>> short-term treasuries particularly the two-year. it's start to make it's way to. >> joe t.? >> personally long in visa good stuff, thanks everybody. "the exchange" begins now. we'll look at why and what that could mean. plus, welcome home the housing market getting a reprieve as rates pull back from the highs. why aren't more buyers ready to jump and set to be grilled by congress tomorrow as investors

flee the crypto, but first, let's got to the market. >> i have a story about real grillz, and i'll tell you about that in a bit. the dow jones industrial average is picking up its steam. now a solidly positive 9 dow industrials up about 322 points, the s&p, 3961, up 27 by the way, this represents the highs of the day right now at the lows to give you an idea, we were still up one point or one handle weber is one of those stocks, horizon therapeutics, up 15%, 111

1 111. it agrees to be acquit so amgen shares up before the headlines came out, verizon shares were roughly $79, so in about a week and a half, up to $111 coopa software agrees to be bought now, it goes for $81 per share as you can see, it's been a stock in decline, severely so, since the pandemic highs up 27% today, and then weber up. it agrees to be taken private by bdt capital. why is that important?

that same company was the one that took them public in august of last year at $14. they're going to take them private again as $8.05, so shares up about 24%. a lot of dealamerica it really is a merger monday. >> i did like that story about weber. this was not long in the public eye throws who invested in this while it was public, certainly did not. >> those shares right now, if it comes to fruition, that the deal gets done, at some point maybe it won't surprise the public again at some point down the line. >> theshld by grilling the bankers. >> good. history will tell you whenever there's a recession,

the fed eventually comes to the rescues. if we go into recession this time around, the odds of such a rescue could be very much lower. steve liesman has more. >> kelly, yeah, exactly, it shows the fed is expected to hike tomorrow and into next year, then hold for several months, but if inflation remains high, respondents to our survey do not expect the fed to come running to the rescues 50 basis points expected tomorrow that will brings up rate up to 4.5. the peak rae more aggressive, that would be coming in april 2023, and then expected to stay there for nine months despite a 61% probability of a recession we asked if inflation stayed, but the economy is in a moderate recession, just 13% thinking the fed would cut rates.

55% think that the at the will stop hiking and not cut. 32% say the fed would keep hiking how about the balance sheet? at even larger 68% say the fed will keep cutting the balance sheet despite a recession. 32% say the halt of reduction. there's little expectations, by the way, that congress is going to help out the economy as it has in the past. that will make it more painful for average americans. just 36% say that congress will increase unemployment benefits, just 23% say it would increase government spending with 77% spending that they won't do that now, all of this amounts to a reason for the fed to be careful not to get into recessionary trouble with the economic, but at the same time the survey shows the market will fight

expect aches even with a contracting economy, and probably that is what the fed wants the markets to believe i think this was the late '60s, early '70s, where we would have inflation, but they didn't do enough to quell inflation. inflation expectations friday and again today, i think both on the one-year horizon, do show signs of falling really good news on the one year, that's the most on report. it goes back to 2013 less good news, but less dramatic on the three-year and the five-year, which of course are less problematic, but, kelly, just show you know, i did some regression, that one-year expectations is tied at the hip to gasoline prices if gasoline prices fall, one-year expectations fall

so that's a big part of that i think the fed can be comfortable that the longer-run are not out of control, but i think they'll still believe they're too high. >> for sure. they could go back up. thank you for now, i appreciate it steve liesman. my next guest says it doesn't matter if the fed is willing to step in to prop up the economy, because they won't needs to with me is barry knapp, new grandpa, too, right? >> that's right. >> huge congrats what kind of world is this child walking into you don't think a recession is imnents? >> i don't the thing that occurred to me around that, is that i don't know dave zervos is part of the survey, but we were the only two we've heard talking about a

typical recession, which were the last three, credit driven, both nominal and real growth contracted, to liked ones we had in the '70s, where not only did things keep rising, in those cases, the earnings down side is much less significant than it is when you have credit fueled crunching. we were talking a lot about potential government support there's already excessive government support the reason that inflation was truefully intractable during that period was not because of the fed's stop/start, but the fiscal impulse just continued to pace in jackson hole, they had something titled inflation is the --and argued the root caus

