tv Worldwide Exchange CNBC December 16, 2022 5:00am-6:00am EST
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it is 5:00 a.m. on wall street here is the top "five@5. waking up with a black eye after the worst day since september and futures are lower again. big losses for big tech as nasdaq does something for the first time in more than 20 years. elon musk suspending the twitter accounts of half a dozen journalists over concerns for his personal safety. details ahead. shutdown averted for now senate passing a late-night
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spending bill to keep the lights on for one more week. and in china, reversal of the covid seazero policies sparg a surge in cases and what it means for the country's growth it is friday, december 16th. this is "worldwide exchange. good morning, good afternoon or good evening happy friday welcome from wherever in the world you may be watching. i'm brian sullivan thank you for getting up early or staying up for us let's get to the markets and your money coming off a rough couple of days we have that graphic and ominous animation and you know it has been a tough couple days dow futures down a bit nasdaq futures down 1% in fact, all of the major averages indicating a drop of about 1% or maybe more right now.
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again, long way to go. fair values in the green right now, futures are down. it is very early always take futures at this hour with a gigantic grain of sea salt now we had a big down day yesterday. dow jones industrial average falling more than 3% s&p 500 down 2.5%. both seeing their worst days since early november for its part, dow closed down more than 700 points for its worst day since september. as always, context is key. keep this in mind. yeah it has been a lousy couple of days the s&p 500, believe it or not, is actually up about 8% since october 1st. meaning right now, we're on pace for one of the best quarters for stocks in a long, long time. look at yesterday and the day before oh, my god we're doomed then you realize we're higher than the late september lows
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two ways to look at it one thing that was interesting about the stock selloff. a couple of things were interesting. all of the headlines said recession fears sent stocks down really bond yields didn't move at all 10-year treasury is exactly where it was 24 hours ago. one month ago and three months ago. bond market tends to lead the equity market. if stocks sold off because of recession worries, certainly don't tell oil oil hung tight we are seeing the price of oil pretty much where it was this time yesterday maybe slightly lower it is up a couple of bucks up a couple of dollars from where we started the week. just keep those things in mind there are a lot of things that go with stocks that don't happen with bonds or oil. that's my point.
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cryptocurrencies are down across the board. price of bitcoin is still holding steady above $17,000. let's get a check of the action in asia and an lo lot of on the screen as well. arabile gumede does in the london newsroom. there is a little green on the screen behind you, arabile happy friday, by the way >> yeah. it's a good friday to you, brian. that is the only bit of green we are seeing in asia, hang seng going into green territory across the board with the biggest loser across the asian atmosphere yesterday it is better today this negativity follows from the ecb decision yesterday as well as the bank of england and swiss national bank all hiking interest rates by 50 basis points you see negativity following through from the u.s. markets to asia and european market and
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going into negativity. we look at the index right now this is why they are all down. the president of the european central bank christine lagarde saying the sentiment is not to give up on the inflation fight, but continue to press on we saw pmi numbers come out today. yes, better than expected. still in contractionary territory. fight against inflation is not over in fact, some of the ecb council members are saying 50 basis point hikes may be possible in february as well as march. the first quarter still more hikes are possible down the market goes for now a lot of it based on the interest rate action >> all right arabile, thank you very much have a great weekend. let's get to the top headlines happening on this friday with silvana henao. good morning, silvana. >> good morning, brian let's start with twitter
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it is suspending accounts of half a dozen journalists all of whom covering the platform and elon musk elon musk says it is because they were reporting the location of his private jet something he felt was a risk to his family safety. the move comes a day after twitter changed rules surrounding accounts that track private jets including one owned by musk. a new wave of covid is sweeping across beijing in the abrupt roll back of the zero covid policies the city reporting visits to the fever clinics is up from a week ago. jpmorgan chase saying the country's rapid reopening could result in a severe near-term down turn as surge in cases could create a health shock that outweighs any boost of economic activity from the relaxed restr restrictions. senate approving the
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one-week attention averting a partial government shutdown that was scheduled at midnight on saturday it gives lawmakers one more week to necesgotiate the fiscal b >> we have another week. deja vu all over again >> it is >> it is "groundhog day" in d.c. all the time we will see the shadow i don't know if that is good or bad. silvana, thanks. let's get back to wall street that ominous grachphic again s&p coming off the biggest percentage drop in more than a month. index now down more than 4% for december still more than 30% from the all-time high. like we said at the top of the show, actually on pace for one of the best quarters ever. joining us now is craig johnson,
