data and the latest interest rate decision from the fed we get you ready for the week ahead. elon musk is relaunching twitter blue the blue check mark subscription service. if you buy it on your iphone, it costs an extra $3 a month. the latest wrinkle in the collapse of ftx. the massive unpaid tab at jimmy buffett's margaritaville resort. they are related >> distantly >> it is monday, december 12th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasdaq

market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. this morning, you will see at this point modest green arrows some advances. friday, the markets were down after hotter than expected inflation numbers. s&p futures up close to 11 nasdaq up 37 if you are watching the treasury market because this is the one that keeps whipsawing. 3.529% janet yell even speaking ou about the economy and here is what she had to say on cbs' "60 minutes" last night. >> what is 2023 going look like for the average consumer >> i believe inflation will be lower. i am very hopeful that the labor market will remain quite healthy so that people can feel good

about their finances and their personal economic situation. first of all, shipping costs have come down delivery lags, which were very long, those have shortened >> gas prices down >> gas prices are way down i think we will see a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead. >> it will take a year >> i believe by the end of next year, you will see much lower inflation if there is no an unanticipated shock. >> secretary yellen reiterating she doesn't believe a recession is necessary to bring down inflation. i thought it was interesting to hear her say it would take until the end of 2023 to have the much, much lower inflation she has been consistent the past couple weeks and months now. >> it was a good piece i watched.

i watched because cbs always has a game that goes late and doesn't come on until late it was not the case yesterday. nothing else was on at the time. >> what a compliment >> i did watch w i saw a couple of those people down -- was it off the record? i did see bill down there. actually saw bill at the train station. >> bill who? >> bill whitaker new this morning, microsoft announced a partnership with the stock exchange and took a 10% stake. the partnership involves next generation data and cloud computing products microsoft will migrate the data platform and other key tech infrastructure into the cloud which is built on azure. it will spend a minimum of $2.8

billion over ten years on cloud-related products with microsoft. microsoft executive president scott guthrie will join the stock exchange board as non executive director and amgen buying horizon they'rra therapeutics it treats autoimmune and inflammatory diseases. one you are familiar with is thyroid related eye conditions it doesn't seem like a huge market, but big revenue. it should add -- not just that drug -- the acquisition should add $4 billion in revenue by 2024 to amgen which has interestingly some patent expirations. not on the ones i remember well. they are big in osteo and had

other successes. those are now around long enough to go off patent. >> i remember amgen being a small company. it has $150 billion market cap it has grown up in a big, big way. >> may be a bio-tech >> you don't think huge. >> i remember when it was a split adjusted $1 and went to $1,000 i remember watching that promise of bio-technology come through right before your eyes genentech and amgen. twitter is relaunching twitter blue at a higher price for apple users. users can subscribe for $8 a month or ios for $11 a month elon musk complained last month about the 30% fee that the iphone maker charges software

developers for in-app purchases. twitter said it will replace the official label with the gold check mark for businesses. later in the week, a gray check for government accounts. sub scribers will temporarily lose their blue check mark until their account is reviewed. >> news you can use for people doing this from home you can get -- you can pay the same amount, from your iphone. >> if you go through the web with >> you have to go to the web page >> don't buy through the app store. >> don't try to use apple pay. this is all about apple pay. a lot of the stories say they are charging one thing for apple users. >> like using a credit card in the store or cash. >> you can use your phone and get the same subscription at the cheaper price. you have to decide you are not using apple pay or in app.

>> it is no more than charge for more a credit card over cash >> it is what spotify might do there are other services obviously that now are trying to migrate you to the web so they can bypass the fee as you discussed. >> do you use apple pay sometimes? >> sometimes >> i do. >> or paypal i have a bunch of different things >> my daughter we'll be getting coffee. she will say i got this. this is amazing. watch this nothing ever -- i never see a bill i got it on apple pay. is that how it works >> welcome to 2022 >> he is paying the bill on all of it. >> you get the bills that's what he is p complaining about. >> there is a credit card

associated with it somewhere >> yeah. it's mine. it's associated with it. >> when you are cutting that off? >> i like everybody to be happy. >> smart man >> i do, andrew. you know, you still -- >> you want to fund my apple pay? >> no. you think that will happen you tell your kids >> it's hard to cut the cord you have a few more years. >> he wants everybody to be happy. >> everybody at home he means. he doesn't care about us >> twins can be on their own at 14 how many years is that >> okay. >> aren't they >> we're getting up there. >> are they already on their own? >> oh, i got evntrepreneurs in y family >> you will not cut them off at college. >> she's out of college.

when do they get thrown off your insurance? >> 26. >> i would say that would not happen then either >> start paying the tab? >> i'm kidding i'm not saying -- >> i'm not pushing for it. good to know i'm rooting for blakehere. >> i know you are. he sticks it to me now to a story in "the new york post" that says executives in alameda research racked up $55,000 in unpaid bills in margaritaville they were staying at the place alameda, of course, is the ftx-linked crypto trading firm owned by sam bankman-fried employees stayed for weeks or months in 20 suites at the resort and hadn't paid their bill when the firm collapsed jimmy buffett told me it is true count him among the creditors.

tomorrow, sam bankman-fried is set to testify before the house finances committee it will hear from newly appointed ceo john wray and we will have jay clayton in the next hour to discuss this story. andrew, you said he will testify tomorrow, probably remotely? >> oh, yeah. >> we may never see these guys in person. >> i don't think they ever are they are all based somewhere else >> avoid the country >> what is the best place to go? >> somewhere where they don't have an extradition. >> what is the best place? >> the truth is on the sam bankman-fried of it all, he is in a place where you can 100% be extra extradited if and when there is a case to be brought, there is a case to be brought and they can get him.

the only difference is if you charge people with something you extradite him for, you need all of the charges you can't add 10,000 charges after the fact it makes it harder or more complicated. you have to get all of your ducks in a row as a prosecutor a lot of people say why isn't -- oh, madoff -- i'm not saying he is madoff. allegedly, there are people who speculate. madoff went to jail in 24 hours. yes, because he turned himself in why is this guy out on the street if you want to bring the case and you have to decide whether you have all of the right charges and what not i imagine the doj are others are looking into this. >> they don't want to lose it. >> you don't want to lose the case >> you have to bring the best possible case. >> we have comparisons we don't mean everything is like madoff

like last week, we were talking about guilty i said o.j people think i'm calling -- i'm not calling o.j. i'm saying there are times when the defense team knows as well as everybody else. you stillgive them the best defense you possibly can although you have a good idea. you can't say i'm not representing this guy. he's guilty. >> you can somebody has to represent him. you don't have to be the person. >> right coming up, up next, inflation in focus this week as we await tomorrow's cpi data and it is fed week a lot of fed weeks we'll tell you what to expect after the break. later, we talk to heather boushey. we will talk about the interview last night with secretary yellen you are tcngsqwkwahi "ua box" on cnbc

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are on this week's squawk planner, we get the november cpi data at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow write that down. federal reserve has a two-day policy meeting with the announcement on wednesday afternoon. on thursday, we get weekly jobless claims and november retail sales data. earnings are light this it week

we hear in oracle and adobe and darden restaurants our next guest says the fed fund rate is irrelevant joining us is mike kotopolis mike, you have really interesting comments like heads, we win, tails, we lose the long end of the curve is a buy eeither way, right it is buy if we go into recession and it's a buy if inflation cools. you don't expect a ten-year to make new highs >> i think that's right, joe i think it would be difficult for the 10-year to go back up to 4.3% or 4.5% where it was before what drives the long end of the yield curve? primarily it is growth growth is obviously slowing. economic growth is on the downturn it doesn't mean we're in

recession today or maybe not going into recession economic growth is clearly slower than it was six months ago or nine months ago that is positive for long-term treasury the difference between today and a year ago is growth was strong a year ago versus now. you have inflation the other component of the treasury curve that has peaked. the irony is the longer it stays elevated, it increases the possibility the fed will have to decrease growth more long-term treasuries look really attractive here. over the next 6 to 12 months, you will see healthy returns >> hotter inflation or cooler inflation both mean that yields stay about where they are, is that your view that we get back to 4 >> 4 is a little tough

i'm sorry. joe, go ahead. >> do you think on the 10-year we have seen the highs >> the tricky thing about treasuries today and all markets really is liquidity is so forward. ma making short-term calls is difficult. could we get to 4? of course, we could get to 4 it could happen in a market at the end of the year. would it be shocking i don't think it would be shocking i don't think it would be long lasting. it would be a short phenomenon to lead us back down to 3.5. this is not a position that we expect to, you know, work for three months or six months this is something that could work well into 2024. once the fed starts cutting, which as you mentioned earlier, is not any time soon, but when the fed starts to cut, you will see decreases in the 10-year and beyond this is a longer-term trade that

has time to play out >> you say stay liquid you think credit spreads are too tight? as the economy slows, those will blow up? other than the long end of the curve, stocks, that's not your thing. it doesn't sound like you recommend risk assets. >> no. all of our equity shows we are entering an earnings recession think of the three things we focus on profits, liquidity and sentiment and valuation. u.s. markets are about to enter into earnings recession. liquidity is tightening. the market will stay tight the valuations are not particularly attractive. that is not a great recipe for equities yeah, this is not a good market

for risk whether stock or bonds credit in particular treasuries on the credit side, spreads are way too tight. the credit market has their heads in the cloud this is not a good environment for credit lending standards are tighter than the financial crisis. costs are higher than they have been in some time and earnings are about to fall. that decreases the ability to pay interest on the debt ultimately credit spreads need to widen more. >> did you really say this has been rba's thesis for a while? rich bernstein advisers? is that what you said? >> yeah. you know, joe. >> i'm so proud of him rba. i'll start using that. rba has been saying. do you use that? let me does you this, has he been pushing you to use that >> you should see how much he pushes us to use that.

no, not at all >> fbi dlj. that is amazing. rba. that is really -- >> rba advisers. >> i knew him before rba just an rba. he has no middle the name. you know that, right he doesn't i gave him one. >> what is that, joe >> effen how many rich bernsteins are in the country? look in the white pages. people don't do that >> he goes by rba. how many rbas are there? >> he needed one and i gave him one. effen. coming up, latest on china's easing of covid rules.

