a positive for the market, i suppose we shall see eric, i appreciate your time very much. be well. we'll talk to you soon that is eric jackson mmj. i'll see you all tomorrow. have a great evening that does it for us here in "overtime. "fast money" begins right now. right now on "fast," holiday blues, stocks selling off this year's rise the fed is going to tip the economy into recession retail all caught in the down draft. we'll hit the charts to see where we could be headed plus losing stream sadd supported tier is off to a slow start and is it time to pull the plug on media and social stocks. andp later, selling spree, elon musk sells and is that the reason why he's selling and not

being distraction by twitter i'm melissa lee and we're live on the deck karen, dan, nathan and guy. we start off with a deep red sea on wall street the nasdaq dropping 3% falling in red for the week. the s&p shedding nearly 2.5% the dow down as much as 950 points clocking the biggest decline in more than three months all three indices on pace for the worst december since 2018. and take a look at the moving yield. the ten-year dropping back into 3.4% range it is down nearly 90 basis points from the october high so does today's action suggest the fed could tip the economy into recession just yesterday i think we were across the board saying the market should have had a much stronger reaction to the hawkier fed speak coming out the fed, dan. >> those compressed time frame when that announcement comes out

and then the presser and team taking their time to process it. we see this sort of overnight reversal of maybe that first move that is been going on for a very long time. but you're question is, mel, does the fed's hawkishness put thep u.s. economy into a recession. i think the con ses us is there will be a recession in 2023 and we've been debating this for a while. what is priced into stocks we know it is priced in yields the 10 year at 3.5 is suggesting that in my opinion the stock market up 17.5% in two months from the mid-october lows was not suggesting that. it was suggesting a bit more optimistic and i guess when i look at today's price action, some of it should have happened yesterday, some of it should have happened today but down 2% in the s&p fe feels like a big day but we've come a long way. so if we were down near 3500 in the s&p where we were in october, and we had the fed speak that we had yesterday and

the cpi print the day before, i would say we might not have been careening to new 52-week lows because at that point, down 25% or so in the stock market maybe it encapsulated that negativity about what could come in 2023. i think it is about where we were two months ago. where we were just a couple of days ago and i think we probably, this is been my call for a while, we're going to test those october lows sometime soon. >> i agree with dan. i was surprised at yesterday's reaction he was quite hawkish there was no ambivalence there i thought the economic data out today was cool, right. retail sales were definitely lower than expected. that actually would have been sort of a counter bullish sign it is working, the economy is slowing. it is not that he wants that to happen but that is a necessary by product of trying to tame inflation. so ip was surprised that it was up, surprised that it wasn't down yesterday and surprised how

much it was down today. >> really. guy, what do you make of today's action >> well yesterday we led the show and i said if you had told me all this was going to happen and i would say the s&p is down 150 handles and it was down 125 and if you do the math, it would have been close. it makes perfect sense in its context of what we heard yesterday. this is not monday morning quarterbacking i was scratching my head on the show, what are people looking at here now it is coming to fruition and we talk about recession, again i'm not an economist but i will tell you it is my view that recession is the desired out come of this federal reserve that is what they want to have they'll never say it when you connect dots, you need the unemployment rate to go to 5% and that is when they pivot but all of those thing are -- everything to get us there will create tremendous headwinds. >> and we get up there and might

not even see a pivot just see rates hang out there for an indefinite amount of time grasso, you've been calling for a rally to end the year. i guess that is up in smoke at this point. >> i was also the first one that you called mr. r. for recession. i think we are in recession. i think we're going to get a recession. i think it is a consensus thought that we're going to sell off. so i think we're all in the same camp that in 2023, the markets will be lower. once what is going to happen between now and then so we did have half of a face route where we were up 120 handles but the market changes so quickly that you don't know so maybe it is up in smoke where we're burning day light. it would have to be an aggressive rally to get to 4350 in the s&p i don't know i don't think any of us know what news flow comes out right