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chief market technician at p pipler sandler it is 2:30 in the midwest and 12 degrees. thank you very much for getting up we need your views this week as stunk yesterday was rough. i try to make the point at the top of the show we're up 8% on the s&p this quarter how do you read the market set up right now >> brian, thank you for having me on. thank you for the opportunity to drive a bronco in the snow which was slightful delight delightfu. we have to put this in context we had cpi come out this week. we had the fed decision. then today, we have a huge options expiration taking place. this market has been close to $4 trillion in options expiring
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today. this market has been stuck in the trading range. when you dive below the surface, brian, what i see happening is i have more stocks with uptrends than downtrends at this time $25 million market cap we chart the s&p and we saw the down downtrend off the january highs. it is different this time. i have to make the observation that i got 6 of 11 s&p sectors above the 200-moving day average. i got more than 50% stocks in an uptrend. we may get a pullback and setback here, brian, but from here to year end, we get the santa claus rally and we will see the market find footing. 50-day moving average will rally up from that >> you know, the one thing we have been consistent on in this program because we learn from
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very smart guys like you is market structure is such a key aspect to where things go. in the near term and medium term, options, set up, shorts, long, things like that and the price of bonds didn't move and oil didn't move. i found this blaming the market yesterday on quote recession fears because other things didn't move. it sounds like you are saying market structure i.e., option set up. short and long positions contributed to what we have seen this week. >> absolutely, brian i also add into the discussion when we talk about recession and if we think about when these recessions are actually declared, you are usually already in the recession by upwards of eight months. usually since most recessions
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since 1929, a majority lasted less than a year you have found the bottom of the equity market in the recession all but one. the odds would suggest if we are already in the recession, maybe a lot of the bad news is priced in let me add, if you come back and look at the money flow data, brian, there is $4.1 trillion in money market funds more than $1 trillion higher than pre-pandemic. if you look at the outflows of equities just last week and week before, you have a huge amount of money some of the largest dollars coming from equities and going into money market funds you had since the marloch lows of on 200 if he peopeople wanted to sell, already have done it. >> if you care about your money,
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we care more about what happens 12 months from now or 6 months from now a lot of calls for short-term weakness in the first and second quarter and the market goes down and rebounds i think that is your view. that is jpmorgan chase and others views what do you see as the medium and longer-term trajectory of the s&p? >> brian, this is a little dr. seuss. "hop on pop. we have a hop and we have a drop and end with a pop we have more room to go in the next 30 to 60 days i think at that point in time, we get into the next fed meeting and guidance that comes out and you can set yourself up with the market drop. that drop creates what we think could be a right shoulder low in terms of the market. we think as we look forward into the end of 2023, we see a price
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objective of 4625. we think there will be decent upside if you think about it from coming off the lows, you could be 20% to 30% off the lows timing and these shows, brian and your comments will be helpful for your listeners to stay abreast of what is happening with the market. >> it sounds like we have to hold our nose in the first part of the new year. >> i think yes we will get this setback and correction that's really going to be, i think, the final washout just looking at price and thinking of historical recessions and timing of the recessions. again, brian, the market usually bottoms all but one time since 1920 while you are in the recession. that's what we have to keep in perspective. >> that could have been an rbi market usually bottoms going
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back 100 years in a recession. craig, we appreciate you driving that bronco in the snow. we appreciate it craig, thank you very much have a great day >> thank you all right. when we come back, have borrowing costs finally peaked your next guest maybe has good news on rates. plus, a closer look at big tech after nasdaq does something for the first time in 20 years. later on, ftx back in later on, ftx back in bankruptcy court hello, world.days aftee damning testimony on the hill. we are glad you are up with us we are back after this [clap] now, as businesses we can blame and shame. or... [whistles] we can make a change. [clap] we can make work, work for our communities. create more equal opportunities.
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welcome back good friday morning. let's talk treasuries and bonds and borrowing costs. all of it remaining relatively flat following the fed rate hike decision following the hawkish tone a number of bond investors maybe not buying what the fed is selling or they already sold what the fed is selling. thursday's weak economic data will soon pivot to a less aggressive policy over rising recession risks. what does it mean for costs going forward? let's bring in priya here with td securities. great to have you back on.