in the '70s was fiscal impulse, which is prevalent today so knolls we get a big -- but really surged in the pandemic, it's unlikely that consumer spending will fall off a clip. capital spending looks really robust the party most hurt by the inverted yield curve is the government and the fed, not so much the private sector. >> literally, too, the payouts they have to make. i know you are a student of financial history. when you say the last 11 times they've inverted, ten of those times ended in recession now we're in episode 12, okay? is this time going to be different? >> well, there's a couple things to think about i'm very skeptical of anything where the bimplg-day-old mark rate, the longer-term rate is

the belly of the curve that's because the fed's balance sheet is still exerting what the kansas city fed estimates to be 160 basis points of downward pressure on that part of the curve. now the 5s-30s inverted is a big more of a true signal. there, yes, that signal is on the precipice of saying we could have a recession on the other hand, credit spread models have a really good track record as well the probability from credit spread models into a recession is more like 25% >> which is fascinating. i take your point. we all know, too, this is a complex investing time, so what is the investigation, are you bullish or bearish on the stock market

would you be in some of the higher-yielding parts of the credit market? what do you like >> i think the right way to think about the first half of the year, and i think it's a bit after contrarian view, as inflation falls from 9 to 4, and the think the path a straightforward, around about june of next year i've been equating it or drawing the analog to early 1985 but the at the stopped, the stock market was up, up to 22% even by the fed acknowledged the pause. by that point i think the an along will break down. >> what i put in the fed survey is the fed would start hiking against slowly, and be liking at the end of the year. for me, the first half of the year when the inflation is falling 9-4, and we were not

headed into recession. that could be good for risk assets, for cyclicals, for high-yield, any spread assets. mortgaging are really live, look attractive mortgage reits look like a good spot to be in. >> really? >> it's the second half of the year for me that's the biggerrer issue. as the author wrote in that fed paper referenced earlier, the costs of the fed trying to solve fiscal inflation is absolutely prohibitive. >> so you think they're not going to end up having quite the stomach for it all right. >> absolutelyconvinced 4% unemployment, and they will have very weak knees. >> barry, great to see you again. cot grass again, and thank you

for joining. >> thank you, and congrats to you, too, kell november saul the biggest bit counsel outflows, and sam b b bankman-fried will testify on capitol hill tomorrow. we're back in a moment (vo) hi, we're visible. a different kind of wireless company. in sports, catches are a good thing. wireless? not so much. so we don't do catches. with visible you get unlimited data for just $30/mo. switch now to get a five-year rate lock. not a catch in sight.

welcome back to "the exchange." let than two months ago, is the average was 7.25 for a 30-year unfortunately the buyers really haven't come back. diana olick has more. >> buyers are still, as you say, stuck. 30-year rates ended november at 6.58%, and they're down even further now, still more than twice the rate of a year ago despite the drop, overall lock volumes, when you lock in a rate on a mortgage or reify down 68%

annually currently 15% of all rate lox when a year ago they were outpacing the homebuyer mortgages, but now homebuyer loan volumes are still starting to feel the big pain, homebuyer rate lox down 22%, and the dollar volume of loan lox dropped an even heftier 37%, down more than 50% from a year ago. that speaks to home prices starting to ease up a bit, another sign of prices easing, also adjustable rate mornings. they surged when prices roses, but they have moved back down. buyers stint to be high letter risk-averse. once the rates hold back a bit, they ran right back to fix

it's kind you will fallen off a cliff, and real estate agent are saying they see nothing. the simp answer is affordability, the fact that rates have come down, if you look at the averages person, that's saving you $125 a month, but if you put it in the longer-term context, it's still extremely unaffordable, even with rates coming down you're seeing that play out in the rate lock numbers. half as many folks as they did last year. it's extremely unaffordable. >> what seems to be the

difference is there's still pent-up demand, that people are basically waiting. you know, they've been priced out of a lot of homes or competed out of those homes. what does that pent-up demand tell you >> prices are still out in front of the incomes and interest rates. the bright spots, there are a couple different things. wen is the pent-up demand that we saw last spring, last fall in 2021, how hot the market was it tells you there is a lot of pent-up demand there i think there's a lot of upside potential. there's no clear sign of where that inventory is coming from.