now. but we did -- no one mentions ecb today. i mean, that is -- it was powell and then it is ecb so it wasn't as if we just had a strict delay on powell we had a constant news flow foed as well. so let's give it another day or two and see where the smoke clears. >> if you look at the big names that were leading to the downside today and apple is given up a little bit and we know that it is acted well compared to some of the mega caps here. but amazon looks like it is poised to make a new 52-week low. i know karen just mentioned the retail data, doesn't speak well for them we'll talk about digital ads an that is cyclical and consumer-related we talk about the airlines all week and some of the things that we're hearing out of them. there is just not a lot of great signs for the u.s. consumer right now. and specially the time when we're just starting to feel the

tightening economic conditions working through the economy. and for all year, you know, the first rate hike in four years came in mid-march and we're talking about the lag effect and why did the fed get aggressive for the four consecutive meetings raised 3% there is what we're going to feel in the first half of this year so whether it is a recession that is over in two quarters, whether it lasts longer than the average one. whether the stock market going down 35% on a recession. we didn't get there yet. there is a little recession. i think there was explained away this year. but one that is broad base and consumer led is the one that i think that hits the stock market and probably gets us back to towards the october lows. >> semiconductor and et cetera are finally acting truly sick lickly but the question is how much further do they have to go if the ten-year yield continues to drop at we're at 3.4, 5% or

thereabouts, that continues to drop that is not a good signal. that tells me that the re-set on earnings goes down sand then another notch and another notch, the farther the ten-year yield goes down. >> and that is a great point, mel. and carter worth has talked about the potential for yields to go lower, the dollar to go lower. the stock market to rally in the short-term and then sort of follow suit and that is exactly what you're outlining. yield going down is not bullish. don't fool yourself single-digit think that magically 20 year yield is below 3.5% is some panacea about the stock market stocks have gotten expensive again. nvidia is ground zero. tim mentioned last night, the stock is right over 70% since the october low. it is now trading close to 15 times risens that is once again expensive it is not to pick on nvidia. there are a lot of stocks that have bounced significantly that still face the same headwinds

they does the entire year. >> i always say, it is not a monolith, right. we have names that are still expensive that have come down a lot but they still have a lot to g go and google, to me, that is a very different story than i understood advertising slowing down and that is a very different story than high flyer like an nvidia or -- or any of the igv stocks. >> so do you think if alphabet has corrected for the exposure to advertising for its heavy ties to travel for instance, if we believe that travel is going to pull back, they have a heavy exposure to travel because it was a reopening stock for some time because of the exposure to travel so the reverse is true but that is all -- that is all in there >> i feel like at this point, when you back out the cash, a lot is in there. a really lot is in there. >> we just talked about consumer oriented name. look at the outperformance of some enterprise focus names like microsoft and oracle they've really outperformed the

nasdaq off lows. and i guess if this starts as a consumer-led recession and we're talking about lower savings rate and higher credit, working into the system, eventually, that is the last thing that is the thing that the fed has not achieved yet we still have unemployment below 4% and i think they may do the mission accomplished thing up wr -- upwards of 5% and it may help their job as inflation readings come down and that is when the enterprise demand falls off and that is also the next push lower for the stock market in 2023. >> let's dive deep into the rates with jim bianco. great to get your take where do you think ten-year yields go in all of this >> i know when we started 2022, if i asked where they would end the yield, i don't know if you would come up with number.

but where do you they go in 2023 >> well, think the big issue with the long end of the yield curve is the short end of the yield curve. now 10 year yields are around 850 and below the two year yield. if the fed is true to their word and they're going to raise rates to 5% and hold rates at 5% for most of next year, you can expect that the two-year yield will probably go above 5%. it usually trades higher than what we call the terminal rate or where the fed stops with the yield curve being so inverted at this point, it is almost like it is going to -- the short end is going to force yields higher. so where is the 10-year note i think it is forced higher by higher short rates the fed will get what they want. they want higher rates they want tighter financial conditions and the short end of the yield curve can kind of drag the long end higher. not a whole lot higher

it is not going to go to 5% or something like that. but it could make another run at 4 sand probably go above 4%. >> jim, so if you know, i know and the rest of the world knows that the fed usually is slow to act and long to stay whatever they did and there is a lag effect. how come they haven't learned their lesson and why will they stay too long? >> well, they have got -- to answer your question how have they learned a lesson, they're relying on new research that the lag effect is much shorter than they think because of forward guidance and it is technical talk but they think the lag effect is a lot shorter. the second thing is, their focus right now is inflation so while a lot of your discussion earlier on was about whether or not we're going to have a recession, which is real growth, whether or not that will impact earnings, they're focused on prices and jay powell wants prices to go down.