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stocks tanked yesterday on recession fears and bond yield didn't move. the bond market leads and does not follow what is the bond market telling you? >> i think the bond market is clearly in the recession camp. the flattening of the curve and inversion of the yield curve and 10-year treasury from north of 4% to now even below 3.5% over the last month i think the market has been grappling with a couple of issues the fed suggesting that they can slow down the pace i think it has improved market perception of where the end point of the hiking cycle. we are debating 4.75 or 5.25. there is greater understanding of where the fed may stop. if you look at the long game, the fact it is leading in the market recession some time in
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the middle of next year. that move is justified it is early. the data is strong the consumer is resilient. i see the slowdown happening at the end of 2023. i think the market is forward looking and pricing in recession and lag back of everything the fed has already done >> not all recessions are created equal, are they? you have the great recession of the financial crisis and then you have 1990 with the downturn which was relatively brief what do you think of the bond market is saying not about the recession, but how severe and long it might be, priya? >> i think i would agree with you. i think it is more likely to be like the 1990 recession or 2001 recession. shallow. we don't see the same sort of
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leverage in the system we saw in 2008 it is likely to be a more shallow recession. the bond market is pricing in 200 basis points of reit in 2024 where i struggle the a bit is the length of the recession. i think the view is a short and shallow recession. i think the fed may really be constrained. i don't agree the market is pricing in reit cuts next year if inflation is not at 2%, the fed will struggle theo provide policy support it will struggle to cut in 2024 and it is early to price in rate cuts next year it is much longer lasting recession than the market is pricing in and that would be difficult for the market to absorb we are used to the fed put and fiscal and monetary support. i think the inflation back drop b because we expected inflation to be sticky with wages and service
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inflation. that is when it constraints policy support we might be in for a tough 2023 because we look for the policy support. the fed will stay resolute with the inflation problem. >> we had a tough 2022 hoping for a better 2023 it doesn't sound like we are going to get it. we will see. priya, happy friday. i appreciate your view have a great day and good weekend. see you soon thank you. >> thank you all right. you're very welcome. still on deck here on "worldwide exchange," we have an exclusive interview with the ceo of cmh. n, easy-to-use tools, and paper trading to help sharpen your skills, you can stay on top of the market from wherever you are.
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welcome back ftx back in bankruptcy court this morning as the disgraced founder sam bankman-fried sits in the bahamas jail. tech reporter mackenzie sigalos has more >> brian, the next hearing at 10:00 today. it has many line items and complaints related to the ftx signage that is everywhere miami is actively trying to terminate the $135 million
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naming rights for the ftx arena. what i am looking out for is the motion of the news outlets by the new york times and ft. this group objected to the name of ftx account holders if the judge rules in favor of the motion agreeing to release names institutional and individual, this is the huge deal largest accounts have balances over $200 million there is a legitimate right of who had money on ftx especially if it belonged to money managers blackrock and sequia were part of the firm. some accounts may have yet to disclose the full exposure to ftx. there is precedent here which was disclosed in the madoff and lehman bankruptcies in 2008.
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this is similar in the cryptocurrency space objections to the motion are due at the hearing none on the court docket so far, brian. >> victimless and not being revealed arrested the day before congressional testimony. a lot of red meat in this story. that aside, there is a report that sam bankman-fried is again requesting bail. of course he would any chance he would have any luck getting bail? >> two days ago, a judge in the bahamas called sam bankman-fried a flight risk and denied bail request ordering him to be held until february a source familiar with the matter told reuters yesterday that sam bankman-fried is trying again with a direct appeal to the bahamas supreme court. this bail application will be heard before that court on january 17th it is unclear whether they will
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be more sympathetic to sam bankman-fried's case >> talk about the claw backs you have been reporting. great reporting. we know you haven't been sleeping clawbacks. we saw it with madoff. not comparing the two directly financial fraud trial things to see where this goes. there were clawbacks with madoff assuming there are some, let's hope there are, how much roughly could ftx be look to re-capture through the bankruptcy process >> one tool available in the bankruptcy process is the claw bark w clawback provision to see if anything was improperly transferred or property given away that should be part of the bankruptcy estate the trustees have the ability to
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claw t clay claw that back some are fair game if the feds can establish the funds used from fraud which we know from the indictment that was unsealed on tuesday and they believe the alleged fraud goes back to the start of the exchange in 2019. there is the very specific 90-day window that is important to clawbacks any party who received funds in the three months prior to bankruptcy, trustees would be reviewing all regular payments made in the course of business over the 90-day window i'm told one issue for the agent lead and a-list celebrity endorsers in addition to others tied to the exchange, whether they are characterized as insiders with the connection to the debtor and factors in how clawbacks work and who is on the hook to pay that money back.
