look, the market is not sinking into recession in a timely way based on how much people expect it to be there very soon so i think that's the sort of uncomfortable spot we're in. we kind of think we see where it's going but it's not actually happening quickly enough to redeem those trades. >> see you for your last word. i'll see all of you too. "fast money" is now. right now on "fast" inflation countdown. stocks stage a big rally ahead of tomorrow's all if important cpi report the last data point before the fed's decision on rates for 2022 should you believe the market's good vibes plus tesla's bumpy ride. the stock tumbling, down 25% since elon musk took over twitter. is his work at the blue bird being seen as a black mark for the ev brand. and later, so naughty, it's nice our traders take the wraps off their charts that have been so bad they might just be ready to be good.

a holiday spin on a "fast money" favorite i'm melissa lee. full house here on set tim seymour, tim f economists hoping the inflation is easing stocks closing near their highs of the day with the dow leading the charge, up 530 points. all three major indices putting in their best day of the month crude oil taking a big leg higher after hitting 52-week lows on friday interest rates higher too. how do you make sense of a market today >> it was a wild day for not a wild day we had a very big move in the s&p. the vix was up almost 10%. the vix is the one part of the equation as we may rally as we enter the next couple of weeks and last couple of weeks of the year that has me concerned because i think volatility is

too low. it's pretty much signalled tops and bottoms. top of the vix has been bottom of the market, et cetera so look, you have a case where i think everyone's expectations at least i think as we talk about this and the trend for the last six months about inflation peaking at least in terms of goods and commodities for sure, the question is how bad is the labor market but ultimately i think we have an environment for a softer ppi as a minimum i look at where the fed is and i think we've had the worst of the fed and i think that's an environment going into the fed meeting that people have prepared for maybe we'll get surprised. i think powell has a lot of work to do because i think he can't be overly complacent, but i think people feel the fed is in the rear-view mirror. >> we get what is expected out of the fed, karen. we were talking about the pull forward of a rally, the pull forward that we saw in october maybe it's just compressed maybe this is the groundwork for the rally through year ending? >> i don't know. we could see a very different

thing in ten minutes tomorrow if the cpi number is hot or very cool for that matter to me it was just front-ru runng of a cool number does that mean it's already priced in? i don't know i don't think we can look at what the fed is going to do until we see the hint from what the cpi is merger monday is generally a good thing because people see, oh, there's value in companies that didn't seem to be that valuable before the weekend. >> right and i do think this is a good time there's clearly optimism of what we're going to see in cpi numbers. it was also interesting, today was the day we got an article out in the journal that was highlighting how many analysts are expecting a soft landing we're seeing a little bit more of that than we have previously where peopleare expecting we can get through this without forcing us into a severe recession. i think some of that was the positivity you saw in the stock market today. >> and you can feel the tension.

the spx is on the fifth week of the tightest ranges it's been in everyone is waiting. we are discussing you get the numbers people wanting and they'll run it the question is not a year-end rally, it's about next year. do you examine in and see wholesale selling as happens in the beginning of certain years and i think that's a great risk. >> can i ask a question on the heels of that. do you see wholesale selling in years where there's been a down year >> it's both what we know is actually -- let's talked about the so-called santa claus rally. it's just a momentum study most years of up, 70% of the time markets go up a ear-end rally in december is just continuing what was going on so we're seeing that now as to your point, does a down year, is that the precondition for a bad january? there's no study that i've seen

that indicates that. >> the precondition is that interest -- excuse me, earnings expectations have not come down enough i just think when we look at both the structure of the market and where the as ipassive asset flows have carried the market. where's the s&p for 2023 on earnings we do this math all the time right now it's not at $200 it isn't at a place where i think a lot of people expect it can go now, the other side of that is i still think there's a ton of fear and sentiment and a lot of cash i participate in the bank of americas fund manager survey those cash levels are at significantly high levels. put/call aratios the wall of worry and risk to me is higher based on that. >> but do earnings estimates have to come down? if now we believe a soft landing is possible, maybe expectations

