i'm natalie morales. thank you for watching. good morning welcome to "street signs." i'm joumanna bercetche >> i'm arabile gumede. these are your headlines >> european equities tread water ahead of the central bank decisions and economic data with investors hoping for a softer landing today could set the tone for 2023. and sam bankman-fried is arrested in the bahamas and prosecutors expected to charge

the ftx leader with wire and securities fraud. and a wave of withdrawals within the cryptocurrency arena. and eu energy ministers agree to discuss a price cap talk as they warn of shortages next winter. relations with the west and russia may never fully heal. >> will not return to some kind of normal relationship with russia trust has been destroyed good morning welcome to "street signs." let's get the focus on the u.s.

cpi print. remember, the last print surprise to the downside, i was reading a report earlier saying the last six cpi prints, the day of, the s&p has moved three percentage points. this data is crucial for market direction from here. certainly the market expectation is a further deceleration in inflation. the headline rate is expected to drop to 7.3% to 6.1% that would mark a deceleration point from the last number we are, the ppi numbers, not long ago that was a surprise to the up side. we could get an up side surprise here here it is interesting. we have the fed tomorrow and central bank meetings on thursday a really big week for data the markets in europe trading

around the flat line plus or minus 2 points no major movement yet. anything can changein the next 24 hours let's talk more about european indexes. dax up a bit final numbers coming in 10 points year on year. that is still double digit in germany. high inflation numbers some say heading into the meeting on thursday, the pressure is on the ecb to go aggressive when the fed cannot afford to start slowing down with the pace of their rate hikes. watch out for the survey coming up in an hour's time that gives you an idea of the german sentiment cac 40 in france up 4 basis points we are down here in italy. down four points on the session. we had hot wage data come in

today. 6.1% for the three months from august to october. the highest since records started in 2001 if you adjust for the covid period in terms of sectors, this is the breakdown. oil and gas up 1.2%. the spot sector is up 1.5% today. that is translating to stocks. travel is up 1 on the downside, telco is down 1% arabile. thank you for that, joumanna amgen struck a deal to buy horizon therapeutics it will delve into the rare diseases it will pay $1.5 billion in cash a premium in the stock's last close. and christian hansen is dropping

on the announcement yesterday that it would merge with novozymes. the deal will bring significant value to stake holders across both firms >> we are combining two companies. each of them is extraordinary. when we put them together, we set up a position to generate even more value for all stake holders for the society and employees and for the customers by bringing new solutions and an connecting bio-based solutions and generating value growth for customers and especially value generation for our shareholders. well, i'm pleased to say that the ceo of christian hansen is joining us. i spoke to the novozymes ceo

yesterday. a lot of excitement on her part. can you tell us why this deal makes sense for hansen >> thank you great to have you on the program. it is an important moment for the industry and bio-science companies have to address the needs from the society point of view in transforming a more resilient plan i think joining forces creates a bio-science champion and global scope. it is a great next step for hansen to bring technologies to customers around the world >> a lot of talk about the price tag. many people are pointing out that novozymes is paying a 49% premium from the friday close of shares for hansen. i suppose you are happy with

that result? >> i think it is a fair premium for shareholders who need to look at premiums over a longer point. i think ester mentioned that we have strong backing from the largest investor, novozymes. our investors should be happy with the premium and ability to also benefit from the strength of the future combined company >> mauricio, let's talk about how big this deal is in the danish context and what it means for your ambitions across the region and world what is that looking like? >> great question. i think this is one of the largest deals in denmark i think our danish heritage is important because of the strength of the bio-science and technology you find in denmark the opportunity for global we will have a stronger presence

in asia. it will leverage across all of the european markets and also expand our opportunities in the u.s. and latin america i would highlight this is true across all of the combined portfolios in our human, animal and plant health as well as food culture and enzymes business >> that is 6% to 8% organic growth which is expected to come from this. is that a fair hope in a market where we are seeing cpi levels we are seeing across europe especially with the double digit numbers? >> i think hansen and knovozyme are profitable companies the synergies we create, i think, entitled the new company to the growth between 6% to 8% if you look at hansen's guidance