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welcome back to "squawk box. chinese officials are facing a u-turn with the decision of the omicron variant which is in line with the flu with the infection rarely are reaching the lungs. it is the latest in the line of officials downplaying the virus. before we head to break. a couple of things coupa software halting due to pending news reports say the company is in

talks to buy toma bravo. we will give you the news if it hits the wires. when come back, crude prices are lower now than the start of the year we will dig into the oil prices when we come back big business at the box office the ceo of paramount pictures wilt will join us in the 8:00 >> announcer: executive edge sponsored by at&t business at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure but se we need a reliable way to help keep everyone connected from wherever we go. well at at&t we'll help you find the right wireless plan for you. so, you can stay connected to all your drivers and stores on america's most reliable 5g network. that sounds just paw-fect. terrier-iffic i labra-dore you round of a-paws at&t 5g is fast, reliable and secure for your business.

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good morning welcome back to "squawk box" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. checking the futures screen across board up 68 points dow and nasdaq up 38 treasuries are kind of quiet this morning bitcoin below 17,000 there's oil. becky. wti actually falling to its

lowest level of the year last week under $72 a barrel now it is 7$70.49 for a look at crude, we want to bring in amrita sen. amrita, if you look at this from the supply side of things, you anticipate we are looking at higher numbers you have putin threat ening to cut production and opec threatening to do the same what is happening here is this a china story at this point? >> it has been a china story for most of the last couple months, but china is starting to relax its covid-19 strict policies i will say one thing that while we are not expecting china to reopen overnight, but we still think the case counts are very high and hospital beds are c cons constraint they are on a clear path to reopening. we are about to raise the chinese forecast for q1 2023

again, heading in the right direction. becky, i will say the last couple of weeks, this has been posit positioning. every day you see oil prices up in the morning in asia and european trading hours 2:00 p.m. london time as soon as the u.s. opens, we see massive pressure on crude prices we understand some big funds are liquidating as well. we have lots of things going on. liquidity is super low sure, we had pressure on oil prices where they have headed over the last few weeks is just f funda fundamentals >> we show the chart from january and the contract is down 20%. i don't think anybody, but it catches me by surprise by any of this what do you see with the forward look at contracts at this point? >> i think they are too mi

mis-priced if we are talking about china reopening, imagine the pent-up demand when we reopened in the west it has been enormous chinese oil demand has been bottled up for three years now china has a huge mult iplier effect 20% of thailand flights linked to china china reopening will be very, very bullish for oil markets not expecting that to be overnight, but the course of next year, this is the biggest driver of oil prices. >> what you have done when you look at middle of next year? where do you anticipate wti? are we still talking triple digits >> i think so. especially at this price set i just got to houston and we will see clients here over the course of the week

at $70, i'm sure they are not happy. the same for other equities as well like you mentioned, opec is vigilant enough. if you think fundamentals deter deteriorated, they will step in. do to tnot forget the spr will e to an end at the end of the month. >> do you believe putin when he says he will cut production and not sell to anybody with this cap? can he do that without seriously damaging his own economy >> i say that is the principle by which they stand. the west doesn't get to set the price at which we are selling our oil or whatever it is. that is what they are trying to say. having said that, we firmly believe that india and whchina s not sticking to the price cap. russia will continue to sell oil to the east. this is more an issue with the west you have the g7 countries and

nobody has said yes to the privapric cap. that allows the oil to continue flowing. you might tactically turn off things here. particularly to the west rather than the consumers in the east. >> brian sullivan was reporting this morning that germany was getting 50% of its power from coal and coal byproducts that's the dirty little secret about all of these issues. you think you are transitioning to new, clean stuff. when push comes to shove, you are in a situation you are firing up old coal plants. >> it has been an energy transition going backwards for sure the issue right now is the russia crisis which has been going on exposed how reliant europe has been on russia. look, i've been a very kind of strong -- i've been very vocal about this we cannot say we will turn off oil and gas overnight.

there's too much demand. there's too much population growth around the world to say that yes, there will be a push toward green energy, but that also comes with the a sossociated co of killing off industry. what is happening in europe right now is industrialization that is after turning to the u.s. which is benefitting massively from it because president biden put together policies incentivizing industry to move over this is a huge wake-up call for europe and i do think, again, the grand scheme of things with green energy and realization for policymakers that these changes will not happen overnight and we swung too far overnight. no to fossil fuels and yes to green energy it will cost us industry and jobs. >> what will be the one thing to mess up your forecast of thinking we get back to triple digit levels by wti? is it recession in the united states and beyond?

>> we already have a mild recession in the u.s. baked into the numbers. we have severe recession in europe bake nd into the numbers for me, it is china. if they don't turn back to strict covid policies, that will kill the market. again, supplies are uncertain. that is where opec will intervene and cut more i think china will be the most important factor to watch out for next year. >> amrita, thank you we will see you soon. coming up, an update on nasa's moon mission after yesterday's successful splashdown of the orion capsule. later, we speak with heather boushey about the wednesday fed decision and expectation for tomorrow's inflation print cpi. remember, you can watch or listen to us live any time on

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welcome back u.s. equity futures in the green. we told you about these. i'll tell you about these again. 65 on the dow. nasdaq up 42 s&p up 12. update on the nasa moon mission. sp splashed down in the pacific

completing the 26-day space flight margaret brennan was on it >> fast recovering now here on this set >> is it hard? gravity? >> i'm getting my legs and wits about me right now. >> that is not true. i was misinformed. >> i was not 12:40 p.m. eastern on sunday orion capsule splashed down off the coast of baja. completing the artemis moon mission. it hurtled to earth at mach 1. a final test, a crucial test before astronauts climbed on board as soon as 2024. the uncrewed mission went 1.4 million miles. it reached the farthest point in

space. the extraordinarily successful mission is good news for nasa. it cost $40 billion and counting according to the nasa auditor. it is good news for lockheed and boeing that makes the rocket that launched orion and northrup and many acontractors involved 50 years to the day after the apollo moon landing, why go back the program rolled out says there are deposits of water on the moon meaning humans can live there and there are other resources. >> anything that impacted the moon billions of years ago is right where it was billions of years ago. we can find large deposits of platinum metals on the surface of the moon. that would be transformational for commercial exploration, but

transformational, really, for the balance of power on earth if the wrong people were to take advantage of that. >> perhaps part of the reason we see so many countries invest in lunar exploration. china and russia signalled it will restart the lunar efforts meantime, here in the u.s., nasa awarded a $3.2 billion contract on friday for more rockets nasa is looking for more from a team led by blue origin. a lot of commercial efforts. a launch yesterday by the company called ispace to the moon >> it is unstoppable that progress. things are happening quickly we ahave to do it. >> i never understood why we

los lost it. >> you know the first radio message was sent 1902 ten years goes quickly that is 12-year period before then, you had no idea what was -- you were an ocean apart from knowing anything. we could be on mars in 100 years. >> yes sooner i think to the point of artemis, you will see humans in place in potentially, if all goes according to plan, in a permanent way. americans with a space station around the moon in the next decade then you can build the infrastructure to go to mars >> i think i want to go on the metaverse. i want to teleport there with my goggles on that will happen once people go up there, they will get the 360 video and you can live up there.

>> i see what it does to your face just they were doing the g-force on how it aged them. i'll stay here. >> i'm experience it with an atmosphere around me with oxygen if i absolutely need it. i want to see what it is like. i'm afraid i'm afraid i'm afraid to go where there's no air >> that's what is interesting about the moon the idea you have h2o. the quantities of resources that could enable a more sustainable human habitat. >> what are the rules up there this there? do they all agree? >> you have an outer space treaty that dates back 60 or 70 years. it is out dated. artemis that pushed the u.s.li

work the resources could be mined on the lunar surface easily the way the former nasa administrator laid it out to me is it is the way to think about it is fishing in the ocean nobody owns the ocean, but what you pull out of the ocean as a fisherman is something you can own and sell >> it is like the new wild west. >> little bit. >> morgan, we have not seen you back here in person since you came back from your own adventures it is great to have you back. >> thanks for having me on set >> i think what you are doing at home is tougher. >> work is less work than home >> nice to be back where they give you coffee. >> coffee. >> great to have you back. very good to see you when we come back, we head down to atlanta. john bryant will talk about how people coping with record high prices

we have a big event taking place down there today. reminder, you can get the best of "squawk box" on your favote pcariodst app and listen anytime. "squawk box" is coming back after this

new this morning, rivian said it's pausing plans to manufacture electric commercial vans they believe focusing on the consumer business and the existing commercial business are the best near-term opportunities to maximum value for rivian. the company signed a memorandum of understanding to build electric vans in europe. shares down by 4.5% this morning. >> juul labs had agreed to a

broad legal settlement the e-cigarette maker will pay up to $1.7 billion over accusations that the company targeted underage users with its marketing and sales tactics. the settlement will resolve much of the legal liability that it pushed juul to the brink of bankruptcy. and after the producer price index rose last week, economists are awaiting the consumer price index that's coming out on tuesday. join us right now, john hope brian, founder and ceo of operation hope he joins us this morning for atlanta where he's gearing up for a very big annual conference of his the hope global forum annual meeting. it just started last night, i believe, and you have a huge lineup of guests, john we're going to talk about that as well. how much is going to be threaded throughout so many of the

conversations that you're having over the next couple of days >> well, thanks for having me, andrew, becky, everybody, joe. it's -- you know, it is, of course, the backdrop of every conversation because it affects who travels. it affects what they pay for gas to get here. it effects their ability to pay for totals and these are folks with -- many of them, we're like the davos for the working class. that sort of pulsization, energy, making the economy work for all. you think in this current environment, andrew, that this would be a showstopper because inflation is still very stubborn i mean, it has to be the measure of grit that we had a line around the corner yesterday two hours before early bird registration around the corner. it crashed the registration system i came downstairs a moment ago

a single mother sitting there, had been there since 6:00 a.m., waiting to register. she just -- she's all in it defies logic. you have issues on the one hand that should be headwinds that keep people from leaning in and keep people pretty much down and distressed right now, but a little bit of hope and a little bit of a business plan seems to turn everything around and a little bit of an opportunity. >> which is worse. higher unemployment or higher inflation, in your mind. >> oh, higher unemployment and i think less akccess to capital and credit the new silver rights is as much education you can shove down your throat, access to credit. when you don't have those things, being able to write a check or cash one, employment or employer, then all bets are off.

