are it is 5:00 a.m. in new york here is your top "five@5." a long way to go jay powell laying out the fed's road ahead after the seven the rate hike this year. and fed waiting on two more policy decisions we are live in london. forget insider buying. this is insider selling in a very big way as the tesla pain trade is far from over. new details breaking overnight on what led to the downfall of ftx founder sam

bankman-fried. and later on, a look at stocks wall street loves the most next year we will name names all ahead on this thursday, december 15th. this is "worldwide exchange. well, good morning, good afternoon and good evening from wherever in the world you may be watching good thursday morning. i'm brian sullivan let's get to the markets and your money there is a lot of red on the screen right now i'm sorry to say, futures are down across the board. nasdaq futures are down more than 1% right now. dow off nearly 300 stocks ended yesterday lower after that fed rate call in fact, at one point yesterday, the s&p 500 fell below 4,000 as investors listened to jay powell and tried to decide if he was a

hawk or a dove in hawk's feathers same for bonds yields were where they were yesterday under 3.5% you want to be exact at 3.49% on the 10-year. rates moved higher until powell began speaking and they fellower given rates where they were a few months ago, it is possible the bond market may, may be saying that the fed is all but done with rate hikes something to watch the bond market tends to lead, not to follow. also to energy and oil which is slightly lower. it did rise on wednesday keep in mind and we'll talk about china in moments if china fully reopens, it could add as many as 2 million to 3 million barrels per day to the global demand. you have the keystone pipeline st spill in kansas.

as we noted around the world, investors are waiting calls from two central banks england and in europe. what can we expect from each we don't know, but geoff cutmore does, and he is in the london newsroom with a lot of red on your screen as well. geoff, good morning. >> absolutely. good morning, brian. i'm afraid we can't help with the futures market out at this point. we are broadly weaker on risk appetite when you look at the european equity picture. a lot of it is about anticipation of what we will see on the interest rate moves we already had a number of central banks in europe report on policy rates this morning the swiss national bank kicked off a fresh day decision with the .50% hike. warning inflation pressure has increased and spread the bank of england will be up next next we are looking for a 50 basis

point move from the bank of england as well bringing the base rate in the uk to 3.5% which would be a 14-year high for us then we get the european central bank which is set to follow with its own 50 basis point hike. investors looking for clues as how the central bank will begin to reduce its balance sheet. that so-called qt announcement as you can see, it is not helping the mood of the markets. european stocks at the moment following wall street into the red and many of the greater china markets. all major indices are lower right now as you can see with the median loss of 1% across the markets. in corporate news, it is lower despite beating the forecasts. unicredit in the green after confirming it reached the cap requirements and hsbc expects its quarterly

dividend to be reinstated at a lower level than historically. back to you, brian >> geoff cutmore, thank you. we await the rate decisions in a couple hours. now we get to the headlines here with silvana henao with those. good morning, silvana. >> good morning, brian brian, details on what led to the arrest of ftx founder and former ceo sam bankman-fried according to newly released court records, a close associate and executive of ftx told regulators days before the bankruptcy filing, he hedged funds between the two companies. this is the first known instance

of a top associate to sbam bankman-fried assisting government. and passing a bill to prevent tiktok on government devices. this will move to the president's desk this will come amid growing concerns tiktok which is owned by bytedance and sharing information with chinese authorities. and foxconn is rolling back the covid restrictions at the factory in china this is after protests at the plant in recent weeks. some forced apple to scale back production during the holiday quarter. anmong the policy, foxconn is restricting movement between the dorm room and factory floor. >> tiktok is getting one step closer to be outlawed in

america. what will influencers do i don't know what will the chinese government do it is hard to know silvana henao, thank you very much now to global markets. following the fed rate call yesterday and chairman jay powell crushing any hope of the major pivot in the near term listen to what he said >> i think my view and my colleagues view is this will take time. we have to hold policy at restrictive level for a sustained period so two good monthly reports are, you know, very welcome very welcome we need to be honest with ourselves that there is inflation, 12-month core inflation, is 6% we have a long way to go to get back to price stability. >> given that we are probably