for the year, which is 7% to 10%, and we have been con consistently outgrowing our markets, definitely a high level of confidence from ester and myself on the growth opportunities for the future. >> sir, to round up the discussion, focus here is to create a larger bio-technology company to compete on an international scale. who would you say you are competing with >> when you look at the combination of novozymes and hansen, we look at the broad set of the segments. we reach out to almost every end-use market our competitor base is broad when you look at our competition in agriculture and animal health as well as in the whole food

beverage and enzymes businesses. i would not name a few, not to exclude many, but it is a broad set and landscape. >> i appreciate the time thank you for joining us this morning. the ceo of hansen joining us this morning from public to private markets now as our next guest says private debt and infrastructure will be positioned strategies as we approach 2023. paul ward, managing partner at pantheon we appreciate you joining us the up side in the private space. we have seen that particularly moving in 2022 where the growth seemed to be more in the public space? >> in the private markets, we are facing the same headwinds as you have been talking about with the public markets pressures are here to stay today's announcement is

interesting in the u.s that leads to the base rates across the globe you have three potential in the u.s. ecb and here in the uk all of that led to more uncertainty around growth in particular how are we going to see growth coming through in the markets? in private markets, we see some of the challenges and at pantheon, we have customers taking on the opportunities. you mentioned the strategies we cover private markets, private equity, infrastructure and real estate and private credit within those, there are different ways to tap into them to take advantage. you mentioned infrastructure there, you've got inflation linked revenues which is a good way to invest in the environment. and private credit, you have investments linked to base rates. those pass through to your

portfolio. we see investments in this difficult environment. >> as you speak to your clients, the conversations, particularly on a sector basis, where does that sit where do you tell them to look toward for your sectors? >> we have been concerned about the environment for several years, it takes a long time to build a private market portfolio. you have to look quite far ahead. it is 5 or 10 years investment at any time we have been tilting clients to the sectors we see perform well. healthcare and technology. the shine may have come off those sectors, but the subtext within those with good performance. and sectors is one way to think about it the other is the private market and how you access the asset class. we see a strong way of accessing this at the moment the secondary way is buying a fund owned by somebody else.

investors are facing significant problems around liquidity and rebalancing that portfolio they are putting their funds out in the market to sell. secondary buyers are benefitting from the attractive assets at a discount because those investors need to sell those assets. what we have seen historically is this period following corrections generally generate stronger performance in the medium term. >> we are entering a different landscape because the costs were so little in the environment where interest rates were zero and possibly negative. you were sacrifice the liquidity. interest rates are higher and things have changed. people are less inclined to invest in growth companies that are not producing the profit

what does that do to the investor willingness to tie up money for a longer period of time in an investment that is not willing to pay off >> we are seeing different things now we see the size of funds coming back to the market won't be here for a long time. if you step back, there is $1.8 trillion capital raised that still hasn't been deployed that is considered dry powder. capital that they have not drawn down to the investing companies. given where valuations are and managers are at pulling levers it is not just about putting money to work with high leverage, but working with the companies to improve performance. i do think if you want to benefit from growth, private markets really is the way. private markets have declined in the number of companies that are

public that transition has been to the private sector i still think our clients are looking carefully at this. what is an interesting if phenomenon over the recent years, the number of high net investors or private wealth market which have come into the private markets. we asan industry have been developing technology to allow them to access this market in the way that provides some liquidity to your point and also provides them with extra ru returns. >> what is your take on the last week with the high profile withdrawal request from the blackstone real estate fund which prompted the ceo to come out and reassure investors and obviously when you sign up to be part of the funds, you are giving up some of that liquidity premium. there is a certain number of redemptions that can be made every quarter. fine what does that do for the perception of the investment