don't need to come down as much as we thought a month ago. i'm just throwing it out there if we think that is not possible and that is the consensus that we don't need that massive reset, maybe we just need a slight reset which we've started to see happening in this past earnings season. >> they might be higher or lower. here's something that is interesting. at this time every year wall street strategy is they put out their year-end price targets going back to 1998, wall street predicts an up year. this year they are predicting flat not all the strategists have been heard from -- >> but that's bullish. >> well, that's the question they're calling for a price group of 4,000 they always have a number that's 10, 12, 8% higher. >> i feel like a lot of strategists think the first half or first quarter, the first part of the year will be really rough and we'll rally into the back

half so very different. >> hard to know that, i wish i did. >> we wish you did too >> then it's win-win, right? >> courtney brings up you're having economists and folks saying maybe soft landing is possible i know powell and the fed has given us guidance that it's possible i feel like we borrowed a lot of positive growth in the pandemic also i think we have to pay the piper. leaving aside 500 basis points of fed funds that are going to get priced into this market, i think we avoided a recession that we deserved to have two years ago. i think some of that plays into you start to unwind some of these factors, some of this is very good for inflation. you remove some of the bottleneck and some of that that's kept pricing high and helped gdp honestly, recession to me is not a naughty word it's not even a naughty word when i look at where earnings need to go and look at great companies. i say this with walmart.

recessionary environment is not bad for walmart. this company goes from 2 to 3% earnings to flat, that's not a reason to correct the stock 20% but that's what they'll do to it and that's an opportunity as an investor. >> we haven't really seen as much of the layoffs as we are going to see, right? so to the extent that we look at some of these tech companies, like the faang, for example, this is the way they're going do go their earnings now is through layoffs, so for the stocks that may be a good thing if you have a job there and end up being laid off that's not such a good thing. maybe it's not so soft a landing, it's a recession that could still be good for some equities. our next guest expects the fed to take a hawkish tone let's welcome in paul mccully. paul, great to see you. >> good to see you. >> so how hawkish? >> i don't think it's going to be terribly hawkish. i think he was very bullish

going back to his brookings speech ten days ago and we're clearly in a new phase of monetary policy tightening it's going to be slower and we'll be finished, i think, in the next few months. but i think right now he probably will lean against the incredible enthusiasm as manifest by the deep negative yield curve right now that he's not going to be as friendly as the market hopes so i think it's a tactical bearish tilt on wednesday. i think fundamentally he's declared mini victory if you will at brookings. >> i'm curious, paul, how closely do you think the fed looks at the market reaction to very last-minute data like we're going to get with the cpi, in that if the cpi comes in lighter, does he then heighten the hawkishness in his speech and his commentary afterwards? is it that responsive? >> i don't think for the fomc at

large it's that responsive i think he will be responsive in how he sets the tone of the press conference based on what the number comes out tomorrow. but fundamentally i think the decision has been made for wednesday. they're in the midst of a second derivative pivot they are slowing down. they're going to do 50 this time and indicating they're going to continue slow, maybe go to 25 out in the first half of next year and then we'll have a terminal rate around 5%. so i think that's what they're going to say on wednesday. so the presser will be fine tuning, if you will, according to market sentiment. but i think the fundamental decision for wednesday has already been made. >> paul, it's karen. you said what you think they will do. what do you think they should do >> i think the fed has done a pot load of tightening this year i think the yield curve is telling that

we're seeing the good sector, the commodities sector manifestly roll over the housing bubble, and jay actually called it a housing bubble at brookings has popped and i think we have slower housing inflation. so if it was up to me, strictly up to me, i would say let's declare a pause after this one and see what's going to happen going forward. i'm not forecasting that but from a normative perspective, i think they have done enough now. >> paul, i see in the notes that you think the fed will actually pivot. in other words, actually reverse some of this hiking late next year i'm wondering what the context of taking some of this back will be is it that we are in a deep recession? what will cause the fed to start reversing course >> i don't think it requires a recession at all it simply requires inflation to