near nearing, if not at the end of the tightening cycle, how close are we with the fed and when do we look at overseas and the state of china's economy for direction? we have seema shah with us good to see you again. do you think we are nearing the end of the tightening cycle? maybe, fingers crossed, maybe put our fed to bed for six-to-nine months or maybe longer >> nice to see you, brian. look, yes, the fed is nearing the end of the tightening cycle. it is moving slow and it is really not good news what we heard from powell yesterday is that they have slowed down the pace of tightening they are close to the peak the peak is above 5% that is higher than the market expected going into yesterday's meeting. they will not cut rates next

year they were very clear in the discussion point there will be no loosening of monetary policy throughout 2023. unfortunately when you have already seen 425 basis points of tightening in less than one year, there is going to be a fairly significant economic impact still in the way for the u.s. economy will deal with. >> we have been so singularly focused on, seema, on the fed for the year once they are out of the picture, the fed, out of the picture, what then the markets have to focus on something. is it china? is it europe is it energy >> one is earnings that is an economic impact from the very significant tightening of monetary policy we are expecting earnings to

slowdown through 2023. unfortunately, that is not good news forequity markets on the positive side, thereglob. china's reopening should have an impact not just on china's economy, but think of asia and parts of europe which will benefit from china reopening there could be opportunities outside there as well. there are some good stories and hopefully as you said the u.s. monetary policy one is something we won't necessarily be talking about at this time next year >> do you think it is real china is making all these moves, but, you know, pardon me i feel we have been here before and they lock things back down this time kind of feels a little different, seema do you think it is real? what is the global market implications of kind of a quote full china reopening >> it is right to have a few

concerns this will be messy and chaotic as we have seen in so many other countries, when you open the economy, the infection rates soar which is what we have seen in china the last couple weeks given the policy officials have been clear about the intention to reopen, it is unlikely they will go back on it you are seeing the change in the narrative. one example is starting to compare covid to the normal winter flu there are changes to the narrative to suggest they are intent on reopening. when we get to the point and it takes time as you get into warmer weather where they feel comfortable and at that point we should see a positive economic impact for china parts of asia, especially something like hong kong and singapore and malaysia and indonesia, they will be key beneficiaries. in addition to that, germany is another key trading partner with china.

wit we expect that growth impact from china reopening >> not only investors hope china reopens, but the people of china hopes that china reopens to get on with their lives. seema shah, thank you. we will see you again. we are just getting started on "worldwide exchange." when we come back, we get more on china and if this really is the beginning of the major rebound in the world's second largest economy. after a big break, the musk stock sales are back you will tk out emalabth only if you stick around we're back right after this. undc y you for a payroll tax refund of up to $26,000 per employee, even if you got ppp. and all it takes is eight minutes to find out. then we'll work with you to fill out your forms and submit the application. that easy. getrefunds.com has helped businesses like yours

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welcome back china's economy and importantly its people is taking a big hit from the failed zero covid policies case in point, look at the numbers. retail sales down 6% in november nearly double what most economists expected. industrial production down h sharply from 5% in october investing in machine and building is down big new construction fell 40%. urban unemployment rising to 6%. after all, it is hard to have a functioning economy if millions of people are scared are or not allowed to leave their homes it looks like things may finally be changing for real this time

let's talk about what it may mean if true and get insight from jenny yin good to have you on. do you believe there is a real and maybe permanent change happening with the chinese leadership around covid? >> this is a real change and tweaking and defining of covid policies especially as we head into the important meetings. the central conference and two sessions in march. these are all very important annual and beyond policy meetings that sets the tone for china's policy indeed, the current reopening is here to stay new challenges will arise particularly with the wave of covid. it will be a very bumpy road to

full recovery. >> it appears that president xi jinping and maybe the rest of the chinese government, jinny, is not only focused on covid, but also seem to be doing a hard turn on economic growth. doing things like loosening up restrictions for property developers implementing a mini stimulus, as you will -- it appears and correct me if i'm wrong that they are focusing on economic growth in the year ahead would you agree with that? >> i would agree with that assessment what you highlighted in the data overnight and recent weeks and certainly in november we have seen a stark warning with the economic activity. the covid restrictions absolutely weighed on sentiment. particularly on investment and consumption. i think beijing has absolutely

