shows some economic downturn fear bus not panic just yet. some of those people are chasing those. >> as we discussed in our "wonky but worth it" -- >> i love shows with you talking about this >> up session highs of 358 as we hand things over thanks for watching "power lunch," everybody. >> "closing bell" starts right now. >> stocks are higher ahead of key inflation data tomorrow morning. will that report clear the way for a year-end rally this is a make-or-break hour for your money welcome to "closing bell." i'm sara eisen take a look at where we stand right now in the market. getting a nice rally, up 1% on the dow, about 359 points or so, the s&p 500 up almost a full percent. 10 out of 11 sectors stronger right now. consumer discretionary only one in the red because of tesla, down more than 5%. everybody else is higher energy is leading the pack up

more than 2% crude oil rallying more than 3% today as the nasdaq bounces back, up 0.75% we're coming off a down week and a week where oil prices lost 11%. the market gets a boost following a trio of big deals as well amgen buying horizon therapeutics for more than $26 billion, biggest health care deal of the year tomo bravo acquiring coupa software, and d.c. capital makers takes on weber grill private for nearly $4 billion, al those moving higher today coming up, peter orszag, perfect day to have him from lazard. why the market could see more m&a. but do to the dashboard with mike san toll mike where we have the banks expected to hike 50 basis points >> we get the consumer price

index before that. the market realizes these decisive catalysts are ahead of it, but it's a pretty well hedged market, last ten days, readings of people buying. the market has held up above where it sort of had to, 3,900-ish level at the lows recently today pushing the highs on the day. basically, it's entirely contained within friday's range. ahead of that cpi number, and i point out go back to may and be at these same levels up here, soft landing seems more likely, down here seems less likely we're somewhere in the middle. look at this chart of the s&p 500 relative to an index of every stock that's not in the s&p 500. it's called the s&p completion index. that's the etf that tracks it. in 2020 and 2021, this high-momentum bull market, i kept pointing out how this was racing ahead and outperforming

it's not just small-cap stocks, it's large, no-profit stocks that are not yet in the s&p 500, things like uber, like snowflake, as well as stocks like blackstone and smaller-cap stocks it seems they were the edge of the risk appetite more they've given it back and more it's more like up there. really been this kind of wringing out of some of the more exciting or speculative areas of the market we just don't know if that's done >> and the inflation report tomorrow. >> yeah. >> i think the new york fed data on household inflation expectations notable today, a record drop for the one year that's got to be reassuring for the fed. >> the market did respond to that even though it seems like historically this is not something the market tends to move on it marched higher in the equity market when you got those numbers. >> kind of counteracts the hot cpi report. >> exactly >> mike santoli. big week ahead for the u.s

as mike mentioned, tomorrow we get november's cpi, consumer price index, the fed decision on wednesday, and november retail sales on thursday. joining us now, samir, it looks like we're getting a tick up in the markets. is this positioning ahead of the inflation report tomorrow? >> yeah. it is a reason you've seen rates falling. you've seen credit trends falling, the dollar falling, oil falling, which you pointed out all those are good for markets from the standpoint of they take the pressure out of the system with respect to financial conditions easing, and oil, you know, kind of being that double whammy of higher inflation and crimping the consumer. that's been a nice thing going into the holiday season. at least right now things are looking pretty rosy. the tricky part is probably the next 5% is driven where cpi comes in unfortunately after that, even if you get up to to that 4,100, 4,200 level, things get more difficult because as inflation

comes down to 4% pretty easily, after that things get tricky >> right so that sums up your view and outlook, talking about the 2023 outlook. are you telling your clients to fade any rally we're getting in the next two weeks you're bearish for next year >> in the near term, we think the first half will be pretty dicey. that being said, our target production is 4,200 to 4,500, so we see gains from current levels unfortunately the markets are looking past the valley we probably see in the first quarter area >> weaker in the first half then the fed stops and you turnbull senate judiciary committee. >> exactly inflation will come down probably closer to 2.5 if we're right into the end of next year. that will set the stage for the fed to cut interest rates. we also think that a recession should be the best case for investors next year. it's probably a much-needed kind of ingredient for inflation to come down to have a recession. so once that recession happens,