pulling back in both off and november >> where is the new equilibrium going to be? >> there's no clear answer if you look at what the numbers tell you right now, where interest rates are today, it says incomes are shy by 45%. none of those are going to move that much any time in the near future so i think we're looking at an extended period here of unaffordability in the market. you're going to see prices continue to soften, incomes hopefully continue to grow and likely we'll see rates come down >> so last quick question.

more bullish on rend if that demand has to go somewhere, i'm thinking inflation implications itself. if you look at rent growth, it tends to lag we're seeing prices have fallen, so you're seeing prices soften i think you'll see that rent growth continue to fall there. keep in mind we're see prices come down, but we're on a downward trend >> so maybe expect more softness there, just a long wait if you want affordable. andy, thank you for your time today. still ahead, we're two weeks ahead, but one technician is saying not so fast he'll join us with a charge that's flashing a bearish

signal boeing is leading the dow, and reiterated their overweight on the stock it's now up 50% since october 1st, on pace for the best quarter in 40 years. "the exchange" is back after this

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where health can go. welcome back let's take a look at the green behind me. the dow is up, and a quarter percent for the cause knack. the dow is clearly leading the way. pfizer is a session lows, seeing revenue from the rsv vaccine,

but shares are up about 1% today off the back of that news. box jumping, jpm sees free cash flow projection it's up 7% docusign continuing its recent run this stock is up 23% in the past week. 7.5% today fively the ten-year yield is jumping to session highs we're not a 361, look at this pop here, top of 9 how should we had a ten-year auction the yield is almost four basis points right before peter boockvar called it terrible.

contessa brewer has a cnbc news update right now the supreme court said today it will hear a second case to revise president biden's student loan forgiveness plans lower courts have blocked the debt program china is taking the u.s. to court at the world trade organization a government-backed newspaper says china's defending its legitimate interests and the golden globe nomination have been announced the organization that selects them is trying to recover from scandal and boycott over diversity and alleged ethical issues which have sort of new york it off nbc this year. the banshees of inisherin says that five nomination -- with six not nations. i have my movie watching cut out

for me, but like you, kelly, at on home there's other things going on. >> exactly contessa, thank you very much. sam bangman-fried will testify before the house committee tomorrow we'll get more on his take "the exchange" will be right back when you're not at home, but to monitor threats to your hybrid workforce wherever they are... you need more than technology. you need cdw, who gets to know your business and can design and deploy custom solutions, with pre-configured hp notebooks with hp wolf security. ai-enabled threat detection and remote management protect your endpoints 24/7, giving your defenses some real teeth. bummer. hp makes always-on remote security possible. cdw makes it powerful.

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welcome back to "the exchange." ftx's blowup leading to a report am of bitcoin being removed from platforms, according to "financial times." while some have been powering down, my next ge is still, strike is launching in africa, allowing customers to instantly send funds across borders. great to see you >> kelly, good to see you. welcome back no, they're not going to get me to put on a suit

get out of here with that nonsense. >> people are so furious, and he's trying his best to claim denial do you know him personally >> no. goodness, no why would you not be curious one of the biggest financial crimes in recent memory, yeah, if i were someone who committed a massive crime, seeing prison sentence, i'm sure he's lying about everything no, everyone thoob violently upset. bitcoin's plague is the alt-coin criminals, but what are we going to do? i've been seeing this for ten years. we keep moving and building. >> i'm sure the bulls will be relieved to hear there's a legitimate use for this, but it's ironic that -- powering

transactions in other currencies would should i be a holder the bit coin when it's just going to end up being like a payments network. >> there's a lot to take in. everyday person on the couch has a tough time keeping up, but we'll divide it into two you should look to hold things that are scarce, right if there's a fixed supply, all it takes is demand for that thing to go up so bitcoin is a pretty big deal, and you probably should hold it because of that. now, how can you use bitcoin we have used the fact that bitcoin is the first digital bearer instrument, kelly that means it's a physical digital object if you have a physical digital object, you can send physical

value, physical, like this is my cent phone, a physical object. however, i'm not strong enough to move it to nigeria in a minute i can throw a bit counsel into nigeria. how many dollars do you want to get into nigeria take the dollars, i'm going to turn it into bitcoin, my 5'8" self, where a local partner with convert it if we just do a big of work on enchanges rates, then you have just reinvented, why hold it because it's scarce. why use it because never before -- >> is it ever going to have a real-use case here in the u.s.