reassessed the situation given the set of evidence and, of course, the slow and gradual reopening means that production, investment and consumption would start to resume. now, what is important going forward is that the current accommodative monetary policy and supportive fiscal policy will remain. that is the key and fundamental principles going into 2023 now, market sentiment is very much accelerated beyond f funda fundamentals fundamentals are still lagging it will catch up as the current wave of covid is being digested and, of course, if we don't have stalls in the reopening, it is very much likely that activity will start to catch up with sentiment. >> i saw some stuff or reports that, you know, tried to

indicate what would happen with oil demand, et cetera, if china ended up fully reopening what is your take on china's impact on things like the global markets, global inflation and oil and natural gas demand how much would it really change the calculus in the world, jinny? >> certainly commodity markets have already reacted on the back of china reopening and the latest new measures. however, there will be cautious optimism settling into the market as we realize this reopening will be a bumpy road ahead. of course, also, chinese suppliers of commodities as well and those involved in the supply chain production will have already started restocking inventory. the oversupply and inventory cycle in china will adjust

a lot of caution against overoptimism that said, there are plenty of opportunities, particularly in the sectors mentioned already recently yesterday that guidelines on boosting domestic consumption in the years ahead was released and very much the sectors encourage the high-end manufacturing sector and the tech-related innovation driven and new information. all of the sectors will ben p f -- benefit positively from china reopening. >> and the secondary with the billions of people getting their lives back jinny yan, thank you for the time still on deck on "worldwide exchange," retail opportunity for you. consumer stocks your next guest says might make you money in this economic environment. that is next as dow futures are

down 300 we are back right after this

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welcome back to "worldwide exchange." maybe you warrnt to go back to d because the dow futures are down across the board nasdaq down 1.3% dow futures off under 300. this continues the week ending

we had with yesterday's market a long way to go a negative morning what about the laggards? we will talk about tesla in a second and baidu is a leading laggards o ox oxymoron i don't know let's get the latest on the severe winter storm moving across the united states let's get to frances rivera with more from new york >> the winter storm is on the move after dumping snow in the upper midwest. tornadoes damaging homes and businesses in louisiana and officials say 30 people are injured as a result of the dangerous weather. tornado watches and warnings continued in the south we are next. the man accused of assaulting paul pelosi will face

trial. david ddepape assaulted paul pelosi in their home in november he shouted where's nancy she was on the east coast at the time of the attack paul pelosi was injured in the home invasion, but is expected to make a full recovery. now turning to the world of pop. mariah carey making dreams come true for one fan it was this tweet that setoff the miracle. she was traveling over 5,000 miles to see mariah in new york. it caught the eye of mariah. how would you like to sit in the front row? she was there. she called it the experience of a lifetime brian, mariah is playing msg again tomorrow i was checking tickets you get up close from the stage and the price is $3,000 for a

pair see who she invites this time around. >> come on that seems like chump change compared to taylor swift tickets. it is $3,000 to stand outside garden and put your ear against the door for swift >> brian, don't go there it is a sore spot in my house with my daughter the trauma alone >> you are frances rivera. thank you very much. >> sure thing. >> all i want for christmas is for you and your family to get taylor swift tickets i know, a sore spot for a lot of people we need eight taylor swifts going around the world. still ahead, your morning rbi with wall streets most loved stocks next year and some of its ggt ilth year. stick around

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not done yet jay powell and the fed hitting you with another rate hike saying more still needs to be done next year to get inflation fully under control. >> it is good to see progress, but understand we have a long way to go to get back to price stability. why is tesla tanking shares cut in half in the last few months we speak with an analyst who says more pain is to come.

and today's rbi says a loved stock may not make you money we will get that and stocks to watch next year on this thursday as "worldwide exchange" rolls on right now. welcome or welcome back, everybody. it is 5:30 on the nose here in the east coast of new york i'm brian sullivan thanks very much for joining us. let's jump right in and see how things are looking post fed. not looking good major averages ending lower yesterday as the federal reserve did what people expected and raised rates by .50% now extending the losses dow futures down 300 nasdaq down over 1%. you know what also has been moving lately? maybe it escaped your attention. the dollar u.s. dollar index just closed at a six-month low.