once inflation comes down, the fed starts to cut interest rates, and with markets being as sensitive as they are to easing policy, we think they'll have a pretty good recovery in the very last part of 2023. >> you really think inflation is going to come down to 2% by next year and they'll be in a position to cut rates? >> we do a lot of that has to do with -- >> how do you have the visibility there that's not -- i feel like everyone expects it to come down next year but not all the way to 2% >> yeah. and a lot of it has to do with, again, we think they're going to be much tighter in the first part of the year, right? so the fed is continuing to tell you they are here to fight inflation. a lot of market participants have kind of dialed down the rate expectations. again, we don't think the fed will be as complacent at markets think. it could be that right now the biggest surprise in the first half is the fed has to go further to fight inflation in terms of interest rate hikes >> that's why i think this week everybody is expecting a 50-basis point hike, i think the

mystery is around the dot plot, which can be confusing, but it gives us a sense of where they think that peak rate will end up for the fed. you see that higher than, what, 5% how high >> that's just it. we don't know. but right now today, given how play sent the market is, it could end up being higher. if markets are driven off expectations versus reality, we're not so much betting the fed will go to 5.25, 5.5, but they might have to because the markets are easing financial conditions to an extent where inflation could be a problem for no other reason that markets are making it a problem. if all these speck la tich areas mike talked about start to do again, more recently crypto doing better, smaller caps doing better, if all those areas start coming roaring back, it could lead to inflation from a market standpoint which was initially a commodity standpoint >> you expect the spooe &p to e higher next year but a lot of

turbulence, especially in the first hatch. what sort of sectors are not pricing in a recession that you expect, and which sectors would you want to be in on the other side >> consumer discretionary and real estate. the path toward recession leads to the consumer feeling worse about their situation. you have to get consumers to pull back on their spending. the only way to do that is drive up the unemployment rate and to tightening conditions to an extent where they think twice about borrowing to pay for their spending and so we don't like consumer discretionary. real estate is very heavily tilted towards still now residential real estate towards back to the office again, not saying there isn't progress being made, but it's still pretty slow and also the underweight on real estate the areas we like are energy, technology, and health care. we think there's a lot more durable demand for those goods and services and that they'll be able to power their way through

the recession because of their earnings growth. >> sameer, thank you for joining me >> thank you >> sam bankman-fried set to testify remotely tomorrow during that house financial services hearing on the failure of ftx. up next, bitfury ceo brian brooks, what he'll be listening for tomorrow we are at the highs of the day, up 403 on the dow. consumer discretionary positive, so every sector is higher in the s&p, also rallying 1%.

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ftx's ceo releasing his testimony ahead of tomorrow's committee hearing on the crypto exchange collapse. ylan mui >> in a statement, ray promises to maximize value for ftx customers and creditors to help mitigate the harm suffered by so many he blamed the collapse on the absolute control wielded by a very small group of grossly inexperienced and unsophisticated individuals who failed to implement virtually any of the systems or controls necessary. just a few examples he detailed, senior management had access to systems that stored customer assets, private keys without effective security kol controller or encryption, the ability of alameda to borrow funds without effective limits,

to mingling of assets and the lack of documentation for nearly 500 transactions within ftx. he also included the inclusion for the bankruptcy filing saying u.s. was not operated independently and chapter 11 was necessary to revent a run on the bank and allow his team to identify and preserve assets ray would not comment on the founder sam bankman-fried's recent public statements but merely said he's conducting a professional investigation in a professional manner, but he did keep open the potential for seeking information from bankman-fried as appropriate we'll hear both sides of the story when they testify before congress tomorrow. >> a lot there thank you very much. ylan mui brian brooks from fit fit. he was the acting comptroller of the currency i have so. many questions for you you're a lawyer, the chief legal officer of coinbase. what do you make of this

testimony from the current ceo of ftx is there fraud here? >> sara, as you listened to ylan mui, it sounds like a fraud indictment to me there's been an attempt for sam to show himself as an unknowing ceo. >> who's looking into this is it the justice department >> well, you'll have a variety of agencies looking at this. this is one of the strengths and weaknesses of the american system, is so many regulators have an interest in this, but definitely the department of justice will be looking at mail fraud and others you have representatives on the financial services committee asking questions this week they'll decide what the policy response is and whether we overreact or appropriately react. >> he's been on this unusual media blitz going back and forth