continue disinflating from 7 to 6 to 5 to 4. once you get south of 4, i think that it's open season for fed easing as the inflation rate comes down, you'll get even more inverted on the yield curve, cash to the belly of the curve so i think a soft landing requires a confirmation of easing, a pivot if you will. so it doesn't require a recession. and for those of us with gray hair, we can remember '94 and '95 where we didn't have a recession but we had an easing cycle in '95 so i'm looking at something similar to that. >> and it is fantastic gray hair the question i have for you, though, we talk about perception second and third derivative. you do a lot of philosophy l layered on top of your economics. do you think that the market is with the expectation that the fed is pivoting somewhat but the

conversation we were having which was about earnings expectations and where the market really should go, that ultimately we set ourselves up for not as bad of a 2023 i realize we're the traders here, but market perceptions that are two or three steps ahead and expecting what we're supposed to be thinking. what do you think? >> well, you're asking me to reverse engineer day-to-day market expectations. i think in general sentiment is going to swing based upon high frequency data and the marketplace will extrapolate high frequency into long term and hopefully the fed doesn't do that as we look out to '83, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic relative to the prevailing pessimism that we're seeing from the economics community notably on the real economy. i'm stunned that we have over

60% of my old profession forecasting a recession. and i'm not sure if they're using the yield curve or what they're using, but there's no reason to forecast a recession from this standpoint there is a reason to forecast a fed pivot and softer monetary policy once inflation comes down, and that's effectively what i'm forecasting. >> paul, great to see you. thanks, as always. >> thank you >> paul mcculley courtney, what do you think? if paul's scenario is true and we pause for now, reach the rate and reverse some at the end of next year, what kind of framework does that provide for equities >> equities have really been happening with inflation interface. i think it's an interesting point that he brings up that we don't have to have a recession for rates to come down so again i think i'm hearing more of this, there is more and more a possibility of that soft landing, which i do think is a

good sign. we have to eventually see rates come down to a certain point. >> were they to pivot that quickly, i think your answer is gold >> gold? what do you start that trade a year in advance? >> what is the rate at which the last -- you must know, what they stop raising and start reversing. what's the time frame on average? >> well into next year. >> yeah, i was going to say look at the fed futures curve and it tells you from may of '23 to may of '24 the fed will ease 100 basis points you should be buying well ahead of that. back to gold, i feel like we're giving away part of the show >> you're famous for this. talking ahead of segment just giving it up. >> he did turn his phone off, though. >> it's progress little things here anyway, up next, oracle getting

popped in the after hours session. we'll go inside the numbers. plus julian emmanuel waiting in the wings he'll tell us why the first part of next year could really affect those with weak stomachs "fast money" will be right back. this thing, it's making me get an ice bath again. what do you mean? these straps are mind-blowing! they collect hundreds of data points like hrv and rem sleep, so you know all you need for recovery. and you are? i'm an investor...in invesco qqq, a fund that gives me access to...

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welcome back to "fast money. earnings alert on oracle shares higher after a beat on the top and bottom line. those results driven by strong demand for cloud software. frank holland joins it with the latest on the conference call. >> the ceo forecasted that cloud growth this year would be about 30%. looking at the report, pretty strong with beats on the top and bottom line. outperformance in two key segment. its on-premise business strongly outpe outperformed, we've heard salesforce and palo alto networks mention hesitancy to close deals. the proxy for demand had a strong beat signaling a strong pipeline of business going