and if it takes a recession to get prices down, it takes a recession to get prices down you won't say it but that is where the focus is right now >> so jim, is there a limit to inversion? to how much -- how much that spread between the twos and the tens because i'm wondering if the ten-year could go down and that in and of itself, the deeper inversion and the opposite of that, if that would be the forecast for a recession >> yeah, well, first offal, the inversion is at a 41 year extreme. no, there is no limit, there is no mechanical rule that said it can't keep inverting but if you any about other develops rates and i'm thinking about europe, short rates in europe because of the hawkishness made a new high for the year that tends to impact our market too. so if they're trending higher, that is another poll in our

market and that is happening all across their yield curve as well so no, yeah, we could go minus 150 or minus 200 there is no reason to do that. but when you're at a 40-year extreme and it is already screaming recession because it is so extreme right now, i think if the next move in short rates is higher, it kind of drags the long end screaming and kicking higher as well too. >> jim, thanks jim bianco guy, what do you think ten year gets dragged higher >> i respectfully disagree jim has forgotten more about this than i know but one of the things i'm positive about is this is going to 1% inversion. and i thought it would get there at the 3.5% in the ten-year or 3.5% in the ten year and 4.5% in the two-year and we're getting close. so i think that is where we're headed ten years will stay anchored because growth is so slow and

two year is going higher because inflation is out of control and i think that will continue for the future. and let's look at where markets are going right now. chart master carter worth is with us. so what do you see >> well, what a tough game humbling for all of us always trying to be as good or bad as our last trade. but let's look at the charts ab figure it out together i have a long-term chart of the s&p. and you'll see the 2007 peak and we have the financial crisis low and if you were to accept that channel, and it is the channel that the market ascended in from the '09 low, we blew out through the top ever so slightly and now we're back at the midpoint and the question remains, do we ultimately have to get the lower band and that lower band is numbers that you all just discussed, that 3200 plus or minus level. and even if you don't go that low, do we even get into the

lower band and i think yes so, lower remains the thinking least from this seat let's go closer to here and now. so there is the past two, three years. and what is quite remarkable and happy for those who could draw a straight line, the market has adhered to those lines, putting in some arrows and you'll see how well, the market on the way up and down literally has responded to the penny to those trend lines and it is failed yet again in the past three to five sessions so the here and now chart, the up close and personal chart of the s&p, the question is, and you'll see that here, do we fill the unfilled gap at 3818 from november 10. that is only about 1% to 2% lower and i thaink that is a conclusion and you'll see the break there trend and to my eye, it is -- if

you could use the word inevitable but it is inevitable that we'll get to that cap. three, eight, 18 as a minimum. i think i have two yield charts here if you want to take a crack at that. this is the ten-year yield with no drawings or judgments or no lines. let's put some in. and what you see here is that here too, respecting trends, minding ones lines is important. that we bounced off that trend line beautifully and then once you undercut, which is happened, you want to be on the other sides of things. i'm in the lower yield and dollar camp and stocks are going to resume their down trend that has been in effect since jan 4. >> carter, you said the s&p that we'll hit, that is a stop in a longer term down trend, correct? >> i think that is has to be the conclusion or said differently, we need that trends are characterized by

counter trend moves, when you're advancing, you have sell-offs. if you're declining, since jan 4, we've had counter trend moves rallies and is this anything other than that. we raled from the june 16th low to the august high and it fail and then we had the october 13th low and then we started failing t three to five sessions ago and to the peak of three days ago is a counter trend rally. >> carter, thanks. carter braxton worth of worth charting a move down on a percentage basis a move like we saw today >> i'm looking at a chart and you see the -- first of all, the 3300 was a level that stuck out to me around the pandemic lels, pre-pandemic levels. we didn't get that far that is the level i was calling for. so now when i look at this chart,er steps at 35,003,200