the lights go off in america in your brain i think if you had that, you can outrun -- people are making more of a living wage these days also they're seeing -- i guess the answer is, andrew, they're seeing opportunity in front of them and that's what they're holding on to. that's more powerful than inflation. let's take the medicine right now. >> you have the pulse of 4,000 people down there today and tomorrow and it's a remarkable event that you put together. i'm sorry i couldn't be there in person this year but when you think what's happening in this country, we were watching janet yellen on "60 minutes" last night, she thinks inflation is coming down, that there won't be a hard landing. what are you seeing? do you think it's worse or better than we think >> i think that we need to go ahead and take the rest of the medicine that the fed is dishing out. i think inflation is coming down slowly gas prices are coming down slowly

i see commodity prices either stabilizing or coming down slowly i don't see them continue to go up i think that is a measure of hope as we go into the end of the year i think people are feeling that by mid 2023, we're going to be stabilized and the economy is going to be ready to pivot towards something positive that's the vibe, energy you get. not just the attendeeswho are workforce, but the ceos and leaders as well. >> and, john, you attract quite the lineup of leaders. tell us what you have on tap over the next couple of days and i know frank holland is with you is going to bring us news throughout the program. >> we're missing you, andrew yes, he's doing a great job. becky mentioned the moon and what opportunities exist there and i think she said it's 1800s all over again that's applicable to this as well 1800s was the -- after the civil war was the reconstruction period and it was doing well.

it was putting america back together with everybody contributing and then of course politics and folks who are obstructionists stopped the progress i think we have a shot of that at all over now to get everybody into the economy so the color is not white or black or red or blue, it's green and we have the ceo from walmart, he's here the ceo of delta air lines, ceo of paypal, he's here, ceo of iheart radio, he's here, a bunch of other ceos, they're traveling here physically. the ceo of pfizer. you have leaders like jakes and ambassador andrew young who was here with dr. king six years ago and, of course, you have entertainment leaders like charlamagne tha god. it's for billions, millions all in the same place looking for

opportunity for all. it's quite inspiring every race >> john, we got to wish you well we wish you a lot of luck over the next couple of days. you don't need it. but we're looking forward to seeing all that comes out of it. we also should tell our viewers, got a programming note, we will hear from walmart ceo doug mcmillon, he's going to join our audience from the hope global forums meeting that's happening today on tech check in the 11:00 argue with frank holland. >> when we come back, we're going to get you ready for this week's fed meeting plus, we'll talk to jay clayton about the latest chapter stonhe collapse of ftx and sbf's teimy which is scheduled for tomorrow "squawk box" will be right back.

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...comes the legendary cat with 9 lives. that means a lot hmm, hmm, 8 lives. 7, 6 5, 4 3, 2. you are down to your last life. i am not really a math guy. rated pg. good morning investors gearing up for a big week inflation and the fed in focus for investors. treasury secretary janet yellen saying inflation will be much lower by the end of 2023 her comments and reaction from market watcher. and microsoft is preparing for a battle with the ftc over

its deal to buy activision blizzard we'll talk to an enforcer about who will win the second hour of "squawk box" begins right now ♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc live at the market site in time square i'm andrew ross sorkin along with becky quick and joe kernen. take a look at u.s. equity futures at this hour we're going to show you where things stand nasdaq up 31 points and the s&p 500 up about ten points. also show you treasury yields if we could we're going to look at the ten-year note. you're looking at 3.527. the two year at 4.327. oil, right now, wti crude sitting at $70.43.

come down here and then finally crypto, we're understand 17,000 when it comes to bitcoin just marginally. $16,988. flirting with that $17,000 number it is official as of moments ago, coupa software is being acquired for $81 per share this, the pequity partners have been talking about buying it it's up there on the screen. 21%. this is actually a little bit left to go if you want to play the game there. >> take a look at dom chu. >> joe, becky, andrew, another deal that has gotten confirmation this morning from the companies involved is a massive one in pharmaceuticals and biotech.

that's for horizon therapeutics. they're up substantially over the last week or so. this after horizon therapeutics has agreed to be acquired by amgen. horizon therapeutics up about 15%. other people rumored to be involved involve janssen, also santa fe but $116 is the agreed-upon price. it's a 26, $27 billion deal. 28-plus if you factor in the debt that's involved and being assumed. this is a big push for horizon's drug pipeline which involves a lot of potential cures for things like autoimmune diseases, also inflammatory diseases rare ones as well. it's a big deal to watch in the premarket trade. watching what's happening right now with salesforce.

the company and its employees could be bracing for another round of layoffs also, a cost push -- cost-cutting push by the company itself and management changes that we've seen at the top over there as well. salesforce shares are flat in the premarket trade. it's been an underperformer over the last year. down 50% also a dow component a lot of influence in the markets. one interesting note here, this is about our parent company comcast. i'll point that out right now and get the disclosure right off of that. comcast shares just about flat but morgan stanley analysts have claimed that comcast is their top pick in 2023 they think that the valuations is finding some support here at these current levels and they believe that their presence and capacity in broadband for households will expand given some of their extending plans. among the reasons why comcast shares could be in focus right now, $35.31 right now in the premarket. again, a top pick over at morgan

stanley. i'll send things back over to you. >> you don't need to be so shy about that news. >> it's our parent company i get paid by them. >> if morgan stanley said it, it's not -- >> it is fact. and right now comcast shares -- >> it wasn't -- it wasn't second top choice or third choice it was actually the top pick i think you said. >> yes, in cable and internet. >> amazing when do we care about golf again? when things kick off i think it will be after the century tournament of champions. >> i will always talk about golf with you and the -- >> they're advertising augusta already and it's never too soon. >> people on my twitter feed have countdown clocks. >> we still got that up. all right. let's move on. thank you.

still have the comcast thing see you later. the fed is going to be kicking off its last two-day fed meeting of the year tomorrow, ed ahead of that we have results of the final cnbc survey. steve, good morning. >> good morning, andrew. yeah, the fed has seen a hike in 50 basis points in adding another 75 next year and causing what two-thirds of the respondents to the cnbc fed chairman will be a recession 50 this week the new rate is going to be 4.25 and 4.5. the peak rate is seen as 5.15% the final hike comes in april and the fed cruises at that rate for nine months. here's the outlook from this group.

388 now goes to 438. 5.15 is the peak race. and some adjusting going on towards the end of the year and rate cuts through 2024, ending in 3.08. the recession outlook, 61% think there's going to be a recession in the next year the average start date is in june of 2023 that is, by the way, two months later than the prior survey and we've seen that in some of the wall street forecasts, pusng it down the road average length is a long one 15 months with 67% believing it will be moderate and about 33% think it's going to be mild. here's the gdp outlook you can see two quarters of negative growth built in in q-2 and q-3. that's a quarter later for the two negative quarters there. here's a little bit of optimism. does the fed tighten too much? that's 59% -- down from 71%.

is it just right and there's that contingent of optimists right now. 24% think the fed gets it just right. it had been higher in the past and does the fed tighten too little, 15%, down from 20. a little more optimism right there. recession remain it is base case there's that contingent believing the fed might get it right. the outlook could change tomorrow with a hotter than expected cpi andrew >> okay. steve liesman, we appreciate it. we will see what mr. powell says later this week. i'm waiting for your questions, what you're going to ask >> me too. >> he doesn't want to reveal -- give away his hand. >> no, no, no. really, andrew, a lot depends on how hawkish or dovish he is or what we can learn from his opening statement and from the fed statement about the outlook.

one of those things that you could have make a game-time decision on -- especially something like this. remember, last time, the statement was more dovish and he came out guns blazing on the hawkish side i think the questioning was along those lines, the difference between the statement and what i thought was the chairman's morehawkish view. >> that's good you're going to pivot based on the news just like the fed thanks, steve. we'll see you later. >> exactly when we come back, ftx founder sam bankman-fried agreeing to testify before the house financial services committee tomorrow we'll speak to jay clayton next about what congress could be asking plus, treasury secretary janet yellen talks recession and inflation. that's when "squawk box" returns. >> thousands of people were being laid off and you tried to remind everybody that this is not about statistics

>> i think i said they're [ bleep ] people and i wanted people that work for me to take seriously the harm misery atth was being experienced by all too many americans. >> announcer: "squawk box" is sponsored by bitwise the world's leader in crypto index funds.