forward. oracle says also that eps would have been 9 cents higher if not for the rising dollar against other currencies but you have to look at this and just see in q4 the dollar has fallen 6%. so that's going to be a question about what that means for cloud companies going forward. >> frank, thanks for the latest. frank holland on oracle. a huge tailwind for a lot of companies. any companies that felt the pressure from a stronger dollar, tim. what do you make of these numbers. >> i think the second quarter numbers are very strong. when you think about the cloud business, there's a tailwind here if you look at the company from a valuation relative to its peers, some of these other folks are trading significantly higher multiples. oracle is down 5 to 10% this year and if you think about the performance, some of this is multiple this should be trading 17, 18 times which puts this stock closer to $100. >> speaking of outperforming the group, from its low, the tech

sector bottomed on the 13th. this bottomed on the 29th of september, two weeks higher. it's up 33%. that's triple the performance of the tech sector. to some extent you favor this kind of thing. >> is it overdone? it's had a big move. >> but it's not that steep relative to its 150-day moving average. >> karen. >> i thought we traded at an attractive pe. the pe is well above market. maybe that's fair, it should be. these are decent numbers but i'm not going to chase it. >> court. >> i do think there's been a lot of positives here but i would be more of a holder of this when you think at some of the fundamentals of oracle, a lot of their earnings per share growth has been from share buybacks they have $80 billion in debt right now. i think some of those things are not quite as attractive as you're looking for companies in this environment. coming up, amgen striking a

deal to buy horizon therapeutics could this start a wave of biotech buyouts? plus bracing for panic evercore's julian emanuel thinks we may be in for a rocky road. where he says we're heading from here back right after this.

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when you set up direct deposit. we've got a news alert on first solar. fortune is moving to the midcap index. this change will be effective december 19th. first solar seeing a pop of 1.7% after hours. amgen emerging as the winner in the race to buy horizon

therapeutics that's the biggest health caring asix this year amgen to pay $115.6 per share. the stock was trading in the 60s before it confirmed it was holding merger talks last month. is this a start of wave of deals in the pharma and biotech space? for amgen it's a needed deal they big drugs are going off patent but is it the first in a wave i guess is the question here. >> yeah, i think it probably is. we know there were other bitters here, right, so they're going to be looking for something to buy as they all face this issue of growth at various times, what's coming off patent and how their revenue streams are going to look but i also think that you see other people do it as the ceo of a company. it sounds ridiculous but you feel like i need to do a deal here it's musical chairs, i don't want to be left with nothing to

buy. i'm going to go out and find a deal. >> i definitely think you're going to see more of this. i think the health care space has looked really attractive they have healthy balance sheets and this is a good way to increase revenue sources some of those with the best drugs will have the best performance which i think you'll see in that race there. >> one way to play it if one wants to not bet on a name specifically but a theme, if you look at the xbi relative to the ibb, one is equal weight and one is skewed towards amgen and r rege regeneron. >> that's interesting. and if you think about a lot of the big cap biotech stocks, there's different studies out there, but the patent cliff that falls off the hill is a couple hundred billion dollars if you take the top guys of the ibb you've had j&j, pfizer, massive, massive deals. so we know this is an inevitability. this deal is one that's

interesting because the thyroid eye -- you never know. and i never pronounce things correctly. but this is a part -- th growthy part of the business that hasn't been that growthy. and i think that's one of the questions that people have, is the pipeline really that strong. >> but the question is also with all these cash and you're making these big deals, we've seen poor acquisitions before, where you give enough rope to the company and they do something terrible with it. we saw it with gilead. >> gilead seems to have been the poster child and the move into oncology and some of the sexier parts of the biopharma space are things that are very defendable. but again, there's big cash piles that can disappear overnight. you have to be careful. >> let's stick with the health care space options traders are making big bets mike khouw, what do you see? >> we're looking at gsk. it traded well over four times

the average daily call volume. all of that activity was dozen trade in the february 38 calls we saw a block trade at $1.25 and 23,000 of these calls traded this company did get a favorable court ruling last week that was related to the zantac cancer issue. >> mike, i'm just curious, how do you interpret what the projected move is saying not that it's -- not that it's doing a deal, or -- >> here's one of the things. with the cloud i think we had over it before that favorable ruling, that was fairly unlikely the company does generate pretty good cash flow and it faces like other mature pharmaceutical companies some of the same pressures that tim was just talking about. so they weren't going to do anything with that cloud hanging over them. but with free cash flow they have some ammunition.

