assumes the price at the beginning of the year was the right one, which i think we can all agree wasn't valuation is really important here, and my concern is that in a tougher economy, are people just going trade down into that lower tier i think the lower tier is going

to protect them and keep their subscribers, but i don't think it's going to expand their opportunity set materially. >> there's the call. thanks very much, guys, for that it is now time on this friday for final trades let's go around the horn and start with steve grasso. >> i'm going to give you a two fer. netflix is going to trade up $30. go with that first dollar tree, i'm looking for a nice healthy, ripe pop for the upside. >> julie, what do you think? >> i like the business tyler technologies i think enterprise software is going to be harder next year, so i like exposure to the government i think that's a better customer. >> bonawyn. >>i think we're all defensivel positioned but you don't want to run for the exits, so if you want some retail exposure, target. >> last but certainly not least, karen finerman. >> we didn't really get to it today. lulu lemon, i sold my stock this

morning. it was priced for absolute perfection, they didn't deliver perfection the inventory numbers not delightful for sure. so i'm going to say sayonara if anyone is thinking of buying this one, i would way three days >> down 13% so far today thanks so much guys for the panel. that does i on "fast money" but don't go anywhere. we've got "options action" coming up next keep it right here a lot more trading stuff to come we'll see you in just a bit.

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it's friday, and that means it's time for "options action. i'm dominic chu in for melissa lee, live from the nasdaq market site here in times square. right now, sifting through the financials from a regional route to a hidden set of gems, could this be a way to ensure gains. and betting on the big dad by banks, spokeswomaner player in the new year and later on an open house options trade. we'll hit the nail on the head and open the door on the home builders with me tonight, carter worth,