on twitter, holding conferences virtually and interviews it's unusual for something like this with a company that has imploded and lost a lot of people money are you saying you don't buy this whole he's innocent, he didn't knowingly commit fraud or do anything to harm people >> sara, all i know is on the "sopranos" junior lost his memory right before his trial. it's funny how that works. and he went on a charm offensive the show people just how little you remember and how tough it was to operate such a big business but this was a person who feels a high flier and was leading the industry for a significant amount of time before he forgot everything i'm not buying it. i think it's "the sopranos" all over again >> are you -- you have to be impacted is ethereum impacted you're on the board of voyager, supposed to be built out by ftx. >> ftx had fingers in a lot of pies including voyager and others including lots of other

lenders and mining platforms and the like bitfury doesn't have a direct investment one way or the woer these guys, which is, you know, a good thing in circumstances like this. but one of the things sam tried to do was touch as many possible crypto businesses as he could so as to make himself the indispensable person that's why the bankruptcy is so complicated because at the end of the day it affects lots of people happily, bitfury is not affected, but lots of others are. >> what about ledger what happens to that company >> this is all going on in a public bankrupt tcy proceeding n new york voyager has lots of customers and valuable assets so somebody will come in to acquire that it's disappointing this has to go back to the beginning. >> is it harder to go after him because there was no regulation in place around the crypto industry and hard to define the assets themselves?

>> i don't think so, sara. i think this is one of the big misconceptions that both policymakers and the public have about the way crypto works the fact is if you lie to people, that's fraud, and if you take their money and they rely on your lies, that's criminal fraud. so you don't have to have a license or be regulated to be criminally responsible for doing what happened in this case the point of regulation isn't to go in and clean up disasters like this. the point of regulation is to prevent the disasters in advance. that's one of the reasons i've been calming for three years at this point to bring crypto inside of the regulatory perimeter. you know, if you're going to lend out money, that should happen inside of a bnk if you're going to trade securities, that should happen inside of a broker/dealer. the conundrum that the senate banking committee will confront this week is do we really want to keep crypto outside of regulation because somehow we don't think they deserve regular lax, or do we think the point of regulation is to protect people from this kind of a scam and sam would never have been able to get away with this

>> clearly it's the latter any tech regulation in washington is hard to figure out even after a big blowup like this >> part of the issue is you'll have a disagreement among people as to whether imposing regulations somehow validates crypto and this is why i say the other component is critical to understand, and that is crypto and exchanges are not the same thing. crypto is all about achieving a decentral itzed financial system where individual bad actors don't have this kind of influence. exchanges, on the other hand, are no different from investment banks. you know, ftx is not that different from goldman sachs they're buying and selling an asset. and at goldman sachs, they do that under supervision at ftx they didn't to me the solution isn't that complicated. we just need to see it staring us in the face. >> brian brooks, thank you for joining me >> sure. >> i'm sure we'll be talking to you soon let's check on the markets going strong, up 400 points on

the dow, every sector higher we're up 1% going into a big cpi report, inflation number for november out tomorrow morning. the nasdaq back up almost a percent in itself. tesla's a lagger, but consumer discretionary has gone positive now. to small caps are having a good day up more than 1%. look at tesla, continuing to fall, down 6%. wall street is buzzing about whether elon musk is now hurting the ev maker's brand by what he's doing on twitter. check out today's top searched tickers on cnbc.com. there's tesla on there not surprising, it's a sell-off for a lot of the ev makers, rivian pulling its deal with merced mercedes-benz, getting bad news there, 6%, and crude oil bouncing up more than 3%, down more than 10% last week. ndcrosoft with a deal with the loon stock exchange rounds out the top five n a long road,

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just want to show everyone we are at session highs and continue to accelerate in this final hour of trading. the dow up about 460 points, nasdaq up a full percent as we head into the close and into a big cpi report tomorrow. what's driving it higher energy is the leading sector by far today on the big bounce in crude oil, but technology is having a strong day, information technology right behind it, some of the chip names that are rallying, some of the software names after we got a buyout from a private equity firm. utilities and industrials are strong we're coming off a week when the s&p lost about 3%, biggest pullback from september. so positioning into inflation and the fed resulting here in a rally. what is wall street buzzing about? elon musk, of course baron's out with a new piece saying tesla's brand is suffering as elon musk tries to

save civilization, the article pointing to a survey saying negative opinions on the brand are outweighing positive ones. this comes in the wake of musk getting booed last night after dave chappelle brought him out on stage at a show in san francisco. musk also drawing ire after tweeting on sunday targeting the outgoing chief u.s. medical adviser anthony fauci and mocking the use of pronouns. shares of tesla are down more than 6% today. near the lows of the session for that stock, falling 25% since he took over twitter. the effect on tesla's brand is getting noticed by wall street new street research's analyst writing friday, "impact on brand perception in the general public is both visible and material." although he notes it isn't likely to affect core buying behavior in the near term. let's bring in mike santoli. hard to ignore the fact that tesla is being dragged down by twitter, which is no longer a public stock make sense