and the first time that has happened in six months dollar was rocketing higher in the last six months. dx has dropped in 90 days. that is a massive move for the dollar it impacting oil and commodity prices and everything else keep an eye on the u.s. dollar speaking of going down, have you been watching shares of tesla? they lost nearly half the value in the last 90 days as well. closing below $500 billion for the first time in two years. keep in mind, tesla at $152 and change was a $400 stock a year ago. adding insult to injury and making investors weary, filing

overnight shows elon musk sold $3 billion of tesla stock. that marks the second such sale since buying twitter he has to raise the money to buy twitter somewhere. he has been selling tesla. musk sold $39 billion of tesla shares since the stock peaked in november of last year. where does tesla go from here? joining us now is craig irwin. he has been a bear on tesla. craig, thank you for joining us. two ways to look at this investors are angry. if you bought above where it is today, you lost a lot of money maybe bears like you would say, yeah, it's down, but it should never have been valued where it was in the first place by the way, at one point, i believe, it was worth more than ever car company in the world combined >> there have been days where

moves in the stock have exceeded the value of historic names like general motors tesla has been he gre -- egregiously overvalued the optical illusions they are seeing on a frequent basis are a root cause behind the catastrophic accidents that kind of exaggeration and press on hyperbole to drive valuation has been reckless and irresponsible. we are consistent saying tesla is not worth more than toyota. tesla does not have anything that toyota doesn't have already and couldn't market. toyota is a more conservative

company with a long term vision of protecting its balance sheet. different risk appetite than tesla. what is going on now does not surprise me and my price target is $85 tesla did a tremendous job creating the electric vehicle market and you will see a lot of things continue to evolve. there will be great growth, but growth is under performing competitors are doing really well you have a problemable new ceo e next couple months it can't be good for the stock >> your price target indicates almost another stock can we get musk's attention for twitter. the left loved him now the left hates him he has like 75 other companies i have not heard anyone say,

craig, how teslas are selling. everybody talks about everything with tesla but if anyone is buying a car how are sales doing? >> sales are great 45% growth this year is tremendous, right? that is the electric vehicle market that is the market that elon musk created he forced everybody else into the game sales are great. it is not about how great they are. it is how they are versus expectations expectations were higher they are having to discount to drive volumes in the fourth quarter. they cut the price in america by $3,750 per car that's half of the expected federal subsidy we are getting from the i.r.a in china, the price cut is larger it is 5% to 9.5% to stimulate december delivery,

they cut production numbers in china by 20% the growth rate is lagging versus expectation it is an expectation game. the second derivative that drives valuation things are slowing down for tesla. competitors are eating their lunch. competitors are coming out with more attractive models tesla is facing real issues and risk it hasn't faced the last few years. >> i saw my first rivian suv literally yesterday. i'm seeing all these cars. what's that? oh, it's a lucid air craig irwin. bear on tesla. we appreciate the view $85 target have a great day let's step outside of the markets for a moment and check on the top headlines you may have missed. you may have just woken up you know what is not shutdown,

silvana? we are wide open and ready for business >> ready, brian. update you on news let's start with the house approving the short-term measure. nine republicans joined democrats in approving the measure to give congress more time to finalize a larger, longer-term spending package the measure now heads to the senate where leaders plan to bring to the floor as soon as today. the s.e.c. voting to move forward with the biggest proposals to overhaul the u.s. stock market in nearly two decades. proposals include trading firms to execute trades from retail investors to boost competition and offer investors better prices the plan calls for trading increments and access fees on exchanges lowered. and warner bros. discovery will restructure the costs

following the company raising expectation with writeoffs of $1 billion to $3.5 billion. brian. you know what that means higher prices. >> wait. prices are going up? oh, yeah for everything official data -- true story, silvana. i went to -- i don't want to name the brand a fast food restaurant with my son the other day. i got a chicken sandwich i have had this sandwich many times. not only has the price gone up -- if i tell you the chicken sandwich shrunk by half. it was a shot. >> i noticed smaller portions at certain places same price >> everything is turning into white castle for twice the