so if you draw your restrarest -- retracements to the all-time high, the levels of 3200 are probably in the cards but when >> and just they're probably in the cards. that is the technicals, the fundamentals speak to something different. all of the head winds to earnings growth are the thing. so which which we finally companies taking away the guidance and strategists bring the top down guidance, that is the thing that probably causes the levels to be violated and it is not being doom and zbloom, it is putting the pieces of puzzle together and take out the pandemic and recession that we this there, we haven't had some sort of psych toll deal with so again, the s&p making a reversal on one of the counter trends that carter just called it, is not the end of this thing because there is no easy fix for the economy in the near term because we haven't had the absolute effects of all of those rate hikes

i know that sounds rezund ant but the market has a conundrum, only down 18%. >> i don't want to be doom and gloom, but we might not see the full effects on a rolling basis. the lag effects, and you'll gradually see it work its wau through. there is no bell rung when companies have re set earnings expectations and are done with that the market has to grapple with the rates remaining higher for longer, those effects are resid you'll and continuous, karen >> they will but i think we'll also see, as things sort of work their way through, we will see inflation come down. when we get to that positive interest rates, i don't know we're far, far away from that right now. >> coming up, stock sending us stuff. what some retailers are asking suppliers to pause product

shipments, the inventory overload and binging beat down, netflix having the worst day in months so should your portfolio be streaming elsewhere. don't gofu anywhere. "fast money" is back in two. get refunds.com powered by innovation refunds can help your business get a payroll tax refund, even if you got ppp and it only takes eight minutes to qualify. i went on their website, uploaded everything, and i was blown away by what they could do. getrefunds.com has helped businesses get over a billion dollars and we can help your business too. qualify your business for a big refund in eight minutes. go to getrefunds.com to get started. powered by innovation refunds.

just look around. go to getrefunds.com to get started. this digital age we're living in,

it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting. you want to see something cool? xfinity rewards is how we go beyond saying thanks. so we're going to spread the joy this holiday season, the xfinity way. take your trusty sidekick to see puss in boots: the last wish what's a puss in boots? he is me. with buy-1-get-1 movie tickets, on us. in theaters christmas. join for free on the xfinity app. xfinity rewards. our thanks. your rewards.

welcome back to "fast money. shares of netflix sinking more than 8% on reports of the ad supported tier is falling short. the company goes as far as issuing refunds to advertisers the stock putting in the worst day since april leading the losses in the nasdaq 100 index what do you do with this one, grasso >> yeah, so this is a pretty interesting chart. when you look at the 50-day moving average has been supporting this going back to october. and if you want to really take it back, you could get to july where the 50 day has been supported. the stock actually stopped ahead of the 50-day. it actually looks like a buy until it breaks the 50-day to me right now. >> a buy the report is pretty concerning. if you believe it, they cite five agency executives saying that in some cases netflix has only delivered 80% of the

viewership that they promised. they're only paid when they deliver that viewership. guy, ad supported tier was supposed to be the catalyst and it is not. >> yeah, it was one of the catalysts without question the other catalyst six or seven months ago was valuation and we talked about and carter brought this up as well, the potential for netflix to fill in the gaps that it had on the upside and those gaps were filled when we traded north of 300. and i know what steve is looking at here but i would submit if you want to get granular on this one, it could do a back and fill all the way to 240 which would be a 50% retracement of the recent low this spring and the high we just saw so i don't think netflix -- it is not out of the woods, but i still think that some of the best days lie in store i think it is probably going to back and fill first. >> i agree with guy there. it is coming along which is great i love to buy more but it is still pretty expensive that ad tier, they got that out

so quickly >> that is true. >> and so it wasn't quite ready. and when they had to give money back, it said that because a lot of the advertisers were like we have to spend for christmas. and they said, we'll just give you the money back we won't make goods. we'll give you the money back which is sort of a good corporate citizen thing to do. they do that from time to time. >> they're playing for the long time. >> and if people in the pandemic, if people weren't using netflix, they say turn it off and not pay the bill i want to give them a pass because their good at execution but valuation is still too high. >> any excitement about that ad tier and what they would capture and cracking down on the password sharing and i'll just say this i have to goo back to the year 2000 or some banks in 2007, '08. where you've seen a 75% peak to trough decline from an all-time high the way stock had from the january to the lows in may