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this process will likely take years, brian >> yeah, are they just endorsers or insiders or partners? we saw it with voyager and other firms as well. we forget madoff went quickly because he basically spilled his guts to his kids and they went to the feds. sounds like ryan salame, former insider, may have done the same thing? this didn't get found out. it sounds like there was a leaker ryan said we're doing bad things. >> we heard two days before ftx put in for bankruptcy, he is speaking to regulators in the bahamas and alerting them to potential fraud transfers that were happening he also, salame, the co-ceo of ftx. he said three people were authorized sam bankman-fried is one of the three people on the list
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right after alerting authorities and regulators in the bahamas, goa he got on the plane to d.c that is the first case of insider of ftx speaking to the authorities. >> apparently had a real estate and restaurant empire in massachusetts. this is unbelievable write the screen play. 80 people will try to write the show for hbo max mackenzie, thank you ahead, buying into massive weakness your number one insider buy this week revealed. there is your chart. do you know who it is? we have seen a lot of buying we'll give you the name coming up (snorting) (clattering) (frustrated grunt) i need some sleep. (groaning) (growling) (silence)
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welcome or welcome back. it's 5:32 on the east coast. if you have to be somewhere at 5:30, you are late get going. there's that graphic again go back to bed stock futures extending losses this morning we are seeing dow futures down 400 points nasdaq off more than 1%. future selling has been picking up steam a bit the last couple hours. that follows the broad based selloff yesterday.
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nasdaq 100 down 3% s&p down 2.5 it has been a tough week i will say this. context is key i know it is day-to-day. the s&p 500 is actually up more than 8% this quarter we are on pace for the best quarter. we have a couple weeks to go, i get that, we can wipe it all out. overall, a good run since october 1st. not a good run for tech. it took it on the chin nasdaq and nasdaq 100 with out sized moves. everybody from apple to microsoft down yesterday down again today as well check out this stat from dow jones industrial average i'm annoyed because this would have made a great rbi. it could still be. yesterday marked the 84th time the nasdaq has moved 2% or more either up or down this year.
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up 2%. down 2%. 84 times why does that matter well, it is more than the 83 moves in 2008 and most since 2002 when it had 101 such swings we've got how many trading days left in the year probably not 17. we won't break the repocord closing in on the record for volatility let's try to make sense of this with sara kuntz. good to have you on. the stats with the volatile year your clients will care 6 or 12 months from now. what are you telling them? >> i'm telling them especially when you look at tech and tech was the tip of the spear up and on the way down. tech was the first historic
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highs with the remote work shift and layoffs and 52-week lows we will see tech in the stocks remain consistently at the front of the market movement they are not a monolith. snap and meta and pinterest and all social media names have a lack of user engagement. that is different from apple with the chipmakers and meeting demand people are not buying new devices and they have supply chain issues in china. these are not all of the companies having the same problem, but everybody is hurting across the board >> yeah. it has been a terrible year for stocks and bonds as well combined bonds and stocks is another rbi. one of the worst years ever for both asset classes let's look forward and be optimistic there's a country rock band
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called the wild feathers they have a song called "every morning i quit drinking. i bring that up because new year is approaching i'll lose 100 pounds next year and look like ryan reynolds. it never happens in my mind, it happens you have a trading thesis. new year new you. >> you look like ryan reynolds to me. >> that's it why there are stocks attached to that january 1st dream >> exactly it is dating and dieting and self improvement i'm looking at bumble. previously senior adviser there. the biggest online dating day of the year is early january. everybody has the resolution this is the year they will find somebody and that reflects in the numbers. another one i'm going to keep an eye on is duolingo this is the year they will get
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bilingual. those are the trades we look at as we wind down 2022 and hit 2023. >> we are going to look better and speak six languages. it will be an amazing year what is your biggest fear for next year, sarah what is the risk that isout there that you worry about the most recession? escalation of ukraine? worsening of the energy chrrisi? what keeps you up at night >> all of those things and we are also looking at increasing likelihood of default in china or africa which owns a ton of debt to china. there are global risks that aren't priced in yet 2023 will be a tough year. especially the first six months. >> it seems to be the theme as well you know, we will focus on personal and family happiness. how about that the markets could have a rough go at the beginning of 2023.