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this week, there are two hearings on capitol hill focused on the fallout from the collapse of ftx the current ceo of ftx john ray and ousted ceo sam bankman-fried are expected to testify in front of the house tomorrow. joining us is jay clayton, former s.e.c. chairman and a cnbc contributor he's nonexecutive chair of apollo and an american express board member you saw andrew's interview of bankman-fried. he gave other interviews is this going to be different when he's testifying actually before congress? will there be more i don't recalls isn't the of i didn't know i was doing anything wrong? he's got to tell the absolute truth now, doesn't he? >> i think there will be more of the same, but then there will be more, joe. there's a lot going on in these

congressional hearings people will be trying to get to the bottom of what happened. did it happen because it wassoff sh offshore would it have happened in the u.s. >> if someone says did you knowingly comingle funds with alameda, what did he say to you when you asked him that? it was like nebulous >> we didn't get to a yes or no -- >> that's what i mean. does he do a i don't recall now? i know people do i don't recall again and again and again. >> look, one of the reasons this is going to be so interesting and why we're talking about today, we will see we will see how he handles those questions under that kind of pressure one of the things that makes you a good witness in front of congress is whether you're coming off as authentic or not and that is actually a very

important part of preparing for these types of hearings. >> if he perjureds himself from front of them what happens >> i'm sure he's preparing thoroughly and going through, you know, a fair amount of what is referred to boarding, q&a, how would you respond to this. >> can you talk about the distinction between civil negligence and criminality in the context of what we think has happens here >> the interesting part about the law, it's very complicated around someone's mental state. is your mental state just lack of paying attention. that's the vernacular way to say negligence is it you had an obligation to pay attention. there were all sorts of signs you should be paying attention

and you ignored them, recklessness, or do you have some kind of intent that you were like, for example, you know, i need that money. it's not my money. >> premeditated. >> but i'm going to consciously transfer it to my account. those levels go to level of culpability. we have an amazingly flexible and nuanced legal system around situations like this. >> what are you seeing thus far, maybe unfair to prejudge given we don't have all the facts. what do you think? >> look, i think there was obviously a great deal of bad behavior here that we would think was bad behavior from our perspective as to how you run a financial institution in the united states but also from a general perspective in how you handle any business. >> what about the idea that some of these laws that we have here around securities and all sorts of other things that might otherwise things that maybe

happened would have constituted fraud or worse here, wouldn't there? >> let me say this we have an incredibly well developed and rigorous league system around securities markets, securities trading, all of those things. but its base is in the common law. outside the united states, there's a fair amount of common law built around the fraud and the like what does it do? it creates processes, requirements, transparency, inspection that makes it much easier to detect fraud and prevent fraud. it's not -- i'm not saying that around the world fraudulent activity isn't policed we just have what i would say is a rigorous system for deterring it and detecting it. >> do you think the same level of hubris will be demonstrated from front of -- this is obviously a much more structured setting for him. what about remorse

would you say he was remorseful? i had a bad month. it's not really that remorseful, i would say. >> well, i think he recognizes the severity of the situation but then -- it's hard to -- >> a lot of hubris there. >> what i don't know is,look, part of me think it's a generational thing this whole thing is like a video game no, no and that crypto, everybody is so detached from the actual reality that it touches people in a human way, it's hard -- look, it's hard for me to judge. i saw him the same way that you all saw him on the screen. >> this may be an inflection point for crypto regulation going forward. a lot of what will be going on in these hearings is not just what conduct was there, could it have been prevented, but where do we go from here these are legislatures they'll be setting the predicate for legislation they want to introduce. some people are thinking all

crypto should be banned -- >> you think that's what this is going to be about or this is going to be the biggest theater drama that you've watched in a long time. this is going to be somewhat prosecutorial. >> i think it will be some of all of that. it will be a mixed bag across the spectrum not every member of congress is going to take the same line of questioning. >> why was maxine waters so nice when she first issued the invitation, saying, oh, we would love to have you come on, stop by was she setting him up because she was going to slam him? or was she being nice because he's given money to her campaign >> i don't think it's the latter i consider her a friend. she was always very -- >> i get that. i didn't understand for a minute why they did that nice thing, especially when yot him. you dent have to be that nice. >> at the end of the day -- >> you don't have the power of subpoena from abroad, right? >> at the end of the day this is what they wanted, they have the hearing they wanted.

>> do they not have the power of subpoena from abroad >> i'm confident there's no ability to subpoena somebody if you're abroad. >> maybe if you know they're going to subpoena you, would you ever set foot here again. >> sure, maybe you can do it that way. >> i don't know how it would have come out in the short amount of time that we have. given the short amount of time we have of avoiding the subpoena process is probably a fairly effective way to get the hearing that you want. >> what does john ray -- anything new on that front >> i think it's just what it's going on now >> is there -- people get 30 cents on the dollar, 50 cents, zero >> i think in these things, it's too early to tell. you'll hear what process people are going through. >> he can talk a lot more about this crazy stuff that sam bankman-fried is saying, you turn it back on and fire it back up ray can answer the questions that's not the case. >> he's a very experienced and

methodical guy and he's going to tell people, this is the process we're going through. >> last week we had kevin o'leary on that was a -- crazy. but he kept talking about, you will be able to see fingerprints that everything went on because it's block chain related every transaction is going on the block chain. >>you know i'm a believer in the technology i feel like what has happened is -- >> would we be able to tell what happened >> what's interesting is, not all of these platforms actually have the records on the block chain. >> right. >> they actually have in many cases analog records i don't know what the case is here it's a fascinating thing. >> it's probably not -- you're not going to see every single -- we're not going to find all this >> we'll see we'll see. >> is that fixed yet how long -- are you going to fix that i see you shaking your head.

tv stuff >> you have the monitor. i just have to react. >> and you're nice to everyone you said nice things about maxine, just in keeping what i always say about you, you're very skilled skilled. good -- you have to be good to have you on. we don't, thank god. >> you, for one, are not capable. >> speak for yourself. when we come back, investors are gearing up for a big week ahead for the markets. cpi and the fed's meeting on interest rates in focus. we're going to speak to generation trennert about what investors need to be watching. plus, countdown to potential shutdown e elon moi is standing by. "squawk box" will be right back.

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for $8 a month or on ios for $11 a month to get access to subscriber only features including the blue checkmark elon musk about the 30% fee that the iphone maker charges software developers for in-app purchases. as for the revamp, twitter said it will soon begin replacing the official labor with a gold checkmark for businesses and later in the week a gray checkmark for government and multilateral accounts. subscribers who change their handle will temporarily lose their blue checkmark until their account is reviewed. still to come this morning, we have a lot more the latest on the microsoft activision deal after the ftc suit to block the acquisition. we're going to break down what's going to happen with that. later we'll talk to heather boushey, she's going to talk about peexctations for

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♪ treasury secretary janet yellen is forecasting a significant drop in inflation by the end of next year yellen offering that outlook in

an interview last night ahead of tomorrow's cpi report. despite that forecast, yellen also noted the continued risk of a recession. >> there are always risks for recession, the economy remains prone to shocks. but, look, we have a very healthy banking system, we have very healthy business and household sector -- >> you do not believe there will be a recession next year >> there's a risk of recession, but it certainly isn't, in my view, something that is necessary to bring inflation down. >> let's bring in the ceo of strategic research partners. how are you investing? >> well, becky, i think -- we might put a little bit of a finer point on it which would be

that -- we think a recession is likely it's more likely than not next year and i think there's some indicators of that, the inversion of the yield curve, the amount of tightening the fed has done, a decline in profit expectations, all those things i don't think auger particular well there is a chance, of course, you get a soft landing and i don't think the odds favor that. as a result, we would be still quite defensive which means higher levels of cash than normal i think cash is not trash now. you're getting very attractive yields at the short end of the yield curve. the treasury market, and i think in terms of sectors, we like health care and consumer staples quite a bit. i like energy as well but for more reasons we city think they're going to outperform >> earnings recession is

something that another guest mentioned earlier today. you think that's going to be the case in some industries at least? >> i do. i think -- listen, earnings recessions are about twice as likely as economic recessions. they happen twice as frequently. but -- so sometimes you have an earnings recession without an economic one, but it never goes the other way around when you have an economic recession, you always get an earnings recession the average decline in earnings during a recession is 30%. the median is 20%. we're forecasting a decline of 10% in s&p 500 operating earnings next year i just don't think that's really consistent with a market that's trading at about 18 to 19 times trailing earnings. we're -- that's why we're cautious about the market at this stage >> so, jason, if you look historically, i don't know how far you can go back, at previous

recessions, how many of them were induced deliberately by the fed, the federal reserve, and how many are sort of a business cycle phenomenon and we tried to get around that and tried to, you know, immunize our economy from these cycles. i don't know if it's even possible to do that. i'm just -- it's not always that the fed raises rates and causes a recession. normally, recessions are predicted for a variety of reasons. sometimes they come through, sometimes they don't do you know, is it -- everybody remembers volker that -- those rates brought in -- but it's not always like that, is it? maybe -- i'm still hopeful we don't have to have a hard, hard landing, that inflation can moderate and the jobs market, other things seem to solid maybe we just continue along. >> joe, i'm hopeful too.

it's just -- the hard part about this is that the fed -- the fed's tools are such blunt instruments that it's really hard -- it's really hard to nuance or bring down inflation when it's already at 8%. so it -- but you're right. it doesn't always have to happen this way personally, i know it sounds horrible because people lose their jobs and it's tough. but i feel very strongly that recessions are a part of the business cycle, part of capitalism it's what allows the system to grow i think that in my opinion, the fool's errand was to try to completely obviate any need for a recession through quantitative easing it's a nice goal except that it creates a lot of mall investment, it creates a lot of foolish investments and you're not allowing capital to be priced correctly

in my opinion, it is possible for the reasons that secretary yellen pointed out, that we don't have to have a recession this could be just part of a psych cyclical process but it starts with allowing the cost of capital to find its natural rate if you're manipulating the cost of capital as we've done for the past 13 or 14 years, it's kind of hard to know where the economy should be. >> jason, what do you think the fed is going to say or do this week what would change your mind that you could possibly hear this week from them >> well, listen, i think it's a foregone conclusion now that they're going to kcut rates -- increase rates less than forecast i think, though, that there are still risks as you saw with the ppi number last week that inflation is not -- it may

have peaked, but it's not been vanquished i think that the fed also is increasingly worried about the liquidity in the financial markets because this has been such a rapid change. but, you know, becky, to me, the fed needs to see two things to stop increasing rates. one, it would have to see positive real rates, which is a fed funds rate above inflation and see some weakness in the labor markets. the fed is very much of a phillip's curve. it spends a lot of time looking at the labor markets without those things, i think it's hard for them to really change course. and, of course, i think the statement by the chairman is going to be interpreted much more -- the press conference is going to be interpreted and scrutinized much more closely than the basis points increase that you're going to see and i think the chairman must know that at this point, that that is -- that's really where people look for clues.