>> how does that chart look, carter >> we have now filled the gap and sold back all the way, given back all the gains i think you buy it for a bounce. >> mike, thanks. mike khouw still to come, a christmas version of so bad it's good. we will hear why one of our traders think there is a beaten-down home builder that is so naughty it could be nice in the new year. next, julian emanuel joins the desk his must-see market call for 2023 after this break. "fast money" comes right back. get your trades to go with the fast money podcast catch us any time anywhere follow today on your favorite podcasting app we're back right after this.

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welcome back to "fast money. another check on the markets stocks jumping in the final hour, the dow closing 528 points it follows the dow's worst weekly performance since september. the s&p 500 also delivering strong gains today the positive momentum comes a day before the key cpi report and day one of the fed meeting. meantime, a new 2023 price

target on the street evercore isi expects the s&p 500 to end next year at 4150 that's only a 4% gain from today's close. but the path to that meager gain could be stomach-churning. julian emanuel joins us here on set. julian, great to see you. >> great to be here. >> one does not like to use the word "panic" on wall street and yet panic is the word i think you use when describing what we will see in the first part of the year >> so when you think about 2022, we've had this sort of what i call the lazy river of volatility down. you know, we hit bottom, down 25 and change and we've rallied back but there has never been a time where there's been emotion in this market, real, honest-to-goodness emotion and there is no bear market in history that hasn't had that emotional volatility swing. >> capitulation, blood on the

streets. >> absolutely. absolutely and frankly if you're thinking about it in terms of risk/reward or if you're thinking about it in terms of the fed's reaction function and the fed is telling you they want unemployment to go to 4.4% to sort of clear the labor force, you've never had -- you've never not had a recession with those kinds of numbers. so you put that altogether and for us, the narrative would be let's clear that out in the first half of the year and then get a really high value buying zone where people can put new money to work for the long term as opposed to this trading back and forth that's been the entire year. >> what is a catalyst for that panic? and i ask you because the markets are acting like the fed is under control we know what the fed is going to do, they're probably going to do 50 and then pause and let it rest for a little while. so do we see a massive reset on earnings are we going to see unemployment

tick drastically higher in the first half of the year >> well, we certainly are going to see the reset on earnings we've seen that. it's going to happen our suspicion is when we get to this next earnings season, the market's ability to slough off the downgrades that we saw in both the july and the october month is going to be less because it's a new year and there will be really more uncertainty. what it really is, is just getting closer to that recession. this is the kind of thing that actually happened in 2000 and 2001 you burst the bubble you had a rally back but the recession was still a year in the offing, and so the market held up and then once the recession became crystallized in people's minds, frankly the most bullish thing this market has going for it is the fact everyone knows there's going to be a recession. and carter brought this up earlier, my fellow competitors have an average price target of 4,000. that's what we used to call when

i was on the buy side a short squeeze in the making. >> i have seen a lot of these calls whereas the first half of the year it's going to be a difficult year but where do you see that in the year is this after the new year are we going to have a few more months of this and then see this in the spring? do you have an idea of when in the year we're going to see that >> we're thinking it's a midyear type of occasion basically you could get the market sort of churn for a couple of months discounting the fact that we know the fed is going to slow. again, these are all things we know and what it comes down to is just a more near approach to when that recession is going to start. and then what happens is the degree of any downturn is dependent on the severity of the recession. we don't think the recession is going to be that severe. really sort of in concert with ed hyman calling for 0% gdp for