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sarah, we appreciate you getting up early thanks for coming on "worldwide exchange." have a good weekend. talk to you soon all right many time now for the weekly insider buy segment. we highlight the top five stocks bought the most from the c-suite kpikt texecutives with their ow money. we are counting you down five to one. are you red any we are let's do it. number five, illinois tool works. $308,000 buy from the executive. stock four is vf corp. $490,000 buy the first buy in the insider seven years on the board stock number three is a new name varonis systems. a new york city based data security company they had a $500,000 buy by the cfo. he was also a buyer in november,
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but was a seller before that, according to verity. now to the top two insider buys of the week. number two public storage $744,000 buy by the ceo. his first since becoming the insider six years ago. the second time on the insider buy list that stock down 20% this year. the most insider buying of the week is a name you probably heard about on cnbc earlier this week it was our mystery chart it is sofi technologies. a $5 million buy by the ceo. shares have been tanking stepping up with a note of confidence he bought $2.3 million in may and in june. he has been an aggressive buyer this year. by the way, of the 11 analysts who cover sofi, average price of $7.30. stocks under $5.
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hard to believe this was a $28 stock shortly after the ipo. maybe it has the naming the stadium jinx they have the name with the chargers where some team called the rams play. illinois tool works, vf, varonis, public storage and sofi we do this almost every friday on "wex." not happening much approaching year end coming up, the true pulse of the economy and truly global company. cnh industrial ceo scott wine with the outlook of recession fears globally and the great year with that company's stock. results from the latest cnbc technology confidencsueye rv we are back in 60 seconds.
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welcome back exclusive findings from the cnbc technology executive council nearly three quarters of members say their company is protected against cyber attacks compared to last year that protection has come at a cost with 87% of tech leaders are spending more money to protect business from ongoing threats. no surprise there. let's talk about a company that doesn't get the attention it should. they have more than 70,000 employees operated around the globe to help feed the world it is cnh industrial you probably know them better by the brands new holland agriculture. case construction. the stock has been rocking lately up 42% just this quarter. scott wine is the ceo of cnh the former ceo of polaris.
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he joins for tech day where they are rolling out new things in aeg and construction scott, you are a navy guy and early riser. you operate globally your company does not sleep. you have a truly global view agriculture, commodities what are you seeing for the world in the next 12 months? >> brian, we are positive. i look at the global economy and i expect recession the aeg markets are strong we see reasonable demand in europe for the portfolio new north america, the back lolog is great. you talked about the nature of the company. we are positive about next year. i don' i don't know how long it will last we expect to continue growth
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gh going into 2023. >> you came from a purely discretionary company polaris. can the u.s. or world have a macro recession, but commodity markets and aeg markets remain strong in the face of that even goldman sachs is continuing to call for commodities super cycle, scott >> we look at historical data. we trade on the aeg cycle than economic cycle right now, soft commodity prices remain strong because of the war in ukraine largely we do see ongoing farmer economics. that means farmers don't want to pay taxes and buying equipment is a great way to make them more productive and sustainable it tends to be good for us used demand is up. not much availability. we are feeling good about the
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overall cycle t it means inflation is high and demand is high for the consumer as well. overall, it remains good. >> i got back from europe last week covering the energy crisis last week, scott europe is the world's third biggest economy. we almost never talk about south america which everything i'm seeing about south america says it is booming. maybe with the exception of venezuela, they are doing really well can you pinpoint pockets of strength is brazil going to be a big winner >> in the third quarter, brazil was the strongest maerrket we have a good team there. we see good strength they are concerned politically right now which is causing a bit of anxiety with customers and dealers. nonetheless, we believe the
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long-term trends the south american market is strong. china imports 70% of their food. i was there in september a lot of optimism in the south american market for sure >> we got to get down there. buying a bunch of lng and natural gas. we don't pay enough attention to them scott, you are there on technology day sorry we could not be there. i want to see an electric combine. you said it could happen no way a farmer will drive an electric combine apparently there is. can you electrify the farm equipment? >> that was on full display at tech day we had a t-4 all electric mid sized tractor with a lot of autonomy features. showing the value we can bring
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to farmers where especially in europe where you mentioned energy prices are so high. perhaps more than electricity because electricity is battery technology for our larger equipment with combines is more difficult. i read something about solid state batteries coming around. that is probably a decade away we know in the meantime we can replace hydrolics with electrics. hybrid type for the larger equipment. mostly we were excited about launches the first ever liquid natural gas methane tractor. allowing the farmer to capture methane from the slurry and clean it on his farm and use it for the machine and generate electricity. creating a carbon negative footprint when you are using that bio-methane excited for farmer economics and sustainability >> i love that i got the visual, scott.