any time he clears his throat with anything that sounds dovish, the asset prices take off. i think he's going to be a little bit more circumspect. i don't know if you remember 2018, the fed shot santa claus out of the sky by tightening very close to christmas and all the rest of it he might want to not go that far, but i think he's -- he has to choose his words very carefully. >> bottom line, describing your own feelings about the market right now, cautiouscious concerned, waiting -- >> cautious. i think it's cautious. and i'm very uncomfortable really being -- being called a bear but i would say i'm somewhat bearish right now. i think there has to be an adjustment in equity prices. just given where multiples are and given expectations for earnings growth. those things don't seem consistent with me i don't see -- there is a

possibility the fed -- that tightens less and inflation comes down i don't see a great path to see earnings accelerate in any sort of meaningful way. >> jason, it's great to see you. we'll see you soon. >> it's great to be here okay take it easy >> coming up, microsoft, again, making headlines this morning. the company taking a 4% equity stake in the london stock exchange as part of a ten-year commercial deal to migrate the exchange and the operator's data platform into the cloud. the company prepares to battle the government over its deal to buy activision blizzard. we're going to speak to the top antitrust enforcer under president trump. "squawk box" will be right back.

to the latest out of washington and the race by congress to strike a deal to keep the federal government funded congressional leaders set to return to the capital today hoping to reach a deal on a full-year spending bill before friday's deadline. but there are some key divisions that remain. ylan mui joins us now with the latest we've heard about this in the past, these deals where we're coming up against government funding falling apart. at this point, we're conditioned

to think that this deal is going to get done. are we wrong to think that >> there's still a lot of hope, becky, even though the spending number is still influx we know the number will come in over $1.5 trillion but last week, they were still $25 billion apart. negotiators did make progress over the weekend and that the senator leading these talks is holding off on releasing his own version of a spending bill today in hopes of reaching that bipartisan deal. an agreement would need at least ten gop senators on board. but half a dozen republicans have come out against any deal brokered during this lame duck session. they want to wait to negotiate in the next congress when republicans take control in the house. in a recent letter they wrote, quote, for the senate to ram through a so-called omnibus, it would disempower the house from

enacting it. kevin mccarthy is against passing a comprehensive spending bill right now there's talk of doing a stopgap measure that would keep the government open. but the problem is, no one can agree on how long it should last even though we've seen time and again lawmakers come up to the deadline and get something passed, you've seen government shutdowns happen too frequently as well. >> what do you think the most likely scenario is, that last case that you laid out, the idea that they kicked the can down the road >> yeah, i think they need more time, quite frankly. so right now the deadline is friday at midnight there's still another week before you get to the real deadline, which is christmas and everyone wants to be home with their families it seems likely that they -- whatever scenario happens, even if they do get that full comprehensive spending deal going, they would need at leas one more week to put it together and to get it past both chambers

of congress. it seems likely they're going to need one more week if they can come together and reach that full-year deal, that remains to be sceen. a stopgap measure seems unlikely at this point. >> i guess we're going to be talking about this at least for the near future for quite a bit. thank you. >> coming up, the doj's top antitrust enforcer joins us to discuss the ftc filing a case against microsoft that challenges its attempt to buy activision blizzard. that's next. we'll get november's cpi data at 8:30 a.m. tomorrow and the federal reserve, same day, begins a two-day policy meeting with the rate announcement set for 2:00 p.m. on wednesday and economists expect a 50-basis point increase on thursday, jobless claims, retail sales and we have the

futures ahead of all this up 67 points on the dow and the nasdaq and s&p joining in this morning.

just look around. this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can.

so let's go. the digital age is waiting. a number of stocks to watch on this monday morning, first up coupa software is being acquired by private equity firm for $81 a share. another technical-focused p/e

firm you can see that stock is up by more than 26%. the last trade at $78.64 and amgen buying horizon therapeutics horizon develops medicine to treat autoimmune diseases. thises the biggest deal that amgen has ever done. horizon therapeutics up by more than 15%. microsoft announcing a ten-year partnership with the london stock exchange. it took a stake of 4% in the operator it involves next generation data and analytics. microsoft will migrate the data platform and other key technology infrastructure onto its cloud which is built on azure. they will spend $2.8 billion over ten years on cloud-related products with microsoft.

let's talk about the big ftc decision on thursday to block the microsoft's acquisition of activision blizzard. one of the largest acquisitions in tech. when the deal was announced one year ago, the company said it aimed to close that acquisition by next summer now it's all being called into question joining us right now the top antitrust enforcer under president trump. we welcome him to the program. it's very, very good to see you. i'm very curious what you make of the suit and the effort to block this transaction >> thanks for having me, again, andrew i think the suit was probably not a surprise for a lot of folks who have been watching the enforcement regime in the last two years. i think, you know, there's a greater tolerance for risk by the antitrust enforcers. and it's one of those rare

vertical merger challenges it's going to be interesting the ftc has some challenges in market definition in the case. but the timing and the process for these types of cases make the whole effort moot because i don't think -- i think the trial date that they've asked for sometimes in august, which is ws outside of the merger end date, which i is believe in june. >> you said you thought this administration has a willingness to take more risk. if you were to handicap the way a judge might determine the outcome of this case, how would you -- if someone said to you, what are the chances, what are the chances of a win or a loss, what do you think they are >> well that is always a foolish endeavor for lawyers to try to handicap however this is a process. this is really important in this case the ftc has gone before its administrative law judge inside of the agency itself rather than to an article 3 court in the district courts where the

justice department, where we had to go to so they go before their own administrative law judge this administrative law judge or last couple of cases they've brought, have ruled against the federal trade commission this is the grail case as well as the alt rea jewel cases but you appeal that judge's case, gets to who? the commission itself. and so the commission that votes on this sits on the appeal and then after that you go to federal court of appeals so, and guess what, in 40 years the ftc has never lost appeals of its own decisions so that makes it a real challenge for microsoft and activision here. >> let me ask you this one of the things is the prospect of this type of litigation over the entire tech industry, has had a chilling effect in some way you could argue it is own form of regulation. but if, in fact, the ftc were to

lose this case, it also appeared that it might shift and change the balance of how big tech thinks about transactions, it could open up the flood gates, if you will. >> well, you have seen a greater appetite merging parties challenging the government, both at the justice department and at the ftc. the real problem is will merging parties, does financing fall apart given the recent changes in the market. does -- will the parties stay in to challenge this case you have, you know, a trial date that is in august. it will probably take another four or five months after that before you have a decision then an appeal to the commission then you get the court so, i don't know how many parties will stick together and keep a deal going while they challenge the agencies the agencies themselves believe

that somehow that when parties abandon a transaction, that it is the best form of outcome for these and so i think part of their effort is to create this chilling effect on mergers and acquisitions and they've had that effect. >> it sounds like you're suggesting that you think this deal will break as a result of just the timing and all of the work that would otherwise go into a case and then an appeal if in fact that were what was required >> well it depends on the motivation of the parties. if activision wants to stay in and extend the deal agreement, so i don't think there is -- i don't know exactly the structure of this deal if there is debt involved, if microsoft is just buying that, they could certainly cut a deal and extend the period another year and go through the trial i think they have a good argument the argument that some high functioning consoles thatxbox

and the playstation are the relevant market here is a challenge. i have three kids and all three of them play on one -- one of them plays on his laptop, the other two plays on an ipad and some -- a lot of times they're playing on a phone so i don't know if that is really -- that is market deaf fission that is going to hold up in the market system or before their own alj. i think if they were put to the test, the ftc will have a challenge and they could very well lose here so i would -- i wouldn't bet against the deal, not certainly on legal grounds but procedurally, it is a bit of a challenge. >> what do youanticipate in terms of legislation, not around this deal but there are a number of bills in the house and in the senate that are around anti-trust and shifting the balance or at least in some cases some congress people arbot

senators would say updating the law to reflect the new world that we're living in. >> well i've advocated for some changes. some minor changes that will have a huge impact on anti-trust enforcement. i think the current economy presents a big test for the current laws and procedures. i think, look, just the fact that we're talking about the ftk and the process compared to what the doj has to go through is ub unfair to the business community. you have the supreme court right now hearing one of the challenges to the ftc structure. so by next summer we might have a decision of whether or not you could challenge their decisions in court so there is a lot of changes that congress should make. the problem they've had is they've trying to do wholesale change of the anti-trust laws and that is not likely to happen. >> and hai have a big question n only 60 seconds to answer it,

which is you look at a lot of transactions and the consolidation over the years and it is better for customers on one end but if you talk to economists, janet yellen and others, they will say there is less competition broadly and that unto itself in the united states poses a real problem, in some cases it might reflect on inflation and other elements of our economy. what do you think? >> look, i think we have a lot of innovation in this country and around the world but particularly in this country. we've had changes -- the question becomes do you have really less competition in the answer of product markets that govern the anti-trust laws as opposed to just generally looking at consolidation and some industries absolutely, i think you do need more competition. but the way to do that is really to incentivize new market innovation and sometimes a regulatory system prevented new competition from entering into

the market place. >> you were the man in the middle during this last administration we appreciate you being here thank you. >> thanks for having me. when we return, mohamed al-erian will talk today's fed decision and later brian robins on streaming. the busy box office season and much more. "squawk box" will be right back.

good morning, it is fed week, the u.s. central bank set to hike interest rates again on wednesday. the big question, by how much. we're going to speak with a top white house economist on that. and new cpi data coming up janet yellen calling for a substantial reduction in inflation in the year ahead. got full coverage of the what the treasury secretary said and we'll talk about with mohamed el-erian we're going to talk movies an streaming and so much more what to expect with the ceo of paramount pictures final hour of "squawk box" begins right now