>> since he tweeted and politicized things, there has been acceleration in tesla shares it has underperformed. yes, the brand perception, it hasn't helped in terms of potential tesla buyers the other piece of it, though, is, you know, this was one of the most expensive overloved megacap stocks one year ago, and that unwind has lit a lot of others on a one-year basis it's basically performed like amazon and nvidia you can sort of say that's also happening, you know, below the surface. just this general retreat from these stocks by the way, tesla is still up something like 6 pu% on a three-year basis, meaning a lot of air had to come out of it and accelerated because of these issues >> if i was a tesla shareholder, i would be annoyed >> exactly it seems like he's only focused on twitter >> distraction what about financial liability >> the stock acts like it's a

who knows what could happen with this if twitter ends up in financial distress maybe it will end up being a margin loan on his tesla shares that replaces some ch the debt on twitter's books right now, which would maybe create a little more of an overhang he's sold a lot of tesla stock already to fund the initial purchase but, yeah, i think the general sense that, you know, if twitter is in trouble, if you consider it all a cohesive, you know, musk ecosystem, then you have to feel as if at some point maybe tesla ends up being the back stop i think that's a more distant issue, more immediately what does it mean for the brand and management >> it's not like tesla's business is falling apart at all. >> no. to be fair, the ev makers are struggling gas prices are way down, worried about consumer ability to buy expensive cars, the china issue obviously had nothing to do with twitter. >> right a weight as well mike santoli when we come back, lazard ceo

financial adviser peter orszag on whether today's deal making is a sign there's more m&a on the horizon. we'll be right back. did you know your health has more to do with your zip code than your genetic code? that doesn't seem fair. we agree. but where you live determines access to doctors, green spaces and fresh food. that's why we grow our own. smart. we don't think it's right that some people are healthier than others just because of where they live. that's why we're delivering food to areas with less access to it, and helping schools teach kids about gardens. wish they'd taught gardening at my school. you would have aced it. introducing elevance health.

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amgen buying horizon bravo buying coupa and a takeover of another. with us is lazard's peter orszag, the former head of lazard north america mergers and acquisitions it's not dead out there, peter what does this signal to you >> well, look, what i think we're seeing is there are some big forces sort of underlying tectonic plates that are pushing for more m&a so, energy transition, return to scale from ongoing technological innovation, a revolution in biotech, the decoupling of or partial decoupling of the global economy with china, and the rise of private capital, which has really been a dominant force in the past five or ten years so, you have those kind of drivers, and then on the countervailing forces, financing conditions, antitrust, generalized uncertainty.

it's interplay between the underlying tectonic plate forces pushing forward and some of the constraints holding things back. it will to and fro as the positive and negative forces interact with one another. >> on the financing front, which is why a lot of the capital markets activity slowed down so much this year, what are you telling clients? is that going to turn next year? >> there's been a little bit of a thawing or early signs of thawing, especially in investment-grade debt and credit but we're not going to see a significant shift until there's a shift in monetary policy, which you and i have discussed before that will be the big moment. and, you know, i think the question for many noninvestment-grade companies will be this interplay between that phenomenon, the sort of central bank pivot, and the maturity wall of a lot of debt

maturing in 2025, which is where a lot of credit market national championshipses are-- analysts looking. >> on the coupa deal, because it was a pandemic winner and we're wondering about these valuations of these companies that have just been brutally taken down this year, coupa was down 61% so far this year. do you expect more private equity buying up software or other covid-winning-type stocks? is that an area of focus for you? >> i'm obviously not going to comment on a specific transaction, but i think one of the things you're seeing also is that the longer that the new equity pricing is in play for, the more likely it is you'll get transactions for companies that are realizing this iss partially the new normal and that makes the transaction more possible. in addition to the financing continue strantss before, one of the other things that had been