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more time to pass the federal package to fund the government for the year. and adobe with better than expected results and guidance for the quarter. adobe is up. ftx founder sam bankman-fried making a new application for bail to the bahamas supreme court after a judge rejected his request earlier this week. a hearing on the matter slated for january 17th harvard announcing the new president. claudine gay is the first black p woman to run the school. and trump with a new nft collection selling out in about 12 hours. let's talk about the markets. we are pleased to be joined by
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victoria fernandez good to have you back on all right, we round out the year and volume goes down what will we look like in three-to-six months? where are we headed in the new year >> brian, you have been talking about it in the show today we are headed down in the three-to-six month time period we do think we will see recession some time the middle of next year that is the six-month outlook. a lot driven by earnings coming now we have gotten past the fed meeting and now we shift attention to earnings. earnings expectations have come down when you have goods prices coming down, but wage prices going up or continuing to stay higher, you've got to have productivity for the margins to do well. we are just not seeing productivity right now i think we're going to have a tough go in the first couple
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quarters next yeear brian, you were talk about the bond market and not reflecting the items from the fed meeting we have come down 70 basis points on the 10-year high the inversion you get is fed funds to two-year fund we have a shallow recession middle of next year. >> fair enough, fernandez. i was talking about yesterday's move stocks fall 7600 on the recessio fear bond market leads. it doesn't follow. it sounds like the move it has been making last few weeks is the tell, is it not? if yields keep going down, it may not be telling us something good >> i think that is absolutely right. you take the signals there with the 3-month/2-year inversion and
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you see the recession story coming equity markets are reflecting the hawkish tone from the fed and ecb and bank of england. they are all talking about being more hawkish and higher for longer it sets up globally for issues everyone thought chinareopenin is the boost to the economy, but it is really not they will continue to struggle the as covid cases go on the rise and people self isolate >> okay. cross mark global. you have to advise your clients to do something. we think the equity markets are going down what do we do? is literally cash king is money going in the sock drawer buying cds brazilian bonds? what looks attractive? >> not brazilian bonds
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we are not going there of we have also been extending duration on the fixed income side we have been short duration for a while. it has been good for us relative to the index extending that duration with yields lower here for a bit. you don't have to be sitting in cash you can still take advantage of what is going on in the market we trend on up days and buy on down days. you don't have to take large swings in the market we advise against that build your balance portfolio put a little bit of cyclicality in the portfolio you have to take advantage of that and be selective. lowe's is the name we added recently you look at housing. the chart has bottomed and will do better. be selective and finds opportunities. don't just sit in cash you will miss the up side. >> well said you miss all of the good days we
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talked about good day, victoria, whenever you're on. thank you. victoria fernandez it is like 4:40 in the morning love it. we will leave it there that's it for us on a friday dow futures down 1.2%. nasdaq down the same it could be another rough day for the markets. we appreciate you being with us. " "squawk box" will pick it up next i'll see you next week on the noon show.
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more twitter controversy elon musk banned journalists who covered him. he said they posted links to his real-time location which he called in his words assassination coordinates. and the government kicking the can down the road for another week averting a shutdown it's friday, december 16th, 2022 "squawk box" begins right now. good morning welcome to "squawk box" here on cnbc we're live from the nasdaq market site in times square. i'm rebecca quick along with joe kernen and andrew ross sorkin. as joe mentioned, u.s. equities are under pressure at this hour. you are looking at 430 points down for the futures in the dow. nasdaq down
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