♪ good morning and welcome back to "squawk box" here on cnbc live from the nasdaq market site in times square i'm joe kernen along with becky quick and andrew ross sourkin >> that is factual times square is not outside but it is not rainy, but it is dreary >> finally the snow stopped. >> and it is when do we start getting longer days? >> december 22nd now that i'm counting the days. >> exactly >> but a month from now it will be just like it is right now because you go two weeks shorter and then two weeks out. >> the equity futures, green, 80 points on the dow and nasdaq 30 and 13 on the s&p. and tomorrow we got cpi. cpi and the beginning of a

two-day fed meeting and then we'll see what they do on wednesday. people expecting 50 basis points before all of that 354 right now on the ten-year. i did the imagine earlier, you have to make sure you do the ten-year first and then you subtract that from the two-year and you could get somewhere around 78, i think but that is not going out to all of the decimal -- >> the thousands of place. there you go 78 good job. breaking deal news, amgen is buying rare disease treatment maker horizon thera pietices at a value of $28 billion last month horizon has been preliminary discussions with amgen and sant a fee and johnson and johnson. and horizon therapeutics up by over 15% also take a look at share at cuppa software tomah bravo agreeing to buy the

firm for 81 cents a share in cash coupa down about 60% but this morning it looks like it is up 26%. and new just out, barbecue webber grill maker webber has agreed for a short one as a kuble company that tried to capitalize on stay-at-home products it popped 20% on the very first day to a market cap of nearly $5 billion as you could see, it is down significantly since then about 43% from the ipo and by the way, this chart includes today's big stock jump of 22%. >> let's get back to the broader markets as we count down in the opening bell on wall street. mike santoli joins us now with more did you spend most of the weekend thinking about what you're going to say right now, mike >> well, you know, i wrote my column, that is my little way of figuring out what i think.

so, yeah, that -- >> can you tell us, or you'd have to kill us first. >> i could tell you right now. >> please do. >> you could wait for the cost of a cnbc prosubscription at the moment we're coming off a down week but the remarkable thing if you look at it from a long-term perspective on a year-to-date basis, it is how steady we've been for last 7 months 3934 was the close on friday 3930 we closed may 12th. that is exactly seven months ago today. so what to make of the fact that we have been trapped in this range. the upside and downside has been about equivalent and we haven't done much in the last month holding on to the last cpi release date, november 10th, gains. but that is about it so i think the market is kind of mutually assuring frustration on both sides, pretty tight consensus building that we are in for some kind of another shoe to drop on earnings, make have a low into early next year and maybe it is a good thing that everyone expects further downside but for now it said you

have the disinflation story and peak inflation is in the overall c consensus view and we haven't seen the worst of any economic slowdown so we're in between the two big risks. take a look at commodities on a year-to-date basis this is the broad commodity index exchange so you have this huge jump up right after the russia invasion of ukraine everyone getting excited about how high oil could go and you've unwound all of that. so hard goods and commodity placed inflation no longer the story and we've moved on ho to you wages might be able to move. and now you talked about the inversion of the curve, look at the ten-year yield, it is not back to springtime levels, certainly not. but we just about got to that june high here and it is kind of threatened to go back under 3 1/2 which is was this other zone. there is a limit to how low this could go even if we expect lower inflation and lower groernl next year because of the way that the

fed has taken short-term rates but it does show you the moment that we're at trying to tell the story that inflation was this panic over six months, maybe we moved past it, obviously tomorrow's cpi will tell us if that is a correct assumption, joe. >> mike, this is the quiet before the storm got a lot happening this week. but mondays are mondays. we'll do our part here but it is mainly anticipation of the cpi and then whatever the fed does thanks, mike a couple of mergers, i guess. meantime investors looking ahead to the fed meeting which starts tomorrow, the central bank expected to raise interest rates by half a percentage point. policymakers trying to slow the recession without a hard landing. janet yellen addressed that topic on 60 minutes last night. >> there are always risks of a recession. the economy remains prone to shocks but, look, we have a very healthy banking system, we have

very healthy business and household sector. >> so you have said this you do not believe there will be a recession next year. >> there is a risk of recession, but it certainly isn't in my view something that is necessary to bring inflation down. >> joining us to talk about it mohamed el-erian and his article titled next year's unpleasant choices confronting the fed. you're not exactly where janet yellen is, mohamed. >> i'm am where she is when she said it is not necessary to have a reregulation to bring inflation down. it is highly probable and it is also highly probable and that we may find inflation sticking at around 4% which is going to put the fed and put us all in a

difficult situation in the middle of next year. what do we do if inflation gets stuck at 4%. do we crush the economy more, not a good idea. do we increase the inflation target not a good idea. do we try to somehow see whether we could live with high inflation for a while and i think ultimately the fed is going to have to maneuver this very, very difficult road towards the middle of next year. i think we have clarity on what happens next with the fed, but the further out you go into 2023, the harder it gets and we're not getting rates coming down as the market expects. >> well if rates don't go down as the market expects, then we're in for a, i imagine, a world of continuing hurt we've talked about the market, the equity market, that is, that has looked for anything on the optimistic end you've been on the pessimistic

end. is there an argument for optimist. >> it has three elements one is the interest rate risk, agreewith that second, balance sheets are strong yes. thirdly, the economy is very resilient because the labor market is strong so, there is no doubt that there are strength in the economy. why is it that i say well bee careful even though these three things are connect one, it is no longer about inflation risk it is about credit risk. it is from going from multiples to earnings. we have -- we've had them off the book and now it is about earnings i also worry that the fed is going to end up by overdoing it. and it is going to overdo it because it didn't understand the recession dynamic and started late inflation is imbedded in the service sector. >> this is the part i don't understand you have to help me with

either they're going to overdo it, or woe're living at 4% inflation. can it be both. >> yes because different parts of the economy. so they're going to crush the good sector, they're going to crush housing, they're going to crush the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy, but the problem is that the inflation drivers have already shifted from that part to the service part, to wages where the tool is too blunt. that is the cost of being late it is the lesson, you've got to be as old as i am to see this lesson play out. once you let inflation go through a few prices and goods, into the good services, into the good sector and then into services and wages, once you do that, you're interest rate tool becomes really blunt. >> so here we are, the situation is what the situation is, what would you do

>> so, i would end up by hiking not 50 this time, i would do another 75 i would then come down to the 25s. i would certainly signal as i think they will signal, a higher peak weight and i'll be much more honest with the marketplace and society with my projections. we need realistic projections from the most democratic institution that we have and look, there are no easy choices. once your in the world of sub-on the umality. you stay in the world for a while. >> do you think, you said you would be honest with the public and i appreciate that. do you think that this fed is not being honest with the public do you think that they genuinely don't believe what they say or that they are just having rose-colored glasses on. what is happening here

the disconnect between your view and they're view, is it just an honest difference of opinion or something else >> so what do we know for sure, andrew that projections have been horribly wrong and the error has been one-sided for last two years. that we know for sure. they have been way too optimistic on inflation coming down and there have been way too optimistic on growing. so that we we know for sure. the question is why has that happened is it that forecasting is horrible or is it there is a bit of politics playing in here that you don't want to give the bad news, compare this to the bank of england they shocked everybody by saying bee careful, inflation may go up to 13% the bank of england shocked everybody saying that we might be in the longef recession, that will last for whole of 2023. because they did that, they

caused the government to change policy and they have have an important influence on the economic debate right. they didn't hold back the bad news they said, no, let me socialize the bad news so that we could avoid the bad news so i think that there is a real discussion to be had as to whether that forecasting has just been incredibly poor, and the error in one direction, or whether they have been trying to be political with their forecast >> okay. we're going to leave the conversation there mohamed we'll see what mr. powell has to say later this week and whether he is honest with the country or not. or what his version of the truth is here. but we always appreciate seeing you. thank you. >> thank you, andrew. >> still to come, a view of the box office with only a few weeks left in the year the ceo of paramount pictures will join us. plus much more from heather

buschy with expectations for tomorrow's inflation print stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc the holidays are here. and dick's sporting goods has all the best gifts for everyone on your list. the hottest footwear from jordan, nike, and hoka. and the coolest apparel from all the best brands. plus must-have gifts from yeti, callaway, and the north face. when you're running short on time, shop dicks.com, where one hour pick up is always an option. and with our best price guarantee, if you find a lower price - we'll match it. this season, give the gift of sport. every holiday starts at dick's.

welcome back to "squawk box," everybody. we're watching the future this is morning continuing with some green arrows the nasdaq up by 37, this comes after a down day on friday whether the markets pulled back after some hotter than expected inflation numbers. if you've been watching crude oil prices, these prices have basically collapsed if you're looking at wti, earlierwe were below 7150 and it is well below what we had seen a few months ago. last week wti had the worst week since april. it was down by more than 11% just for the week. it has been down for six out of the last six sections. that is the longest daily losing streak in over a year. >> and according to days of the year, today is national poinsettia day and gingerbread house day but more important for

investors it is a significant market anniversary 42 years ago apple went public at $22 a share and today it is trading at $142 and change but remember the stock has split five times since december 12th, 1980 since then the stock is up more than 145,000%. >> coming up next, nearly three year news the pandemic, what could we say about athe movie business we're going to talk about the 2022 box office streaming and so much more with the ceo of paramount pictures as we head to a break. this special note, we've produced a special podcast, squawk pod reports that has interviews people running america's largest companies. what keeps business leaders up at night and gets them ready to go in the morning. listen to squawk pod reports now by following squawk pod on your vote pcafariodst app stay tuned we're coming right back.