community? >> that's a really important question particularly for those investors who are used to be in the class. institutions generally have a better understanding of that long-term lock up. pension plans on long-term horizons some of it is driven by the problems in the uk where liquidity became a problem for investors. i would say in the case that you give most investors understand their investments are liquid there are periods where they can withdraw them, but it is not guaranteed you are very right about the perception it is a real problem if the investors feel like their money is never available i don't think it is as far as that he was right to come out and reassure people. >> one final thing what is the number of dry powder on the sidelines >> $1.8 trillion >> okay. where does that money go how can you be sure it is being

deployed effectively and into companies that are actually going to payoff into the future? >> that capital is available for the managers that have been backed by the limited partners and investors in the funds to invest in specific strategies that were pre-agreed that could be infrastructure it could be private equity whatever that investor has decided to invest in it is doing the due dill igencet have the right processes in place. as i said earlier, this is a really good time to invest that capital. valuations are lower and there are great opportunities. >> paul, thank you for i don't think -- thank you for joining us on set. paul ward. managing partner of pantheon and bahamas police arrest

sam bankman-fried as prosecutors look to bring on criminal charges. the latest in the crypto saga just ahead slow. then we found shipstation. now we're shipping out orders 5 times faster and thanks to shipstation's discounted rates we're saving a ton. honestly, we couldn't do it without shipstation join over 100,000 online sellers who get ship done with shipstation go to shipstation.com /tv and get 2 months free.

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sam bankman-fried has been arrested in the bahamas after u.s. prosecutors filed criminal charges against the ftx founder. a sealed indictment will be released later today to include charges of fraud and money laundering the u.s. securities and exchange commission authorized charges related to the violation of american securities law. sam bankman-fried is expected to be extradited to the u.s. setting the stage for a trial. sam bankman-fried previously told cnbc he wasn't concerned about criminal liability >> that's not what i'm focusing on there's going to be a time and place for me to sort of think about myself and my own future i don't think this is it right now -- look, i had a bad p

month. this is not been fun for me. that's not what matters here what matters here is the millions of customers. what matters here is all of the stake holders in ftx who got hurt >> sam bankman-fried was due to testify in congress today alongside ftx's new court appointed ceo. prepared remarks will say lthey comingled assets wray has never seen such an utter failure of controls in his career. binance ceo says withdrawals of the u.s. stable coin linked to the u.s. dollar have increased with the crypto exchange it paused

it confirmed that customers could still withdraw stable coin an a and tether it should be said that the exchange does have about $64 billion are in assets. let's get to arjun who has been following the crypto winter closely. just a couple of weeks ago, arjun, he was doing the media rounds and reassuring that their business model and binance business model was more sound over alameda things have changed in the last 24 hours what is going on >> reporter: joumanna, there is a lot of concern with the ftx collapse binance is a big focus with the

largest crypto exchange. this could have ramifications across the industry with co contagion. binance is carrying out a swap one crypto for another without use of fee it could be a way for binance to shore up the u.s. debt it has. the chairman and ceo says there has been an increase of the withdrawals of the u.s. debt when it is trying to convert stable coin into usdc, it goes through the bank in new york which is not yet open. there is no reason p at the moment why this is an increase in withdraws of usdc it is never a good sign w

withdrawals. there are a number of questions raised over the reports released a couple of weeks ago. b binance can back what it has w w withdrawals. it doesn't have enough information to give investors confidence particularly after the ftx collapse and some of the other collapses we have seen across the industry over the past few months that is one big concern at the moment the second is the report from yesterday claiming the debt department of justice with the criminal investigation over money laundering violations as well we don't know if that is true yet. binance hasn't come out with the statement about that and the department of justice hasn't

come out with an official statement. ultimately, they are all scratching their heads if the allegations are true and what it means for the company. so far, binance stable coin has remained stable. another token that binance issued is down right now which is bringing jitters among investors as they look at the ramifications if there are troubles at this exchange. >> considering this fall, arjun, in the crypto space, that proof of reserves report by binance is to allay investors fears what do they do now to assure there is stability particularly in binance >> reporter: i think the important thing is restart withdrawals. if they can do that quickly, it

goes a long way to show we have the situation under control. we can deal with these kinds of market volatility for investors and make smuure we get operatio back up. there will be an issue for investors for transparency we have seen that across the board with stable coins like tether and reserves. what kind of assets are these companies holding to back up businesses what is in the reserves? i think there will be an issue for investors for more transparency ultimately if binance can show the business is sound and there is a major collapse or vola volatility, we can back it up. that is the message. investors are concerned by the collapse of ftx. that came down to so many things one of the biggest is the lack of transparency.