price. silvana henao, thank you very much i'll throw the chicken sandwich under the bus or the clown that represents the company oh, wait consumers s gearing up for e final days of the holiday season and we get a fresh read on retail sales due out at 8:30 this morning. analysts expect a slight dip. let's check in theretail outlook with brian nagle senior analyst at retail hard lines at oppenheimer brian, do we have any indication right now what the holiday and christmas shopping season will look like? i have no clue >> good morning, brian look, what is interesting here and i'm talking about this with my clients it is that time of year. so far, the data we see and we get it piecemeal suggests that the holiday season is off to a decent start

we saw a number of reports from various sources saying over black friday or thanksgiving weekend and cyber monday sales tracked well in store and online we have companies with the reporting recently and most of them are talking up the beginning of the holiday selling seas season we get the retail report today to answer your question, the holiday season seemed to start decent >> you know, we talk about retail, brian, we're cnbc. we talk about walmart, target, home depot i get it those are the big names. they are owned by everybody. to me, that is boring. i'm a bit of a lunatic let's change it. we have a lot of viewers right

now and a couple of them -- hi, josh -- at a lifetime fitness running on a treadmill right now watching this show i texted him the other day i asked if it is busy. he said it is packed at 5:45 in the morning. lth is the name you like do you believe that gyms are back >> absolutely. if i wasn't doing your show right now, i would be at lifetime getting my workout in lth is my favorite economic reopening stories across consumer they have a phenomenal product entered the new york market more aggressively with great locations. lifetime is doing in the gym space is similar to a company like home depot and home improvement many years ago bring in a better and more inclusive offering to a fragmented, not that great of space. lth is one of our names here for

2023 >> and then very quickly, what is my kid's favorite store five below they want a ten-pound back of mike & ike what do you think about five >> a number of key points here that support our thesis on five below. they continue to open stores they have a value for consumers looking to save money. five below offers that opportunity. >> they gave you the audio hook, brian. the hook with the music. see you at lifetime. kudos to everybody out grinding on the treadmill at this hour. thank you. on deck, how have some top analysts topics done this year the hint is not good me'll talk about it and layo out

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all right. today's rbi is about stocks and opportunity and maybe a good investing lesson it is the time of year when analysts rollout the top picks ones they consider very high conviction they get a lot of attention.

do these best ideas always work and make you money the answer not this year. there are away too many single stocks to single the out, we will highlight best ideas going wrong this year. we will not pick on any specific analyst. it has been a rough year for most stocks. some of the top picks for this year have been total dogs. we just picked out some of the random names out of many we could. disney lost 38%. amazon and their top pick lost you half your money. restoration hardware same thing meta and rivian. meta down 62% and rivian down 76%. those are just five out of a bunch of stocks. these are terrible returns

we realize the overall market was down big this year, but good grief! there were some winners among the top picks. you can imagine the group. mostly energy. those who dared to go long and strong on oil and gas were rewarded look at this, slb up 70% cheniere up 62%. conoco phillips up 57%. there is vertex pharma up 43%. there may be more out there. let us know. these are the stocks that we have been tracking by the way, the median return of a best idea stock was a drop of 20%. that's not good. all right. enough of this year. it stunk what about next year

we are putting together a new list shoutout to michael. you are doing a great job of collecting this data i'm freeloading off your hard work there are too many names to fully name, we picked out the ten biggest stocks by market cap which have popped up on the endless top pick list. if you are in the car, it is alphabet, amazon, tesla, nvidia, some company called comcast. you go, comcast. raytheon, netflix, qualcomm and boeing just a small slice of stocks that popped up on best ideas list so far. those are some of the big names that wall streets loves heading into next year i hope that is random but profitable we will find out2 nt 1mohs from now. we're back ifn a moment