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black panther wack and youo forever taking the top spot of the weekend box office it is led for five straight weeks and has earned $768 million worldwide that is according to box office mojo the big film is now awaiting is avatar, the way of water, which premier this is thursday the original avatar from 2009 grossed $2.9 billion this year's winner so far has

been paramount pictures top gun maverick with under $1.5 billion in worldwide ticket receipts we're joined by the ceo of paramount pictures brian robbins. and welcome. we have a lot of questions for you, and a lot of things we'd like to try to feel out. but first up, what is the situation with the box office right now. things changed during covid and people are back out but are they picking and choosing which films they want to go to the box office for how do you figure out crowd mean mentality at this point. >> thanks for having me. to answer the question, it is been a very interesting year at the box office obviously there has been some big winners. but there is also sp losers and i think that is the history of film going for us at paramount. i think we've had our best year in over a decade which is incredible when you think about the environment. obviously with top gun maverick

leading the way. but we've had success in every genre. whether that is rom com, comedy and family films and our later hits "smile" which is in the horror genre so we feel good about bring a diverse slate to audiences and we know that audiences want the big spectacle of movies. and that is what we try to give them >> you know, you bring up "smile" that was slated to go straight to streaming. you made the decision to biring it to a theatrical release why was that was it something about smile or the horror genre or people coming back. what went into the calculus? >> you're right. we did make it for streaming and then we looked at the film and said the film making here is spectacular. let's test this movie like we would a normal theatrical movie and we discovered that audiences went crazy for it.

and then the secret sauce was unlocking our amazing world class marketing and distribution operations on that who then came up with an incredible viral digital campaign that really put them that movie in the zeitgeist. >> i think for somebody trying to make decisions about the studios, just streaming has changed everything not only deciding what goes to streaming first, but then you have to figure out how you value those films. like how much do you charge the streaming service even if it is internal housekeeping and it goes about ak to how you motivate your troops on every side nobody in the studio side of things wants to get ripped off feeling they're not getting fully valued for one of their movies so how do you do that? >> well, for us, because we have our own service in paramount plus, streaming has really unlocked more value for us and we know that our theatrical

films, when successful, when backed up by a big theatrical marketing campaign are doing more work for us and more powerful than films that go straight to streaming. you know, all year we've seen great success and we've driven huge audiences to our service from our theatrical films. obviously a head film really helps but the economics are better for us as well. we're taking the value of streaming and putting that into the traditional water fall to suggest the success and failure of our theatrical films. >> i mean the internal housekeeping, how much does the studio get paid for that when it goes straight to the streaming service. is it the cost of what it took to make the film or if you bid that film out to the highest bidder and then pay the studio based on that from the streaming service. this is just to figure out how expensive streaming is and how you motivate your troops

internally. >> sure. there has always been the window process in theatrical. and you have home entertainment and then pay one that is what you'retalking about. pay one has always been a percentage of the box office with a certain floor and ceiling and that is how we value the films. it is no different. >> brian, what do you think just about audiences these days are they back to normal? is this, like, yeah, we're back to where we were 2019 before anybody ever heard of covid. >> it is an interesting question the box office is off about 30% since 2019 but look, we've also had 30 less released this year so, i think it will be really interesting to see next year when there is a full slate of releases where the box office levels are my guess, my feeling is we're going to be pretty close to 2019 levels >> how would you describe your relationship with the theater ow

owners this point. >> for us at paramount, our relationship is great. we made a decision early last year when the pandemic was coming back to hold our release dates. and so, in january, february and march, we were the only studio that was letting our big theatrical releases go and it paid nor for us. we had number one films with extreme and jack ass and the lost city and sonic and then top gun. so i think theater owners are pretty happy with us. >> the other big question that floats out there and i realize that this is a question for a higher up in the hierarchy too, but what happens, is there going to be an acquisition that takes place, do you need to be bigger? you have a $12.5 billion market cap as a company how do you think about that just in terms of all of the things that you're doing, is this side track issue, is it something that takes away any of your attention or how do go about thinks of those things >> well, i'm keenly focused on making great films with great

filmmakers and then unleashing our world class marketing campaigns to bring audiences a great global theatrical experience and then those films are driving value to our platforms including our streaming service and ultimately building value if our library which is great for our shareholders that is what i'm keenly focused on i'll let our ceo worry about m&a. >> is it hard to pay for the best talent these days there is so much money going around from all of the different new entrances. everybody from apple, to amazon and beyond how would you describe in your entire career, how this measures up >> you know, that is a great question you know, i think there was momentum a lot of talent that were going to streaming and sort of taking big pay days at -- from the streaming services. what has happened lately is i think that same talent is

missing the excitement and the fanfare and sort of they're films are not in the zeitgeist compared to a big theatrical release. so it is turned around talent wants to make sure that films will be in theaters so they get that marketing campaign, that keeps them relevant so we're seeing a turn and that is worked in our favor and i think we'll continue to work in our favor. >>arri emanuel said that all of the talk you hear about cut backs from places like time warner and others, that it doesn't translate into what he sees in terms of the deal. is that your perspective as well >> yeah, look, i think the landscape is still really competitive. the fight for talent is fierce and there is only a handful of filmmakers that are truly, truly driving relevance. and so, there is competition and

there has always been competition. we feel like we're winning our fair share >> thank you for being with us today. it is good to see you. >> thank you so much have a great day. >> you too. coming up next we'll talk with heather buschy ahead of nor inflation data tomorrow the cpi and the fed decision this week reminder, you could always listen or watch us live using the cnbc app chay tuned mu more "squawk box" after a break. esg into your investments? at pgim, the pursuit is on for outperformance. as active investors, to outdeliver with customized strategies, integrating esg best practices into our investment decisions. as asset managers and fiduciaries, to outserve, with our commitment to better esg outcomes. join the pursuit of outperformance at pgim. the investment management business of prudential.

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welcome back to "squawk box" right here on cnbc take a look at futures we're looking at the dow up about 76 and the nasdaq opening about 25 points higher and the s&p 500 looking to open about 11 pints higher and we should show you treasury yields, grappling with the ten year note at about 3.545 and the two year at 4.342. >> it is a key week for the economy and economic data. tomorrow's november cpi and wednesday is the latest interest rate decision and friday the government could shutdown if lawmakers can't reach at least a temporary deal on funding. join us now on all of this is

heather buschy, a member of president biden counsel economic advisers it is good to see you this morning. nice back drop, heather. once again, we're going to hear from the fed and jay powell. and i know that the fed needs political independence, but when you're in the business of trying to get everyone working and trying to have a strong economy, is there any grousing in the white house about this fed at this point that we got things going so well and we understand inflation but please don't kill the goose that is laying the golden egg do you ever hear that? >> we believe in the independence of the fed and so i will not comment on fed policy and certainly what we here at the white house are focused on is making sure that the economy is delivering for working families, that the president doing what he can to keep the economy on track and the president has said time and time again that one of the most

important economic issues facing families is getting inflation down and he has made that his priority doing what he can to address inflation through all the work that has been happening to make sure supply chains have been functioning, which of course they are now to a larger degree and all of the other things that are helping to lower prices for families including lower prices that families are facing now for gas prices at pump which is certainly a welcome relief during this holiday season with the typical two driver family saying about $175 relative to the peak early this summer so, these are the kinds of questions that we in the white house are talking about right now. and in terms of the economy. >> if you look at gas price, up there now. oil $70. so there are positive things on the inflation front. on a friday when you have a -- like last friday, you have a good jobs number and then you see that there is wage gains and all avof a sudden, everybody is all up in arms, we have to be

much nastier about raising rates than we were no one at the white house goes why are higher wages a problem when it is something we've been trying to do for so long doesn't it -- it just seems like a warped way to try to bring inflation under control. >> well, and you know, joe, this is why the president is so focused on the agenda to make sure that we are supporting industries that are moving us to a clean economy, making sure that our economy could be resilient and creating good jobs all across the country the president last week was focused on the conversation he was halving in phoenix where there is now an increase in an investment by a company named tsmc to $40 billion in a second semiconductor facility this is going to create good jobs in that community on top of lots of other investments across the country in semiconductors, in clean energy and u.s. manufacturing and so the president and the kpik economic team are focused on

that team of the real economy. where those jobs are being create and how that is going to be fen fitting american families and creating those good jobs, hopefully union jobs across the u.s. economy >> let me just try to drill down on what you think or what you would concede resulted in the inflation. and a lot of it is in the labor markets so we'll talk about that in a second. but there is also, when you increase demand, with stimulus, sometimes that causes some inflation. would you continue to try to effect some of the president's priorities knowing that it was -- it was counter to what the fed is going to -- do you continue to have demand increase by -- by spending on whatever. on whatever social programs you want to spend on or at this time, do you think we really need to take a pause, let the fed effect demand so inflation

comes down should we keep spending and have more to do next year >> well here is the thing. there have been a series of historic investments going into the economy. this congressional session has been historic in terms of the amount of legislation that has gotten through, much of which on a bipartisan basis and much of which is focused on addressing core challenges on the supply side of the economy we all saw over the course of the pandemic how fragile american's supply chains are and we've seen of course its broad into stark relief since putin's unprovoked war in the ukraine, we need to focus on the transition to clean energy for environment and to make sure that we have the energy independence and so the president is focused on semiconductors, but clean energy and making and building things here in america those are the kind of investments that we need to continue to make to support the economy nationwide but these are supply side investments that will make our economy more productive and

resilient and competitive internationally over time. >> i'm sorry, go ahead. >> no, go ahead. >> i was going to say that we talk about it all of the time here, that a lot of the angst, the worries about this labor market that we have now and the shortage, whether it is immigration or whatever you want to blame for the shortage of labor, but that is where a lot of the inflation, the long-term systemic worry coming from the labor market and i was going to bring this up with you anyway. but there is a piece in the journal today that just serendipitously about what a person can -- when they stay at home and don't work, that they could have a pretty good 50, $55,000 maybe worth of income and it is much harder to get people back into the office or back into the work force because of this. do you think there is anything to do that the best laid plans, a lot of

times, the best intentions lead to -- to something else. so if that is causing -- >> unintensed consequences. >> yeah. >> so let's step back and look at big picture on labor supply, because i 100% agree with you, this is an important constraint on our economy now but it has been for a long time. when you look over the past few decades, the united states has seen labor supply that has not kept upwith what has happened in other countries we've seen labor supply for both men and women falling and falling where it is not happened in other countries in many of our economic competitors and so i think we need to ask ourselves why. why americans aren't participating. and there are a number of reasons. one of the things that the president focused on time and time again is a part of the build back better package was making sure that workers and their families have access to care and childcare and making sure families have home care and access so that people could get to work. but we've seen over the course of the pandemic that labor supply for the most part has