so the fundamentals are in flux and the other story is not about what they're trying to capture, it is also the headwinds, the digital ads. jeffrey did a downgrade of snap and trade desk and talking about the secular or near term head winds to a strong secular trend but right now i think the stock up nearly 90% from the recent lows is probably like -- it is probably a battleground and i would suspect guys 240 is in the cards in the next few months. >> there is more "fast money" to come here is what is coming up next. >> announcer: a bah humbug holiday. so much for stocking stuffers. retailers are so overstocked they're sending stuff back what that means for your gift hgift giving season. and plus an ev reprieve. tesla shares sitting idle after a rough couple of months but is there more pain ahead the traders are kicking the tires on that one.

you're watching asmoy,"ft ne" live from the nasdaq market site in times square. we're back right after this. at fidelity, your dedicated advisor will work with you on a comprehensive wealth plan across your full financial picture. a plan with tax-smart investing strategies designed to help you keep more of what you earn. this is the planning effect.

welcome back to "fast money. fewer than ten shopping days until christmas. yes is a count down clock. and they wish suppoliers would stop sending product the average amount of inventory held by the 20 biggest public apparel companies was up 26% in the third quarter compared to pre-pandemic levels according to a report by allied partners. and retail stocks feeling the pain, in order stom and kohl's

seeing -- bah humbug it said on the the prommer. karen, this means great zroubts for consumers. >> it means not great margins. >> not for the retailers. >> for the retailers and probably good for tjx. a lot of inventory and very good prices so, um, there is some really bad inventory situations out there i think, you know, target, i think is one of them so we're going to see very promo promo promotional christmas. i hope nike has got a handle on it so i think the good names will end up being okay. >> right guy, your smirking i don't know why >> it is just his face. >> we talked -- >> resting smirk face. >> we were talking the other day, i definitely -- it is better to have a resting smart face than the other one that i'm not allowed to say

but lululemon, which i think we've all championed as one of the great, and they are, their inventory was up, wait for it, 84% year-over-year that is against like a 28% sales growth so maybe tiny tim could get himself a couple of the lululemon boxer shorts that i wear but it the no good they all suck at it. none of them have navigated this particularly well. so, it doesn't seem particularly well for some of the rerts in terms of the stocks. >> you actually sold. >> i did i hated that inventory, i feel like their going to have to be promotional. and one that hasn't traded well but in good shape is footlocker. >> the bright side is that maybe this will all be cleared out by spring and this will put them into inventory that isn't old and isn't sitting around and could be full price. >> i guess that is the glass half full. the other name that karen in

addition to t.j. maxx, nobody talks about ross stores. they benefit from the same dynamic that a t.j. maxx would benefit. over inventories and capturing all of that glut but a name i've spoken for about years now has been capri and this has bounced from 38 recently all the way up to 58. and in a straight shot this is also a premium brand so if you're in retail, if you're in retail, stick to the premium brand names. so not all of them are going to suffer from that same supply glut you can get granular on the names. so you either go really high end or really low end. >> coming up, shares of tesla holding up in today's sell-off so it the ev pain coming to an end. plus a rough day for road block shares tanking after reporting weak metrics but could the move give optionsrars a l tdeevel up.

the details when "fast money" returns. already been born. it could be you! wow. really? of course, you'll have to eat your greens, watch your stress, wear sunscreen... but to live to 150, we're developing solutions that help doctors listen to your heartbeat while they're miles away, or ai that knows what your body will do before you do. cool. introducing elevance health. where health can go. what if you were a global bank who wanted to supercharge your audit system? so you tap ibm to un-silo your data. and start crunching a year's worth of transactions against thousands of compliance controls with the help of ai. now you're making smarter decisions faster. operating costs are lower. and everyone from your auditors to your bankers feels like a million bucks. let's create smarter ways of putting your data to work. ibm. let's create

♪ ♪ well would you look at that? ♪ ♪ jerry, you've got to see this. seen it. trust me, after 15 walks it gets a little old. i really should be retired by now. wish i'd invested when i had the chance... to the moon! [golf ball bounces off rover] unbelievable. ugh. [ding]

welcome back to "fast money. another check on today's big market sell-off. stocks dropping on increased fears the fed's rate hikes are

pushing the economy into a recession. retail sales coming in worst than expected, dow dropping more than 760 points. s&p and nasdaq dropping sharply. lennar and horton and align technology leading the gains sand a couple of shares of guard ant health dropping after they detected 38% of chloro rectal and less than color guard, a very big move there after hours. tesla only one of the positive stocks today it is one still one of the worst performers down almost 12%. the ceo elon musk dumping $3.6 billion worth of stock this week and doany moses is founder of moses ventures he is shorting tesla still, not enough for you? >> not enough, yet not enough yet.