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welcome back it is time for the "wex wrap up." ftx executive told regulators tha that sam bankman-fried likely funneled funds to alameda research he also made large political donations. tesla stock down as elon musk is selling the stock. the first time in two years under $2 billion. home builder lennar is warning of a slowdown in new home orders and forecasting a weak first quarter next year. the senate is banning a bill from using tiktok on government devices. the measure will head to the house. and china retail sales fell

and industrial production missed forecast by 1%. finally, goldman sachs is considering sinking the bonus pool this year as they look to rising rates and slowing economy and possible recession next year let's wrap up what to watch today. several pieces of economic data rolling out at 8:30 with the jobless claims and retail sales numbers and more ahead of that, central bank decisions overseas ecb and the bank of england set to make their rate calls in a few hours. we are not done with corporate earnings adobe will release its numbers as well. let's talk about the macro setup and bring in reese williams at spouting rock asset

management and brian raling at with wells fargo institute brian, first to you. your take on the fed is it done or close to done raising rates and has the bond market already priced everything in >> i think the bond market p priced most things in. the fed will continue to go here for a little bit they will debate going 75 or 50 more depending on the data then it is a long pause. >> you know, reese, we talked aboutgoldman and many others looking to cut costs i hate to say this is cutting costs the new growing earnings >> i think it will be an important factor in 2023 i think revenue will not grow like they did this year and the year before. i think the companies that control their destiny by cutting

costs will out perform >> you know, rhys, i'll come back to you. we look for opportunities. i laid out best ideas did terribly this year along with the overall market, except oil and gas. everyone hated oil and gas a year ago all they have done is print money. i think opec will depend the $75 price point. they made that clear are oil and gas stocks still a good investment going into next year >> i know it is tempting to rotate out given how well oil and gas did relative you are an expert, brian, in this area. i do think you have the combination of china coming back and i do think, obviously, everybody got sick in beijing the last couple days over the next month or two, everyone will get covid and then they will be reopening and you will be partying like it is 1999 in beijing and shanghai by february or march. i think the oil demand story in

china will improve and help the fact that the u.s. is in a mild recession and europe worse than a mild recession that is point a. point b is opec will defend this price and lastly, you have biden refilling the spr under $70. you have a put on oil. as long as the price of oil is here to going up, the oil stocks work >> big balance there europe is in big trouble china coming out we will see how it weighs on it. brian, back to you yesterday or two days ago, at this hour, my brain stopped working. we talked about expectations for the equity market next year. they were low. most people say we will get a recession or major slowdown. if that is the case, what do we do does our audience watching right now -- do they buy two-year treasury bonds and let it ride

>> it is not the worst idea. you have to be opportunistic back in october with the ten-year bond at 4.25%, you were adding maybe you will have another chance i think, also, as you go into next year with the periods of stress where high yield spreads widen out, those are periods to add. i think you want to look for opportunities to add and lock in yield for longer periods of time the year or year and a half from now, the fed funds will be a lot lower. the fed will be cutting rates and you will be wanting those yields locked in rather than the short-term rates that will be rolling off in a year or twotwo years from now >> rhys, give us your elevator pitch in 2023 -- i should invest

in the markets because >> i think people have gotten out of the public markets and put new money into private markets. both equity and debt 2023 could be the turn around for that we had a big correction on the debt and equity side i think you did in the have the same in the private market valuations blackrock is up 10% this year. good mix of industrial reits publicly traded are down 25% are there assets that are different? my point is you have the opportunity to improve in the public markets at least relative i think that will help >> all right we leave it there. i'm getting the hook with the music. that's when you know they are done they play the music in my erar a well

rhys and brian, thank you. everybody out watching and listening, thanks for watching "worldwide exchange. tomorrow, our insider buying segment is back. there is some interesting names on the list this week. trust me see you here for that. see you tomorrow "squawk box" is next to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. real-time ticket upgrade! meaning... i get to meet my childhood idol. that works. i named my dog joey fatone. when your customer experience works, the world works. that's why the world works with servicenow. you want to see something cool? xfinity rewards is how we go beyond saying thanks.s so we're going to spread the joy this holiday season, the xfinity way. take your trusty sidekick to see puss in boots: the last wish what's a puss in boots? he is me.

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good morning stock futures pointing to steep losses the day after the fed rose rates new details about the arrest of sam bankman-fried filing shows ftx co-ceo flagged potential fraud to regulators days before the firm filed bankruptcy. a new s.e.c. filing shows elon musk unloaded $3.6 billion of tesla shares this week. it is thursday, december 15th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we are live from the nasda