they didn't know what was going on behind the scenes at ftx and alameda and comingling of funds. for binance, they have to work hard and quickly to show that their business is sound and they can be transparent with the customers. >> we are expecting to see some movement soon in that regard we will see what happens then. arjun, thank you for the time on that story coming up on the show, eu energy ministers do meet to discuss the proposed gas price cap as the iea could face a pp ahoage next year. we'll discuss more after the break.

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bring on a better 2023. and sam bankman-fried is extradited to the united states. prosecutors expected to charge the former poster boy of the cryptocurrency industry with wires and securities fraud. binance ceo looks to the health of the company, but it has seen an increase of withdrawals from u.s. stable coin. investors plan to meet in brussels for price cap talks as they warn about shortages next winter relations with the west and russia may never fully heal. >> it will not return to some normal relationship with russia. trust has been destroyed

welcome back to the show investments are looking to surge off the suppressed levels after demand and low valuations move on that is according to the latest investment with alvarez and marsal we have the managing director and chairman at alvarez joings joins us on the show you are expectinga pick up of activity in 2023 144 companies are at risk of attacks in the next 18 months. what is going on here? why? >> so what you saw was during covid and ukraine situation started, activist activity

reduced in both those stages because it was too much uncertainty for shareholders to price properly what is now happening is people can begin to see through this and see through the ukraine situation as to how it may play out. activists are able to form views again on potential value that could be created and with the suppressed valuations as you mentioned are beginning to strike again we see through 2023 an increasing wave of activism coming in the countries you talked about uk and germany. >> what type of activism will we s see? looking to streamline companies and cost cut, et cetera? or looking along the lines of esg activity >> multiple types which make it a real challenge for boards because you still got the

traditional activists who are fundamentally interested in the m mis-pricing of the opportunities with the share of the business is more than the valve that stage. you will see the traditional activists like elliott which is active there at the same time, you have the environmental activists and social activists who are becoming increasingly vocal. an example was bluebell recently starting to take on blackrock over esg on policy and if it is real or not. the multiple examples of this. you might have multiple activists having a go at the business it makes a more complicated situation to manage through than five years ago with activisms. >> if companies are looking at

this on all fronts when it comes to the activism, how do you get ahead of the curve if the bar b barbarians are up on the hill? >> they are up on the hill and looking down the important thing for the board and company is to subject itself to how an activist might think and act. where are the weaknesses in the business and in the governance and environmental or social aspects of that? something that we increasingly do with boards and businesses is they ask us in to pretend to be an activist on them. we know how the activist thinks. put an outside-in view as to where are the strategic issues which the activists will go at and the tactics they will use

with the particular weaknesses or things that might be apparent in the governance or the business that is if the business is afraid or concerned it might have an activist action -- first thing, they can contact us and ring us up we have public releases the names of the companies where we expect the activism. if a board rings us, we will discuss that privately we are very happy to work with that company and really challenging them just like an activist would that's how you get ahead of the game >> and in terms of sectors, where does one look? if there was a trend to pick up on on where that activism could happen, which sector would one be looking at? >> so the top of the pile of the mound is consumer.