the full year '23 implies a mild recession, but enough given sort of the psychology, the risk averse psychology, the competitiveness of cash, which most investors have no frame of reference over the last 15 years. that's the recipe. >> it feels like you're making your job a lot more complicated, julian, because you're basically calling for a first half and second half. so i'm going to ask you what your price target is in the first half -- >> two bites on the cherry. >> i also want to know what the rally back is going to be like on the other side. >> so we think that in the first half of the year, either the s&p 500 or one of the other indices will challenge or take out the lows made in october that's sort of the clearing event from a price action. interestingly enough, and carter, i'm sure, as the technical guy you would endorse this this year has been unique in

that price action has said more than anything, more than fundamentals, more than news, more than anything, otherwise how would you have had that reversal on october 13th in an absolutely horrible inflation number and so for us basically the price action is what we'll be looking for to findthat clearing event with one or more of the indices taking out those october lows. >> those october lows to 4150 basically. >> and again, you could overshoot because the other thing that we found is that when the markets rebound, the ability to go to a higher multiple is mind bogglingly rapid because the sentiment changes very quickly. >> julian, great to see you. thanks for coming by what do you think, you said you would endorse it >> well, there's a lot to consider i think one thing to think about is exactly a year ago at this time, same circumstance where we're all thinking about the year ahead, strategists are putting out their targets.

one out of two stocks in the s&p 500 was already down 20% the market was collapsing in december, even though we were going on to make new highs on jan 4. so the internals the question is are the internals improving now? to some extent they are. but watch for that, where there's divergence between the index and the constituents. >> as painful as it is to wait out this period where people wanting to have those clearing moments, and julian talked about a vix that hit 35 multiple times in 2022, but that was not the cathartic moment and i think you have different timelines for what an inflation inspired bear market should mean in terms of a timeline and it tends to run longer. the most important thing for an investor is we're getting to the place where you can be investors again. we've all been waiting for that guidance from ceos to talk about a world without supply chain, a world without covid pull forward, a world where we have some inflation actually starting to abate so that's the good news for investors. these are the questions ideal

with my investors all the time, but i think what we get collectively on this desk, when is it time to step back in because people who watch this show and watch cnbc, love markets and love investing in companies. the good news is the fed will have cleared the things you don't know are the credit environment which is often the scariest part of everything we ever talk about on this show. i do think based upon julian's timeline, that's the timeline that you step back in full time. in the meantime this has been one of the greatest trading markets of all time. >> 2023 we'll get some normalization to some extent in terms of the business conditions. >> i hope so november of last year the fed started to tell you, that's it we're going to turn. if i had told you the expectation, would they be 5 or north, that would have seemed quite extraordinary probably, right? and somehow we've weathered it through. definitely battered but not down for the count.

so i don't know, i'd like to see some normalization, but i also think those super growthy numbers are not coming back. >> right the pandemic highs. >> the pandemic highs and the no earnings, but huge hult. coming up, tesla seems to be on a downhill slide with no brakes dropping 13% this month down 25% since elon musktook the wheel at twitter so what's it going to take to stop the stall 'tis the season for a new trading game, so naughty it's nice why one of our traders think amazon has been so bad this year it could be a good bet this year "fast money" is back right after this for colon cancer. yep. with colon cancer rising in adults under 50, the american cancer society recommends starting to screen earlier, at age 45. i'm cologuard, a noninvasive way to screen at home, on your schedule. and i find 92% of colon cancers. i'm for people 45+ at average risk for colon cancer, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur.

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...comes the legendary cat with 9 lives. or whatever comes down the road. hmm, hmm, 8 lives. 7, 6 5, 4 3, 2. you are down to your last life. i am not really a math guy. rated pg. welcome back to "fast money. we've got a double dose of buzz kills starting with tesla. shares dropping more than 6% to a new two-year plus low today. the latest move coming after a report that more customers have a negative view of the brand than a positive one. tesla is down more than 52% this year 25% since ceo elon musk took over twitter at the end of october. there's the whole distraction fear there are fears about china, price cuts in china, demand waning in china. lots of stuff going on here, karen. >> yeah, lots of stuff going on. the distractions is one of them