>> what more is there here >> it is still a a $500 billion company and i don't think the judgment just tie that evaluation if i was as good as elon musk was here, i woo be taking a vac aig because he's old $40 million over the last few months as we move lower. >> even when you put the short on when he made the bid for twitter, he would be in good shape. as you see the story unfold, what makes you so confident that there is more downside here. is there something very concerning to you that is happening here. >> i think the stock price has been about his brand and we've seen that get hit. and if you're a fundamental investor and you like tesla, great, but this valuation, there is a lot of headwinds coming yes they were early in ev or the best and maybe so are the best if you want to call it that. but a lot of competition is coming and we're going into a recession. so this is not immune from a normal chick cycle and i still believe it is still very rich. >> just to be really clear, you

didn't short the stock today, right? it is not a big move here. you've been short and had a fundamental reason for the short and i think that as i've been talking to you over the course of the year, what happened with elon, it is about him not being at tesla when you think about how much of that $500 billion market cap is in his association with it, is the twitter thing and some of the other stuff that is going on in and around it, is that a big part of it because if he is a big part of this valuation, and he's not likely to maybe have the same focus as he had in years past, is that part of it. >> he's running three, four, five, very large companies and there is a lot that he has to deal with it and if he's getting margin call to sell stock, whether he'll replace some of the debt, $3 billion we heard about in the papers, we haven't seen a reason yet that he sold over $7 billion in stock over the last couple of weeks and months that is on top of the $33 billion before and it still remains to be seen.

and if your a tesla shareholder and i have nothing against being long, you're getting frustrated because hi his attention span is being compromised and maybe the business isn't growing like it used to and that is the reason to say short but i'm not added here that is not a smart thing to do. it is down a lot but put it in perspective. it is a 15 for 1 split in the last five for one and the three for one. this is still over the equivalent of a 2000$2,000 on an apples-to-apples perspective and and i think when stocks go down, it makes you take a better look at the fundamentals. >> and then later, the question about just pe's in general, and i'm wronderring how i think about the markets now in light of what the fed did yesterday and these -- supposedly high growth stocks or valued like

high growth stocks. >> it is very frustrating. people that watched the fed yesterday and saw that they're not seeing what we're seeing but again this is a fed who said inflation was transitory now they're erroring on the other side but i think the noise of the basis points, 50 or 75, i think qu -- we're going to shift will there be a point where they stop yes. will there be a cut? yes. and do they get over 5%. not a chance but i think we'll have a lot of back and north but the shift is moving to fundamentals. >> and are there any new shorts out there you're excited to be or are you hanging long? >> pricing power in this type of environment and they're always those and i tell people if you're looking at an etf, stop and find the individual stock. if you're looking to bank index and in the xlf, do i want to own

bank of america or wells fargo, but it goldman sachs trade well, sure so i think you need to be a stock picker and it excites me that there are opportunities on long side that i think will come. >> danny, thank you for coming by danny moses. guy. >> it is easy to see why brad pitt portrayed danny moses in the big chill. that is a handsome man right there. >> he's blushing. >> thank you >> you brought back the guest by the way. anyway, your trades. >> i'm sorry, i heard guy say big chill. i thought it was the movie so if i look at chart of -- if i look at the chart at tesla, you have to go back to november of 2020 to find support here. so i agree it can go lower. but i feel as if every time we count musk out, he pulls another