a lot of activists are seeing the pricing and seeing a lot of environmental issues and sensitivity in the consumer area that is top of the pile. second one i would pull out is energy so this is again where the environmental piece plays in because there's tension in energy companies between extracting the existing or dirty energy and continuing to do that well with the oil and gas situation and also the environmental potential and how the integrated player handles that that's a tough issue and there's a lot of activist activity around that. the third area is not so much the sector, but m & a activity as we see in the downturn and that tightens further, we will see a big corporate trending to

core or activists saying they should retrench to core and get rid of the periphery which is no non-core you will see m & a and reach the portfolio and take that into account different capital values. >> malcolm, if your prognosis is correct, i suspect we will speak to you a lot in 2023 thank you for joining us managing chairman of the alvarez & marsal corporation. and the g7 will meet to discuss ukraine and will discuss more air defenses. foreign ministers have a fresh round of sanctions on iran over the drone delivery to russia

nato's secretary-general told cnbc if russia and ukraine reach a peace agreement, the relationship with russia will not return to normal >> this is important to understand if the fighting ends, it will not return to a normal and friendly relationship with russia trust has been destroyed the invasion of the ukraine is part of the pattern with the war in syria and ukraine and crimea. you will not import as much gas as the last few decades. it is not like everything will be normal and nice again this will have a long lasting consequence. the eu could have a gas charge according to the iea. they called on governments to ramp up on renewable energy in

the bid to offset the future energy crunch. the eu commission president says the states are already preparing for the next winter. eu ministers are holding a meeting today to discuss a proposed price cap on gas as some member states push for stronger guarantees that the mechanism will not spook markets and others push for a lower price cap. speaking earlier, the eu commissioner said member states will need to find a compromise >> as we have reached agreement, everybody has to show some flexibility and everybody has to be able to propose some compromises. i expect that ministers will have discussion that will bring us a solution with a support among member states.

>> sylvia joins us now this is a story that has been rolling on for the better part of the year. what is the actual issue now is it still the broader price cap or are we talking about technical issues things like how high the price limit is gas contracts and whether you can reneg? >> we already have the european leaders with the cap on gas prices now we are seeing energy ministers discussing the nitty gritty what level will they implement the cap? officials have told me that at the moment this level is floating between 180 euro megawatt hour and 220. if you look at the prices at the moment, they are trading at 140 euro megawatt cap.

it would be make it more feasible for the implementation of the cap if you compared to the original number that the commission rproposed at 275 megawatts per hour i have to say this meeting is now under way and it is still unclear if they bridge their differences at this meeting. here is the italian minister for european paffairs asking the eu to come up with agreement as soon as possible >> the time for consultation has run out. we have reached ground zero. european citizens are in agony and european businesses are closing and we have been debating all of us must heed to our responsibilities and agree without delay on the market correction mechanism

these are historic moments and we are all being judged. >> the minister for the european affairs from italy making it clear his opinion that citizens and businesses are suffering and this cap on gas prices is very urgent >> final schedule meeting for that is expected around the 19th of december as well. we will see how things fare. coming up on the show, could u.s. inflation be tapering off we will discuss ahead of the cpi print as the fed binegs its two-day meeting.

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welcome back to "street signs. let's get a check of the markets. the cpi print later today is expected we will see a drop in the headline print which is expected and a 6.1% for inflation will that be enough to continue with the rally that started yesterday? we will find out over here in europe, the indices

are trading on the flat line we had key data come out the final cpi print in germany came in at 10% double digits at year on year for the month of november. definitely putting pressure ahead of the thursday meeting for the ecb. cac 40 in france is up .10%. a lot of focus on the next 48 hours from data perspective. ftse 100 is trading at the flat line we are seeing a bounce in commodities which is giving life to the uk index. worth mentioning strong wage data early in the day. 6% for the three months from august the highest since records began if you adjust for the covid period switching to the currency. euro and dollar is flat. the pound is flat. pointing to further weakness in

the u.s. dollar. dollar is trading at the flat line if we get a strong print, that could give legs to the bullish dollar. yesterday we had a better session from the three majors. the s&p is opening up 7 points higher the dow about 50 points higher nasdaq about 27. u.s. finflation is expected to slow when the bureau publishes the latest reading today. cpi is forecast to fall to 7.3% from 7.7% from the month before. the s&p is jumping as much as 10% from the prediction from jpmorgan chase. and the final meeting of