for sure but i also think he's very out there, he's very public, he's very opinionated i think most of those opinions are probably somewhat more offensive to democrats than they are to republicans and democrats have been the buyers primarily, not only of course but primarily you've got to think that that has some effect. there is no company in america right now that is more intertwined with their ceo than elon musk. so him being out there and, you know, as sort of -- you know, he's just -- i don't know what the word is. provocative, i guess if i were a tesla shareholder, i would be pretty pissed one thing, we've seen tesla fall a lot. year over year, gm versus tesla, not surprisingly gm was better but i looked at the two-year stack of gm versus tesla and i was a bit surprised actually to find out, i hope this says that gm is better because that's what i found. >> yes

the white line is above the orange line. >> barely. >> so i feel like this leg down since he bought it is pretty much on elon. >> yeah. at the highs we were saying what happens if elon musk steps down, what happens if elon musk is forced away from the business and that was a negative. so it makes sense that what we're seeing here in terms of the opinion of elon musk as that declines, that that has an impact on brand perception and maybe even a stock price, carter what does the chart say to you >> well, the thing is this and we all know this and we all fight it just don't buy stocks in downtrends unless it's so bad it's good, but that's a different subject. >> you're like the nancy reagan of stock charts. just say no to bad stock charts. tim. >> tesla, we just got done having a conversation talking about stocks that won't work again. i don't think you're going to have a market backdrop for tesla to ever exist again.

>> you're saying the best days of tesla are behind it. >> the best market backdrop for a stock like that is gone. and this for a long time was a company that didn't make money it makes money now but it was rewarded in a marketplace that didn't care about profitability. i still think they have trouble making their core car, their mass car profitably. more importantly, i do think this car does get caught up in a high multiple stock regime it's also an auto company. karen's two-year charts on both these companies, i mean there is cyclicality there and i think it's commonality even though it's an oem. shares of rh posting its worst days since august. the move ending a three-day winning streak after its earnings last week courtney, what do you think of rh >> i think you're going to have to -- a lot of these companies you're seeing that they're having to discount in order to get the customers there. people are spending but i think they are spending selectively and you've not seeing that with restoration hardware or reflect h currently.

i think that might continue to hurt them. >> those are numbers that outperform significantly they beat consensus by 20% but i think there is a backlog drain that is something that may be moving quicker. the ability of restoration to stay above a 20% eabobebit margs something the street is concerned about. >> they had this weird thing where if you're a member of rh then you get this set percent off of the list price or something. they may not discount but have that. >> it's almost like you're going to get that. you pay $200 to get a 15% discount i'll do that all day long. i don't have to be a member until it's time to be a member. >> we were a little skeptical, to be fair to the desk a lot of times we miss things. but when they announced we're doing the rh plane, the rh hotel, the rh everything it's an rh world appeared you're just living -- that was peak rh.

$700 a share it's a very different story now. i don't own it sort of interesting. but it never should have been $700. >> probably not, but i think this is capitulation the price target on the street was 700. now it's 300 at the beginning of the year we think it's worth 700 now we think it's worth 300. >> i own it and i've been buying it in the last month and a half to two months. you know, this is rocky price action, but i tend to agree with carter on that. coming up, santa may be making a list and checking it twice but the chart master has his own take on the stocks that have been naughty and nice this year we'll find out where he stands on some big names when "fast money" returns for 1,100 bucks? ga-a-a-ap! looks like your wallet may need a sling too. tell me about it. did that goat say "gap"? he's talking about expenses that health insurance doesn't cover. eh-ehh-eh! well i'm talking about the money aflac pays to help close that gap. aflac, huh? aflac! ga-a-a-ap! aflac! gap... uh-oh! that duck can motor!