rabbit out of the hat. so i wouldn't be buying it tomorrow but maybe around 135, 140, i just think that what mark fields said the other night that you could get a tesla now in six days or order one and build one and get it in 30 days. i think that is a tail wind because he's cutting through supply chain issues that are hurting most other companies so i'm not willing to say it is over for tesla just yet. >> let me just play devil's advocate is that not a head wind that, wow, there is no line. you could just get one in six days. >> like no one wants one >> i get it. but there was so much talk about it and i get it. we could go from a zrdrought toa glut that is the same thing that happened with semiconductors but once, as mel issa used the analogy of retail, once people get back to spending and recognize the sky is not falling as quickly as we thought it was,

they're going to want to make bigger purchases again and tesla seems to have the stock to -- for them to buy. >> the only thing i'll say is we just spent a whole block talking about what high inventory meant and we also saw morgan stanley bringing down estimates for demand for ev in general we know how important china is for tesla right now. high supply for these guys right now is an absolute disaster for this story in my opinion an i think you could overshoot that 140 level if that is the case any time soon. >> brad, put aside your quick take on where tesla is. >> we've been saying it is at 150 for quite sometime it got down today to 150.23. so you could get one of the bear market bounces in a name like we saw a few months ago but danny is spot on and he's been spot on for a while so i think if you do get that rally, you sell that sucker

again. >> coming up, road block sitting hard, is it the game over. that trade is next and more on the question crypto landscape. why our next guest is pointing to the gbtc and the roll in the crypto collapse. the details ahead when "fast money" returns i promise to serve, not sell. i promise our relationship will be one of partnership and trust. i am a fiduciary, not just some of the time, but all of the time. charles schwab is proud to support the independent financial advisors who are passionately dedicated to helping people achieve their financial goals. visit findyourindependentadvisor.com ugh, this rental car is so boring to drive. let's be honest. the rent-a-car industry is the definition of boring. and the reason can be found in the name itself. rent - a - car? you don't want a friend. you want the friend. you don't want a job.

you want the job. the is always over a. that's why we don't offer a car. we offer the car. ( ♪♪ ) sixt. rent the car. osisko development is a premier gold mining company with a ( ♪♪ ) goal of achieving mid-tier gold producer status with the company's advanced-stage projects located in north america, headlined by the cariboo gold project in bc and the tintic project in utah. osisko development

at adp, we understand business today looks nothing like it did yesterday. while it's more unpredictable, its possibilities are endless. from paying your people from anywhere to supporting your talent everywhere, we use data driven insights to design hr solutions and services to help businesses of all size work smarter today. so, they can have more success tomorrow. ♪ one thing leads to another ♪ ♪♪ for skin as alive as you are... don't settle for silver. harness the power of 7 moisturizers & 3 vitamins to smooth, heal, and moisturize your dry skin. gold bond. champion your skin. you're puss in boots? tno habla english.nd moisthabla espanol? skin. i don't speak spanish either. who is this guy? i'm puss's therapy dog. wanna rub my belly. no, hard pass. puss in boots. rated pg.

welcome back to "fast money. road block shares dropping nearly 16% after the company said revenue greej plunged in november boo bookings grew in the mid single-digits and they reported revenue per user falling as much as 9%. they have been two of the biggest loser in the video game fluft with more tan 70% each year grasso, quickly on road box, what do you think? >> this opens up, the only support i see in these names, forget about the fundamentals, because i never got the stock ever so it is way over my capability but 21, 23 looks like support. but there is no -- there is nothing fundamentally that means that it should stop at 21 or 23. >> there is one options trade that in agreement with grasso, more down side in the stock is

what it said mike khouw has the action on that. >> really heavy volume in the names today. almost four times average daily put volume and we saw the january 22.5 puts and traders risking close to 3% of the stock price on a bet that it will drop at least 20% that is looking right at the levels of support that steve was just talking about >> thank you, mike for more "options action" tune in tomorrow at 5:30 eastern time. up next, the ftx collapse and wh imes att anfor the bitcoin trust. stick around more "fast money" in two thinkorswim® by td ameritrade is more than a trading platform. it's an entire trading experience. with innovation that lets you customize interfaces, charts and orders to your style of trading. personalized education to expand your perspective. and a dedicated trade desk of expert-level support. that will push you to be even better. and just might change how you trade—forever.

because once you experience thinkorswim® by td ameritrade ♪♪♪ there's no going back.