come back. it is been a little bit volatile with the month to month. but that is a good indication that we're on the right path but certainly these are long-standing issues and some it is about the quality of jobs that people have we know that a job quality is higher, if hours or kpatble with family life and easy to navigate you get a schedule more than a few days in advance. but they're good jobs with benefits and with access to a yunon. these are all things thattin degrees - that induce people to come into the market and work at their fullest capacity and that is why the president has been focused on labor supply as you correctly point out. >> i guess you remember back in the '90s, bill clinton and they came together on bipartisan welfare reform and the labor of participation rate went way up in that period now we've been through this pandemic and this is the way that the -- the editorial goes at the end here, that the

bipartisan welfare reform of the '90s worked and now after the pandemic relief bills were sort of back in to where it is bloated at this point. too much of the pandemic stimulus is still around so that it is hardto induce people to come back which i need more money if i'm going to come back which goes to higher wages which goes into the higher inflation so we're trying to -- >> there is a fact there, though there is a fact that we need to be aware of. for prime age workers labor force participation is almost back to where it was about where it was pre-pandemic. so, i think that that argument needs a little bit of fine tuning there to get the facts right so, i think it is actually quite remarkable given long covid, given how many families have been struggling with the pandemic, and with ongoing challenges with this difficult flu season this year, that actually things have looked so

positive on that side of the ledger. >> so you usually have a belief blower, gasolinepowered leaf blower what is happening now that you're piping in there >> it is a leaf blower behind me, yes. >> that must be an electric one. >> do you know that this is -- >> you're on tv. >> that you're on tv. >> we heard janet yellen last night talk about next year, inflation will be down, maybe we don't have a recession do you think that as a trained economist, do you recessions, i asked this earlier, do they always come from the fed orchestrating a recession or could it come from just the business cycle as just due for, i don't flow, a retrenchment. >> this is a challenging economic time, right we've gone through a global pandemic we have emerged from that strong and in a relatively good position the economic data at this moment does not indicate that we are in a recession. of course, we saw growth in the third quarter. we continue to see jobs being added.

last month around 260,000 jobs that is a very healthy pace of job creation so, we are -- we're seeing some of the prices starting to come down or the pace slowing. the lowest pace of producer price increases since may of 2021 so signs are pointing in the right direction. we do not appear to be in a recession at this point. the data do not indicate that. >> do you think that the fed is going to keep going until they see that and then it becomes clear to them that they have orchestrated at least a landing, whether it is hard, whether it is soft, or whatever >> well we are hoping for that smooth landing but again the fed is independent so we can't comment on fed policy but so far prices have been abating and the economy has continued to add jobs. so trying to find that sweet spot we all knew it would be complicated coming out of a global pandemic. it is very complicated on top of the war in ukraine

but given all of hat, the u.s. economy has been resilient and it is continuing to show forward momentum so i think that all -- that all indicates good things. >> well i heard you, this is all -- we have a record of this conversation i heard you speak positively about supply side solutions to this so we're going to talk about that again next time i want to see a list of all of the these. i personally don't know if there is enough. demand side is frustrating because we're killing demand and that is the opposite of what we should want to do. so if we could increase supply it could be great but then i'll call you a supply siders and i know you wouldn't like that. >> janet yellen wrote a speech on supply side so there you go. >> thank you >> thank you >> we'll see you next time. >> when we come back, jim cramer will give us his first take on the trading day. be we're watching goldman sachs up grapding gap and coach and

kate spade to buy from neutral while it downgrades levi straus from neutral to buy. they said the movies were based on which companies could thrive in an atmosphere that will see consumers become more discerning with their spending on clothing. stay tuned you're watching "squawk box" on cnbc we're live at the nasdaq market site in times square young lady who was, you know, mid 30s, couple of kids, recently went through a divorce. she had a lot of questions when she came in. i watched my mother go through being a single mom. at the end of the day, my mom raised three children, including myself. and so once the client knew that she was heard. we were able to help her move forward. your client won't care how much you know until they know how much you care.

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we have some video i wish we have spl video i love those cars. riv rivian is pausing plan for electric commercial vans in europe and they believe focussing on the consumer business in the existing commercial business are the best near term opportunities to maximize value. they signed a memorandum of understanding to build electric vans in europe and just three months ago, on a monday, we could use some rivian vo, because it makes me hanny when i see the happy vehicles. >> they're smiling you've seen them, right? you've seen them out on theed road. >> of course, i have. >> did it make you happy >> yeah.

but i like an ev. >> because it looks like gilbert on the trouble some trucks. >> want to know if you're going to smile about this news jewel labs agreed to a broad legal settlement covering more than 5,000 lawsuits. the cigarettemaker will pay up to $1.7 billion over accusations the company targeted underage users the settlement resolved much of the legal liability that had pushed juul to the brink of bankruptcy >> i forgot to mention i was going to mention this earlier. the other "60 minutes" piece on google or instagram. just scary what happens to some kids in terms of eating disorders. >> and their own internalizing feelings >> you say, yeah, i am 13. you don't have to be 13. it's the wild, wild west and kids can be affected by that but the lawyer representing the class action suit, he's like, i'm watching, and he goes -- they said, what'd you used to do i used to do the mesothelioma.

i guess they look for stuff to do >> the one that gets me is, what, advil causes autism? some -- advil or aspirin, something out there, saying it causes autism. if you've ever taken aspirin and your child has autism, call us up >> can you specialize in mesothelioma and translate that to social media? >> it doesn't. >> it's a magnetic business. >> there are a lot of things that instagram does do and does know >> we need those people. we need them we need them a lot bit just seems a little bit, i don't know, seedy. >> crass it does. >> let's get down to the new york stock exchange, check in with jim cramer. it is starting to feel like a merger monday. bunch of big deals that are out there. horizon therapeutics weber is going to be taken private too. you want to talk about any of

those potential deals? >> weber is a disaster they lowered the deal to 14 in august of last year and jumped to 16. it was just a total fiasco so that's a nice cover of short. co coupa used to be much higher and horizon is a second-rate company and i know that j&j passed because they felt it was a second-rate company. these are three deals that demonstrate a complete lack of understanding of the real markets and i wish them all luck >> is this a sign of the times continuing >> amgen is run by a banker. weber is a second-rate company, going to third tier. and coupa's actually a real company but you can't buy the stuff that is losing money or not making a lot of money. it's a failure in the market i regard all three of these as

being really good for the m&a lawyers and bankers. >> jim, what do you think about the fed this week, the potential to move markets around what the conventional wisdom is at this point, what would be seen as newsworthy and something to gyrate markets? >> sure. well, i mean, in the 2:00 statement, it will be worthless. you got to wait until the actual press conference i think unless they have the cpi going for them, i agree with mohamed el-erian they got to get something going for them ppi wasn't and i think that they're -- i'm not saying they're in trouble, but i think that the two-year says you're going to lose money on the two-year, which means they're going to five. i think that they're showing tremendous rigor when everyone else is kind of really whispering past the graveyard. the yellen interview is interesting. she wants to present herself as being a real seer, and good for

her. god, there's a lot of self-promotion going on. >> jim, they're trying to wrap me up, but i get the feeling you will expand on many of those comments in just a couple of minutes and we will be watching. >> there was a comment on amazon that was positive, but most of the analysts were just worthless today. they ought to take a vacation. it's well earned >> coming up towards the end of the year he caonays to burn. jim, we will see you in a few minutes. tha thanks "squa "squawk box" will be right back.

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pretty much everyone expects to fed to raise rates on wednesday. not our next guest, though he says he is fairly confident the fed will go 75 basis points and the market will sell off joining us right now, greg branch, managing partner of veritas financial group as well as a cnbc contributor. craig, you are in the camp of mohamed el-erian >> i just am certainly dispassionate about the things i deduce and this is just what the tea leaves say let's look at the three gauges that the fed told us were important. number one was unemployment. remember they predicted last time that unemployment would reach about 4.4% next year

it's held steady at 3.7% that jobs report was fairly high, indicated accelerating wage growth, so that gave the flashing grid. the next gauge was the deflation gauge itself we needed to see a meaningful contraction in inflaigs. well, we haven't seen that yet so, we get a cpi on tuesday. if that's anything less than 7%, perhaps that gauge will start to flash red, but i anticipate that we'll probably see something plus or minus 20 basis points for what we saw for october. the last gauge, and maybe the most important gauge, is they would consider taking course if we saw a meaningful contraction in the economy well, the third quarter never was revised upwards so all their gauges are flashing green. in fact, i would submit that none of these are even in the range where they would need to even think about proceeding with added caution. and so, what have we seen since powell came out and spoke?

we saw a hot jobs number we saw a hot ppi number, as cramer just alluded to, coming in 20 basis points above on overall, 30 basis points consensus on the core, and so all of the data that we have received since powell spoke indicates 75 >> so, greg, if you're right, does that mean that you're positioning yourself in a way where, you know, you don't want to be in equities because you think there's a big drop about to happen? >> andrews, as you well know, that's been my position all year if answer is, yes. >> we only have literally 30 seconds left there have been some ups that you have also missed we had that, what -- >> we're in a bull market in the dow. >> fair enough, guys but when you see another dow drop coming around the corner, i think you're happy to mess those up i messed up in july, arguing

that whole rally was based on superstition, and i think this is as well i think people will be surprised. >> time will tell. let's not count your chickens before they're hatched there >> greg, time will tell, and we are running out of it. we have a hard break, got to get to our friends on "squawk on the street" in just a couple, well, frankly, seconds thank you again. we'll see you very soon. see what jay powell has to say in the meantime, join us tomorrow "squawk on the street" begins right now. >> good monday morning, welcome to "squawk on the street." setting the table for the last big macro week of the year, fed decision, ecb, cpi, retail sales, and today, biggest merger monday in a while. more than $50 billion worth of deals. road map begins with a key week for the economy. cautious trading ahead of cpi on tuesday. that fed rate decision and yellen saying that inflation headwinds are