holding up m&a at least in certain situations is this disconnect where companies thought it was worth 100 but it traded down to 50 and the board of the selling company wants to hang on in the hope it will get back to 100. >> on the financing -- >> that changes over time. in other words, that changes -- the more that you're in the new environment, the more likely it is that the seller will be amenable to a transaction. >> kwogot it do you think the fed should pause here >> i think the fed should pause here only about a third of -- it's a judgment about the relative pros and cons and the risk something like two-thirds of what they've put into the pipeline has not hit the economy. west pa we've only seen a third. i think we should pause and wait

to see how it affects the economy in 2023, see what the impact of that is, and also whether the disinflationary process continues. obviously, we have an important report out tomorrow. there is a little bit of a disconnect that's happening between the price dynamics where we had an encouraging cpi report last month, we'll have to see what tomorrow looks like, and the wage information where wage growth remains unabated. but for right now there's a lot more monetary policy tightening that is in play they've already done that will be hitting the economy and i'd rather wait and see what that does, especially because there is plenty of uncertainty coming in 2023 from the debt limit on, and it would be better to pause and wait and see than to go up and be forced to come down, which i think is a risk for both the fed and the ecb in 2023. that's not good for their outlook either. >> the fed would rather overdo

it they haven't seen enough evidence that inflation is down. with that in mind, what are your expectations for the economy next year? are you more bearish than the consensus, which sounds like it's somewhere between a soft landing and a shallow recession? >> we just don't know. the problem is the only thing we have to help us out if we get in trouble in 2023 is monetary policy because fiscal policy is going to be a mess, and that's because there won't be the political consensus to provide relief to the economy if that v we need it and if it looks like the debt ceiling will not be addressed in the lame-duck session in 2022 so it will be hanging out there in 2023. so, i don't know no one knows so far the higher-income consumers seem to be holding up remarkably well given the effect of the higher interest rates and equity prices, seem to be holding up so far. my point is if we get in trouble

in 2023, we've got no safety valve other than the fed re reversing itself because the other avenues and vectors are kind of blocked. >> you think they might be forced to cut rates is what you're saying. >> that's what the market is also expecting i old rather kind of, again, i'm repeating myself, but wait and see and adjust further if you see inflation picking up or if you see inflationary expectations taking off, that's the other thing that's important to remember, which is inflationary expectations, unlike in the 1970s, remain remarkably well anchors do far and we don't want to take a risk with that, i understand that, but still, it gives you room to adopt a sort of more wait-and-see approach than the fed is pursuing right now. >> peter, thank you so much for your time. it's great to have you on. a big deal day as well peter orszag of lazard we continue to climb, making new highs on the session look at the dow.

it's up 510 points s&p up 1.3%. when we started the hour it was up less than a percent the nasdaq up a full 1%. microsoft, amazon, nvidia leading the way. tech is still a big loser on the session, down 6.25%. the transports are taking off today. find out what's behind that when we come back power e*trade's award-winning trading app makes trading easier. with its customizable options chain, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are. power e*trade's easy-to-use tools make complex trading less complicated. custom scans help you find new trading opportunities.

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check out today's "stealth mover," boeing it's a high flier today. shares are lifting the dow on a report that air india is nearing a deal for up to 150 737 max jets that deal would help boeing get off the ground and india's fast-growing aviation ceremony dominated by airbus. boeing up 3.5% the only dow stock that is down right now is amgen as we've seen this big rally with the dow up 471 points amgen announcing more than $25 billion deal up next on the show, a top analyst on what bravo's acquisition of coupa means that story and transports driving higher and investors taking a big bite out of a pr ai of restaurant stocks when you take you incite "the market zone." completely... on its head. bringing legendary design...