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welcome back here's a sneak peek at the kramer cam jim is talking with the ceo of constellation energy. we are in the holiday spirit here on "fast money" and wanted to put a spin on one of our favorite games instead of so bad it's good, we're playing a round of so naughty, it's nice our traders are looking at a couple of trouble-making names that they think deserve more than a lump of coalter is playi claus to make the final

decision tim, you're going to start. >> i'm going to start with gold. this is a case where if any environment should have been great for gold, it was one where you had inflation, where you have this dynamic, except gold was deaf if you look at that chart especially in a world where you had a couple of conditions gold should have been working i think the fed has vanquished inflation in terms of the concept of its worst, this is the environment for gold a world where we have slow growth that's the status quo for '23 and that's an environment where gold really works, even against cash so stay in this trade and i think the gold miners will outperform the underlying metal. >> we know already, carter, that you like gold in this environment. >> i do, but let's do it anyway. what do we know? first of all, what we know, it's always fun, right? a trend line where something keeps on responding to that line and then moves above it is a

change in trend. what do we have first? we have a triple bottom that's very well defined. that means this gets a nice, green arrow. let's do the exact same chart and you also can do this a massive head and shoulders bottom, which means another green arrow. i'm with you, tim. >> right on. >> all right let's move on here courtney here has flagged d.r. horton she's put it on the nice list. courtney, why? >> yeah, i do think housing has gotten hit really hard, especially with interest rates a lot higher this year even when they're starting to come down, a lot of these home buyers aren't there so you're not seeing a lot of the optimism coming through i really like the valuation here it trades at less than nine times earnsings. there's about five million more households created than homes built. that's a problem not going away. i like d.r. horton because 85%

of their home sales are $400,000 and under which will get the millenials in their first home and i think that will continue especially if interest rates are going to come down, which we think they will. >> carter, naughty or nice. >> it's awfully nice so if we can measure trend in many ways, one is to use a moving average the 150-day moving average is rising we also know that it makes a low in june. does it make a low the way the stock market does in october no, so the relative performance is tremendous. so one way to draw the lines is that let's look at another iteration. this is the same chart on top but now we're looking at the relative performance so the key is this if i do this, yes, what we know is it's been going up absolute look what i can also do. the relative low was actually back in april. and so even as horton was going down, it's starting to outperform the s&p and the group is fantastic

>> the group is fantastic. >> wow karen, you've got amazon here. what do you see? >> i do. it's not so apparent on the surface, but amazon, we talk about how much is the retail business worth is it maybe even negative? think about the amount of spend that they have been -- tens of billions of dollars, tens of billions that they could slow down they don't really care about the short-term stock price but i think they're going to turn that spend down we've already seen it a little bit, which will make their retail business far more profitable than it's been, which is not and i think that will change the tide of amazon. >> carter, naughty or nice here? >> naughty >> oh! >> you naughty girl. >> it's at a 52-week low that's the problem sorry. >> i feel like we ed ane sound effect. up next, final trades.

ugh, this rental car is so boring to drive. let's be honest. the rent-a-car industry is the definition of boring. and the reason can be found in the name itself. rent - a - car? you don't want a friend. you want the friend. you don't want a job. you want the job. the is always over a. that's why we don't offer a car. we offer the car. ( ♪♪ ) sixt. rent the car. hello, world. or is it goodbye? you know, it seems like hope and trust are in short supply. [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities. [clap] it's time for business to show its true worth. because it's not goodbye, world. it's hello, team earth.

[clap] time for the final trade let's go around the horn tim. >> if gold is working, gold miners are working >> carter worth. >> gold too. do it all. >> courtney. >> tappestly just had an

upgrade. >> karen finerman. >> first i want to say happy birthday to my brother, marc feinerman. >> oh, happy birthday, mark. >> and i'm going to pick my naughty amazon i bought some today. >> well, you think it's nice. >> thanks for watching my mission is simple, to make you money i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now hey, i'm cramer. welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends, i'm just trying to make you a little money my job is not just to entertain, teach and show why days like today can happen call more oh tweet m me @jimcramer.