>> do you think it will have a real-use -- i don't notice, i go to whole foods, being hit by cpi and -- i like grass-fed steaks, so it has a use case everywhere. what is the regulatory environment? i think she's got to grow up, kelly. there's bitcoin and there's everything else. i think everything else looks like a lot like a security i think it's time regulators are more leveraged to the rest of the world can have clean, moral, responsible access i think that will happen after events like this, i don't know how they can afford to not.

what lessons are being learned from el salvador >> no, my biggest takeaway bitcoin is hope, equality, it's inclusion, kelly, i just picked up a phone and called a 30-year-old entrepreneur africa we learned to do something that's swift and d. america was the house on the held, the place you migrated too for equality, for freedom, for equal rights for equal opportunity, and not to get into where america is today, but i think bitcoin is becoming that for the world. people look at this technology as something they with believe it and aspare to it represents a different world. >> it's volatile, though if el salvador has lost $60 billion because of the drop in

the value of bitcoin, for instance, it goes to show that even circumnavigating comes with its own risk. >> sure, but kelly, that's the fed's fault, right taking a step back, what would you real el safl done bought, british pound? facebook stock? >> u.s. dollars? >> u.s. dollars are what has handicapped emerging markets in economies like el salvador, and build an extreme unfortunate reliance like the imf. they were very clear, hear, listen, it's not the prettiest road, but a noble road, a righteous road, a moral road tenth bitcoin is the best performing assets over ten years.

c'mon, kelly, no way >> listen, it's just that things looked different a year ago than they do today, so for the believers watching, jack, jack, what do you tell them, they have to hain on to the bitcoin? if you're holding bitcoin, my personal advice would be to take a five-year nap. if you're looking to exchange it in the next coming months, you're a tradetrade rstraders. that's a hard skill. hold and store your wealth in something that is scarce and could have a protected monetary policy i would continue to hold this asset because of its properties. price is not an accurate measurement of the actual properties of the asset. it is a reflection of the macro environment in things like the federal reserve. if you don't want to own bi bitcoin, real estate facebook stock this thing has every property.

it's scarce, its monetary policy is -- >> all right, all right, all right. we know the case >> c'mon. >> jack, you're powering ahead, launching strike in africa and we thank you so much for joining us today great to check back in. >> well back kelly. missed you. >> jack mallers is the ceo of strike still ahead, a stunning crypto collapse, the s&p is still holding. can it hold them into 2023 that's next when "the exchange" comes right back which saved investors over $1.5 billion last year. that's decision tech. only from fidelity.

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details a failure of corporate control at every level. in his written same, he says that ftx's collapse appears as to temperature from the absolute concentration of goal in the hands of a very small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals who failed to implement virtually any of the that is entrusted with other people's money or assets he then goes on to lift that could access hundreds of million with no effective -- the commingling of assets, that seems to be a contradiction to what he said himself in recent

int interviews he tried to ensure shows having money they're working hard to try to locate it he went on to say there are about a billion of digital assets that have been secured so far, and they're working to protect that against the risk of theft or unauthorized transfers. he also defended the chapter 11 filings of all the divisions he said that was necessary not just to prevent a so-called run on the bank, but also to give them time to protected assets. i'm sure lawmakers will have a

lot of questions for him tomorrow he'll have more to say when he testifies. >> did you say he said a billion had been recovered by what some measures as a $8 billion hole? >> ray said he's secures $1 billion tbd. typically we receive the written testimony a day before the hearing or at least in advance i checked, he hasn't tested it yet. now, it fits right where it was, but does that reveal investor resilience or complacency. mike santoli, hi >> i think on the surface you at

least have to conclude that the s&p 500 has shown resiliency relative to what one might have expected, we have kind of gone sideways from that period in december it's now 3, 3.25 to 3.3% also, the fed balance sheet is down by $400 billion 2023 earnings forecast cut by 8% so there's been a lot thrown at the market you've kind of stayed in that range. down here, stagflation, down here we're down ahead of recession, so i think it's a fair debate, but right now, i think that the expectations are so low for going into next year

by the wall street strategists and professional investors, take a look at consumer discretionary the last six months, but it's neck and neck, equal weighted. it shows you there's just enough nominal growth that it takes a while to wear down. >> and then are the cyclicals going to behave better so those things are kind of a leadership profile. >> but that's definitely something -- really just took a

dive early last week. >> mike, thank you coming up, we've been talking about the market broadly. there's a big difference between where the dow and the s&p are headed what the mixed signals mean for your money, next