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tabb 1 d a we are in "the market zone." mike santoli is here and rbc capital markets richie delauria and frank holland on oracle. let's talk about the rally in the final hour we're right off the session highs. the dow is up 470 points, s&p up 1.25%, and the nasdaq zooming, so are small caps. it's getting broader and stronger throughout the hour why? >> it's got the look, sara, of a rally that people deciding let's not get too negative heading into the cpi number tomorrow i'm not sure the markets are necessarily sniffing out

anything specific. the s&p was down 9 of the last 11 trading days coming into today, down a couple percent off of where we finished in november it seems as if getting into neutral means perhaps buying or at least covering some shorts. at the same time, volatility index is up a couple of points so we have the makings of people seeing the ability for the market to have a pretty sharp move one way or the other. there are also these report of jpmorgan coming out saying if we get a super light cpi number tomorrow, well under 7%, there could be a real rally in the s&p, but they say there's only a 5% chance. >> maybe people are overly negative after cpi last week and some of the mixed signals. look at those stocks leading the rally today, the dow transports up more than 3% right now, rebounding from the worst week for this group since september it's also one of the best performers so far this quarter after soaring 18%. some of the big winners today

include j.b. hunt, american airlines, norfolk southern and u.p.s. we watch this because as the recession probabilities are piling up, it wouldn't be so strong it's cyclically sensitive. transports down 14% for the year >> a similar move as the broader market here where it's just, you know, let's make sure that we don't foreclose of getting more on growth. diesel fuel is down cheaper than it was before the ukraine war started. so there's a few things out there that say if you really were selling the cyclicals and the transports in particular because you thought the economy was quickly skidding, maybe that doesn't seem like as solid right now. again, i don't see this being newsworthy, but the likes of fedex, u.p.s. up a couple participants each tells you it's

more about folks making sure they're not leaning against this comp economy too hard >> oil up and energy stocks up nicely coupa software soaring today on news private equity firm thoma bravo will buy out the company in an $8 billion deal. the purchase of $81 a share puts coupa's stock at a roughly 77% premium to its stock price three weeks ago before reports of the deal surfaced. let's bring in richie delauria, software analyst and managing director at rbc capital markets. how many coupa software deals like this are there in your space? >> thanks for having me. there's no shortages with coupa. you have an asset that has strategic value, that has good technology, that hit a lot of speed bumps along the way and had execution issues and maybe even lost a little bit of investor confidence over time. so we've heard of these as kind

of stalled growth companies, right, where the asset is there but there's still technology and strategic value. we could look at a new relic, a box. you know, maybe docusign if their stock was a little cheaper. there are a lot of businesses that could be good for private equity for all those reasons. >> what is your take-away from some of the details on this deal the price, the fact that reports indicate there were multiple interested parties looks like vista was one of them thoma bravo came in above it and where this fits in in the p/e portfolios >> yeah, absolutely. i think a number of things are surprising one, maybe the weakness as a business and they talk about some of the forward-looking indicators it's really tough. i think it speaks to, you know, some of the macro pressures plus sales execution issues that coupa was facing but the biggest thing was the amount of parties interested it was a double-digit number of

parties financial and strategic looking at them. most likely it was before vista and thoma bravo and thoma ended up winning in terms of where it fits in the portfolio, thoma bravo had another one earlier. a bit of having to back off systems with spending, management, and others in one. it could be really interesting >> mike santoli, what do you make of the deal price and, you know, the argument that there are other software stocks in here that just look too cheap? >> there's no doubt that private equity in this particular area really dedicated to software and other kinds of technology platform companies are going to be active. the lucky ones, so to speak, like coupa, can get taken out at a decent valuation relative to sales compared to the way the rest of the group is trading but keep in mind the deal price is like one quarter of the stock's peak from back a year

and a half or so ago that's the equationthat you need to solve for, which is what's a management company willing to take on today's numbers relative to where the stock has traded in the past there's going to be more deals the you look at the whole cloud space in general, it is trading at valuations on sales, not too far, in fact, below where coupa is being taken out of. the thing is there's just not enough i don't think m&a capacity, private equity capacity, to really mop up, you know, dozens of these necessarily in short order but certainly more than a few. >> you mentioned a few names docusign at the top of the list at least in the market, up 9% today. it's been hammered who would you bet on >> i would maybe expand that to not just private equity but strategics with acquisitions here i think a company like not just docusign, i think about zoom,

for example, would be a great fit for strategic vendors, dropbox another one i would look at and say this would make a lot of sense i think about companies like new relic where there are opportunities to layer on different pieces of technology, and that would be a great private equity asset to do a lot of turnaround behind the scenes. there's no shortage of candidates and these are all stocks trading significantly below where coupa is getting taken out and it just seems to make a lot of sense within either financial or strategic portfolio. >> thank you appreciate it, you joining us and naming some names. goldman sachs starting up two calls on the restaurant stocks today. the downgrade of cheese fake factory and brinker neutral. analysts are seeing underperforming traffic trends at both chains and are warning