2022 with the central bank widely expected to slow the pace of rate increases. the cme federal funds futures is expected to raise rates 50 points officials will publish a new set of economic predictions through 2025 andrew hunter, senior economist at capital economics joins us now as we get to take a look at this data as we head toward it later on andrew, thank you for the time we expected a drawdown in this inflation figure over the last report or two. that hasn't happened it remained fairly resilient could that be the face with this one? >> yeah, it is always possible we could get an unwelcome surprise on the up side with inflation. we are hoping for more good news in the numbers today if you look at the headline figures, we should get some

slight drag from the continued fall in gasoline prices we have seen that will continue into december as well. even if you just look at the core numbers, i think there is so much evidence pointing to core inflation to come we hope to see more signs of softening, too that will be clear if you look at the core goods numbers. we have seen evidence of dramatic easing in the global supply shortages in the past six months with global shipping costs collapsing and the impact of the strong dollar core services is likely to be a bit more sticky. i think there is reasons for encouragement there if you look at the labor market. we had headline figures strong, but tentative conditions starting to ease if you look at the decline in job vacancies and job quits. some of that should start feeding through to slower wage

growth and inflation soon. the final big one to mention is what is happening with cpi rents, the single biggest component of the core index and received a lot of attention. cpi rent continues to accelerate we know from the various private sector measures that rent inflation for newly signed contracts has slowed significantly over the past year i guess it is a bit of question of tightening if that is feeding through in the numbers today i think we can be pretty confident that a slowdown in rent inflation is coming that is something likely to be a major factor pushing overall core inflation lower over the coming months and quarters. >> you expect the mild recession going into early next year how quickly do the inflation pressures begin to subside once that recession does come into effect if it does? >> yeah.

our sense is that the conditions for a sustained fall in inflation are already in place based on that evidence i was just describing. as you say, yes, we are expecting the u.s. will fall into a mild recession at some point. probably in the first half of next year. it is true most of the recent activity and employment data have been pretty strong. if you focus on the best leading economic and financial market indicators, all of those are really flashing red. that suggests to us the recession is the most likely outcome. i think there are various reasons to expect it will be quite mild we think the economy will likely be okay over the next couple years. if we are right and the economy does slip into a mild contr contraction, that is another factor helping to push down wage and price inflation. >> andrew, you paint a soft

outlook picture for the u.s. i want to go back to the inflation number core cpi today is expected at 6.1% in your notes, you have it dropping to 2.5% by the end of 2023 that is a substantial decline. do you think markets are priced in for that? >> i think we are at a stage where there is a widespread expectation of a slowdown in inflation. our sense is markets, particularly the fed, are still being too pessimistic in terms of how fast inflation will fall over the coming year i think the debate over transitory inflation is a bit discredited. i think it is the case where there have been a number of factors related to the pandemic and disruption the past couple years that have been pushing up inflation significantly.

most of those are now starting to fade. you know, going forward again and if we are right, we will see this continued gradual weakening in the economy the labor market weakening unemployment starting to rise a bit. i think there is a scope for a dramatic slowdown in inflation over the coming year and one sharper than others are expecting. >> andrew, briefly we are getting close to running up against the clock give us your views on consumer spending and why you think it will moderate? >> consumption is tied to the labor market at the moment, conditions are still pretty strong. real incomes have been rebounding in recent months. no surprise consumers are still doing okay if we are right, we will see a continued slowdown unemployment rate moving. it is inevitable consumption

will slow over the coming months >> andrew, thank you for joining us today big day in the u.s senior u.s. economy from capital economics. a quick look at u.s. futures before we head out for the session. the three majors are seeing opening up in positive territory. picking up from the momentum from the session yesterday u.s. cpi in focus. expected to come in at 7.1 if it comes in softer, arabile, we could see a major upswing in markets. >> we could. i'm going to do the paper thing that you and julianna were doing. >> i don't have papers today the printer isn't working. >> thank you for joining us.

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breaking news. authorities in the bahamas arresting disgraced ftx founder sam bankman-fried. he now faces a possible fight in extradition in what could be the most important financial crime trial in years. and we get the latest on the inflation and gas prices down with other prices still high jpmorgan chase lays out what the stock market is likely to do. and the fed reserve kicks off th