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welcome back to "the exchange." the s&p has round-tripped the last seven months. my next zest the charts are indicating a 3% drop, but and you have that the seasonal tailwinds could kick in. carter, it's great to see you. inches and, you have a big former influence, the united health care is some 11%, but either way, the dow is more defe defensive, right?

>> you know, there's for now, it seems to be a problematic market we have some great routes that have started right in january. and, of course, we've gone straight down since the bear market, obviously began in 2018. if you look at the charts, we have an unfilled gap, and i

think that's going to be check out. >> i don't know if we can go higher >> that's understood, fine, but we have to retest that area? >> that's right. can the elaborate on that? >> so, remember one is a price oscillator when i speak of relative strong, it's also relative to its peers. it's called a grade curve. we know, in life, people don't

like these if the stock doesn't act well they understand in sports, a pitcher throws a few bad pitches, the coach gets him out. relative performance is one of the great factors in investing how does a stock act relative to the market, relative to its sectors and peers is one of the most important things you pay attention to are there any you would pull out? >> for instance, with tech, we know the s&p is up 8%, the tech sector is up 10, semis are up 20 nvidia up -- but it's still ages below, moving so many percent below its all-time high. >> so this is when you actually think the relative strength is sending you a bullish.

>> things like amazon, things like tesla, things like baxter, there are all sorts of stocks. think about it, almost all equities have bounced since 2013, globally if you haven't attacked anybody's money, people have said there's something wrong with you they're not buying it for a reason. >> that's interesting, especially since you mentioned tesla. carter, we'll leave it there thank for your time. good to see you. carter worth ahead, american scientists make a huge breakthrough we have the details and what it means for both traditional and renewable ursoces in stocks. that's coming up next.

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welcome back. >> yes, crew is negative for a year we're here about $73 a barrel,

but thanks to a new scientific breakthrough, the days of worrying about oil prices could be over. brian sullivan is here with the story. nuclear infusion, bri, what did it do? here it is, financial times kind of scooping the american energy that lauren livermore vice president achieved a breakthrough of manmade energy to me, that's creating power from another power, in this case a laser. they call that in the biz a net gain it's never been achieved before. a good way to look at fusion energy, it's kind of a manmade sun. if this breakthrough is real and

r replicatable, it is effectively limitness. a department of energy official tested me last night, because i was posting about it, and this person said, if it does work as being reported, it could effectively end all current power sources, coal, natural gas, wind, similar, they're gone now, this is the reason to hope, but there's still a lot we don't know so, kelly, we should learn more >> i'm not going to pooh-pooh the government, the whole energy complex, brian, but there's a big difference between creating a teensy bit of energy out of a lot of energy and being ability to create a lot of energy here

what is the scale here and what do they think is achievable in the next 5 to 10 years? you don't want to create -- and only power a light bulb, for instance >> that's true it's also about the cost, kelly, is it commercially viable, if they can replicate it. this is a huge if. this has been the promise for 15 years. but we don't people spending bills i don't on wind mills, and saying, you know what, fusion is coming, so let's scrap this. >> i'll be curious what they say. i suppose, no matter how much money you spend, if you're able

to generate enough money that's unlimited, then you should theoretically be able to reach a huge return on that investment >> cue "here comes the sun" by the beatles, your theme song [ laughter ] >> thank you that does it for "power lunch. is next. thank you. >> here's what's ahead wall street's big week revolving around washington, d.c. from the fed decision to the ftx hearing, to friday's funding deadline, but there are three stocks to watch. that could give investors some hints about the overall economy. plus we have a deal frenzy m&a activity