elevated prices could squeeze the mid to high consumer they serve. brinker sees profitable growth given turnaround at chili's, but sales and margin pressure through next year as a warning goldman maintains its buy ratings on chipotle, mcdonald's, yum, and sweetgreen. i wonder how much has to do with the income bracket that these companies are catering to and where the pain is being felt right now in the economy >> yeah. it certainly has something to do with it. we're getting into a year where we won't have any kind of broad sort of reopening effect, pent-up demand for people going out, tougher comparisons, and probably limits to how much they can further raise menu prices at a time when still, you know, a pretty sticky labor market to hire so i think all those things fitzing in food costs have eased back, so i don't think it's dire, necessarily, that the economy as a whole holds out probably isn't as if these stocks are in real

trouble, but just those preferences to chipotle and mcdonald's, they're much more than defensive steady areas even though chipotle is an expensive stock. it's shown it can grow in a lot of environments. >> yum brands in that basket as well oracle, our friend is here with a key number to watch for post close. frank? >> oracle shares are moving 30% higher in q4 the biggest question will be cloud revenue. last quarter they saw substantial growth breaking through the previous quarters. oracle provides subscription services and infrastructure for cloud, making it an option if not a true competitor to the hyperscalers these numbers will provide a lot of insight into oracle's growth. dete softness from many cloud players, notably salesforce, they see a better showing in these numbers when the estimates could lead to a big pop of the stock according to analysts.

>> got it. frank holland, thank you very much up 1.5% into earnings. mike, want to hit the broader market because we are seeing a big rally. we talked about it ahead of a bigger inflation report for the month of november due tomorrow up about 1.36% so within the inflation report, i'm going to be watching food because that one's been st stubbornly high, especially at home as an indicator what else? rent prices have been a big component for why inflation has remained high. we hear anecdotally they're starting to roll over but who knows. >> it won't show up in a timely way in the government numbers. rent in general, the services side of the economy is where people are more concerned about the stickiness of inflation. blackrock saying it doesn't look like it's easing up, they're bearish on stocks because of that but i do think that that's going to be where the focus is and then of course is the number going to be any different than consensus to the point where it

disturbs the current outlook for what the fed is going to do in, say, the next day. is it going to move the ultimate consensus upside target rate for the fed funds rate with this one number probably not but i think the market will have to necessarily trade that prospect after we do get that result of course as we said earlier, folks are at least open to the possibility that a very cool cpi number means there could be pent-up rally potential because we are getting into that year-end phase >> a hot cpi number could do the opposite dollar stronger, treasuries selling off, a little bit of curve flattening with higher yields we have about two minutes to go in the trading day what are you seeing in the internals as we go into the close at the high? >> they strengthened throughout the day. better 2-1 in advancing versus declining. not a super high volume day. want to look at the pharmaceutical stocksrelative to biotech, talking about m&a and the prospect for deals

that's a two-year chart. big pharma is a defensive group. they've been stable. biotech has suffered and opportunistic deals are no doubt likely to happen even if it won't drive the biotech index to close that big gap. the volatility index up, in the mid-20s. clearly people see the ability for a pretty sharp reaction to whatever happens tomorrow. we're well off the lows there too. we've bottomed out around 19 about a week ago here we are at 25. >> mike, as we head into the close, up 522 points on the dow, one dow stock in the red today and that is amgen on a huge megadeal that it is buying horizon. everybody else is higher home depot, microsoft, and boeing add the most points to the dow's rally. s&p up 1.4%. we're coming off a week where it lost more than 3%, worst week since september, but a sharp rally into the close ahead of the cpi report the nasdaq comp up 1.25% as well

leading, microsoft, apple, nvidia, amazon, comcast with a positive rating for our parent company today on the sell side tesla a big notable loser today with the twitter drama they'll close down more than 6%. the s&p 500 closing up almost 1.5% that's it for me on "closing bell." see you tomorrow into jt "overtime" with scott wapner we're head getting started from post 9 oracle earnings are imminent we'll have the numbers and the stock move as it happens, really important especially on the back of salesforce. we'll see exactly what happened there. also, dan ives on why wedbush is stunning in the new year our "talk of the tape," cpi tomorrow, the fed decision wednesday, the stakes as you know to could not be higher, especially with