just look around. ♪♪♪ this digital age we're living in, it's pretty unbelievable. problem is, not everyone's fully living in it. nobody should have to take a class or fill out a medical form on public wifi with a screen the size of your hand. home internet shouldn't be a luxury. everyone should have it and now a lot more people can. so let's go. the digital age is waiting.

the ripple eskss of ftx being felt the bitcoin trading at a record discount this week nearly 50% could gbtc be another potential negative catalyst. for more let's bring in the ceo of la meda wealth management he was at cross river so you're familiar with the space. first to the gbtc. it has trading on the premise that that discount would close once they converted to an etf.

this is a whole other story when we talk about 50% discount what does that signal? >> there is a lack of confidence because gensler denied the conversion that is one. two, there is also concern that dcg, which is one of the largest owners of gbtc because they have some money owed to other creditors. >> it owes its subsidiary loans it $2 billion. >> that is correct that is right. so, genesis lending was the world's largest crypto prime brokerage. it took in short-term liquid deposits from the gemini earn program, and then it made long-term illiquid loans to hedge funds and it blew up, why,

because they were betting on the discount to close. and financing that with leverage from what? genesis lending. the parent company of genesis and gray scale also bought $780 million worth of gbtc they're making the same trade and they borrowed from genesis they bought an average purchase price of $40 now it is $8 unrealized lost of 80%. >> so can they hedge any of that loss some amount is bitcoin going down and so is the premium >> that is correct. >> are there short bitcoin is there any way to lessen the situation. >> dcg's financials are private. they could attempt to hedge that but they were betting on the discount closing. >> or going into a premium. >> that is correct and the premium had been in place since the inception from 2017 to 2021 from between 30%, 35% and that

is what started this whole dynamic and the first leg of contagious, the first come you could buy bitcoin and commit to deliver in six months to the gray scale trust and you could catch the premium at the time of delivery now fast forward to 2021, peak bull market, and billion dollars finances on bitcoin and people are betting on the super cycle thesis for bitcoin and the discount closed because prior to coin base, gbc was the most convenient way to access bitcoin in your brokerage account with other on-ramps its easier to access and then widen. >> so this is a game of musical chairs. >> absolutely right. >> what do you think happens you don't have any skin in the game right now but you have seen a lot of these -- you've seen blockfy's

books. you're in a position at cross river to be familiar with these companies. >> i won't comment on the books. but, yes, in my role at cross river, i interacted with blockfy, three years capital and a number ever these institutions and you could see that they want short-term funding from a bank but they're really capital markets businesses that are taking deposit, these deposits are not fdc insured but they look like high yield and they're turning around and lending to hedge funds but they have a veneer of a neo bank and that is not sustainable. and of course blockfy incurred a $100 million fine from s.e.c. >> we have to leave it there thanks for coming on >> up next, final trades

so, you're 45. that's the perfect age to see some old friends, explore new worlds, and to start screening for colon cancer. yep. with colon cancer rising in adults under 50, the american cancer society recommends starting to screen earlier, at age 45. i'm cologuard, a noninvasive way to screen at home, on your schedule. and i find 92% of colon cancers. i'm for people 45+ at average risk for colon cancer, not high risk. false positive and negative results may occur. ask your provider if cologuard is right for you.

time for the final trade steve. >> -- worked back to 100. >> guy >> brad pitt i mean, the dhi, mels. >> you know he's watching. karen. >> brad pitt >> brad pitt of course. >> okay. volatility in the i can't believe it is here but i think

it should be a lot higher. so vick. dan nathan, i agree with that i'm long vix calls. >> you're with karen. >> so we're talking about stocks in sectors that might do well and might not do well in a height rate environment, i think xlp do flot do well in for watc. see you back here tomorrow at 5:00 "mad money" with jim cramer starts right now my mission is simple to make you money. i'm here to level the playing field for all investors. there's always a bull market somewhere, and i promise to help you find it. "mad money" starts now >> hey, i'm cramer welcome to "mad money. welcome to cramerica other people want to make friends. i'm just trying to make you some money. my job, not just to entertain but explain how days like this can happen so call me at 1-800-743-cnbc or tweet me @jimcramer. news flash jay powell does not work